Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Guar Complex Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex

Research Team
Badruddin - AVP Research [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6129 Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6131 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Monsoon beats retreat after last-leg bounty
Sensex

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on September 23, 2011

WoW MoM YoY

16162 4865 49.42 78.72 1709

-1.217 -1.088 -0.303 -2.223 -1.719

-4.558 -4.305 4.438 -10.5 -5.673

-1.099 -0.683 8.472 -6.419 -9.499

-19.37 -19.16 9.579 2.915 31.89

After pounding most parts of the country with heavy rains towards the fag end of its four-month journey over India, the southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from the countrys northern and western including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal is almost 20 days behind schedule and should have started from September 1. Next week would see the withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some other parts of the country as well, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. Till yesterday, the country received rain that is around 4 per cent more than normal. This, when the IMD had in June predicted a cumulative rainfall across the country at 95 per cent of the long period average (LPA) implying rains should have been 1 per cent below normal. The June 1 Met office said rains during September would be somewhere around 90 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 15. This month so far registered rains that were a whopping 23 per cent above normal, countrywide. The actual rains till September 22 are even more than its predicted model error.
(Source: Business Standard)

Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

Source: Reuters

India needs to curb food wastage to tackle inflation: World Bank

The World Bank has said that South Asia's foodgrain stock management, especially in India, needs to improve to tackle inflation. In its focus on food inflation in South Asia, the bank said that high stocks have led to high wastage due to inadequate storage capacity and technology. According to World Bank's estimates, the Food Corporation of India lost 10-16 million tonnes of grains in 2000. The FCI's inefficiencies not only lead to high losses of the grains it handles, they also drive up the costs of food handling. Comparisons show that the FCI's handling and storage costs are significantly higher than those of the private sector. The increase in procurement has led to a significant increase in the fiscal costs of the system, the report said. (Source: Business Line)

Low growth of developed economies may affect India

The uncertain market conditions globally may have some impact on India in terms of trade and capital flows if the growth rate of developed economies continued to remain low, Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council Chairman C Rangarajan said on Friday. The growth rate in developed economies will remain slow and if it continues to remain at low level, it will have some impact upon India both in terms of trade and capital flows, he said. (Source: Economic Times)

Cooking oil imports may drop 7.6%

Vegetable oil imports may decline as much as 7.6% this year after a bigger domestic oilseed crop boosted oil supplies, a processors group said. Imports may be 8.5 million tonne to 8.6 million tonne in the year that began on November 1, compared with 9.2 million tonne a year earlier, Sushil Goenka, president of the Solvent Extractors Association of India, said on Friday. Imports totaled 6.86 million tonne in the November-August period, according to the trade body. Soyabean production in the 2011-12 season may increase to 10.4 million tonne.
(Source: Financial Express)

Cotton tumbles ahead of new crop arrivals

Cotton prices crashed by about Rs 4,000 a candy of 356 kg as demand from mills and exporters dropped ahead of new crop arrivals. The new crop has started to come in some areas of Saurashtra and it was traded between Rs 300 and Rs 700 for a maund of 20 kg. However, according to traders, quality of that crop is bad. Regular arrivals will start after Navaratri. (Source: Business Line)

Mexico seeks to double agri trade with India in a yr

Mexico, the biggest supplier of fruit and vegetables to the US, seeks to double its relatively small annual agricultural trade worth $75 mn with India through increase in exports of chickpeas, papaya, cactus and agricultural equipment. Besides, Mexico has signed a pact with India on enhancing research cooperation in developing high yielding varieties of wheat and maize. We seek to double the agricultural trade with India during next one year and we have started to work in several areas such as sanitary and phyto sanitary measurers besides the issue of taxes, Mariano Ruix Funes Macedo, vice minister of agriculture, Mexico said. He said the two countries could also collaborate in areas like agricultural machinery, spices, meat and poultry, seeds and grain and dairy products. At present, the balance of trade in the sphere of agricultural products is in favour of India. We are looking forward to work with India to bridge this gap and increase the volume of trade, he said. (Source: Financial Express)

Festival buying boosts turmeric

Spot turmeric prices increased for the third consecutive day on Friday as North Indian traders continued to place orders for the upcoming festivals. The price of the spot turmeric has increased slightly for the third day in succession in Erode markets, as traders have received fresh orders. The North Indian traders are placing orders for Durga Puja, but the prices in the Regulated Marketing Committee decreased by Rs 190 a quintal, due to quality, said Mr R.K.V. Ravishankar, President, Erode Turmeric Merchants Association. (Source: Business Line)

Forex reserves rise by $266 m to $316.76 b

India's foreign exchange reserves rose by $266 million to $316.763 billion in the week ended September 16, according to Reserve Bank of India's Weekly Statistical Supplement'. This rise in reserves, which is mainly on account of change in currency valuation, follows a huge decline in reserves in the previous week. In the previous week ended September 9, India's foreign exchange reserves fell by $4.29 billion to $316.497 billion.
(Source: Business Line)

Invest in agriculture, improve productivity to cool commodity prices

Terming high global commodity prices a grave threat, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has called for developing countries to increase their investments in agriculture to improve crop productivity. The recent commodity and food price rise and their volatility constitute a grave threat to economic growth and food security in our economies, Mukherjee said at a G-24 meeting of finance ministers on Thursday evening. (Source: Financial Express)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar futures declined sharply and touched a low of Rs 4613 per qtl levels in the first half of the trading session on Friday on global uncertainties, however, prices recovered and settled marginally lower towards the end by 0.24% at Rs 4666 per qtl on Short coverings. Global uncertainties have raised the concerns over exports of Guar gum in the year 2011-12, which had crossed 4 lakh tonnes in the fiscal year 2010-11. Clear weather in Rajasthan since last few days, has raised the hopes that harvesting of Guari would commence in the first week of October. Moisture content will be more initially in this crop. On Thursday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update that a seasonal anti-cyclonic circulation has developed over Rajasthan and neighborhood in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This is an indication that withdrawal of monsoon is now a matter of time. The IMD indicated that this could happen as early as within the next two days. The area under Guar cultivation in Rajasthan this season stands at 2.9 million hectares, compared to 3 million hectares last season. In Haryana the area under Guar has come down from 256,000 hectares registered last year to 215,000 hectares this year. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX (Jodhpur) Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Guar Gum SpotNCDEX (Jodhpur) Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl 4666 Rs/qtl 14671 Rs/qtl 14600 Rs/qtl 0.25 0.69 -0.24 Last 4574 Prev day 0.37

as on September 23, 2011 % change WoW 5.75 6.41 6.59 8.03 MoM 6.45 4.74 4.98 3.83 YoY 129.87 130.53 206.34 211.50

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Production & Exports

According to the first advance estimates, Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11. According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period AprilMarch 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Source: Telequote

In the FY 2011-12 export demand of Guar gum continued to remain higher with exports of 30,816 tonnes in the month of April 2011, up 51 % as compared with 20,376 tonnes in 2010-11 season.

Technical Outlook
Contract Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 4590-4620 14250-14350 Resistance 4715-4750 14800-14915

Outlook
Guar prices might extend the losses of the previous day tracking the weakness in overall global financial markets. However, in the short term (till September end) price may not fall sharply as lower stocks of Gum may support the prices till the new crop arrives in first week of October. Improvement in the area covered under Guar in Rajasthan and thereby hopes of better production might pressurize prices in the long term, once the fresh arrivals of Guar crop commence in November.

Guar Seed Oct Futures Guar Gum Oct Futures

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Pulses
Reports of withdrawal of monsoon by the end of the week pressurized Chana prices initially, however, prices recovered sharply towards the end as the medium term fundamental remain supportive for the prices. Spot as well as futures gained 0.61% and 2.06% respectively on Friday. Australian chickpea production is forecasted to be marginally higher at 3.85 lakh tonnes during 2011-12 as compared to 3.79 lakh tonnes in 2010-11. However, acreage under chickpeas in Canada is forecasted to fall by 48% lowering the output to around 0.65 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.28 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl 3659 Rs/qtl 2.06 Last 3580

as on September 23, 2011 Prev day 0.61 % change WoW MoM 3.99 13.65 8.06 14.85 YoY 57.28 61.97

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX October contract

Pulses Imports
As per the import data of Ministry of Commerce, during the first quarter of the current fiscal, the pulses import went up by 92 percent to 7.19 lakh tonnes during April-June 2011 as compared to 3.74 lakh tonnes in corresponding period last year. Out of the six key pulses, imports of Tur (pigeon pea) and peas rose by 286 and 211 percent to 0.54 and 5.26 lakh tonnes in April-June 2011 from 0.14 and 1.69 lakh tonnes same period last year. While the import of moong/urad and lentils are down by 35 % and 19 % to 0.88 and 0.38 lakh tones respectively as compared to the 1.36 and 0.47 lakh tones in corresponding period of pervious year.

Sowing progress and Production According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011-12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16%
Pulses are sown in 105.83 lakh hectares area compared with the 117.23 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year and 106.6 lakh hectare of average sown area in the last 5 years. Chana production estimates stood at 8.25 million tonnes up 10.3% compared to last year. Prospect for Rabi sowing is also higher due to better soil moisture levels. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for pulses during 2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 3600-3620 Resistance 3693-3710

Outlook
Chana prices may trade firm on lower stocks amidst good demand ahead of festive season. Short to medium term fundamentals remain supportive for Chana prices. Prospects for Rabi Pulses like Chana and Peas are better owing to better soil moisture levels, which may increase the overall output in 2011-12 season and may put downside pressure on the prices in the long term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures declined sharply and touched a contract low tracking the weakness in the international Sugar markets and on the report of extension of stock limits on Sugar. However, prices recovered and settled almost range bound towards the end as the festive season demand is seen off setting the other bearish factors prevailing in the domestic as well as global markets. India has extended for two months the limit up to which traders can stock sugar, a minister said on Tuesday, to avoid any possibility of rise in local prices during the festival season when demand peaks. Traders cannot hold more than 500 tonnes of sugar and that limit was to expire at the end of this month India will likely announce the quantity of sugar to be allowed to export from the country during 2011-12 by the middle of October because the country is heading for a bumper sugarcane crop for the second straight year, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said Monday. Liffe white sugar as well ICE raw Sugar futures tumbled 1.95% and 1.44% respectively on Friday tracking the broad decline in the commodities markets after a grim economic outlook from the US Federal Reserve.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl Last 2950

as on September 23, 2011 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 -1.67 MoM -3.28 YoY 7.27

Rs/qtl

2715

0.00

-2.16

0.56

#N/A

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeDec'11 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Dec'11 Futures $/tonne 562.22 $/tonne -1.44 Last 627.5

as on September 23, 2011 % Change Prev day WoW -1.95 -8.69 -8.07 MoM -21.61 -17.91 YoY -1.18 -5.67

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX October contract

Domestic Sugar updates

According to the first advance estimates, Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 34.22 mt for the coming season 2011-12 starting October 1, 2011. Indian farmers have planted Sugar cane in 51 lakh hectare, higher by 4% at 49 lakh hectares. According to Ministry of Consumer Affairs, the government has made available 19.31 lakh tonnes of sugar (Levy sugar- 2.31 lakh tonnes and Non Levy sugar 17 lakh tonnes) for the month of September 2011. Thus, for Sugar year 2010-11 (Oct-Sep), government has released 222.77 lakh tonnes of Sugar in the form of levy and non levy quota.

Global Sugar Updates

According to Unica (Cane industry Association), Brazils Sugarcane production was down by 11% at 338 mmt and Sugar output was down st 9.4% at 20.4 million tonnes as 1 September. Ethanol production lagged last year's output by 18.6 percent at 13.8 billion liters. China's sugar demand could outpace output by more than 2 mmt in the year 2011-12 after a prolonged drought hit the growing region. Thus it may have to import 2.45 mmt of Sugar to overcome a shortage. According to Kingsman consultancy, 2011-12 world sugar production is estimated at 173.244 mmt, down from 176.339 mmt estimated in May. Consumption is pegged at 164.083 mmt in 2011/12 against 165.764 mmt forecast earlier.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Sugar Oct MCX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 2690-2700 2690-2700 Resistance 2740-2745 2740-2745

Outlook
Sugar prices may remain sideways as higher supplies in the domestic market may pressurize prices at the higher levels, while festive season demand may support prices from falling sharply. From long term perspective, prices are expected to take cues from the Sugar output estimates in the domestic market, change in government policies with respect to exports and International Sugar prices, which would be influenced by the supplies from Brazil and demand from China.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean
NCDEX October Soybean futures traded lower in the morning hours due to sharp decline in overseas market and higher production estimates of domestic soybean coupled with increased arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh as fresh arrival started in some parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh with 18-22% of moisture contents. Arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh increased to 45,000 bags (30000 bags old crop and 15000 bags new crops) as compared to 40, 000 bags. Arrivals of soybean in Maharashtra increased to 22,000 bags (15000 bags old crop and 7000 bags new crops) as compared to 20, 000 bags. However, prices recovered from low on account of short covering and some fresh buying at lower levels as lower carry over stock of domestic soybean. As per PIB, the First Advance Estimates of production of major crops grown in the country in kharif season have been released on September 14, 2011, which shows that the oilseeds production in the kharif season is likely to be 20.89 million tonnes as against 20.85 million tonnes last season. The USDA weekly export sales released on September 22, 2011, which shows that weekly export sales of soybean came in at 404,400 metric tonnes as expected. Meal sales were better than expected showing cancellations of 21,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 197,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 175,900. Oil sales were below expectations showing cancellations of 8,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 10,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 2,500. Chinas soybean production will likely fall 10.6% to 13.5 million metric tons, an analyst with the government-backed China National Grain and Oils Information Center on September 21, 2011.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Ref Soyaoil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soyaoil- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl 2245 Rs/qtl 660.6 Rs/10 kgs 642.1 Rs/10 kgs -0.91 -0.16 0.29 Last 2263 Prev day -0.26

as on September 23, 2011

WoW -4.84 -6.13 -0.95 -3.92

MoM -4.43 -6.90 -0.62 -2.39

YoY 12.48 9.59 36.86 29.86

Source: Reuters

as on September 23, 2011 International Prices Soybean- CBOTSep'11 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTSep'11 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel Last 1266 Prev day -1.34 WoW -6.62 MoM -8.91 YoY 12.16

USc/lbs

52.89

-1.47

-6.47

-4.91

18.64

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

Unit CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sep'11 Contract CPO-MCX-Sep'11 Futures MYR/Tonne 498.6 Rs/10 kg -1.15 Last 3005

as on September 23, 2011 % Change Prev day WoW -0.60 -2.44 -0.82

MoM -4.69 1.67

YoY 8.76 18.77

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX(Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Last 2931 2935 Prev day -0.30 -0.71

as on September 23, 2011 WoW 0.21 0.69 MoM -0.64 -0.47

Source: Reuters

YoY 10.46 6.79

Mustard Seed
NCDEX October RM Seed futures ended lower on second consecutive day as losses in other edible oil provided support to the bears. However, demand from miller in anticipation of better demand of RM Seed oil in coming days (especially from west Bengal) ahead of Durga Pooja capped the downside limit.

Technical Chart Refined Soy Oil

NCDEX October contract

Refine Soy Oil

NCDEX October Refined Soy oil futures ended lower on second consecutive day as sharp fall in global market as huge losses in equity markets. As per Solvent Extractors Association of India, Indias edible oil imports in August fell about 22% from a year earlier to 785518 metric tonnes from 100094 metric tonnes. However, in the first 10 month of edible oil marketing year (November to August) edible oil imports fell about 7% from a year earlier to 6614791 metric tonnes from 7100540 metric tonnes. Indonesia's export tax rate on crude palm oil would remain at 15% until the end of this month, and rise to 16.5 percent in October. Malaysian Palm Oil Exports As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), Malaysias palm oil exports during September 1-20, fell 17% from the month earlier during the same period to 967,859 metric tonnes.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 635-637 2200-2210 2910-2920 493-495 Resistance 645-648 2260-2275 2970-2987 503-505

Outlook
Refined Soy Oil expected to trade lower on account of weak overseas marker as global market turmoil. Indonesia increased export tax on crude palm oil.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Spices Black Pepper
After gaining by more than 7% wow, Pepper futures witnessed profit booking and settled lower by 0.92% on Friday. Supply squeeze in the domestic and global markets have pushed pepper prices up by more than 25% since the beginning of August. Meanwhile, domestic demand has picked up for the festival as well as winter season. On the other hand pepper producers and stockiest in Kerala are holding on the stocks releasing only small quantities. As Vietnam has reportedly exhausted its pepper, buyers were showing interest to cover from India and some business is under way. Also, Indonesias output is estimated lower (Source: Pepper Trade Board) Indian parity in the international market was at $8,000-8,100 a tonne (c nd f) and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders. while Vietnam 500 Gl and Brazil ASTA grade is being offered at $7350 per tonne and $7,750 per tonne (f.o.b) respectively.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) PepperNCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl 36560 Rs/qtl -0.92 Last 35225 % Change Prev day -0.04

as on September 23, 2011 WoW 7.32 MoM 12.49 YoY 80.53

7.75

11.12

88.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX October contract

Exports from the major countries

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011July 2011 stood at 7,550 tonnes as compared to 6,800 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 11%. According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper from six major exporting nations during January June 2011 stood at 1.23 lakh tonnes registering a decline of 3 percent compared to 1.26 lakh tonnes in 2010. Exports from India and Malaysia posted an increase while Vietnam, Brazil and Srilanka registered a decline in 2011. Indonesia exported more or less the same as the previous year during the above mentioned period.

Source: Telequote

Production and Arrivals

Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Tuesday stood at 25 tonnes while offtakes stood at 15 tonnes. Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 is projected to be 48 thousand tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand tonnes last year. However, there are expectations that this estimate would be lowered further on account of the disease attacks and erratic rainfall in the major growing areas particularly Kerala and Karnataka. According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.10 lakh tonnes. Pepper production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 36100-36300 Resistance 37000-37190

Outlook
Pepper prices are expected to remain firm in the intraday on higher demand in anticipation of better exports owing to lower output globally. In the medium to long term (October to December), price trend will depend on pepper stocks with Vietnam and India along with price quotes offered by Indonesia and Vietnam in the international market for their pepper origins. Brazil fresh crop arrivals will also determine the price trend in the above period.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday | September 24, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
After gaining 3.13% wow, Jeera futures witnessed profit booking and settled lower by 0.92% on Friday. However, spot prices continued to remain firm and gained marginally by 0.06% owing to fresh demand from the overseas buyers amidst competitive prices of Indian origin. Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $3,450-3,500/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,600-$3,500/tn

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl 15620 Rs/qtl -0.92 Last 15609 Prev day 0.06

as on September 23, 2011 % Change WoW 0.46 3.14 MoM -0.41 0.36 YoY 14.02 14.32

Source: Reuters

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha mandi stood around on 8000 bags (1 bag= 55 kgs) on Thursday compared and off takes were reported at 6000 bags. Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). Fresh crop arrivals from Syria and Turkey have commenced and would peak up towards end of September. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011July 2011 stood at 7,750 tonnes as compared to 12,950 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 40%.

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
NCDEX October Jeera prices may extend the losses of the previous day initially; however, prices are expected to recover towards the end on emergence of fresh demand. In medium to long term (October to December) Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower side owing to lower production. This is likely to support prices.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -1.59 -3.86

as on September 23, 2011 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Oct'11 Futures Rs/qtl

Last 5190 4432

WoW -7.28 -8.96

MoM -19.53 -22.27

YoY -63.45 -68.07

Turmeric
Turmeric futures hit lower limit on Friday for the second consecutive session due to supply pressure. Demand from masala firms failed to provide any support to the prices in the futures market, while it provided support to the spot markets. All India average daily arrivals stood at around 17000 bags during the last week compared to normal arrivals of 7000-8000 bags every year.

Rs/qtl NCDEX October contract

Technical Chart Turmeric

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Average daily arrivals in erode on Friday stood at 7000 bags. to 7000 during the last week. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area th covered under turmeric till 24 August 2011 stood at 0.62 lakh ha 10.14 % lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- July 2011 stood at 29,250 tonnes as compared to 19,750 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 48%.

Outlook
Turmeric prices may extend the losses of the previous day due to supply pressure. In the medium to long term (October to December) turmeric prices will take cues from the turmeric stocks at the domestic market and sowing progress of turmeric in the main growing areas particularly Nizamabad and Erode.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for September 24, 2011 Support 15250-15395 4300-4370 Resistance 15800-15920 450-4550

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