SUBJECT:

PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS (S1)

Name of Teacher:
Elijah Nagar

Topic:
Discrete Random Variables
What is a discrete random variable?
• A random variable is a variable whose value depends on the
outcome of a random event.

• The value of the random variable is not known until the

event is carried out (this is what is meant by 'random' in this
case).

• Random variables are denoted using upper case letters (X ,

Y , etc ).

• Particular outcomes of the event are denoted using lower

case letters ( x, y, etc).
• 𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙) means "the probability of the random
variable X taking the value 𝒙 "

• A discrete random variable (often abbreviated to DRV)

can only take certain values within a set.

• Discrete random variables usually count something.

• Discrete random variables can only take a finite number

of values but it is possible that it can take an infinite
number of values.
Examples of discrete random variables include
(Determine whether they are finite or Infinite)
1. The number of times a coin lands on heads
when flipped 20 times.
2. The number of emails a manager receives
within an hour.
3. The number of times a dice is rolled until it
lands on a 6.
4. The number on a bingo ball when one is drawn
at random.
Answer
1. Finite
2. Infinite
3. Infinite
4. Finite
 Probability Distributions (Discrete). What is a probability
distribution?

• A discrete probability distribution fully describes all the values

that a discrete random variable can take along with their
associated probabilities.

oThis can be given in a table.

oOr it can be given as a function (called a probability mass function)
oThey can be represented by vertical line graphs.
oThe sum of the probabilities of all the values of a discrete random
variable is 1 written as σ 𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 = 1
Example: 1
• A six-sided spinner is spun. The number shown on the spinner is the random
variable X. Tabulate the possible outcomes.

Solution
Example: 2
Two unbiased spinners, one numbered 1, 3, 5, 7 and the other
numbered 1, 2, 3 are spun. The random variable X is the sum of
the two results. Find the probability distribution for X.
Solution:
Example 3
A bag contains 4 blue discs and 3 green discs. Two discs are removed without
replacement. The random variable X is the number of blue discs removed. Find
the probability distribution of X.
Solution
• Example: 4
Solution
Example: 5
Construct a probability distribution table and a vertical line graph for data below
Solution (Probability Distribution Table)
Solution (Vertical line graph)
Cumulative Probabilities (Discrete)
How do I calculate probabilities using a discrete probability distribution?
Example: 6
Solution:
Example: 7
• The probability distribution of a random variable Y is given by:
P(Y = y) = cy for y = 1, 2, 3, 4
• Find the value of c and tabulate the probability distribution.
Solution
Expectation (Mean of Discrete Random Variables)
The mean is given by 𝐸 𝑋 = σ 𝑥𝑖 𝑝𝑖
Example 8
•The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable X is shown in the table below
Solution
Example: 9
• What is the expectation of the score when a six-sided spinner is
spun once?
Solution
Variance
• The variance of a discrete random variable X, Var(X), is given by

Alternatively
Find the variance of the discrete random variable X given in Example 8.
Solution:
Example: 10
Two unbiased spinners, each numbered 1, 2, 3, 4 are
spun. The discrete random variable X is the sum of the
two results.
(i) Tabulate the probability distribution.
(ii) Calculate E(X) and Var(X).
Solution
Solution
Example: 11
Solution:
 The Binomial Distribution
In this lesson we shall learn:

• The conditions for a discrete random variable to follow

a binomial distribution.
• How to find binomial Probabilities.
• How to find the expectation and variance of a binomial
variable.
• Binomial Distribution Is the distribution of a special random variable.

For example:
A coin is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head
when the coin is tossed is 0.7. find the probability that exactly
2 heads are obtained when the coin is tossed
a. 3 times
b. 6 times
c. 15 times
Note:
• X is defined as the number of successful outcomes in n trials.
• The distribution of X is written as 𝑿~𝑩(𝒏, 𝒑). It is read as X
follows a binomial distribution.

Conditions for a Binomial Distribution

• There are a fixed number of repeated trials.
• The trials are independent.
• Each trial results in one of two outcomes: success or failure.
• The probability of success, p, is constant for each trial.
 𝑛
Link with Binomial Expansion and combinations 𝑞 + 𝑝
𝟓 𝟎 𝟓
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟎 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝒒𝟓
𝟎
𝟓 𝟏 𝟒
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟏 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝟓𝒑𝟏 𝒒𝟒
𝟏
𝟓 𝟐 𝟑
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟐 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝟏𝟎𝒑𝟐 𝒒𝟑
𝟐
𝟓 𝟑 𝟐
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟑 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝟏𝟎𝒑𝟑 𝒒𝟐
𝟑
𝟓 𝟒 𝟏
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟒 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝟓𝒑𝟒 𝒒𝟏
𝟒
𝟓 𝟓 𝟎
•𝑷 𝑿=𝟓 = 𝒑 𝒒 = 𝒑𝟓
𝟓
𝒏 𝒓 𝒏−𝒓 𝒏 𝒓
In general 𝑷 𝑿 = 𝒓 = 𝒑 𝒒 or 𝒑𝒓 = 𝒑 (𝟏 − 𝒑)𝒏−𝒓 where;
𝒓 𝒓
q = 1-p for r = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4,…,n
 Deciding whether a Binomial Distribution is Appropriate

• To do this, you need to apply all the conditions mentioned above.

Example 1: Ella is playing a board game. She has to throw a six on the
die in order to start. The random variable X is the number of times
Ella throws the die until she throws a six. Explain why X does not
follow a binomial distribution.
Example 2: At the Sell-it-all supermarket 60% of customers pay by
credit card. Find the probability that in a randomly selected sample of
12 customers
I. exactly 7 pay by credit card,
II.at least 3 but fewer than 5 pay by credit card.

Answers: i 0.227 (3 s.f.)

ii 0.0545 (3 s.f)
Example 3: On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16% are
buses and the remainder are cars. A random sample of 11 vehicles is
taken. Find the probability that fewer than 3 are buses.

Answer: 0.748 (3 s.f)

Example 4: The random variable Y has distribution B(7, 1/5).
Find
I. 𝑷 𝑿 ≤ 𝟐
II. 𝑷 𝑿 ≥ 𝟔

Answers: i 0.852 (3 s.f.)

ii 0.000371 (3 s.f)
Two-stage questions
You may need to use the binomial distribution to find a probability
which then becomes the probability of success ('p') in a second
binomial situation. This is illustrated in the following example.
Example 5: The Fair Choc Company makes small chocolate eggs, 48% of which
are milk chocolate and the remainder of which are plain chocolate. The eggs
are mixed before being put into identical foil wrappings and placed at random
into boxes, each containing 12 eggs.

I. A box is chosen at random. Show that the probability that this box
contains exactly 6 milk chocolate eggs is 0.223 correct to 3 significant
figures.

II. The manager takes a random sample of 10 boxes of eggs from the
production line. Find the probability that at least two of these boxes
contain exactly 6 milk chocolate eggs.

Answers: i 0.223 (3 s.f.)

ii 0.619 (3 s.f)
Expectation and Variance of the Binomial Distribution

• If 𝑿~𝑩(𝒏, 𝒑), then the Expectation (mean) is given as:

• 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝

• If 𝑿~𝑩(𝒏, 𝒑), then the Variance is given as:

2
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑋 = 𝜎 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
Example 6: The mean number of defective batteries in packs of 20 is 1.6.
Use a binomial distribution to calculate the probability that a randomly
chosen pack of 20 will have more than 2 defective batteries.

Example 7: The random variable X is distributed B(n, p) with mean 5 and

standard deviation 2. Find the values of n and p.

Example 8: Lilia travels to work by bus or by car. The probability that she
travels by bus on any day is 0.7. If she travels by bus, there is a probability
of 0.1 that she is late for work. If she travels by car there is a probability
of 0.2 that she is late for work.
I. Find the probability that she is late for work on a particular day.
II.Find the expected number of days she is late for work in 20 working days.
III.Find the variance of the number of days she travels by car in 10 working
days.
Answers:

Example 6: 0.212 (3 s.f.)

Example 7: n = 25 and p = 0.2

Example 8:
I. 0.13
II. 2.6
III. 2.1
Diagrammatic Representation of the Binomial Distribution
Example 9: The random variable X has distribution B(20, 0.25).
I. Find the mean and the standard deviation of X.
II.Find the percentage of the distribution that lies within one
standard deviation of the mean.

Answers:
I. 1.94(3 s.f)
II. 56.1%(3 s.f)
 THE MODE OF THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The mode is the value of X that is most likely to occur, i.e. the value with the
highest probability. In a vertical line diagram, the mode is the value represented
by the highest line. Consider the distributions shown in the diagrams above and
locate the mode. You will notice, however, that X~B(9, 0.5) has two modes, i.e. it
is bi-modal. In fact this is the case for any binomial distribution where n is odd
and p = 0.5.
In general,
• when n is odd and p = 0.5, the binomial distribution has two modes
• for all other values of n and p, the binomial distribution has one mode.
The mode can be found by calculating all the probabilities and finding the value
of X with the highest probability. This is however very tedious; it is usually only
necessary to consider the probabilities of values of X close to the mean of the
distribution.
Example 10: The probability that a student at a particular
college is awarded a distinction is 0.05. The number of
students awarded a distinction in a randomly chosen group of
50 students from the college is denoted by X.

I. Find the mean of X.

II.Find the most likely value of X.
 Geometric Distribution
• A geometric distribution is defined as a
discrete probability distribution of a random
variable “x”. Or
• Geometric distribution gives the probability of
achieving success after N number of failures.

The geometric distribution conditions are:

• A phenomenon that has a series of trials
• Each trial has only two possible outcomes – either
success or failure
• The probability of success is the same for each
trial
Geometric Distribution Formula
• The probability that first success occurs after
k number of trials. If p is the probability of
success or failure of each trial, then the
probability that success occurs on the 𝑘 𝑡ℎ trial
is given by the formula
𝒌−𝟏
• 𝑷𝒓 𝑿 = 𝒌 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 𝒑
Real Life Examples of Geometric Distribution
• Consider a couple who are planning to have a
child and they will continue to babies until it is a
girl. What is the probability that they have zero
boys, one boy and two boys and so on until a girl
is born?
• Zakia is seeking new employment that is both
challenging and fulfilling. What is the probability
that she will quit zero times, one time, two times
so on until she finds his ideal job?
• A pharmaceutical company is designing a new
drug to treat a certain disease that will have
minimal side effects. What is the probability that
zero drugs fail the test, one drug fails the test, two
 Example
If Benedicta is throwing a six-sided die and will
stop once she gets 5.
Find:
I. The probability that she gets 5 on the first trial
II. The probability that she gets 5 on the second
trial
III. The probability that she gets 5 on the fifth trial
Answers:
I. 0.17
II. 0.14
III. 0.14
Group Discussion and Answers
Recap of Previous lesson

What do you remember about discrete random variables

Give two examples of discrete distributions.
What do you remember about these distributions
 Lesson Objectives
We should be able to:
• Draw up a probability distribution table relating to a given situation involving a
discrete random variable X.
• Calculate calculate E(X) and Var(X).
• Solve application and past questions
Q1.
Find how many different numbers can be made
by arranging all nine digits of the number 223 677
888 if

(i) there are no restrictions, [2]

(ii) the number made is an even number.
Solution
Q2.
Perfect has 4 red socks and 8 black socks in her drawer. She
takes 2 socks at random from her drawer.
(i) Find the probability that the socks taken are of different
colours.

The random variable X is the number of red socks taken.

(ii) Draw up the probability distribution table for X

(iii) Find EX.

Solution
Q3:
A company produces small boxes of sweets that contain 5
jellies and 3 chocolates. Emefa chooses 3 sweets at random
from a box.
(a) Draw up the probability distribution table for the number
of jellies that Emefa chooses. [4]

The company also produces large boxes of sweets. For any

large box, the probability that it contains more jellies than
chocolates is 0.64. 10 large boxes are chosen at random.

(b) Find the probability that no more than 7 of these boxes

contain more jellies than chocolates. [3]
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Solution
Q4.
Winifred knows that she has 3 tins of carrots, 2 tins of peas and 2
tins of sweetcorn in her cupboard. All the tins are the same shape
and size, but the labels have all been removed, so Sharma does not
know what each tin contains.

Winifred wants carrots for her meal, and she starts opening the tins
one at a time, chosen randomly, until she opens a tin of carrots. The
random variable X is the 6number of tins that she needs to open.
Show that 𝑃 𝑋 = 3 =
33

a. Draw up the probability distribution table for X.

b. Find VarX.
9709/51/M/J/21
Solution
Q5.
Solution
Q6
Mariama has four coins. One of the coins is biased such that
𝟕
when it is thrown the probability of obtaining a head is . The
𝟏𝟎
other three coins are fair. Mariama throws all four coins once.
The number of heads that she obtains is denoted by the
random variable X. The probability distribution table for X is as
follows.
Q6
𝟏
a). Show that 𝒂 = and find the values of b and c.
𝟓

b). Find E(X)

Mariama throws all four coins together 10 times.

c). Find the probability that she obtains exactly one head on fewer than 3
occasions.

d). Find the probability that Mariama obtains exactly one head for the first
time on the 7th or 8th time that he throws the 4 coins.
Solution
Q7
Solution