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RESULTS

February 28, 2023

FORTH Corporation
FORTH TB / FORTH.BK

Sector: Technology OVERWEIGHT


Rating: BUY
Below our estimate Target Price: Bt52.00
Price (February 27, 2023): Bt40.00

Core profit was below our expectation Key statistics


Market cap Bt38.4bn USD1.1bn
FORTH posted 4Q22 net earnings of Bt156m, down by 16% YoY and 12-mth price range Bt23.6/Bt64.0
33% QoQ. The core number was 10% below our estimate because other 12-mth avg daily volume Bt235m USD6.8m
income was lower than expected. FORTH will pay a DPS of Bt0.37 for # of shares (m) 960
Est. free float (%) 34.0
2022, an implied yield of 1.3% (XD Mar 14). The firm will also reduce
Foreign limit (%) 49.0
capital by 24,625,300 treasury shares. Management announced a spin-
off and IPO plan for FORTH EMS (FEMS). FORTH shareholders will gain Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M
Relative to SET (2.7) 12.8 48.9
pre-emptive rights that will entitle them to a total of 96m shares (30% of Absolute (5.9) 13.5 45.5
the total IPO shares). FORTH shareholders will be eligible for one FEMS
share for every 10 shares in FORTH that they hold. Financial summary
FY Ended 31 Dec 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Result highlights Revenues (Btm) 9,431 11,326 13,775 16,252
Net profit (Btm) 775 1,246 2,379 3,094
Revenue in 4Q22 was Bt2,541m, down by 3% YoY and 4% QoQ (9% EPS (Bt) 0.81 1.33 2.54 3.31
above our estimate). EMS revenue grew 53% YoY (new orders) but EPS grow th (%) +7.2% +65.0% +91.0% +30.0%
Core profit (Btm) 819 1,246 2,379 3,094
slipped 6% QoQ (a high base was set by 3Q22 because some 1H22
Core EPS (Bt) 0.85 1.33 2.54 3.31
orders were rescheduled to 3Q22). Enterprise solutions income fell by Core EPS grow th (%) +13.4% +56.0% +91.0% +30.0%
60% YoY and 11% QoQ, as more projects wrapped up; new projects PER (x) 49.6 30.0 15.7 12.1
PBV (x) 11.8 8.5 5.9 4.1
started in early 2023. Smart services biz receipts rose by 34% YoY and Dividend (Bt) 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0
3% QoQ, as TAO BIN’s growth outweighed the effect of Boon Term’s Dividend yield (%) 1.3 2.1 4.1 5.0
decline. Other income missed our assumption because of one-time audit ROE (%) 40.8 52.1 76.4 74.4

adjustments, we believe. GM was 23.0%, up from 19.2% in 4Q21 but


CG / CAC Anti-Corruption Certification
down from 25.1% in 3Q22.
-
Outlook
/
Our 1Q23 core earnings projection is Bt251m, up by 6% YoY and 61%
QoQ, driven by TAO BIN sales.

What’s changed?
We forecast a 2023 core profit of Bt1,246m, up 52% YoY.
Recommendation
Our BUY call stands to a YE23 target price of Bt52, as we anticipate TAO
BIN-driven top- and bottom-line growth this year.

Napon Jaisan
Capital Market Fundamental Investment Analyst
Napon.jai@bualuang.co.th
+66 2 618 1349
Nattanicha Mongkolsupawan
Assistant analyst

Please see final page for additional important disclosures. Bualuang Securities Public Company
See disclaimer at the end of report Limited (“BLS”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. BLS research is prepared by
research analysts who are not registered in the USA. BLS research is distributed in the USA
pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.
| RESEARCH

FORTH: Financial Tables – Year


PROFIT & LOSS (Btm ) 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue growth and asset turnover
Revenue 8,513 9,431 11,326 13,775 16,252
Cost of sales and services (6,637) (7,141) (8,300) (8,217) (9,072) Revenue growth (%) (LHS)
% x
Gross profit 1,876 2,290 3,026 5,558 7,180 Asset turnover (x) (RHS)
SG&A (1,051) (1,227) (1,280) (1,550) (1,820) 30 2.0
EBIT 825 1,063 1,746 4,009 5,360 25
1.5
Interest expense (77) (102) (122) (125) (123) 20
Other income/exp. 300 323 382 450 531 15 1.0
EBT 1,048 1,285 2,006 4,334 5,769 10
Corporate tax (192) (231) (421) (910) (1,211) 0.5
5
After-tax net profit (loss) 856 1,054 1,585 3,424 4,557
Minority interest (173) (250) (355) (1,060) (1,480) 0 0.0
39 16 16 16 16 19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E
Equity earnings from affiliates
Extra items 0 (44) 0 0 0
A/C receivable & A/C payable days
Net profit (loss) 723 775 1,246 2,379 3,094
Reported EPS 0.75 0.81 1.33 2.54 3.31 days AR / Sales (days) AP / Cost of Goods (days)
Fully diluted EPS 0.75 0.81 1.30 2.48 3.22
140
Core net profit 723 819 1,246 2,379 3,094
0.75 0.85 1.33 2.54 3.31 120
Core EPS
1,337 1,598 2,522 4,925 6,460 100
EBITDA
80
KEY RATIOS 60
Revenue grow th (%) 25.3 10.8 20.1 21.6 18.0 40
Gross margin (%) 22.0 24.3 26.7 40.4 44.2 20
EBITDA margin (%) 15.7 16.9 22.3 35.8 39.8 0
Operating margin (%) 9.7 11.3 15.4 29.1 33.0 19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E
Net margin (%) 8.5 8.2 11.0 17.3 19.0
8.5 8.7 11.0 17.3 19.0 Profit margins
Core profit margin (%)
ROA (%) 8.7 7.7 10.6 17.9 20.1 % Gross margin (%) EBIT margin (%)
ROCE (%) 12.7 11.3 15.2 24.2 25.6
Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 50
Current ratio (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 40
Gearing ratio (x) 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.5
10.8 10.5 14.4 32.1 43.7 30
Interest coverage (x)
20
BALANCE SHEET (Btm ) 10
Cash & Equivalent 850 781 794 810 871
Accounts receivable 2,314 2,977 2,638 3,132 3,607 0
Inventory 1,447 2,093 1,819 1,801 1,988 19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E
PP&E-net 2,098 3,227 4,108 4,850 5,932
Capital expenditure
Other assets 2,109 2,307 2,790 3,783 3,955
Total assets 8,818 11,385 12,150 14,376 16,353 Bt,bn Capex (Bt,bn) Capex / Net PPE (%) %
Accounts payable 1,492 2,077 1,706 1,688 1,864 3 60
ST debts & current portion 3,105 4,088 4,030 4,312 3,881
324 318 318 318 318 2 50
Long-term debt
Other liabilities 1,278 1,644 1,693 1,747 1,263 40
2
Total liabilities 6,199 8,127 7,746 8,065 7,325 30
Paid-up capital 480 480 480 480 480 1
20
Share premium 363 363 363 363 363
1 10
Retained earnings 1,245 1,618 2,061 2,908 4,145
Shareholders equity 1,703 2,095 2,690 3,537 4,774 0 0
Minority interests 916 1,164 1,714 2,774 4,254 19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E
Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity 8,818 11,385 12,150 14,376 16,353
Debt serviceability
CASH FLOW (Btm ) (ST debt + Interest) / EBITDA
Net income 723 775 1,246 2,379 3,094 x
(Debt + Interest) / EBITDA
Depreciation and amortization 512 534 776 916 1,100 3.5
Change in w orking capital (1,102) (725) 242 (494) (486) 3.0
FX, non-cash adjustment & others 602 302 381 1,161 2,280 2.5
Cash flow s from operating activities 735 886 2,645 3,963 5,988 2.0
Capex (Invest)/Divest (330) (1,642) (1,636) (1,636) (2,160) 1.5
Others (44) (81) (134) (1,060) (1,480) 1.0
Cash flow s from investing activities (374) (1,723) (1,771) (2,697) (3,640) 0.5
Debt financing (repayment) 253 1,218 (59) 282 (431) 0.0
Equity financing 0 0 0 0 0 19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E
Dividend payment (327) (421) (803) (1,533) (1,856)
Others (44) (81) (134) (1,060) (1,480) Dividend payout
Cash flow s from financing activities (249) 769 (861) (1,251) (2,287) Bt/Shr
Net change in cash 112 (68) 13 16 61 Dividend (Bt) Payout ratio (%) %

Free cash flow (Btm ) 405 (756) 1,009 2,327 3,828 3 140
1.98 120
FCF per share (Bt) 0.4 (0.8) 1.1 2.5 4.1 2 1.64
100
2 80
0.86 60
1
0.42 0.32 0.45 0.52 40
1
20
0 0
19 20 21 22E 23E 24E 25E

••• FORTH 2
| RESEARCH

FORTH: Financial Tables – Quarter


QUARTERLY PROFIT & LOSS (Btm ) 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 Revenue trend
Revenue 2,629 2,067 2,172 2,652 2,541
Cost of sales and services (2,123) (1,564) (1,637) (1,985) (1,955) Bt,bn Revenue (Bt,bn) (LHS)
%
Revenue growth (% YoY)
3 35
Gross profit 506 503 534 667 586 30
SG&A (276) (263) (271) (366) (327) 3
25
EBIT 230 240 263 301 259 2 20
15
Interest expense (20) (21) (23) (26) (32) 2
10
Other income/exp. 71 106 79 108 30 1 5
0
EBT 280 326 319 383 258 1
(5)
Corporate tax (60) (34) (61) (74) (62) 0 (10)
After-tax net profit (loss) 220 292 258 308 196 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Minority interest (41) (60) (71) (78) (41)
Revenue trend (accumulated)
Equity earnings from affiliates 7 5 5 5 2
Accum. Revenue (Bt,bn)
Extra items 0 0 (44) 0 0 Bt,bn %
% of FY Revenue
Net profit (loss) 186 237 147 235 156 10
Reported EPS 0.19 0.25 0.15 0.24 0.16 100 100 120
8 100
Fully diluted EPS 0.19 0.25 0.15 0.24 0.16 69 73
186 237 192 235 156 6 80
Core net profit
46 45 60
Core EPS 0.19 0.25 0.20 0.24 0.16 4
338 353 391 475 378 22 40
EBITDA 2 20
KEY RATIOS 0 0
Gross margin (%) 19.2 24.4 24.6 25.1 23.0 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
EBITDA margin (%) 12.9 17.1 18.0 17.9 14.9
Net profit trend (accumulated)
Operating margin (%) 8.7 11.6 12.1 11.3 10.2
Net margin (%) 7.1 11.4 6.8 8.9 6.2 Bt,m Accum. Profit (Bt,m) % of FY Profit
%
Core profit margin (%) 7.1 11.4 8.8 8.9 6.2 900
800 100 100 120
BV (Bt) 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 700 80 100
ROE (%) 46.4 52.0 31.0 49.7 31.1 600 74
80
ROA (%) 8.7 10.4 6.1 9.2 5.7 500 53 50
400 60
Current ratio (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 31
300 40
Gearing ratio (x) 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 200
100 20
Interest coverage (x) 11.3 11.7 11.3 11.5 8.2
0 0
QUARTERLY BALANCE SHEET (Btm ) 2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Cash & Equivalent 850 1,114 802 759 781
Accounts receivable 2,314 2,427 2,729 2,725 2,977 Gross profit margin
Inventory 1,447 1,665 1,809 2,054 2,093 % FY GPM (%) Gross margin (%)

PP&E-net 2,098 2,196 2,408 2,679 3,227 30


Other assets 2,109 1,941 2,077 2,324 2,307
25
Total assets 8,818 9,343 9,826 10,541 11,385
20
Accounts payable 1,492 1,592 1,696 2,038 2,077
15
ST debts & current portion 3,105 3,225 3,681 4,013 4,088
10
Long-term debt 324 277 272 267 318
Other liabilities 1,278 1,334 1,282 1,185 1,644 5
Total liabilities 6,199 6,428 6,931 7,503 8,127 0
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22
Paid-up capital 480 480 480 480 480
Share premium 363 363 363 363 363
EBIT margin
Retained earnings 1,245 1,482 1,348 1,443 1,618
Shareholders equity 1,703 1,940 1,854 1,930 2,095 %
FY EBIT margin (%) EBIT margin (%)

Minority interests 916 976 1,040 1,108 1,164 14


Total Liab.&Shareholders' equity 8,818 9,343 9,826 10,541 11,385 12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2Q21 4Q21 2Q22 4Q22

Company profile
Forth Corporation Plc is a research, development, and production organization. It distributes and provide ICT services and all kinds of electronics,
including a network of automated and financial service channels.

••• FORTH 3
| RESEARCH

Figure 1 : 4Q22 results

FY Ended 31 Dec (Btm ) 4Q22 4Q21 YoY % 3Q22 QoQ % 2022 2021 YoY %

Incom e Statem ent


Revenue 2,541 2,629 (3) 2,652 (4) 9,431 8,513 11  Sales were 9% above our
Cost of sales and services (1,955) (2,123) (8) (1,985) (1) (7,141) (6,637) 8 expectation
EBITDA 378 338 12 475 (20) 1,598 1,317 21
SG&A (327) (276) 18 (366) (11) (1,227) (1,051) 17
EBIT 259 230 13 301 (14) 1,063 825 29
 GM was 23.0%; we had assumed
Interest expense (32) (20) 55 (26) 21 (102) (77) 32 24.8%
Other income/exp. 30 71 (57) 108 (72) 323 300 8
Equity earnings from affiliates 2 7 nm 5 nm 16 39 nm  SG&A expenses were in line with
Extra items 0 0 nm 0 nm (44) 0 nm our expectation
EBT 258 280 (8) 383 (33) 1,285 1,048 23
Corporate tax (62) (60) 3 (74) (17) (231) (192) 21  Net profit was 10% below our
Minority interest (41) (41) nm (78) nm (250) (173) nm
estimate
Net profit (loss) 156 186 (16) 235 (33) 775 723 7
Reported EPS 0.16 0.19 (16) 0.24 (33) 0.81 0.75 7
Core net profit 156 186 (16) 235 (33) 819 723 13

Key ratios
Gross margin (%) 23.0 19.2 25.1 24.3 22.0
EBITDA margin (%) 14.9 12.9 17.9 16.9 15.5
EBIT margin (%) 10.2 8.7 11.3 11.3 9.7
SG&A / Revenue (%) 12.9 10.5 13.8 13.0 12.3
Tax rate (%) 24.0 21.3 19.4 18.0 18.3
Net margin (%) 6.2 7.1 8.9 8.2 8.5
Current ratio (x) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
Gearing ratio (x) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3
Interest coverage (x) 8.2 11.3 11.5 10.5 10.8

Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalent 781 850 (8) 759 3
Total assets 11,385 8,818 29 10,541 8
ST debts & current portion 4,088 3,105 32 4,013 2
Long-term debt 318 324 (2) 267 19
Total liabilities 8,127 6,199 31 7,503 8
Retained earnings 1,618 1,245 30 1,443 12
Shareholders equity 2,095 1,703 23 1,930 9
Minority interests 1,164 916 27 1,108 5
BV (Bt) 3.4 2.7 24 3.2 7

Source: Bualuang Research estimates

••• FORTH 4
| RESEARCH

Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited DISCLAIMER

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BLS) is a subsidiary of BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED (BBL). This document
is produced based upon sources believed to be reliable but their accuracy, completeness or correctness is not guaranteed. The statements or
expressions of opinion herein were arrived at after due and careful consideration to use as information for investment. Expressions of opinion contained
herein are subject to change without notice. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell
any securities. The use of any information shall be at the sole discretion and risk of the user.

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY BE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SECURITIES IN THIS REPORT. “Opinions,
projections and other information contained in this report are based upon sources believed to be accurate including the draft prospectus, but no
responsibility is accepted for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited may from
time to time perform investment, advisory or other services for companies mentioned in this report, as well as dealing (as principal or otherwise) in, or
otherwise being interested in, any securities mentioned herein, This report does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any securities”. Investors
should carefully read details in the prospectus before making investment decision.

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED MAY ACT AS MARKET MAKER AND ISSUER OF DWs, AND ISSUER OF STRUCTURED
NOTES ON THESE SECURITIES. The company may prepare the research reports on those underlying securities. Investors should carefully read the
details of the derivative warrants and structured notes in the prospectus before making investment decisions.

ADVANC AMATA AOT BDMS BH CBG CENTEL CPALL GLOBAL GPSC IRPC KBANK KCE KTC MINT
PTG PTT PTTEP PTTGC SCB SPRC TOP WHA ESSO STA BGRIM GULF MTC AWC CRC
CPF CPN HANA HMPRO IVL OSP SAWAD BANPU BCH BTS CK SCC STEC TISCO TU
INTUCH RATCH VGI SCGP TQM COM7 DOHOME JMT CHG TMB BAM BCP AP KTB KKP
OR BEM GUNKUL EA SPALI RBF STGT MEGA JMART BEC SYNEX BLA KEX RCL SINGER
STARK TIDLOR FORTH TIPH AAV DELTA BCPG SABUY THG CKP

BUALUANG SECURITIES PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED IS OR MAY BE AN UNDERWRITER/CO-UNDERWRITER/JOINT LEAD IN RESPECT OF


THE INITIAL PUBLIC OFFERING (IPO) OF SECURITIES.

Lead underwriter/
Financial Advisor Underwriter/
Co-underwriter
MEB

CG Rating

Score Range Score Range Description


90 – 100 Excellent
80 – 89 Very Good
70 – 79 Good
60 – 69 Satisfactory
50 – 59 Pass
Below 50 No logo given N/A

Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)
under Thai Institute of Directors
 companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and
 companies certified by CAC.

••• FORTH 5
| RESEARCH

CORPORATE GOVERNANCE REPORT DISCLAIMER

This research report was prepared by Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited and refers to research prepared by Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley
does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its research reports. Morgan Stanley reserves copyright and other proprietary rights in
the material reproduced in this report. Morgan Stanley is under no obligation to inform Bualuang Securities or you if the views or information referred to
or reproduced in this research report change.

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer


The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of
the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The IOD survey is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of
Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is
from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be
changed after that date. Bualuang Securities Public Company Limited neither confirms nor certifies the accuracy of such survey results.

“Disclaimer: The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by the
relevant institution as disclosed by the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable
development plan for the listed companies. The relevant institution made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as
stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of a third party. It is not an
assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the
assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, Bualuang Securities Public
Company Limited neither confirms, verifies, nor certifies the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.”

BUALUANG RESEARCH – RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
months. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12
SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.
months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
3 months. months.

••• FORTH 6
| RESEARCH

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••• FORTH 7

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