DMW Theorem
DMW Theorem
DMW Theorem
FREDDY DELBAEN
Contents
1. Introduction 1
2. Statement of the theorem 1
3. Reduction to the case T = 1 2
4. Some measure theory 2
5. Topological version of the no-arbitrage condition 8
6. Schachermayer’s proof 11
7. Rogers’ proof 11
References 13
1. Introduction
Roughly speaking, the Dalang–Morton–Willinger theorem states that for a finite
sequence of price vectors (S0 , S1 , . . . , ST ) in Rd , the no-arbitrage condition im-
plies the existence of an equivalent martingale measure. Different proofs exist [1],
[3], [5], [6], [7], and even [2]. Rogers’ original proof is extremely elegant but it
uses the existence of regular conditional distributions, the original proof of [1] uses
the measurable selection theorem and Schachermayer’s proof needs a good deal of
functional analysis. The present presentation closely follows [6]. It gives additional
results. The present note is not intended for publication in a journal. It is only a
“didactical note”. I give proofs of intermediate results in integration and measure
theory. These results are, I think, interesting in themselves.
t=0
1
2 F. DELBAEN
K is a subspace of L0 (Ω, FT , P), the space of all real-valued random variables, where
two random variables equal P-almost surely are identified.
Definition 2.1. With the notation introduced above, we say that the process S =
(S0 , . . . , ST ) satisfies the no-arbitrage condition, (NA) for short, if K ∩ L0+ = {0}.
The symbol L0+ denotes the cone of non-negative random variables in L0 (Ω, FT , P).
Theorem 2.2 (Dalang, Morton, Willinger). With the above notations: S satisfies
the no-arbitrage condition if and only if there is a probability measure Q equivalent
to P, such that under Q the process S is a martingale, i. e.:
(a) For all t ∈ {0, . . . , T } we have St ∈ L1 (Q).
(b) For all t ∈ {0, . . . , T − 1} we have St = EQ [St+1 | Ft ] where EQ denotes
expectation with respect to Q.
Moreover Q can be chosen so that dQ/dP ∈ L∞ , i. e., the density of Q with respect
to P is uniformly bounded.
If such an equivalent martingale measure Q exists, then EQ [f ] = 0 for every
f ∈ K. Since EQ [f ] = 0 for f ∈ L0+ if and only if f = 0 almost surely, we get
K ∩ L0+ = {0}. Therefore, we only treat the non-trivial direction of the Dalang–
Morton–Willinger theorem in the following.
almost all ω ∈ Ω. We also suppose that Ai,j ∈ L1 (P) for all i, j ∈ {1, . . . , d}.
1/2 1/2
From linear algebra we know that |Ai,j | ≤ Ai,i Aj,j and hence the Cauchy–
Schwarz inequality
Pd implies that Ai,j ∈ L1 (P) for all i, j ∈ {1, . . . , d} if and only
if Trace(A) = i=1 Ai,i ∈ L (P). We are only interested in the case T = 1 and
1
hence we suppose that all random variables are F1 -measurable. This in particular
applies to A. We now define
Bi,j = EP [Ai,j | F0 ], i, j ∈ {1, . . . , d}. (4.1)
Lemma 4.2. For almost all ω the (d×d)-matrix B(ω) given by (4.1) is symmetric
and non-negative definite.
Proof. Clearly, for i 6= j we have Bi,j = Bj,i almost surely. For each q ∈ Rd with
rational coordinates we find that q 0 Bq = EP [q 0 Aq | F0 ] ≥ 0 almost surely. It follows
that on a set Ωq of measure one we have q 0 Bq ≥ 0. The density of the rational
numbers in R then implies that x0 Bx ≥ 0 for every x ∈ Rd on the countable
intersection \
Ωq .
q∈Rd
q rational
These properties imply that almost surely B is symmetric and non-negative definite.
is well defined and represents the orthogonal projection of Rd onto the range of B.
It follows from the F0 -measurability of B that P is also F0 -measurable.
Proof.
R∞ If C is an arbitrary non-negative definite, symmetric (d × d)-matrix, then
−λC
0
Ce dλ represents the orthogonal projection onto its range. This is easily
seen using an orthonormal basis where C is diagonal. We only have to apply this
elementary result from linear algebra to each matrix B(ω).
Exercise 4.5. If we start with a non-negative definite, symmetric, integrable, ma-
trix-valued mapping A, then the mapping B in (4.1) depends on the probability
measure P we use to calculate the conditional expectations (4.1). Show that the
projection P from (4.4), however, is independent of this probability measure in the
sense that we obtain the same projection P if we replace P by an equivalent proba-
bility measure P1 such that A remains integrable. Also show that the matrix-valued
mapping P is the same for A as for the matrix-valued mapping PA , where PA de-
notes the orthogonal projection onto the range of A. This allows to get rid of the
integrability conditions and reduces the proof to the case of projection operators.
This exercise, although not difficult, requires a lot of verification.
Hints 4.6. Check that (I − P )B(I − P ) = 0 almost surely, hence
EP [(I − P )A(I − P )] = 0.
This means Trace((I − P )A(I − P )) = 0 and therefore (I − P )A(I − P ) = 0 almost
surely. Consider now EP1 [ · | F0 ].
4 F. DELBAEN
Lemma 4.7. With the notation of the previous lemmas we have that for every
F0 -measurable function α : Ω → Rd
(a) β ≡ P α is F0 -measurable,
(b) Bβ = Bα almost surely,
(c) β 0 Bβ = α0 Bα almost surely,
(d) (α − β)0 B(α − β) = 0 almost surely.
Proof. Apply the results from linear algebra for each ω ∈ Ω separately.
Lemma 4.8. With the same notations: if (αn )n∈N is a sequence of F0 -measurable
functions so that αn0 Bαn −→
a.s.
0, then βn ≡ P αn −→
a.s.
0.
Proof. We may apply the results from linear algebra for each ω separately.
P P
Corollary 4.9. With the same notations: if αn0 Bαn −→ 0, then βn −→ 0.
Proof. We have to show that from each subsequence (nk )k∈N we can select a further
subsequence (nkl )l∈N , so that βnkl −→
a.s.
0. This follows from Lemma 4.8 by selecting
0
(nkl )l∈N so that αnk Bαnkl −→ 0 as l → ∞.
a.s.
l
≤ EP1 [exp(λε−1 −1 2 −2
n h)] = c EP [exp(λεn h − h )] ≤ c exp(λ εn /4),
2
which means
EP1 [hα − P α, Xi2 ] = 0,
hence hα, Xi = hP α, Xi almost surely. The general case is reduced to the bounded
case by replacing α by α/(kαk + 1).
P
It remains to prove (c). Suppose that hαn , Xi −→ 0 and let (nk )k∈N be any
subsequence. It suffices to show the existence of a further subsequence (nkl )l∈N so
P
that P αnkl −→ 0.
By selecting a further subsequence if necessary, we may assume in the following
that hαnk , Xi −→a.s.
0. Note that h ≡ supk∈N |hαnk , Xi| < ∞ almost surely. We may
replace P by an equivalent probability measure P2 with dP2 /dP = c exp(−h). Then
h has moments of all orders, in particular h ∈ L2 (P2 ). Exercise 4.5 shows that P
is not affected by such a replacement.
The choice of P2 implies that EP2 [hαnk , Xi2 ] → 0, hence EP2 [hP αnk , Xi2 ] → 0 by
part (b). Therefore, EP2 [(P αnk )0 B2 (P αnk )] → 0, where B2 ≡ EP2 [XX 0 | F0 ]. Since
P
(P αnk )0 B2 (P αnk ) ≥ 0 by Lemma 4.2, this implies (P αnk )0 B2 (P αnk ) −→ 0. But
Exercise 4.5 precisely means that P is almost surely also the orthogonal projection
P
onto the range of B2 , hence P αnk −→ 0 by Corollary 4.9. The reverse direction
follows from part (b).
Corollary 4.12. If (αn )n∈N is a sequence of F0 -measurable, Rd -valued functions.
If the sequence (hαn , Xi)n∈N is bounded in probability, i. e.,
∀ ε > 0 ∃ c > 0 ∀ n ∈ N : P[|hαn , Xi| > c] ≤ ε,
then the sequence (P αn )n∈N , is also bounded in probability.
Proof. Suppose not, then there is ε > 0 and a subsequence (nk )k∈N such that
P[kP αnk k > k] ≥ ε for all k ∈ N. (4.13)
Look now at the sequence hαnk /k, Xi. This sequence tends to zero in probability
P
and hence P αnk /k −→ 0 by Lemma 4.11(c). This is a contradiction to (4.13).
Lemma 4.14 (Stricker’s lemma). If X : Ω → Rd is F1 -measurable, then
K = { hα, Xi | α : Ω → Rd F0 -measurable } ⊂ L0 (Ω, F1 , P)
is closed for the convergence in probability.
P
Proof. If hαn , Xi −→ k, where (αn )n∈N is a sequence of F0 -measurable functions
with values in R , then
d
where all limits are taken in probability and Lemma 4.11(b) is used.
6 F. DELBAEN
Proof. Deduce this from the above Lemma 4.15 by considering the product space
Ω0 ≡ Ω × {1, . . . , N } with F10 ≡ F1 ⊗ P({1, . . . , N }), F00 ≡ F0 ⊗ {∅, {1, . . . , N }} and
P0 (A × {j}) ≡ P(A)λj for A ∈ F1 and j ∈ {1, . . . , N }. Check that g = EP0 [f | F00 ],
PN
where f (ω, j) ≡ i=1 fi (ω)1{i} (j) on Ω0 .
Lemma 4.17. Let f1 , . . . , fN : Ω → R+ be F1 -measurable and λ1 , . . . , λN ∈ R+
PN
with i=1 λi = 1. Suppose that P[fi > c] ≥ δ for all i ∈ {1, . . . , N } for some
constant c > 0. Then g = EP [λ1 f1 + · · · + λN fN | F0 ] satisfies
· ¸
cδ 2 δ
P g> ≥
16 16
Proof. By Schachermayer’s lemma, P[λ1 f1 + · · · + λN fN > cδ/2] ≥ δ/4. Hence
· ¸
cδ δ 1 δ
P g> ≥
2 42 16
by a simple application of Lemma 4.15.
Lemma 4.18. Let (fn )n∈N be a sequence of non-negative measurable functions
such that the set C = conv(fn , n ∈ N) of finite convex combinations is bounded in
L0 (Ω, F1 , P). This means
∀ ε > 0 ∃ c > 0 ∀ h ∈ C : P[h > c] ≤ ε. (4.19)
P
Then there exists g : Ω → R+ as well as gn ∈ conv(fm , m ≥ n) such that gn −→ g.
Proof. Take ϕ(x) ≡ 1 − e−x , a strictly concave function. Observe, for later use,
that for all x, y ∈ R
³ x + y ´ ϕ(x) + ϕ(y) ³ 1 1 ´
|x−y| |x−y|/2
ϕ − = + e −e e− max{x,y}
2 2 2 2 (4.20)
|x − y|2 − max{x,y}
≥ e
8
THE DALANG–MORTON–WILLINGER THEOREM 7
Let us mention two additional results, which we don’t need in the following:
Corollary 4.23. If (fn )n∈N is a sequence of measurable functions such that
c ≡ sup EP [|fn |] < ∞,
n∈N
then there is a measurable function g : Ω → R as well as a sequence of convex
P
combinations gn ∈ conv(fm , m ≥ n) such that gn −→ g.
Proof. If fn ≥ 0 and EP [fn ] ≤ c, then for all h ∈ C ≡ conv(fn , n ∈ N) we have
EP [h] ≤ c. The set C is bounded in L1 (P) and hence bounded in probability. This
shows the corollary for non-negative functions as a consequence of Lemma 4.18.
The general case is a repeated
P application of the non-negative case. Indeed, first
+
find convex combinations m≥n λnm fm that converge almost surely. Now apply
P −
the first part to the sequence of functions qn ≡ m≥n λnm fm . This gives convex
P n
combinations m≥n µm qm that converge almost surely. Since convex P combinations
n +
of
P convex combinations are
Pmconvex combinations, we find that m≥n νm fm and
n −
ν
m≥n m m f with ν n
m ≡ µn k
λ
k=n k m both converge almost surely. (Why did we
use almost sure convergence and not just convergence in probability?)
The above corollary is valid in a much more refined way as shown by Komlós.
Theorem 4.24 (Komlós’ Theorem [4]). If (fn )n∈N is a bounded sequence in the
space L1 (P), then there is a function f ∈ L1 (P) and a subsequence (fnk )k∈N such
that for every subsequence (nkl )l∈N we have
1 X
N
fnkl −→
a.s.
f as N → ∞.
N
l=1
Clearly A is the disjoint union of (An,m )m≥n . For each n we now define
X αm
gn = 1A + αn 1Ac . (5.2)
kαm k n,m
m≥n
Suppose now that hgn , Xi+ does not tend to zero in probability and suppose by
selecting a subsequence if necessary, that for some c > 0 and for all n ∈ N
P[hgn , Xi+ > c] ≥ δ > 0. (5.5)
Due to (5.3) we can find n0 ∈ N so that for all n ≥ n0
· ¸
− cδ δ
P sup hgm , Xi > < . (5.6)
m≥n 4 8
If a1 , . . . , an ∈ R and µ1 , . . . , µn ∈ [0, 1] with µ1 + · · · + µn = 1, then we have
µX n ¶+ X n X n Xn X n
− − −
µi ai ≥ µi ai = µi ai −
+
µi ai ≥ i − max{a1 , . . . , an }.
µi a+
i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1
P
Now take any kn ∈ conv(gm , m ≥ n). We can write kn = m≥n λnm gm with λnm ≥ 0
P
satisfying m≥n λnm = 1. Then we get for every n ≥ n0
· ¸ ·X ¸
cδ − cδ
P hkn , Xi >
+
≥P λm hgm , Xi − sup hgm , Xi >
n +
4 m≥n 4
m≥n
·X ¸ · ¸
cδ − cδ
≥P λm hgm , Xi >
n +
− P sup hgm , Xi > (5.7)
2 m≥n 4
m≥n
δ δ δ
≥
− = ,
4 8 8
where we used (5.5), Schachermayer’s lemma (Lemma 4.16) and (5.6) for the last
estimate.
Due to (5.4), we may apply Corollary 4.22 repeatedly for every of the d dimen-
P
sions to find kn ∈ conv(gm , m ≥ n) so that kn −→ k for some F0 -measurable
function k : Ω → R . By convexity and (5.3) we have
d
Theorem 5.8. Suppose that X satisfies the no-arbitrage condition. If (αi )i∈I is
a collection of F0 -measurable Rd -valued functions and if { hαi , Xi+ | i ∈ I } is
bounded in probability, then { hαi , Xi− | i ∈ I } is bounded in probability, too. It
follows that { hαi , Xi | i ∈ I } is bounded in probability and hence { kP αi k | i ∈ I }
(with the orthogonal projection P as in Lemma 4.11) is also bounded in probability.
Proof. Suppose that { hαi , Xi− | i ∈ I } is not bounded and select ε > 0 and a
P
sequence (αn )n∈N so that P[hαn , Xi− > n] ≥ ε. Since hαn /n, Xi+ −→ 0, we have
− P
by the previous theorem hαn /n, Xi −→ 0, a contradiction. The last part of the
theorem is proved in a similar way using Lemma 4.11(c).
The next two theorems are needed for Schachermayer’s proof in Section 6;
Rogers’ proof in Section 7 works without them.
Theorem 5.9. Suppose that X satisfies the no-arbitrage condition. Then K − L0+
is closed in probability.
Proof. Take (αn )n∈N F0 -measurable and hn ≥ 0 so that fn ≡ hαn , Xi − hn → f
in probability. By selecting a subsequence we may suppose that this sequence
even converges almost surely. Clearly this implies hαn , Xi− ≤ fn− and hence
supn∈N hαn , Xi− ≤ k for some measurable function k. It is clear that all the ele-
ments of the set
{ hβ, Xi− | β ∈ conv(αn , n ∈ N)},
remain bounded by the same function k. From Theorem 5.8 it then follows that
the set
{ hβ, Xi | β ∈ conv(αn , n ∈ N) } = conv(hαn , Xi, n ∈ N)
is also bounded in probability. Lemma 4.18 applied to conv(hαn , Xi + k, n ∈ N)
then implies the existence of a sequence βn ∈ conv(αm , m ≥ n), n ∈ N, say
X
βn = λnm αm ,
m≥n
6. Schachermayer’s proof
Proof of Theorem 2.2 for T = 1. Take Q ∼ P so that dQ/dP ∈ L∞ and kXk ∈
L1 (Q). From Theorem 5.9 it now follows that G ≡ L1 (Q) ∩ (K − L0+ ) is closed in
L1 (Q) and from the no-arbitrage condition it follows that G ∩ L1+ (Q) = {0}. We
now apply Yan’s separation theorem in order to obtain a function ϕ ∈ L∞ with
ϕ > 0 almost surely and
∀ f ∈ K ∩ L1 (Q) : EQ [ϕf ] ≤ 0.
Since K ∩ L1 (Q) is a vector space, this implies EQ [ϕf ] = 0 for all f ∈ K ∩ L1 (Q).
We normalize ϕ so that dQ1 = ϕ dQ defines a probability measure. Clearly Q1 ∼ P,
dQ1 /dP ∈ L∞ and kXk ∈ L1 (Q1 ). Obviously for all A ∈ F0 and all coordinates
i ∈ {1, . . . , d},
1A X i ∈ K ∩ L1 (Q).
We therefore have EQ1 [1A X i ] = 0 for all A ∈ F0 , which means EQ1 [X | F0 ] = 0.
7. Rogers’ proof
Proof of Theorem 2.2 for T = 1. We first change to the probability measure Q ∼ P
given by dQ/dP = exp(−kXk2 )/EP [exp(−kXk2 )]. Then EQ [exp(kXk2 )] < ∞. For
each F0 -measurable α : Ω → Rd we define
£ ¤
ϕ(α) = EQ exp hα, Xi .
The function ϕ takes values in R+ . Since ϕ(0) = 1, we have that
γ ≡ inf{ ϕ(α) | α F0 -measurable, Rd -valued } < ∞.
We want to show that the infimum γ is attained. Take a sequence (αn )n∈N so
that ∞ > ϕ(αn ) → γ. We may of course suppose that αn = P αn as Lemma 4.11(b)
shows. Using x+ ≤ ex for x ∈ R, the convexity of the exponential function and
Jensen’s inequality, it follows that for each n ∈ N and each β ∈ conv(αm , m ≥ n)
we have that
EQ [hβ, Xi+ ] ≤ ϕ(β) ≤ sup ϕ(αm ) = γ + εn ≤ γ + sup εm < ∞, (7.1)
m≥n m∈N
12 F. DELBAEN
where εn & 0. Hence the set { hβ, Xi+ | β ∈ conv(αn , n ∈ N) } is bounded in L1 (Q)
and therefore bounded in probability. Theorem 5.8 then shows that the convex set
{ hβ, Xi | β ∈ conv(αn , n ∈ N) } = conv(hαn , Xi, n ∈ N)
is bounded in probability. The estimate (7.1) also shows that
conv(hαn , Xi+ , n ∈ N)
is bounded in L1 (Q) and therefore bounded in probability. Since
hαn , Xi− = hαn , Xi+ − hαn , Xi,
we have
conv(hαn , Xi− , n ∈ N) ⊂ conv(hαn , Xi+ , n ∈ N) + conv(−hαn , Xi, n ∈ N),
hence conv(hαn , Xi− , n ∈ N) is bounded in probability, too. By Lemma 4.18 we
can therefore
P find convex combinations,
P defined by non-negative
P sequences (λnm )m≥n
with m≥n λnm = 1, such that m≥n λnm hαm , Xi+ and m≥n λnm hαm , Xi− both
P
converge in probability. If we put δn ≡ m≥n λnm αm ∈ conv(αm , m ≥ n), then
we obtain that (hδn , Xi)n∈N converges in probability. By Stricker’s lemma (Lemma
P
4.14) there exists an F0 -measurable δ : Ω → Rd such that hδn , Xi −→ hδ, Xi. By
Lemma 4.11(b) we may assume that δ = P δ. Since δn = P δn , Lemma 4.11(c)
P
implies that δn −→ δ. By passing to a subsequence if necessary, we may assume
δn −→ δ. Of course, by Fatou’s lemma and (7.1),
a.s.
£ ¤ £ ¤
ϕ(δ) = EQ exp hδ, Xi ≤ lim inf EQ exp hδn , Xi ≤ γ + lim εn = γ.
n→∞ n→∞
is in L∞ , because
ehδ,Xi 1{n−1≤kδk<n} kn−1 e−n /4 −kXk2
= e−(kXk−n/2) ≤ 1.
2 2
/4−kXk2 2
e ≤ enkXk−n
If we normalize ξ so that EP [ξ] = 1 and define Q1 so that dQ1 /dP = ξ, we have
dQ1 /dP ∈ L∞ and EQ1 [X | F0 ] = 0. This completes the proof.
References
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discrete time, Insurance Math. Econom. 11 (1992), no. 4, 249–257.
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