Probability

Terminology and Calculating

Probability
Terminology
• Probability:
The likelihood of something happening

• Experiment:
The method of testing probability. An example is tossing a coin or a dice

• Trial:
In an experiment, every time the dice is thrown would be called a trial. A
single experiment involves many trials.

• Outcomes:
The result of each trial is called an outcome. If a coin were
tossed the outcome will be head or tail.
• Sample Space:
A list of all the possible outcomes.

Example:
If two coins are tossed there are 4 possible outcomes
Head and Head Head and Tails
Tails and Tails Tails and Head

The sample space will be written as:

S = {HH; TT; HT; TH}

The number of possible outcomes will be written as:

n(S) = 4
• Event:
A set of specific outcomes.

Example:
In an experiment where a dice is thrown, the sample space would be:
S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6}

In the event you are looking for is obtaining an odd number, the set A, of
favourable outcomes would be written as:

A = {1; 3; 5}
Different types of events:
1) Impossible events
Impossible events have a probability of 0.
A = {obtaining a 10 when rolling a die}
∴ A = ∅ or A = { }

2) Even chance events

Events which have a 50% chance of occurring.
B = {obtaining a head or tail when tossing a coin}

3) Certain events
Events which have a 100% chance of occurring.
C = {The sun rising tomorrow}
4) Mutually exclusive events
If two events are mutually exclusive, they cannot happen in the same trial. In
other words, the events have nothing in common.
Rolling a dice:

A = {Getting more than 3}

B = {Getting 3 or less} Mutually exclusive events

S(A) = {4; 5; 6}
S(B) = {1; 2; 3}

5) Complementary events
The complementary event of the set A is the same as not obtaining the set A.
For events to be complementary the have to be mutually exclusive.

Rolling a dice:
A = {Getting more than 3}
S(A) = {4; 5; 6}
∴S(A’) = {1; 2; 3}
6) Elementary and Composite events
With elementary events there is only one way an event can happen.

With composite events there is more than one way that an event can
happen.

Rolling a dice:

A = {Getting the number 2} Elementary event

B = {Getting prime numbers} Composite event
S(A) = {2}
S(B) = {2; 3; 5}
 The probability scale:

1
Fraction: 0 2 1
Decimal: 0 0,5 1
Percentage: 0% 50% 100%
| | |
Impossible Even Chance Certain
 Calculating Probability
Eg 1: In an experiment a fair dice is thrown.

a) Write down the sample space for the experiment:

b) Determine the probability of getting a 5:

c) Determine the probability of getting an odd number:

d) Determine the probability of getting a 21:

e) Determine the probability of getting a number less than 3:

 Eg 2: In an experiment 8 balls numbered 1 – 8 are placed in a bag.
Event A: Drawing a prime number.
Event B: Drawing a factor of 2.
Event C: Drawing an even number.
Event D: Drawing a number bigger or equal to 5.
Event E: Drawing a number 0.
Event F: Drawing a prime number or a multiple of 4.
1) Write down the following: 2) Determine the following:

a) S(A) a) P(A) d) P(D)

b) S(B) b) P(B) e) P(E)

c) S(C)
f) P(F)
c) P(C)
d) S(D)
d) S(E)
f) S(F)
Eg 3: Consider the word THEORETICAL. A letter is chosen from this word.

(a) Find the probability the letter chosen is E.

(b) Find the probability the letter chosen is not E.

(c) Find the probability the letter chosen is a vowel.

(d) Find the probability the letter chosen is H.

Homework: Ex 1 p.259 a – h
Ex 5 p.272 a, c, e, g, k, l