/ /

150 Chapter 5 Some Discrete Probability Distributions

Example 5.7: The complexity of arrivals and departures of planes at an airport is such that
computer simulation is often used to model the “ideal” conditions. For a certain
airport with three runways, it is known that in the ideal setting the following are
the probabilities that the individual runways are accessed by a randomly arriving
commercial jet:
Runway 1: p1 = 2/9,
Runway 2: p2 = 1/6,
Runway 3: p3 = 11/18.
What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving airplanes are distributed in the
following fashion?
Runway 1: 2 airplanes,
Runway 2: 1 airplane,
Runway 3: 3 airplanes
Solution : Using the multinomial distribution, we have
     2  1  3
2 1 11 6 2 1 11
f 2, 1, 3; , , , 6 =
9 6 18 2, 1, 3 9 6 18
6! 22 1 113
= · 2 · · 3 = 0.1127.
2! 1! 3! 9 6 18
Exercises

5.1 A random variable X that assumes the values 5.5 According to Chemical Engineering Progress
x1 , x2 , . . . , xk is called a discrete uniform random vari- (November 1990), approximately 30% of all pipework
able if its probability mass function is f (x) = k1 for all failures in chemical plants are caused by operator error.
of x1 , x2 , . . . , xk and 0 otherwise. Find the mean and (a) What is the probability that out of the next 20
variance of X. pipework failures at least 10 are due to operator
error?
5.2 Twelve people are given two identical speakers,
which they are asked to listen to for differences, if any. (b) What is the probability that no more than 4 out of
Suppose that these people answer simply by guessing. 20 such failures are due to operator error?
Find the probability that three people claim to have (c) Suppose, for a particular plant, that out of the ran-
heard a difference between the two speakers. dom sample of 20 such failures, exactly 5 are due
to operator error. Do you feel that the 30% figure
5.3 An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to super- stated above applies to this plant? Comment.
vise a certain project by selecting a tag at random from
a box containing 10 tags numbered from 1 to 10. Find 5.6 According to a survey by the Administrative
the formula for the probability distribution of X rep- Management Society, one-half of U.S. companies give
resenting the number on the tag that is drawn. What employees 4 weeks of vacation after they have been
is the probability that the number drawn is less than with the company for 15 years. Find the probabil-
4? ity that among 6 companies surveyed at random, the
number that give employees 4 weeks of vacation after
5.4 In a certain city district, the need for money to 15 years of employment is
buy drugs is stated as the reason for 75% of all thefts.
Find the probability that among the next 5 theft cases (a) anywhere from 2 to 5;
reported in this district, (b) fewer than 3.
(a) exactly 2 resulted from the need for money to buy
drugs; 5.7 One prominent physician claims that 70% of those
(b) at most 3 resulted from the need for money to buy with lung cancer are chain smokers. If his assertion is
drugs. correct,
(a) find the probability that of 10 such patients
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Exercises 151

recently admitted to a hospital, fewer than half are 5.14 The percentage of wins for the Chicago Bulls
chain smokers; basketball team going into the playoffs for the 1996–97
(b) find the probability that of 20 such patients re- season was 87.7. Round the 87.7 to 90 in order to use
cently admitted to a hospital, fewer than half are Table A.1.
chain smokers. (a) What is the probability that the Bulls sweep (4-0)
the initial best-of-7 playoff series?
5.8 According to a study published by a group of Uni- (b) What is the probability that the Bulls win the ini-
versity of Massachusetts sociologists, approximately tial best-of-7 playoff series?
60% of the Valium users in the state of Massachusetts (c) What very important assumption is made in an-
first took Valium for psychological problems. Find the swering parts (a) and (b)?
probability that among the next 8 users from this state
who are interviewed,
5.15 It is known that 60% of mice inoculated with a
(a) exactly 3 began taking Valium for psychological serum are protected from a certain disease. If 5 mice
problems; are inoculated, find the probability that
(b) at least 5 began taking Valium for problems that (a) none contracts the disease;
were not psychological.
(b) fewer than 2 contract the disease;
(c) more than 3 contract the disease.
5.9 In testing a certain kind of truck tire over rugged
terrain, it is found that 25% of the trucks fail to com-
5.16 Suppose that airplane engines operate indepen-
plete the test run without a blowout. Of the next 15
dently and fail with probability equal to 0.4. Assuming
trucks tested, find the probability that
that a plane makes a safe flight if at least one-half of its
(a) from 3 to 6 have blowouts; engines run, determine whether a 4-engine plane or a 2-
(b) fewer than 4 have blowouts; engine plane has the higher probability for a successful
(c) more than 5 have blowouts. flight.

5.17 If X represents the number of people in Exer-

5.10 A nationwide survey of college seniors by the cise 5.13 who believe that antidepressants do not cure
University of Michigan revealed that almost 70% dis- but only cover up the real problem, find the mean and
approve of daily pot smoking, according to a report in variance of X when 5 people are selected at random.
Parade. If 12 seniors are selected at random and asked
their opinion, find the probability that the number who 5.18 (a) In Exercise 5.9, how many of the 15 trucks
disapprove of smoking pot daily is would you expect to have blowouts?
(a) anywhere from 7 to 9; (b) What is the variance of the number of blowouts ex-
(b) at most 5; perienced by the 15 trucks? What does that mean?
(c) not less than 8.
5.19 As a student drives to school, he encounters a
traffic signal. This traffic signal stays green for 35 sec-
5.11 The probability that a patient recovers from a onds, yellow for 5 seconds, and red for 60 seconds. As-
delicate heart operation is 0.9. What is the probabil- sume that the student goes to school each weekday
ity that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this between 8:00 and 8:30 a.m. Let X1 be the number of
operation survive? times he encounters a green light, X2 be the number
of times he encounters a yellow light, and X3 be the
5.12 A traffic control engineer reports that 75% of the number of times he encounters a red light. Find the
vehicles passing through a checkpoint are from within joint distribution of X1 , X2 , and X3 .
the state. What is the probability that fewer than 4 of
the next 9 vehicles are from out of state? 5.20 According to USA Today (March 18, 1997), of 4
million workers in the general workforce, 5.8% tested
5.13 A national study that examined attitudes about positive for drugs. Of those testing positive, 22.5%
antidepressants revealed that approximately 70% of re- were cocaine users and 54.4% marijuana users.
spondents believe “antidepressants do not really cure (a) What is the probability that of 10 workers testing
anything, they just cover up the real trouble.” Accord- positive, 2 are cocaine users, 5 are marijuana users,
ing to this study, what is the probability that at least and 3 are users of other drugs?
3 of the next 5 people selected at random will hold this (b) What is the probability that of 10 workers testing
opinion? positive, all are marijuana users?
152 Chapter 5 Some Discrete Probability Distributions

(c) What is the probability that of 10 workers testing 5.25 Suppose that for a very large shipment of
positive, none is a cocaine user? integrated-circuit chips, the probability of failure for
any one chip is 0.10. Assuming that the assumptions
5.21 The surface of a circular dart board has a small underlying the binomial distributions are met, find the
center circle called the bull’s-eye and 20 pie-shaped re- probability that at most 3 chips fail in a random sample
gions numbered from 1 to 20. Each of the pie-shaped of 20.
regions is further divided into three parts such that a
person throwing a dart that lands in a specific region 5.26 Assuming that 6 in 10 automobile accidents are
scores the value of the number, double the number, due mainly to a speed violation, find the probabil-
or triple the number, depending on which of the three ity that among 8 automobile accidents, 6 will be due
parts the dart hits. If a person hits the bull’s-eye with mainly to a speed violation
probability 0.01, hits a double with probability 0.10, (a) by using the formula for the binomial distribution;
hits a triple with probability 0.05, and misses the dart (b) by using Table A.1.
board with probability 0.02, what is the probability
that 7 throws will result in no bull’s-eyes, no triples, a 5.27 If the probability that a fluorescent light has a
double twice, and a complete miss once? useful life of at least 800 hours is 0.9, find the proba-
bilities that among 20 such lights
5.22 According to a genetics theory, a certain cross of
guinea pigs will result in red, black, and white offspring (a) exactly 18 will have a useful life of at least 800
in the ratio 8:4:4. Find the probability that among 8 hours;
offspring, 5 will be red, 2 black, and 1 white. (b) at least 15 will have a useful life of at least 800
hours;
5.23 The probabilities are 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.1, re- (c) at least 2 will not have a useful life of at least 800
spectively, that a delegate to a certain convention ar- hours.
rived by air, bus, automobile, or train. What is the
probability that among 9 delegates randomly selected 5.28 A manufacturer knows that on average 20% of
at this convention, 3 arrived by air, 3 arrived by bus, the electric toasters produced require repairs within 1
1 arrived by automobile, and 2 arrived by train? year after they are sold. When 20 toasters are ran-
domly selected, find appropriate numbers x and y such
5.24 A safety engineer claims that only 40% of all that
workers wear safety helmets when they eat lunch at (a) the probability that at least x of them will require
the workplace. Assuming that this claim is right, find repairs is less than 0.5;
the probability that 4 of 6 workers randomly chosen
will be wearing their helmets while having lunch at the (b) the probability that at least y of them will not re-
workplace. quire repairs is greater than 0.8.

5.3 Hypergeometric Distribution

The simplest way to view the distinction between the binomial distribution of
Section 5.2 and the hypergeometric distribution is to note the way the sampling is
done. The types of applications for the hypergeometric are very similar to those
for the binomial distribution. We are interested in computing probabilities for the
number of observations that fall into a particular category. But in the case of the
binomial distribution, independence among trials is required. As a result, if that
distribution is applied to, say, sampling from a lot of items (deck of cards, batch
of production items), the sampling must be done with replacement of each item
after it is observed. On the other hand, the hypergeometric distribution does not
require independence and is based on sampling done without replacement.
Applications for the hypergeometric distribution are found in many areas, with
heavy use in acceptance sampling, electronic testing, and quality assurance. Ob-
viously, in many of these fields, testing is done at the expense of the item being
tested. That is, the item is destroyed and hence cannot be replaced in the sample.
Thus, sampling without replacement is necessary. A simple example with playing
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Exercises 157

Exercises

5.29 A homeowner plants 6 bulbs selected at ran- 5.37 Suppose that the manufacturing company of Ex-
dom from a box containing 5 tulip bulbs and 4 daf- ercise 5.36 decides to change its acceptance scheme.
fodil bulbs. What is the probability that he planted 2 Under the new scheme, an inspector takes 1 item at
daffodil bulbs and 4 tulip bulbs? random, inspects it, and then replaces it in the box;
a second inspector does likewise. Finally, a third in-
5.30 To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places spector goes through the same procedure. The box is
6 narcotic tablets in a bottle containing 9 vitamin not shipped if any of the three inspectors find a de-
tablets that are similar in appearance. If the customs fective. Answer the questions in Exercise 5.36 for this
official selects 3 of the tablets at random for analysis, new plan.
what is the probability that the traveler will be arrested
for illegal possession of narcotics? 5.38 Among 150 IRS employees in a large city, only
30 are women. If 10 of the employees are chosen at
5.31 A random committee of size 3 is selected from random to provide free tax assistance for the residents
4 doctors and 2 nurses. Write a formula for the prob- of this city, use the binomial approximation to the hy-
ability distribution of the random variable X repre- pergeometric distribution to find the probability that
senting the number of doctors on the committee. Find at least 3 women are selected.
P (2 ≤ X ≤ 3).
5.39 An annexation suit against a county subdivision
5.32 From a lot of 10 missiles, 4 are selected at ran- of 1200 residences is being considered by a neighboring
dom and fired. If the lot contains 3 defective missiles city. If the occupants of half the residences object to
that will not fire, what is the probability that being annexed, what is the probability that in a ran-
dom sample of 10 at least 3 favor the annexation suit?
(a) all 4 will fire?
(b) at most 2 will not fire? 5.40 It is estimated that 4000 of the 10,000 voting
residents of a town are against a new sales tax. If 15
5.33 If 7 cards are dealt from an ordinary deck of 52 eligible voters are selected at random and asked their
playing cards, what is the probability that opinion, what is the probability that at most 7 favor
(a) exactly 2 of them will be face cards? the new tax?
(b) at least 1 of them will be a queen? 5.41 A nationwide survey of 17,000 college seniors by
the University of Michigan revealed that almost 70%
5.34 What is the probability that a waitress will disapprove of daily pot smoking. If 18 of these seniors
refuse to serve alcoholic beverages to only 2 minors are selected at random and asked their opinion, what
if she randomly checks the IDs of 5 among 9 students, is the probability that more than 9 but fewer than 14
4 of whom are minors? disapprove of smoking pot daily?

5.35 A company is interested in evaluating its cur- 5.42 Find the probability of being dealt a bridge hand
rent inspection procedure for shipments of 50 identical of 13 cards containing 5 spades, 2 hearts, 3 diamonds,
items. The procedure is to take a sample of 5 and and 3 clubs.
pass the shipment if no more than 2 are found to be
defective. What proportion of shipments with 20% de- 5.43 A foreign student club lists as its members 2
fectives will be accepted? Canadians, 3 Japanese, 5 Italians, and 2 Germans. If
a committee of 4 is selected at random, find the prob-
5.36 A manufacturing company uses an acceptance ability that
scheme on items from a production line before they (a) all nationalities are represented;
are shipped. The plan is a two-stage one. Boxes of 25
(b) all nationalities except Italian are represented.
items are readied for shipment, and a sample of 3 items
is tested for defectives. If any defectives are found, the
entire box is sent back for 100% screening. If no defec- 5.44 An urn contains 3 green balls, 2 blue balls, and
tives are found, the box is shipped. 4 red balls. In a random sample of 5 balls, find the
probability that both blue balls and at least 1 red ball
(a) What is the probability that a box containing 3
are selected.
defectives will be shipped?
(b) What is the probability that a box containing only 5.45 Biologists doing studies in a particular environ-
1 defective will be sent back for screening? ment often tag and release subjects in order to estimate
158 Chapter 5 Some Discrete Probability Distributions

the size of a population or the prevalence of certain 5.47 A government task force suspects that some
features in the population. Ten animals of a certain manufacturing companies are in violation of federal
population thought to be extinct (or near extinction) pollution regulations with regard to dumping a certain
are caught, tagged, and released in a certain region. type of product. Twenty firms are under suspicion but
After a period of time, a random sample of 15 of this not all can be inspected. Suppose that 3 of the firms
type of animal is selected in the region. What is the are in violation.
probability that 5 of those selected are tagged if there (a) What is the probability that inspection of 5 firms
are 25 animals of this type in the region? will find no violations?
(b) What is the probability that the plan above will
5.46 A large company has an inspection system for
find two violations?
the batches of small compressors purchased from ven-
dors. A batch typically contains 15 compressors. In the
inspection system, a random sample of 5 is selected and 5.48 Every hour, 10,000 cans of soda are filled by a
all are tested. Suppose there are 2 faulty compressors machine, among which 300 underfilled cans are pro-
in the batch of 15. duced. Each hour, a sample of 30 cans is randomly
selected and the number of ounces of soda per can is
(a) What is the probability that for a given sample checked. Denote by X the number of cans selected
there will be 1 faulty compressor? that are underfilled. Find the probability that at least
(b) What is the probability that inspection will dis- 1 underfilled can will be among those sampled.
cover both faulty compressors?

5.4 Negative Binomial and Geometric Distributions

Let us consider an experiment where the properties are the same as those listed for
a binomial experiment, with the exception that the trials will be repeated until a
fixed number of successes occur. Therefore, instead of the probability of x successes
in n trials, where n is fixed, we are now interested in the probability that the kth
success occurs on the xth trial. Experiments of this kind are called negative
binomial experiments.
As an illustration, consider the use of a drug that is known to be effective
in 60% of the cases where it is used. The drug will be considered a success if
it is effective in bringing some degree of relief to the patient. We are interested
in finding the probability that the fifth patient to experience relief is the seventh
patient to receive the drug during a given week. Designating a success by S and a
failure by F , a possible order of achieving the desired result is SF SSSF S, which
occurs with probability
(0.6)(0.4)(0.6)(0.6)(0.6)(0.4)(0.6) = (0.6)5 (0.4)2 .
We could list all possible orders by rearranging the F ’s and S’s except for the last
outcome, which must be the fifth success. The total number of possible orders
is equal to the number of partitions of the first six trials into two groups with 2
failures assigned to the
  one group and 4 successes assigned to the other group.
This can be done in 64 = 15 mutually exclusive ways. Hence, if X represents the
outcome on which the fifth success occurs, then
 
6
P (X = 7) = (0.6)5 (0.4)2 = 0.1866.
4

What Is the Negative Binomial Random Variable?

The number X of trials required to produce k successes in a negative binomial
experiment is called a negative binomial random variable, and its probability
 / /

164 Chapter 5 Some Discrete Probability Distributions

Example 5.19: In a certain industrial facility, accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the
probability of an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent
of each other.
(a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an
accident on one day?
(b) What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident?
Solution : Let X be a binomial random variable with n = 400 and p = 0.005. Thus, np = 2.
Using the Poisson approximation,
(a) P (X = 1) = e−2 21 = 0.271 and

3
(b) P (X ≤ 3) = e−2 2x /x! = 0.857.
x=0

Example 5.20: In a manufacturing process where glass products are made, defects or bubbles
occur, occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known
that, on average, 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles.
What is the probability that a random sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items
possessing bubbles?
Solution : This is essentially a binomial experiment with n = 8000 and p = 0.001. Since
p is very close to 0 and n is quite large, we shall approximate with the Poisson
distribution using
μ = (8000)(0.001) = 8.
Hence, if X represents the number of bubbles, we have
 6
P (X < 7) = b(x; 8000, 0.001) ≈ p(x; 8) = 0.3134.
x=0

Exercises

5.49 The probability that a person living in a certain disease. If the probability of contracting the disease is
city owns a dog is estimated to be 0.3. Find the prob- 1/6, what is the probability that 8 mice are required?
ability that the tenth person randomly interviewed in
that city is the fifth one to own a dog. 5.53 An inventory study determines that, on aver-
age, demands for a particular item at a warehouse are
5.50 Find the probability that a person flipping a coin made 5 times per day. What is the probability that on
gets a given day this item is requested
(a) the third head on the seventh flip; (a) more than 5 times?
(b) the first head on the fourth flip. (b) not at all?

5.51 Three people toss a fair coin and the odd one 5.54 According to a study published by a group of
pays for coffee. If the coins all turn up the same, they University of Massachusetts sociologists, about two-
are tossed again. Find the probability that fewer than thirds of the 20 million persons in this country who
4 tosses are needed. take Valium are women. Assuming this figure to be a
valid estimate, find the probability that on a given day
5.52 A scientist inoculates mice, one at a time, with the fifth prescription written by a doctor for Valium is
a disease germ until he finds 2 that have contracted the
(a) the first prescribing Valium for a woman;
 / /

Exercises 165

(b) the third prescribing Valium for a woman. find the probability that
(a) fewer than 5 fail the test;
5.55 The probability that a student pilot passes the (b) 8, 9, or 10 fail the test.
written test for a private pilot’s license is 0.7. Find the
probability that a given student will pass the test
5.63 Find the mean and variance of the random vari-
(a) on the third try; able X in Exercise 5.58, representing the number of
(b) before the fourth try. hurricanes per year to hit a certain area of the eastern
United States.
5.56 On average, 3 traffic accidents per month occur 5.64 Find the mean and variance of the random vari-
at a certain intersection. What is the probability that able X in Exercise 5.61, representing the number of
in any given month at this intersection persons among 10,000 who make an error in preparing
(a) exactly 5 accidents will occur? their income tax returns.
(b) fewer than 3 accidents will occur? 5.65 An automobile manufacturer is concerned about
(c) at least 2 accidents will occur? a fault in the braking mechanism of a particular model.
The fault can, on rare occasions, cause a catastrophe at
5.57 On average, a textbook author makes two word- high speed. The distribution of the number of cars per
processing errors per page on the first draft of her text- year that will experience the catastrophe is a Poisson
book. What is the probability that on the next page random variable with λ = 5.
she will make (a) What is the probability that at most 3 cars per year
(a) 4 or more errors? will experience a catastrophe?
(b) no errors? (b) What is the probability that more than 1 car per
year will experience a catastrophe?
5.58 A certain area of the eastern United States is, 5.66 Changes in airport procedures require consid-
on average, hit by 6 hurricanes a year. Find the prob- erable planning. Arrival rates of aircraft are impor-
ability that in a given year that area will be hit by tant factors that must be taken into account. Suppose
(a) fewer than 4 hurricanes; small aircraft arrive at a certain airport, according to
(b) anywhere from 6 to 8 hurricanes. a Poisson process, at the rate of 6 per hour. Thus, the
Poisson parameter for arrivals over a period of hours is
μ = 6t.
5.59 Suppose the probability that any given person
will believe a tale about the transgressions of a famous (a) What is the probability that exactly 4 small air-
actress is 0.8. What is the probability that craft arrive during a 1-hour period?
(a) the sixth person to hear this tale is the fourth one (b) What is the probability that at least 4 arrive during
to believe it? a 1-hour period?
(b) the third person to hear this tale is the first one to (c) If we define a working day as 12 hours, what is
believe it? the probability that at least 75 small aircraft ar-
rive during a working day?
5.60 The average number of field mice per acre in
a 5-acre wheat field is estimated to be 12. Find the 5.67 The number of customers arriving per hour at a
probability that fewer than 7 field mice are found certain automobile service facility is assumed to follow
a Poisson distribution with mean λ = 7.
(a) on a given acre;
(a) Compute the probability that more than 10 cus-
(b) on 2 of the next 3 acres inspected. tomers will arrive in a 2-hour period.
(b) What is the mean number of arrivals during a
5.61 Suppose that, on average, 1 person in 1000 2-hour period?
makes a numerical error in preparing his or her income
tax return. If 10,000 returns are selected at random 5.68 Consider Exercise 5.62. What is the mean num-
and examined, find the probability that 6, 7, or 8 of ber of students who fail the test?
them contain an error.
5.69 The probability that a person will die when he
5.62 The probability that a student at a local high or she contracts a virus infection is 0.001. Of the next
school fails the screening test for scoliosis (curvature 4000 people infected, what is the mean number who
of the spine) is known to be 0.004. Of the next 1875 will die?
students at the school who are screened for scoliosis,