Welcome to Statistical PERT® Normal Edition

Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT
to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort,
revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance, and more.

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition uses Excel's two normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and
NORM.INV to model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties. To model a wider range of
bell-shaped uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Beta Edition which uses Excel's two beta
distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV. It's freely licensed, too!

This example workbook is intended to help you quickly get started. You can also download
a Quick Start guide for Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. The Quick Start guide explains the
essential things you need to know to use this Statistical PERT® Normal Edition spreadsheet.
Statistical PERT downloads share the same three steps for making a probablistic estimate:

1) Create a 3-point estimate (minimum, most likely, maximum)

2) Render a subjective judgment about the most likely outcome
3) Select any probabilistic planning estimate, or make a risk-based forecast

If you have any questions, suggestions, or comments, I'd love to hear from you!
Contact me!

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
All models are wrong, but some are useful.
George E. P. Box, British statistician (1919-2013)

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.

Mark Twain, American humorist (1835-1910)

New with Version 5 — Dynamically-drawn Cumulative Flow Diagrams!

New with Version 5 — SPERT® Scheduler to create a probabilistic schedule!

Plus:
- New! Some tri-color bell-curve charts have a new zoom feature to resize the chart
- Enhanced! Bell-curve charts use double the data points (200) for smoother graphics
- Additional minor tweaks throughout the spreadsheet
- Indicate whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian (if you care at all!)
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition README for Version 5

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 5 introduces a dynamic, cumulative flow diagram (CFD) worksheet that
any team can use to monitor work that flows through their unique process. The "SPERT® Normal - CFD Charts"
worksheet exposes five process steps (Backlog, Developing, Testing, Deploying, Done), but you can unhide columns
H-V and include up to fifteen more process steps for a total of 20. You can rename any process step to your liking.

Importantly, on the CFD worksheet, the sample data in the Excel Row #6 cannot be deleted without breaking the
dynamically-controlled cell ranges that are used to create the CFD charts. You can overwrite the sample data
with your own data, but you should not delete the sample data in Row #6. (If you accidentally delete the
Row #6 data, just replace it with numeric data to restore the normal functionality of that worksheet).

Another new worksheet in Version 5 is the "SPERT® Normal Scheduler" worksheet. This worksheet was originally
introduced in Version 3 of Statistical PERT® Beta Edition, but it's now included in the Normal Edition, too. The
SPERT Scheduler in this spreadsheet uses the normal distribution to model project task or activity uncertainty.
In this worksheeet, you name only the critical path tasks (or activities) for your project, model each duration
uncertainty, and then select the confidence level you want for each task (or activity) in your project. The SPERT
Scheduler will find the duration estimate that matches your desired confidence level, and create the start and
finish dates for the critical path. Note that this worksheet was built from the "Mixed entry" worksheet.

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition Version 4 introduced a real Monte Carlo simulation worksheet that
will sample a single, random variable for 10,000 trials using an Excel data table (see the SPERT® Normal
MC Simulation tab). That is the only SPERT worksheet that uses Monte Carlo simulation to construct
probabilistic estimates using Excel's normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and NORM.INV.

Because SPERT now includes a data table to support Monte Carlo simulation, this SPERT workbook
may not have the same, speedy performance as it did in Version 3 and earlier versions. If you find that
this workbook's calculations are sluggish, check the Excel setting for "Calculation Options" under the
Formulas tab on the Excel Ribbon and select the option, "Automatic Except for Data Tables." This will
avoid SPERT performing a 10,000 trial simulation everytime you interact with any data entry cells
on any worksheet. If you want to use the Monte Carlo simulation, press F9 to execute a simulation
of 10,000 trials (this is only meaningful with the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet).

You may also delete the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation worksheet if you don't want to use Monte Carlo
simulation, or if you want to reduce the file size of this SPERT spreadsheet file.

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 TL;DR
On the Excel Ribbon, look for the "Calculation"
group under the "Formulas" menu selection.
Then, click the "Calculation Options" button and
select "Automatic Except for Data Tables" to
increase the speed and calculation performance
of all Version 5 SPERT worksheets.

Or, simply delete the SPERT® Normal MC

Simulation worksheet from this Excel workbook.

Deleting the SPERT® Normal MC Simulation

worksheet may improve any performance issues
you may encounter using Excel.
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Super Simple SPERT®
Think about an uncertain outcome. Then, fill-in
Enter your uncertainty's minimum value →
START HERE →→→ Enter your uncertainty's most likely value →
Enter your uncertainty's maximum value →
Validate your values →
Check if this is a bell-shaped uncertainty →
How confident are you in the most likely outcome? →
Here's your implied, bell-shaped curve →
Enter a planning estimate →
Choose either the left- or right-side area →
Your planning estimate of 75 is greater than 11% of all feasible outcomes →
Enter any percentage between 1% and 99% →
The SPERT estimate of 100 is greater than 50% of all feasible outcomes →

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

↑ Rows 36 through 138 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
uper Simple SPERT® Click
Clickfor
forhelp
help

ncertain outcome. Then, fill-in the yellow cells, below:

50 What's the minimum feasible value or outcome for your uncertainty?
100 What's the most-likely-to-occur value or outcome for your uncertainty?
150 What's the maximum feasible value or outcome for your uncertainty?
See a green checkmark? Keep going! See a yellow exclamation mark? Check your 3-point entr
See a green or yellow light? Keep going! See a red light? SPERT won't work well for this estima
Medium confidence Render a subjective judgment (your opinion) about HOW LIKELY the Most Likely outcome really
Based upon your entries, this is how SPERT models your uncertainty using the normal distributio
75 Your planning estimate is any interesting number between your minimum and maximum estim
Show Left-Side Area You can obtain SPERT estimates from either the left- or right-side area of the bell-curve
11% 89% of all feasible outcomes exceed your planning estimate of 75
50% Below, SPERT will calculate an estimate for you
100 50% of all feasible outcomes exceed the SPERT estimate of 100
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

ease notifications
nder the terms of the
ersion 3 of the License,
istered trademarks. If you modify
m the modified spreadsheet.
al copyright notice,
der the GNU General Public License.

ULAR PURPOSE.
n mark? Check your 3-point entry to see if it's correct.
RT won't work well for this estimate scenario.
Y the Most Likely outcome really is
ainty using the normal distribution
ur minimum and maximum estimates
de area of the bell-curve
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition for Beginners
First, enter a three-point estimate for any uncertainty
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240 Use SPERT to estimate task duration, work effort, agile story point

Validate your bell-shaped uncertainty A green checkmark means you have correctly entered
A green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell

The PERT Mean is the average result PERT Mean

(It's also called the expected result) 130

Render a subjective judgment about HOW LIKELY

the Most Likely outcome really is

This normal distribution graph shows the bell-shaped curve for your uncertainty

This is the SPERT Standard Deviation for your uncertainty

Show probabilities from either the left-side area or righ

Enter a Planning Estimate and see its likelihood of occurrence under SPERT

Here, you'll see several SPERT estimates

You can change these cumulative probability ch
Find a SPERT Probablistic Estimate that b

Choose whether to show currency formatting

Do not show currency formatting

That's it! Now try using the (3-Point entry) worksheet!

Or, use the (1-Point entry) worksheet, where two heuristics automatically calculate the Minimum
-50% << Heuristics >> 100% (You can change the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240
Try selecting a different dropdown percentage by clicking above the Minimum and Maximum cell headings,
and see the value changes for the minimum and maximum point-estimates in the green-shaded cells.
The rest of the (1-Point entry) worksheet works exactly the same way as the (3-Point entry) worksheet.

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

↑ Rows 62 through 164 are hidden; they are used to create the bell-curve Sparkline
tion for Beginners Click for help

stimate task duration, work effort, agile story points, cost, revenue,

reen checkmark means you have correctly entered minimum, most likely and maximum point-estimates.
reen or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell-shaped uncertainty. If it's red, try changing your three-point estimate.

The PERT Mean is calculated using the PERT formula: (Minimum + 4(Most Likely) + Maximum) / 6

Most Likely Confidence

Medium confidence This choice influences the implied bell-shaped curve for the uncertainty you are estimating

Curve The bell-shaped curve will change depending on your 3-point estimate and your sub
haped curve for your uncertainty Note: Even if your 3-point estimate indicates skewing, SPERT Normal Edition fits yo

SPERT SD
Standard Deviation for your uncertainty 36
You don't have to know this or do anything with this, but SPERT need

ties from either the left-side area or right-side area Show Left-Side Area Read the red text below to see how th

Planning SPERT Note: This is a cumulative probabi

Estimate Probability the Planning Estimate will be EQUA
ts likelihood of occurrence under SPERT Probability 150 71.1% * This is true if you choose Show Left-Side
you'll see the SPERT Probability that your

Show the likelihood that the SPERT e

Here, you'll see several SPERT estimates with different probabilities of occurrence SPE
You can change these cumulative probability choices (enter values between 1% and 99%) → 10%
nd a SPERT Probablistic Estimate that best matches your risk propensity → 84

cs automatically calculate the Minimum and Maximum point-estimates

e dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)

mum and Maximum cell headings,

es in the green-shaded cells.
he (3-Point entry) worksheet.

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications

odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
erally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).

curve Sparkline
ee-point estimate.

e uncertainty you are estimating

your 3-point estimate and your subjective judgment about the Most Likely outcome (above)
wing, SPERT Normal Edition fits your uncertainty into a normally-distributed, bell-shaped curve

anything with this, but SPERT needs this

d the red text below to see how this choice affects the SPERT estimates

te: This is a cumulative probability, so the SPERT Probability is the likelihood that
Planning Estimate will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN the uncertainty's true value*
his is true if you choose Show Left-Side Area in the dropdown control above. If you choose Show Right-Side Area,
ll see the SPERT Probability that your Planning Estimate will be EXCEEDED by the uncertainty's true value.

Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
176 167 160 154 149
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition 1-Point Entry
-50% << Heuristics >> 100%
ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean
1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8 60 120 240 130
9 60 120 240 130
10 60 120 240 130
600 1,200 2,400 1,300

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%

The lowerbound threshold is 1,118
and the upperbound threshold is 1,482

Between a lowerbound value of 1,118 Miss the pie

and an upperbound value of 1,482 chart? Press
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,44
1,4
1,1
 873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,44
1,4
1,1

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 75.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

198
93
1,206
9
,202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
198
93
1,206
9
,202
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727

Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

he PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications

odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
erally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 50%
114 146 143 141 139 130
107 153 149 145 142 130
97 163 156 151 147 130
90 170 162 156 151 130
84 176 167 160 154 130
76 184 174 166 158 130
67 193 181 171 163 130
57 203 189 178 168 130
48 212 196 184 173 130
36 224 206 192 179 130
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,300

1,118 1,482 1,447 1,420 1,396 1,300

← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition 3-Point Entry

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean

1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8 60 120 240 130
9 60 120 240 130
10 60 120 240 130
600 1,200 2,400 1,300

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%

The lowerbound threshold is 1,118
and the upperbound threshold is 1,482

Between a lowerbound value of 1,118 Miss the pie

and an upperbound value of 1,482 chart? Press
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,44
1,4
1,1
 873
877
882
886
890
894
899
903
907
912
916
920
924
929
933
937
941
946
950
954
958
963
967
971
976
980
984
988
993
997
1,001
1,005
1,010
1,014
1,018
1,023
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,040
1,044
1,048
1,052
1,057
1,061
1,065
1,069
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,087
1,091
1,095
1,099
1,104
1,108
1,112
1,116
1,121
1,125
1,129
1,134
1,138
1,142
1,146
1,151
1,155
1,159
1,163
1,168
1,172
1,176
1,180
1,185
1,189
1,193
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,44
1,4
1,1

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
High confidence 25 150 78.4%
Medium-high confidence 31 150 73.9%
Medium confidence 36 150 71.1%
Medium-low confidence 42 150 68.2%
Low confidence 49 150 65.8%
Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 142 1,500 92.0%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 75.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area to calculate the
probability of all uncertainties together. This is especially useful for creating a
forecast for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval in cell D108, and/or
choose the confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

189
85
1,198
0193
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
189
85
1,198
0193
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,215
1,219
1,223
1,227
1,232
1,236
1,240
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,257
1,262
1,266
1,270
1,274
1,279
1,283
1,287
1,291
1,296
1,300
1,304
1,309
1,313
1,317
1,321
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,343
1,347
1,351
1,355
1,360
1,364
1,368
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,390
1,394
1,398
1,402
1,407
1,411
1,415
1,420
1,424
1,428
1,432
1,437
1,441
1,445
1,449
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,471
1,475
1,479
1,484
1,488
1,492
1,496
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,518
1,522
1,526
1,531
1,535
1,539
1,543
1,548
1,552
1,556
1,560
1,565
1,569
1,573
1,577
1,582
1,586
1,590
1,595
1,599
1,603
1,607
1,612
1,616
1,620
1,624
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,642
1,646
1,650
1,654
1,659
1,663
1,667
1,671
1,676
1,680
1,684
1,688
1,693
1,697
1,701
1,706
1,710
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727

Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

he PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

new release notifications

odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
erally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
 Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
114 146 143 141 139 137
107 153 149 145 142 139
97 163 156 151 147 143
90 170 162 156 151 146
84 176 167 160 154 149
76 184 174 166 158 152
67 193 181 171 163 156
57 203 189 178 168 160
48 212 196 184 173 163
36 224 206 192 179 168
776 1,824 1,723 1,644 1,576 1,514

1,118 1,482 1,447 1,420 1,396 1,375

701
97
1,710
3,706
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
701
97
1,710
3,706
1,714
1,718
1,723
1,727
← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Mixed entry
-50% < Heuristics > 100%
ID Min % Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max %
1 60 120 240
2 60 120 240
3 60 120 240
4 -10% 108 120 144 20%
5 -25% 90 120 160 160
6 40 40 120 200 200
7 80 80 120 210 75%
8 60 120 240
9 60 120 240
10 60 120 240
678 1,200 2,154

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 80%

After you finish entering y
The lowerbound threshold is 1,106 to calculate the probabilit
and the upperbound threshold is 1,438 is especially useful for cre
project, for example.

Between a lowerbound value of 1,106 Miss the pie Choose the confidence yo
in cell F108, and/or choos
and an upperbound value of 1,438 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in
the range probability is 80% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 10% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 10% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combin

884
888
892
895
899
903
907
911
915
919
923
927
930
934
938
942
946
950
954
958
961
965
969
973
977
981
985
989
993
996
1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1
 884
888
892
895
899
903
907
911
915
919
923
927
930
934
938
942
946
950
954
958
961
965
969
973
977
981
985
989
993
996
1,000
1,004
1,008
1,012
1,016
1,020
1,024
1,027
1,031
1,035
1,039
1,043
1,047
1,051
1,055
1,059
1,062
1,066
1,070
1,074
1,078
1,082
1,086
1,090
1,093
1,097
1,101
1,105
1,109
1,113
1,117
1,121
1,124
1,128
1,132
1,136
1,140
1,144
1,148
1,152
1,156
1,159
1,163
1,167
1,171
1,175
1,179
1,183
1,187
1,190
1,194
1,198
1,202
1,206
1,210
1,214
1,218
1,222
1,225
1,229
1,233
1,237
1,241
1,245
1,249
1,253
1,256
1,260
1,264
1,268
1,272
1,276
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,41
1,4
1,1

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence colum
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help Show Left-Side Area

Planning SPERT
PERT Mean Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
130 Near certainty 13 150 94.2%
130 Very high confidence 18 150 86.7%
130 High confidence 25 150 78.4%
122 Medium-high confidence 10 10 150 99.7%
122 Medium confidence 14 150 97.9%
120 Medium-low confidence 38 150 78.8%
128 Low confidence 36 150 72.9%
130 Very low confidence 57 150 63.7%
130 Extremely low confidence 64 150 62.3%
130 Guesstimate 73 150 60.8%
1,272 © 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 129 1,500 96.1%

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,400 83.9%

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this area
to calculate the probability of all uncertainties together. This
is especially useful for creating a forecast for an entire
project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence interval

in cell F108, and/or choose the confidence lower and
upperbound thresholds in cells F112 and F113.

bution of All Rows Combined

1,272
60
6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660
1,272
60
6268
1,276
64
1,280
1,284
1,288
1,291
1,295
1,299
1,303
1,307
1,311
1,315
1,319
1,322
1,326
1,330
1,334
1,338
1,342
1,346
1,350
1,354
1,357
1,361
1,365
1,369
1,373
1,377
1,381
1,385
1,388
1,392
1,396
1,400
1,404
1,408
1,412
1,416
1,420
1,423
1,427
1,431
1,435
1,439
1,443
1,447
1,451
1,454
1,458
1,462
1,466
1,470
1,474
1,478
1,482
1,485
1,489
1,493
1,497
1,501
1,505
1,509
1,513
1,517
1,520
1,524
1,528
1,532
1,536
1,540
1,544
1,548
1,551
1,555
1,559
1,563
1,567
1,571
1,575
1,579
1,583
1,586
1,590
1,594
1,598
1,602
1,606
1,610
1,614
1,617
1,621
1,625
1,629
1,633
1,637
1,641
1,645
1,649
1,652
1,656
1,660

he Most Likely Confidence column

value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

obability for the planning estimate

fications

demarks. If you modify

ified spreadsheet.

NU General Public License.

Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates

10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% ← Columns Z through PL are hidden
114 146 143 141 139 137
107 153 149 145 142 139
97 163 156 151 147 143
109 135 132 130 129 127
104 140 136 133 131 129
72 168 159 152 145 140
83 174 165 158 152 147
57 203 189 178 168 160
48 212 196 184 173 163
36 224 206 192 179 168
827 1,717 1,632 1,564 1,506 1,454

1,106 1,438 1,406 1,381 1,359 1,340

ns Z through PL are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve ball chart
 SPERT® Scheduler Start & Finish 8/1/2023 8/16/2024 Statistical PERT® (S
For scheduling the critical path ONLY! 80% 10.7%
Activity or Task Duration Days Start Date Finish Date Min %
Project initiation 6 8/1/2023 8/8/2023
Business requirements analysis 23 8/9/2023 9/11/2023 -25%
Detail design 18 9/12/2023 10/5/2023 -25%
Prototype 24 10/6/2023 11/9/2023
Build solution 93 11/10/2023 4/9/2024 -25%
Migrate to QA 7 4/10/2024 4/18/2024
QA user acceptance test 39 4/19/2024 6/13/2024 -25%
Pre-production prep 11 6/14/2024 7/1/2024
Production migration 2 7/2/2024 7/3/2024
Project closure 10 7/5/2024 7/18/2024 -20%

If needed, unhide rows 16-103 233

21 Optional schedule contingency
254 Total project duration

Non-work Day Description Date

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (USA) 1/16/2023
Presidents' Day (USA) 2/20/2023
Memorial Day (USA) 5/29/2023
Juneteenth (USA) 6/19/2023
Independence Day (USA) 7/4/2023
Labor Day (USA) 9/4/2023
Columbus Day (USA) 10/9/2023
Veterans Day (USA) 11/11/2023
Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/23/2023
Day after Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/24/2023
Christmas Break 12/18/2023
Christmas Break 12/19/2023
Christmas Break 12/20/2023
Christmas Break 12/21/2023
Christmas Break 12/22/2023
Christmas Break 12/25/2023
Christmas Break 12/26/2023
Christmas Break 12/27/2023
Christmas Break 12/28/2023
Christmas Break 12/29/2023
New Year's Day 1/1/2024
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (USA) 1/15/2024
Presidents' Day (USA) 2/19/2024
Memorial Day (USA) 5/27/2024

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Juneteenth (USA) 6/19/2024
Independence Day (USA) 7/4/2024
Labor Day (USA) 9/2/2024
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Veterans Day (USA, observed) 11/11/2024
Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/28/2024 To use this template:
Day after Thanksgiving Day (USA) 11/29/2024 1) Create a 3-point estima
Christmas Break 12/16/2024 2) Render a subjective jud
Christmas Break 12/17/2024 3) Examine the SPERT prob
Christmas Break 12/18/2024 Note: NORM.DIST and
Christmas Break 12/19/2024
Christmas Break 12/20/2024 Optionally:
Christmas Break 12/23/2024 Enter any desired estimate
Christmas Break 12/24/2024
Christmas Break 12/25/2024
Christmas Break 12/26/2024
Christmas Break 12/27/2024
New Year's Day (observed) 1/1/2025

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023

Download more FREE Stati
Watch a Pluralsight course
Watch Statistical PERT vid
Connect with or follow Wi
Subscribe to the SPERT® n
Statistical PERT® is a free spr
GNU General Public License a
or (at your option) any later
this spreadsheet in any mate
On both verbatim and modifi
including the author's name,

This file is distributed in the h

without even the implied wa
See the GNU General Public
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Scheduler & Mixed entry
Click for help
-50% < Heuristics > 50%
Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max % PERT Mean
3 5 8 5
15 20 30 21
11 15 23 16
10 20 30 20
60 80 120 83
3 5 10 100% 5
23 30 60 100% 34
5 10 15 10
1 2 3 2
8 10 12 20% 10

138 197 310 206

Do not show currency formatting

With a confidence interval of 90%

After you finish entering your estimates ab
The lowerbound threshold is 181 to calculate the probability of all uncertain
and the upperbound threshold is 231 is especially useful for creating a forecast f
project, for example.

Between a lowerbound value of 181 Miss the pie Choose the confidence you want for the co
in cell I109, and/or choose the confidence
and an upperbound value of 231 chart? Press upperbound thresholds in cells I113 and I1
the range probability is 90% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 5% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 5% pie chart

SPERT® Normal Distribution of All Rows Combined

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To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which implies probabilistic symmetry.

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Click for help Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimate

Planning SPERT SPERT Prob

Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability 10%
High confidence 1 5 50.0% 4
Medium-high confidence 3 21 52.6% 18
Medium confidence 2 16 56.6% 13
Medium-low confidence 5 20 50.0% 14
Medium confidence 12 83 48.9% 68
Low confidence 2 5 42.0% 3
Medium-high confidence 6 34 51.5% 25
Very high confidence 1 10 50.0% 9
Very high confidence 0 2 50.0% 2
Very high confidence 0 10 50.0% 9

© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP 15 206 50.1% 164

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 230 94.5% 187

you finish entering your estimates above, use this area

culate the probability of all uncertainties together. This
ecially useful for creating a forecast for an entire
ct, for example.

se the confidence you want for the confidence interval

I109, and/or choose the confidence lower and
bound thresholds in cells I113 and I114.

ows Combined

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y Confidence column

implies probabilistic symmetry.

he planning estimate
Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates

90% 85% 80% 75% 70% ← Columns AC through PO are hidden; they are u
6 6 6 5 5
24 24 23 23 22
19 18 18 17 17
26 25 24 23 22
99 96 93 91 90
8 8 7 7 6
42 40 39 38 37
11 11 11 11 11
2 2 2 2 2
11 10 10 10 10

247 240 233 228 223

225 222 219 216 214

gh PO are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve ball chart
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Normal Distribution Charts

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean

1 120 150 175 149

With a confidence interval of 65%

the lowerbound threshold is 135
and the upperbound threshold is 163

Between a lowerbound value of 89 Miss the pie

and an upperbound value of 151 chart? Press
the range probability is 55% CTRL and 6
The lowerbound area covers 0% to show the
and the upperbound area covers 45% pie chart

Chart Zoom
100%

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
stribution Charts Show Left-Side Area
Click for help
Planning SPERT
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Estimate Probability
Medium-high confidence 15 15 150 52.2%
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

SPERT® Normal Distribution Bell-Curve

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atisticalpert.com

new release notifications

odify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,
erally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
ensed under the GNU General Public License.

PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
/licenses/).
 Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
10% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
130 168 165 162 159 157

-Curve

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← Columns V through PH are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar chart
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Monte Carlo Simulation

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean

1 130 155 175 154

Press F9 to re-simulate 10,000 trials This chart isn't available in your version of Excel.

Editing this shape or saving this workbook into a different file

Planning Estimate 150
Planning estimate is greater than 100.0%
of the 10,000 trials
Between a lowerbound value of 89
and an upperbound value of 151
the range probability is 100.0%
The lowerbound area covers 0.0%
and the upperbound area covers 0.0%

Minimum 132.3
Maximum 132.3
Mean 132.3
Median 132.3
Mode 132
Standard Deviation 0.0

With a confidence interval of 80%

the lowerbound threshold is 135 SPERT® Normal Di
and the upperbound threshold is 173

Between a lowerbound value of 89

and an upperbound value of 151
the range probability is 42%
The lowerbound area covers 0%
and the upperbound area covers 58%

Chart Zoom
75%
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15
11

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals using Statistical PERT®
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

Simulation Data Table

Trial Result
132
1 132.279867893
2 132.279867893
3 132.279867893
4 132.279867893
5 132.279867893
6 132.279867893
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30 132.279867893
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120 132.279867893
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 lo Simulation Show Left-Side Area
Click for help
Planning
Most Likely Confidence Curve Your SD SPERT SD Trial Outcome Estimate
Very high confidence 15 15 132 150
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

isn't available in your version of Excel.

s shape or saving this workbook into a different file format will permanently break the chart.

SPERT® Normal Distribution Bell-Curve

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atisticalpert.com
s using Statistical PERT®
new release notifications
odify it under the terms of the
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erally-registered trademarks. If you modify
ames from the modified spreadsheet.
he original copyright notice,
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PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
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Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT SPERT Probabilistic Estimates

Probability 10% 90% 85% 80% 75%
39.1% 135 173 170 167 164

Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL TO the SPERT estimates above
SPERT Monte Carlo Simulation (PRESS F9 to simulate 10,000 trials)
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Monte Carlo Simulation Probabilities and Values

1% 132.3 50% 132.3
5% 132.3 55% 132.3
10% 132.3 60% 132.3
15% 132.3 65% 132.3
20% 132.3 70% 132.3
25% 132.3 75% 132.3
30% 132.3 80% 132.3
35% 132.3 85% 132.3
40% 132.3 90% 132.3
45% 132.3 95% 132.3
50% 132.3 99% 132.3

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TER THAN an uncertainty

70% ← Columns X through PJ are hidden; they are used to create Sparklines and the bell-curve bar char
162

the SPERT estimates above

0,000 trials)
100.0%
d the bell-curve bar chart
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Agile Forecast
Scenario 1
The starting date for our project or next release is 5/1/2023
We'll use 2
We'll most likely complete about 18
We have Medium confidence
In a worst-case scenario, we would complete only 10
In a best-case scenario, we might possibly complete 30
Our Product Backlog or next release represents about 200
We desire 50%
Be sure this indicator is green or yellow →
So, on average, we expect each sprint will finish 18.7
For this uncertainty, the SPERT standard deviation is 4.0
Optional: Use your own standard deviation
Given this, we forecast that we'll complete at least 18.7
We'll need 10.71
Optional: Choose a rounding decimal between 0.1 and 0.9 0.3
So, we'll need about 22
Optional: During this time, there is/are
In total, the number of days needed are 154
So, we will complete the Product Backlog or next release on 10/2/2023
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help
Scenario 2 Scenario 3

week sprints
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that the most likely outcome will regularly occur
story points (or user stories or features)
story points (or user stories or features)
story points of effort (or user stories or features)
80% 90% confidence in each sprint iteration
if red, check your inputs and ensure this is a bell-shaped uncertai
18.7 18.7 story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
4.0 4.0 that is: (MAX - MIN) * SPERT RSM
You can override SPERT's standard deviation using a calculated st
15.3 13.5 story points (or user stories or features) each sprint (for the confid
13.07 14.77 sprints to do all the work of the Product Backlog or the next relea
You can round up or down the number of weeks needed based up
26 30 business weeks
extra days (working and non-working) to add to the date calculati
182 210 which includes both working + non-working days
10/30/2023 11/27/2023 or earlier
liam W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

com

notifications
the terms of the
n 3 of the License,
ed trademarks. If you modify
modified spreadsheet.
pyright notice,
he GNU General Public License.
 ← Columns Q through T are hidden; they are used to create s

is a bell-shaped uncertainty

tion using a calculated standard deviation derived from historical data

each sprint (for the confidence level expressed in Row 10)
Backlog or the next release
f weeks needed based upon the fractional amount of sprints required

o add to the date calculation

den; they are used to create scenario calculations and probabilities
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Agile Burn-up Chart
Iteration Prod. Backlog:
Team Product Actual "Done" Total "Done"
ID (Sprint) All To-Do +
Capacity Backlog This Iteration All Iterations
Finish Dates Total "Done"
1 7/10/2023 300 40 40 300
2 7/24/2023 260 30 70 300
3 8/7/2023 230 50 120 300
4 8/21/2023 180 45 165 300
5 9/4/2023 135 30 195 300
6 9/18/2023 300 10 205 495
7 10/2/2023 290 25 230 495
8 10/16/2023 265 45 275 495
9 10/30/2023 150 425
10 11/13/2023 425
11 11/27/2023 425
12 12/11/2023 425
13 12/25/2023 50% 425
14 1/8/2024 50% 425
15 1/22/2024 425
16 2/5/2024 425
Need more than 16 iteration rows? Unhide rows 21-56

SPERT® Agile Burn-up Chart

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0
23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
/ 20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /20 /
10 15 20 25 30 /4 /9 14 19 24 29 /3 /8 13 18 23 28 /3 /8 13 18 23 28 /2 /7 12 17 22 27 /2 /7 12 17 22
7/ 7/ 7/ 7/ 7/ 8 8 8/ 8/ 8/ 8/ 9 9 9/ 9/ 9/ 9/ 10 10 10/ 10/ 10/ 10/ 11 11 11/ 11/ 11/ 11/ 12 12 12/ 12/ 12/ 1

Product Total Done Expected Optimistic C

Backlog All Iterations Value

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help
Optimistic Conservative Avg Work Standard
Expected
15.0% 85.0% Completed Deviation
Value
47.2 21.6 All Iterations All Iterations
34.4 12.4

#N/A #N/A Average Work

Use Only History
#N/A #N/A Completed Since
since Iteration ID
#N/A #N/A Then
#N/A #N/A 34.4
#N/A #N/A
275 #N/A #N/A Average Standard
309 322 297 (Velocity) Deviation
344 369 318 Override Override
378 417 340
413 464 361
430 487 372 SPERT SPERT
447 511 383 Average Standard
481 558 404 (Velocity) Deviation
516 605 426 34.4 12.4
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Chart

December 13

January 10

February 7

3 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
2/ 17/ 22/ 27/ /2/ /7/ 12/ 17/ 22/ 27/ /1/ /6/ 11/ 16/ 21/ 26/ 31/ /5/
/ / / 2 2 / / / / 1 1 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 2
11 11 11 1 1 12 12 12 12

Optimistic Conservative
ons

rks. If you modify

spreadsheet.

neral Public License.

 Standard
Deviation
Since Then
12.4

To add clarity to your probabilistic finish dates, edit these call-out

objects to explicitly show specific dates, then move them into your
burn-up chart. Doing this can make your burn-up charts easier to
interpret by your stakeholders. Below is an example.

Note: The call-out dates are not automatically calculated!

 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD) Stacked Area Char

Day Date Backlog Developing Testing Deploying Done

You may overwrite Row 6's data, but DO NOT DELETE the data in Row 6 or else Excel formula errors will occur
1 2-Oct 97 3 0 0 0
2 3-Oct 95 3 2 0 0
3 4-Oct 94 3 3 0 0
4 5-Oct 90 3 2 2 3
5 6-Oct 88 2 3 3 4
6 9-Oct 85 4 4 2 5
7 10-Oct 81 3 3 1 12
8 11-Oct 101 3 4 0 14
9 12-Oct 98 4 5 1 14
10 13-Oct 93 3 8 3 15
11 16-Oct 90 3 11 1 17
12 17-Oct 85 4 16 0 18
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
Need more rows? Unhide rows 51-305.

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
m (CFD) Stacked Area Charts Click for help

Need more process steps? Unhide columns H-V. Rename process steps to fit your workflow.
Hide any columns you don't use to remove them from the CFD charts below.

SPERT® Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD), w/Backlog

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct

Done Deploying Testing Developing Backlog

SPERT® Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD)

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct
 10

0
2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct

Done Deploying Testing Developing

SPERT® WIP Only

25

20

15

10

0
2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 16-Oct 17-Oct

Deploying Testing Developing

For the WIP Only chart above, the example "Done" column is de-selected. Adjust this chart by choosing
only the true work-in-progress (WIP) process steps after you customize this worksheet to your workflow.
Then, right-click on the chart and choose "Select data…" and de-select your "Done" column.

demarks. If you modify

fied spreadsheet.

U General Public License.

 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition VLOOKUP lists of values Click for help

SPERT Most Likely Subjective Terms RSM Min Most Likely Max
Near certainty 0.07071068 1 98 1
Very high confidence 0.1 2 96 2
High confidence 0.14142136 4 92 4
Medium-high confidence 0.17320508 6 88 6
Medium confidence 0.2 8 84 8
Medium-low confidence 0.23452079 11 78 11
Low confidence 0.27386128 15 70 15
Very low confidence 0.31622777 20 60 20
Extremely low confidence 0.35355339 25 50 25
Guesstimate 0.40620192 33 34 33

-5%
-10%
These are the Minimum heuristic -15%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- -20%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed -25%
entry)' worksheets to create a minimum
value for a 3-point estimate. -30%
-35%
You can add, remove, or change values in -40%
this list.
-50%
-60%
-70%

10%
20%
These are the Maximum heuristic 30%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- 40%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed 50%
entry)' worksheets to create a maximum
value for a 3-point estimate. 75%
100%
You can add, remove, or change values in 125%
this this list.
150%
175%
200%

Choose which side of the normal curve to display

Show Left-Side Area FALSE Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or G
Show Right-Side Area 1 Show the likelihood that an uncertainty will EXCEED the SPERT estim
Choose whether to show currency formatting
Show currency formatting TRUE
Do not show currency formatting FALSE
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Choose the team capacity for the agile Burn-up Chart

0%
20%
These values are used to pick the team 30%
capacity on the Burn-up Chart worksheet. 40%
You can add, remove, or change values in 50%
this list. 60%
70%
80%

Chart Zoom % (for bell-curve charts)

40%
50%
These values are used to pick the zoom % 75%
on single uncertainty bell-curve charts. 100%
You can add, remove, or change values in 125%
this list. 150%
175%
200%

Choose whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian

I'm a Frequentist! 1 You can create "confidence intervals" with Statistical PERT
I'm a Bayesian! 0 You can create "credible intervals" with Statistical PERT
I don't know (or I don't care)! 1 You will create "confidence intervals" with Statistical PERT unless y

Are you a Frequentist or a Bayesian modeler? Hover over the label to see an explanatory note and learn whether
I don't know (or I don't care)! Your choice does not affect any Statistical PERT calculations

Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help

Dropdown values for the Most Likely Confidence selection

Ratio Scale Multiplier used in the SPERT Standard Deviation formula
Information only. Shows the number of trials out of 100 used to create RSMs (see Ratio Scale Modeler)

Hint: Insert new rows inside the middle of a group, not at the top or bottom, so range references
will automatically adjust to include the newly inserted rows.

mates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty Show the percentage of simulated trials that were LESS THAN or EQUAL
y will EXCEED the SPERT estimates below Show the percentage of simulated trials that EXCEEDED the SPERT estim
 with Statistical PERT
th Statistical PERT
with Statistical PERT unless you say you're a Bayesian!

atory note and learn whether you're a Frequentist or a Bayesian

tistical PERT calculations

If you modify
l Public License.
tio Scale Modeler)

hat were LESS THAN or EQUAL TO the SPERT estimates above

hat EXCEEDED the SPERT estimates above
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Ratio Scale Modeler

HIGHER Confidence MEDIUM Confidence

Standard Deviation: 8.48528137 Standard Deviation:
Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.07071068 Ratio Scale Modifier:
Mean: 120 Mean:

Minimum Most Likely Maximum Minimum Most Likely

PERT Estimate: 60 120 180 PERT Estimate: 60 120
Distribution: 1 98 1 Distribution: 8 84

1 60 120 180 1 60 120

2 120 2 60 120
3 120 3 60 120
4 120 4 60 120
5 120 5 60 120
6 120 6 60 120
7 120 7 60 120
8 120 8 60 120
9 120 9 120
10 120 10 120
11 120 11 120
12 120 12 120
13 120 13 120
14 120 14 120
15 120 15 120
16 120 16 120
17 120 17 120
18 120 18 120
19 120 19 120
20 120 20 120
21 120 21 120
22 120 22 120
23 120 23 120
24 120 24 120
25 120 25 120
26 120 26 120
27 120 27 120
28 120 28 120
29 120 29 120
30 120 30 120
31 120 31 120
32 120 32 120
33 120 33 120
34 120 34 120
35 120 35 120
36 120 36 120
37 120 37 120
38 120 38 120
39 120 39 120
40 120 40 120
41 120 41 120
42 120 42 120
43 120 43 120
44 120 44 120
45 120 45 120
46 120 46 120
47 120 47 120
48 120 48 120
49 120 49 120
50 120 50 120
51 120 51 120
52 120 52 120
53 120 53 120
54 120 54 120
55 120 55 120
56 120 56 120
57 120 57 120
58 120 58 120
59 120 59 120
60 120 60 120
61 120 61 120
62 120 62 120
63 120 63 120
64 120 64 120
65 120 65 120
66 120 66 120
67 120 67 120
68 120 68 120
69 120 69 120
70 120 70 120
71 120 71 120
72 120 72 120
73 120 73 120
74 120 74 120
75 120 75 120
76 120 76 120
77 120 77 120
78 120 78 120
 79 120 79 120
80 120 80 120
81 120 81 120
82 120 82 120
83 120 83 120
84 120 84 120
85 120 85
86 120 86
87 120 87
88 120 88
89 120 89
90 120 90
91 120 91
92 120 92
93 120 93
94 120 94
95 120 95
96 120 96
97 120 97
98 120 98
99 99
100 100
© 2015-2022, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Version 5.1.1 – © 2015-2023, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Connect with or follow William W. Davis on LinkedIn
Subscribe to the SPERT® newsletter for free tips, free webinars, and new release notifications
Statistical PERT® is a free spreadsheet file; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version. Statistical PERT® and SPERT® are federally-registered trademarks. If you modify
this spreadsheet in any material way, please remove these trademarked names from the modified spreadsheet.
On both verbatim and modified copies of this file, you must always retain the original copyright notice,
including the author's name, copyright year, and a notice that this file is licensed under the GNU General Public License.

This file is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Click for help

UM Confidence LOWER Confidence

24 Standard Deviation: 48.7442304
0.2 Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.40620192
120 Mean: 120

Maximum Minimum Most Likely Maximum

180 PERT Estimate: 60 120 180
8 Distribution: 33 34 33

180 1 60 120 180

180 2 60 120 180
180 3 60 120 180
180 4 60 120 180
180 5 60 120 180
180 6 60 120 180
180 7 60 120 180
180 8 60 120 180
9 60 120 180
10 60 120 180
11 60 120 180
12 60 120 180
13 60 120 180
14 60 120 180
15 60 120 180
16 60 120 180
17 60 120 180
18 60 120 180
19 60 120 180
20 60 120 180
21 60 120 180
22 60 120 180
23 60 120 180
24 60 120 180
25 60 120 180
26 60 120 180
27 60 120 180
28 60 120 180
29 60 120 180
30 60 120 180
31 60 120 180
32 60 120 180
33 60 120 180
34 120
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100

s. If you modify

eral Public License.

Collabinart® Experience Collaboration through Interpretive Art™

At the 2018 PMI Global Conference,

attendees experienced Collabinart®.

Collabinart is a freely-licensed
team-building and training
framework to build collaboration
skills using masterpiece artworks.

Use Collabinart at any point in a

team's journey together. Develop
team camaraderie, active listening
skills, and collaboration skills.
It's fun, free, and effective.

Visit the Collabinart website

to learn more.

The Young Shepherdess (1865)

William-Adolphe Bouguereau
San Diego Museum of Art
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition Change Log
Change Date Version Authored By
3/4/23 5.1.1 William W. Davis
Create a new version! Update row 3 above; insert a new row below this one; on the Insert Options action dropdown, choose
3/4/23 5.1.1 William W. Davis
1/1/22 5.1 William W. Davis
8/14/21 5.0.3 William W. Davis
6/13/21 5.0.2 William W. Davis
6/8/21 5.0.1 William W. Davis
6/5/21 5.0 William W. Davis
4/24/21 4.3.2 William W. Davis
10/30/20 4.3.1 William W. Davis
6/3/20 4.3 William W. Davis
6/2/20 4.2.2 William W. Davis
5/26/20 4.2.1 William W. Davis
5/23/20 4.2 William W. Davis
5/10/20 4.1 William W. Davis
4/26/20 4.0.1a William W. Davis
4/23/20 4.0.1 William W. Davis
1/2/20 4.0 William W. Davis
7/12/19 3.0.3 William W. Davis
7/9/19 3.0.2 William W. Davis
6/30/19 3.0.1 William W. Davis
3/10/19 3.0 William W. Davis
11/17/18 2.4 William W. Davis
9/22/18 2.3 William W. Davis
3/1/17 2.2 William W. Davis
2/3/17 2.1 William W. Davis
1/12/17 2.0.2 William W. Davis
1/3/17 2.0.1 William W. Davis
1/1/17 2.0 William W. Davis
10/6/16 1.4.1 William W. Davis
10/3/16 1.4 William W. Davis
9/21/16 1.3a William W. Davis
9/10/16 1.3 William W. Davis
7/9/16 1.2 William W. Davis
7/3/16 1.1 William W. Davis
10/9/15 1.02 William W. Davis
9/17/15 1.01 William W. Davis
7/31/15 1.00 William W. Davis
®) Normal Edition Change Log
Description
Updated the SPERT Scheduler with updated USA holidays and updated other worksheets with dates, too
above; insert a new row below this one; on the Insert Options action dropdown, choose "Format Same as Below"; copy cells A3:D3; only pa
Updated the SPERT Scheduler with updated USA holidays and updated other worksheets with dates, too
Changed copyright footer so modified SPERT spreadsheets done by other authors are easier to legally indicate; updated 2022-
Add call-outs to the Burn-up Chart worksheet. Format "Your SD" values as blue text.
Add Frequentist/Bayesian lookup and dynamic label functionality for ranges
Minor formatting tweaks for greater consistency, a new WIP chart on the CFD Charts worksheet, add SUM to Scheduler Durati
Added: Cumulative flow diagram (CFD) tab, SPERT Normal Scheduler tab, improved appearance of all bell-curve charts, chart z
Updated iteration finish dates on the Agile Burn-up worksheet.
Added a link just on the MC Simulation worksheet to my new Pluralsight course, Monte Carlo Simulation Fundamentals; upda
Added team capacity calculations to the Agile Burn-up Chart worksheet; fix cell F6 on that worksheet
Modified the agile burn-up chart to use #N/A for cells without values so the Product Backlog and Total Done lines can use mar
Very minor formatting to the agile burn-up chart.
Modify the Agile Burn-up worksheet to avoid having to copy the Product Backlog values to the last iteration finish date
Added more statistics to the MC Simulation worksheet
Fixed Newsletter link in the footer
Replaced Twitter footer link with a SPERT Newsletter link, other minor changes
Added: Monte Carlo simulation tab, Agile Burn-up chart, "Your SD" column for explicit standard deviations, improved formatti
Format and painting title on Collabinart tab.
Format GNU GPL page, replace ™ with ® on Collabinart tab, minor formatting on Agile Forecast tab and GNU footer links (all ta
Added full GNU GPL license, updated footer language.
Added: Sparklines, tri-colored combo charts, Practice Forecasting and Super Simple SPERT tabs, 3-scenario agile forecasting
Changed the % calculation for the whole release in the "Agile Forecast" tab
Added a new tab "Agile Forecast" for agile team estimation/forecasting
Added new tab 'for Beginners' to make it easy and non-threatening to use Statistical PERT for smart people who don't love sta
Added new tab 'Mixed Mode' allowing manual 3-point entry and/or global or line-level heuristics
Removed the dash to read, "Statistical PERT® Normal Edition" and "SPERT® Normal Edition"
Changed '(1-point entry)' & '(3-point entry)' tabs so cells L104 and L106 only show probabilities when a planning estimate is en
Added: '(1-Point entry)' tab to create 3-pt estimates with heuristics, show left/right side probabilities, enhanced formatting.
Added HTTPS to links. Renamed "SPERT Graphs…" to "SPERT Charts…"
Added a pie chart to 'SPERT Graphs…' worksheet and removed "Unskewed" probabilities which used the mode instead of mea
Changed links to HTTPS, added a SPERT logo to the Welcome tab, and changed pie chart so upperbound is red, lowerbound is
Added a confidence interval probability and pie chart for all estimated tasks
Added traffic light indicators to check for a valid 3-point estimate and implied bell-shape of the task
Added new worksheet, SPERT Bell-Curve for Task Duration to show the implied, normal bell-shaped curve
Formatting changes for the PMI article on ProjectManagement.com; updated formulas in cols O - T.
Changed formulas in cells M4:M15, N4:N15 so the Most Likely value in column C is > 0 (not > 4)
Initial release
 GNU GENERAL PUBLIC LICENSE
Version 3, 29 June 2007

Copyright (C) 2007 Free Software Foundation, Inc. <https://fsf.org/>

Everyone is permitted to copy and distribute verbatim copies
of this license document, but changing it is not allowed.

Preamble

The GNU General Public License is a free, copyleft license for

software and other kinds of works.

The licenses for most software and other practical works are designed
to take away your freedom to share and change the works. By contrast,
the GNU General Public License is intended to guarantee your freedom to
share and change all versions of a program--to make sure it remains free
software for all its users. We, the Free Software Foundation, use the
GNU General Public License for most of our software; it applies also to
any other work released this way by its authors. You can apply it to
your programs, too.

When we speak of free software, we are referring to freedom, not

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Developers that use the GNU GPL protect your rights with two steps:
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0. Definitions.

"This License" refers to version 3 of the GNU General Public License.

"Copyright" also means copyright-like laws that apply to other kinds of

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"The Program" refers to any copyrightable work licensed under this

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To "convey" a work means any kind of propagation that enables other

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The Corresponding Source need not include anything that users

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The Corresponding Source for a work in source code form is that

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2. Basic Permissions.

All rights granted under this License are granted for the term of
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You may make, run and propagate covered works that you do not
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You may convey verbatim copies of the Program's source code as you
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License to anyone who comes into possession of a copy. This
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A compilation of a covered work with other separate and independent

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You may convey a covered work in object code form under the terms
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(including a physical distribution medium), accompanied by the
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customarily used for software interchange.

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d) Convey the object code by offering access from a designated

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A "User Product" is either (1) a "consumer product", which means any

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"Installation Information" for a User Product means any methods,

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If you convey an object code work under this section in, or with, or
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The requirement to provide Installation Information does not include a

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7. Additional Terms.

"Additional permissions" are terms that supplement the terms of this

License by making exceptions from one or more of its conditions.
Additional permissions that are applicable to the entire Program shall
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that they are valid under applicable law. If additional permissions
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When you convey a copy of a covered work, you may at your option
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 Notwithstanding any other provision of this License, for material you
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a) Disclaiming warranty or limiting liability differently from the

terms of sections 15 and 16 of this License; or

b) Requiring preservation of specified reasonable legal notices or

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All other non-permissive additional terms are considered "further

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Additional terms, permissive or non-permissive, may be stated in the

form of a separately written license, or stated as exceptions;
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 8. Termination.

You may not propagate or modify a covered work except as expressly

provided under this License. Any attempt otherwise to propagate or
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this License (including any patent licenses granted under the third
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However, if you cease all violation of this License, then your

license from a particular copyright holder is reinstated (a)
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Moreover, your license from a particular copyright holder is

reinstated permanently if the copyright holder notifies you of the
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Termination of your rights under this section does not terminate the
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9. Acceptance Not Required for Having Copies.

You are not required to accept this License in order to receive or

run a copy of the Program. Ancillary propagation of a covered work
occurring solely as a consequence of using peer-to-peer transmission
to receive a copy likewise does not require acceptance. However,
nothing other than this License grants you permission to propagate or
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10. Automatic Licensing of Downstream Recipients.

Each time you convey a covered work, the recipient automatically

receives a license from the original licensors, to run, modify and
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An "entity transaction" is a transaction transferring control of an

organization, or substantially all assets of one, or subdividing an
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You may not impose any further restrictions on the exercise of the
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11. Patents.

A "contributor" is a copyright holder who authorizes use under this

License of the Program or a work on which the Program is based. The
work thus licensed is called the contributor's "contributor version".

A contributor's "essential patent claims" are all patent claims

owned or controlled by the contributor, whether already acquired or
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but do not include claims that would be infringed only as a
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Each contributor grants you a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free

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In the following three paragraphs, a "patent license" is any express

agreement or commitment, however denominated, not to enforce a patent
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If you convey a covered work, knowingly relying on a patent license,

and the Corresponding Source of the work is not available for anyone
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then you must either (1) cause the Corresponding Source to be so
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If, pursuant to or in connection with a single transaction or

arrangement, you convey, or propagate by procuring conveyance of, a
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A patent license is "discriminatory" if it does not include within

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or that patent license was granted, prior to 28 March 2007.

Nothing in this License shall be construed as excluding or limiting

any implied license or other defenses to infringement that may
otherwise be available to you under applicable patent law.

12. No Surrender of Others' Freedom.

 If conditions are imposed on you (whether by court order, agreement or
otherwise) that contradict the conditions of this License, they do not
excuse you from the conditions of this License. If you cannot convey a
covered work so as to satisfy simultaneously your obligations under this
License and any other pertinent obligations, then as a consequence you may
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to collect a royalty for further conveying from those to whom you convey
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13. Use with the GNU Affero General Public License.

Notwithstanding any other provision of this License, you have

permission to link or combine any covered work with a work licensed
under version 3 of the GNU Affero General Public License into a single
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License will continue to apply to the part which is the covered work,
but the special requirements of the GNU Affero General Public License,
section 13, concerning interaction through a network will apply to the
combination as such.

14. Revised Versions of this License.

The Free Software Foundation may publish revised and/or new versions of
the GNU General Public License from time to time. Such new versions will
be similar in spirit to the present version, but may differ in detail to
address new problems or concerns.

Each version is given a distinguishing version number. If the

Program specifies that a certain numbered version of the GNU General
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option of following the terms and conditions either of that numbered
version or of any later version published by the Free Software
Foundation. If the Program does not specify a version number of the
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by the Free Software Foundation.

If the Program specifies that a proxy can decide which future

versions of the GNU General Public License can be used, that proxy's
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to choose that version for the Program.

Later license versions may give you additional or different

permissions. However, no additional obligations are imposed on any
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later version.

15. Disclaimer of Warranty.

THERE IS NO WARRANTY FOR THE PROGRAM, TO THE EXTENT PERMITTED BY

APPLICABLE LAW. EXCEPT WHEN OTHERWISE STATED IN WRITING THE COPYRIGHT
HOLDERS AND/OR OTHER PARTIES PROVIDE THE PROGRAM "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTY
OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO,
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IS WITH YOU. SHOULD THE PROGRAM PROVE DEFECTIVE, YOU ASSUME THE COST OF
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16. Limitation of Liability.

IN NO EVENT UNLESS REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW OR AGREED TO IN WRITING

WILL ANY COPYRIGHT HOLDER, OR ANY OTHER PARTY WHO MODIFIES AND/OR CONVEYS
THE PROGRAM AS PERMITTED ABOVE, BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR DAMAGES, INCLUDING ANY
GENERAL, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING OUT OF THE
USE OR INABILITY TO USE THE PROGRAM (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OF
DATA OR DATA BEING RENDERED INACCURATE OR LOSSES SUSTAINED BY YOU OR THIRD
PARTIES OR A FAILURE OF THE PROGRAM TO OPERATE WITH ANY OTHER PROGRAMS),
EVEN IF SUCH HOLDER OR OTHER PARTY HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUCH DAMAGES.

17. Interpretation of Sections 15 and 16.

If the disclaimer of warranty and limitation of liability provided

above cannot be given local legal effect according to their terms,
reviewing courts shall apply local law that most closely approximates
an absolute waiver of all civil liability in connection with the
Program, unless a warranty or assumption of liability accompanies a
copy of the Program in return for a fee.

END OF TERMS AND CONDITIONS

e you may
ligate you

sions of
ons will
WARRANTY

E PROGRAM

CONVEYS
LUDING ANY

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ILITY OF