Chapter 1

Introduction to
Simulation and modeling
Course teacher: Ms.Roohi Amad
 Outline
• When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
• When Simulation Is Not Appropriate
• Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation
• Areas of Application
• Systems and System Environment
• Components of a System
• Discrete and Continuous Systems
• Model of a System
• Types of Models
• Discrete‐Event System Simulation
• Steps in a Simulation Study
 Definition
A simulation is the imitation of the operation of real‐world
process or system over time.
– Generation of artificial history and observation of that
observation history
• A model construct a conceptual framework that
describes a system
• The behavior of a system that evolves over time is
studied by developing a simulation model.
• The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
– Mathematical, logical
– Symbolic relationship between the entities
 Goal of modeling and simulation
A model can be used to investigate a wide verity of
“what if” questions about real‐world system.
• Potential changes to the system can be simulated
and predicate their impact on the system.
– Find adequate parameters before implementation
• So simulation can be used as
– Analysis tool for predicating the effect of changes
– Design tool to predicate the performance of new
system
• It is better to do simulation before implementation.
 How a model can be developed?
Mathematical Methods
– Probability theory, algebraic method ,…
– Their results are accurate
– They have a few Number of parameters
– It is impossible for complex systems
• Numerical computer‐based simulation
– It is simple
– It is useful for complex system
 When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
• Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a subsystem with
complex system
• Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated
and find their effects
• A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about improvement of
system
• Finding important input parameters with changing simulation inputs
• Simulation can be used with new design and policies before implementation
• Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help determine the
requirement
• Simulation models designed for training make learning possible without
the cost disruption
• A plan can be visualized with animated simulation
• The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service organization)
is too complex that its internal interaction can be treated only by simulation
 When Simulation Is Not Appropriate
• When the problem can be solved by common
sense.
• When the problem can be solved analytically.
• If it is easier to perform direct experiments.
• If cost exceed savings.
• If resource or time are not available.
• If system behavior is too complex.
– Like human behavior
 Advantages and disadvantages of
simulation
In contrast to optimization models, simulation
models are “run” rather than solved.
– Given as a set of inputs and model characteristics
the model is run and the simulated behavior is
observed
 Advantages of simulation
• New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son on
can be explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the real
system.
• New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems and
… can be tested without committing resources for their acquisition.
• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed‐up or
slow‐down of the phenomenon( clock is self‐control).
• Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and
important variables to the performance.
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in
process, the system is delayed.
• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system
operates.
• “What if” questions can be answered.
 Disadvantages of simulation
Model building requires special training.
– Vendors of simulation software have been actively
developing packages that contain models that only
need input (templates).
• Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
• Simulation modeling and analysis can be time
consuming and expensive.
– Many simulation software have output‐ analysis.
These four disadvantages, respectively, can
be offset as follows:
– Simulation Packages are available which contains
template models
– In simulation packages output analysis could be
done
– Simulation packages are getting more and more
advanced
– Closed‐form models cannot analyze most of the
complex systems
 Areas of application
•Manufacturing Applications
• Semiconductor Manufacturing
• Construction Engineering and project management
• Military application
• Logistics, Supply chain and distribution application
• Transportation modes and Traffic
• Business Process Simulation
• Health Care
• Automated Material Handling System (AMHS)
– Test beds for functional testing of control‐system software
• Risk analysis
– Insurance, portfolio,...
• Computer Simulation
– CPU, Memory,…
• Network simulation
– Internet backbone, LAN (Switch/Router), Wireless, PSTN ( call centre),...
 Systems and System Environment
• A system is defined as a groups of objects that are joined
together in some regular interaction toward the
accomplishment of some purpose.
– An automobile factory: Machines, components parts and
workers operate jointly along assembly line
• A system is often affected by changes occurring outside the
system: system environment.
– Factory : Arrival orders
• Effect of supply on demand : relationship between factory
output and arrival (activity of system)
– Banks : arrival of customers
 Components of system
• Entity
– An object of interest in the system : Machines in factory
• Attribute
– The property of an entity : speed, capacity
• Activity
– A time period of specified length :welding, stamping
• State
– A collection of variables that describe the system in any time : status of
machine (busy, idle, down,…)
• Event
– A instantaneous occurrence that might change the state of the system:
breakdown
• Endogenous
– Activities and events occurring with the system
• Exogenous
– Activities and events occurring with the environment
 Exogenous Variables and Endogenous Variables For Super Market
Checkout

Exogenous Variables For Super Market Checkout

– Number of checkout lanes
– Number of lanes staffed with cashier
– Number of lanes staffed with cashiers and baggers
– Checkout equipment used
– Express lanes
– Arrival pattern of customers
– Salaries of cashier and baggers
• Endogenous Variables For Super Market Checkout
– Number of customer waiting
– Customer waiting time
– Cashier idle time
– Bagger idle time
– Customer checkout time
Examples of systems & components
 Discrete and Continuous Systems
• A discrete system is one in which the state
variables change only at a discrete set of points
in time : Bank example
• A continuous system is one in which the state
• variables change continuously over time: Head
• of water behind the dam
 Model of a System
To study the system
– it is sometimes possible to experiments with
system
• This is not always possible (bank, factory,…)
• A new system may not yet exist
• Model: construct a conceptual framework that
describes a system
– It is necessary to consider those accepts of
systems that affect the problem under
investigation (unnecessary details must remove)
There is a fundamental difference between models
used in science and engineering.
• Science is concerned with natural world, where as
engineering is concerned primarily with the man
made world.
• Science uses models to gain an understanding of
the way things are in the natural world.
• Engineering uses models of the man‐made world
in an attempt to achieve what ought to be.
 Types of Models
When used as a noun the word “model ” implies
representation.
The word “model "may also be used as an adjective
carrying with it the implication of ideal.
Finally, the word "model” may be used as a verb,
as is the case where a woman models clothes.
•PHYSICAL MODELS
Physical models are visual geometric equivalents, either as
miniatures, enlargements, or duplicates made to the same scale.
• ANALOG MODELS
Analog model; the focus is on similarity in relations. Analog models
behave like the original.
• SCHEMATIC MODELS
A schematic model is developed by taking a state or event and
reducing it to a chart or diagram.
• MATHEMATICAL MODELS
A mathematical model employs the language of mathematics and,
like other models, may be a description & then explanation of the
system it represents.
• Physical Model (Iconic Model):
– Table top or miniature model
– Simulated control room
– Physical flight simulator
• Logical or Mathematical Model:
– Set of approximations or assumptions, both structural
and quantitative about the way system does or will
work.
– Logical model are usually represented in computer
program
What to do with Logical Model:
• Need to find a way to deal with the model and
analyze its behavior
– For simple model use traditional mathematical
tools like differential equation method, queuing
theory, linear programming etc.
– For complicated system ⇒ Computer
Simulation
Characterizing a Simulation Model
• Deterministic or Stochastic
– Does the model contain stochastic components?
– Randomness is easy to add to a DES
• Static or Dynamic
– Is time a significant variable?
• Continuous or Discrete
– Does the system state evolve continuously or only at
discrete points in time?
– Continuous: classical mechanics
– Discrete: queuing, inventory, machine shop models
 Discrete‐Event Simulation Model
• Stochastic: some state variables are random
• Dynamic: time evolution is important
• Discrete‐Event: significant changes occur at
discrete time instances
Model Taxonomy
 DES Model Development
• How to develop a model:
1) Determine the goals and objectives
2) Build a conceptual model
3) Convert into a specification model
4) Convert into a computational model
5) Verify
6) Validate
Typically an iterative process
 Three Model Levels
• Conceptual
– Very high level
– How comprehensive should the model be?
– What are the state variables, which are dynamic, and
which are important?
• Specification
– On paper
– May involve equations, pseudo code, etc.
– How will the model receive input?
• Computational
– A computer program
– General‐purpose PL or simulation language?
 Verification vs. Validation
• Verification
– Computational model should be consistent with
specification model
– Did we build the model right?
• Validation
– Computational model should be consistent with the
system being analyzed
– Did we build the right model?
– Can an expert distinguish simulation output from
system output?
• Interactive graphics can prove valuable
 Steps in Simulation Study
• Problem formulation
• Setting of objectives and overall project plan
• Model conceptualization
• Data collection
• Model translation
• Verified?
• Validated?
• experimental design
• Production runs and analysis
– More runs?
– Documentation and Reporting
– Implementation.
Steps in Simulation Study