Organizer: Jeehye Kim, University of British Columbia, Canada (jeehye.kim@ubc.

ca)

Session Title: Change and continuity in East Asia IR in the Biden Era

Session abstract:

In this panel, we discuss key issues in the international relations of Northeast and Southeast Asia
that the new US administration will face in the coming years, including Chinese competitive
strategy and US responses, US-Philippines alliance relations, China’s management of US-Korea
and US-Japan alliances, and the growing problem of China’s overseas political activities. Dr.
Andrew Chubb raises the question of how liberal democracies in the region can most effectively
manage threats to national security from the overseas political activities of the People’s Republic
of China and its supporters. Dr. Renato Cruz De Castro asks how the Biden administration’s
decision to continue its predecessor’s policy of strategic competition with China will affect the
Philippines-US alliance. Turning to Korea and Japan, Dr. Jeehye Kim asks why China reacts
very differently to similar structural changes in the US-Korean and US-Japan alliances. Dr.
Oriana Skylar Mastro asks how China reached great power status by building up its power
differently from the United States, and what this means for understanding China’s competitive
strategy. Each project offers theoretical and policy implications, and aims to improve our
understanding of how the new US administration can effectively respond to security challenges
in the Asia-Pacific region.

Chair:
Dr. Andrew Yeo
Professor of Politics, The Catholic University of America, Washington, D.C. USA
Email: [email protected]

Discussants:

Dr. Sheena Chestnut Greitens

Associate Professor, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at
Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
Email: [email protected]

Dr. Ronan Tse-Min Fu

Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Email: [email protected]

Paper presenters:

Dr. Andrew Chubb (Lancaster University, United Kingdom)

Dr. Renato Cruz De Castro (De La Salle University, The Philippines)
Dr. Jeehye Kim (University of British Columbia, Canada)
Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro (Stanford University, USA)

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1. Presenter: Andrew Chubb
British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom
Email: [email protected]

Title: PRC Overseas Political Activities: Managing Risk and Reaction

Abstract: Political elites in liberal democracies are showing heightened concern about threats to
national security from the overseas political activities of the People’s Republic of China and its
supporters. Various concerns are well founded: covert and overt political activities are in its
ruling party’s Leninist DNA, pro-Beijing patriots are advancing their views with increasing
vigour, and many economic actors involved in trade relations with China share overlapping
interests with its party-state. This paper argues, however, that an effective liberal democratic
policy response requires distinguishing between risks to national security, to civil liberties, and
to academic freedom. Aggregating varied issues into a singular national security threat —
especially under sweeping, imprecise labels such as ‘Chinese influence’ — is counterproductive
to the goal of defending liberal democracy. Although widely hailed as a model to follow in
countering PRC foreign interference, close scrutiny of Australia’s aggregation-based approach
illustrates key drawbacks: alarmist public policy discourse that fans xenophobia; legislative
overreach that unnecessarily encroaches on civil liberties; and institutional mismatches that
hamper efforts to protect diaspora communities from foreign interference. Drawing on
conversations with government officials, activists, researchers, university administrators, lawyers
and journalists, the paper (1) defines and disaggregates a broad array of issues arising from the
PRC’s overseas political activities; (2) identifies important risks of responding; and (3) suggests
a set of measures for liberal democracies to manage their domestic responses to China's
increasingly authoritarian party-state. It demonstrates that there exists no contradiction between
tackling PRC foreign interference, and taking seriously the associated risks to liberal democracy.

2. Presenter: Dr. Renato Cruz De Castro

Professor in the International Studies Department, De La Salle University, Manila, The
Philippines
Email: [email protected]

Title: The Philippines-U.S. Alliance and 21st Century U.S. Grand Strategies in the Indo-Pacific
Region: From the Bush to the Biden Administration

Abstract: This chapter situates the Philippines-U.S. alliance within changing U.S. grand
strategies from Barrack Obama’s strategic rebalancing to Asia to President Joe Biden decision to
continue the Trump Administration’s strategic competition with China. Upon President Obama’s
announcement of the rebalance strategy in 2011, the Philippines already figured prominently in
American foreign policy in Asia, particularly with the intensification of Philippine-China
territorial dispute in the South China Sea. In 2014, Washington and Manila signed the Enhanced
Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that provided the institutional framework for an
increased albeit a non-permanent military presence in the Philippines. In 2016, Philippine
President Rodrigo Duterte effected a major shift in the country’s foreign policy by distancing the
country from the U.S. and gravitating toward China. The Trump Administration, however, saw
the Philippines as a crucial ally in its strategic competition with China. Consequently,

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Washington adopted a policy of strategic patience to bring Duterte onside the U.S. rather than
pushing him to China’s embrace. This scheme stabilized the two countries’ security relations,
and ensured the Philippines’ commitment to the U.S. system of bilateral alliances. The Biden
Administration’s decision to continue its predecessor’s policy of strategic competition means
that the Philippine-U.S. alliance will be geared to address the China challenge in the Indo-Pacific
region. In conclusion, the article argues that given the Philippines close security ties with the
U.S. that often clash with China’s interests, it will be difficult and challenging for President
Duterte to pursue an independent foreign policy in an increasingly multi-polar world order.

3. Presenter: Dr. Jeehye Kim

Postdoctoral Fellow, Dept. of Political Science at the University of British Columbia,
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Email: [email protected]

Title: Rising China's reaction to security cooperation involving the United States and its allies in
the Asia-Pacific region, 1978-2020

Abstract: Why do rising powers sometimes threaten and at other times reassure their periphery in
order to maintain regional stability conducive to its growth? Theories on power transition
suggest that a rising China has at hand a diverse range of tools - ranging from coercion to
concessions - to signal to the US both the peacefulness and the inevitability of its rise, but it does
not provide the conditions under which the rising power chooses one tool over the other.
Focusing on the People's Republic of China’s elite discourse on foreign policy, the paper
addresses how a rising power reacts to negative changes in the external balance of power during
its rise. This project looks into why China’s reaction was different to similar structural changes
in the US-Japan and US-Korea alliances, and argues that China’s foreign policy making elites act
as cue-givers, shaping the decision on how to manage security threats from each alliance.

4. Presenter: Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro

Center Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford,
California, USA
Email: [email protected]

Title: Chinese Foreign Policy: Friend to all, Enemy to None

Abstract: China has reached great power status. But not in the ways we expected. In this talk, Dr.
Mastro argues that China has built power differently from the United States over the past twenty-
five years of its rise. Through an analysis of Chinese foreign policy, she shows that China does
not emulate the United States, but instead pursues different pathways to power, exploits U.S.
blind spots and leverages its comparative advantages. Understanding China’s competitive
strategy provides insights into potentially effective U.S. and regional responses.