International Financial Management 9th

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Chapter 4

Exchange Rate Determination

Lecture Outline
Measuring Exchange Rate Movements

Exchange Rate Equilibrium

Demand for a Currency
Supply of a Currency for Sale
Equilibrium

Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

Relative Inflation Rates
Relative Interest Rates
Relative Income Levels
Government Controls
Expectations
Interaction of Factors

Speculating on Anticipated Exchange Rates

35
36 International Financial Management

Chapter Theme
This chapter provides an overview of the foreign exchange market. It is designed to illustrate (1) why a
market exists, and (2) why exchange rates change over time.

Topics to Stimulate Class Discussion

1. Why are MNCs affected by exchange rate movements?

2. Why did exchange rates change recently?

3. Show the class a current exchange rate table from a periodical—identify spot and forward
quotations. Then show the class an exchange rate table from a date a month ago, or three months
ago. The comparison of tables will illustrate how exchange rates change, and how forward rates of
the earlier date will differ from the spot rate of the future date for a given currency.

4. Make up several scenarios and ask the class how each scenario would, other things equal, affect the
demand for a currency, the supply of a currency for sale, and the equilibrium exchange rate. Then
integrate several scenarios together to illustrate that in reality other things are not held constant,
which makes the assessment of exchange rate movements more difficult.

POINT/COUNTER-POINT:
How Can Persistently Weak Currencies Be Stabilized?
POINT: The currencies of some Latin American countries depreciate against the U.S. dollar on a
consistent basis. The governments of these countries need to attract more capital flows by raising interest
rates and making their currencies more attractive. They also need to insure bank deposits so that foreign
investors who invest in large bank deposits do not need to worry about default risk. In addition, they
could impose capital restrictions on local investors to prevent capital outflows.

COUNTER-POINT: Some Latin American countries have had high inflation, which encourages local
firms and consumers to purchase products from the U.S. instead. Thus, these countries could relieve the
downward pressure on their local currencies by reducing inflation. To reduce inflation, a country may
have to reduce economic growth temporarily. These countries should not raise their interest rates in
order to attract foreign investment, because they will still not attract funds if investors fear that there
will be large capital outflows upon the first threat of continued depreciation.

WHO IS CORRECT? Use the Internet to learn more about this issue. Which argument do you support?
Offer your own opinion on this issue.

ANSWER: There is no perfect solution, but recognize the tradeoffs. The proposal to raise interest rates
is not a good solution in the long run, because it will cause higher loan rates, and may slow down the
economies in the long run. Effective anti-inflationary policies are needed to prevent further depreciation.
However, the elimination of inflation that is caused by a wage-price spiral may cause some pain among
the workers in the country, as some form of wage controls may be needed. The government has various
means of reducing inflation, but all of them can have adverse effects on the economy in the short run.
Chapter 4: Exchange Rate Determination 37

Answers to End of Chapter Questions

1. Percentage Depreciation. Assume the spot rate of the British pound is $1.73. The expected spot
rate one year from now is assumed to be $1.66. What percentage depreciation does this reflect?

ANSWER: ($1.66 – $1.73)/$1.73 = –4.05%

Expected depreciation of 4.05% percent

2. Inflation Effects on Exchange Rates. Assume that the U.S. inflation rate becomes high relative to
Canadian inflation. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) U.S. demand for
Canadian dollars, (b) supply of Canadian dollars for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of the Canadian
dollar?

ANSWER: Demand for Canadian dollars should increase, supply of Canadian dollars for sale should
decrease, and the Canadian dollar’s value should increase.

3. Interest Rate Effects on Exchange Rates. Assume U.S. interest rates fall relative to British interest
rates. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) U.S. demand for British pounds, (b)
supply of pounds for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of the pound?

ANSWER: Demand for pounds should increase, supply of pounds for sale should decrease, and the
pound’s value should increase.

4. Income Effects on Exchange Rates. Assume that the U.S. income level rises at a much higher rate
than does the Canadian income level. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a) U.S.
demand for Canadian dollars, (b) supply of Canadian dollars for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of
the Canadian dollar?

ANSWER: Assuming no effect on U.S. interest rates, demand for dollars should increase, supply of
dollars for sale may not be affected, and the dollar’s value should increase.

5. Trade Restriction Effects on Exchange Rates. Assume that the Japanese government relaxes its
controls on imports by Japanese companies. Other things being equal, how should this affect the (a)
U.S. demand for Japanese yen, (b) supply of yen for sale, and (c) equilibrium value of the yen?

ANSWER: Demand for yen should not be affected, supply of yen for sale should increase, and the
value of yen should decrease.

6. Effects of Real Interest Rates. What is the expected relationship between the relative real interest
rates of two countries and the exchange rate of their currencies?

ANSWER: The higher the real interest rate of a country relative to another country, the stronger
will be its home currency, other things equal.

7. Speculative Effects on Exchange Rates. Explain why a public forecast by a respected economist
about future interest rates could affect the value of the dollar today. Why do some forecasts by
well-respected economists have no impact on today’s value of the dollar?
38 International Financial Management

ANSWER: Interest rate movements affect exchange rates. Speculators can use anticipated interest
rate movements to forecast exchange rate movements. They may decide to purchase securities in
particular countries because of their expectations about currency movements, since their yield will
be affected by changes in a currency’s value. These purchases of securities require an exchange of
currencies, which can immediately affect the equilibrium value of exchange rates.

If a forecast of interest rates by a respected economist was already anticipated by market participants
or is not different from investors’ original expectations, an announced forecast does not provide new
information. Thus, there would be no reaction by investors to such an announcement, and exchange
rates would not be affected.

8. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates. What factors affect the future movements in the value of the
euro against the dollar?

ANSWER: The euro’s value could change because of the balance of trade, which reflects more U.S.
demand for European goods than the European demand for U.S. goods. The capital flows between
the U.S. and Europe will also affect the U.S. demand for euros and the supply of euros for sale (to
be exchanged for dollars).

9. Interaction of Exchange Rates. Assume that there are substantial capital flows among Canada, the
U.S., and Japan. If interest rates in Canada decline to a level below the U.S. interest rate, and
inflationary expectations remain unchanged, how could this affect the value of the Canadian dollar
against the U.S. dollar? How might this decline in Canada’s interest rates possibly affect the value
of the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen?

ANSWER: If interest rates in Canada decline, there may be an increase in capital flows from Canada
to the U.S. In addition, U.S. investors may attempt to capitalize on higher U.S. interest rates, while
U.S. investors reduce their investments in Canada’s securities. This places downward pressure on
the Canadian dollar’s value.

Japanese investors that previously invested in Canada may shift to the U.S. Thus, the reduced flow
of funds from Japan would place downward pressure on the Canadian dollar against the Japanese
yen.

10. Trade Deficit Effects on Exchange Rates. Every month, the U.S. trade deficit figures are
announced. Foreign exchange traders often react to this announcement and even attempt to forecast
the figures before they are announced.

a. Why do you think the trade deficit announcement sometimes has such an impact on foreign
exchange trading?

ANSWER: The trade deficit announcement may provide a reasonable forecast of future trade
deficits and therefore has implications about supply and demand conditions in the foreign exchange
market. For example, if the trade deficit was larger than anticipated, and is expected to continue,
this implies that the U.S. demand for foreign currencies may be larger than initially anticipated.
Thus, the dollar would be expected to weaken. Some speculators may take a position in foreign
currencies immediately and could cause an immediate decline in the dollar.

b. In some periods, foreign exchange traders do not respond to a trade deficit announcement, even
when the announced deficit is very large. Offer an explanation for such a lack of response.
Chapter 4: Exchange Rate Determination 39

ANSWER: If the market correctly anticipated the trade deficit figure, then any news contained in
the announcement has already been accounted for in the market. The market should only respond to
an announcement about the trade deficit if the announcement contains new information.

11. Comovements of Exchange Rates. Explain why the value of the British pound against the dollar
will not always move in tandem with the value of the euro against the dollar.

ANSWER: The euro’s value changes in response to the flow of funds between the U.S. and the
countries using the euro or their currency. The pound’s value changes in response to the flow of
funds between the U.S. and the U.K. [Answer is based on intuition, is not directly from the text.]

12. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates. In the 1990s, Russia was attempting to import more goods but
had little to offer other countries in terms of potential exports. In addition, Russia’s inflation rate
was high. Explain the type of pressure that these factors placed on the Russian currency.

ANSWER: The large amount of Russian imports and lack of Russian exports placed downward
pressure on the Russian currency. The high inflation rate in Russia also placed downward pressure
on the Russian currency.

13. National Income Effects. Analysts commonly attribute the appreciation of a currency to
expectations that economic conditions will strengthen. Yet, this chapter suggests that when other
factors are held constant, increased national income could increase imports and cause the local
currency to weaken. In reality, other factors are not constant. What other factor is likely to be
affected by increased economic growth and could place upward pressure on the value of the local
currency?

ANSWER: Interest rates tend to rise in response to a stronger economy, and higher interest rates
can place upward pressure on the local currency (as long as there is not offsetting pressure by higher
expected inflation).

14. Factors Affecting Exchange Rates. If the Asian countries experience a decline in economic growth
(and experience a decline in inflation and interest rates as a result), how will their currency values
(relative to the U.S. dollar) be affected?

ANSWER: A relative decline in Asian economic growth will reduce Asian demand for U.S.
products, which places upward pressure on Asian currencies. However, given the change in interest
rates, Asian corporations with excess cash may now invest in the U.S. or other countries, thereby
increasing the demand for U.S. dollars. Thus, a decline in Asian interest rates will place downward
pressure on the value of the Asian currencies. The overall impact depends on the magnitude of the
forces just described.

15. Impact of Crises. Why do you think most crises in countries (such as the Asian crisis) cause the
local currency to weaken abruptly? Is it because of trade or capital flows?

ANSWER: Capital flows have a larger influence. In general, crises tend to cause investors to expect
that there will be less investment in the country in the future and also cause concern that any existing
investments will generate poor returns (because of defaults on loans or reduced valuations of stocks).
Thus, as investors liquidate their investments and convert the local currency into other currencies to
invest elsewhere, downward pressure is placed on the local currency.
Another document from Scribd.com that is
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hypotheses which first offer themselves to men’s minds are opposed to
each other. And if we have no theoretical History of the Earth which
merits any confidence, still less have we any theoretical History of
Language, or of the Arts, which we can consider as satisfactory. The
Theoretical History of the Vegetable and Animal Kingdoms is closely
connected with that of the Earth on which they subsist, and must follow
the fortunes of Geology. And thus we may venture to say that no
Palætiological Science, as yet, possesses all its three members. Indeed
most of them are very far from having completed and systematized their
Phenomenology: in all, the cultivation of Ætiology is but just begun, or
is not begun; in all, the Theory must reward the exertions of future,
probably of distant, generations.
13
Hist. Ind. Sc. b. xviii. c. vii. sect. 3.

But in the mean time we may derive some instruction from the
comparison of the two antagonist hypotheses of which I have spoken.
 CHAPTER III.

O D C D U .

1. Doctrine of Catastrophes.—I already shown, in the History of

Geology, that the attempts to frame a theory of the earth have brought
into view two completely opposite opinions:—one, which represents the
course of nature as uniform through all ages, the causes which produce
change having had the same intensity in former times which they have at
the present day;—the other opinion, which sees, in the present condition
of things, evidences of catastrophes;—changes of a more sweeping kind,
and produced by more powerful agencies than those which occur in
recent times. Geologists who held the latter opinion, maintained that the
forces which have elevated the Alps or the Andes to their present height
could not have been any forces which are now in action: they pointed to
vast masses of strata hundreds of miles long, thousands of feet thick,
thrown into highly-inclined positions, fractured, dislocated, crushed: they
remarked that upon the shattered edges of such strata they found
enormous accumulations of fragments and rubbish, rounded by the
action of water, so as to denote ages of violent aqueous action: they
conceived that they saw instances in which whole mountains of rock in a
state of igneous fusion, must have burst the earth’s crust from below:
they found that in the course of the revolutions by which one stratum of
rock was placed upon another, the whole collection of animal species
which tenanted the earth and the seas had been removed, and a new set
of living things introduced in its place: finally, they found, above all the
strata, 285 vast masses of sand and gravel containing bones of animals,
and apparently the work of a mighty deluge. With all these proofs before
their eyes, they thought it impossible not to judge that the agents of
change by which the world was urged from one condition to another till
it reached its present state must have been more violent, more powerful,
than any which we see at work around us. They conceived that the
evidence of ‘catastrophes’ was irresistible.

2. Doctrine of Uniformity.—I need not here repeat the narrative (given

in the History 14 ) of the process by which this formidable array of proofs
was, in the minds of some eminent geologists, weakened, and at last
overcome. This was done by showing that the sudden breaks in the
succession of strata were apparent only, the discontinuity of the series
which occurred in one country being removed by terms interposed in
another locality:—by urging that the total effect produced by existing
causes, taking into account the accumulated result of long periods, is far
greater than a casual speculator would think possible:—by making it
appear that there are in many parts of the world evidences of a slow and
imperceptible rising of the land since it was the habitation of now
existing species:—by proving that it is not universally true that the strata
separated in time by supposed catastrophes contain distinct species of
animals:—by pointing out the limited fields of the supposed diluvial
action:—and finally, by remarking that though the creation of species is
a mystery, the extinction of species is going on in our own day.
Hypotheses were suggested, too, by which it was conceived that the
change of climate might be explained, which, as the consideration of the
fossil remains seemed to show, must have taken place between the
ancient and the modern times. In this manner the whole evidence of
catastrophes was explained away: the notion of a series of paroxysms of
violence in the causes of change was represented as a delusion arising
from our 286 contemplating short periods only, in the action of present
causes: length of time was called in to take the place of intensity of
force: and it was declared that Geology need not despair of accounting
for the revolutions of the earth, as Astronomy accounts for the
revolutions of the heavens, by the universal action of causes which are
close at hand to us, operating through time and space without variation
or decay.
14
Hist. Ind. Sc. b. xviii. c. viii. sect. 2.
 An antagonism of opinions, somewhat of the same kind as this, will be
found to manifest itself in the other Palætiological Sciences as well as in
Geology; and it will be instructive to endeavour to balance these
opposite doctrines. I will mention some of the considerations which bear
upon the subject in its general form.

3. Is Uniformity probable à priori?—The doctrine of Uniformity in

the course of nature has sometimes been represented by its adherents as
possessing a great degree of à priori probability. It is highly
unphilosophical, it has been urged, to assume that the causes of the
geological events of former times were of a different kind from causes
now in action, if causes of this latter kind can in any way be made to
explain the facts. The analogy of all other sciences compels us, it was
said, to explain phenomena by known, not by unknown, causes. And on
these grounds the geological teacher recommended 15 ‘an earnest and
patient endeavour to reconcile the indications of former change with the
evidence of gradual mutations now in progress.’
15
Lyell, 4th ed. b. iv. c. i. p. 328.

But on this we may remark, that if by known causes we mean causes

acting with the same intensity which they have had during historical
times, the restriction is altogether arbitrary and groundless. Let it be
granted, for instance, that many parts of the earth’s surface are now
undergoing an imperceptible rise. It is not pretended that the rate of this
elevation is rigorously uniform; what, then, are the limits of its velocity?
Why may it not increase so as to assume that character of violence which
we may term a 287 catastrophe with reference to all changes hitherto
recorded? Why may not the rate of elevation be such that we may
conceive the strata to assume suddenly a position nearly vertical? And is
it, in fact, easy to conceive a position of strata nearly vertical, a position
which occurs so frequently, to be gradually assumed? In cases where the
strata are nearly vertical, as in the Isle of Wight, and hundreds of other
places, or where they are actually inverted, as sometimes occurs, are not
the causes which have produced the effect as truly known causes, as
those which have raised the coasts where we trace the former beach in an
elevated terrace? If the latter case proves slow elevation, does not the
former case prove rapid elevation? In neither case have we any measure
of the time employed in the change; but does not the very nature of the
results enable us to discern, that if one was gradual, the other was
comparatively sudden?

The causes which are now elevating a portion of Scandinavia can be

called known causes, only because we know the effect. Are not the
causes which have elevated the Alps and the Andes known causes in the
same sense? We know nothing in either case which confines the intensity
of the force within any limit, or prescribes to it any law of uniformity.
Why, then, should we make a merit of cramping our speculations by such
assumptions? Whether the causes of change do act uniformly;—whether
they oscillate only within narrow limits;—whether their intensity in
former times was nearly the same as it now is;—these are precisely the
questions which we wish Science to answer to us impartially and truly:
where is then the wisdom of ‘an earnest and patient endeavour’ to secure
an affirmative reply?

Thus I conceive that the assertion of an à priori claim to probability

and philosophical spirit in favour of the doctrine of uniformity, is quite
untenable. We must learn from an examination of all the facts, and not
from any assumption of our own, whether the course of nature be
uniform. The limit of intensity being really unknown, catastrophes are
just as probable 288 as uniformity. If a volcano may repose for a thousand
years, and then break out and destroy a city; why may not another
volcano repose for ten thousand years, and then destroy a continent; or if
a continent, why not the whole habitable surface of the earth?

4. Cycle of Uniformity indefinite.—But this argument may be put in

another form. When it is said that the course of nature is uniform, the
assertion is not intended to exclude certain smaller variations of violence
and rest, such as we have just spoken of;—alternations of activity and
repose in volcanoes; or earthquakes, deluges, and storms, interposed in a
more tranquil state of things. With regard to such occurrences, terrible as
they appear at the time, they may not much affect the average rate of
change; there may be a cycle, though an irregular one, of rapid and slow
change; and if such cycles go on succeeding each other, we may still call
the order of nature uniform, notwithstanding the periods of violence
which it involves. The maximum and minimum intensities of the forces
of mutation alternate with one another; and we may estimate the average
course of nature as that which corresponds to something between the two
extremes.

But if we thus attempt to maintain the uniformity of nature by

representing it as a series of cycles, we find that we cannot discover, in
this conception, any solid ground for excluding catastrophes. What is the
length of that cycle, the repetition of which constitutes uniformity? What
interval from the maximum to the minimum does it admit of? We may
take for our cycle a hundred or a thousand years, but evidently such a
proceeding is altogether arbitrary. We may mark our cycles by the
greatest known paroxysms of volcanic and terremotive agency, but this
procedure is no less indefinite and inconclusive than the other.

But further; since the cycle in which violence and repose alternate is
thus indefinite in its length and in its range of activity, what ground have
we for assuming more than one such cycle, extending from the origin of
things to the present time? Why may we not suppose the maximum force
of the causes of change 289 to have taken place at the earliest period, and
the tendency towards the minimum to have gone on ever since? Or
instead of only one cycle, there may have been several, but of such
length that our historical period forms a portion only of the last;—the
feeblest portion of the latest cycle. And thus violence and repose may
alternate upon a scale of time and intensity so large, that man’s
experience supplies no evidence enabling him to estimate the amount.
The course of things is uniform, to an Intelligence which can embrace
the succession of several cycles, but it is catastrophic to the
contemplation of man, whose survey can grasp a part only of one cycle.
And thus the hypothesis of uniformity, since it cannot exclude degrees of
change, nor limit the range of these degrees, nor define the interval of
their recurrence, cannot possess any essential simplicity which, previous
to inquiry, gives it a claim upon our assent superior to that of the
opposite catastrophic hypothesis.

5. Uniformitarian Arguments are Negative only.—There is an opposite

tendency in the mode of maintaining the catastrophist and the
uniformitarian opinions, which depends upon their fundamental
principles, and shows itself in all the controversies between them. The
Catastrophist is affirmative, the Uniformitarian is negative in his
assertions: the former is constantly attempting to construct a theory; the
latter delights in demolishing all theories. The one is constantly bringing
fresh evidence of some great past event, or series of events, of a striking
and definite kind; his antagonist is at every step explaining away the
evidence, and showing that it proves nothing. One geologist adduces his
proofs of a vast universal deluge; but another endeavours to show that
the proofs do not establish either the universality or the vastness of such
an event. The inclined broken edges of a certain formation, covered with
their own fragments, beneath superjacent horizontal deposits, are at one
time supposed to prove a catastrophic breaking up of the earlier strata;
but this opinion is controverted by showing that the same formations,
when pursued into other countries, 290 exhibit a uniform gradation from
the lower to the upper, with no trace of violence. Extensive and lofty
elevations of the coast, continents of igneous rock, at first appear to
indicate operations far more gigantic than those which now occur; but
attempts are soon made to show that time only is wanting to enable the
present age to rival the past in the production of such changes. Each new
fact adduced by the catastrophist is at first striking and apparently
convincing; but as it becomes familiar, it strikes the imagination less
powerfully; and the uniformitarian, constantly labouring to produce
some imitation of it by the machinery which he has so well studied, at
last in every case seems to himself to succeed, so far as to destroy the
effect of his opponent’s evidence.
 This is so with regard to more remote, as well as with regard to
immediate evidences of change. When it is ascertained that in every part
of the earth’s crust the temperature increases as we descend below the
surface, at first this fact seems to indicate a central heat: and a central
heat naturally suggests an earlier state of the mass, in which it was
incandescent, and from which it is now cooling. But this original
incandescence of the globe of the earth is manifestly an entire violation
of the present course of things; it belongs to the catastrophist view, and
the advocates of uniformity have to explain it away. Accordingly, one of
them holds that this increase of heat in descending below the surface
may very possibly not go on all the way to the center. The heat which
increases at first as we descend, may, he conceives, afterwards decrease;
and he suggests causes which may have produced such a succession of
hotter and colder shells within the mass of the earth. I have mentioned
this suggestion in the History of Geology; and have given my reasons for
believing it altogether untenable 16 . Other persons also, desirous of
reconciling this subterraneous heat with the tenet of uniformity, have 291
offered another suggestion:—that the warmth or incandescence of the
interior parts of the earth does not arise out of an originally hot condition
from which it is gradually cooling, but results from chemical action
constantly going on among the materials of the earth’s substance. And
thus new attempts are perpetually making, to escape from the cogency of
the reasonings which send us towards an original state of things different
from the present. Those who theorize concerning an origin go on
building up the fabric of their speculations, while those who think such
theories unphilosophical, ever and anon dig away the foundation of this
structure. As we have already said, the uniformitarian’s doctrines are a
collection of negatives.
16
Hist. Ind. Sc. b. xviii. c. v. sect. 5, and note.

This is so entirely the case, that the uniformitarian would for the most
part shrink from maintaining as positive tenets the explanations which he
so willingly uses as instruments of controversy. He puts forward his
suggestions as difficulties, but he will not stand by them as doctrines.
And this is in accordance with his general tendency; for any of his
hypotheses, if insisted upon as positive theories, would be found
inconsistent with the assertion of uniformity. For example, the nebular
hypothesis appears to give to the history of the heavens an aspect which
obliterates all special acts of creation, for, according to that hypothesis,
new planetary systems are constantly forming; but when asserted as the
origin of our own solar system, it brings with it an original
incandescence, and an origin of the organic world. And if, instead of
using the chemical theory of subterraneous heat to neutralize the
evidence of original incandescence, we assert it as a positive tenet, we
can no longer maintain the infinite past duration of the earth; for
chemical forces, as well as mechanical, tend to equilibrium; and that
condition once attained, their efficacy ceases. Chemical affinities tend to
form new compounds; and though, when many and various elements are
mingled together, the play of synthesis and analysis may go on for a long
time, it must at last end. If, for instance, a large portion of the earth’s
mass were originally pure potassium, we 292 can imagine violent igneous
action to go on so long as any part remained unoxidized; but when the
oxidation of the whole has once taken place, this action must be at an
end; for there is in the hypothesis no agency which can reproduce the
deoxidized metal. Thus a perpetual motion is impossible in chemistry, as
it is in mechanics; and a theory of constant change continued through
infinite time, is untenable when asserted upon chemical, no less than
upon mechanical principles. And thus the Skepticism of the
uniformitarian is of force only so long as it is employed against the
Dogmatism of the catastrophist. When the Doubts are erected into
Dogmas, they are no longer consistent with the tenet of Uniformity.
When the Negations become Affirmations, the Negation of an Origin
vanishes also.

6. Uniformity in the Organic World.—In speaking of the violent and

sudden changes which constitute catastrophes, our thoughts naturally
turn at first to great mechanical and physical effects;—ruptures and
displacements of strata; extensive submersions and emersions of land;
rapid changes of temperature. But the catastrophes which we have to
consider in geology affect the organic as well as the inorganic world.
The sudden extinction of one collection of species, and the introduction
of another in their place, is a Catastrophe, even if unaccompanied by
mechanical violence. Accordingly, the antagonism of the catastrophist
and uniformitarian schools has shown itself in this department of the
subject, as well as in the other. When geologists had first discovered that
the successive strata are each distinguished by appropriate organic
fossils, they assumed at once that each of these collections of living
things belonged to a separate creation. But this conclusion, as I have
already said, Sir C. Lyell has attempted to invalidate, by proving that in
the existing order of things, some species become extinct; and by
suggesting it as possible, that in the same order, it may be true that new
species are from time to time produced, even in the present course of
nature. And in this, as in the other part of the subject, he calls in 293 the
aid of vast periods of time, in order that the violence of the changes may
be softened down: and he appears disposed to believe that the actual
extinction and creation of species may be so slow as to excite no more
notice than it has hitherto obtained; and yet may be rapid enough,
considering the immensity of geological periods, to produce such a
succession of different collections of species as we find in the strata of
the earth’s surface.

7. Origin of the present Organic World.—The last great event in the

history of the vegetable and animal kingdoms was that by which their
various tribes were placed in their present seats. And we may form
various hypotheses with regard to the sudden or gradual manner in which
we may suppose this distribution to have taken place. We may assume
that at the beginning of the present order of things, a stock of each
species was placed in the vegetable or animal province to which it
belongs, by some cause out of the common order of nature; or we may
take a uniformitarian view of the subject, and suppose that the provinces
of the organic world derived their population from some anterior state of
things by the operation of natural causes.
 Nothing has been pointed out in the existing order of things which has
any analogy or resemblance, of any valid kind, to that creative energy
which must be exerted in the production of a new species. And to assume
the introduction of new species as ‘a part of the order of nature,’ without
pointing out any natural fact with which such an event can be classed,
would be to reject creation by an arbitrary act. Hence, even on natural
grounds, the most intelligible view of the history of the animal and
vegetable kingdoms seems to be, that each period which is marked by a
distinct collection of species forms a cycle; and that at the beginning of
each such cycle a creative power was exerted, of a kind to which there
was nothing at all analogous in the succeeding part of the same cycle. If
it be urged that in some cases the same species, or the same genus, runs
through two geological formations, 294 which must, on other grounds, be
referred to different cycles of creative energy, we may reply that the
creation of many new species does not imply the extinction of all the old
ones.

Thus we are led by our reasonings to this view, that the present order
of things was commenced by an act of creative power entirely different
to any agency which has been exerted since. None of the influences
which have modified the present races of animals and plants since they
were placed in their habitations on the earth’s surface can have had any
efficacy in producing them at first. We are necessarily driven to assume,
as the beginning of the present cycle of organic nature, an event not
included in the course of nature. And we may remark that this necessity
is the more cogent, precisely because other cycles have preceded the
present.

8. Nebular Origin of the Solar System.—If we attempt to apply the

same antithesis of opinion (the doctrines of Catastrophe and Uniformity)
to the other subjects of palætiological sciences, we shall be led to similar
conclusions. Thus, if we turn our attention to Astronomical Palætiology,
we perceive that the Nebular Hypothesis has a uniformitarian tendency.
According to this hypothesis the formation of this our system of sun,
planets, and satellites, was a process of the same kind as those which are
still going on in the heavens. One after another, nebulæ condense into
separate masses, which begin to revolve about each other by mechanical
necessity, and form systems of which our solar system is a finished
example. But we may remark, that the uniformitarian doctrine on this
subject rests on most unstable foundations. We have as yet only very
vague and imperfect reasonings to show that by such condensation a
material system such as ours could result; and the introduction of
organized beings into such a material system is utterly out of the reach of
our philosophy. Here again, therefore, we are led to regard the present
order of the world as pointing towards an origin altogether of a different
kind from anything which our material science can grasp. 295

9. Origin of Languages.—We may venture to say that we should be

led to the same conclusion once more, if we were to take into our
consideration those palætiological sciences which are beyond the domain
of matter; for instance, the History of Languages. We may explain many
of the differences and changes which we become acquainted with, by
referring to the action of causes of change which still operate. But what
glossologist will venture to declare that the efficacy of such causes has
been uniform;—that the influences which mould a language, or make
one language differ from others of the same stock, operated formerly
with no more efficacy than they exercise now. ‘Where,’ as has elsewhere
been asked, ‘do we now find a language in the process of formation,
unfolding itself in inflexions, terminations, changes of vowels by
grammatical relations, such as characterise the oldest known languages?’
Again, as another proof how little the history of languages suggests to
the philosophical glossologist the persuasion of a uniform action of the
causes of change, I may refer to the conjecture of Dr. Prichard, that the
varieties of language produced by the separation of one stock into
several, have been greater and greater as we go backwards in history:—
that 17 the formation of sister dialects from a common language (as the
Scandinavian, German, and Saxon dialects from the Teutonic, or the
Gaelic, Erse and Welsh from the Celtic) belongs to the first millennium
before the Christian era; while the formation of cognate languages of the
same family, as the Sanskrit, Latin, Greek and Gothic, must be placed at
least two thousand years before that era; and at a still earlier period took
place the separation of the great families themselves, the Indo-European,
Semitic, and others, in which it is now difficult to trace the features of a
common origin. No hypothesis except one of this kind will explain the
existence of the families, groups, and dialects of languages, which we
find in existence. Yet this is an entirely different view from that which
296 the hypothesis of the uniform progress of change would give. And
thus, in the earliest stages of man’s career, the revolutions of language
must have been, even by the evidence of the theoretical history of
language itself, of an order altogether different from any which have
taken place within the recent history of man. And we may add, that as the
early stages of the progress of language must have been widely different
from those later ones of which we can in some measure trace the natural
causes, we cannot place the origin of language in any point of view in
which it comes under the jurisdiction of natural causation at all.
17
Researches, ii. 224.

10. No Natural Origin discoverable.—We are thus led by a survey of

several of the palætiological sciences to a confirmation of the principle
formerly asserted 18 , That in no palætiological science has man been able
to arrive at a beginning which is homogeneous with the known course of
events. We can in such sciences often go very far back;—determine
many of the remote circumstances of the past series of events;—ascend
to a point which seems to be near the origin;—and limit the hypotheses
respecting the origin itself: but philosophers never have demonstrated,
and, so far as we can judge, probably never will be able to demonstrate,
what was that primitive state of things from which the progressive course
of the world took its first departure. In all these paths of research, when
we travel far backwards, the aspect of the earlier portions becomes very
different from that of the advanced part on which we now stand; but in
all cases the path is lost in obscurity as it is traced backwards towards its
starting-point: it becomes not only invisible, but unimaginable; it is not
only an interruption, but an abyss, which interposes itself between us and
any intelligible beginning of things.
18
Hist. Ind. Sc. b. xviii. c. vi. sect 5.
 CHAPTER IV.

O R T P .

1. Importance of Tradition.—S the Palætiological Sciences have it

for their business to study the train of past events produced by natural
causes down to the present time, the knowledge concerning such events
which is supplied by the remembrance and records of man, in whatever
form, must have an important bearing upon these sciences. All changes
in the condition and extent of land and sea, which have taken place
within man’s observation, all effects of deluges, sea-waves, rivers,
springs, volcanoes, earthquakes, and the like, which come within the
reach of human history, have a strong interest for the palætiologist. Nor
is he less concerned in all recorded instances of the modification of the
forms and habits of plants and animals, by the operations of man, or by
transfer from one land to another. And when we come to the Palætiology
of Language, of Art, of Civilization, we find our subject still more
closely connected with history; for in truth these are historical, no less
than palætiological investigations. But, confining ourselves at present to
the material sciences, we may observe that though the importance of the
information which tradition gives us, in the sciences now under our
consideration, as, for instance, geology, has long been tacitly recognised;
yet it is only recently that geologists have employed themselves in
collecting their historical facts upon such a scale and with such
comprehensive views as are required by the interest and use of
collections of this kind. The Essay of Von 298 Hoff 19 , On the Natural
Alterations in the Surface of the Earth which are proved by Tradition,
was the work which first opened the eyes of geologists to the extent and
importance of this kind of investigation. Since that time the same path of
research has been pursued with great perseverance by others, especially
by Sir C. Lyell; and is now justly considered as an essential portion of
Geology.
 19
Vol. i. 1822; vol. ii. 1824.

2. Connexion of Tradition and Science.—Events which we might

naturally expect to have some bearing on geology, are narrated in the
historical writings which, even on mere human grounds, have the
strongest claim to our respect as records of the early history of the world,
and are confirmed by the traditions of various nations all over the globe;
namely, the formation of the earth and of its population, and a
subsequent deluge. It has been made a matter of controversy how the
narrative of these events is to be understood, so as to make it agree with
the facts which an examination of the earth’s surface and of its vegetable
and animal population discloses to us. Such controversies, when they are
considered as merely archæological, may occur in any of the
palætiological sciences. We may have to compare and to reconcile the
evidence of existing phenomena with that of historical tradition. But
under some circumstances this process of conciliation may assume an
interest of another kind, on which we will make a few remarks.

3. Natural and Providential History of the World.—We may

contemplate the existence of man upon the earth, his origin and his
progress, in the same manner as we contemplate the existence of any
other race of animals; namely, in a purely palætiological view. We may
consider how far our knowledge of laws of causation enables us to
explain his diffusion and migration, his differences and resemblances, his
actions and works. And this is the view of man as a member of the
Natural Course of Things. 299

But man, at the same time the contemplator and the subject of his own
contemplation, endowed with faculties and powers which make him a
being of a different nature from other animals, cannot help regarding his
own actions and enjoyments, his recollections and his hopes, under an
aspect quite different from any that we have yet had presented to us. We
have been endeavouring to place in a clear light the Fundamental Ideas,
such as that of Cause, on which depends our knowledge of the natural
course of things. But there are other Ideas to which man necessarily
refers his actions; he is led by his nature, not only to consider his own
actions, and those of his fellow-men, as springing out of this or that
cause, leading to this or that material result; but also as good or bad, as
what they ought or ought not to be. He has Ideas of moral relations as
well as those Ideas of material relations with which we have hitherto
been occupied. He is a moral as well as a natural agent.

Contemplating himself and the world around him by the light of his
Moral Ideas, man is led to the conviction that his moral faculties were
bestowed upon him by design and for a purpose; that he is the subject of
a Moral Government; that the course of the world is directed by the
Power which governs it, to the unfolding and perfecting of man’s moral
nature; that this guidance may be traced in the career of individuals and
of the world; that there is a Providential as well as a Natural Course of
Things.

Yet this view is beset by no small difficulties. The full development of

man’s moral faculties;—the perfection of his nature up to the measure of
his own ideas;—the adaptation of his moral being to an ultimate
destination, by its transit through a world full of moral evil, in which evil
each person has his share;—are effects for which the economy of the
world appears to contain no adequate provision. Man, though aware of
his moral nature, and ready to believe in an ultimate destination of purity
and blessedness, is too feeble to resist the temptation of evil, and too
helpless to restore his purity when once lost. He cannot but look for 300
some confirmation of that providential order which he has begun to
believe; some provision for those deficiencies in his moral condition
which he has begun to feel.

He looks at the history of the world, and he finds that at a certain

period it offers to him the promise of what he seeks. When the natural
powers of man had been developed to their full extent, and were
beginning to exhibit symptoms of decay;—when the intellectual progress
of the world appeared to have reached its limit, without supplying man’s
moral needs;—we find the great Epoch in the Providential History of the
world. We find the announcement of a Dispensation by which man’s
deficiencies shall be supplied and his aspirations fulfilled: we find a
provision for the purification, the support, and the ultimate beatification
of those who use the provided means. And thus the providential course
of the world becomes consistent and intelligible.

4. The Sacred Narrative.—But with the new Dispensation, we receive,

not only an account of its own scheme and history, but also a written
narrative of the providential course of the world from the earliest times,
and even from its first creation. This narrative is recognized and
authorized by the new dispensation, and accredited by some of the same
evidences as the dispensation itself. That the existence of such a sacred
narrative should be a part of the providential order of things, cannot but
appear natural; but, naturally also, the study of it leads to some
difficulties.

The Sacred Narrative in some of its earliest portions speaks of natural

objects and occurrences respecting them. In the very beginning of the
course of the world, we may readily believe (indeed, as we have seen in
the last chapter, our scientific researches lead us to believe) that such
occurrences were very different from anything which now takes place;—
different to an extent and in a manner which we cannot estimate. Now
the narrative must speak of objects and occurrences in the words and
phrases which have derived their meaning from their application to the
existing natural state of things. When applied to an initial 301
supernatural state therefore, these words and phrases cannot help being
to us obscure and mysterious, perhaps ambiguous and seemingly
contradictory.

5. Difficulties in interpreting the Sacred Narrative.—The moral and

providential relations of man’s condition are so much more important to
him than mere natural relations, that at first we may well suppose he will
accept the Sacred Narrative, as not only unquestionable in its true
import, but also as a guide in his views even of mere natural things. He
will try to modify the conceptions which he entertains of objects and
their properties, so that the Sacred Narrative of the supernatural
condition shall retain the first meaning which he had put upon it in virtue
of his own habits in the usage of language.

But man is so constituted that he cannot persist in this procedure. The

powers and tendencies of his intellect are such that he cannot help trying
to attain true conceptions of objects and their properties by the study of
things themselves. For instance, when he at first read of a firmament
dividing the waters above from the waters below, he perhaps conceived a
transparent floor in the skies, on which the superior waters rested, which
descend in rain; but as his observations and his reasonings satisfied him
that such a floor could not exist, he became willing to allow (as St.
Augustine allowed) that the waters above the firmament are in a state of
vapour. And in like manner in other subjects, men, as their views of
nature became more distinct and precise, modified, so far as it was
necessary for consistency’s sake, their first rude interpretations of the
Sacred Narrative; so that, without in any degree losing its import as a
view of the providential course of the world, it should be so conceived as
not to contradict what they knew of the natural order of things.

But this accommodation was not always made without painful

struggles and angry controversies. When men had conceived the
occurrences of the Sacred Narrative in a particular manner, they could
not readily and willingly adopt a new mode of conception; and all
attempts to recommend to them such novelties, they 302 resisted as
attacks upon the sacredness of the Narrative. They had clothed their
belief of the workings of Providence in certain images; and they clung to
those images with the persuasion that, without them, their belief could
not subsist. Thus they imagined to themselves that the earth was a flat
floor, solidly and broadly laid for the convenience of man; and they felt
as if the kindness of Providence was disparaged, when it was maintained
that the earth was a globe held together only by the mutual attraction of
its parts.
 The most memorable instance of a struggle of this kind is to be found
in the circumstances which attended the introduction of the Heliocentric
Theory of Copernicus to general acceptance. On this controversy I have
already made some remarks in the History of Science 20 , and have
attempted to draw from it some lessons which may be useful to us when
any similar conflict of opinions may occur. I will here add a few
reflections with a similar view.
20
B. v. c. iii. sect. 4.

6. Such difficulties inevitable.—In the first place, I remark that such

modifications of the current interpretation of the words of Scripture
appear to be an inevitable consequence of the progressive character of
Natural Science. Science is constantly teaching us to describe known
facts in new language; but the language of Scripture is always the same.
And not only so, but the language of Scripture is necessarily adapted to
the common state of man’s intellectual development, in which he is
supposed not to be possessed of science. Hence the phrases used by
Scripture are precisely those which science soon teaches man to consider
as inaccurate. Yet they are not, on that account, the less fitted for their
proper purpose: for if any terms had been used, adapted to a more
advanced state of knowledge, they must have been unintelligible among
those to whom the Scripture was first addressed. If the Jews had been
told that water existed in the clouds in small drops, they would have
marvelled that it did 303 not constantly descend; and to have explained
the reason of this, would have been to teach Atmology in the sacred
writings. If they had read in their Scripture that the earth was a sphere,
when it appeared to be a plain, they would only have been disturbed in
their thoughts or driven to some wild and baseless imaginations, by a
declaration to them so strange. If the Divine Speaker, instead of saying
that he would set his bow in the clouds, had been made to declare that he
would give to water the property of refracting different colours at
different angles, how utterly unmeaning to the hearers would the words
have been! And in these cases, the expressions, being unintelligible,
startling, and bewildering, would have been such as tended to unfit the
Sacred Narrative for its place in the providential dispensation of the
world.

Accordingly, in the great controversy which took place in Galileo’s

time between the defenders of the then customary interpretations of
Scripture, and the assertors of the Copernican system of the universe,
when the innovators were upbraided with maintaining opinions contrary
to Scripture, they replied that Scripture was not intended to teach men
astronomy, and that it expressed the acts of divine power in images
which were suited to the ideas of unscientific men. To speak of the rising
and setting and travelling of the sun, of the fixity and of the foundations
of the earth, was to use the only language which would have made the
Sacred Narrative intelligible. To extract from these and the like
expressions doctrines of science, was, they declared, in the highest
degree unjustifiable; and such a course could lead, they held, to no result
but a weakening of the authority of Scripture in proportion as its credit
was identified with that of these modes of applying it. And this judgment
has since been generally assented to by those who most reverence and
value the study of the designs of Providence as well as that of the works
of nature.

7. Science tells us nothing concerning Creation.—Other apparent

difficulties arise from the accounts given in the Scripture of the first
origin of the world 304 in which we live: for example, Light is
represented as created before the Sun. With regard to difficulties of this
kind, it appears that we may derive some instruction from the result to
which we were led in the last chapter;—namely, that in the sciences
which trace the progress of natural occurrences, we can in no case go
back to an origin, but in every instance appear to find ourselves
separated from it by a state of things, and an order of events, of a kind
altogether different from those which come under our experience. The
thread of induction respecting the natural course of the world snaps in
our fingers, when we try to ascertain where its beginning is. Since, then,
science can teach us nothing positive respecting the beginning of things,
she can neither contradict nor confirm what is taught by Scripture on that
subject; and thus, as it is unworthy timidity in the lover of Scripture to
fear contradiction, so is it ungrounded presumption to look for
confirmation, in such cases. The providential history of the world has its
own beginning, and its own evidence; and we can only render the system
insecure, by making it lean on our material sciences. If any one were to
suggest that the nebular hypothesis countenances the Scripture history of
the formation of this system, by showing how the luminous matter of the
sun might exist previous to the sun itself, we should act wisely in
rejecting such an attempt to weave together these two heterogeneous
threads;—the one a part of a providential scheme, the other a fragment of
a physical speculation.

We shall best learn those lessons of the true philosophy of science

which it is our object to collect, by attending to portions of science which
have gone through such crises as we are now considering; nor is it
requisite, for this purpose, to bring forwards any subjects which are still
under discussion. It may, however, be mentioned that such maxims as we
are now endeavouring to establish, and the one before us in particular,
bear with a peculiar force upon those Palætiological Sciences of which
we have been treating in the present Book. 305

8. Scientific views, when familiar, do not disturb the authority of

Scripture.—There is another reflection which may serve to console and
encourage us in the painful struggles which thus take place, between
those who maintain interpretations of Scripture already prevalent and
those who contend for such new ones as the new discoveries of science
require. It is this;—that though the new opinion is resisted by one party
as something destructive of the credit of Scripture and the reverence
which is its due, yet, in fact, when the new interpretation has been
generally established and incorporated with men’s current thoughts, it
ceases to disturb their views of the authority of the Scripture or of the
truth of its teaching. When the language of Scripture, invested with its
new meaning, has become familiar to men, it is found that the ideas
which it calls up are quite as reconcileable as the former ones were, with
the most entire acceptance of the providential dispensation. And when
this has been found to be the case, all cultivated persons look back with
surprise at the mistake of those who thought that the essence of the
revelation was involved in their own arbitrary version of some collateral
circumstance in the revealed narrative. At the present day, we can hardly
conceive how reasonable men could ever have imagined that religious
reflections on the stability of the earth, and the beauty and use of the
luminaries which revolve round it, would be interfered with by an
acknowledgment that this rest and motion are apparent only 21 . And thus
the authority of revelation is not shaken by any changes introduced by
the progress of science in the mode of interpreting expressions which
describe physical objects and occurrences; provided the new
interpretation is admitted at a proper season, and in a proper spirit; so as
to soften, as much as possible, both the public controversies and the
private scruples which almost inevitably accompany such an alteration.
21
I have here borrowed a sentence or two from my own History.

9. When should old Interpretations be given up?—But the question

then occurs, What is the proper 306 season for a religious and enlightened
commentator to make such a change in the current interpretation of
sacred Scripture? At what period ought the established exposition of a
passage to be given up, and a new mode of understanding the passage,
such as is, or seems to be, required by new discoveries respecting the
laws of nature, accepted in its place? It is plain, that to introduce such an
alteration lightly and hastily would be a procedure fraught with
inconvenience; for if the change were made in such a manner, it might be
afterwards discovered that it had been adopted without sufficient reason,
and that it was necessary to reinstate the old exposition. And the minds
of the readers of Scripture, always to a certain extent and for a time
disturbed by the subversion of their long-established notions, would be
distressed without any need, and might be seriously unsettled. While, on
the other hand, a too protracted and obstinate resistance to the
innovation, on the part of the scriptural expositors, would tend to
identify, at least in the minds of many, the authority of the Scripture with
the truth of the exposition; and therefore would bring discredit upon the
revealed word, when the established interpretation was finally proved to
be untenable.

A rule on this subject, propounded by some of the most enlightened

dignitaries of the Roman Catholic church, on the occasion of the great
Copernican controversy begun by Galileo, seems well worthy of our
attention. The following was the opinion given by Cardinal Bellarmine at
the time:—‘When a demonstration shall be found to establish the earth’s
motion, it will be proper to interpret the sacred Scriptures otherwise than
they have hitherto been interpreted in those passages where mention is
made of the stability of the earth and movement of the heavens.’ This
appears to be a judicious and reasonable maxim for such cases in
general. So long as the supposed scientific discovery is doubtful, the
exposition of the meaning of Scripture given by commentators of
established credit is not wantonly to be disturbed: but when a scientific
theory, irreconcileable with this ancient 307 interpretation, is clearly
proved, we must give up the interpretation, and seek some new mode of
understanding the passage in question, by means of which it may be
consistent with what we know; for if it be not, our conception of the
things so described is no longer consistent with itself.

It may be said that this rule is indefinite, for who shall decide when a
new theory is completely demonstrated, and the old interpretation
become untenable? But to this we may reply, that if the rule be assented
to, its application will not be very difficult. For when men have admitted
as a general rule, that the current interpretations of scriptural expressions
respecting natural objects and events may possibly require, and in some
cases certainly will require, to be abandoned, and new ones admitted,
they will hardly allow themselves to contend for such interpretations as
if they were essential parts of revelation; and will look upon the change
of exposition, whether it come sooner or later, without alarm or anger.
And when men lend themselves to the progress of truth in this spirit, it is
not of any material importance at what period a new and satisfactory
interpretation of the scriptural difficulty is found; since a scientific
exactness in our apprehension of the meaning of such passages as are
now referred to is very far from being essential to our full acceptance of
revelation.

10. In what Spirit should the Change be accepted?—Still these

revolutions in scriptural interpretation must always have in them
something which distresses and disturbs religious communities. And
such uneasy feelings will take a different shape, according as the
community acknowledges or rejects a paramount interpretative authority
in its religious leaders. In the case in which the interpretation of the
Church is binding upon all its members, the more placid minds rest in
peace upon the ancient exposition, till the spiritual authorities announce
that the time for the adoption of a new view has arrived; but in these
circumstances, the more stirring and inquisitive minds, which cannot
refrain from the pursuit of new truths 308 and exact conceptions, are led
to opinions which, being contrary to those of the Church, are held to be
sinful. On the other hand, if the religious constitution of the community
allow and encourage each man to study and interpret for himself the
Sacred Writings, we are met by evils of another kind. In this case,
although, by the unforced influence of admired commentators, there may
prevail a general agreement in the usual interpretation of difficult
passages, yet as each reader of the Scripture looks upon the sense which
he has adopted as being his own interpretation, he maintains it, not with
the tranquil acquiescence of one who has deposited his judgment in the
hands of his Church, but with the keenness and strenuousness of self-
love. In such a state of things, though no judicial severities can be
employed against the innovators, there may arise more angry
controversies than in the other case.

It is impossible to overlook the lesson which here offers itself, that it is

in the highest degree unwise in the friends of religion, whether
individuals or communities, unnecessarily to embark their credit in
expositions of Scripture on matters which appertain to natural Science.
By delivering physical doctrines as the teaching of revelation, religion
may lose much, but cannot gain anything. This maxim of practical
wisdom has often been urged by Christian writers. Thus St. Augustine
says 22 : ‘In obscure matters and things far removed from our senses, if we
read anything, even in the divine Scripture, which may produce diverse
opinions without damaging the faith which we cherish, let us not rush
headlong by positive assertion to either the one opinion or the other; lest,
when a more thorough discussion has shown the opinion which we had
adopted to be false, our faith may fall with it: and we should be found
contending, not for the doctrine of the sacred Scriptures, but for our own;
endeavouring to make our doctrine to be that of the Scriptures, instead of
taking the doctrine of the Scriptures to be ours.’ And in nearly the same
spirit, at the 309 time of the Copernican controversy, it was thought
proper to append to the work of Copernicus a postil, to say that the work
was written to account for the phenomena, and that people must not run
on blindly and condemn either of the opposite opinions. Even when the
Inquisition, in 1616, thought itself compelled to pronounce a decision
upon this subject, the verdict was delivered in very moderate language;
—that ‘the doctrine of the earth’s motion appeared to be contrary to
Scripture:’ and yet, moderate as this expression is, it has been blamed by
judicious members of the Roman church as deciding a point such as
religious authorities ought not to pretend to decide; and has brought upon
that church no ordinary weight of general condemnation. Kepler pointed
out, in his lively manner, the imprudence of employing the force of
religious authorities on such subjects: Acies dolabræ in ferrum illisa,
postea nec in lignum valet amplius. Capiat hoc cujus interest. ‘If you
will try to chop iron, the axe becomes unable to cut even wood. I warn
those whom it concerns.’
22
Lib. i. de Genesi, cap. xviii.

11. In what Spirit should the Change be urged?—But while we thus

endeavour to show in what manner the interpreters of Scripture may
most safely and most properly accept the discoveries of science, we must
not forget that there may be errours committed on the other side also; and
that men of science, in bringing forward views which may for a time
disturb the minds of lovers of Scripture, should consider themselves as
bound by strict rules of candour, moderation, and prudence. Intentionally
to make their supposed discoveries a means of discrediting,
contradicting, or slighting the sacred Scriptures, or the authority of
religion, is in them unpardonable. As men who make the science of
Truth the business of their lives, and are persuaded of her genuine
superiority, and certain of her ultimate triumph, they are peculiarly
bound to urge her claims in a calm and temperate spirit; not forgetting
that there are other kinds of truth besides that which they peculiarly
study. They may properly reject authority in matters of science; but they
are to leave 310 it its proper office in matters of religion. I may here again
quote Kepler’s expressions: ‘In Theology we balance authorities, in
Philosophy we weigh reasons. A holy man was Lactantius who denied
that the earth was round; a holy man was Augustine, who granted the
rotundity, but denied the antipodes; a holy thing to me is the Inquisition,
which allows the smallness of the earth, but denies its motion; but more
holy to me is Truth; and hence I prove, from philosophy, that the earth is
round, and inhabited on every side, of small size, and in motion among
the stars,—and this I do with no disrespect to the Doctors.’ I the more
willingly quote such a passage from Kepler, because the entire
ingenuousness and sincere piety of his character does not allow us to
suspect him in anything of hypocrisy or latent irony. That similar
professions of respect may be made ironically, we have a noted example
in the celebrated Introduction to Galileo’s Dialogue on the Copernican
System; probably the part which was most offensive to the authorities.
‘Some years ago,’ he begins, ‘a wholesome edict was promulgated at
Rome, which, in order to check the perilous scandals of the present age,
imposed silence upon the Pythagorean opinion of the mobility of the
earth. There were not wanting,’ he proceeds, ‘persons who rashly
asserted that this decree was the result, not of a judicious inquiry, but of
passion ill-informed; and complaints were heard that councillors, utterly
unacquainted with astronomical observation, ought not to be allowed,
with their sudden prohibitions, to clip the wings of speculative intellects.
At the hearing of rash lamentations like these, my zeal could not keep
silence.’ And he then goes on to say, that he wishes, in his Dialogue, to
show that the subject had been fully examined at Rome. Here the irony is
quite transparent, and the sarcasm glaringly obvious. I think we may
venture to say that this is not the temper in which scientific questions
should be treated; although by some, perhaps, the prohibition of public
discussion may be considered as justifying any evasion which is likely to
pass unpunished. 311

12. Duty of Mutual Forbearance.—We may add, as a further reason

for mutual forbearance in such cases, that the true interests of both
parties are the same. The man of science is concerned, no less than any
other person, in the truth and import of the divine dispensation; the
religious man, no less than the man of science, is, by the nature of his
intellect, incapable of believing two contradictory declarations. Hence
they have both alike a need for understanding the Scripture in some way
in which it shall be consistent with their understanding of nature. It is for
their common advantage to conciliate, as Kepler says, the finger and the
tongue of God, his works and his word. And they may find abundant
reason to bear with each other, even if they should adopt for this purpose
different interpretations, each finding one satisfactory to himself; or if
any one should decline employing his thoughts on such subjects at all. I
have elsewhere 23 quoted a passage from Kepler 24 which appears to me
written in a most suitable spirit: ‘I beseech my reader that, not unmindful
of the divine goodness bestowed upon man, he do with me praise and
celebrate the wisdom of the Creator, which I open to him from a more
inward explication of the form of the world, from a searching of causes,
from a detection of the errours of vision; and that thus not only in the
firmness and stability of the earth may we perceive with gratitude the
preservation of all living things in nature as the gift of God: but also that
in its motion, so recondite, so admirable, we may acknowledge the
wisdom of the Creator. But whoever is too dull to receive this science, or
too weak to believe the Copernican system without harm to his piety,