Annals of Nuclear Energy: Gopika Vinod, Pavan K. Sharma, T.V. Santosh, M. Hari Prasad, K.K. Vaze
Annals of Nuclear Energy: Gopika Vinod, Pavan K. Sharma, T.V. Santosh, M. Hari Prasad, K.K. Vaze
New approach for risk based inspection of H2S based Process Plants
Gopika Vinod ⇑, Pavan K. Sharma, T.V. Santosh, M. Hari Prasad, K.K. Vaze
Reactor Safety Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 400 085, India
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: Recent trend in risk informed and risk based approaches in life management issues have certainly put the
Received 29 January 2013 focus on developing estimation methods for real risk. Idea of employing risk as an optimising measure for
Received in revised form 30 July 2013 in-service inspection, termed as risk based inspection, was accepted in principle from late 80s. While
Accepted 27 August 2013
applying risk based inspection, consequence of failure from each component needs to be assessed. Con-
Available online 21 December 2013
sequence evaluation in a Process Plant is a crucial task. It may be noted that, in general, the number of
components to be considered for life management is very large and hence the consequence evaluation
Keywords:
resulting from their failures (individually) is a laborious task. Screening of critical components is usually
Hydrogen sulphide
Risk-based inspection
carried out using simplified qualitative approach, which primarily uses influence factors for categorisa-
Risk matrix tion. This necessitates logical formulation of influence factors and their ranges with a suitable technical
Consequence analysis basis for acceptance from regulators. This paper describes application of risk based inspection for H2S
based Process Plant along with the approach devised for handling the influence factor related to the
quantity of H2S released.
Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
0306-4549/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.anucene.2013.08.042
14 G. Vinod et al. / Annals of Nuclear Energy 66 (2014) 13–19
RBI looks into each and every component in a plant for categorisa- data. The general form of Baye’s theorem is written as (Siu and
tion, qualitative approach is an important step for screening out Kelly, 1998):
non-critical components. While applying risk based inspection
using qualitative approach of API 581 for H2S based Process Plant, LðE=ki Þf ðki Þ
certain limitations were observed in consequence estimation. This
f ðki j EÞ ¼ X ð1Þ
LðE=ki Þf ðki Þ
paper describes the experience on applying risk based inspection i
on H2S based Process Plant and approach adopted to circumvent
the shortcoming. where f(ki|E) is the probability of ki, given evidence E, (posterior dis-
tribution); f(ki) the probability of ki, prior to having evidence E,
2. Risk based inspection in H2S based Process Plant (prior distribution); L(E|ki) is the probability of the evidence E, given
ki, (likelihood function).
Risk is defined as ‘‘the likelihood of a specified undesirable Likelihood function denotes the plant operating experience and
event occurring within a specified period or in specified prior denotes the generic data base. Typically, Log normal distribu-
circumstances.’’ tion is considered for generic data and Poisson distribution is con-
sidered for likelihood function. Using these techniques, PoF of
X
Risk ¼ likelihood of undesirable event its consequence equipments were estimated.
accident scenario
(ii) Remaining life model for pipelines.
For applying the framework of risk based inspection, it is re- Corrosion being a predominant degradation mechanism in H2S
quired to estimate likelihood of failure of components in Process based Process Plant, ANSI/ASME B31G model (Caleyo et al., 2000;
Plant and their consequence, in terms of damage to the equipment Santosh et al., 2006), has been used to estimate the remaining
and impact of toxic release to public. strength of pipeline containing corrosion defects. All the failure
RBI uses the risk to plan, justify and aid in the assessments of pressure models are concerned with the estimation of remaining
results from inspection, testing and monitoring. RBI is the process strength but not the failure probability of pipelines containing cor-
of identifying and quantifying the consequences and the probabil- rosion defects. For this purpose, reliability analyses were required
ity of failures. The method applies both qualitative and quantita- to assess the remaining life of corroded pipelines with further cor-
tive approaches to prioritizing first analysis efforts and then rosion growth. First Order Reliability Method (FORM) has been
inspection activities. The primary difference between the qualita- used for reliability analysis of pipelines. The main assumption of
tive and quantitative approach is the level of resolution. The qual- the reliability analyses for the corroded pipelines is the random-
itative procedure requires less detailed information about the ness of the load and resistance parameters determining the limit
facility and as a result, its ability to discriminate is much more lim- state function (LSF). The LSF or performance function is defined
ited. The qualitative technique would normally be used to screen for this mode of failure as the difference between the pipeline fail-
components for detailed quantitative RBI studies. API 581 provides ure pressure Pfp and the pipeline operating pressure Pop, i.e.
influence factors in quantifying likelihood and consequence in qual-
itative approach. Typically, expert judgment is used in selecting LSFðPfp ; Pop Þ ¼ Pfp Pop ð2Þ
the values of influence factors for various ranges.
In this study, semi-qualitative approach is followed, wherein In this study, the modified B31G model is employed to estimate
likelihood is ranked using the quantitative (assessed using quanti- the pipeline failure pressure.
fied from operating experience data and structural reliability tech-
!
niques) and consequence is ranked using the qualitative (influence ðd þR ðTT ÞÞ
2ðY s þ 68:95Þt 1 0 dt 0
factor approach). LSFðPfp ; Pop Þ ¼ Pop ð3Þ
D 1 ðd0 þRðtMÞ
d ðTT 0 ÞÞ
2.1. Estimation of likelihood of failure of components The folias factor, M is dependent on defect length, L, pipe diam-
eter, D and pipe wall thickness, t. Pop is the operating pressure. Rd is
In this study, estimation of likelihood of failure of components the radial corrosion rate T0 is the time of last inspection. Ts is the
was carried out using two approaches: pipeline elapsed time Ys is the yield strength of the pipe material.
Various parameters for failure pressure model were also fixed
(i) Statistical modelling for equipments such as towers, heat based on research studies and analysis. These factors were dis-
exchangers, etc. cussed in detail before finalisation. Details of this model can be
found from (Caleyo et al., 2000; Santosh et al., 2006).
Estimation of failure probability of equipment (PoF) is an Categorisation of failure probabilities with respect to level of
important step. Eventhough use of generic information is sug- severity is required for applying RBI. Typical categorisation framed
gested at the design stage, due to the absence of instances of failure for all type of components is shown in Table 1, based on consensus
in operating period, it is used for estimating failure probability of of expert from regulator, utility and analysts’ end.
piping equipment in operating plants. Data bases such as OREDA
(2002) are the result of various collaborative efforts taken towards
methodical collection of operating experience information, which
can be termed as generic data base. Service Data Analysis based Table 1
Probability of failure categories.
on operating experience is one of the popularly employed methods
used for this purpose. Probability of failure (PoF) value Category
When sufficient operating experience is available, these generic 1e4 to 1.0 5 Very high
estimates can be updated with the plant experience to arrive at 1e5 to 1e4 4 High
plant specific estimates for equipment failure probability. To up- 1e6 to 1e5 3 Medium
1e8 to 1e6 2 Low
date the generic information with plant experience, Baye’s theo-
<1e8 1 Very low
rem is used, which facilitates integrating different sources of
G. Vinod et al. / Annals of Nuclear Energy 66 (2014) 13–19 15
2.2. Estimation of consequence of components After determining the PoF and CoF category, it needs to be ap-
plied to Risk matrix to establish the inspection category.
For estimation of consequences from a Process Plant, qualitative
approach based influence factors from API 581 serve as the most 2.3. Limitation in applying the current approach
suitable option. Influence factors considered account for the prop-
erties related to chemicals (toxicity, flammability, etc.), detection The categorisation for quantity factor specified in API 581 (for
systems installed in the plant site, isolating systems provided to both Damage Consequence Factor and Health Consequence Factor)
mitigate accident situation, damage potential and health effects. is a general one to suit the needs of all type of industries. Since the
In a H2S based Process Plant, due to the highly toxic and inflamma- total inventory of H2S handled in the Process Plant falls in the low-
ble nature of H2S, consequence in terms of damage and toxic needs est category as per API 581, the criterion was not suitable for
to be assessed. applying to the plant under consideration. Moreover, API 581 does
Table 2 and 3 present the various factors used except quantity not have any influence factor accounting for the height of release,
factor, the values chosen and the technical basis for the choice which plays a crucial role in dispersion. A need was felt to give a
for damage as well as toxic consequence, as suggested in (API different treatment to ground level and stack level releases. This
581, 1998). directs us to redefine the quantity factor to suit the scenario exist-
ing in the plant under consideration.
Damage Consequence Factor ¼ Chemical þ Quantity þ State
þ Escalation þ Credit 3. New approach for scaling the quantity factor
Damage A B C D E
Health
C E Very high
D High
D C Medium
B Low
E A Very low
3.5. Associate the probit numbers with quantity factors in API 581
Table 5
Evaluation of probit parameters from results obtained from CFD calculations.
Case Conc in ppm (C) Time in min (T) CnT Probit value Fatality (%)
Ground release
75 kg 2.40E+01 1.47E+00 4.13E+03 1.65E+01 9.54E60
150 kg 1.86E+02 8.67E01 4.09E+05 5.63E+00 1.46E14
250 kg 2.98E+02 9.00E01 1.38E+06 2.75E+00 1.24E07
750 kg 7.76E+02 9.67E01 1.62E+07 3.08E+00 6.98E+00
1000 kg 9.46E+02 1.02E+00 2.80E+07 4.37E+00 3.14E+01
1500 kg 1.24E+03 1.08E+00 5.84E+07 6.11E+00 8.04E+01
1700 kg 1.32E+03 1.12E+00 7.13E+07 6.58E+00 8.88E+01
Stack release
0.12 MT 6.60E02 4.50E01 5.03E04 5.42E+01 0.00E+00
5 MT 4.38E+00 1.82E+01 7.29E+02 2.06E+01 1.17E84
10 MT 1.69E+02 2.83E+01 1.05E+07 2.05E+00 1.16E+00
15 MT 2.59E+02 3.33E+01 3.60E+07 4.97E+00 4.90E+01
20 MT 4.51E+02 2.83E+01 1.22E+08 7.86E+00 9.86E+01
Table 6
Modified the quantity factor of damage consequence category.
Material released (ground level) Material released (stack level) Quantity factor Probit (10 point scale)
<795 kg <5 MT 15 10
796–924 kg 5–7 MT 20 20
925–1010 kg 7–9 MT 25 30
1011–1070 kg 9–11 MT 28 40
1071–1140 kg 11–13 MT 31 50
1141–1220 kg 13–15 MT 34 60
1221–1330 kg 15–17 MT 39 70
1331–1510 kg 17–18.5 MT 41 80
1511–1760 kg 18.5–20 MT 45 90
>1760 kg >20 MT 50 100
Risk Matrix
Table 7
Results of the pilot study on RBI of Process Plant.
Items Number of items Consequence categorya Failure probability category Risk Current ISI
15 yr 25 yr 15 yr 25 yr
Process HX 4 Nos M VH VH M M H
Coolers, chillers steam heater 5 Nos M VH VH M M H
Gas lines 6 Nos H M H M H 4H 2M
Liquid lines 30 Nos 2H 4H 27 VH 28M 1H 10H
28M 24M 1H 2L 29M 20M
2L 2M
a
VH – Very High; H – High; M – Medium; L – Low.
Towers, nine Heat Exchangers, 1 Booster (Compressor) apart from method of inspection. Risk based inspection has provided a quan-
many other components such as valves, flange and instruments. titative basis for framing the inspection programme for compo-
Pipe Line inventory in the system is about 1100 kg gas and nents as well as plants. The approach proposed in the paper
55,000 kg liquid. RBI was applied based on the approach described tailors the qualitative approach prescribed in API 581 to be used
in Fig. 9. in any type of Process Plant. The paper introduces a basis for mod-
Each component is assigned an inspection category, which els used in simplified approaches, which is required to improve the
specifies the severity of inspection to be employed in it. Risk cate- acceptability of risk based inspection, by plant personnel as well as
gory has been estimated for 15 and 25 years and the results of this regulators.
analysis are presented in Table 7. In Table 7, the term (for example)
4H indicates that four components are falling in the High category. References
Risk impact analysis has been brought out by comparing with the
existing inspection plans (Kevin et al., 2010). API 581, 1998. API Base Resource Documentation—Risk-Based Inspection, American
Petroleum Institute.
Current inspection plan puts almost 50% of its equipments con- ASME CRTD – Vol. 41, 2003. Risk-based Methods for Equipment Life Management:
sidered in pilot studies in high category. But RBI puts on 4% of An Application Handbook, ISBN 0791835073, ASME International, New York.
equipments in high category at the end of 15 years and 20% of CWA 15740, 2008. Risk Based Inspection and Maintenance Procedures for European
Industry, CEN Workshop Agreement, April 2008.
equipments in high category at the end of 25 years. It has been OREDA, 2002. Offshore Reliability Data base.
found that large quantum of 48 inspection is reduced by placing Siu, Nathan O., Kelly, Dana L., 1998. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic
the equipments in inspection category based on RBI methodology. risk assessment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 62, 89–116.
Caleyo, F., Gonzalez, J.L., Hallen, J.M., 2000. A study on the reliability assessment
methodology for pipelines with active corrosion defects. International Journal
6. Conclusion of Pressure Vessels and Piping 79, 77–86.
Santosh, Vinod, Gopika, Shrivastava, O.P., Saraf, R.K., Ghosh, A.K., Kushwaha, H.S.,
2006. Reliability analysis of pipelines carrying H2S for risk based inspection of
The objective of this study is to optimise the ISI by classifying heavy water plants. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91, 163–170.
various components in different inspection categories based on Kevin, McGrattan, Randall, McDermott, Simo, Hostikka, Jason, Floyd, 2010. Fire
consequence and failure probability. There are lot of uncertainties dynamics simulator (Version 5), user’s guide NIST special publication 1019-5.
In: Cooperation with: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland National
in estimation of piping failure frequency as well as in consequence Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, Maryland.
estimation. Since risk based inspection mainly looks into the rank- Kevin, McGrattan, Simo, Hostikka, Jason, Floyd, Howard, Baum, Ronald, Rehm, 2007.
ing for inspection planning, certain amount of inaccuracies in these Fire dynamics simulator (Version 5) volume-3, verification, technical reference
guide NIST special publication 1018-5. In: cooperation with: VTT Technical
estimates can be tolerated. Research Centre of Finland National Institute of Standards and Technology,
Risk based inspection methodology has demonstrated substan- Gaithersburg, Maryland.
tial reduction in inspection. It should be noted that risk to the plant Sharma, Pavan K., Markandeya, S.G., Ghosh, A.K., Kushwaha, H.S., 2004. Approaches
for Modelling of Dispersion of Pollutants in Atmosphere with Emphasis on
has not increased by reducing these inspection, since the high Computational Fluid Dynamics. NEHU, Shillong.
safety significant components are still following the higher fre- Tweeddale, Mark, 2003. Managing Risk and Reliability of Process Plants. Gulf
quency of inspection. Risk based inspection has organized the cat- Professional Publishing, ISBN:0-7506-7734-1.
egory of inspection for each component thereby changing its