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3.1.3.7 Lab - Using Excel To Forecast

This document provides instructions for using Excel to forecast grades based on historical data. Students will input a series of weekly grades and dates, then use Excel's forecasting tool or formulas to predict grades for upcoming weeks. The tool generates a predicted grade along with a confidence range, showing the scope of likely grades based on the input data. Changing the confidence level from 95% to 98% shrinks the forecast range, indicating less certainty in the predictions. Forecasting is useful for big data applications where managers need instant insights to make timely decisions.

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217 views

3.1.3.7 Lab - Using Excel To Forecast

This document provides instructions for using Excel to forecast grades based on historical data. Students will input a series of weekly grades and dates, then use Excel's forecasting tool or formulas to predict grades for upcoming weeks. The tool generates a predicted grade along with a confidence range, showing the scope of likely grades based on the input data. Changing the confidence level from 95% to 98% shrinks the forecast range, indicating less certainty in the predictions. Forecasting is useful for big data applications where managers need instant insights to make timely decisions.

Uploaded by

bits rmit
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lab – Using Excel to Forecast

Objectives
 Input Data into a spreadsheet
 Execute a Data Forecast

Background / Scenario
Forecasting is a way of predicting values in the future based on data. Managers wants data instantly in order to
make decisions and they rely on techniques such as forecasting to make those decisions. With big data, volumes
of data is produced instantaneously. This presents a challenge to collect and process this data in real time.
This lab is very basic and is designed to just show you how forecasting is performed in Microsoft Excel. You will
be inputting a set of weekly grades and using the forecast feature to see what grades are predicted for the next
few weeks.
Note: The Forecast menu option is available in the 2016 version of Excel. If you do not have this version, the
formula is provided. You might do better copying the formula from the lab than inputting it.
Note: If you do not have the Forecast icon available in the Data menu option, but have the 2016 version of Excel,
select the File menu option > Options > Add-Ins > Go > enable the checkbox beside Analysis ToolPak > OK. If
you return to the File > Options > Add-Ins window, you should see the Analysis ToolPak in the top section
where the active add-ins list.

Required Resources
 Microsoft Excel with the Analysis ToolPak option installed or ability to enable as an Add-In

Step 1: Input the Data


In this part, you will input grades and dates into specific Microsoft Excel cells.
a. Open Microsoft Excel.
b. In the A1 cell, type Date.
c. In the B1 cell, type Grade.
d. In the C1 cell, type Forecast.
e. In the D1 cell, type Lower Confidence Boundary.
f. In the E1 cell, type Upper Confidence Boundary.
g. Starting with the A2 cell, type the following dates in the A2 through A11 cells:
1/8/2018, 1/15/2018, 1/22/2018, 1/29/2018, 2/5/2018, 2/12/2018, 2/19/2018, 2/26/2018, 3/5/2018, 3/12/2018,
3/19/2018, 3/26/2018, 4/2/2018, 4/9/2018
Note: If you get pound signs (###) in your cell, click, hold down, and drag the line to the right of the dates to
make the A column bigger or you can right-click the A that is above the word “Date,” select Column width,
type 10, and click OK.
h. Starting with the B2 cell, type the following grades in the B2 through B11 cells:
100, 90, 75, 80, 50, 95, 85, 100, 80, 75

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Lab – Using Excel to Forecast

Step 2: Execute a Data Forecast


In this part, you will use Excel to forecast what your grades will be for the remaining weeks. Remember that this
forecast is based on what the grades you have already made.
a. Use the forecast sheet function. Click and hold to select cells A1 through B11 (all of the data where there is
data in both the A and B columns).
Note: If you do not have the 2016 version of Excel, skip to Step 2g.
b. Select the Data menu option > Forecast Sheet.
Note: If you do not have the Forecast icon available in the Data menu option, but have the 2016 version of
Excel, select the File menu option -> Options -> Excel Add-Ins -> Go -> enable the checkbox beside
Analysis ToolPak > OK. If you return to the File > Options > Add-Ins window, you should see the Analysis
ToolPak in the top section where the active add-ins list.
c. In the Forecast End calendar window, select 4/9/2018 as the end date.
d. Expand the Options area by clicking once on the arrow beside the word “Options.” Notice that you can adjust
the confidence interval (the upper and lower limits of what Excel predicts you will score in the next few
weeks).
e. Click the Create button. The window and graph shown should be similar to what is shown. Note that the
graph was moved below the data just to capture the screen.

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Lab – Using Excel to Forecast

f. Notice that Excel predicts that you will make 80.39 on March 19th, but is 95% confident that it really will be a
score somewhere between 47.54 and 113.23.
What score is predicted for April 2nd? _____
Within what range of scores is Excel 95% confident that you will make on April 9 th? _________________
g. If you do not have the 2016 version of Excel or if you just like using a formula instead of the using the menu,
you can input a formula and get the same numbers.
In C12 enter the following formula:
=FORECAST.ETS(A12,$B$2:$B$11,$A$2:$A$11,1,1)
In D12, enter the following formula:
=C12-FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A12,$B$2:B$11,$A$2:$A$11,0.95,1,1)
In E12, enter the following formula:
=C12+FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A12,$B$2:B$11,$A$2:$A$11,0.95,1,1)

Part 2: Modify the data.


a. Change the data to grades that are more reflective of your own grades.
b. Change the confidence level to 98%.
How did changing the confidence level from 95% to 98% affect the forecast range of grades?
_______________________
List three examples of where you think forecasting would be used in big data.
____________________________________________________________________________________

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