SGPE Lecture2
SGPE Lecture2
Jan Grobovšek
University of Edinburgh
Fall 2023
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Motivation
The Solow model is a good simple tool to organise thoughts and use
for empirical predictions.
However, it is very light on theory because the crucial actor (i.e. the
representative household) does not optimise anything.
The neoclassical growth model (alternatively called the
Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model) introduces intertemporal household
optimisation.
At first sight, its predictions about growth and development will not
markedly differ from those of the Solow model.
The benefit (which needs to traded-off against the additional degree
of analytical and computational complexity) is that the model is a
launching pad for almost all modern macro models with an infinite
time horizon.
Also, any proper theory of growth and development should have at its
heart incentives, in particular those related to investment activities.
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Roadmap
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Law of motion
K (t + 1) = (1 − δ )K (t ) + I (t ) (1)
The economy starts off with some initial capital, i.e. K (0) = K0 > 0.
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Production
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Market clearing
Again, the same clearing conditions apply as in the Solow model from
the first lecture.
The market clearing conditions are:
Financial markets. Household demand assets B from some
(unspecified) financial intermediary that backs assets by the supply of
physical capital. That supply must equal demand for capital by the
representative firm, hence:
K (t ) = B (t ). (3)
L(t ) = L. (4)
Product market:
C (t ) + I (t ) = Y (t ). (5)
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Firm’s problem
Note: R (t ) is the gross rate that the firm pays. Since a fraction δ of capital
depreciates, the net rate received by households is defined as
r (t ) = R (t ) − δ. (8)
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Household
′
2 Inada condition: lim
C →0 u (C ) = ∞;
B (t + 1) ≤ (1 + r (t ))B (t ) + w (t )L − C (t ) (10)
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No-Ponzi condition
Condition: !
t −1
1
lim B (t ) ∏ ≥ 0.
t →∞
s =1 1 + r (s )
This requires that the household does not “die” with a negative
discounted present value of assets (financial markets would not let
that happen).
Here, time runs to infinity, but the same principle applies.
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Lagrangian
Let λ(t ) be the Lagrange multiplier associated with the budget
constraint (10).
The Lagrangian is therefore
∞
(
L= max
{C (t ),B (t +1),λ(t )}t∞=0
∑ βt u (C (t ))
t =0
∞
)
+ ∑ λ(t ) [(1 + r (t ))B (t ) + w (t )L − C (t ) − B (t + 1)]
t =0
βt u ′ (C (t )) − λ(t ) = 0; (12)
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Transversality condition
The TVC ensures that the present discounted value of assets beyond
the planning horizon is 0.
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which is equivalent to
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Household optimality conditions
Our next goal is to characterise the optimality conditions.
Ideally, this is done with only the observed (original) variables, rather
than using multipliers λ.
Replacing λ in (13) by (12) for t and t + 1 yields
λ(t ) = λ(t + 1)(1 + r (t + 1)) ⇔
βt u ′ (C (t )) = βt +1 u ′ (C (t + 1))(1 + r (t + 1)) ⇔
u ′ (C (t ))
= β(1 + r (t + 1)). (17)
u ′ (C (t + 1))
This series of equations, ∀t ≥ 0, is the canonical Euler condition of
intertemporal substitution. It’s quite possibly the most important
equation in macroeconomics.
Another characterising equation is the budget constraint (10), that
optimally holds with equality:
B (t + 1) = (1 + r (t ))B (t ) + w (t )L − C (t )
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Household optimality conditions (cont’d)
This proves that the transversality condition implies that the no-Ponzi
condition must hold with equality. Why? Well, agents do not want to
die with a positive present value of assets.
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Characterisation of equilibrium
⇒ Obtains Y (t ), ∀t ≥ 0
3 Household: the Euler condition (17) and the budget constraint (10),
∀t ≥ 0, as well as the transversality condition (18);
⇒ Obtains B (t ), ∀t ≥ 0, and C (t ), ∀t ≥ 0, while the TVC puts a boundary on B (∞)
4 The law of motion of capital (1), ∀t ≥ 0, with the initial capital stock
K ( 0 ) = K0 ;
⇒ Obtains K (t ), ∀t ≥ 0
5 Definition (8), ∀t ≥ 0;
⇒ Obtains r (t ), ∀t ≥ 0
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Note on market clearing
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Implications
Consider the Euler condition, the only real behavioural condition of
the system.
u ′ (C (t ))
= β(1 + r (t + 1)).
u ′ (C (t + 1))
Since u ′ (c ) is decreasing in C , this implies that:
> C (t ) if β(1 + r (t + 1)) > 1,
C (t + 1) < C (t ) if β(1 + r (t + 1)) < 1,
= C (t ) if β(1 + r (t + 1)) = 1.
This economy also converges to a steady state, i.e. where all variables
become independent of time.
There are now two equations that must satisfy the steady state,
namely C (t ) = C (t + 1) = C ⋆ in (19) and K (t ) = K (t + 1) = K ⋆
in (20). The first one gives
C ⋆ = F (K ⋆ ) − δK ⋆ .
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GDP growth
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Optimal growth
The reason for this is that markets here are competitive and complete
(completeness implies that goods, in particular all time-index goods,
can be freely traded), and preferences are locally non-satiated.
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Steady state comparative statics
1 − β (1 − δ )
FK′ (K ⋆ ) = . (22)
β
Contrast this to the Solow model where the savings rate is an exogenous
parameter.
An alternative formulation of s ⋆ is the following:
K⋆ K⋆ δβ
s⋆ = δ ⋆ = δ ′ ⋆ ⋆ = xK ( K ⋆
)
Y (K ) F (K )K 1 − β (1 − δ )
xK ( K ⋆ )
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What did we learn? (cont’d)
As for the dynamics outside (but close to) the steady state, the
neoclassical growth model is more useful in studying business cycles
rather than economic growth.
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Solving the neoclassical growth model
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V is a function of B (0) because that is the only variable that determines the
initial conditions (in particular B (0) itself as well as r (0) and w (0) via
B (0) = K (0)).
That function can be rewritten as follows.
∞
V (B (0)) = u (Ĉ (0)) + ∑ βt u (Ĉ (t ))
t =1
∞
= u (Ĉ (0)) + β ∑ βt u (Ĉ (t + 1)).
t =0
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Towards a recursive formulation (cont’d)
Consider the meaning of the term ∑t∞=0 βt u (Ĉ (t + 1)). It represents the maximum
present discounted utility of the household, starting off with B (1), and in fact not
any B (1), but the optimal one chosen at 0, i.e. B̂ (1).
Notice that an agent born in period 1 with B (1) = B̂ (1) would make exactly the
same choices for t ≥ 1 as our original agent.
The resulting value is the maximum possible one, and thus
∑t∞=0 βt u (Ĉ (t + 1)) = V (B̂ (1)). We can hence write
V (B (0)) = u (Ĉ (0)) + βV (B̂ (1)).
So far we have determined a recursive structure, but there are no choices to be
made because the objects in the above line are expressions evaluated at optimum
choices. To introduce choices, we can write:
V (B (0)) = max {u (C (0)) + βV (B (1))} ,
C ,B (1)
subject to some constraints.
Finally, notice that what holds between 0 and 1 equally holds between any other
time periods, so we simply have
V (B ) = max′ u (C ) + βV (B ′ ) ,
C ,B
V (B ) = max′ u (C ) + βV (B ′ )
(23)
C ,B
subject to
B ′ = (1 + r )B + wL − C .
This works because we know that B is the only state variable of the
system and thus captures all the relevant period information (in
particular, in equilibrium w and r are only functions of K = B). E.g.,
if there was an additional state variable X we would write V (B, X ).
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Household optimality conditions
uC ( C )
′
= β (1 + r ′ ) (24)
uC ′ ( C )
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Law of motion
K̇ (t ) = I (t ) − δK (t ), (25)
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Production
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F.O.C. w.r.t. L:
FL′ (K (t ), A(t )L(t )) = w (t ). (32)
Definition of net rate of return
r (t ) = R (t ) − δ (33)
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Household’s preferences
This is slightly different from the previous model, both because time
is continuous and because there is population growth.
Remember that c (t ) ≡ C (t )/L(t ).
The household’s period utility is defined in per capita terms, where
u (·) is assumed to have identical properties as before (strict concavity
and Inada condition).
The household is assumed to discount time at the subjective rate
ρ > 0, but is fully altruistic towards future generations, so that the
effective discount rate is ρ − n.
In order to ensure discounting we assume that ρ − n > 0. In fact,
when technological growth is strictly positive (g > 0), and depending
on certain properties of u we may need to assume, in addition, that
ρ − n > g × factor where factor will be discussed shortly.
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Household’s budget constraint
The budget constraint in continuous time is:
Ḃ (t ) = r (t )B (t ) + w (t )L(t ) − c (t )L(t ).
ḃ (t ) = [r (t ) − n ]b (t ) + w (t ) − c (t ). (35)
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H(
b t, b, c, µ) = u (c (t )) + µ(t ){w (t ) + [r (t ) − n ]b (t ) − c (t )} (38)
where
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Recipe for first order conditions using current Hamiltonians
The derivative of H
b w.r.t. the control variable (here c) must equal 0.
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b c (t, b, c, µ) = 0 ⇔ u ′ (c (t )) − µ(t ) = 0.
H (39)
The derivative of H
b w.r.t. b equals −µ̇(t ) + (ρ − n )µ(t ):
H
b b (t, b, c, µ) = −µ̇(t ) + (ρ − n )µ(t )
(40)
⇔µ(t )[r (t ) − n] = −µ̇(t ) + (ρ − n)µ(t ).
H
b µ (t, b, c, µ) = ḃ (t ) ⇔ w (t ) + [r (t ) − n ]b (t ) − c (t ) = ḃ (t ). (41)
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Optimality conditions
We would like to characterise optimality in terms of the original variables
only (i.e. without costate variables). Equation (40) features µ and µ̇ that
we would like to replace.
We have µ from (39). To obtain µ̇ as well, just derive (39) with respect to
t: u ′′ (c (t ))ċ (t ) = µ̇(t ).
Now take (40), which is just µ(t )[r (t ) − ρ] = −µ̇(t ) and replace µ̇(t ) from
above and µ(t ) from (39) to obtain
u ′ (c (t ))[r (t ) − ρ] = −u ′′ (c (t ))ċ (t )
ċ (t ) 1
= [r (t ) − ρ ] (43)
c (t ) ε(c (t ))
u ′′ (c (t ))c (t )
where ε(c (t )) ≡ − u ′ (c (t ))
.
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Optimality conditions (cont’d)
Notice that we are still carrying around the transversality condition
(42) with the costate variable µ(t ).
We can either replace µ(t ) by u ′ (c (t )) from (39), which is fine.
Or, more conveniently, we can find another expression for µ(t ). Note
from (40) that
µ̇(t )
= −[r (t ) − ρ].
µ (t )
Integrating the above equation yields
Z t
µ(t ) = µ(0) exp − [r (s ) − ρ]ds
0
Replacing the above µ(t ) into the transversality condition (42) now
gives the more useful expression:
Z t
lim b (t ) exp − [r (s ) − n ]ds = 0. (44)
t →∞ 0
where µ(0) = u ′ (c (0)) > 0 drops out. Notice that the no-Ponzi
condition (37) is indeed satisfied, and with equality. 55 / 96
Characterisation of equilibrium
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Balanced growth path
Recall the Kaldor facts that we would like the model to satisfy:
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Implication of BGP
The following must be true on the BGP:
1 Capital grows at the same rate as output (directly from a constant
capital-output ratio);
2 The interest rate is constant, i.e. r (t ) → r ⋆ . Why? For the capital
share R (t )K (t )/Y (t ) to be constant while K and Y grow at the same
rate, R (t ) and hence r (t ) = R (t ) − δ must be constant as well;
3 Consumption grows at the same rate as output. Why? Using the law
of motion of capital (25) and product market clearing (30) gives the
aggregate resource constraint:
K̇ (t ) = I (t ) − δK (t )
⇔K̇ (t ) = Y (t ) − C (t ) − δK (t ).
From here, notice that
K̇ (t ) Y (t ) C (t )
= − −δ
K (t ) K (t ) K (t )
Since at BGP K̇ (t )/K (t ) and Y (t )/K (t ) are constant, C (t )/K (t )
must therefore be constant as well, meaning that C grows at a
constant rate, equal to that of Y and K .
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Utility consistent with BGP
This fact, together with a constant interest rate, implies the following
for our Euler condition (43):
1
gc = (r ⋆ − ρ )
ε(c (t ))
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u ′′ (c (t ))c (t )
This utility yields ε(c (t )) ≡ − u ′ (c (t ))
= θ, by construction it is
always constant.
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Production function consistent with BGP
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We are interested in characterising the growth trajectory along the BGP so let us
assume that the utility is indeed such that ε(c (t )) = ε is constant.
In particular:
ẋ (t )−x (t )g
x̃˙ (t ) x̃˙ (t ) A(t ) ẋ (t )
= = = − g.
x̃ (t ) x (t )/A(t ) x (t )/A(t ) x (t )
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Euler equation in effective units
Replacing the interest rate from (31), the Euler equation (43) is
ċ (t ) 1
= [FK′ (K (t ), A(t )L(t )) − δ − ρ]
c (t ) ε
1
= [f˜′ (k̃ (t )) − δ − ρ].
ε
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K̇ (t ) =F (K (t ), A(t )L(t )) − δK (t ) − C (t )
⇔
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Transversality condition in effective units
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Implications
There are two loci (c̃˙ = 0) and (k̃˙ = 0), and the intersection is the
point where the economy is on the BGP. From (45) and (46) these
are given by
f˜′ (k̃c̃˙ =0 ) = δ + ρ + εg ; (48)
c̃k̃˙ =0 = f˜(k̃k̃˙ =0 ) − (δ + n + g )k̃k̃˙ =0 . (49)
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Implications
The BGP is then the situation where both (48) and (49) coincide.
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Equilibrium path
What value does the control variable (or “jump variable”) c̃ (0) take?
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If c̃ (0) is chosen “too high” the two characterising equations send the
equilibrium to a situation where c̃ (t ) grows at a strictly positive rate while
k̃ (t ) eventually becomes negative.
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Equilibrium path (cont’d)
Conversely, if If c̃ (0) is chosen “too low” k̃ (t ) grows at a strictly positive
rate while c̃ (t ) eventually drops and converges to zero, which is also the
situation where k̃ (t ) reaches its highest possible value k̃max > 0 according
to feasibility from (49): 0 = f˜((k̃max ) − (δ + n + g )k̃max .
It can be shown that that level of limt →∞ k̃ (t ) = k̃max does not satisfiy the
transversality condition, and hence optimality is violated! The TVC is then
Z t
lim k̃max exp −[f˜′ (k̃ (t )) − (δ + n + g )]ds
t →∞ 0
What is new is that ε also tends to lower k̃ ⋆ if and only if g > 0. The
intuition is that in the context of growing technology, a household
that strongly values a smooth consumption stream settles for a
relatively lower saving rate (it knows that production is increasing
exogenously, giving rise to higher possible consumption stream in the
future, and so it cuts back on savings).
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Final note on discounting assumption
Recall that discounting assumes that ρ − n > 0, but that this may
not be sufficient here (rather, we assumed ρ − n > g × factor ).
If we are to reach the BGP, then f˜′ (k̃ ⋆ ) = ρ + δ + εg from (48) and
so it must be that ultimately at the BGP (47) becomes:
Z t
lim k̃ ⋆ exp − [ρ − n − (1 − ε)g ]ds = 0.
t →∞ 0
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What did we learn?
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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References
Dynamic programming:
Acemoglu 6; Ljungqvist and Sargent 3.
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Proof of convergence
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Proof of convergence (cont’d)
We can use the same argument as before with reversed signs to show that C now
would need to be strictly decreasing while K is strictly increasing, namely
C (T + 2) < C (T + 1), K (T + 3) > K (T + 2), etc.
Consumption now converges to 0 while the capital stock grows ever larger. This
violates the transversality condition.
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Proof of monotonicity
Imagine we start out at T (including T = 0) and that K (T ) < K ⋆ .
From the previous we know that K (T + 1) > K (T ). Now we prove that
K (T + 1) ≤ K ⋆ . Suppose by contradiction that K (T + 1) > K ⋆ .
If K (T + 1) > K ⋆ > K (T ), it must be that FK′ (K (T + 1)) < FK′ (K ⋆ ), which
from (19) requires C (T + 1) < C (T ).
Replacing C in (20) this implies
C (T + 1) <C (T ),
F (K (T + 1)) + (1 − δ)K (T + 1) − K (T + 2) <F (K (T )) + (1 − δ)K (T ) − K (T + 1),
K (T + 2) − K (T + 1) > F (K (T + 1))−F (K (T )) + (1 − δ)[K (T + 1) − K (T )].
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Household optimality conditions in recursive form (cont’d)
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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u (F (K ) + (1 − δ)K − K ′ ) + βV (K ′ )]
V (K ) = max
′
(52)
K
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Recipe for value function iteration
1 Create a dense grid of N points K1 < K2 <, ..., < KN (these do not denote time
periods, just a sequence of values ranging from the smallest to the largest possible
K , e.g. 0.01, 0.02, etc.) It makes sense to centre the values around K ⋆ which can
be easily computed.
2 Guess a sequence of values {V0 (Kn′ )}N n=1 associated to each point Kn . For
′
example V0 (Kn ) = 0, ∀n.
3 Now maximize, for each Kn , the value in (52). Obviously, since we guessed
V0 (Kn′ ) = 0, ∀n (i.e. there is no benefit from accumulating K ′ ), the maximized
value for each Kn is K ′ (Kn ) = K1 , i.e. the smallest possible capital level. The
result is a new sequence {V0 (Kn )}N n=1 , but this time around it is increasing in Kn
because utility is increasing in K via F .
4 Set {V1 (Kn′ )}N N
n=1 = {V0 (Kn )}n=1 and repeat the same maximization of (52) with
the new sequence. Now there exists a trade-off between current consumption and
the future value, and we obtain a more reasonable {V1 (Kn )}N n =1 .
5 This is repeated J times until the distance, at each point Kn , between
{VJ (Kn )}N ′ N
n=1 and {VJ (Kn )}n=1 is arbitrarily small. At that point we have found
a solution. The contraction mapping guarantees convergence to that solution.
6 Most importantly, we found policy functions: for each Kn we know the optimal
K ′ (Kn ), and by extension also all other variables such as C (Kn ), Y (Kn ), etc.
Back
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Outline
1 Motivation
2 Basic Neoclassical Growth Model (in Discrete Time)
3 Recursive Representation and Dynamic Programming
4 Neoclassical Growth Model with Population and Technological Growth
(in Continuous Time)
5 Literature
6 Appendix: Convergence and Monotonicity
7 Appendix: Euler Condition of Value Function
8 Appendix: Example of Computational Solution
9 Appendix: From the Lagrangian to the Hamiltonian
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Lagrangian in continuous time
Combining the utility function (34) and the budget constraint (35),
the Lagrangian is
Z ∞
L= exp(−(ρ − n)t )u (c (t ))dt + λ(t ) [r (t ) − n]b (t ) + w (t ) − c (t ) − ḃ (t ) dt
0
+ lim λ(t )b (t )
t →∞
Z ∞
= exp(−(ρ − n)t )u (c (t ))dt + λ(t ) ([r (t ) − n]b (t ) + w (t ) − c (t )) dt
0
Z ∞
− λ(t )ḃ (t )dt + lim λ(t )b (t )
0 t →∞
Current-value Hamiltonian
Analogously, we can construct the current-value Hamiltonian and
show that the optimality conditions remain the same.
Define the current-value Hamiltonian as
H(
b t, b, c, µ) = u (c (t )) + µ(t ) ([r (t ) − n ]b (t ) + w (t ) − c (t )) .
where
λ (t )
µ (t ) ≡ = λ(t ) exp((ρ − n)t ). (61)
exp(−(ρ − n )t )
The Lagrangian (55) can be rewritten as
Z ∞ Z ∞
L= exp(−(ρ − n )t )H(
b t, b, c, µ)dt + λ(0)b (0) + λ̇(t )b (t )dt.
0 0
The first-order conditions are therefore
exp(−(ρ − n )t )H
b c (t, b, c, µ) = 0 (62)
and
exp(−(ρ − n )t )H
b b (t, b, c, λ) = −λ̇(t ). (63)
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Current-value Hamiltonian (cont’d)
H
b c (t, b, c, µ) = 0. (64)
H
b b (t, b, c, λ) = −µ̇(t ) + (ρ − n )µ(t ). (65)
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[r (t ) − n]b (t ) + w (t ) − c (t ) − ḃ (t ) = 0. (66)
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