Transaction Month of Year Order Total (Model) Order Total (Actual) Lower Confidence Interval

Jan 77,590,959
Feb 59,976,925
Mar 60,251,192
Apr 53,096,297 53,263,935
May 43,017,082 43,142,101
Jun 40,950,477 41,291,241
Jul 38,520,734 37,863,989
Aug 36,987,403 37,206,919
Sep 36,802,069 37,222,767
Oct 39,100,977 39,019,151
Nov 82,199,324 82,168,980
Dec 116,764,214 116,857,709
Jan 145,654,017 144,923,860
Feb 169,188,858 168,156,260
Mar 188,432,881 187,168,212
Apr 204,168,045 202,707,731
May 217,034,138 215,401,456
Jun 227,554,291 225,765,778
Jul 236,156,252 234,224,438
Aug 243,189,775 241,124,578
Sep 248,940,840 246,750,368
Oct 253,643,285 251,334,325
Nov 257,488,309 255,066,652
Dec 260,632,251 258,102,912
Jan 263,202,942 260,570,323
Feb 265,304,906 262,572,908
Mar 267,023,609 264,195,722
Apr 268,428,932 265,508,303
May 269,578,015 266,567,500
Jun 270,517,580 267,419,786
Jul 271,285,830 268,103,148
Aug 271,914,001 268,648,638
Sep 272,427,634 269,081,633
Oct 272,847,614 269,422,873
Nov 273,191,017 269,689,306
Dec 273,471,805 269,894,780
Upper Confidence Interval Order Marketing Cost
3,454,780.52
2,650,160.06
2,627,979.35
2,311,967.79
1,847,916.56
1,754,359.52
1,634,200.91
1,596,053.83
1,579,227.79
1,665,171.10
3,628,598.87
5,190,406.60
146,384,174 6,469,055.58
170,221,456 7,514,559.67
189,697,551 8,369,431.76
205,628,360 9,068,430.74
218,666,819 9,639,977.74
229,342,804 10,107,311.72
238,088,067 10,489,434.35
245,254,971 10,801,882.65
251,131,312 11,057,360.69
255,952,245 11,266,256.13
259,909,967 11,437,062.63
263,161,590 11,576,725.12
265,835,561 11,690,922.25
268,036,904 11,784,297.25
269,851,496 11,860,646.71
271,349,561 11,923,075.00
272,588,530 11,974,120.42
273,615,375 12,015,858.48
274,468,511 12,049,986.22
275,179,363 12,077,891.29
275,773,635 12,100,708.28
276,272,355 12,119,364.94
276,692,728 12,134,619.84
277,048,831 12,147,093.23
Dependent Variable Algorithm
Order Total ARIMA: Order Total ~ D = (1) NOINT + INPUT: Dif(1) Order Marketing Cost NUM = 2
ost NUM = 2
Forecast Summary
Historical values of Order Total are displayed as markers only, without a line. The chart displays predicted values (hindcast) as
predicted values (hindcast) as part of the forecast line. Some forecasting models include delayed effects, in which case the hindcast will no
which case the hindcast will not begin at the start of the MONTH axis.