Quarterly

Australian
Year Quarter Period wine sales
2017 1 1 212233 2017_Q1 Average
2018 1 5 218639 2018_Q1
2019 1 9 214829 2019_Q1
2020 1 13 220886 2020_Q1 216646.8
2017 2 2 241985 2017_Q2
2018 2 6 246890 2018_Q2
2019 2 10 240320 2019_Q2
2020 2 14 250836 2020_Q2 245007.8
2017 3 3 257353 2017_Q3
2018 3 7 262557 2018_Q3
2019 3 11 277508 2019_Q3
2020 3 15 252201 2020_Q3 262404.8
2017 4 4 277709 2017_Q4
2018 4 8 283226 2018_Q4
2019 4 12 289626 2019_Q4
2020 4 16 293485 2020_Q4 286011.5
 Alpha = 0.15
Quarterly
Australian Percent
period Quarter wine sales forecast error ABS(error) Squared Error Error
1 2017_Q1 212233 212233.00 - - - -
2 2017_Q2 241985 212233.00 29752.00 29752.00 885181504.00 0.12
3 2017_Q3 257353 216695.80 40657.20 40657.20 1653007911.84 0.16
4 2017_Q4 277709 222794.38 54914.62 54914.62 3015615489.74 0.20
5 2018_Q1 218639 231031.57 -12392.57 12392.57 153575865.56 0.06
6 2018_Q2 246890 229172.69 17717.31 17717.31 313903178.17 0.07
7 2018_Q3 262557 231830.28 30726.72 30726.72 944131076.61 0.12
8 2018_Q4 283226 236439.29 46786.71 46786.71 2188996102.22 0.17
9 2019_Q1 214829 243457.30 -28628.30 28628.30 819579428.32 0.13
10 2019_Q2 240320 239163.05 1156.95 1156.95 1338526.29 0.00
11 2019_Q3 277508 239336.60 38171.40 38171.40 1457056153.79 0.14
12 2019_Q4 289626 245062.31 44563.69 44563.69 1985922839.37 0.15
13 2020_Q1 220886 251746.86 -30860.86 30860.86 952392676.43 0.14
14 2020_Q2 250836 247117.73 3718.27 3718.27 13825524.72 0.01
15 2020_Q3 252201 247675.47 4525.53 4525.53 20480409.93 0.02
16 2020_Q4 293485 248354.30 45130.70 45130.70 2036780027.19 0.15
23947.79 31406.13 1219846188.72 0.12
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Exponential Forecast
24 2022_Q1 245062.31
25 2022_Q2 251746.86
26 2022_Q3 247117.73
27 2022_Q4 247675.47
Linear Trend Model (Fit a line to the time series data)

Quarterly
Australian Percent
period Quarter wine sales forecast error ABS(error) Squared Error Error
1 2017_Q1 212233 238362.71 - - - -
2 2017_Q2 241985 240250.04 1734.96 1734.96 3010097.43 0.01
3 2017_Q3 257353 242137.37 15215.63 15215.63 231515467.90 0.06
4 2017_Q4 277709 244024.70 33684.30 33684.30 1134632165.56 0.12
5 2018_Q1 218639 245912.03 -27273.03 27273.03 743818133.29 0.12
6 2018_Q2 246890 247799.36 -909.36 909.36 826936.14 0.00
7 2018_Q3 262557 249686.69 12870.31 12870.31 165644849.21 0.05
8 2018_Q4 283226 251574.02 31651.98 31651.98 1001847707.59 0.11
9 2019_Q1 214829 253461.35 -38632.35 38632.35 1492458693.77 0.18
10 2019_Q2 240320 255348.68 -15028.68 15028.68 225861337.47 0.06
11 2019_Q3 277508 257236.01 20271.99 20271.99 410953387.76 0.07
12 2019_Q4 289626 259123.35 30502.65 30502.65 930411926.16 0.11
13 2020_Q1 220886 261010.68 -40124.68 40124.68 1609989661.87 0.18
14 2020_Q2 250836 262898.01 -12062.01 12062.01 145492021.38 0.05
15 2020_Q3 252201 264785.34 -12584.34 12584.34 158365568.82 0.05
16 2020_Q4 293485 266672.67 26812.33 26812.33 718901087.34 0.09
1741.98 21290.57 598248602.78 0.08
BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Intercept 236475.4
Slope 1887.331
This forecast is for year 2022
Period Forecast
24 2022_Q1 281771.316176471
25 2022_Q2 283658.647058824
26 2022_Q3 285545.977941176
27 2022_Q4 287433.308823529
28 2023-Q1 289320.639705882
29 2023-Q2 291207.970588235
30 2023-Q3 293095.301470588
31 2023-Q4 294982.632352941
32 2022_Q9 296869.963235294
33
 Actual vs Forecasted
600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

0
2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020
_Q1 _Q2 _Q3 _Q4 _Q1 _Q2 _Q3 _Q4 _Q1 _Q2 _Q3 _Q4 _Q1 _Q2 _Q3 _Q4

Quarterly Australian forecast

Models BIAS MAD MSE MAPE

Exponential
Forecast Trend
2022_Q1 245062.31 281771.31618
2022_Q2 251746.86 283658.64706
2022_Q3 247117.73 285545.97794
2022_Q4 247675.47 287433.30882