07/06/2020

Health Risk Assessment

Some Questions
• Can CKDU in Sri Lanka be due to heavy pesticide usage?

• Can Kandy air pollution result in health risks to its citizens?

• Can an emission from a industrial facility can adversely

affect the health of the neighbouring people?

• Can the exposure level for a chemical at a work place

result in a certain disease?

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Chemicals Health Impact??

Health Impact Chemicals??

Objectives of this section is to introduce

some basic principles of exposure
health risk assessment

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Exposure Risk Assessment

Hazard Identification

Exposure Assessment Dose Response

Analysis

Risk Characterization

Risk
Management

1. Hazard identification

Determining whether a particular chemical is casually linked

to a particular health effects

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1.Hazard Identification
• Different pathways-Ingestion, inhalation, contact
• Different organs are affected
• Different effects
– Acute toxicity, chronic toxicity

1.Hazard Identification – with available info

100 100
Chemical A Chemical B Chemical A

50
% mortality

50 Chemical C

0 0

Dose Dose

Dose response mortality curves

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1.Hazard Identification- with available info

• Eg acute toxicity levels
Toxicity rating Lethal Dose (mg/kg of body wt)

Nontoxic >15000
Slightly toxic 5000-15000
Moderately toxic 500-5000
Very toxic 50-500
Extremely toxic 5-50
Supertoxic <5

1.Hazard identification- methods

Gather data through
• Epidemiological Studies
• Control Human Experiments
• Animal Studies
• In Vitro studies

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1.Hazard identification
Epidemiological studies

With Without
disease disease
Exposed a b
Not
exposed
c d

a a  b  ad
Re lative risk  Odds ratio 
c c  d  bc

a c
Attributable risk  
ab cd

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2. Dose response assessment

• Characterizing the relationship between the dose of a

chemical administered or exposed and incidence of an
adverse health effects.
• Many different D-R relationships are possible for any given
agent depending conditions such as carcinogenic vs non-
carcinogenic
• Extrapolating animal test results is an issue

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2. D-R curve for non-carcinogens

RfD-acceptable daily intake

NOAEL – identified as the highest

Response

Actual
Threshold
nonstatistically significant dose tested.
LOAEL

RfD NOAEL LOAEL – lowest dose tested with

statistically significant effect.

Dose (mg/kg day)

Average Daily Dose during the Exposure Period ( mg / kg  day )
Hazardous Quotient 
RfD

Hazardous Index   Hazardous Quotient

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Oral RfDs
Chemical RfD (mg/kg-day)
Acetone 0.100
Arsenic 0.0003
Toluene 0.200
Tetra-chloroethylene 0.010
Chloroform 0.010

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2.Dose-response assessment -
Carcinogens

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2.Dose-response assessment - Carcinogens

1
Lifetime probability of cancer

Range of interest

0.5

PF = Gradient Dose (mg/kg day)

Incremental life time cancer risk Average daily dose (mg/day)

Potency factor  CDI ( mg / kg  day ) 
Chronic daily intake (mg / kg  day ) Body weight (kg)

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2.Dose-response assessment
Potency factor for carcinogens

Incremental life time cancer risk

Potency factor 
Chronic daily intake (mg/kg  day)

Chemical category PF oral route PF inhalation

route
Ar A 1.75 50
Benzene A 2.9x10-2 2.9x10-2
B(a)P B2 11.5 6.11
CCl4 B2 0.13 -
Chloroform B2 6.1x10-3 8.1x10-2

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3.Human exposure assessment

Measures or estimates the number of people exposed

and the magnitude, duration, and timing of their
exposure

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3. Human exposure assessment

Assessment process (e.g. air pollutants)

• Estimate the concentration of the pollutants for a
given geographical area
• Estimate how many people breath the air containing
a pollutant at different level or selected level
• Estimate dose

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3.Human exposure assessment

Exposure is affected by
• Duration and frequency
• Microenvironments
• Particle size and the physicochemical makeup of the
pollutant
• Routes of exposure
• Sensitivity of the population

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4. Risk Characterization

• Integration of the above three steps

• Results in an estimation of the magnitude of the public
health problem

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CDI for intermittent exposure

Oral route

Inhalation route

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EXAMPLES

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Example 1
Workers at a factory are exposed to a carcinogenic chemical that
has a potency factor of 0.4 (mg/kg-day)-1. The estimated
concentration of this chemical in air is 0.02 mg/m3. A worker on
average spends 8 h per day in the factory and the average number
of working days per year is 250. If a person weighing 65 kg works
for 20 years in this factory, estimate the incremental life time cancer
risk to this person. The expected life time of the person is 70 years.
The breathing rate of an adult person can be taken as 20 m3/day

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Chronic daily intake (CDI) = Total intake (mg)/[body wt (kg)x lifetime (days)]
Total intake = (volume/hour) x concentration x exposure time
= (20/24)(m3/h)x 0.02(mg/m3) x(20 x 250x8)(h)
= 666.7 mg

Therefore, CDI = 666.7 mg/(65 kg x 365 x70 day)

= 4.01 x 10-4 (mg/kg.d)

Therefore, cancer risk = 0.04x4.01x 10-4

= 16.1x10-6
(16 per million exposed)

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Example 2
Estimate the concentration of chloroform in drinking water
that would result in 10-6 risk for a 70 kg person who drinks 2
L/day throughout his/her entire life time (70y). PF of CF is
6.1 x 10-3 kg.day/mg

CDI = Risk/PF = 10-6/6.1x10-3 = 1.64 x 10-4 (mg/kg.day)

But, CDI = C (mg/L) x 2 (L/day)/70 kg
C = 6 x 10-3 mg/L

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Example 3
Suppose drinking water contains 1.0 mg/L of toluene and 0.01 mg/L
tetrachloroethylene (TCE). A 70 kg adult drinks 2 L/day of this water for 10 years.

a. Would the hazard index suggest that this was a safe level of exposure?

b. TCE is a carcinogen with a PF of 5.1x10-2 kg.day/mg. What would be the

carcinogenic risk faced by someone drinking this water?

Data: RfD: Toluene – 0.200 mg/kg.day, TCE – 0.01 mg/kg.day

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Example 4
Suppose an industrial facility that emits benzene into the atmosphere is being
proposed for a site near a residential neighbourhood. Air quality model predicts
that 60% of the time, prevailing winds will blow the benzene away from the
neighbourhood, but 40% of the time, the benzene concentration will be 0.01
mg/m3. Estimate the incremental risk to adults in the area if the facility is
allowed to be built. If the acceptable risk is 10-6, should this plant be allowed to
built?
Data: PF of benzene for inhalation 2.9 x 10-2 kg.day/mg; Average weight of a
person 70; expected life time 70 years; Breathing rate 20 m3/day.

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Solution
CDI = 0.01 mg/m3 x 20 m3/day x 350 days/year x 30 yr x 0.4
70 kg x 365 day/yr x 70 yr
= 0.00047 mg/ kg.day

Incremental cancer risk = PF x CDI

= 2.9 x 10-2 kg.day/mg x 0.00047 mg/kg.day
= 1.3 x 10-5
Risk is greater than acceptable level and the plant should not be allowed to built
at the proposed site

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