Exercises 4 Program
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ScribdTranslationsNATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL PERU
FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
4. For the printing project, the optimistic, pessimistic and most probable duration times
have been estimated, which are presented in the following table
a) Determine the critical path
b) What is the expected project duration and its variance?
c) Determine the probability that the project will be completed in 20 weeks.
d) Construct a plot of completion time versus cumulative probability, from t=1 to t=30.
SOLUTION:
a) Determine the critical path
To determine the critical path, we use the Pert diagram.
Tiempo de duracion tiempo
ACTIVIDAD PRECEDENCIA
optimista Mas probable Pesimista eperado
A B,C 1 2 4 2.2
B D,E 1 3 5 3.0
C F,G 2 5 9 5.2
D H 3 4 5 4.0
E I 1 1 1 1.0
F I 4 6 12 6.7
G J 2 2 3 2.2
H - 4 8 14 8.3
I - 6 7 10 7.3
J - 2 4 6 4.0
PERT METHOD DIAGRAM
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FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
WE CONCLUDE THAT THE CRITICAL PATH HAS H= 0
KNOTS 1- 2- 8 - 9 - 10 - 11
CRITICAL PATH = I - F - C - A
b) What is the expected project duration and its variance?
The duration time obtained from the PERT diagram found above is 21.4 weeks.
Calculation of the critical path alliances.
ACTIVIDAD a m b VARIANZA
A 1 2 4 0.250
C 2 5 9 1.361
F 4 6 12 1.778
I 6 7 10 0.444
3.833
[ ]
2
1
v 2=σ 2= ( b−a )
6
Standard deviation (S)
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FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
DESVIACION
ESTANDAR
1.958
c) Determine the probability that the project will be completed in 20 weeks.
Data:
PROBABILIDAD
μ=T= 21.4
X= 20
S= 1.958
X−T 20−21.4
Z= Z= =−0.750
S 1.958
Using excel tables or formulas
P ( Z ←0.750 ) =0.2373=23.73 %
d) Construct a plot of completion time versus cumulative probability, from t=1 to
t=30.
X−T
Z= and with tables or using Excel
S
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FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
X ( dias) Z DISTRIBUCION N PROB PROB AC
1 -10.419 0 0.0000 0.0000
2 -9.909 0 0.0000 0.0000
3 -9.398 0 0.0000 0.0000
4 -8.887 0 0.0000 0.0000
5 -8.376 0 0.0000 0.0000
6 -7.866 0 0.0000 0.0000
7 -7.355 0 0.0000 0.0000
8 -6.844 0 0.0000 0.0000
9 -6.333 0 0.0000 0.0000
10 -5.823 0.000000003 0.0000 0.0000
11 -5.312 0.00000005 0.0000 0.0000
12 -4.801 0.00000079 0.0001 0.0001
13 -4.290 0.00000894 0.0009 0.0010
14 -3.780 0.00007844 0.0078 0.0088
15 -3.269 0.0005 0.0500 0.0588
16 -2.758 0.0029 0.2900 0.3488
17 -2.247 0.012 1.2000 1.5488
18 -1.737 0.041 4.1000 5.6488
19 -1.226 0.11 11.0000 16.6488
20 -0.715 0.237 23.7000 40.3488
21 -0.204 0.419 41.9000 82.2488
22 0.306 0.62 62.0000 144.2488
23 0.817 0.793 79.3000 223.5488
24 1.328 0.892 89.2000 312.7488
25 1.839 0.967 96.7000 409.4488
26 2.349 0.991 99.1000 508.5488
27 2.860 0.998 99.8000 608.3488
28 3.371 0.99963 99.9630 708.3118
29 3.882 0.99995 99.9950 808.3068
30 4.392 0.99999 99.9990 908.3058
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FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
PROBABILIDAD QUE EL PROYECTO
1000
900
TERMINE
800
PROBABILIDAD ACUMULADA
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
SEMANAS
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