0% found this document useful (0 votes)
70 views61 pages

Lesson - 10

The document discusses the classical definition of probability and provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the probability of different events using this definition. It defines key terms like equally likely outcomes, mutually exclusive outcomes, and exhaustive outcomes. It then gives step-by-step solutions to calculate probabilities for events like obtaining heads in a coin toss, drawing a face card from a deck of cards, and obtaining a total of six with two dice.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
70 views61 pages

Lesson - 10

The document discusses the classical definition of probability and provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the probability of different events using this definition. It defines key terms like equally likely outcomes, mutually exclusive outcomes, and exhaustive outcomes. It then gives step-by-step solutions to calculate probabilities for events like obtaining heads in a coin toss, drawing a face card from a deck of cards, and obtaining a total of six with two dice.
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 61

Unit-IV

LESSON

10
PROBABILITY

CONTENTS
10.0 Aims and Objectives
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Classical Definition of Probability
10.3 Counting Techniques
10.4 Statistical or Empirical Definition of Probability
10.5 Axiomatic or Modern Approach to Probability
10.6 Theorems on Probability-I
10.7 Theorems on Probability-II
10.8 Let us Sum Up
10.9 Lesson-end Activity
10.10 Keywords
10.11 Questions for Discussion
10.12 Terminal Questions
10.13 Model Answers to Questions for Discussion
10.14 Suggested Readings

10.0 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES


The probability, theoretical probability distribution and probability distribution of random
variable in the three important interrelated trades which we are going to discuss in this
head (Unit IV). As we know that probability associated with the occurence of various
events are determined by specifying the condition of a random experiments.

10.1 INTRODUCTION
The concept of probability originated from the analysis of the games of chance in the
17th century. Now the subject has been developed to the extent that it is very difficult to
imagine a discipline, be it from social or natural sciences, that can do without it.
The theory of probability is a study of Statistical or Random Experiments. It is the
backbone of Statistical Inference and Decision Theory that are essential tools
of the analysis of most of the modern business and economic problems.
Often, in our day-to-day life, we hear sentences like 'it may rain today', 'Mr X has fifty-
fifty chances of passing the examination', 'India may win the forthcoming cricket match
against Sri Lanka', 'the chances of making profits by investing in shares of company A
are very bright', etc. Each of the above sentences involves an element of uncertainty.
Quantitative Techniques A phenomenon or an experiment which can result into more than one possible outcome,
for Management
is called a random phenomenon or random experiment or statistical experiment. Although,
we may be aware of all the possible outcomes of a random experiment, it is not possible
to predetermine the outcome associated with a particular experimentation or trial.
Consider, for example, the toss of a coin. The result of a toss can be a head or a tail,
therefore, it is a random experiment. Here we know that either a head or a tail would
occur as a result of the toss, however, it is not possible to predetermine the outcome.
With the use of probability theory, it is possible to assign a quantitative measure, to
express the extent of uncertainty, associated with the occurrence of each possible outcome
of a random experiment.

10.2 CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY


This definition, also known as the mathematical definition of probability,
was given by J. Bernoulli. With the use of this definition, the probabilities associated with
the occurrence of various events are determined by specifying the conditions of a random
experiment. It is because of this that the classical definition is also known as 'a priori'
definition of probability.
Definition
If n is the number of equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes of a
random experiment out of which m outcomes are favourable to the occurrence of an
event A, then the probability that A occurs, denoted by P(A), is given by :
Number of outcomes favourable to A m
P ( A) = =
Number of exhaustive outcomes n
Various terms used in the above definition are explained below :
1. Equally likely outcomes: The outcomes of random experiment are said to be
equally likely or equally probable if the occurrence of none of them is expected in
preference to others. For example, if an unbiased coin is tossed, the two possible
outcomes, a head or a tail are equally likely.
2. Mutually exclusive outcomes: Two or more outcomes of an experiment are said
to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them precludes the occurrence
of all others in the same trial. For example, the two possible outcomes of toss of a
coin are mutually exclusive. Similarly, the occurrences of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6 in the roll of a six faced die are mutually exclusive.
3. Exhaustive outcomes: It is the totality of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment. The number of exhaustive outcomes in the roll of a die are six. Similarly,
there are 52 exhaustive outcomes in the experiment of drawing a card from a pack
of 52 cards.
4. Event: The occurrence or non-occurrence of a phenomenon is called an event.
For example, in the toss of two coins, there are four exhaustive outcomes, viz.
(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T). The events associated with this experiment can be
defined in a number of ways. For example, (i) the event of occurrence of head on
both the coins, (ii) the event of occurrence of head on at least one of the two coins,
(iii) the event of non-occurrence of head on the two coins, etc.
An event can be simple or composite depending upon whether it corresponds to a single
outcome of the experiment or not. In the example, given above, the event defined by (i)
is simple, while those defined by (ii) and (iii) are composite events.
Example 1: What is the probability of obtaining a head in the toss of an unbiased coin?
Solution: This experiment has two possible outcomes, i.e., occurrence of a head or tail.
These two outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. Since the coin is given to be
unbiased, the two outcomes are equally likely. Thus, all the conditions of the classical
300 definition are satisfied.
No. of cases favourable to the occurrence of head = 1 Probability

No. of exhaustive cases = 2

\ Probability of obtaining head P ( H ) = 1 .


2
Example 2: What is the probability of obtaining at least one head in the simultaneous
toss of two unbiased coins?
Solution: The equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes of the experiment
are (H, H), (H, T), (T, H) and (T, T), where H denotes a head and T denotes a tail.
Thus, n = 4.
Let A be the event that at least one head occurs. This event corresponds the first three
outcomes of the random experiment. Therefore, m = 3.

Hence, probability that A occurs, i.e., P ( A) = 3 .


4
Example 3: Find the probability of obtaining an odd number in the roll of an unbiased
die.
Solution: The number of equally likely, mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes,
i.e., n = 6. There are three odd numbers out of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Therefore,
m = 3.

Thus, probability of occurrence of an odd number = 3 = 1 .


6 2
Example 4: What is the chance of drawing a face card in a draw from a pack of 52
well-shuffled cards?
Solution: Total possible outcomes n = 52.
Since the pack is well-shuffled, these outcomes are equally likely. Further, since only one
card is to be drawn, the outcomes are mutually exclusive.
There are 12 face cards, \ m = 12.

Thus, probability of drawing a face card = 12 = 3 .


52 13
Example 5: What is the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53
Sundays?
Solution: A leap year has 366 days. It contains 52 complete weeks, i.e, 52 Sundays. The
remaining two days of the year could be anyone of the following pairs :
(Monday, Tuesday), (Tuesday, Wednesday), (Wednesday, Thursday), (Thursday, Friday),
(Friday, Saturday), (Saturday, Sunday), (Sunday, Monday). Thus, there are seven
possibilities out of which last two are favourable to the occurrence of 53rd Sunday.
2
Hence, the required probability = .
7
Example 6: Find the probability of throwing a total of six in a single throw with two
unbiased dice.
Solution: The number of exhaustive cases n = 36, because with two dice all the possible
outcomes are :
(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
(4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),
(6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6). 301
Quantitative Techniques Out of these outcomes the number of cases favourable to the event A of getting 6 are :
for Management
(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1). Thus, we have m = 5.
5
\ P ( A) =
36
Example 7: A bag contains 15 tickets marked with numbers 1 to 15. One ticket is
drawn at random. Find the probability that:
(i) the number on it is greater than 10,
(ii) the number on it is even,
(iii) the number on it is a multiple of 2 or 5.
Solution: Number of exhaustive cases n = 15
(i) Tickets with number greater than 10 are 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15. Therefore, m = 5 and
5 1
hence the required probability = =
15 3
(ii) Number of even numbered tickets m = 7
7
\ Required probability =
15 .
(iii) The multiple of 2 are : 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14 and the multiple of 5 are : 5, 10, 15.
\ m = 9 (note that 10 is repeated in both multiples will be counted only once).
9 3
Thus, the required probability = =
15 5

10.3 COUNTING TECHNIQUES


Counting techniques or combinatorial methods are often helpful in the enumeration of
total number of outcomes of a random experiment and the number of cases favourable
to the occurrence of an event.
Fundamental Principle of Counting
If the first operation can be performed in any one of the m ways and then a second
operation can be performed in any one of the n ways, then both can be performed
together in any one of the m × n ways.
This rule can be generalised. If first operation can be performed in any one of the n1
ways, second operation in any one of the n2 ways, ...... kth operation in any one of the nk
ways, then together these can be performed in any one of the n1 × n2 × ...... × nk ways.
Permutation
A permutation is an arrangement of a given number of objects in a definite order.
(a) Permutations of n objects: The total number of permutations of n distinct objects
is n!. Using symbols, we can write n Pn = n!, (where n denotes the permutations of
n objects, all taken together).
Let us assume there are n persons to be seated on n chairs. The first chair can be
occupied by any one of the n persons and hence, there are n ways in which it can
be occupied. Similarly, the second chair can be occupied in n - 1 ways and so on.
Using the fundamental principle of counting, the total number of ways in which n
chairs can be occupied by n persons or the permutations of n objects taking all at a
time is given by :
n
Pn = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ...... 3.2.1 = n!
(b) Permutations of n objects taking r at a time: In terms of the example, considered
above, now we have n persons to be seated on r chairs, where r £ n.
302 Thus, n Pr = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ...... [n – (r – 1)] = n(n – 1)(n – 2) ...... (n – r + 1).
On multiplication and division of the R.H.S. by (n - r)!, we get Probability

b gb g b gb g
n n − 1 n − 2 .... n − r + 1 n − r ! n!
Pr =
bn − r g ! =
n

(n − r )!

(c) Permutations of n objects taking r at a time when any object may be repeated
any number of times: Here, each of the r places can be filled in n ways. Therefore,
total number of permutations is nr.
(d) Permutations of n objects in a circular order: Suppose that there are three
persons A, B and C, to be seated on the three chairs 1, 2 and 3, in a circular order.
Then, the following three arrangements are identical:

Figure 10.1
Similarly, if n objects are seated in a circle, there will be n identical arrangements of
the above type. Thus, in order to obtain distinct permutation of n objects in circular
order we divide n Pn by n, where n Pn denotes number of permutations in a row.

Hence, the number of permutations in a circular order n! = (n − 1)!


n
(e) Permutations with restrictions: If out of n objects n1 are alike of one kind, n2 are
n!
alike of another kind, ...... nk are alike, the number of permutations are
n1 ! n2 ! .... nk !
Since permutation of ni objects, which are alike, is only one (i = 1, 2, ...... k).
Therefore, n! is to be divided by n1!, n2! .... nk!, to get the required permutations.
Example 8: What is the total number of ways of simultaneous throwing of (i) 3 coins,
(ii) 2 dice and (iii) 2 coins and a die ?
Solution:
(i) Each coin can be thrown in any one of the two ways, i.e, a head or a tail,
therefore, the number of ways of simultaneous throwing of 3 coins = 23 = 8.
(ii) Similarly, the total number of ways of simultaneous throwing of two dice is equal to
62 = 36 and
(iii) The total number of ways of simultaneous throwing of 2 coins and a die
is equal to 22 × 6 = 24.
Example 9: A person can go from Delhi to Port-Blair via Allahabad and Calcutta using
following mode of transport :
Delhi to Allahabad Allahabad to Calcutta Calcutta to Port-Blair
By Rail By Rail By Air
By Bus By Bus By Ship
By Car By Car
By Air By Air
In how many different ways the journey can be planned?
Solution: The journey from Delhi to Port-Blair can be treated as three operations; From
Delhi to Allahabad, from Allahabad to Calcutta and from Calcutta to Port-Blair. Using
the fundamental principle of counting, the journey can be planned in 4 × 4 × 2 = 32 ways. 303
Quantitative Techniques Example 10: In how many ways the first, second and third prize can be given to 10
for Management
competitors?
Solution: There are 10 ways of giving first prize, nine ways of giving second prize and
eight ways of giving third prize. Therefore, total no. ways is 10 × 9 × 8 = 720.
Alternative method:

10 10!
Here n = 10 and r = 3, \ P3 = = 720
(10 - 3)!
Example 11:
(a) There are 5 doors in a room. In how many ways can three persons enter the room
using different doors?
(b) A lady is asked to rank 5 types of washing powders according to her preference.
Calculate the total number of possible rankings.
(c) In how many ways 6 passengers can be seated on 15 available seats.
(d) If there are six different trains available for journey between Delhi to Kanpur,
calculate the number of ways in which a person can complete his return journey by
using a different train in each direction.
(e) In how many ways President, Vice-President, Secretary and Treasurer of an
association can be nominated at random out of 130 members?
Solution:
(a) The first person can use any of the 5 doors and hence can enter the room in 5
ways. Similarly, the second person can enter in 4 ways and third person can enter

in 3 ways. Thus, the total number of ways is 5!


5
P3 = = 60 .
2!
(b) Total number of rankings are 5!
= 120 .
5
P5 = (Note that 0! = 1)
0!
(c) Total number of ways of seating 6 passengers on 15 seats are
15 15!
P6 = = 36,03,600.
9!
(d) Total number of ways of performing return journey, using different train in each
direction are 6 × 5 = 30, which is also equal to 6 P2 .
(e) Total number of ways of nominating for the 4 post of association are
130 130!
P4 = = 27, 26,13,120 .
126!
Example 12: Three prizes are awarded each for getting more than 80% marks, 98%
attendance and good behaviour in the college. In how many ways the prizes can be
awarded if 15 students of the college are eligible for the three prizes?
Solution: Note that all the three prizes can be awarded to the same student. The prize
for getting more than 80% marks can be awarded in 15 ways, prize for 90% attendance
can be awarded in 15 ways and prize for good behaviour can also be awarded in 15
ways.
Thus, the total number of ways is nr = 153 = 3,375.
Example 13:
(a) In how many ways can the letters of the word EDUCATION be arranged?
(b) In how many ways can the letters of the word STATISTICS be arranged?
304
(c) In how many ways can 20 students be allotted to 4 tutorial groups of 4, 5, 5 and Probability
6 students respectively?
(d) In how many ways 10 members of a committee can be seated at a round table if (i)
they can sit anywhere (ii) president and secretary must not sit next to each other?
Solution:
(a) The given word EDUCATION has 9 letters. Therefore, number of
permutations of 9 letters is 9! = 3,62,880.
(b) The word STATISTICS has 10 letters in which there are 3S's, 3T's, 2I's, 1A and

1C. Thus, the required number of permutations 10! = 50,400.


3!3!2!1!1!

(c) Required number of permutations 20! = 9,77,72,87,522


4!5!5!6!
(d) (i) Number of permutations when they can sit anywhere = (10-1)!= 9! = 3,62,880.
(ii) We first find the number of permutations when president and secretary must
sit together. For this we consider president and secretary as one person.
Thus, the number of permutations of 9 persons at round table = 8! = 40,320.
\ The number of permutations when president and secretary must not sit together
= 3,62,880 - 40,320 = 3,22,560.
Example 14:
(a) In how many ways 4 men and 3 women can be seated in a row such that women
occupy the even places?
(b) In how many ways 4 men and 4 women can be seated such that men and women
occupy alternative places?
Solution:
(a) 4 men can be seated in 4! ways and 3 women can be seated in 3! ways. Since each
arrangement of men is associated with each arrangement of women, therefore,
the required number of permutations = 4! 3! = 144.
(b) There are two ways in which 4 men and 4 women can be seated
MWMWMWMWMW or WMWMWMWMWM
\ The required number of permutations = 2 .4! 4! = 1,152
Example 15: There are 3 different books of economics, 4 different books of commerce
and 5 different books of statistics. In how many ways these can be arranged on a
shelf when
(a) all the books are arranged at random,
(b) books of each subject are arranged together,
(c) books of only statistics are arranged together, and
(d) books of statistics and books of other subjects are arranged together?
Solution:
(a) The required number of permutations = 12!
(b) The economics books can be arranged in 3! ways, commerce books in 4! ways
and statistics book in 5! ways. Further, the three groups can be arranged in 3!
ways. \ The required number of permutations = 3! 4! 5! 3! =1,03,680.
(c) Consider 5 books of statistics as one book. Then 8 books can be arranged in 8!
ways and 5 books of statistics can be arranged among themselves in 5! ways.
\ The required number of permutations = 8! 5! = 48,38,400. 305
Quantitative Techniques (d) There are two groups which can be arranged in 2! ways. The books of other
for Management
subjects can be arranged in 7! ways and books of statistics can be arranged in 5!
ways. Thus, the required number of ways = 2! 7! 5! = 12,09,600.

Combination
When no attention is given to the order of arrangement of the selected objects, we get a
combination. We know that the number of permutations of n objects taking r at a time is
n
Pr . Since r objects can be arranged in r! ways, therefore, there are r! permutations
corresponding to one combination. Thus, the number of combinations of n objects taking
r at a time, denoted by nCr , can be obtained by dividing n
Pr by r!, i.e.,

n
Pr n!
n
Cr = = .
r ! r !( n − r )!

Note: (a) Since nCr nCn r , therefore, nCr is also equal to the combinations of n
objects taking (n - r) at a time.
(b) The total number of combinations of n distinct objects taking 1, 2, ...... n
respectively, at a time is n C1 + n C2 + ...... + n Cn = 2n - 1 .
Example 16:
(a) In how many ways two balls can be selected from 8 balls?
(b) In how many ways a group of 12 persons can be divided into two groups of 7 and
5 persons respectively?
(c) A committee of 8 teachers is to be formed out of 6 science, 8 arts teachers and a
physical instructor. In how many ways the committee can be formed if
1. Any teacher can be included in the committee.
2. There should be 3 science and 4 arts teachers on the committee such that
(i) any science teacher and any arts teacher can be included, (ii) one particular
science teacher must be on the committee, (iii) three particular arts teachers
must not be on the committee?
Solution:

8 8!
(a) 2 balls can be selected from 8 balls in C2 = = 28 ways.
2!6!
(b) Since n Cr = n Cn - r , therefore, the number of groups of 7 persons out of 12 is also
equal to the number of groups of 5 persons out of 12. Hence, the required number

of groups is 12!
12
= 792 .
C7 =
7!5!
Alternative Method: We may regard 7 persons of one type and remaining 5 persons
of another type. The required number of groups are equal to the number of
permutations of 12 persons where 7 are alike of one type and 5 are alike of another
type.

(c) 1. 8 teachers can be selected out of 15 in 15!


15
C8 = = 6,435 ways.
8!7!
2. (i) 3 science teachers can be selected out of 6 teachers in 6 C3 ways and 4
arts teachers can be selected out of 8 in 8C4 ways and the physical
instructor can be selected in 1C1 way. Therefore, the required number

306
of ways = 6C3 × 8C4 × 1C1 = 20 × 70 × 1 = 1400.
Probability
(ii) 2 additional science teachers can be selected in 5C2 ways. The number
of selections of other teachers is same as in (i) above. Thus, the required
number of ways = 5C2 × 8C4 × 1C1 = 10 × 70 × 1 = 700.

(iii) 3 science teachers can be selected in 6 C3 ways and 4 arts teachers out
of remaining 5 arts teachers can be selected in 5C4 ways.

\ The required number of ways = 6C3 × 5C4 = 20 × 5 = 100.

Ordered Partitions
1. Ordered Partitions (distinguishable objects)
(a) The total number of ways of putting n distinct objects into r compartments
which are marked as 1, 2, ...... r is equal to rn.
Since first object can be put in any of the r compartments in r ways, second
can be put in any of the r compartments in r ways and so on.
(b) The number of ways in which n objects can be put into r compartments such
that the first compartment contains n1 objects, second contains n2 objects and
so on the rth compartment contains nr objects, where n1 + n2 + ...... + nr = n,
n!
is given by n !n ! ...... n ! .
1 2 r
To illustrate this, let r = 3. Then n1 objects in the first compartment can be put
in nCn1 ways. Out of the remaining n – n1 objects, n2 objects can be put in the
second compartment in n n1 Cn2 ways. Finally the remaining n – n1 – n2 = n3
objects can be put in the third compartment in one way. Thus, the required
n!
number of ways is n
Cn1 ¥ n - n1 Cn2 =
n1 !n2 !n3 !
2. Ordered Partitions (identical objects)
(a) The total number of ways of putting n identical objects into r compartments
marked as 1, 2, ...... r, is n r 1Cr 1 , where each compartment may have none
or any number of objects.
We can think of n objects being placed in a row and partitioned by the (r – 1)
vertical lines into r compartments. This is equivalent to permutations of
(n + r – 1) objects out of which n are of one type and (r – 1) of another type.

The required number of permutations are


( n + r - 1)! , which is equal to
n !( r - 1)!
(n + r −1) ( n + r −1)
Cn or C(r −1) .
(b) The total number of ways of putting n identical objects into r compartments is
( n − r )+ (r −1) (n −1)
C(r −1) or C(r −1) , where each compartment must have at least one
object.
In order that each compartment must have at least one object, we first put
one object in each of the r compartments. Then the remaining (n – r) objects
can be placed as in (a) above.
(c) The formula, given in (b) above, can be generalised. If each compartment is
( n − kr ) + (r −1)
supposed to have at least k objects, the total number of ways is C(r −1) ,

where k = 0, 1, 2, .... etc. such that k < n .


r 307
Quantitative Techniques Example 17: 4 couples occupy eight seats in a row at random. What is the probability
for Management
that all the ladies are sitting next to each other?
Solution: Eight persons can be seated in a row in 8! ways.
We can treat 4 ladies as one person. Then, five persons can be seated in a row in 5!
ways. Further, 4 ladies can be seated among themselves in 4! ways.
5!4! 1
\ The required probability = =
8! 14
Example 18: 12 persons are seated at random (i) in a row, (ii) in a ring. Find the
probabilities that three particular persons are sitting together.
Solution:
10!3! 1
(i) The required probability = =
12! 22

9!3! 3
(ii) The required probability = = .
11! 55

Example 19: 5 red and 2 black balls, each of different sizes, are randomly laid down in
a row. Find the probability that
(i) the two end balls are black,
(ii) there are three red balls between two black balls and
(iii) the two black balls are placed side by side.
Solution: The seven balls can be placed in a row in 7! ways.
(i) The black can be placed at the ends in 2! ways and, in-between them, 5 red balls
can be placed in 5! ways.
2!5! 1
\ The required probability = = .
7! 21
(ii) We can treat BRRRB as one ball. Therefore, this ball along with the remaining two
balls can be arranged in 3! ways. The sequence BRRRB can be arranged in 2! 3!
ways and the three red balls of the sequence can be obtained from 5 balls in
5
C3 ways.
3!2!3! 5 1
\ The required probability = ¥ C3 = .
7! 7
(iii) The 2 black balls can be treated as one and, therefore, this ball along with 5 red
balls can be arranged in 6! ways. Further, 2 black ball can be arranged in 2! ways.

6!2! 2
\ The required probability = =
7! 7
Example 20: Each of the two players, A and B, get 26 cards at random. Find the
probability that each player has an equal number of red and black cards.

Solution: Each player can get 26 cards at random in 52 C26 ways.


In order that a player gets an equal number of red and black cards, he should have 13
cards of each colour, note that there are 26 red cards and 26 black cards in
26 26
a pack of playing cards. This can be done in C13 C13 ways. Hence, the required
26
C13 ¥ 26C13
probability = 52 .
308 C26
Example 21: 8 distinguishable marbles are distributed at random into 3 boxes marked Probability

as 1, 2 and 3. Find the probability that they contain 3, 4 and 1 marbles respectively.
Solution: Since the first, second .... 8th marble, each, can go to any of the three boxes in
3 ways, the total number of ways of putting 8 distinguishable marbles into three
boxes is 38.
The number of ways of putting the marbles, so that the first box contains 3 marbles,
8!
second contains 4 and the third contains 1, are
3!4!1!
8! 1 280
\ The required probability = ¥ 8= .
3!4!1! 3 6561
Example 22: 12 'one rupee' coins are distributed at random among 5 beggars A, B, C,
D and E. Find the probability that :
(i) They get 4, 2, 0, 5 and 1 coins respectively.
(ii) Each beggar gets at least two coins.
(iii) None of them goes empty handed.
Solution: The total number of ways of distributing 12 one rupee coins among 5 beggars
12 +5 -1
are C5-1 = 16 C4 = 1820 .
(i) Since the distribution 4, 2, 0, 5, 1 is one way out of 1820 ways, the required probability
1
= .
1820
(ii) After distributing two coins to each of the five beggars, we are left with two coins,
2 + 5-1
which can be distributed among five beggars in C5-1 = 6 C4 = 15 ways.

15 3
\ The required probability = =
1820 364
(iii) No beggar goes empty handed if each gets at least one coin. 7 coins, that are left
after giving one coin to each of the five beggars, can be distributed among five
7 +5 -1
beggars in C5-1 = 11C4 = 330 ways.
330 33
\ The required probability = =
1820 182

10.4 STATISTICAL OR EMPIRICAL DEFINITION OF


PROBABILITY
The scope of the classical definition was found to be very limited as it failed to determine
the probabilities of certain events in the following circumstances :
(i) When n, the exhaustive outcomes of a random experiment is infinite.
(ii) When actual value of n is not known.
(iii) When various outcomes of a random experiment are not equally likely.
(iv) This definition doesn't lead to any mathematical treatment of probability.
In view of the above shortcomings of the classical definition, an attempt was made to
establish a correspondence between relative frequency and the probability of an event
when the total number of trials become su1fficiently large.
309
Quantitative Techniques Definition (R. Von Mises)
for Management
If an experiment is repeated n times, under essentially the identical
conditions and, if, out of these trials, an event A occurs m times, then the probability that
A occurs is given by P(A) = lim m , provided the limit exists.
x →∞ n

This definition of probability is also termed as the empirical definition because the probability
of an event is obtained by actual experimentation.
Although, it is seldom possible to obtain the limit of the relative frequency,
m
the ratio can be regarded as a good approximation of the probability of an event for
n
large values of n.
This definition also suffers from the following shortcomings :
(i) The conditions of the experiment may not remain identical, particularly when the
number of trials is sufficiently large.

(ii) The relative frequency, m , may not attain a unique value no matter how large is the
n
total number of trials.
(iii) It may not be possible to repeat an experiment a large number of times.
(iv) Like the classical definition, this definition doesn't lead to any mathematical treatment
of probability.

10.5 AXIOMATIC OR MODERN APPROACH TO


PROBABILITY
This approach was introduced by the Russian mathematician, A. Kolmogorov in 1930s.
In his book, 'Foundations of Probability' published in 1933, he introduced probability as a
function of the outcomes of an experiment, under certain restrictions. These restrictions
are known as Postulates or Axioms of probability theory. Before discussing the above
approach to probability, we shall explain certain concepts that are necessary for its
understanding.
Sample Space
It is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. Each element of the set is
called a sample point or a simple event or an elementary event. The sample space of
a random experiment is denoted by S and its element are denoted by ei, where i = 1, 2,
...... n. Thus, a sample space having n elements can be written as :
S = {e1, e2, ......, en}.
If a random experiment consists of rolling a six faced die, the corresponding sample
space consists of 6 elementary events. Thus, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Similarly, in the toss of a coin S = {H, T}.
The elements of S can either be single elements or ordered pairs. For example, if two
coins are tossed, each element of the sample space would consist of the set of ordered
pairs, as shown below :
S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
Finite and Infinite Sample Space
A sample space consisting of finite number of elements is called a finite sample space,
while if the number of elements is infinite, it is called an infinite sample space. The
sample spaces discussed so far are examples of finite sample spaces. As an example of
infinite sample space, consider repeated toss of a coin till a head appears. Various elements
of the sample space would be :
310 S = {(H), (T, H), (T, T, H), ...... }.
Discrete and Continuous Sample Space Probability

A discrete sample space consists of finite or countably infinite number of elements. The
sample spaces, discussed so far, are some examples of discrete sample spaces. Contrary
to this, a continuous sample space consists of an uncountable number of elements. This
type of sample space is obtained when the result of an experiment is a measurement on
continuous scale like measurements of weight, height, area, volume, time, etc.
Event
An event is any subset of a sample space. In the experiment of roll of a die, the sample
space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. It is possible to define various events on this sample space,
as shown below :
Let A be the event that an odd number appears on the die. Then A = {1, 3, 5} is a subset
of S. Further, let B be the event of getting a number greater than 4. Then B = {5, 6} is
another subset of S. Similarly, if C denotes an event of getting a number 3 on the die,
then C = {3}.
It should be noted here that the events A and B are composite while C is a
simple or elementary event.
Occurrence of an Event
An event is said to have occurred whenever the outcome of the experiment is an element
of its set. For example, if we throw a die and obtain 5, then both the events A and B,
defined above, are said to have occurred.
It should be noted here that the sample space is certain to occur since the outcome of the
experiment must always be one of its elements.
Definition of Probability (Modern Approach)
Let S be a sample space of an experiment and A be any event of this sample space. The
probability of A, denoted by P(A), is defined as a real value set function which associates
a real value corresponding to a subset A of the sample space S. In order that P(A)
denotes a probability function, the following rules, popularly known as axioms or postulates
of probability, must be satisfied.
Axiom I : For any event A in sample space S, we have 0 £ P(A) £ 1.
Axiom II : P(S) = 1.
Axiom III : If A1, A2, ...... Ak are k mutually exclusive events (i.e., Ai I A j = φ ,
i≠ j
where f denotes a null set) of the sample space S, then
b g k
P A1 U A2 ...... U Ak = ∑ P Ai
i =1
b g
The first axiom implies that the probability of an event is a non-negative
number less than or equal to unity. The second axiom implies that the probability of an
event that is certain to occur must be equal to unity. Axiom III gives a basic rule of
addition of probabilities when events are mutually exclusive.
The above axioms provide a set of basic rules that can be used to find the probability of
any event of a sample space.
Probability of an Event
Let there be a sample space consisting of n elements, i.e., S = {e1, e2, ...... en}. Since the
elementary events e1, e2, ...... en are mutually exclusive, we have, according to axiom
n
III, P ( S ) = ∑ P (ei ) . Similarly, if A = {e1, e2, ...... em} is any subset of S consisting of m
i =1

m
elements, where m £ n, then P ( A) = ∑ P ( ei ) .Thus, the probability of a sample space
i =1
or an event is equal to the sum of probabilities of its elementary events. 311
Quantitative Techniques It is obvious from the above that the probability of an event can be determined if the
for Management
probabilities of elementary events, belonging to it, are known.
The Assignment of Probabilities to various Elementary Events
The assignment of probabilities to various elementary events of a sample space can be
done in any one of the following three ways :
1. Using Classical Definition: We know that various elementary events of a random
experiment, under the classical definition, are equally likely and, therefore, can be
assigned equal probabilities. Thus, if there are n elementary events in the sample
n
space of an experiment and in view of the fact that P ( S ) = ∑ P (ei ) = 1 (from
i =1

axiom II), we can assign a probability equal to 1 to every elementary event or,
n
using symbols, we can write P ei 1
n
c h
for i = 1, 2, .... n.
Further, if there are m elementary events in an event A, we have,

a f 1 1 1
a m timesf bg
m = n A , i. e., number of elements in A
P A
n n
......
n bg
n n S , i. e., number of elements in S
We note that the above expression is similar to the formula obtained under classical
definition.
2. Using Statistical Definition: Using this definition, the assignment of probabilities
to various elementary events of a sample space can be done by repeating an
experiment a large number of times or by using the past records.
3. Subjective Assignment: The assignment of probabilities on the basis of the statistical
and the classical definitions is objective. Contrary to this, it is also possible to have
subjective assignment of probabilities. Under the subjective assignment, the
probabilities to various elementary events are assigned on the basis of the
expectations or the degree of belief of the statistician. These probabilities, also
known as personal probabilities, are very useful in the analysis of various business
and economic problems.
It is obvious from the above that the Modern Definition of probability is a general
one which includes the classical and the statistical definitions as its particular cases.
Besides this, it provides a set of mathematical rules that are useful for further
mathematical treatment of the subject of probability.

Check Your Progress 10.1

1 Explain Exhaustive outcomes with examples.


2. What are combinational methods?
Notes: (a) Write your answer in the space given below.
(b) Please go through the lesson sub-head thoroughly you will get your
answers in it.
(c) This Chek Your Progress will help you to understand the lesson better.
Try to write answers for them, but do not submit your answers to the
university for assessment. These are for your practice only.
_____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
312
Probability
10.6 THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY - I
Theorem 1: P( f ) = 0, where f is a null set.
Proof: For a sample space S of an experiment, we can write S U φ = S .

Taking probability of both sides, we have P S U φ = P S . b g bg


Since S and φ are mutually exclusive, using axiom III, we can write P(S) + P( f ) =
P(S). Hence, P (φ ) = 0 .

Theorem 2: P A d i a f
1 P A , where A is compliment of A.
Proof: Let A be any event in the sample space S. We can write

(
A U A = S or P A U A = P ( S ) )
Since A and A are mutually exclusive, we can write

( )
P ( A) + P A = P ( S ) = 1. Hence, P A = 1 - P ( A) . ( )
Theorem 3: For any two events A and B in a sample space S

( )
P A I B = P ( B) - P ( A I B)
Proof: From the Venn diagram, we can write

( )
B = A I B U ( A I B ) or
( )
P ( B ) = P ÈÎ A I B U ( A I B )˘˚

d
Since A I B and A I B i b g are
mutually exclusive, we have

bg d i b g
P B = P A I B + P AI B

or P d A I B i = P b B g − Pb A I B g .

Similarly, it can be shown that Figure. 10.2

d i bg b
P AI B = P A − P AI B g
Theorem 4: (Addition of Probabilities):
b g bg bg b
P AU B = P A + P B − P AI B g
Proof: From the Venn diagram, given above, we can write

d i b
A U B = A U A I B or P A U B = P A U A I B g d i
d i
Since A and A I B are mutually exclusive, we can write

b g bg d
P AU B = P A + P A I B i
d
Substituting the value of P A I B from theorem 3, we get i
b g bg bg b
P AU B = P A + P B − P AI B g
Remarks :
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e., A I B = φ , then according to theorem 1, we
b g
have P A I B = 0 . The addition rule, in this case, becomes P A U B = P A + P B , b g bg bg
which is in conformity with axiom III. 313
Quantitative Techniques
2. The event A U B denotes the occurrence of either A or B or both. Alternatively, it
for Management
implies the occurrence of at least one of the two events.
3. The event A I B is a compound event that denotes the simultaneous occurrence of
the two events.
4. Alternatively, the event A U B is also denoted by A + B and the event A I B by
AB.
Corollaries:

1. b
From the Venn diagram, we can write P A U B = 1 − P A I B , where P A I B is g d i d i
the probability that none of the events A and B occur simultaneously.

2. b
P exactly one of A and B occurs = P A I B U A I B g d id i
d i d i
= P AI B + P A I B d id
Since A I B U A I B = φ i
= Pb Ag − Pb A I Bg + Pb Bg − Pb A I Bg (using theorem 3)

= Pb A U B g − Pb A I B g (using theorem 4)
3. The addition theorem can be generalised for more than two events. If A, B and C
are three events of a sample space S, then the probability of occurrence of at least
one of them is given by

b g
P AU B UC = P AU B UC b g
bg b g b
= P A + P BUC − P AI BUC g
= P b Ag + P b B U C g − P b A I B g U b A I C g

Applying theorem 4 on the second and third term, we get

bg bg bg b
= P A + P B + P C − P AI B − P AIC − P BIC + P AI BIC g b g b g b g .... (1)
Alternatively, the probability of occurrence of at least one of the three events can
also be written as

b g
P AU B U C = 1− P A I B I Cd i .... (2)
If A, B and C are mutually exclusive, then equation (1) can be written as

b g bg bg bg
P AU B UC = P A + P B + P C .... (3)
If A1, A2, ...... An are n events of a sample space S, the respective equations (1),
(2) and (3) can be modified as
b g b g d i
P A1 U A2 ... U An = ∑ P Ai − ∑ ∑ P Ai I A j + ∑ ∑ ∑ P Ai I A j I Ak d i
b g b g
+ −1 P A1 I A2 I ... I An ( i ≠ j ≠ k , etc. )
n
.... (4)

Pb A U A U ... U A g = 1 − Pd A I A I ... I A i
1 2 n 1 2 n .... (5)

Pb A U A U ... U A g = ∑ Pb A g
n
1 2 n i .... (6)
i =1

(if the events are mutually exclusive)


4. The probability of occurrence of at least two of the three events can be written as

b gb gb g
P AI B U BIC U AIC = P AI B + P B IC + P AIC − b
g b g g b
3Pb A I B I C g + Pb A I B I C g

314
= Pb A I Bg + Pb B I C g + Pb A I C g − 2 Pb A I B I Cg
5. The probability of occurrence of exactly two of the three events can be written as Probability

d id id i b gb gb g
P AI B IC U AI B IC U A I BIC = P AI B U B IC U AIC

− Pb A I B I Cg (using corollary 2)

= Pb A I Bg + Pb B I C g + Pb A I C g − 3 Pb A I B I C g (using corollary 4)

6. The probability of occurrence of exactly one of the three events can be written as

d id
P AI B IC U A I B IC U A I B IC id i = P(at least one of the three events occur)
- P(at least two of the three events occur).

bg bg bg b g b g b
= P A + P B + P C − 2 P A I B − 3P B I C − 2 P A I C + 3 P A I B I C . g b g
Example 23: In a group of 1,000 persons, there are 650 who can speak Hindi, 400 can
speak English and 150 can speak both Hindi and English. If a person is selected at
random, what is the probability that he speaks (i) Hindi only, (ii) English only, (iii) only one
of the two languages, (iv) at least one of the two languages?
Solution: Let A denote the event that a person selected at random speaks Hindi and B
denotes the event that he speaks English.

b g
Thus, we have n(A) = 650, n(B) = 400, n A I B = 150 and n(S) = 1000, where
n(A), n(B), etc. denote the number of persons belonging to the respective event.
(i) The probability that a person selected at random speaks Hindi only, is given by

d
P AI B = i nnbbSAgg − nbnAbIS gBg = 1000
650 150 1
− =
1000 2

(ii) The probability that a person selected at random speaks English only, is given

d
by P A I B = i nnbbBS gg − nbnAbIS gBg = 1000
400 150 1
− =
1000 4

(iii) The probability that a person selected at random speaks only one of the languages,
is given by

d id i bg bg
P AI B U A I B = P A + P B − 2P AI B b g (see corollary 2)

bg bg b
n A + n B − 2n A I B g = 650 + 400 − 300 = 3
nb S g
=
1000 4

(iv) The probability that a person selected at random speaks at least one of the languages,
is given by

b
P AU B = g 650 + 400 − 150 9
1000
=
10

Alternative Method: The above probabilities can easily be computed by the following
nine-square table :
B B Total
A 150 500 650
A 250 100 350
Total 400 600 1000
From the above table, we can write
315
d i
Quantitative Techniques
500 1
for Management (i) P AI B = =
1000 2

(ii) d
P AIB = i 250 1
=
1000 4

(iii) d id
P AI B U A I B = i 500 + 250 3
1000
=
4

(iv) b
P AU B = g 150 + 500 + 250 9
1000
=
10

b
This can, alternatively, be written as P A U B = 1 − P A I B = 1 − g d i 100
=
1000 10
9
.

Example 24: What is the probability of drawing a black card or a king from a well-
shuffled pack of playing cards?
Solution: There are 52 cards in a pack, \ n(S) = 52.
Let A be the event that the drawn card is black and B be the event that it is a king.
We have to find P A U B . b g
Since there are 26 black cards, 4 kings and two black kings in a pack, we have

b g
n(A) = 26, n(B) = 4 and n A U B = 2 Thus, P A U B = 26 + 4 − 2 = 7 b g 52 13
Alternative Method: The given information can be written in the form of the following
table: B B Total
A 2 24 26
A 2 24 26
Total 4 48 52
From the above, we can write

b g
P AU B = 1− P A I B = 1−d i 24 7
=
52 13
Example 25: A pair of unbiased dice is thrown. Find the probability that (i) the sum of
spots is either 5 or 10, (ii) either there is a doublet or a sum less than 6.
Solution: Since the first die can be thrown in 6 ways and the second also in 6 ways,
therefore, both can be thrown in 36 ways (fundamental principle of counting). Since both
the dice are given to be unbiased, 36 elementary outcomes are equally likely.
(i) Let A be the event that the sum of spots is 5 and B be the event that their sum is
10. Thus, we can write
A = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)} and B = {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}
b g
We note that A I B = φ , i.e. A and B are mutually exclusive.

\ By addition theorem, we have b g bg bg


P AU B = P A + P B =
4
+
3
=
36 36 36
7
.

(ii) Let C be the event that there is a doublet and D be the event that the sum is less
than 6. Thus, we can write
C = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)} and
D = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (4, 1)}
b g
Further, C I D = {(1, 1), (2, 2)}

b
By addition theorem, we have P C U D = 6 + 10 − 2 = 7 . g 36 36 36 18
316
Alternative Methods: Probability

(i) It is given that n(A) = 4, n(B) = 3 and n(S) = 36. Also n A I B = 0 . Thus, the b g
corresponding nine-square table can be written as follows :
B B Total
A 0 4 4
A 3 29 32
Total 3 33 36

From the above table, we have P A U B = 1 − 29 = 7 . b g 36 36


(ii) b
Here n(C) = 6, n(D) = 10, n C I D = 2 and n(S) = 36. Thus, we haveg
C C Total
D 2 8 10
D 4 22 26
Total 6 30 36

b g d
Thus, P C U D = 1 − P C I D = 1 − 22 = 7 . i 36 18
Example 26: Two unbiased coins are tossed. Let A1 be the event that the first coin
shows a tail and A2 be the event that the second coin shows a head. Are A1 and A2
b g b
mutually exclusive? Obtain P A1 I A2 and P A1 U A2 . Further, let A1 be the event that g
both coins show heads and A2 be the event that both show tails. Are A1 and A2 mutually
b g
exclusive? Find P A1 I A2 and P A1 U A2 . b g
Solution: The sample space of the experiment is S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
(i) A1 = {(T, H), (T, T)} and A2 = {(H, H), (T, H)}

b g
Also A1 I A2 = {(T, H)}, Since A1n A2 ≠ φ , A1 and A2 are not mutually exclusive.
Further, the coins are given to be unbiased, therefore, all the elementary events are
equally likely.

b g
\ P A1 =
2 1
b g
2 1
= , P A2 = = , P A1 I A2 =
4 2 4 2
1
4
b g
b g
Thus, P A1 U A2 = 1 + 1 − 1 = 3 .
2 2 4 4
(ii) When both the coins show heads; A1 = {(H, H)}
When both the coins show tails; A2 = {(T, T)}
Here A1 I A 2 = φ, ∴ A1 and A 2 are mutually exclusive.

b g
Thus, P A1 U A2 = 1 + 1 = 1 .
4 4 2
Alternatively, the problem can also be attempted by making the following nine-
square tables for the two cases :

(i) A2 A2 Total (ii) A2 A2 Total


A1 1 1 2 0 1 1
A1 1 1 2 1 2 3
Total 2 2 4 1 3 4
317
Quantitative Techniques Theorem 5: Multiplication or Compound Probability Theorem: A compound event
for Management
is the result of the simultaneous occurrence of two or more events. For convenience, we
assume that there are two events, however, the results can be easily generalised. The
probability of the compound event would depend upon whether the events are independent
or not. Thus, we shall discuss two theorems; (a) Conditional Probability Theorem, and
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events.
(a) Conditional Probability Theorem: For any two events A and B in a sample space
S, the probability of their simultaneous occurrence, is given by

P ( A I B ) = P ( A) P ( B / A)

or equivalently =P(B)P(A/B)
Here, P(B/A) is the conditional probability of B given that A has already occurred.
Similar interpretation can be given to the term P(A/B).
Proof: Let all the outcomes of the random experiment be equally likely. Therefore,

b
P AI B = g nbnAbIS gBg = no.no.of elements
of elements in b A I Bg
in sample space

For the event B/A, the sample space is the set of elements in A and out of these the
number of cases favourable to B is given by n A I B . b g
b
\ P B/ A = g nbnAb IAgBg .
If we multiply the numerator and denominator of the above expression by

n(S), we get b
P B/ A = g nbnAb IAgBg × nnbbSS gg = PbPAb IAgBg
or Pb A I Bg = Pb Ag. Pb B / Ag .

The other result can also be shown in a similar way.


Note: To avoid mathematical complications, we have assumed that the elementary events
are equally likely. However, the above results will hold true even for the cases where the
elementary events are not equally likely.
(b) Multiplicative Theorem for Independent Events: If A and B are independent, the
b
probability of their simultaneous occurrence is given by P A I B = P A . P B . g bg bg
b gd i
Proof: We can write A = A I B U A I B .

Since b A I Bg and d A I B i are mutually exclusive, we have

Pb Ag = Pb A I B g + Pd A I B i (by axiom III)

= P ( B ) .P ( A / B ) + P ( B ) .P ( A / B )

If A and B are independent, then proportion of A's in B is equal to proportion of A's in


a
B ’s, i.e., P A / B f Pd A / B i .
Thus, the above equation can be written as
600 × 30 400 × 5
n (B) = + = 200
318
100 100
Substituting this value in the formula of conditional probability theorem, we get Probability

b g bg bg
P AI B = P A . P B .

Corollaries:
1. (i) If A and B are mutually exclusive and P(A).P(B) > 0, then they cannot be
b
independent since P A I B = 0 . g
(ii) If A and B are independent and P(A).P(B) > 0, then they cannot be mutually
b
exclusive since P A I B > 0 . g
2. Generalisation of Multiplicative Theorem :
If A, B and C are three events, then

b g bg b g
P AI B IC = P A . P B / A . P C / AI B b g
Similarly, for n events A1, A2, ...... An, we can write

b g b g b
P A1 I A2 I ... I An = P A1 . P A2 / A1 . P A3 / A1 I A2 g b g
b
... P An / A1 I A2 I ... I An −1 g
Further, if A1, A2, ...... An are independent, we have

b g b g b g
P A1 I A2 I ... I An = P A1 . P A2 .... P An . b g
3. If A and B are independent, then A and B , A and B, A and B are also
independent.

( )
We can write P A I B = P ( A) - P ( A I B ) (by theorem 3)

P A a f Pa A f. PaBf Pa Af 1 PaBf a f di
P A . P B , which shows that A and B are
independent. The other results can also be shown in a similar way.
4. The probability of occurrence of at least one of the events A1, A2, ...... An, is given
(
by P ( A1 U A2 U .... U An ) = 1 - P A1 I A2 I .... I An . )
If A1, A2, ...... An are independent then their compliments will also be independent,
therefore, the above result can be modified as
( ) ( )
P ( A1 U A2 U .... U An ) = 1 - P A1 .P A2 .... P An . ( )
Pair-wise and Mutual Independence
Three events A, B and C are said to be mutually independent if the following conditions
are simultaneously satisfied :

P ( A I B ) = P ( A) .P ( B ) , P ( B I C ) = P ( B ) .P (C ) , P ( A I C ) = P ( A) .P (C )

and P ( A I B I C ) = P ( A) .P ( B ) .P (C ) .

If the last condition is not satisfied, the events are said to be pair-wise independent.
From the above we note that mutually independent events will always be pair-wise
independent but not vice-versa.
Example 27: Among 1,000 applicants for admission to M.A. economics course in a
University, 600 were economics graduates and 400 were non-economics graduates;
30% of economics graduate applicants and 5% of non-economics graduate applicants
obtained admission. If an applicant selected at random is found to have been given
admission, what is the probability that he/she is an economics graduate? 319
Quantitative Techniques Solution: Let A be the event that the applicant selected at random is an economics
for Management
graduate and B be the event that he/she is given admission.

We are given n(S) = 1000, n(A) = 600, n A = 400 ( )


600 ¥ 30
Also, n ( B) = 600 × 30 + 400 × 5 = 200 and n ( A I B ) = = 180
100 100 100

n ( A I B ) 180 9
Thus, the required probability is given by P ( A / B ) = = =
n (B) 200 10

Alternative Method: Writing the given information in a nine-square table, we have :


B B Total
A 180 420 600
A 20 380 400
Total 200 800 1000

180 9
From the above table we can write P ( A / B ) = =
200 10
Example 28: A bag contains 2 black and 3 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random
one after the other without replacement. Obtain the probability that (a) Second ball is
black given that the first is white, (b) First ball is white given that the second is black.
Solution: First ball can be drawn in any one of the 5 ways and then a second ball can be
drawn in any one of the 4 ways. Therefore, two balls can be drawn in 5 × 4 = 20 ways.
Thus, n(S) = 20.
(a) Let A1 be the event that first ball is white and A2 be the event that second is black.
c
We want to find P A2 / A1 . h
First white ball can be drawn in any of the 3 ways and then a second ball can be
drawn in any of the 4 ways, \ n(A1) = 3 × 4 = 12.
Further, first white ball can be drawn in any of the 3 ways and then a black ball can
b
be drawn in any of the 2 ways, \ n A1 I A2 = 3 × 2 = 6 . g
n ( A1 I A2 ) 6 1
Thus, P ( A2 / A1 ) = = = .
n ( A1 ) 12 2

(b) c
Here we have to find P A1 / A2 . h
The second black ball can be drawn in the following two mutually exclusive ways:
(i) First ball is white and second is black or
(ii) both the balls are black.

n ( A1 I A2 ) 6 3
Thus, n(A2) = 3 × 2 + 2 × 1 = 8, ∴ P ( A1 / A2 ) = = = .
n ( A2 ) 8 4
Alternative Method: The given problem can be summarised into the following nine-
square table:
B B Total
A 6 6 12
A 2 6 8
Total 8 12 20
320 The required probabilities can be directly written from the above table.
Example 29: Two unbiased dice are tossed. Let w denote the number on the first die Probability
and r denote the number on the second die. Let A be the event that w + r £ 4 and B be
the event that w + r £ 3. Are A and B independent?
Solution: The sample space of this experiment consists of 36 elements, i.e., n(S) = 36.
Also, A = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2), (3, 1)} and B = {(1, 1), (1, 2), (2, 1)}.
From the above, we can write

6 1 3 1
P ( A) = = , P ( B) = =
36 6 36 12

3 1
Also ( A I B ) = {(1,1),(1, 2),(2,1)} \ P ( A I B ) = =
36 12

b g bgbg
Since P A I B ≠ P A P B , A and B are not independent.

Example 30: It is known that 40% of the students in a certain college are girls and 50%
of the students are above the median height. If 2/3 of the boys are above median height,
what is the probability that a randomly selected student who is below the median height
is a girl?
Solution: Let A be the event that a randomly selected student is a girl and B be the
event that he/she is above median height. The given information can be summarised into
the following table :
B B Total
A 10 30 40
A 40 20 60
Total 50 50 100

30
From the above table, we can write P ( A / B ) = = 0.6 .
50
Example 31: A problem in statistics is given to three students A, B and C, whose
1 1 1
chances of solving it independently are , and respectively. Find the probability
2 3 4
that
(a) the problem is solved.
(b) at least two of them are able to solve the problem.
(c) exactly two of them are able to solve the problem.
(d) exactly one of them is able to solve the problem.
Solution: Let A be the event that student A solves the problem. Similarly, we can define
the events B and C. Further, A, B and C are given to be independent.
(a) The problem is solved if at least one of them is able to solve it. This probability is
1 2 3 3
( ) ( )
given by P ( A U B U C ) = 1 - P A .P ( B ) .P C = 1 - ¥ ¥ =
2 3 4 4
(b) Here we have to find P ( A I B) U ( B I C ) U ( A I C )

b gb gb g bgbg bgbg bgbg


P AI B U B IC U AIC = P A P B + P B P C + P A P C
bgbgbg
− 2P A P B P C

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
= ¥ + ¥ + ¥ - 2. ¥ ¥ =
2 3 3 4 2 4 2 3 4 24 321
Quantitative Techniques
for Management (c) The required probability is given by P A I B I C U A I B I C U A I B I C d id id i
= P ( A).P ( B ) + P ( B ).P (C ) + P ( A).P (C ) - 3P ( A) .P ( B ).P (C )

1 1 1 1 1
= + + - = .
6 12 8 8 4

(d) The required probability is given by P A I B I C U A I B I C U A I B I C d id id i


= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – 2P(A).P(B) – 2P(B).P(C) – 2P(A). P(C)
+ 3 P(A).P(B).P(C)
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11
= + + − − − + = .
2 3 4 3 6 4 8 24
Note that the formulae used in (a), (b), (c) and (d) above are the modified forms of
corollaries (following theorem 4) 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively.
Example 32: A bag contains 2 red and 1 black ball and another bag contains 2 red and
2 black balls. One ball is selected at random from each bag. Find the probability of
drawing (a) at least a red ball, (b) a black ball from the second bag given that ball from
the first is red; (c) show that the event of drawing a red ball from the first bag and the
event of drawing a red ball from the second bag are independent.
Solution: Let A1 be the event of drawing a red ball from the first bag and A2 be the
event of drawing a red ball from the second bag. Thus, we can write:

b g
n A1 I A2 = 2 × 2 = 4,nd A I A i = 2 × 2 = 4, 1 2

nd A I A i = 1 × 2 = 2, nd A I A i = 1 × 2 = 2
1 2 1 2

Also, nb S g = nb A I A g + nd A I A i + nd A I A i + nd A I A i = 12
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

Writing the given information in the form of a nine-square table, we get


A2 A2 Total
A1 4 4 8
A1 2 2 4
Total 6 6 12

(a) The probability of drawing at least a red ball is given by

b g d
n A1 I A2 i = 1− 2 = 5
P A1 U A2 = 1 −
nS bg 12 6

(b) We have to find P A2 / A1 d i


i d nb A g i = 48 = 21
n A IA
d
P A2 / A1 =
1

1
2

(c) A1 and A2 will be independent if P A1 I A2 = P A1 . P A2 b g b g b g


Now P A1 I A2 =b g nb AnbIS gA g = 124 = 13
1 2

n ( A1 ) n ( A2 ) 8
P ( A1 ) .P ( A2 ) =
6 1
. = × =
n ( S ) n ( S ) 12 12 3
322 Hence, A1 and A2 are independent.
Example 33: An urn contains 3 red and 2 white balls. 2 balls are drawn at random. Find Probability
the probability that either both of them are red or both are white.
Solution: Let A be the event that both the balls are red and B be the event that both the
balls are white. Thus, we can write

bg bg bg
n S = 5C2 = 10, n A = 3C2 = 3, n B = 2 C2 = 1, also n A I B = 0b g
b
\ The required probability is P A U B = g nb Angb+Sng b Bg = 310+ 1 = 25
Example 34: A bag contains 10 red and 8 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random.
Find the probability that (a) both of them are red, (b) one is red and the other is black.
Solution: Let A be the event that both the balls are red and B be the event that one is red
and the other is black.

Two balls can be drawn from 18 balls in 18 C2 equally likely ways.

∴ n ( S ) = 18C2 =
18!
= 153
2!16!
10
(a) Two red balls can be drawn from 10 red balls in C2 ways.

10!
∴ n ( A) = 10C2 = = 45
2!8!
n ( A) 45 5
Thus, P ( A) = = =
n ( S ) 153 17

(b) One red ball can be drawn in 10 C1 ways and one black ball can be drawn in 8C1 ways.
80
∴ n ( B) = 10
C1 × 8C1 = 10 × 8 = 80 Thus, P ( B ) =
153
Example 35: Five cards are drawn in succession and without replacement from an
ordinary deck of 52 well-shuffled cards :
(a) What is the probability that there will be no ace among the five cards?
(b) What is the probability that first three cards are aces and the last two cards are
kings?
(c) What is the probability that only first three cards are aces?
(d) What is the probability that an ace will appear only on the fifth draw?
Solution:

48 × 47 × 46 × 45 × 44
(a) P ( there is no ace ) = = 0.66
52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48

 first three card are aces and  4×3×2×4×3


(b) P  = = 0.0000009
 the last two are kings  52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48

4 × 3 × 2 × 48 × 47
(c) P (only first three card are aces) = = 0.00017
52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48

 an ace appears only  48 × 47 × 46 × 45 × 4


(d) P = = 0.059
 on the fifth draw  52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48 323
Quantitative Techniques Example 36: Two cards are drawn in succession from a pack of 52 well-shuffled
for Management
cards. Find the probability that :
(a) Only first card is a king.
(b) First card is jack of diamond or a king.
(c) At least one card is a picture card.
(d) Not more than one card is a picture card.
(e) Cards are not of the same suit.
(f) Second card is not a spade.
(g) Second card is not a spade given that first is a spade.
(h) The cards are aces or diamonds or both.
Solution:
4 × 48
(a) P (only first card is a king ) =
16
= .
52 × 51 221
 first card is a jack of  5 × 51 5
(b) P   = = .
 diamond or a king  52 × 51 52

 at least one card is 40 × 39 7


(c) P   = 1− = .
 a picture card  52 × 51 17

 not more than one card 40 × 39 12 × 40 40 × 12 210


(d) P  = + + = .
 is a picture card  52 × 51 52 × 51 52 × 51 221
52 × 39 13
(e) P (cards are not of the same suit ) = = .
52 × 51 17
13 × 39 39 × 38 3
(f) P (second card is not a spade ) = + = .
52 × 51 52 × 51 4
 second card is not a spade 39 13
(g) P  = = .
 given that first is spade  51 17
 the cards are aces or  16 × 15 20
(h) P  = = .
 diamonds or both  52 × 51 221
Example 37: The odds are 9 : 7 against a person A, who is now 35 years of age, living
till he is 65 and 3 : 2 against a person B, now 45 years of age, living till he is 75. Find the
chance that at least one of these persons will be alive 30 years hence.
Solution:
Note: If a is the number of cases favourable to an event A and a is the number of cases
favourable to its compliment event (a + a = n), then odds in favour of A are a : a and
odds against A are a : a.
a a .
Obviously P ( A) =
a+a
and P A =( )a+a
Let A be the event that person A will be alive 30 years hence and B be the event that
person B will be alive 30 years hence.

∴ P ( A) = and P ( B) =
7 7 2 2
= =
9 + 7 16 3+2 5

b g
We have to find P A U B . Note that A and B are independent.

324 b g
\ P A U B = 7 + 2 − 7 × 2 = 53
16 5 16 5 80
Alternative Method: Probability

b
P AU B = 1− g 9 3 53
× =
16 5 80

bg
Example 38: If A and B are two events such that P A = , P A I B =
2
3
d i 1
6
and

b g
1
b g
P A I B = , find P(B), P A U B , P(A/B), P(B/A), P A U B , P A I B
3
d i d i and Pd B i .
Also examine whether the events A and B are : (a) Equally likely, (b) Exhaustive, (c)
Mutually exclusive and (d) Independent.
Solution: The probabilities of various events are obtained as follows :

bg d i b
P B = P A I B + P AI B = g 1 1 1
+ =
6 3 2

b
P AU B = g 2 1 1 5
+ − =
3 2 3 6

b
P A/ B =g PbPAbIBgBg = 13 × 21 = 23
Pb A I B g 1 3 1
Pb B / Ag =
Pb Ag
= × =
3 2 2

d i d i bg d
P AUB = P A + P B − P AIB = i 1 1 1 2
+ − =
3 2 6 3

d i b
P A I B = 1− P AU B = 1− g 5 1
=
6 6

P ( B ) = 1 − P ( B) = 1 −
1 1
=
2 2
(a) Since P(A) π P(B), A and B are not equally likely events.

(b) b g
Since P A U B ≠ 1 , A and B are not exhaustive events.

(c) Since Pb A I Bg ≠ 0 , A and B are not mutually exclusive.

(d) Since Pb Ag Pb Bg = Pb A I Bg , A and B are independent events.

Example 39: Two players A and B toss an unbiased die alternatively. He who first
throws a six wins the game. If A begins, what is the probability that B wins the game?
Solution: Let Ai and Bi be the respective events that A and B throw a six in Ith toss, i =
1, 2, .... . B will win the game if any one of the following mutually exclusive events
occur: A1 B1 or A1 B1 A2 B2 or A1 B1 A2 B2 A3 B3 , etc.

Thus, P ( B wins) =
5 1 5 5 5 1 5 5 5 5 5 1
× + × × × + × × × × × + ......
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

5   5  5
2 4
 5 1 5
= 1 +   +   + ......  = × =
36   6   6  36  5
2
11
1−  
 6
325
Quantitative Techniques Example 40: A bag contains 5 red and 3 black balls and second bag contains 4 red and
for Management
5 black balls.
(a) If one ball is selected at random from each bag, what is the probability that both of
them are of same colour?
(b) If a bag is selected at random and two balls are drawn from it, what is the probability
that they are of (i) same colour, (ii) different colours?
Solution:

 Probability that ball   Probability that balls 


(a) Required Probability = from both bags are red  + from both bags are black 
   

5 4 3 5 35
= × + × =
8 9 8 9 72
(b) Let A be the event that first bag is drawn so that A denotes the event that second
bag is drawn. Since the two events are equally likely, mutually exclusive and
1
exhaustive, we have P ( A) = P A = ( ) 2
.

(i) Let R be the event that two drawn balls are red and B be the event that they
are black. The required probability is given by

= P ( A )  P ( R / A) + P ( B / A) + P ( A )  P ( R / A ) + P ( B / A )

1 È 5 C2 + 3C2 ˘ 1 È 4 C2 + 5C2 ˘ 1 È10 + 3 ˘ 1 È 6 + 10 ˘ 229


= 2 Í 8C ˙+ Í 9 ˙= Í ˙+ Í ˙=
Î 2 ˚ 2Î C2 ˚ 2 Î 28 ˚ 2 Î 36 ˚ 504
(ii) Let C denote the event that the drawn balls are of different colours. The
required probability is given by

( ) (
P (C ) = P ( A) P (C / A) + P A P C / A )
1  5 × 3  1  4 × 5  1  15 20  275
=  +  = + =
2  8 C2  2  9 C2  2  28 36  504

Example 41: There are two urns U1 and U2. U1 contains 9 white and 4 red balls and U2
contains 3 white and 6 red balls. Two balls are transferred from U1 to U2 and then a ball
is drawn from U2. What is the probability that it is a white ball?
Solution: Let A be the event that the two transferred balls are white, B be the event that
they are red and C be the event that one is white and the other is red. Further, let W be
the event that a white ball is drawn from U2. The event W can occur with any one of the
mutually exclusive events A, B and C.

P (W ) = P ( A) .P (W / A) + P ( B ) P (W / B ) + P (C ) P (W / C )

9
C2 5 4 C2 3 9 ¥ 4 4 57
= 13 ¥ + 13 ¥ + 13 ¥ =
C2 11 C2 11 C2 11 143

Example 42: A bag contains tickets numbered as 112, 121, 211 and 222. One ticket is
drawn at random from the bag. Let Ei (i = 1, 2, 3) be the event that i th digit on the ticket
is
2. Discuss the independence of E1, E2 and E3.
326
Solution: The event E1 occurs if the number on the drawn ticket 211 or 222, therefore, Probability

1 . Similarly 1 1
P ( E1 ) = P ( E2 ) = and P ( E3 ) = .
2 2 2

d i 4
Now P Ei I E j = 1 (i, j = 1, 2, 3 and i π j).

Since Pd E I E i = Pb E g Pd E i for i π j, therefore E , E and E are pair-wise independent.


i j i j 1 2 3

b g b g b g b g
Further, P E1 I E2 I E 3 = 1 ≠ P E1 . P E2 . P E3 , therefore, E 1, E 2 and E3 are not
4
mutually independent.
Example 43: Probability that an electric bulb will last for 150 days or more is 0.7 and
that it will last at the most 160 days is 0.8. Find the probability that it will last between 150
to 160 days.
Solution: Let A be the event that the bulb will last for 150 days or more and B be the
event that it will last at the most 160 days. It is given that P(A) = 0.7 and P(B) = 0.8.
The event A U B is a certain event because at least one of A or B is bound to occur.
b g g b
Thus, P A U B = 1 . We have to find P A I B . This probability is given by

Pb A I Bg = Pb Ag + Pb Bg − Pb A U Bg = 0.7 + 0.8 − 10
. = 0.5

Example 44: The odds that A speaks the truth are 2 : 3 and the odds that B speaks the
truth are 4 : 5. In what percentage of cases they are likely to contradict each other on an
identical point?
Solution: Let A and B denote the respective events that A and B speak truth. It is given

that P ( A) = 2 and P ( B) = 4 .
5 9
The event that they contradict each other on an identical point is given by A I B U A I B , d id i
d i d i
where A I B and A I B are mutually exclusive. Also A and B are independent events.
Thus, we have

d id i d
P AI B U A I B = P AI B + P A I B = P A . P B + P A . P Bi d i bg d i d i bg
2 5 3 4 22
= × + × = = 0.49
5 9 5 9 45
Hence, A and B are likely to contradict each other in 49% of the cases.
2
Example 45: The probability that a student A solves a mathematics problem is and
5
2
the probability that a student B solves it is . What is the probability that (a) the problem
3
is not solved, (b) the problem is solved, (c) Both A and B, working independently of each
other, solve the problem?
Solution: Let A and B be the respective events that students A and B solve the problem.
We note that A and B are independent events.

bag Pd A I B i = Pd A i. Pd B i = 53 × 13 = 15 327
bbg Pb A U Bg = 1 − Pd A I B i = 1 − 15 = 45
Quantitative Techniques
for Management

bcg Pb A I Bg = Pb Ag Pb Bg = 25 × 23 = 154
Example 46: A bag contains 8 red and 5 white balls. Two successive drawings of 3
balls each are made such that (i) balls are replaced before the second trial, (ii) balls are
not replaced before the second trial. Find the probability that the first drawing will give 3
white and the second 3 red balls.
Solution: Let A be the event that all the 3 balls obtained at the first draw are white and
B be the event that all the 3 balls obtained at the second draw are red.
(a) When balls are replaced before the second draw, we have
5 8
C3 5 C3 28
P ( A) = 13
= and P ( B ) = 13
=
C3 143 C3 143

b g
The required probability is given by P A I B , where A and B are independent.
Thus, we have

b g bg bg
P AI B = P A . P B =
5
×
28
=
140
143 143 20449
(b) When the balls are not replaced before the second draw

8
C3 7
We have P ( B / A) = 10
= . Thus, we have
C3 15

b g bg b
P AI B = P A . P B / A = g 5 7
× =
7
143 15 429
Example 47: Computers A and B are to be marketed. A salesman who is assigned the
job of finding customers for them has 60% and 40% chances respectively of succeeding
in case of computer A and B. The two computers can be sold independently. Given that
the salesman is able to sell at least one computer, what is the probability that computer A
has been sold?
Solution: Let A be the event that the salesman is able to sell computer A and B be the
event that he is able to sell computer B. It is given that P(A) = 0.6 and P(B) = 0.4. The
probability that the salesman is able to sell at least one computer, is given by

b g bg bg b g bg bg bg bg
P AU B = P A + P B − P AI B = P A + P B − P A . P B

(note that A and B are given to be independent)


= 0.6 + 0.4 − 0.6 × 0.4 = 0.76
Now the required probability, the probability that computer A is sold given that the salesman
is able to sell at least one computer, is given by

b
P A / AU B = g 0.60
0.76
= 0.789

Example 48: Two men M1 and M2 and three women W1, W2 and W3, in a big industrial
firm, are trying for promotion to a single post which falls vacant. Those of the same
sex have equal probabilities of getting promotion but each man is twice as likely to get
the promotion as any women.
328
(a) Find the probability that a woman gets the promotion. Probability

(b) If M2 and W2 are husband and wife, find the probability that one of them gets the
promotion.
Solution: Let p be the probability that a woman gets the promotion, therefore 2p will be
the probability that a man gets the promotion. Thus, we can write, P(M1) = P(M2) = 2p
and P(W1) = P(W2) = P(W3) = p, where P(Mi) denotes the probability that i th man gets
the promotion (i = 1, 2) and P(W j) denotes the probability that j th woman gets the
promotion.
Since the post is to be given only to one of the five persons, the events M1, M2 , W1, W2
and W3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
b g b g b g b g b g b g
∴ P M1 U M 2 U W1 U W2 U W3 = P M1 + P M 2 + P W1 + P W2 + P W3 = 1
1
⇒ 2 p + 2 p + p + p + p = 1 or p =
7
(a) The probability that a woman gets the promotion

b g b g b g b g
P W1 U W2 U W3 = P W1 + P W2 + P W3 =
3
7
(b) The probability that M2 or W2 gets the promotion

b g b g b g
P M 2 U W2 = P M 2 + P W2 =
3
7
Example 49: An unbiased die is thrown 8 times. What is the probability of getting a six
in at least one of the throws?
Solution: Let Ai be the event that a six is obtained in the ith throw (i = 1, 2, ...... 8).

Therefore, P ( Ai ) = 1 .
6
The event that a six is obtained in at least one of the throws is represented by
b A U A U .... U A g . Thus, we have
1 2 8

Pb A U A U .... U A g = 1 − Pd A I A I .... I A i
1 2 8 1 2 8

Since A1, A2, ...... A8 are independent, we can write

b g d i d i d i FG 5 IJ 8

P A1 U A2 U .... U A8 = 1 − P A1 . P A2 . .... P A8 = 1 −
H 6K .

Example 50: Two students X and Y are very weak students of mathematics and their
chances of solving a problem correctly are 0.11 and 0.14 respectively. If the probability
of their making a common mistake is 0.081 and they get the same answer, what is the
chance that their answer is correct?
Solution: Let A be the event that both the students get a correct answer, B be the event
that both get incorrect answer by making a common mistake and C be the event that
both get the same answer. Thus, we have

P ( A I C ) = P ( X gets correct answer ) .P (Y gets correct answer )

= 0.11 × 0.14 = 0.0154 (note that the two events are independent)
Similarly,

P ( B I C ) = P ( X gets incorrect answer ) × P (Y gets incorrect answer )


× P ( X and Y make a common mistake )
329
= (1 − 0.11)(1 − 0.14 ) × 0.081 = 0.062
Quantitative Techniques
for Management

b gb g bg b g b g b
Further, C = A I C U B I C or P C = P A I C + P B I C , since A I C and B I C g b g
are mutually exclusive. Thus, we have
P (C ) = 0.0154 + 0.0620 = 0.0774

We have to find the probability that the answers of both the students are correct given
that they are same, i.e.,

b g PbPAbCIgCg = 00..0154
P A/C =
0774
= 0199
.

Example 51: Given below are the daily wages (in rupees) of six workers of a factory :
77, 105, 91, 100, 90, 83
If two of these workers are selected at random to serve as representatives, what is the
probability that at least one will have a wage lower than the average?

Solution: The average wage X = 77 + 105 + 91 + 100 + 90 + 83 = 91


6
Let A be the event that two workers selected at random have their wages greater than
or equal to average wage.
3
C2 1
\ P ( A) = 6
=
C2 5

Thus, the probability that at least one of the workers has a wage less than the average
1 4
=1− =
5 5
Example 52: There are two groups of subjects one of which consists of 5 science
subjects and 3 engineering subjects and the other consists of 3 science subjects and 5
engineering subjects. An unbiased die is cast. If the number 3 or 5 turns up, a subject
from the first group is selected at random otherwise a subject is randomly selected from
the second group. Find the probability that an engineering subject is selected ultimately.
Solution: Let A be the event that an engineering subject is selected and B be the event
that 3 or 5 turns on the die. The given information can be summarised into symbols, as
given below :

P(A / B) =
1 3 5
P ( A ) = , P ( A / B ) = , and
3 8 8
To find P(A), we write

bg b g d i bg b g d i d
P A = P AI B + P AI B = P B . P A / B + P B . P A / B i
1 3 2 5 13
= × + × =
3 8 3 8 24
Example 53: Find the probability of obtaining two heads in the toss of two unbiased
coins when (a) at least one of the coins shows a head, (b) second coin shows a head.
Solution: Let A be the event that both coins show heads, B be the event that at least one
coin shows a head and C be the event that second coin shows a head. The sample space
330
and the three events can be written as :
S = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}, A = {(H, H)}, Probability

B = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H)} and C = {(H, H), (T, H)}.

mb
Further, A I B = H , H gr and A I C = mb H , H gr
Since the coins are given to be unbiased, the elementary events are equally likely, therefore

bg
P A =
1
4
, bg
P B =
3
4
, bg
PC =
1
2
, b g b
P AI B = P AIC = g 1
4
(a) We have to determine P (A/B)

b
P A/ B =g PbPAbIBgBg = 41 × 43 = 13
(b) We have to determine P(A/C)

b
P A/C = g PbPAbCIgCg = 41 × 21 = 21
Exercise with Hints:
1. What is the probability of drawing two aces at random from a deck of 52 well-
shuffled cards?
Hint: Two aces can be drawn from four aces in 4 C2 ways.
2. Two cards are drawn at random from a deck of 52 well-shuffled cards. What is
the probability that one of them is an ace and the other is a queen?
Hint: Try as in question 1 above.
3. What is the probability of getting all the four heads in four throws of an unbiased
coin?
Hint: n(S) = 24.
4. What is the probability of getting 5 on each of the two throws of a six faced
unbiased die?
Hint: Try as in question 3 above.
5. Four cards are drawn at random without replacement from a pack of 52 cards.
What is the probability that :
(a) All of them are aces?
(b) All of them are of different suits?
(c) All of them are picture cards or spades or both?
Hint: See example 36.
6. Find the probability of throwing an even number from a single throw of a pair of
unbiased dice.
Hint: An even number is obtained if both dice show either odd or even numbers.
7. A bag contains 50 balls serially numbered from 1 to 50. One ball is drawn at
random from the bag. What is the probability that the number on it is a multiple of
3 or 4?
Hint: The number of serial numbers that are multiple of 3 or 4 are integral part of
50
.
L.C.M . of 3 and 4 331
Quantitative Techniques 8. A bag contains 4 white and 5 red balls. Two balls are drawn in succession at
for Management
random. What is the probability that (a) both the balls are white, (b) both are red,
(c) one of them is red and the other is white?
Hint: See example 34.
9. A bag contains 5 red, 8 white and 3 blue balls. If three balls are drawn at random,
find the probability that (a) all the balls are blue, (b) each ball is of different colour,
(c) the drawn balls are in the order red, white and blue, (d) none of the balls are
white.
Hint: (b) This event is same as that of drawing one ball of each colour.
(c) n(S) = 16 × 15 × 14.
10. 4 cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 well-shuffled cards. Find the
chance that (i) each card is of a different suit, (ii) they consist of a Jack, Queen,
King and an Ace, (iii) they are 4 honours of the same suit.
Hint: Honours of a suit are its Jack, Queen, King and Ace.
11. In how many ways the letters of the following words can be arranged?
MANAGEMENT, ASSESSMENT, COMMITTEE
Hint: See example 13.
12. How many distinct words can be formed from the letters of the word MEERUT?
How many of these words start at M and end at T?
Hint: Fixing M and T, determine the number of permutations of remaining letters.
13. In a random arrangement of letters of the word DROUGHT, find the probability
that vowels come together.
Hint: See example 15.
14. The letters of the word STUDENT are arranged at random. Find the probability
that the word, so formed;
(a) starts with S,
(b) starts with S and ends with T,
(c) the vowels occupy odd positions only,
(d) the vowels occupy even positions only.
Hint: See examples 14 and 15.
15. How many triangles can be formed by joining 12 points in a plane, given that 7
points are on one line.

Hint: No. of triangles = 12


C 3 − 7C 3 .
16. In a random arrangement of 10 members of a committee, find the probability that
there are exactly 3 members sitting between the president and secretary when the
arrangement is done (i) in a row, (ii) in a ring.
Hint: Considering 5 members as one, there are 6 members. No. of permutations
(i) 2! × 8C3 × 3! × 6! , (ii) 2! × 8C3 × 3! × 5!
17. A six digit number is formed by the digits 5, 9, 0, 7, 1, 3; no digit being repeated.
Find the probability that the number formed is (i) divisible by 5, (ii) not divisible
by 5.
Hint: 0 cannot come at the sixth place of a six digit number.
18. If 30 blankets are distributed at random among 10 beggars, find the probability that
a particular beggar receives 5 blankets.
30
Hint: A particular beggar can receive 5 blankets in C5 ways and the remaining
332 9 beggars in 925 ways.
19. A statistical experiment consists of asking 3 housewives, selected at random, if Probability
they wash their dishes with brand X detergent. List the elements of the sale space
S using the letter Y for 'yes' and N for 'no'. Also list the elements of the event : "The
second woman interviewed uses brand X'. Find the probability of this event if it is
assumed that all the elements of S are equally likely to occur.
Hint: The sample space would consist of eight 3-tuples of the type (Y,Y,Y), etc.
20. n persons are sitting in a row. If two persons are picked up at random, what is the
probability that they are sitting adjacent to each other?
Hint: Two adjacent persons can be picked up in (n - 1) ways.
21. A committee of 5 persons is to be formed out of 7 Indians and 5 Japanese. Find the
probability that (a) the committee is represented only by the Indians, (b) there are
at least two Japanese on the committee, (c) there are at least two Japanese and
two Indians on the committee.
Hint: See example 16.
22. 4 letters are placed at random in 4 addressed envelopes. Find the probability that all
the letters are not placed in right envelopes.
Hint: The letters can be placed in their respective envelopes in one way.
23. Find the probability that a family with 4 children has (a) 2 boys and 2 girls, (b) no
boy, (c) at the most two boys, (d) at least a girl. Assume equal probability for boys
and girls.
Hint: (a) The event can occur in 4 C2 mutually exclusive ways each with

probability 14 .
2
24. One child is selected at random from each of the three groups of children, namely,
3 girls and 1 boy, 2 girls and 2 boys, 1 girl and 3 boys. Find the probability of
selecting 1 girl and 2 boys.
Hint: The event can occur in any one of the following mutually exclusive ways : BBG,
BGB, GBB.
25. A can hit a target in 3 out of 4 attempts while B can hit it in 2 out of 3 attempts. If
both of them try simultaneously, what is the probability that the target will be hit?
Hint: Find the probability of hitting the target at least once.
26. A and B played 12 chess matches out of which A won 6 matches, B won 4
matches and 2 resulted in draw. If they decide to play 3 more matches, what is the
probability that (a) A wins all the three matches, (b) two matches end in draw, (c)
B wins at least a match, (d) A wins at least a match, (e) A and B wins alternatively?

2 2 10
Hint: (b) P(two matches end in draw) = × × ×3.
12 12 12
27. A and B who are equally perfect players of badminton, stopped playing a match
when their scores were 12 and 13 respectively. If 15 points are needed to win this
match, what are their respective probabilities of winning?
Hint: A can win in following mutually exclusive ways; AAA, BAAA, ABAA, AABA.
28. A problem in accountancy is given to five students. Their chances of solving it are
1 1 1 1 1
, , , and respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be
2 3 4 5 6
solved?

b g d i d i d i d i d i
Hint: P A U B U C U D U E = 1 − P A . P B . P C . P D . P E . 333
Quantitative Techniques 29. (a) A guard of 12 soldiers is to be formed out of n soldiers. Find the probability
for Management
that (i) two particular soldiers A and B are together on the guard, (ii) three
particular soldiers C, D and E are together on the guard. (iii) Also find n if A
and B are 3 times as often together on the guard as C, D and E.
(b) A has 6 shares in a lottery in which there are 3 prizes and 10 blanks. B has 2
shares in a lottery in which there are 4 prizes and 8 blanks. Which of them
has a better chance to win a prize?
Hint: (a) When A and B are on the guard, remaining 10 soldiers can be selected
n −2
in C10 ways.

10
C6
(b) P ( A) = 1 − 13
.
C6
30. It is 8 to 5 against a person, who is now 40 years old, living till he is 70 and 4 to 3
against a person, now 50 years old, living till he is 80. Find the probability that at
least one of them would be alive 30 years hence.
Hint: See example 37.
31. A candidate is selected for interview for 3 posts. There are 3 candidates for the
first, 4 for the second and 2 for the third post. What are the chance of his getting at
least one post?

Hint: Probability that he gets the first post is 1 , etc.


3
32. A bag contains 6 Rupee and 9 Dollar coins. Two drawings of 4 coins each are
made without replacement. What is the probability that first draw will give 4 Rupee
coins and second 4 dollar coins?
Hint: See example 46.
33. Three tokens marked as 1, 2 and 3 are placed in a bag and one is drawn and
replaced. The operation being repeated three times. What is the probability of
obtaining a total of 6?
Hint: A total of 6 can be obtained if different number is obtained in each operation or 2
is obtained in all the three operations. There are 3! ways of obtaining different
numbers.
34. A certain player, say X, is known to win with probability 0.3 if the track is fast and
with probability 0.4 if the track is slow. On Monday, there is a 0.7 probability of a
fast track. What is the probability that X will win on Monday?
Hint: Let A be the event that the track is fast and B be the event that X wins, then

bg b g d
P B = P AI B + P A I B i
35. The probability that a vacuum-cleaner salesman will succeed in persuading a
customer on the first call is 0.4. If he fails, the probability of success on the second
call is 0.2. If he fails on the first two calls, the probability of success on the third
and last call is 0.1. Find the probability that the salesman makes a sale of vacuum-
cleaner to a customer.
Hint: Try as in exercise 34 above.
36. There are two contractors A and B, for the completion of a project. Contractor A
does the first part of the project and then contractor B, by doing the second part,
completes the project. B cannot start until A has finished. If A finishes on time, B
has 85% chance of completing the project on time. If A doesn't finish on time, then
334
B has only 30% chance of completing the project on time. If A Probability
has 70% chance of finishing his work on time, what is the probability that the
project will be finished on time?

b g d
Hint: Find P A I B + P A I B . i
37. The probability that a person stopping at a petrol pump will ask to have his tyres
checked is 0.12, the probability that he will ask to have his oil checked is 0.29 and
the probability that he will ask to have both of them checked is 0.07.
(i) What is the probability that a person stopping at the petrol pump will have
either tyres or oil checked?
(ii) What is the probability that a person who has tyres checked will also have oil
checked?
(iii) What is the probability that a person who has oil checked will also have tyres
checked?
Hint: See example 32.
38. There are three brands, say X, Y and Z, of an item available in the market. A
consumer chooses exactly one of them for his use. He never buys two or more
brands simultaneously. The probabilities that he buys brands X, Y and Z are 0.20,
0.16 and 0.45 respectively.
(i) What is the probability that he doesn't buy any of the brands?
(ii) Given that the consumer buys some brand, what is the probability that he
buys brand X?

b g
Hint: (i) The required probability = 1 − P X U Y U Z , where X , Y and Z are mutually
exclusive.
39. A person applies for the post of manager in two firms A and B. He estimates that
the probability of his being selected on firm A is 0.75, the probability of being
rejected in firm B is 0.45 and the probability of rejection in at least one of the firms
is 0.55. What is the probability that he will be selected in at least one of the firms?

b g d
Hint: P A I B = 1 − P A U B . i
40. (a) A student is given a true-false examination with 10 questions. If he gets 8 or
more correct answers, he passes the examination. Given that he guesses at
an answer to each question, compute the probability that he passes the
examination.
(b) In a multiple choice question, there are four alternative answers out of which
one or more are correct. A candidate will get marks in the question only if he
ticks all the correct answers. If he is allowed up to three chances to answer
the question, find the probability that he will get marks in the question.
10 10 10
Hint:(a) n(S) = 210. No. of favourable cases is C8 + C9 + C10 .
(b) Total no. of ways in which the student can tick the answers in one attempt
= 24 - 1 (since at least one of the answer is correct, therefore, it is not possible
that he will leave all the answers unticked).
The total no. of ways of selecting three solutions from 15 is 15 C3 . Note that it
will be in the interest of the candidate to select a different solution in each
attempt. Since out of 15 solutions, only one (way of marking the questions) is
correct, therefore, the no. of ways of selecting incorrect solutions is 14 C3 .
14
C3
Hence the required probability is given by 1 - 15
.
C3 335
Quantitative Techniques 41. 200 students were admitted to an under graduate course through an entrance test
for Management
out of which only 150 completed it successfully. On the examination of their
admission data, it was found that 70% of those who passed and 50% of those who
failed had a first division in their senior secondary examination. Find (a) the probability
that a student with first division in the senior secondary examination is successful
in the under graduate course, (b) the probability that a student without first division
in senior secondary examination, is successful in the under graduate course, (c) the
probability that an admitted student is a first divisioner in senior secondary
examination, (d) the probability that an admitted student is unsuccessful in the
under graduate course.
Hint: See example 27.
42. 300 employees of a firm were asked if they would favour increasing their working
day by one hour so that they could have a five day week. The results are given in
the following table :
af
Favour F Disfavour D a f a f
Neutral N
Men Ma f 102 90 48
Women Wa f 42 6 12

Find (a) P(M), (b) P(W), (c) P(F), (d) P(D), (e) P(N), (f) P M I F , bg
(g) PbW I F g , (h) Pb N I M g , (i) PbW I N g , (j) P a F / M f , (k) P aW / F f ,
(l) P a D /W f , (m) P a M / N f , (n) P a N /W f , (o) P b M F g , (p) PbW U Dg ,
(q) Pb M U Dg , (r) Pb F U Dg , (s) Pb M U W g , (t) Pb M U F U Dg .
Hint: See example 27.
43. In a bridge game of playing cards, 4 players are distributed one card each by turn
so that each player gets 13 cards. What is the probability that a specified player
gets a black ace and a king?

Hint: No. of favourable cases are 2 C1 × 4C1 × 46


C11 .
44. A bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Two balls are drawn successively one
after another without replacement. What is the probability that (a) the first ball is
white and the second is black, (b) the first is black and second is white.
Hint: Use conditional probability theorem.
45. (a) What is the probability that out of 3 friends, Ram, Shyam and Mohan, at least
two have the same birthday?
(b) What is the probability that out of a group of 4 persons, all born in the month
of April, at least three have same birthday?
Hint: Suppose that Ram states his birthday, then the probability of Shyam having a
different birthday is 364 and then the probability of Mohan having a different
365

birthday is 363 , etc. The required probability is 1 − 364 × 363 .


365 365 365

46. The probability that a man aged 70 years will die in a year is 2 . Find the probability
3
that out of 5 men A1, A2, A3, A4 and A5, each aged 70 years, A1 will die in a year
and will be the first to die.

Hint: P(A1 dies first out of 5 men) = 1 . Multiply this by the probability that at least one
5
336 of them die in a year.
47. The probability of rain tomorrow is 0.65 and the probability that the temperature Probability
will rise above 35°C is 0.8. The probability there is no rain and temperature remaining
below 35°C is 0.1.
(a) What is the probability of rain if temperature rises above 35°C?
(b) What is the probability that temperature remains below 35°C, given that there
is no rain?
Hint: Try as in exercise 38 above.
48. A bag contains 4 red and 2 black balls. Three men X, Y and Z draw a ball in
succession, without replacement, until a black ball is obtained. Find their respective
chances of getting first black ball.
Hint: X can get first black ball in the following two mutually exclusive ways: B or
WWWB, etc.
49. A and B are two candidates for admission to a certain course. The probability that
A is selected is 0.80 and the probability that both A and B are selected is at the
most 0.25. Is it possible that probability of selection of B is 0.50?

b
Hint: P A U B ≤ 1 .g
50. Delhi has three independent reserved sources of electric power to use to prevent a
blackout in the event that its regular source fails. The probability that any reserved
source is available when its regular source fails is 0.7. What is the probability of not
having a blackout if the regular source fails?
Hint: The required probability = 1 - the probability that power is not available from any
of the reserved sources.
51. In a locality, out of 5,000 people residing, 1,200 are above 30 years of age and 3,000
are females. Out of 1,200, who are above 30 years, 200 are females. If a person
selected at random is a female, what is the probability that she is above 30 years of
age?
Hint: See example 27.
1
52. The probability that both the events A and B occur simultaneously is and the
5
4
probability of occurrence of neither of them is . Find the probabilities P(A) and
15
P(B) on the assumption that the events are independent.

b g d
Hint: Let P(A) = x and P(B) = y. Use the equation 1− P A U B = P A I B to find i
2 2
x + y. Find x – y from it by using the equation (x – y) = (x + y) – 4xy.
53. Two factories A and B manufacture the same machine part. Each part is classified
as having 0, 1, 2 or 3 manufacturing defects. The joint probabilities are as follows:
Number of defects
0 1 2 3
Factory A 0.1250 0.0625 0.1875 0.1250
Factory B 0.0625 0.0625 0.1250 0.2500
(i) A part is observed to have no defects. What is the probability that it was
produced by factory A?
(ii) A part is known to have been produced by factory A. What is the probability
that the part has no defects?
(iii) A part is known to have two or more defects. What is the probability that it
was manufacture by factory A? 337
Quantitative Techniques (iv) A part is known to have one or more defects. What is the probability that it
for Management
was manufactured by factory B?
Hint: See example 30.
54. A man is dealt 4 spade cards from an ordinary pack of 52 cards. If he is given
three more cards, find the probability that at least one of the additional cards is also
a spade.
Hint: The probability that no spade is obtained from the remaining 48 cards
39
C3
is 48
.
C3
55. An unbiased die is thrown three times. Find the probability of (a) throwing 4 on the
first die if the sum of numbers obtained in three throws is 15,
(b) obtaining a sum of 15 when first die shows 4.
Hint: (a) There are 10 ways of obtaining the sum 15 out of which 2 are favourable,
(b) there are 36 cases in which first die shows 4, out of which only two are
favourable.
56. A committee of 4 has to be formed from among 3 economists, 4 engineers, 2
statisticians and 1 doctor.
(i) What is the probability that each of the four professions are represented on
the committee?
(ii) What is the probability that the committee consists of doctor and at least one
economist?
Hint: (ii) The required probability is obtained by finding the probabilities of the following
mutually exclusive events : {1 doc, 1 eco, 2 others}, {1 doc, 2 eco, 1 other} and
{1 doc, 3 eco}.
57. Six persons toss a coin turn by turn. The game is won by the player who first
throws a head. Find the probability of success of the fifth player.
Hint: See example 39.
58. Find the probability that an assessee files his tax return and cheats on it, given that
70% of all the assessee files returns and 20%, of those who file, cheat.
Hint: See example 27.
59. Two persons A and B throw three unbiased dice. If A throws 14, find B's chances
of throwing a higher number.
Hint: The event that A throws 14 is independent of the event that B throws a higher
number.
60. A is one of 6 horses entered for a race and is to be ridden by one of the jockeys B
and C. It is 2 : 1 that B rides A, in which case all the horses are equally likely to
win; if C rides A, his chances are trebled; what are the odds against his winning?
1
Hint: P(A wins given that he is ridden by jockey B) =
6
3
P(A wins given that he is ridden by jockey C) =
6
61. What is the probability that over a two day period the number of requests would
either be 11 or 12 if at a motor garage the records of service requests alongwith
their probabilities are given below?
Daily demand : 5 6 7
Probability : 0. 25 0.65 0.10
338 Hint: 11 requests can occur in 2 ways and 12 requests in 3 ways.
62. The probability that T.V. of a company fails during first month of its use is Probability
0.02. Of those that do not fail during first month, the probability of failure in the
next five months is 0.01. Of those that do not fail during the first six months,
the probability of failure by the end of the first year is 0.001. The company
replaces, free of charge, any set that fails during its warranty period. If 2,000
sets are sold, how many will have to be replaced if the warranty period is (a)
six months, (b) one year?
Hint: Probability that a set fails during first year = 0.02 + 0.98 × 0.01 + 0.9902 × 0.001.
63. A salesman has 60% chances of making sales to each customer. The behaviour of
each successive customer is assumed to be independent. If two customers A and
B enter, what is the probability that the salesman will make sales to A or B?

b g d
Hint: P A U B = 1 − P A I B . i
64. A box contains 24 bulbs out of which 4 are defective. A customer draws a sample
of 3 bulbs at random in succession and rejects the box if the sample contains one or
more defectives. What is the probability that the box is rejected?
Hint: The box will be rejected if the sample contains at least one defective.

10.7 THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY - II


Theorem 5: (Bayes' Theorem or Inverse Probability Rule): The probabilities assigned
to various events on the basis of the conditions of the experiment or by actual
experimentation or past experience or on the basis of personal judgement are called
prior probabilities. One may like to revise these probabilities in the light of certain
additional or new information. This can be done with the help of Bayes' Theorem, which
is based on the concept of conditional probability. The revised probabilities, thus obtained,
are known as posterior or inverse probabilities. Using this theorem it is possible to
revise various business decisions in the light of additional information.
Bayes' Theorem
If an event D can occur only in combination with any of the n mutually exclusive and
exhaustive events A1, A2, ...... An and if, in an actual observation, D is found to have
occurred, then the probability that it was preceded by a particular event Ak is given by

P ( Ak ).P ( D / Ak )
P ( Ak / D ) = n

∑ P ( A ).P ( D / A )
i =1
i i

Proof: Since A1, A2, ...... An are n exhaustive events, therefore,


S = A 1 U A 2 ...... U A n .

Since D is another event that can occur in combination with any of the mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events A1, A2, ...... An, we can write

b gb
D = A1 I D U A2 I D U ...... U An I D g b g
Taking probability of both sides, we get

bg b g b g b g
P D = P A1 I D + P A2 I D + ...... + P An I D

We note that the events b A I Dg, b A I Dg , etc. are mutually exclusive.


1 2

b g n
b g
P D = ∑ P Ai I D = ∑ P Ai . P D / Ai
i =1
n

i =1
b g b g .... (1)
339
Quantitative Techniques The conditional probability of an event Ak given that D has already occurred, is given by
for Management

b
P Ak / D = g Pb APb DIgDg = Pb A gP. Pb Db Dg / A g
k k k
.... (2)

Substituting the value of P(D) from (1), we get

P ( Ak ) .P ( D / Ak )
P ( Ak / D ) = n

∑ P ( A ) .P ( D / A )
i =1
i i
.... (3)

Example 54: A manufacturing firm purchases a certain component, for its manufacturing
process, from three sub-contractors A, B and C. These supply 60%, 30% and 10% of
the firm's requirements, respectively. It is known that 2%, 5% and 8% of the items
supplied by the respective suppliers are defective. On a particular day, a normal shipment
arrives from each of the three suppliers and the contents get mixed. A component is
chosen at random from the day's shipment :
(a) What is the probability that it is defective?
(b) If this component is found to be defective, what is the probability that it was supplied
by (i) A, (ii) B, (iii) C ?
Solution: Let A be the event that the item is supplied by A. Similarly, B and C denote the
events that the item is supplied by B and C respectively. Further, let D be the event that
the item is defective. It is given that :
P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3, P(C) = 0.1, P(D/A) = 0.02
P(D/B) = 0.05, P(D/C) = 0.08.
(a) We have to find P(D)
From equation (1), we can write

P ( D ) = P ( A I D ) + P ( B I D ) + P (C I D )

= P ( A) P ( D / A) + P ( B ) P ( D / B ) + P (C ) P ( D / C )
= 0.6 × 0.02 + 0.3 × 0.05 + 0.1 × 0.08 = 0.035
(b) (i) We have to find P(A/D)
P ( A ) P ( D / A) 0.6 × 0.02
P ( A / D) = = = 0.343
P (D) 0.035

P ( B) P ( D / B) 0.3 × 0.05
Similarly, (ii) P ( B / D ) = = = 0.429
P ( D) 0.035

P (C ) P ( D / C ) 0.1 × 0.08
and (iii) P (C / D ) = = = 0.228
P (D) 0.035
Alternative Method: The above problem can also be attempted by writing various
probabilities in the form of following table :
A B C Total

D
b
P AI D g b P BID g b P CID g 0.035
= 0.012 = 0.015 = 0.008
D d
P AI D i d P BID i d P CID i 0.965
= 0.588 = 0.285 = 0.092
340 Total 0.600 0.300 0100
. 1000
.
b g
Probability
0.012
Thus P A / D = etc.
0.035
Example 55: A box contains 4 identical dice out of which three are fair and the fourth
is loaded in such a way that the face marked as 5 appears in 60% of the tosses. A die is
selected at random from the box and tossed. If it shows 5, what is the probability that it
was a loaded die?
Solution: Let A be the event that a fair die is selected and B be the event that the loaded
die is selected from the box.

Then, we have P ( A) = 3 and P ( B ) = 1 .


4 4
Further, let D be the event that 5 is obtained on the die, then

1 6
P ( D / A) = and P ( D / B ) =
6 10
3 1 1 6 11
Thus, P(D) = P(A).P(D/A) + P(B).P(D/B) = × + × =
4 6 4 10 40
We want to find P(B/D), which is given by

b
P B/D = g PbPBbIDgDg = 41 × 106 × 4011 = 116
Example 56: A bag contains 6 red and 4 white balls. Another bag contains 3 red and 5
white balls. A fair die is tossed for the selection of bag. If the die shows 1 or 2, the first
bag is selected otherwise the second bag is selected. A ball is drawn from the selected
bag and is found to be red. What is the probability that the first bag was selected?
Solution: Let A be the event that first bag is selected, B be the event that second bag is
selected and D be the event of drawing a red ball.
Then, we can write
1 2 6 3
P ( A) = , P ( B ) = , P ( D / A) = , P ( D / B ) =
3 3 10 8

Further, P ( D ) = 1 × 6 + 2 × 3 = 9 .
3 10 3 8 20
b
∴ P A/ D = g PbPAbIDgDg = 13 × 106 × 209 = 49
Example 57: In a certain recruitment test there are multiple-choice questions. There
are 4 possible answers to each questio n out of which only one is correct. An intelligent
student knows 90% of the answers while a weak student knows only 20% of the answers.
(i) An intelligent student gets the correct answer, what is the probability that he was
guessing?
(ii) A weak student gets the correct answer, what is the probability that he was guessing?
Solution: Let A be the event that an intelligent student knows the answer, B be the
event that the weak student knows the answer and C be the event that the student gets
a correct answer.

(i) d i
We have to find P A /C . We can write

(
P AIC )= ( ) ( )
P A P C/A
(
P A/C = ) P (C ) P ( A ) P (C / A ) + P ( A) P (C / A)
.... (1)
341
Quantitative Techniques

It is given that P(A) = 0.90, P C / A = 1 = 0.25 and P (C / A) = 1.0


for Management
(4
)
From the above, we can also write P A = 0.10 ( )
Substituting these values, we get

0.10 × 0.25
P( A / C) =
0.025
= = 0.027
0.10 × 0.25 + 0.90 × 1.0 0.925

(ii) d i
We have to find P B /C . Replacing A by B , in equation (1), we can get this
probability.
( )
It is given that P(B) = 0.20, P C / B = 0.25 and P (C / B ) = 1.0

From the above, we can also write P B = 0.80 ( )


0.80 ¥ 0.25 0.20
Thus, we get P ( B / C ) = = = 0.50
0.80 ¥ 0.25 + 0.20 ¥ 1.0 0.40
Example 58: An electronic manufacturer has two lines A and B assembling identical
electronic units. 5% of the units assembled on line A and 10%of those assembled on line
B are defective. All defective units must be reworked at a significant increase in cost.
During the last eight-hour shift, line A produced 200 units while the line B produced 300
units. One unit is selected at random from the 500 units produced and is found to be
defective. What is the probability that it was assembled (i) on line A, (ii) on line B?
Answer the above questions if the selected unit was found to be non-defective.
Solution: Let A be the event that the unit is assembled on line A, B be the event that it
is assembled on line B and D be the event that it is defective.
Thus, we can write
2 3
P ( A) = , P ( B ) = , P ( D / A) = 5 and P ( D / B ) = 10
5 5 100 100
Further, we have

b
P AI D = g 2
×
5
=
5 100 50
1 and 3 10
P BID = × b=
3
5 100 50
g
The required probabilities are computed form the following table:
A B Total
1 3 4
D
50 50 50
19 27 46
D
50 50 50
20 30
Total 1
50 50
From the above table, we can write

P ( A / D) = = , P ( B / D) =
1 50 1 3 50 3
× × =
50 4 4 50 4 4

P ( A / D) = , P ( B / D) =
19 50 19 27 50 27
× = × =
342 50 46 46 50 46 46
Exercise with Hints: Probability

1. An insurance company insured 2,000 scooter drivers, 4,000 car drivers and 6,000
truck drivers. The probability of an accident is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 in the respective
category. One of the insured driver meets an accident. What is the probability that
he is a scooter driver?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.
2. When a machine is set correctly, it produces 25% defectives, otherwise it produces
60% defectives. From the past knowledge and experience, the manufacturer knows
that the chance that the machine is set correctly or wrongly is 50 : 50. The machine
was set before the commencement of production and 1 piece was taken out and
found to be defective. What is the probability of the machine set up being correct?
If the selected piece was found to be non-defective, what is the probability of the
machine set up being wrong?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.
3. Each of the three identical jewellery boxes has 2 drawers. In each drawer of the
first box there is a gold watch. In each drawer of the second box there is a silver
watch. In one drawer of the third box there is a gold watch while in the other
drawer there is a silver watch. If we select a box at random, open one of the
drawers and find it to contain a silver watch, what is the probability that the other
drawer has a gold watch?

1
Hint: P ( B1 ) = P ( B2 ) = P ( B3 ) = 1 , P ( S / B1 ) = 0, P ( S / B2 ) = 1, P ( S / B3 ) = .
3 2
4. In a factory producing bolts, Machines A, B and C manufacture 25%, 35% and
40% of total output. Of their output, 5%, 4% and 2% are defective respectively. A
bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the
probability that it was manufactured by machine A?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.
5. Consider a population of consumers consisting of two types. The upper class of
consumers comprise 35% of the population and each member has a probability 0.8
of purchasing brand A of a product. Each member of the rest of the population has
a probability 0.3 of purchasing brand A of the product. A consumer, chosen at
random, is found to be buyer of brand A. What is the probability that the buyer
belongs to the middle and lower class of consumers?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.
6. At an electric plant, it is known from the past experience that the probability is 0.86
that new worker who has attended the company's training programme will meet
his production quota and that the corresponding probability is 0.35 for a new worker
who has not attended the company's training programme. If 80% of the new workers
attend the training programe, what is the probability that new worker will meet his
production quota?
Hint: Apply P ( D ) = P ( A) .P ( D / A) + P ( B ) .P ( D / B )

7. A talcum powder manufacturing company had launched a new type of


advertisement. The company estimated that a person who comes across the
advertisement will buy their product with a probability of 0.7 and those who does
not see the advertisement will buy the product with a probability of 0.3. If in an
area of 1,000 people, 70% had come across the advertisement, what is the probability
that a person who buys the product (a) has not come across the advertisement (b)
has come across the advertisement?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule. 343
Quantitative Techniques 8. There are two boxes, of identical appearance, each containing 4 sparkplugs. It is
for Management
known that box I contains only one defective sparkplug, while all the four sparkplugs
of box II are non-defective. A sparkplug is drawn at random from a box, selected
at random, is found to be non-defective. What is the probability that it came from
box I?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.
9. A man has 5 one rupee coins and one of them is known to have two heads. He
takes out a coin at random and tosses it 5 times; it always falls head upward. What
is the probability that it is a coin with two heads?
Hint: Apply Bayes' Rule.

Check Your Progress 10.2

1 Give Statistical or Empirical Definition of Probablity?


2. Explain Permutation with restrictions.
Notes: (a) Write your answer in the space given below.
(b) Please go through the lesson sub-head thoroughly you will get your
answers in it.
(c) This Chek Your Progress will help you to understand the lesson better.
Try to write answers for them, but do not submit your answers to the
university for assessment. These are for your practice only.
_____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________

10.8 LET US SUM UP


Probability distributions are a fundamental concept in statistics. They are used both on a
theoretical level and a practical level. Formally, a probability is a bundle of four things: a
universe which is a set of all possible results, a number which is an extension of a
Boolean truth value, a constraint which matches the logical law of the excluded middle
along with the few operations an arithmetical operations correspond to the standard
logical operation of Boolean logic.
At last we can say that a probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event. It can be
elucidate as a decimal or a percentage. Every probability must be between 0 and 1
(100%) inclusive P=0 indicate an impossible event, P=1 or 100% indicates a certainty
1. (a) The number of permutations of n objects taking n at a time are n!

n!
The number of permutations of n objects taking r at a time, are Pr = (n − r )!
n
(b)

(c) The number of permutations of n objects in a circular order are (n – 1)!


(d) The number of permutations of n objects out of which n1 are alike, n2 are
n!
alike, ...... nk are alike, are n !n ! ... n !
344 1 2 k
(e) The number of combinations of n objects taking r at a time are Probability

n!
n
Cr =
r !( n − r )!
2. (a) The probability of occurrence of at least one of the two events A and B is
b g bg bg b
given by : P A U B = P A + P B − P A I B = 1 − P A I B . g d i
(b) The probability of occurrence of exactly one of the events A or B is given by:
d i d i
P A I B + P A I B or P A U B − P A I Bb g b g
3. (a) The probability of simultaneous occurrence of the two events A and B is
b g bg b bg b g g
given by: P A I B = P A . P B / A or = P B . P A / B

(b) If A and B are independent Pb A I Bg = Pb Ag. Pb Bg .


4. Bayes' Theorem :

P ( Ak ) .P ( D / Ak )
P ( Ak / D ) = n
, (k = 1,2, ...... n)
∑ P ( A ) .P ( D / A )
i =1
i i

Here A1, A2, ...... An are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.

10.9 LESSON-END ACTIVITY


Apply the concept of probability in predicting the sensex in different stock exchanges
like National Stock Exchange, Delhi Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock Exchange.

10.10 KEYWORDS
Probability
Event
Outcome
Occurrence
Combination
Inverse probability

10.11 QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION


1. Fill in the blank
(a) The theory of probability is a study of ....................... or .......................
experiments.
(b) ....................... is a arrangement of a given number of objects in a definite
order.
(c) Counting techniques are often helpful in ....................... of total no. of
outcomes.
(d) Modern approach was introduced by ....................... mathematical.
(e) Bayes' Theorem is also called .......................
2. Distinguish between
(a) Favourable outcomes and Exhaustive outcomes
345
Quantitative Techniques (b) Permutation and Combination
for Management
(c) Prior possibilities or Inverse possibilities
3. Write True or False against each of the statement:
(a) It is not possible to predetermine the outcome association with a particular
experimentation.
(b) The total no. of permutations of n distinct objects is n!
(c) Each element of the set is called sample point.
(d) A compound event is simultaneous occurrence of only two events.
(e) The assignment of probabilities on basis of statistical and classical events is
objective.

10.12 TERMINAL QUESTIONS


1. Define the term 'probability' by (a) The Classical Approach, (b) The Statistical
Approach. What are the main limitations of these approaches?
2. Discuss the axiomatic approach to probability. In what way it is an improvement
over classical and statistical approaches?
3. Distinguish between objective probability and subjective probability. Give one
example of each concept.
4. State and prove theorem of addition of probabilities for two events when
(a) they are not independent, (b) they are independent.
5. Explain the meaning of conditional probability. State and prove the multiplication
rule of probability of two events when (a) they are not independent, (b) they are
independent.
6. Explain the concept of independence and mutually exclusiveness of two events A
and B. If A and B are independent events, then prove that A and B are also
independent.

bg bg b
For two events A and B it is given that P A = 0.4, P B = p, P A U B = 0.6 g
(i) Find the value of p so that A and B are independent.
(ii) Find the value of p so that A and B are mutually exclusive.
7. Explain the meaning of a statistical experiment and corresponding sample space.
Write down the sample space of an experiment of simultaneous toss of two coins
and a die.
8. State and prove Bayes' theorem on inverse probability.
9. What is the probability of getting exactly two heads in three throws of an unbiased
coin?
10. What is the probability of getting a sum of 2 or 8 or 12 in single throw of two
unbiased dice?
11. Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability
that the first is a king and second is a queen?
12. What is the probability of successive drawing of an ace, a king, a queen and a jack
from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards? The drawn cards are not replaced.
13. 5 unbiased coins with faces marked as 2 and 3 are tossed. Find the probability of
346
getting a sum of 12.
14. If 15 chocolates are distributed at random among 5 children, what is the probability Probability
that a particular child receives 8 chocolates?
15. A and B stand in a ring with 10 other persons. If arrangement of 12 persons is at
random, find the chance that there are exactly three persons between A and B.
16. Two different digits are chosen at random from the set 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Find the
probability that sum of two digits exceeds 13.
17. From each of the four married couples one of the partner is selected at random.
What is the probability that they are of the same sex?
18. A bag contains 5 red and 4 green balls. Two draws of three balls each are done
with replacement of balls in the first draw. Find the probability that all the three
balls are red in the first draw and green in the second draw.
19. Two die are thrown two times. What is the probability of getting a sum 10 in the
first and 11 in the second throw?
20. 4 cards are drawn successively one after the other without replacement. What is
the probability of getting cards of the same denominations?
21. A bag contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Two balls are drawn one after another
without replacement. What is the probability that first ball is white and second is
black or first is black and second is white?
22. A bag contains 4 white and 3 red balls. Another bag contains 3 white and 5 red
balls. One ball is drawn at random from each bag. What is the probability that (a)
both balls are white, (b) both are red, (c) one of them is white and the other is red?
23. What is the probability of a player getting all the four aces, when playing cards are
uniformly distributed among the four players?
24. A bag contains 10 white and 6 red balls. Two balls are drawn one after another
with replacement. Find the probability that both balls are red.
25. Three persons A, B and C successively draw one card from a pack of 52 cards
with replacement of the card drawn earlier. The first to obtain a card of spade
wins. What are their respective chances of winning?
26. A bag contains 6 red and 4 green balls. A ball is drawn at random and replaced and
a second ball is drawn at random. Find the probability that the two balls drawn are
of different colours.
27. The letters of the word GANESHPURI are arranged at random. Find the probability
that in the word, so formed;
(a) The letter G always occupies the first place.
(b) The letter P and I respectively occupy first and last places.
(c) The vowels are always together.
(d) The letters E, H, P are never together.
(e) The vowels always occupy even places (i.e., 2nd, 4th, etc.)
28. 5-letter words are formed from the letters of the word ORDINATES. What is the
probability that the word so formed consists of 2 vowels and 3 consonants?
29. Maximum number of different committees are formed out of 100 teachers, including
principal, of a college such that each committee consists of the same number of
members. What is the probability that principal is a member of any committee?
30. Letters of the word INTERMEDIATE are arranged at random to form different
words. What is the probability that : 347
Quantitative Techniques (a) First letter of the word is R?
for Management
(b) First letter is M and last letter is E?
(c) All the vowels come together?
(d) The vowels are never together?
Hint: (d) The event will occur if the letters are arranged as VCVCVCVCVCVCV
where V and C denote vowels and consonants respectively. 6 places for vowels
can be chosen in 7 C6 .
31. Five persons entered the lift cabin on the ground floor of an 8-floor building. Suppose
that each of them independently and with equal probability can leave the floor
beginning with first. Find out the probability of all the persons leaving at different
floors.
Hint: There are 7 floors along with ground floor.
32. A team of first eleven players is to be selected at random from a group of 15
players. What is the probability that (a) a particular player is included, (b) a particular
player is excluded?
33. Out of 18 players of a cricket club there are 2 wicket keepers, 5 bowlers and rest
batsmen. What is the probability of selection of a team of 11 players including one
wicket keeper and at least 3 bowlers?
34. Four persons are selected at random from a group consisting of 3 men, 2 women
and 4 children. Find the chance that exactly 2 of them are children.
35. A committee of 6 is chosen from 10 men and 7 women so as to contain at least 3
men and 2 women. Find the probability that 2 particular women don't serve on the
same committee.
36. If n persons are seated around a round table, find the probability that in no two
ways a man has the same neighbours.
37. 6 teachers, of whom 2 are from science, 2 from arts and 2 from commerce, are
seated in a row. What is the probability that the teachers of the same discipline are
sitting together?

38 (a) d i
If P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.4 and P A U B = 0.7 , find P(A/B) and P A U B , b g
where A is compliment of A. State whether A and B are independent.

(b) d
If P ( A) = 1 , P ( B ) = 1 , P ( A / B ) = 1 , find P(B/A) and P B / A . i
3 2 6
(c) If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive events, find P(B) if

1 1
P (C ) = P ( A) = P ( B ) .
3 2
39. Let A be the event that a business executive selected at random has stomach ulcer
and B be the event that he has a heart disease. Interpret the following events :

b g
( i) A c U A, ( ii) A c I A, ( iii) A c I B , ( iv) A I B c , ( v) A I B ,
c

where c stands for compliment.


40. Let A, B and C be three events. Write down the following events in usual set
notations :
(i) A and B occur together, (ii) Both A and B occur but not C, (iii) all the three
348 events occur, (iv) at least one event occur and (v) at least two events occur.
41. The records of 400 examinees are given below : Probability

Educational Qualification
Score Total
B. A. B. Sc. B. Com.

Below 50 90 30 60 180
Between 50 and 60 20 70 70 160
Above 60 10 30 20 60
Total 120 130 150 400

If an examinee is selected at random from this group, find


(i) the probability that he is a commerce graduate,
(ii) the probability that he is a science graduate, given that his score is above 60
and
(iii) the probability that his score is below 50, given that he is B.A.

di
42. It is given that P ( A + B) = 5 , P ( AB) = 1 and P ( B ) = 1 , where P B stands for
6 3 2
the probability that event B doesn't happen. Determine P(A) and P(B). Hence,
show that the events A and B are independent.
43. A can solve 75% of the problems in accountancy while B can solve 70% of the
problems. Find the probability that a problem selected at random from an
accountancy book;
(a) will be solved by both A and B,
(b) will be solved by A or B,
(c) will be solved by one of them.
44. (a) One card is drawn from each of two ordinary sets of 52 cards. Find the
probability that at least one of them will be the ace of hearts.
(b) Two cards are drawn simultaneously from a set of 52 cards. Find the
probability that at least one of them will be the ace of hearts.
45. An article manufactured by a company consists of two parts X and Y. In the
process of manufacture of part X, 9 out of 104 parts may be defective. Similarly, 5
out of 100 are likely to be defective in the manufacture of part Y. Compute the
probability that the assembled product will not be defective.
46. A salesman has 80% chance of making a sale to each customer. The behaviour of
each customer is independent. If two customers A and enter, what is the probability
that the salesman will make a sale to A or B?
2
47. A problem in economics is given to 3 students whose chances of solving it are ,
3
3 4
and respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?
4 5
48. A man and a woman appear in an interview for two vacancies in the same post.
1 1
The probability of man's selection is and that of woman's selection is . What is
4 3
the probability that
(a) both of them will be selected?
(b) only one of them will be selected?
(c) none of them will be selected?
(d) at least one of them will be selected?
349
Quantitative Techniques 49. What is the chance that a non-leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays?
for Management
50. In a group of equal number of men and women 15% of men and 30% of women
are unemployed. What is the probability that a person selected at random is
employed?
51. An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of four shots at enemy plane moving
away from it. The probabilities of hitting the plane at first, second, third and fourth
shot are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. What is the probability that the gun hits
the plane?
52. A piece of equipment will function only when all the three components A, B, C are
working. The probability of A failing during one year is 0.15 and that of B failing is
0.05 and of C failing is 0.10. What is the probability that the equipment will fail
before the end of the year?
53. A worker attends three machines each of which operates independently of the
other two. The probabilities of events that machines will not require operator's
intervention during a shift are p1 = 0.4, p2 = 0.3 and p3 = 0.2. Find the probability
that at least one machine will require worker's intervention during a shift.
54. The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and the probability
that he will not get a electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at least one
of the contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both?
55. An M.B.A. applies for job in two firms X and Y. The probability of his being
selected in firm X is 0.7 and being rejected in the firm Y is 0.5. The probability of
at least one of his application being rejected is 0.6. What is the probability that he
will be selected in one of the firms?
56. A researcher has to consult a recently published book. The probability of its being
available is 0.5 for library A and 0.7 for library B. Assuming the two events to be
statistically independent, find the probability of book being available in library A
and not available in library B.
57. An investment consultant predicts that the odds against the price of certain stock
will go up next week are 2:1 and odds in favour of price remaining same are 1:3.
What is the probability that price of the stock will go down during the week?
58. In a random sample of 1,000 residents of a city 700 read newspaper A and 400
read newspaper B. If the habit of reading newspaper A and B is independent,
what is the probability that a person selected at random would be reading
(a) both the papers, (b) exactly one of the papers, (c) at least one of the
papers? Also find the absolute number of persons in each of the cases (a), (b) and
(c).
59. The odds that a book will be reviewed favourably by three independent experts are
5 to 2, 4 to 3 and 3 to 4 respectively. What is the probability that of the three
reviews a majority will be favourable?
60. In a certain city two newspapers, A and B, are published. It is known that 25% of
the city population reads A and 20% reads B while 8% reads both A and B. It is
also known that 30% of those who read A but not B look into advertisements and
40% of those who read B but not A look into advertisements while 50% of those
who read both A and B look into advertisements. What is percentage of population
who reads an advertisement?
61. The probability that a new entrant to a college will be a student of economics is
1/3, that he will be a student of political science is 7/10 and that he will not be a
student of economics and political science is 1/5. If one of the new entrants is
selected at random, what is the probability that (a) he will be a student of economics
350 and political science, (b) he will be a student of economics if he is a student of
political science? Comment upon the independence of two events : a student of Probability
economics and a student of political science.
62. 20% of all students at a university are graduates and 80% are undergraduates.
The probability that a graduate student is married is 0.5 and the probability that an
undergraduate student is married is 0.1. One student is selected at random.
(a) What is probability that he is married?
(b) What is the probability that he is a graduate if he is found to be married?
63. In a city three daily news papers X, Y and Z are published. 40% of the people of
the city read X, 50% read Y, 30% read Z, 20% read both X and Y, 15% read X and
Z, 10% read Y and Z and 24% read all the 3 papers. Calculate the percentage of
people who do not read any of the 3 newspapers.
64. A bag contains 4 red and 3 blue balls. Two drawings of 2 balls are made. Find the
probability of drawing first 2 red balls and the second 2 blue balls
(i) if the balls are returned to the bag after the first draw,
(ii) if the balls are not returned after the first draw.
65. A die is loaded in such a way that each odd number is twice as likely to occur as
each even number. Find (i) the probability that the number rolled is a perfect square
and (ii) the probability that the number rolled is a perfect square provided it is
greater than 3.
66. There are 100 students in a college class of which 36 boys are studying statistics
and 13 girls are not studying statistics. If there are 55 girls in all, find the probability
that a boy picked at random is not studying statistics.
67. If a pair of dice is thrown, find the probability that
(i) the sum is neither 7 nor 11
(ii) the sum is neither 8 nor 10
(iii) the sum is greater than 12.
68. Three horses A, B and C are in race. A is twice as likely to win as B, and B is
twice as likely to win as C. What are the respective probabilities of winning?
69. A sample of 3 items is selected at random from a box containing 12 items of which
3 are defective. Find the possible number of defective combinations of the said 3
selected items along with their respective probabilities.
70. In an examination 30% of students have failed in mathematics, 20% of the students
have failed in chemistry and 10% have failed in both mathematics and chemistry.
A student is selected at random.
(i) What is the probability that the student has failed either in mathematics or in
chemistry?
(ii) What is the probability that the student has failed in mathematics if is known
that he has failed in chemistry?
71. There are two bags. The first contains 2 red and 1 white balls whereas the second
bag contains 1 red and 2 white balls. One ball is taken out at random from the first
bag and is being put in the second. Then, a ball is chosen at random from the
second bag. What is the probability that this ball is red?
72. From the sale force of 150 people, one will be chosen to attend a special meeting.
If 52 are single and 72 are college graduates, and 3/4 of 52 that are single are
college graduates, what is the probability that a sales person, selected at random,
will be neither single nor a college graduate? 351
Quantitative Techniques 73. Data on readership of a certain magazine indicate that the proportion of male
for Management
readers over 30 years old is 0.20. The proportion of male readers under 30 is 0.40.
If the proportion of readers under 30 is 0.70, what is the proportion of subscribers
that are male? Also find the probability that a randomly selected male subscriber is
under 30.
74. Two union leaders and 10 directors of a company sit randomly to decide upon the
wage hike as demanded by the union. Find the probability that there will be exactly
three directors between the two union leaders.
75. Suppose a company hires both MBAs and non-MBAs for the same kind of
managerial task. After a period of employment some of each category are promoted
and some are not. Table below gives the proportion of company's managers among
the said classes :

Academic Qualification
Promotional MBA Non - MBA
Status Total
(A) (A)

Promoted (B) 0.42 0.18 0.60


Not Promoted(B) 0.28 0.12 0.40
Total 0.70 0.30 1.00
Calculate P(A/B) andP(B/A), and find out whether A and B are independent events?
76. Each of A, B and C throws with two dice for a prize. The highest throw wins, but
if equal highest throws occur the player with these throw continue. If A throws
10 find his chance of winning.
77. The probability of a man hitting a target is 1/4. How many times must he fire so
that probability of hitting the target at least once is greater than 2/3?
78. Find the probability that an assessee files his tax return and cheats on it, given that
70% of all assessee file returns and 25% of those who file, cheat.
79. The probability of an aircraft engine failure is 0.10. With how many engines should
the aircraft be equipped to be 0.999 sure against an engine failure? Assume that
only one engine is needed for successful operation of the aircraft.
80. A market research firm is interested in surveying certain attitude in small community.
There are 125 house holds broken down according to income, ownership of a
telephone and ownership of a T.V.

Households with Households with


annual income of annual income
Rs. 1,00,000 or less above Rs. 1,00,000
Telephone Telephone
No Telephone No Telephone
subscriber subscriber
Own T.V. set 59 10 40 5
No T.V. set 2 4 4 1

(a) If a person is selected at random, what is the probability that he is a T.V.


owner?
(b) If the person selected at random is found to be having income greater than
100,000 and a telephone subscriber, what is the probability that he is a T.V.
owner?
(c) What is the conditional probability of drawing a household that owns a T.V.,
given that he is a telephone subscriber?
352
81. An investment firm purchases three stocks for one week trading purposes. It Probability
assesses the probability that the stock will increase in value over the week as 0.8,
0.7 and 0.6 respectively. What is the chance that (a) all the three stocks will increase,
and (b) at least two stocks will increase? (Assume that the movements of these
stocks is independent.)
82. A company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant I manufactures 70% of
the scooters and plant II manufactures 30%. At plant I 80% of the scooters are
rated standard quality and at plant II 90% of the scooters are rated standard quality.
A scooter is picked up at random and is found to be standard quality. What is the
chance that it has been produced by plant I?
83. A person has 4 coins each of a different denomination. How many different sums
of money can be formed?
84. Two sets of candidate avoid touching for the position of Board of Directors of a
company. The probabilities of winning are 0.7 and 0.3 for the two. If the first set
wins, they will introduce a new product with the probability 0.4. Similarly, the
probability that the second set will introduce a new product is 0.8. If the new
product has been introduced, what is the chance that the first set of candidates has
won?
85. By examining the chest X-ray, the probability that T.B. is detected when a person
is actually suffering is 0.99. The probability that the doctor diagnoses incorrectly,
that a person has T.B., on the basis of X-ray is 0.001. In a certain city, 1 in 1000
persons suffers from T.B. A person selected at random is diagnosed to have T.B.
What is the chance that he actually has T.B.?
86. The compressors used in refrigerators are manufactured by XYZ company at
three factories located at Pune, Nasik and Nagpur. It is known that the Pune
factory produces twice as many compressors as Nasik one, which produces the
same number as the Nagpur one (during the same period). Experience also shows
that 0.2% of the compressors produced at Pune and Nasik and 0.4% of those
produced at Nagpur are defective.
A quality control engineer while maintaining a refrigerator finds a defective
compressor. What is the probability that Nasik factory is not to be blamed?
87. A company estimates that the probability of a person buying its product after seeing
the advertisement is 0.7. If 60% of the persons have come across the advertisement,
What is the probability that the person, who buys the product, has not come across
the advertisement?
88. In an automobile factory, certain parts are to be fixed to the chassis in a section
before it moves into another section. On a given day, one of the three persons A, B
or C carries out this task. A has 45%, B has 35% and C has 20% chance of
doing it. The probabilities that A, B or C will take more than the allotted time are
1 1 1
, and respectively. If it is found that one of them has taken more time,
16 10 20
what is the probability that A has taken more time?
4 2 1
89. The probabilities of X, Y and Z becoming managers are , and respectively.
9 9 3
The probabilities that the Bonus Scheme will be introduced if X, Y or Z become
3 1 4
manager are , and respectively.
10 2 5
(a) What is the probability that the Bonus Scheme will be introduced?
(b) What is the probability that X was appointed as manager given that the Bonus
Scheme has been introduced? 353
Quantitative Techniques 90. There are 3 bags. The first bag contains 5 red and 3 black balls, the second contains
for Management
4 red and 5 black balls and the third contains 3 red and 4 black balls. A bag is
selected at random and the two balls drawn, at random, are found to be red. Revise
the probabilities of selection of each bag in the light of this observation.
91. On an average, 20% of the persons going to a handicraft emporium are foreigners
and the remaining 80% are local persons. 75% of foreigners and 50% of local
persons are found to make purchases. If a bundle of purchased items is sent to the
cash counter, what is the probability that the purchaser is a foreigner?
92. The chance that doctor A will diagnose disease B correctly is 60%. The chance
that a patient will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance
of death by wrong diagnosis is 70%. A patient of doctor A, who had disease B,
died. What is the chance that his disease was correctly diagnosed?
93. A company has four production sections S1, S2, S3 and S4 which contribute 30%,
20%, 28% and 22%, respectively, to the total output. It was observed that these
sections produced 1%, 2%, 3% and 4% defective units respectively. If a unit is
selected at random and found to be defective, what is the probability that it has
come from either S1 or S4?
94. A factory produces certain type of output by three machines. The respective daily
production figures are : machine A = 3,000 units, machine B = 2,500 units, machine
C = 4,500 units. Past experience shows that 1 % of the output produced by machine
A is defective. The corresponding fractions of defectives for the other two machines
are 1.2 and 2% respectively. An item is selected at random from a day's production
and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it came from the output of
(i) machine A, (ii) machine B, (iii) machine C?
95. It is known that 20% of the males and 5% of the females are unemployed in a
certain town consisting of an equal number of males and females. A person selected
at random is found to be unemployed. What is the probability that he/she is a (i)
male, (ii) female?
96. In a typing-pool, three typists share the total work in the ratio 30%, 35% and 35%
of the total work. The first, second and the third typist spoil the work to the extent
of 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. A completed work is selected at random and
found to be spoiled. What is the probability that the work was done by the third
typist?
97. An organisation dealing with consumer products, wants to introduce a new product
in the market. Based on their past experience, it has a chance of 65% of being
successful and 35% of not being successful. In order to help them to make a
decision on the new product, i.e., whether to introduce the new product or not, it
decides to get additional information on consumers' attitude towards the product.
For this purpose, the organisation decides to conduct a survey. In the past, when
the product of this type were successful, the surveys yielded favourable indications
85% of the times, whereas unsuccessful products received favourable indications
30% of the time. Determine the probability of the product being a success given
the survey information.
98. In a class of 75 students, 15 were considered to be very intelligent, 45 as medium
and the rest below average. The probability that a very intelligent student fails in a
viva-voce examination is 0.005; the medium student failing has a probability 0.05;
and the corresponding probability for a below average student is 0.15. If a student
is known to have passed the viva-voce examination, what is the probability that he
354 is below average?
99. Comment on the following statements : Probability

(a) Since accident statistics show that the probability that a person will be involved
in a road accident is 0.02, the probability that he will be involved in 2 accidents
in that year is 0.0004.
(b) For three mutually exclusive events A, B and C of a sample space S, where

1 3 1
P ( A) = , P ( B ) = and P (C ) = .
3 5 5

(c) A and B are two events in a sample space S where P A a f 5


6
af
, P B
2 and
3

b
P AI B = g 2.
5
(d) Four persons are asked the same question by an interviewer. If each has,
independently, probability of 1/6 of answering correctly, the probability that at

least one answers correctly is 4 × 1 = 2 .


6 3
(e) The probability that A and B, working independently, will solve a problem is
2 and probability that A will solve the problem 1 .
3 3
(f) For a biased dice the probabilities for different faces to turn up are as given in
the following table:
Number on
the dice 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 0.15 0. 30 0.17 0.25 0.08 0.07

(g) If the probability of A to fail in an examination is 0.15 and that for B is 0.27,
then the probability that either A or B fails in examination is 0.42.
(h) If the probability that Congress wins from a constituency is 0.40 and that
B.J.P. wins from the same constituency is 0.42, than the probability that either
Congress or B.J.P. wins from that constituency is 0.82.
(i) The probability of occurrence of event A is 0.6 and the probability of
occurrence of at least one of the four events A, B, C and D is 0.5.
100. Four alternative answers are given to each question. Point put the correct
answer :

(a) b g b
If A and B are any two events of a sample space S, then P A U B + P A I B g
equals

(i) P ( A) + P ( B )

(ii) d i
1− P A I B

(iii) 1− Pd A U B i

(iv) none of the above.


(b) If A and B are independent and mutually exclusive events, then

(i) P ( A) = P ( A / B )

(ii) P ( B ) = P ( B / A) 355
Quantitative Techniques (iii) either P(A) or P(B) or both must be zero.
for Management
(iv) none of the above.

(c) b
If A and B are independent events, then P A I B equalsg
(i) P ( A) + P ( B )

(ii) a f a f
P A . P B/ A

(iii) P a Bf. P a A / Bf

(iv) P a A f. P a B f

b g
(d) If A and B are independent events, then P A U B equals

(i) a f a f P a Bf
P A .P B

(ii) P a A f. P d B i P a B f

(iii) P d A i. P d B i P a A f

(iv) none of the above.

b g b g
(e) If A and B are two events such that P A U B = 5 , P A I B = 1 , P A = 1 ,
6 3 3
( )
the events are
(i) dependent
(ii) independent
(iii) mutually exclusive
(iv) none of the above.
101. Which of the following statements are TRUE or FALSE :
(i) The probability of an impossible event is always zero.
(ii) The number of permutations is always greater than the number of combinations.
(iii) If two events are independent, then they will also be mutually exclusive.
(iv) If P(A) and P(B) are non-zero and A and B are independent, then they
cannot be mutually exclusive.
(v) If P(A) and P(B) are non-zero and A and B are mutually exclusive, then they
may be independent.
(vi) The probability that the roof of a room will fall on the floor can be determined
with the help of Classical definition.
(vii) Personal judgement or experience cannot be used in the assignment of
probabilities.
(viii) Revision of the past probabilities of various events is possible on the basis of
the outcome of the experiment.
(ix) The probability of occurrence of an event cannot be a negative number.
(x) The probability of occurrence of an event that is sure to occur can be greater
than unity.
102. Objective Type Questions :
(a) The probability of getting a number greater than 4 from the throw of an
356 unbiased dice is
Probability
1 1 1
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
2 3 4
(b) The probability of getting exactly one tail in the toss of two unbiased coins is
1 2 1
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
2 3 4
(c) If odds in favour of an event A are 3 : 5, then the probability of non-occurrence
of A is
3 3 5
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
5 8 8
(d) Four dice and six coins are tossed simultaneously. The number of elements in
the sample space are
(i) 46 × 62 (ii) 26 × 62 (iii) 64 × 26 (iv) none of these.
(e) Two cards are drawn successively without replacement from a well-shuffled
pack of 52 cards. The probability that one of them is king and the other is
queen is

8 4 1
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
13 × 51 13 × 51 13 × 17
(f) Two unbiased dice are rolled. The chance of obtaining an even sum is
1 1 1
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
4 2 3
(g) Two unbiased dice are rolled. The chance of obtaining a six only on the
second die is
5 1 1
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
6 6 4

(h) If P Aa f 4 , then odds against A are


5
(i) 1:4 (ii) 5:4 (iii) 4 : 5 (iv) none of these.
(i) The probability of occurrence of an event A is 0.60 and that of B is 0.25. If A
and B are mutually exclusive events, then the probability of occurrence of
neither of them is
(i) 0.35 (ii) 0.75 (iii) 0.15 (iv) none of these.
(j) The probability of getting at least one head in 3 throws of an unbiased coin is
1 7 3
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) none of these.
8 8 8

10.13 MODEL ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS FOR


DISCUSSION
1. (a) Statistical, Random (b) Permutation (c) enumeration
(d) Russian (e) Inverse Probability
2. (a) True (b) True (c) True (d) False (e) True

10.14 SUGGESTED READINGS


W. Feller, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, Volume 1, John
Willy & Sons. 357
Quantitative Techniques I Csiszar, I divergence geometry of probability distributions and minimization
for Management
problems, The Annals of probability, Vol 3, No 1, pp. 146-158.
Sheldon M. Ross, A first course in probability, Prentice Hall.
Morris H. Degroot, Mark J, Schervish, "Probability and Statistics," Addison-Wesley,
2001
William Mendenhall, Robert, J. Beaver, Barbara, M. Beaver, Introduction to Probability
and Statistics.

358

You might also like