SOCI1005 – Introductory

Statistics for the Behaviour

Sciences
Probability Distribution - Binomial
Distribution

March 16, 2021

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Outline

• Important terminologies

• Conditions of a binomial experiment

• Computing probabilities

• Mean, Variance & Standard deviation

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Important terminologies
A probability distribution is a sample space and as such provides all the possible
values that a random variable, X, can assume and assigns a likelihood to each
event.

Random variable:
• consists of different values, which represent or describe the outcomes of an
experiment.

• A variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random experiment.

• For example,
– The average height of a randomly selected group of boys.
– The annual number of lotto winners.
– The total score from throwing two dice.
– The length of leaves picked from a tree.
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Important terminologies

• There are two types of random variables:

– Discrete random variables: these random variables consist of

different counting, for e.g. the number of vehicles owned by a
family, the number of houses in a certain block
– Binomial random variables

– Continuous random variables: these random variables consist of an

uncountable set of different values which can be fractional or
decimalized, for e.g. the time taken to complete an examination, the
height of a person
– Normal random variables.
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Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random

Variable

ØThe probability function for a discrete probability

distribution is given as:
• P (X = x) which may also be written as P(x).
• This is the probability that the random variable
X takes on a value x.
• The random variable is always represented by a
large X, while the value it assumes is
represented by a small x.
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Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random

Variable
The probability distribution of a discrete random
variable lists all the possible values that the random
variable can assume and their corresponding
probabilities.
• The probabilities assigned to each value of a
random variable X lies in the range 0 to 1; that
is, 0 £ P ( x ) £ 1
• The sum of the probabilities assigned to all
possible values of x is equal to 1; that is, å P ( x ) =1
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Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable

The table below gives the probability distribution for the

random variable number of vehicles owned (X)

Number of Probability
Vehicles P(x) 1. P(X = 2) = 0.425
Owned
0 .015 2. P(X< 3) = P(X=0) +P(X=1) + P(X=2)
= 0.015 + 0.235 + 0.425
1 .235
= 0.675
2 .425
3 .245
4 .080
å P( x) =1
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Binomial Distribution
Ø A binomial distribution is a specific type of discrete probability distribution
which is applicable in situations where an event can occur in one of two ways
e.g. success/failure, defective/non-defective.

Ø A random variable X follows a binomial distribution if it meets the following

conditions/properties:
▫ There are n trials of the experiment;
▫ The trials are independent and identical;
▫ There are only two possible outcomes in each trial, that is, a success and a
failure;
▫ There is a fixed known probability of success (p) or failure (q)
▫ p + q = 1; q = 1 – p

Ø The binomial random variable X records the number of successful outcomes.

Ø The list of all possible values of X is called the binomial distribution of X.
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Binomial Distribution

• Calculating probabilities of a binomial random variable X is simple

since it can be determined from the following binomial formula:

P( X = x) = nC x ´ p x ´ q n - x
• Where :
▫ x = no. of successful outcomes
▫ p = probability of success
▫ n = number of trials
▫ q = probability of failure
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Binomial Distribution

• To recognize a question that requires the calculation of

probabilities from a binomial distribution, the following items
must be identified from the question in that order:
1. Only two possible outcomes
2. The probability of success (p) and failure (q)
3. The number of trials (n)
4. The desired number or range of successful outcomes for
X.
 Example 11

According to tables provided by the National Center for Health Statistics in Vital
Statistics of the United States, there is roughly an 80% chance that a person of age
20 years will be alive at age 65 years. Suppose three people of age 20 years are
selected at random. Find the probability that the number alive at age 65 years will
be (a) exactly two, (b) at most one (c) at least one.
Solution:
Let x denote the number of people of the three who are alive at age 65.
Step 1: Identify the success. The success is that a person currently of age 20 will be
alive at age 65.
Step 2: Determine p, the probability of success. The probability that a person
currently of age 20 will be alive at age 65 is 80%, so p = 0.8.
Determine q, the probability of failure. The probability that a person currently of
age 20 will NOT be alive at age 65 is 20%, that is q = 0.2. (1 - 0.8 = 0.2)
Step 3: Determine n, the number of trials. The number of trials is the number of
people in the study, which is three, so n = 3.
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Example con’t
Step 4: The binomial probability formula for the number of
successes, X, is
P(X = x) =
n
Cx p x q n- x
a) P ( X = 2) = 3C 2 (0.8) 2 (0.2) 3- 2
P ( X = 2) = 3C 2 (0.8) 2 (0.2)1
P ( X = 2) = 3 * 0.64 * 0.2
P ( X = 2) = 0.384

Interpretation: There is a 38.4% chance that exactly two

of the three people will be alive at age 65.
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Example con’t
b) The probability that at most one person will
be alive at age 65 is
P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)

P( X £ 1)= 3C0 (0.8) 0 (0.2) 3 + 3C1 (0.8)1 (0.2) 3-1

P( X £ 1) = (1*1* 0.008) + (3 * 0.8 * 0.04)
P( X £ 1) = 0.008 + 0.096
P( X £ 1) = 0.104

Interpretation: There is a 10.4% chance that at most one of the

three people will be alive at age 65.
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Example con’t

•
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Example con’t
However, using the complementation rule is easier:
P(X ≥ 1) = 1 − P(X < 1) = 1 − P(X = 0)
= 1 - 0.008 = 0.992
Interpretation: There is a 99.2% chance that one or
more of the three people will be alive at age 65.
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Examples

1. The probability that an entering college student will graduate

is 0.6. Determine the probability that out of 6 students (a) 1
will graduate (b) none will graduate (c) at least 4 will
graduate.
2. If 20% of bolts produced by a machine are defective,
determine the probability that out of 4 bolts chosen at random,
at most 2 will be defective.
3. In a large restaurant an average 3 out of every 5 customers ask
for water with their meal. A random sample of 9 customers is
selected. Find the probability that exactly 6 customers ask for
water with their meal.
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Mean, Variance & Standard Deviation
• For a binomial random variable X with a certain n and
a certain p:

• The average (mean or expected value) of X is

calculated as np

• The variance of X is calculated as npq

• The standard deviation of X is calculated as npq

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Example

•
 Examples 19

ØAccording to government data, the probability that a woman between the

ages of 25 and 29 was never married is 40%. In a random survey of 10
women in this age group, what is the mean and standard deviation of the
number that never married?
ØIf the probability of a defective bolt is 0.1, find the mean and standard
deviation for the distribution of defective bolts in a total of 400.
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Examples

Ø On average 60% of students that sit a Mathematics course passes. Of a

class of 15 students, what is the probability that 12 students will pass?

Ø Calculate the expected number of students to pass as well as the

variance and standard deviation.