THE FUTURE OF

ROAD TRANSPORT
IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATED, CONNECTED, LOW-CARBON AND SHARED MOBILITY

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EUR 29748 EN
This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s
science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking
process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the
European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be
made of this publication.

Manuscript completed in April 2019

Contact information
Biagio Ciuffo, Maria Alonso Raposo
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027, Ispra (VA), Italy
[email protected], [email protected]
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EUR 29748 EN

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How to cite this report: Alonso Raposo, M. (Ed.), Ciuffo, B. (Ed.), Ardente, F., Aurambout, J-P., Baldini, G., Braun, R.,
Christidis, P., Christodoulou, A., Duboz, A., Felici, S., Ferragut, J., Georgakaki, A., Gkoumas , K., Grosso, M., Iglesias, M.,
Julea, A., Krause, J., Martens, B., Mathieux, F., Menzel, G., Mondello, S., Navajas Cawood, E., Pekár, F., Raileanu, I-C.,
Scholz, H., Tamba, M., Tsakalidis, A., van Balen, M., Vandecasteele, I., The future of road transport - Implications of
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Luxembourg, 2019, ISBN 978-92-76-03409-4, doi:10.2760/9247, JRC116644.

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 THE FUTURE OF
ROAD TRANSPORT
IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATED, CONNECTED, LOW-CARBON AND SHARED MOBILITY
 Table of contents 2

TABLE
OF CONTENTS
Executive summary 4

1 Motivation and objective 8

2 A new era for road transport 11

2.1 Present and future challenges for mobility 12
2.2 Technology outlook 18
2.3 Overview of user uptake 25
2.4 The complexity of the transport system 26

3 New mobility paradigms 31

4 Transport supply system and new governance options 39

5 Transport platforms and data governance 45

6 Infrastructure requirements 51
6.1 Recharging and refuelling infrastructure 51
6.2 Infrastructure public safety 54
6.3 Digital infrastructure 56

7 Communication technologies and cybersecurity 59

7.1 Communication technologies 59
7.2 Cybersecurity 61
3 Table of contents

8 Legislation and standardisation 65

9 Economy 71

10 Employment and skills 79

11 Energy use and emissions 87

12 Sustainability of material supply 95

13 Privacy, democracy and social fairness 101

13.1 Privacy 102
13.2 Democracy 103
13.3 Social fairness 105

14 The urban road context 109

15 The way forward 116

Endnotes 118
List of abbreviations 122
References 126
List of boxes and tables 141
List of figures 142
Acknowledgements 144
 Executive summary 4

EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
We are witnessing nothing less than a revolution in However, new technologies alone will
transport. Technological drivers such as automation, not spontaneously make our lives better
connectivity and low-carbon technologies, coupled without upgrading our transport systems
with new sharing trends are completely redefining and policies.
the business of getting around. However, without Early evidence suggests that transport efficiency is
the right policies in place, this may make things not necessarily improving. New mobility solutions
worse for most people in most cities. such as car sharing, ride sharing and ride-hailing
services are making cars even more appealing,
Developments in road transport are the focus of thereby luring passengers from public transport
this report, which is based on independent research

1 3 5
and analysis by the European Commission’s Joint Transport
Research Centre aiming to inform policy debate at Motivation New platforms
the European level. and mobility and data
objective paradigms governance
A perfect storm of new technologies p. 8 p. 30 p. 44
and new business models
With its EUR 7 trillion annual revenue stream,
transport attracts disruptive technology companies p. 10 p. 38

2 4
that are not interested in preserving the current
A new era for Transport supply
model in the same way as conventional players road transport system and new
may be tempted to. A perfect storm of new governance
technologies and new business models is options
transforming not only our vehicles, but everything
about how we get around and how we live our lives
(Chapter 1). which is often perceived as old, dangerous and
uncomfortable. As a result, several cities, especially
Flexible options like electric bikes, scooters and in the USA, are experiencing a significant increase
modular automated shuttles may make public in road congestion (Chapter 3). If the introduction
transport more accessible by shrinking the 'last of automated vehicles makes car-based transport
mile' to and from our homes or workplaces. cheaper and even more comfortable, the situation
Innovation can slash costs and spur demand: will deteriorate further. At the same time, flexible
full automation cuts out drivers, electrification options may remain out of the reach of the more
simplifies production and lowers running costs, price-sensitive segments of the population unless
while sharing can increase profits by making they are well integrated into the public transport
vehicles work 24/7 and use the road more system.
efficiently (Chapter 2).
 5 Executive summary

Policymakers must act to ensure that Left unmanaged, such changes may widen the gaps
new technologies will make future in our societies (Chapters 9-14).
transport cleaner and more equitable
than its car-centred present. Developing efficient and equitable
The technological upheaval represents a unique governance systems by engaging citizens
opportunity to turn the transport sector upside down To deal with the challenges facing the transport
and make it more efficient and rational. For example, sector, policymakers will have to address
greater automation and connectivity may allow for road transport, which is putting increasingly
regulated access to the road which, in turn, could unbearable burdens on society, be it through lives
bring substantial benefits for traffic flow, transport lost, economic losses, pollution or greenhouse
efficiency and energy consumption (Chapter 4). gas emissions. To harness the promise of new
And this is no simple task. Policies, in particular, must technologies, public authorities must define and
take into account the fact that transport systems coordinate all actors in the public interest and
are extremely complex and their elements can establish efficient and equitable governance for
often influence one another in unexpected ways. complex, multimodal transport systems.
Today, uncoordinated competition among service
providers and a lack of leadership by transport Given the many interconnected issues to be
authorities are leading to more traffic problems considered in shaping future transport and mobility,

7 9 11 13 15
Communication Privacy,
technologies democracy
and Energy use and social The way
cybersecurity Economy and emissions fairness forward
p. 58 p. 70 p. 86 p. 100 p. 116

p. 50 p. 64 p. 78 p. 94 p. 108

6 8 10 12 14
Infrastructure Legislation and Employment Sustainability The urban
requirements standardisation and skills of material road context
supply

and unbalanced capacity provision. In addition, research and experimentation with the engagement
the lack of a predictable long-term framework, of citizens must be promoted. Establishing a
including standardisation, data governance, network of ‘European living labs’ is one way to
interoperability and digital security, may lead to create the right environment in which innovative
suboptimal investments and create a glut of options mobility solutions are tested and rolled out with
in one place and a lack of them in others (Chapters the direct involvement of people. If framed in the
5-8). To make the picture even more complex for right way, upcoming trends in road transport have
policymakers, rapid changes in the transport system the potential to significantly improve our lives,
can have negative effects far beyond transport itself. although decision-making must take account of
For example, such changes influence the demand the complexity of intertwined dimensions that are
for and supply of workers and skills, the demand related to road transport and should be based on
for critical raw materials, how data is treated and a debate with citizens to assess visions and needs
who can access different modes of transport. (Chapter 15).
THE FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT
IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATED, CONNECTED, LOW-CARBON
AND SHARED MOBILITY KEY MESSAGES

Under current trends, If no action is taken,

road transport and private cars the challenges faced in road
remain dominant transport will get even harder

air pollution
productivity
losses accidents
and fatalities

A STORM OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND BUSINESS MODELS

IS TRANSFORMING EVERYTHING ABOUT HOW WE GET AROUND AND HOW WE LIVE OUR LIVES

AUTOMATION
CONNECTIVITY
DECARBONISATION

SHARING

how to get
around?
energy use
invest in what? and emissions
economy

urban
employment development
and skills where
to live?
what education
or career?
sustainability social fairness
of material supply
will there be
enough of it?
inclusive
enough?
 ...OFFERING OPPORTUNITIES FOR A BETTER TRANSPORT SYSTEM

multimodal

more accessible

car-centred

PEOPLE-CENTRIC less polluting

transport system

shared flexible

safer coordinated
and more efficient

BUT THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM AND POLICIES NEED TO BE UPGRADED

BECAUSE NEW TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES ALONE WON’T SPONTANEOUSLY MAKE OUR LIVES BETTER

unbalanced
service uncoordinated
provision competition
POLICYMAKING routing
coordination

regulating
traffic road access

lack of emissions upgrading public

leadership transport
demand energy use

promoting
more sustainable
transport modes

THE FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

AND LIVING LABS CAN SHOW THE WAY TOWARDS INNOVATIVE MOBILITY SOLUTIONS
facilitating
transition
CITIZENS
INVOLVEMENT
industry

local authorities
network policy IMPROVE GOVERNANCE

new technologies
interoperability
 1. Motivation and objective 8

MOTIVATION AND
OBJECTIVE
This report builds upon the scientific activities to disrupt the century-old mobility concept 2 in the
carried out at the JRC and the evidence available future: automation, connectivity, decarbonisation
from relevant sources to analyse the possible and sharing.
evolution of the road transport sector and personal
mobility in future decades. The transport sector These trends will affect the part of the overall
is – and will continue to be – increasingly driven transport system linked to road transport and,
by technology. However, no matter how smart most importantly, the urban context. However,
technologies are, their contribution towards as the impact of urban transport and mobility
improving our quality of life will greatly depend occupies a relevant share of all transport impacts,
on how they are implemented and used. Thus, this such disruption will have a significant impact
report also focuses on the potential implications in other transport and mobility contexts and in
of this evolution for the road transport system broader societal areas like, for example, economic
and society, highlighting the key role played by development, climate and environment, safety,
policymakers in driving the transformation. security and jobs3.

Bearing in mind how the road transport sector The predicted impact of these breakthrough
could look in the next 30 years and the path its technologies and services on road transport
evolution could take, it seems likely that many externalities could contribute significantly to
different developments will coexist. This report achieving an efficient, safe, sustainable and
singles out the issues at stake linked to various inclusive multimodal transport system in the
possible mobility development pathways, raising future. They could provide new opportunities able
awareness of the policymaking and research needs to affect the functioning and governance of the
in driving towards a better road transport system. It transport sector as well as new ways in which
aims to inform the policy debate at European level users can benefit from the transport opportunities
in the road mobility field. provided. Together with other factors, such as
data governance, infrastructures, cybersecurity
It is essential to address the road transport and legislation, which will also act as potential
externalities1 in order to reach an efficient, safe, obstacles to or enablers and accelerators of the
sustainable and inclusive multimodal transport transformation, the mobility revolution will have
system in the future. In particular, certain a strong impact on our society (Figure 1).
technological innovations will drive major changes
in the road transport sector: digitalisation, The factors covered in the present report are:
automation, artificial intelligence (AI), ubiquitous
communication and the decarbonisation of • new mobility paradigms;
transport. These technology drivers are shaping • transport governance;
four major game changers that have started • data governance;
gaining momentum in the last decade and promise • infrastructure requirements;
 9 1. Motivation and objective

• communication technologies The report is structured into 14 chapters. Chapter 2

and cybersecurity; introduces the technological and social drivers of
• legislation and standardisation. the future and presents the challenges affecting
mobility. The potential impacts of these drivers on
The report then analyses the following societal travel behaviour are analysed in Chapter 3, while
implications: new transport governance approaches enabled by
the new technologies are presented in Chapter 4.
• economy; A set of external factors that can either contribute
• employment and skills; to or hinder the transition (data governance,
• energy use and emissions; infrastructure, communication technologies,
• sustainability of material supply; cybersecurity, legislation and standardisation) are
• privacy, democracy and social fairness; introduced in Chapters 5 to 8, while Chapters 9
• urban development. to 14 address the future issues at stake for our
society (namely economy, employment and skills,
Policymakers, public authorities and the other energy use and emissions, sustainability of material
actors in the decision-making process will have the supply, democracy, privacy and social fairness, and
important role of preparing society for these changes, the urban context). Finally, Chapter 15 summarises
protecting consumers and enabling the uptake of the main messages provided throughout the report.
these new technologies and systems by means of the
market creating wealth and sustainability.
chapter 2

AUTOMATION DECARBONISATION

chapter 3 CONNECTIVITY SHARING

EXTERNAL FACTORS

new mobility
paradigms
chapter 4

transport
governance
chapter 5

data
governance
chapter 6

infrastructure
requirements
chapter 7

communication
EXTERNAL FACTORS

technologies and
cybersecurity chapter 8

legislation and
standardisation

SOCIETAL IMPLICATIONS

economy employment energy use sustainability privacy, democracy urban context

and skills and emissions of material supply and social fairness
chapter 9 chapter 10 chapter 11 chapter 12 chapter 13 chapter 14

Figure 1: Enabling factors and societal implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility
 2. A new era for road transport 10

SUMMARY

Four key game changers are shaping the future of road transport: automation,
connectivity, decarbonisation and sharing. These future technologies and services
promise to contribute to fewer negative impacts from road transport while also
generating new mobility paradigms and transport governance opportunities. Users’
acceptance of these trends is an important factor that will drive their adoption.
Understanding how new technology options will affect transport systems requires
an analysis of the dynamic interactions between the demand for transporting
people and goods and the new opportunities offered by these systems. This chapter
introduces these trends from the technological and user’ uptake perspectives in the
context of present and future road mobility challenges and the complexity of the
road transport demand-supply relationship.
 11 2. A new era for road transport

A NEW ERA
FOR ROAD
TRANSPORT
AUTOMATION, CONNECTIVITY, DECARBONISATION AND SHARING

Four fast-moving trends are currently shaping

road mobility and have a disruptive potential to
Four fast-moving
transform road transport as we know it:
trends promise
Automation is defined as systems
able to “perform part or all of the
to disrupt road
Dynamic Driving Task (DDT) – i.e. all
of the real-time operational and
transport as we
tactical functions required to
operate a vehicle in on-road traffic, excluding the
know it: automation,
strategic functions such as trip scheduling and
selection of destinations and waypoints – on a
connectivity,
sustained basis” (SAE International, 2016). There
are different levels of automation, as further
decarbonisation
explained in Section 2.2, referred to overall as
‘automated vehicles’ (AVs).
and sharing.
Connectivity refers to the use of automated vehicle’ (CAV) encompasses
technologies enabling road vehicles connectivity and automation.
to communicate with each other
and with roadside infrastructure Decarbonisation addresses the use
(e.g. traffic signals). Connectivity of alternative fuels like electricity,
enables the concept of Cooperative Intelligent hydrogen, biofuels and natural gas,
Transport Systems (C-ITS) and is closely interlinked which are crucial to break the
with automation, especially for the efficient European transport sector’s
management of AVs in traffic. “Connectivity, dependence on fossil fuels and to reduce
Cooperation and Automation are complementary greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Among these,
technologies that reinforce each other and will electrification is widely considered as a viable
over time merge completely” (European strategy for reducing oil dependency and the
Commission, 2016a). The term ‘connected and environmental impacts of road transport.
 2. A new era for road transport 12

Electric vehicles (EVs), including battery electric integration of parts and component control
vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (Mehta et al., 2018). Finally, MaaS, combined
(PHEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are with vehicle automation and electric engines, is
definitely increasing their market penetration. In expected to lower the costs of road transport
the near future, a reduction in the cost of key EV significantly, resulting in the massive adoption
components (especially batteries) is expected of these technologies and services in the near
which can further accelerate their adoption. Fuel future 6 .
cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) could also be
considered under the electrification category, with 2.1 P resent and future challenges
the battery being replaced by a fuel cell engine. for mobility
Biofuels (“liquid or gaseous transport fuels such
as biodiesel and bioethanol which are made from Sustainable and universal mobility has always
biomass”4) are also an important renewable been at the centre of EU transport policy as it
alternative to fossil fuels. meets citizens’ needs and plays a vital role in
the competitiveness of European industry and
 Sharing is “an innovative transport services. Between 1995 and 2015, the total
strategy that enables users to gain number of EU-28 passenger kilometres (pkm)
short-term access to transport increased by 23.8 % to 6 602 billion pkm,
modes on an ‘as-needed basis’” and
includes “various forms of car
sharing, bike sharing, ride sharing (carpooling and

It is
vanpooling), and on-demand ride services”
(Shaheen et al., 2015). ‘Mobility-as-a-Service’
(MaaS) is also a frequently used term to describe
the use of digital technologies that integrate
various forms of transport services into a single
expected that
mobility service accessible on demand5.
EU transport
The combination of these four elements can lead
to a radical transformation of road transport activity will
as the interplay and integration between them
has a reinforcing effect. For example, AVs can continue
accelerate the adoption of shared mobility by
reducing one significant operational cost: the driver to grow in
the coming
(Corwin et al., 2015; European Commission, 2018c).

In addition, vehicle electrification can be

accelerated by shared, automated mobility. There
are three factors which can affect maximisation
decades, with
of the return on investment (ROI) of EVs: greater
use of such vehicles, the potentially lower need for
road transport
maintenance (Arbib and Seba, 2017) and easier
access to charging infrastructure (ERTRAC, 2017). maintaining its
Furthermore, recent work suggests that AVs are
easier to produce with electric rather than internal dominant role.
combustion engines, due in part to the easier
 13 2. A new era for road transport

the vast majority of which were covered by transport maintaining its dominant role (European
passenger cars (around 4 700 billion pkm, as Commission, 2016e). Specifically, growth in road
reported in Figure 2) (European Commission, 2017f). passenger transport is estimated at 16 % during
2010-2030 and at 30 % for 2010-2050. Road
It is expected that EU transport activity will freight transport is projected to increase by 33 % by
continue to grow in the coming decades, with road 2030 and 55 % by 20507 (Figure 2 and 3).

8 000

7 000

6 000

5 000
billion pkm

4 000

3 000

2 000
Two-wheelers
1 000
Private cars

0 Public road transport

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Figure 2: Road passenger transport activity evolution since 2005 and up to 2050 (in billion passenger kilometres - pkm)
Source: Own elaborations based on data used by the European Commission7

3 000

2 000
billion tkm

1 000

Heavy-duty vehicles
0 Light-duty vehicles
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Figure 3: Road freight transport activity evolution since 2005 and up to 2050 (in billion tonne kilometres - tkm)
Source: Own elaborations based on data used by the European Commission7
 2. A new era for road transport 14

Challenges facing road transport Urbanisation

S
 afety Globally, in 2015, more than 50 % of people live
In 2015, a total of 26 134 road traffic deaths in urban areas. In Europe, this figure is 75 %
and 1.09 million road accidents causing personal (Vandecasteele et al., 2019). According to the UN, it
injuries occurred on EU-28 roads (European is foreseen that urbanisation will continue to grow –
Commission, 2017f). Compared to their national reaching 68 % globally and 84 % in Europe by 2050
average, cities score much better in terms of (United Nations, 2018). In general, an already dense
traffic safety, with almost all recording lower and growing urban population means that the global
fatality rates (European Commission, 2016f). challenges faced in relation to transport and mobility
The EU aims to reduce traffic fatalities by 50 % are intensified in urban areas. In larger cities, car
by 2020 compared to 2010. However, in recent ownership tends to be lower than the national
years, EU fatalities have deviated from the target average as people in cities prefer other modes of
and it would appear that the figures will not be transport (i.e. public transport, walking and cycling)
reached (European Commission, 2018f). The 50 % (European Commission, 2016f). Capital cities have
reduction target corresponds to a fatality rate of the lowest rates of residents using cars although the
less than 3.1 fatalities per 100 000 inhabitants. variation between cities is remarkable, ranging from
In 2015, the EU-28 had 5.1 fatalities per 100 000 more than 70 % in Nicosia, Cyprus to less than 10 %
inhabitants (European Commission, 2017f). in Paris, France (European Commission, 2016f).

Commuting times
Housing in cities is expensive (e.g. on average,
more than 40 % of disposable income (European

In 2015, Commission, 2016f)). This calls for more daily in/

out city commuting for those going to work.

in the EU, Congestion

Productivity losses from road congestion
852.3 million account for approximately 1-2 % of the EU’s
gross domestic product (GDP) 8. In 2015, on

tonnes of CO2 average, commuters spent between 45 (Paris)

and 101 (London) hours in congestion (INRIX,

were emitted by 2015), accounting for the top 15 most-congested

European cities.

road transport, Environment

constituting more According to the European Commission, in 2015,

in the EU-28, 852.3 million tonnes of CO2 were

than 70 % of
emitted by road transport, constituting more than
70 % of emissions from all modes of transport
(European Commission, 2017f). Transport is also a
emissions from significant and growing contributor to air pollution.
In particular, it is estimated that road transport

all modes of is responsible for up to 30 % of small particulate

matter (PM) emissions in European cities and is

transport. the main cause of air-pollution-related deaths and

illnesses (World Health Organization, 2015).
 15 2. A new era for road transport

Demography
Settlements need to accommodate a growing up to 35 % by 2050 (United Nations, 2017).
elderly population. Globally, the number of people Authorities can facilitate active ageing by ensuring
aged 60 years and over is projected to more than that public spaces, transport and buildings
double by 2050 and those aged 80 years and over are accessible to people with limited mobility.
are expected to triple by 2050, compared to 2017 Settlements have very diverse demographic
(United Nations, 2017). In 2017, the share of the structures, requiring mobility systems that
European population aged 60 years and over was can be adapted to become more inclusive and
25 % and this proportion is projected to increase accessible to everyone.
 THE FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT
IMPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATED, CONNECTED, LOW-CARBON
AND SHARED MOBILITY

SAFETY

1+ million accidents By 2020, the EU aims to

with injuries
reduce traffic fatalities
by 50 %

road fatalities
26 + thousand deaths 5.1 per 100 000
inhabitants
on European roads

Traffic is safer in cities

than in the countryside
2010 2015 2020

but the target will be missed

URBANISATION

Now In 2050
In larger cities,
WORLD 54 % 68 % car ownership
is lower
of the population the share is expected
lives in cities to increase Nicosia
Car use is lower 70 %
Paris
in capital cities 10 %
EU 74 % 84 % but the rate varies
significantly from one city
to another

COMMUTING TIME

Housing in cities
is expensive
In cities, housing
accounts for

+40 % increased
daily commuting time
of disposable income
CHALLENGES FACED IN ROAD TRANSPORT
CONGESTION

an average commuter spends

resulting in
between productivity losses
of about 1-2 % of the EU’s GDP
45
101
and

Paris hours
in congestion
per year
London
in the top 15 most-congested European cities

HARMFUL EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT

In the EU

road transport is responsible for Road transport is a major

contributor to air pollution
more than 70 %
of emissions of all
transport
emissions up to 30 % of small
particulate emissions*
RESIDENTIAL
ROAD
SECTOR
TRANSPORT * the main cause of
377.4 million air-pollution-related deaths and illnesses
852.3 million tonnes of CO2
tonnes of CO2

DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE
Now In 2050

The transport system needs to be more

13 %
WORLD
21 % accessible to an elderly population
with limited mobility

of the population the share is bound

is aged 60+ to increase

EU
25 % 35 %
 2. A new era for road transport 18

2.2 T echnology outlook observation is that EV technologies are researched

relatively frequently by small and medium-sized
Figure 4 links transport-related technologies to enterprises (SMEs). Another revolutionary technology
European research and innovation (R&I) projects9. theme, CAVs, is in fourth place. Innovations in more
This illustration identifies fuel cell and hydrogen fuel established technologies are found under the vehicle
technologies as the category receiving the most power-train theme in third place.
funding. Two large projects under Horizon 2020
(H2020), called ‘H2ME’ and ‘H2ME2’, are responsible In addition to public spending in the field, the
for the largest part of the funding. The EVs category, private sector is making huge investments fuelled
which covers a large number of technologies and by investment funds looking for competitive
projects, comes second in terms of funding. A notable revenues in a period of low interest rates. Vehicle

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12
23

23

29

43
28

Number of projects
31

39

Budget (million €)
Figure 4: Extract of transport technologies funded under Horizon 2020 (H2020)
Note: FC = fuel cells; EV = electric vehicles; ADAS = advanced driver assistance systems; VDM = vehicle design
and manufacturing; TMS = t raffic management systems; EM = energy management; EC = emission control; MaaS = mobility
as a service; HVAC = heating, ventilation and air-conditioning; CAD = computer aided design
Source: own elaborations based on TRIMIS data
 19 2. A new era for road transport

manufacturers, ICT companies, automotive having made a profit. Therefore, over the coming
suppliers and dynamic start-ups are competing years, developments in mobility technologies in
for a share of the global passenger economy, general will be decisive in understanding how the
estimated to be worth USD 7 trillion in 2050 situation will evolve in the future.
(Strategy Analytics, 2017).
Connected and automated vehicles
This is generating a systemic race towards the Automated driving is classified within five distinct
development of technological enablers for future levels of automation for existing vehicles or
transport solutions. Under such conditions, there is vehicles planned to be deployed in the future
a risk of inflated expectations whereby aggressive (SAE International, 2016) (Figure 5). These levels
companies speculate for short-term revenues primarily identify whether it is the human or the
for their shareholders. Following this phase, the machine in charge of the DDT: they range from
speculative bubble usually bursts, causing many level 0 where the DDT is entirely performed by the
companies to fail. Only a few survive and continue human driver (no automation) to level 5 where the
to actually improve the technology. DDT is entirely performed by the automated driving
system (full automation). The DDT comprises
This is similar to what happened to major bike- both the vehicle’s lateral control (steering) and its
sharing players, which are generally struggling longitudinal control (accelerating, braking), together
to survive today after a period of constant over- with monitoring the environment, referred to as
evaluation. According to the Gartner Hype Cycle, object and event detection and response (OEDR).
CAVs, for example, are slowly moving from the The operational design domain (ODD) delimits the
peak of inflated expectations to the next phase geographical, road, environmental, traffic, speed
(the trough of disillusionment) (Panetta, 2018). and temporal conditions where the automated
Something similar is happening to shared mobility driving system is expected to operate parts of the
service providers, currently in their ‘bubble’ phase DDT and applies to levels 1 to 4 automation (level 5
– with a very high market valuation without ever automation has an unlimited ODD).

MONITORED DRIVING NON-MONITORED DRIVING

VEHICLE
eyes on, hands on temporary hands off eyes off, hands off

driver driver
not required not required
during defined use

sporadic monitoring
be ready to resume
control
continuous
continuous monitoring cope with cope with
recognise all situations all situations
continuous lateral OR performance limits
lateral AND longitudinal automatically automatically
lateral AND require driver
longitudinal control to resume control
control longitudinal
control within sufficient time margin

or
DRIVER

in a specific use case in a specific use case in a defined use case during the entire journey

0 1 2 3 4 5
DRIVER ONLY ASSISTED CONDITIONAL AUTOMATION HIGH AUTOMATION FULL AUTOMATION
already on the market awaited 2020-2030

Figure 5: Summary of Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) International levels of driving automation for on-road vehicles
Source: own elaborations based on European Commission (2018c)
 2. A new era for road transport 20

The automation level of an automated driving 2019 (European Commission, 2016a). An important
system, its ODD and whether it behaves enabler of the large-scale deployment of C-ITS
independently or in a cooperative way with other is the recently adopted Commission Delegated
vehicles and the infrastructure are the three primary Regulation C(2019) 1789 final on the deployment
attributes of CAVs (Shladover, 2018 in Ciuffo et al., and operational use of C-ITS11, which provides
2018). the necessary legal certainty and framework for
interoperability. It is expected that there will be a
From a technological point of view, automated long period during which these new technologies
driving systems are still being developed and will coexist with conventional vehicles (European
tested, with some recent severe and fatal accidents Commission, 2017a), with great uncertainty as
(Claybrook and Kildare, 2018), and some delays over to when they might dominate road travel. Some
the ambitious targets set by certain key players in optimistic estimates anticipate that by 2030, 95 %
the field (Hawkins, 2017). Significant technological of US passenger miles travelled will be served by on-
challenges to making fully automated driving demand autonomous EVs owned by fleet operators,
a reality remain (Marshall, 2017), with training accounting for 60 % of the entire US vehicle fleet
algorithms considered a crucial step towards (Arbib and Seba, 2017). Other authors (Litman,
ensuring safe and efficient vehicle operation in every 2016) conservatively estimate that by 2050,
driving situation (Nash, 2018). between 50 % and 80 % of distance travelled will be
in AVs, constituting between 40 % and 60 % of the
Nevertheless, supported by years of research, vehicle fleet. Figure 6 shows some estimates from
development and testing in real driving conditions10, the literature of AV sales up to 2055.
different vehicle brands and models offering
advanced connectivity and automation features Another relevant ongoing debate focuses on the
(levels 1 to 3) will hit the market in the coming communication technologies to be used in future
years (Muoio, 2016). In Europe, the first C-ITS CAVs (Fildes and Campbell, 2017). As regards
safety-related services will start to be deployed by cross-border testing, the European Commission
vehicle manufacturers and road operators as of (EC), the Member States (MS) and industry have

100
Transport Systems Catapult (2017) - sc1
90
Transport Systems Catapult (2017) - sc2
80 Transport Systems Catapult (2017) - sc3
70 Litman (2016)
AV Share %

Milakis et al. (2017), Underwood (2014),

60
Rangarajan and Dunoyer (2014), Bierstedt
50 et al. (2014), Litman (2015), Juliussen
and Carlson (2014) - as cited by
40 Nieuwenhuijsen et al. (2018)

30

20

10

0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Year
Figure 6: Range of sales projections for AVs (fully automated, or level 5, as described below) until 2055 (as % of AVs of the total
vehicles sold)
Note: sc = scenario
 21 2. A new era for road transport

competitiveness but is also in line with mobility

policy goals. To achieve this, the EC is establishing
a single EU-wide platform grouping all relevant
Proper public and private stakeholders to coordinate
open road testing of CCAM and make the link
legislative with pre-deployment activities. Proper legislative
safeguards must be established to regulate testing
safeguards must and deployment of CAVs on the road, ensuring
proper protection for road users. Moreover, given

be established the pace of technological development in the field,

a rapid response is needed from the regulators.

to regulate testing A recent study has identified the Netherlands as

the world leader in preparedness for AVs, followed

and deployment by Singapore, Norway, USA and Sweden (KPMG

International, 2019).

of connected and Whether CAVs have the potential to actually deliver

automated vehicles
the full range of expected benefits will ultimately
depend on three factors: their penetration speed,
their effectiveness, and their potentially negative
on the road, ensuring impacts. Often, studies tend to be overly optimistic
about the future of CAVs by overestimating the first
proper protection for two factors while ignoring or neglecting the third.
Radical changes would only be possible once level
road users. 4 automation has been achieved13 or rather, after
the proportion of road trips taken in AVs reaches
a critical mass. Lower automation levels would
definitely contribute to improving the safety and
comfort of users.

jointly discussed three categories of use cases Decarbonisation of road transport

for connected and automated mobility (CAM): At the EU level, the short- and medium-term
private transport, collective transport, and freight agenda includes increasingly stricter regulations
and truck, and prioritised use cases to illustrate in terms of CO2 and pollutant emissions and aims
their expected benefits12. From this prioritisation, at accelerated penetration of renewable energies
fully automated urban vehicles and automated coupled with improvements in energy efficiency and
shuttles and buses came top on the list while an ambition to reduce the dependence on fossil
automated parking use cases were rated the lowest fuels. This agenda fosters greater electrification of
of all. This reflects that collective transport use transport (ERTRAC, 2017). In a medium timescale,
cases are expected to provide more benefits than and alongside the decarbonisation of EU’s electricity
those linked to private mobility. However, a clear generation system, EVs represent an ever-more
agreement has not been reached as public and important means of decarbonising road transport.
private expectations of cooperative, connected Through smart charging technologies, EVs could
and automated mobility (CCAM) are very different. act as flexible loads and even bidirectionally, as
The private sector needs to find a sustainable decentralised storage resources possibly supporting
business model that promotes European industry stabilisation of the grid (Eurelectric, 2015).
 2. A new era for road transport 22

In the electromobility field, the prospects for considered for mass production. The learning
technology developments for batteries may, curve, and thus the technical evolution for
in the short-term, include lowering costs and classical Li-ion batteries has been and remains
increasing energy density while, at the same steep (Schmidt et al., 2017; Tsiropoulos et al.,
time, limiting the cobalt content in the cathode 2018; Weiss et al., 2019) (Figure 7), resembling
chemistries (Steen et al., 2017). In the next that of photovoltaic modules a couple of
decade, solid-state electrolytes may replace years earlier. It will enable battery-powered
current liquid electrolyte-based Li-ion batteries, EVs to soon become competitive, in front of
bringing improved volumetric energy density a backdrop of these vehicles which are still
and safety (Janek and Zeier, 2016). In the long ahead of FCEVs in terms of energy efficiency.
term, Li-Air batteries, which have the highest Improved cooling systems in vehicle battery
theoretical energy density among all known packs, using advanced technologies such as heat
battery technologies, may further improve pipes, for example, can manage much higher
the range of vehicles (Sun, 2017). However, charging (and discharging) power into such a
several basic technological barriers must battery pack. In 2018, this led to the successful
be overcome before these batteries can be development, testing and demonstration of

20 000
2004 em
erg
ing
10 000

5 000
2013 1995 ma
tur
Product price USD2015 per kWhcap

ing
2010
2008 2016
2 000 2013
2015
2015 ma
1997 2016 tur
1 000 2015 e

500
2007
2015 1983 2013
2014
1956 2011
200 1989 2012

2014
100

50
0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1 000 10 000
Cumulative installed nominal capacity GWhcap
system pack module battery
Pumped hydro Lithium-ion Lithium-ion Vanadium redox-flow
Utility, -1±8 % Electronics, 30±3 % Utility, 12±3 % Utility, 11±9 %
Lead-acid Lithium-ion Nickel-metal hydride Electrolysis
Multiple, 4±6 % EV, 16±4 % HEV, 11±1 % Utility, 18±6 %
Lead-acid Lithium-ion Sodium-sulphur Fuel cells
Residential, 13±5 % Residential, 12±4 % Utility, - Residential, 18±2 %

Figure 7: Cost evolution of Li-ion batteries

Source: Schmidt et al. (2017). Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature: Springer Nature, Nature Energy, The future cost of electri-
cal energ y storage based on experience rates, Schmidt, O., Hawkes, A., Gambhir, A. and Staffell, I., 2017.
 23 2. A new era for road transport

350kW charging of EVs with the Combined taxis, buses, and all kinds of urban delivery and
Charging System (CCS) standard – i.e. enabling service fleets, the latter increasing significantly
the recharge of around 400km in 20 minutes due to the growth in internet shopping and
– with the roll-out phase of such advanced an ageing society. The electrification of such
infrastructure on strategic US and EU highway intensively used urban vehicles is also raising
corridors ongoing, and a new generation of EVs concerns and requires proof of their practical
capable of using it due to appear on the market viability, an issue not to be underestimated in
in 2019. citizens’ and businesses’ decision-making. Other
technological developments are ongoing in the
Alternative charging technologies (e.g. battery area of a smarter recharging infrastructure
swapping, wireless charging, rapid bus charging permitting demand-side management (DSM) of
during stops, supercapacitors, dynamic on-road charging, embedding electromobility in smart
charging) have triggered interest by promising grids and smart building energy management
to alleviate some of the disadvantages of the systems, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) integration.
current charging technologies, such as the length
of charging time (Spöttle et al., 2018). However, Key barriers to the mass adoption of EVs
at the moment, apart from rapid bus charging14, remain the limited model offer and their higher
the majority of these are not yet commercially cost compared to conventional combustion
viable on a large scale. In addition, dynamic vehicles. However, announcements from vehicle
wireless power transfer coils integrated into manufacturers indicate that hundreds of new
roads are still at the research stage. electric models will be on the way by 2025 (Slowik
and Lutsey, 2016), while battery costs continue
Increasing the vehicle range and reducing the to fall and vehicle manufacturers foresee cost
charging time and cost will enable BEVs to parity by 2025 (Lutsey, 2018). A significant
become a viable alternative for intense urban and increase in EV sales is also expected, as can
extra-urban use, like pooled and shared vehicles, be seen in Figure 8 which gives an overview

60
Roland Berger (2016) A
Roland Berger (2016) B
50
ACEA (2017)
Oliver Wyman (2015) Slight Change
40
Oliver Wyman (2015) Awareness
Oliver Wyman (2015) Green World
EV Share %

30
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2017)
IEI, EEI (2017)
20 Boston Consulting Group (2017)
Wood Mackenzie (2017)
10 McKinsey & Company (2016) A
McKinsey & Company (2016) B

0 IRENA (2017)
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
Figure 8: R ange of global sales projections for BEV/PHEV until 2040 (as % of EVs of the total vehicles sold)
Note: sc = scenario
Source: Tsakalidis and Thiel (2018)
 2. A new era for road transport 24

of selected projections on the future of the EV Thus, variety reduces infrastructure dependency.
market share until 2040, according to relevant Diversification and shares of total vehicle fleet
literature sources. The progress in sales is linked should be taken into account in the design of
to a range of supporting policies (e.g. emission public policies.
regulation), consumer incentives (at purchase or
operational), charging infrastructure deployment, Shared mobility
and local awareness and promotional campaigns. A transition to MaaS, especially if focused on the
sharing/pooling aspect rather than on maintaining
The evolution of FCEVs remains very uncertain. individual mobility, is suggested as a promising
Introducing a policy package with coherent pro- alternative to reducing the negative impacts of
FCEV policy measures could have a dramatic road transport (European Commission, 2017k).
effect on the uptake of fuel cell cars in the EU-28. A few relevant definitions (extracted from
A recent study (Blanco et al., forthcoming 2019) (Shaheen et al., 2015) include:
linked energy system optimisation and a system
dynamics simulation model15 to explore scenarios C
 ar sharing: a programme whereby individuals
with a 95 % CO2 emissions reduction target. pay a fee each time to have temporary access to
Under the ‘Ambitious Hydrogen (H2)’ scenario, a vehicle without the costs and responsibilities of
the policy bundle favouring FCEVs comprised ownership. Individuals typically access vehicles
investment in research and development (R&D) to by joining an organisation that maintains a fleet
improve the fuel cell system, purchase subsidies of vehicles deployed in lots at specific locations.
from authorities and discounts by manufacturers Companies like car2go, DriveNow and Zipcar belong
(both lowering the capital expenses (CAPEX)), to this category.
fuel subsidies (lowering the operating expenses
(OPEX)) and investment in refuelling infrastructure
to promote H2 station deployment. Under this
scenario, the number of fuel cell cars in use will
reach almost 77 million in 2050, accounting for
over 26 % of the EU-28 car stock. Therefore, they
should not be disregarded among the available
Preliminary
options for the future, especially for heavy-duty
vehicles (HDVs) (Pocard, 2018; ZumMallen, 2018;
studies on users’
Field, 2018).
willingness to
In fact, future infrastructure and public policies
must promote a diversification and share of
use (or pay for)
vehicles from the wide spectrum of technologies
and fuels, giving way to H2 (FCEVs), biofuels,
automated vehicles
electricity (BEVs) and others. Diversification is key
for a smarter transport sector. Energy transition seem to reflect
and the concept of smart energy and smarter use
should take into account an increasing variety of an overall positive
sources, thereby reducing the supply industry’s
bargaining power to the benefit of the consumer. acceptance of these
new systems.
With the diversification of energy source/carrier,
concerns being raised about the electricity grid
or hydrogen, for example, would be diminished.
 25 2. A new era for road transport

R
 ide sharing (car/van pooling): formal or informal highest in their ratings compared to, for example,
shared rides among drivers and passengers with entertainment-related services (Dungs et al.,
similar origin-destination pairings. Companies such 2016). It has also been found that automation in
as BlaBlaCar are part of this category. public transport is positively perceived by the vast
majority of users (Pakusch and Bossauer, 2017).
Ride sourcing (also known as Transportation Experience is thought to influence the future
Network Companies (TNCs) or ride-hailing): use of the technologies, thereby increasing the
prearranged and on-demand transport services for chances that users opt for AVs.
compensation, which connect drivers of personal
vehicles with passengers. Companies like Lyft or However, a significant portion of the population
Uber are included under this category. still has a negative attitude towards driverless
vehicles. According to a 2017 Eurobarometer
These services are already popular in several survey, between 52 % and 63 % of users would
urban areas worldwide. For instance, ride-sourcing feel uncomfortable being driven in a full AV
companies have invested billions of dollars in the (Figure 9). However, it is interesting that the
development of successful user-centred technologies attitude was less negative than that reported in
and services (Arbib and Seba, 2017). Collectively, a previous Eurobarometer survey (Hudson et al.,
these companies drove 500 000 passengers per day 2019) where around 70 % of respondents said
in New York City in 2016 (Schaller, 2017), tripling they would have been uncomfortable in a self-
the number of passengers driven the previous year. driving car or truck. This shows that as people
Likewise, in the Americas, car-sharing companies become more aware of the trend towards vehicle
quadrupled their customer base in the period from automation, the more prone they are to accept it.
2009 to 2014 (Shaheen and Cohen, 2014). As In reality, over time, other studies have presented
already mentioned, in spite of the progress made, a downward trend in the intention to use an
such companies are finding it difficult to become AV, especially as a result of the first accidents
profitable, which poses a question as to their involving (partially) AVs17.
financial sustainability and future survival.

2.3 O verview of user uptake LARGE TOWN

Connected and automated vehicles

Preliminary studies on user willingness to use SMALL / MID-
SIZE TOWN
(or pay for) AVs seem to reflect an overall
positive acceptance of these new systems (World
Economic Forum, 2015; Yano Research Institute, RURAL
2018; Bansal and Kockelman, 2017; Kyriakidis et VILLAGE

al., 2015). There are gender and age differences:

0 20 40 60 80 100
male users seem to be more willing to use AVs percentage
than female counterparts (Hohenberger et al.,
2016) and young people tend to show greater Comfortable
willingness to use or pay for AVs compared to Moderately comfortable
elderly people (Bansal and Kockelman, 2017;
Dungs et al., 2016)16. Users have also expressed Uncomfortable
willingness to pay for different services offered
Figure 9: A nswers to the question: How comfortable would
in AVs, with those relating to communication you feel ‘Being driven in a driverless car in traffic?’
(e.g. social networks) and productivity ranking Source: European Commission (2017i)
 2. A new era for road transport 26

In all cases, it is clear that safety is critical. Even by limited recharging infrastructure, insufficient
if AVs lead to fewer road accidents in the future e-range and excessive charging time. Overall,
(which nevertheless still requires many years of European car drivers’ attitudes to electric cars
fundamental R&D (Shladover, 2018 in Ciuffo et remained relatively stable between 2012 and
al., 2018)), such accidents might receive more 2017. In another JRC survey on travel, 37 % of
attention than those involving human drivers. As participants expressed a willingness to purchase
noted in the EC Communication from May 2017, a hybrid or electric car if they had to buy a new
“in order for automated mobility to gain societal car in the near future (Fiorello et al., 2019).
acceptance only the highest safety and security
standards will suffice” (European Commission, Shared mobility
2018c). It is interesting to note that in recent Automation has the potential to make car sharing
years the number of users who are sceptical more attractive to end-users, covering the first/
about the safety of AVs appears to be falling last mile of a user’s trip which is currently
globally (Giffi et al., 2018). achieved by walking, cycling or other means
(Firnkorn and Müller, 2015). Car sharing is more
Another societal concern relates to the perceived likely to be adopted by city-centre residents and
impacts on the labour force in transport degree graduates (Prieto et al., 2017). Similarly,
operations and car manufacturing, which cannot in addition to the urban/non-urban factor, age
be underestimated (impacts on employment seems to play a role in the use of car-sharing
are discussed in Chapter 10). A further issue services, with more young people than older ones
relates to a love of driving and the perception using them (Figure 10)18 .
of the car as a symbol of status and individual
fulfilment, of the unconscious desire for escape 2.4 The complexity of
(Kroger, 2016 in Maurer et al., 2016) and, what is the transport system
more, of masculinity (Berscheid, 2016). All these
elements could be challenged by automation and Transport systems are “internally complex
the abandonment of car ownership. Moreover, the systems, made up of many elements influencing
impact of AVs on a more efficient use of travel each other both directly and indirectly, often
time (e.g. reading, working or even sleeping) still nonlinearly, and with many feedback cycles”
needs to be quantified (Rychel, 2017; Singleton, (Cascetta, 2009). Furthermore, transport
2018). User acceptance is an area that requires policies have significant implications for the
further study both now and in the future, to feed economy, land use, environment, quality of life,
into the design of future mobility solutions. and social cohesion. In this respect, they have
a “bearing on many, often conflicting, interests,
Decarbonisation of road transport – as can easily be seen from the heated debates
electromobility that accompany almost all decisions concerning
In 2017, the JRC conducted a stated preference transportation at all scales” (Cascetta, 2009).
survey (a follow-up of a survey in 2012) among Dealing with the complexity of the transport
1 248 European car owners to investigate the system is the only way to ensure effective
evolution of consumer attitudes and preferences and resilient policies. However, this is not a
towards low- and zero-emission power-train simple task which is why many of the solutions
technologies (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). When adopted fail to remain effective over time.
asked about their next purchase, almost half of Understanding certain elements of the basis of
the sample decided against an electric or fuel transport complexity is essential to comprehend
cell car. The respondents mentioned the high many of the arguments presented in this report
purchase price as the key limiting factor, followed (Box 1).
 27 2. A new era for road transport

25
For example, if private vehicle ownership remains
dominant in the future (Bösch et al., 2018; Cohen
20 and Cavoli, 2018), in spite of an increase in road
transport capacity, the projected increase in
travel might be high enough to pose significant
15 challenges to the system. In this case, it is crucial
percentage

to have solutions at hand, such as alternative

governance approaches, which can help to deal
10 with emerging issues.

Furthermore, new governance will not only be

5
needed in the long run – when all vehicles will
probably be automated and connected – but will
also be required in the shorter term when new
0
technologies interact with conventional vehicles.
URBAN NON-URBAN URBAN NON-URBAN
Correct ways to manage the (potentially long)
under 40 years old over 40 years old
transition are necessary to avoid bringing more
Yes Don't know what carsharing is problems than solutions to relatively inefficient
and saturated transport opportunities.
Figure 10: A nswers to the question: ‘Do you own a car-
sharing subscription?’
Source: Fiorello et al. (2019)

In the light of previous evidence, the assumption

that CAVs will solve (or contribute to solving)
congestion problems appears questionable at
the very least. Although automation in transport
In the light of
may increase the overall capacity of the (mainly
road) transport system, there are no guarantees
previous evidence,
as to the final effect on the service level of the
system unless CAVs are included in a broader
the assumption
context of urban and transport planning. As in
the past, when road network development and
that connected
thus the vehicle-centric society was vigorously
lobbied by the automotive industry, especially
and automated
in the US (Norton, 2011), the risk today is once vehicles will solve
again to return the car to the centre of our lives
and cities, possibly to an even greater extent, (or contribute
to solving) congestion
thereby intensifying the adverse effects of its
disproportionate use.

Understanding how new technology options will problems appears

questionable at
change transport and mobility requires analysis
of the dynamic interaction between the demand

the very least.

for transporting people and goods and new
opportunities offered by the transport system.
 2. A new era for road transport 28

box 1. Complexities of the transport system

Understanding transport phenomena requires feedback loop) which, over time, will saturate
a broad range of competencies, which makes it the system again (a situation referred to as the
challenging to propose truly effective initiatives. Braess’ Paradox (Braess, 1968)). If the service
Figure 11 is a schematic representation of the level of transport infrastructures remains high for
transport system complexity. The system comprises some time, the accessibility of space increases
transport supply (the physical and organisational and can affect the location of both households
elements providing transport opportunities), and economic activities. This, in turn, generates
and transport demand (taking advantage of the additional travel demand which, over a longer time
opportunities to travel). The maximum volume scale, can help to reduce the service level of the
of people and goods that can be transported transport infrastructure (external feedback loop).
represents the transport system’s capacity. For example, this ‘longer-term’ feedback loop
The level of service of the different transport explains a significant part of the ‘urban sprawl’
opportunities (namely, the different transport phenomenon: the availability of public transport
infrastructures/modes) depends on the relationship systems (especially in Europe) and efficient highway
between transport demand and transport capacity. systems (particularly in the USA) has enabled
If the capacity increases (which is the usual way people to relocate further from city centres in
to deal with transport inefficiency), the system search of better or more affordable living conditions
is able to attract additional demand (internal (Di Mento and Ellis, 2013).

SUPPLY

facilities
and services

capacity of
infrastructure DEMAND-SUPPLY INTERACTION
TRANSPORT

levels of service space

levels of service
per
per infrastructure
infrastructure
accessibility

internal feedback loop

LAND USE

demand
for infrastructure
household activities
location location

external feedback loop

travel demand

DEMAND

Figure 11: Schematic representation of the relationship between land use, transport demand and transport supply systems
29 2. A new era for road transport
 3. New mobility paradigms 30

SUMMARY

In future, the transport of people and goods will be affected by different factors.
Apart from economic growth, which has always been correlated with increases in
transport activities, new technologies and trends can significantly change the way
in which we interact with the space. Both a decline or increase in travel activity are
possible, depending on the new opportunities enabled by disruptive technologies and
services, although the evidence until now suggests that increases in vehicle travel
activity are likely to occur for both passenger and freight transport. It is of paramount
importance to support the introduction and testing of new mobility services through a
network of living labs where people can be engaged from the early stages of systems
development. Such environments provide the necessary evidence to shape suitable
regulatory actions. This chapter explores how the identified drivers of future mobility
by road can affect the demand for travel.
 31 3. New mobility paradigms

NEW MOBILITY
PARADIGMS
CHANGES IN TRAVEL DEMAND AND USE OF TRANSPORT MODES

Vehicle automation, connectivity and shared

mobility can contribute to modifying the demand
New road transport
for road transport activities in several ways. The
simplest mechanisms are those which have a direct
technologies and
impact on the demand for travelling, such as the
availability of new opportunities (enabled by AVs
trends can affect
or MaaS services) for underserved users like the
disabled, elderly or young people without a driving
travel demand
licence. Other solutions do not have a direct effect
on the demand for travelling but have an impact
and mode choice,
on the number of vehicles needed to satisfy this
demand (referred to as the vehicles’ demand). All
possibly leading to
those systems able to increase vehicle occupancy
(e.g. car-pooling or real-time ride-hailing services)
a significant growth
can have an effect on vehicles’ demand, i.e. by
influencing the number of vehicles required to
in road travel.
serve the same demand. However, in this case,
things start to become more complex. Instead of A similar situation can happen with vehicle-pooling
eliminating vehicles from the road19, car-pooling which can reduce the number of vehicles on the
services can attract people from other modes road to free up road capacity. In turn, available
of transport. If introduced at a low price, car- road space can attract users from other transport
pooling systems can attract cyclists, pedestrians modes. As previously mentioned, this is part of
(Le Vine et al., 2014; Polis, 2018) and users from the complexity of the transport system and these
public transport (Barrios et al., 2018) both at the mechanisms have been widely documented in the
local scale and for longer-distance services. In literature.
this case, they will not contribute to reducing the
number of vehicles on the road but can have a It is believed that the other ‘sharing’ services in the
detrimental effect on the financial sustainability transport system – car sharing and ride hailing –
of the other modes (due to reduced income). This also contribute to more efficient and sustainable
can lead to a deterioration in their level of service road transport. Here the situation is even more
(e.g. lower frequency of public transport services), complex. Car sharing can reduce the vehicles’ stock
possibly causing a further shift to the road (thereby (the total number of vehicles available to people),
increasing congestion rather than reducing it). but not the number of vehicles currently on the
 3. New mobility paradigms 32

road to satisfy mobility needs unless they are also users have a good understanding of the multimodal
used in a shared way. The mechanism by which car network, the key elements in their choice of public
sharing can work is different. Not owning a vehicle transport are efficiency and reliability rather
(and thus not having direct and easy access to than the available information (Duboz, 2018).
it) can encourage a more careful analysis of the As transport costs users money, the only way to
different options available and therefore support persuade them to choose more sustainable options
the shift to other modes, although this very much is to provide a public transport system which is
depends on the quality of the alternative services. faster and at least as safe, secure and reliable as
A study in the Netherlands, where alternative personal mobility. This is evident from a recent
transport modes and opportunities are widely survey carried out by the JRC (Fiorello et al., 2019)
available, shows over 30 % less car ownership which shows that public transport uptake is much
among car-sharing users and around 15 % fewer more pronounced in urban than extra-urban
vehicle kilometres than before the use of car contexts due to the generally higher level of service
sharing (Nijland and van Meerkerk, 2017). for public transport and lower level for private
transport in urban areas (Figure 12). In non-urban
The same is not true for ride hailing. Indeed, a areas, older people tend to prefer the private option
study carried out in the USA found that, on average, more than younger people because they have
ride-hailing users do not possess significantly fewer higher incomes.
vehicles than their non-ride-hailing counterparts,
and have more vehicles than those who only use The situation is further complicated by the
public transport (Clewlow and Mishra, 2017). While introduction of CAVs. If private vehicle ownership
some ride-hailing users reduce the distance they remains dominant in the future (Bösch et al., 2018;
drive, the distance travelled in ride-hailing vehicles Cohen and Cavoli, 2018), the projected increases
increases. According to another study (Schaller, in travel might be high enough to pose significant
2018), the increase was as large as 160 % on US challenges to the system.
urban roads while a 10-30 % shift from public
transport to ride-hailing services was indicated
elsewhere (Sperling, 2018). As further confirmation,
ld

a study carried out in five US metropolitan areas

so
ar

showed that approximately 55 % of ride-hailing

ye
40

60 %
users would have either used public transport,
r

50 %
de
un

40 %
cycled/walked or simply avoided the trip if the 30 %
service had not been available (Clewlow and Mishra, 20 %
10 %
2017). Therefore, rather than reducing congestion, NON-URBAN 0%
ride-hailing leads to greater pressure on the road
transport system.

Connectivity is not only a new feature for advanced

ld
so
ar

vehicles but also provides important support for

ye
40

promoting multimodality. Online tools and mobile

er
ov
URBAN

apps are becoming increasingly available in cities

and represent a very important tool for quickly
understanding the transport opportunities offered
private transport public transport walk / bicycle
by a multimodal network. They are particularly
useful the first time a traveller uses the transport Figure 12: How do you usually make your most frequent trip?
system. However, evidence has shown that when Source: Fiorello et al. (2019)
 33 3. New mobility paradigms

Under the assumption that the price of automation

will drop sufficiently to allow for mass-market
introduction, AVs will improve the travel experience
so much that a significant increase in the number
of trips and changes in people’s activities and Some authors
travel behaviour can be expected (Harb et al.,
2018). This will happen gradually: at the beginning, estimate that
as with many technological innovations in the
automotive industry, automation will be rather automated
vehicles can
expensive and, consequently, will only be affordable
for wealthy consumers (Wadud, 2017; Milakis et

cut the cost

al., 2018), thereby increasing inequality among
transport users.

In the longer term, once the purchase and use

costs of CAVs fall enough to enable their massive
of travel
uptake, impacts on demand can be expected both
for vehicle ownership and transport activity levels.
by as much as
Some authors (Wadud et al., 2016) estimate that
AVs can cut the cost of travel by as much as 80 %,
80 %, which in
which in turn drives up kilometres travelled by
60 %. Where CAVs can be used as shared shuttle turn drives up
services, several studies show that they would
be able to serve the demands of private urban kilometres travelled
mobility with a significantly lower number of
vehicles. However, this would increase the total by 60 %.
number of vehicle kilometres travelled as a result
of their repositioning, travelling empty to pick
up new passengers or reach a specific location.
Therefore, any potential reduction in vehicles’
demand linked to shared CAVs might be nullified Likewise, in the case of CAVs, a decline in the
by greater empty-running travel. Figure 13 shows demand for public transport has been observed in
different usage scenarios for CAVs and shared a recent study (Levin and Boyles, 2015), as using
services, indicating that only with a significant AVs and avoiding parking fees through drop-off
increase in average vehicle occupancy (AVO) can and return trip becomes cost advantageous. In
vehicle miles travelled (VMT) be reduced (scenario reality, in many cases, automated shuttles could
where AVO is equal to 2.0). In the situation where, be used very efficiently to complement public
due to their repositioning, the average occupancy transport by providing the last-mile service
of vehicles will be even lower than today, vehicles’ required to attract people from personal mobility
activity in the USA is estimated to more than services (Sperling, 2018). Without drivers, such
double in 2050 when compared to 2015 values a system will be cheaper than today’s public
(Silberg et al., 2015). These results are in line with transport. In addition, greater flexibility and
the outcomes of a recent microeconomic study modularity in the vehicle concept (Figure 14
which concluded that the induced travel demand provides an example) can help to dynamically
due to lower travel costs can be as much as 50 % adapt the size of shared automated convoys to
higher than the current level (Taiebat et al., 2019). actual mobility demand (demand-responsive
 3. New mobility paradigms 34

public transport), which would contribute to further Finally, the importance of people’s education
reducing the service’s operation costs and enhancing and awareness should not be ignored. In the
the system’s competitiveness (Chow, 2018). past, this has already proven to be a very
important tool for supporting the uptake of
It is also important to mention here the plethora more sustainable mobility options (Gärling et
of light and electrified personal mobility options al., 2009; Hiselius and Rosqvist, 2016). In the
(bikes, scooters, etc.) which are now populating many presence of so many statements about the
cities around the world as pay-per-use services. environmental performance of new mobility
If integrated in the multimodal transport system, solutions, it is of particular importance that
they are a viable way to attract people to the public ad-hoc information campaigns are carried out
transport system as they can be used to cover the to encourage people to make the right choices.
first/last mile in the transport chain. The correct
integration of the different transport opportunities Another important piece of the puzzle relates
is important for their financial sustainability. Most of to freight transport (Box 2).
the companies which provide new mobility options
have never made a profit (in spite of their high In future, public authorities will have a greater
valuation), with some of them (also among the most responsibility to ensure that the potential
successful in terms of numbers of users) recently offered by new technologies and mobility
declaring bankruptcy. Rather than just isolated solutions will contribute to making the future
cases, this seems to be the general trend now for transport system more efficient and sustainable.
car- and bike-sharing providers, which reinforces the As already advocated, new governance of the
need for a more rationale governance of the overall multimodal transport system will be required
transport system, based on a careful analysis of the and will go well beyond the road to ensure
actual transport demand. cooperation among all the actors involved.

historical forecasted
7.0
Vehicle miles
travelled (VMT)
6.0 AVO

0.95 Forecasted VMT<1

5.0 More cars on the road
than people
trillions of miles

4.0 1.2 Forecasted VMT=1.2

Car can drive your parents
3.0 1.67 and take the kids to practice

2.0 Forecasted VMT

2.0 status quo occupancy
AVO= 1.67
1.0
Forecasted VMT =2
2015

Car-pooling and ride-sharing

0 takes off
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 13: Vehicle miles traveled (VMT )in the USA in the period 1950-2050
Note: AVO Average vehicle occupancy
Source: Silberg et al. (2015)
 35 3. New mobility paradigms

Figure 14: Automated shuttles can vary in size and internal features according to user needs and demand
 3. New mobility paradigms 36

To support policy, it is important that research labs have been established to test new vehicle
continues to ensure clear evidence from the technologies and transport solutions in a real-
mechanisms regulating any changes in transport world environment 20. In addition, a platform
demand. To achieve this, it will be important should also be created where these living labs
to establish a number of ‘living labs’ in Europe could exchange the results of their work in order
where new mobility solutions can be introduced to disseminate the lessons learned and support
and tested via a proper process of public and the rapid uptake of successful solutions.
stakeholder engagement. Recently, a few living

box 2. Freight transport activity

Although for long-distance transport, connectivity congestion could affect the reliability of these
and information technology (IT) could help to services, retailers are developing new options.
satisfy the transport demand with fewer vehicles As cyclists are today’s symbols of alternative
(namely reducing the number of trips where delivery options, the future will see automation
trucks travel empty), the big challenge is posed playing a central role, with electric robots
by the shorter delivery cycles increasingly on and drones increasingly occupying pavements
offer by e-commerce providers. In this case, and and the urban sky (Figure 15) (Paddeu et al.,
especially when people ask to receive goods within 2019). Another challenge comes from potential
a few hours, it is almost impossible to combine modal shifts, as transporting goods by road can
cargo to minimise travelling. Consequently, become more convenient than using other modes
conventional logistic operators are progressively of transport. More intensified road freight travel
being replaced by individual transport services activity, especially if combined with increased
using personal vehicles to deliver goods. This passenger road travel too, could challenge the
may significantly increase the transport demand capacity of the road transport system and would
and worsen negative traffic-related impacts require a significant integrated approach among
(Rutter et al., 2017). Since road capacity imposes different modes of transport (Paddeu et al., 2019).
a limit on short-term e-commerce and traffic The fight for the available space has begun.
 37 3. New mobility paradigms

Figure 15: Example of an alternative future delivery solution

 4. Transport supply system and new governance options 38

SUMMARY

Vehicle connectivity and automation are considered a fundamental step towards

making transport more efficient. Their ability to better sense the environment and react
faster and in a more rational way than drivers is expected to significantly increase road
capacity. Communication and cooperation among all road users are essential to bring
about such road-capacity benefits. In addition, vehicle connectivity opens up a totally
new form of road transport governance which enables individual vehicle choices to
be acted upon. New governance can play a key role in reducing the attractiveness
of personal mobility in favour of high-frequency public transport. It should not just
focus on the mode of road transport but should consider the whole range of transport
opportunities available to citizens. But the implementation of this concept requires
thorough real-world testing. A network of living labs where new governance can be
tested with public engagement can be a very important tool for shaping the future of
mobility. This chapter discusses the extent to which an increase in road capacity can
really be expected with these technologies.
 39 4. Transport supply system and new governance options

TRANSPORT
SUPPLY SYSTEM AND
NEW GOVERNANCE
OPTIONS
The capacity of a road network 21 depends on
many factors, such as the road geometry, its
Vehicle connectivity
physical condition, the existing signalisation and,
of course, the characteristics of its users and
can support
the choices they make while driving. Assuming
that the road infrastructure will not change from
completely new
either a physical or a functional point of view,
the network capacity will only depend on the
forms of governance
behaviour of its users in their driving choices. Such
choices mainly relate to two dimensions of the
for road transport
driving task (Michon, 1985):
which can influence
• T actical/operational choices (related to
vehicle manoeuvring/control e.g. speed,
individual vehicle
acceleration, gap from other vehicles, etc.);
choices.
•  trategical choices (related to trip planning,
S
e.g. departure time, route, etc.). reaching their destination at the right time, etc.)
– are (usually unconsciously) willing to accept.
As regards the first dimension, CAVs are expected Although, hopefully, CAVs will significantly reduce
to increase road capacity as they will in theory be congestion caused by road accidents, they will not
able to react faster to external stimuli. In reality, necessarily increase road capacity (Mattas et al.,
however, the situation is more complex than 2019). In addition, the effect of strictly enforcing
this. First of all, CAVs are designed primarily to existing traffic rules on road capacity is still to be
be safe. Although algorithms will improve their understood and assessed.
understanding and adaptation of traffic situations
over time, they will probably not accept the risks Other elements considered to be important
that humans – in order to achieve their short- for increasing future road capacity are the
term goals (namely minimising travel time/costs, homogeneity of driving behaviour and the
 4. Transport supply system and new governance options 40

0.0
capability of AVs to delay – or in some cases even 1.0
prevent – the appearance of traffic breakdown

%
phenomena on highways (Mahmassani, 2016;

ate
0.2
0.8

nr

AV
Talebpour and Mahmassani, 2016; Kesting et

tio

sp
tra
al., 2008; Kesting et al., 2010). In reality, since

ene
0.4

ene

tra
different manufacturers will implement different 0.6

sp

tio
icle
algorithms in their vehicles, these will evolve over

nr
ate
veh
0.6
time, different levels of automation will coexist 0.4

%
al
nu
on our roads for many years, and in each AV

Ma
different operation modes are expected to coexist, 0.8
0.2
flow homogeneity is not expected to significantly
increase any time soon (Xiao et al., 2018). As for
1.0
AVs’ ability to prevent traffic breakdowns, although 0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
several solutions have been proposed (Liu et al.,
CAVs penetration rate %
2018), whether they will actually be implemented
in real systems remains to be seen. Intelligent Harmonic Average Speed Km/h
transport system (ITS) solutions implemented
in today’s road networks represent just a small 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
percentage of what has been proposed by the
Figure 16: Effect of different penetration levels of AVs
scientific community. In light of how investment and CAVs in a real highway scenario
plans are being carried out, there is a delay of Source: Mattas et al. (2018)
approximately 10 to 20 years from the emergence
of a new solution to its actual implementation. AVs
can help to change this picture as many options
can be implemented directly inside vehicles by
manufacturers and require little investment in
infrastructure. However, vehicle design focuses
Only with
on user comfort and safety. Although driving
efficiency is certain to be considered, it seems
an efficient
likely that vehicle manufacturers will implement and effective
human-resembling vehicle operations (to increase
user’ acceptance of such systems) rather than vehicle-to-vehicle
communication
traffic-smoothing ones, unless this is explicitly
requested by regulators and road authorities

in place can
(Makridis et al., 2018). Since vehicle manufacturers
will gradually take over the liability in case of

an improvement
accidents, unless traffic-friendly vehicles make
them both safer and more comfortable to travel

in the service level

in, traffic will not be among the parameters
considered in vehicle design.

Taking the above into account, recent studies of existing traffic

conditions be
have shown that only with an efficient and
effective vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication
in place can an improvement in the service level
of existing traffic conditions be expected. expected.
 41 4. Transport supply system and new governance options

In particular, it has been shown that applying Glen Wardrop in 1952 when he suggested that a
state-of-the-art algorithms to simulate AVs central authority could distribute vehicles over the
and CAVs in a realistic highway scenario, with road network in an optimal way (defined “system
approximately 20 % of CAVs, traffic flow starts optimum” or “social Wardrop equilibrium”) in order
to improve and that at 100 % penetration rate to increase overall network capacity. Wardrop
the capacity of the road system being examined also introduced the concept of “Price of Anarchy”
increases by approximately 20 % (Figure 16) to quantify the loss in transport efficiency due
(Mattas et al., 2018). On the contrary, if no to the lack of coordination. Some authors (Belov
connectivity is in place, traffic flow is expected et al., 2019) have estimated that in a simple but
to worsen significantly and overall capacity representative network configuration24, vehicles'
to collapse as soon as AVs reach a significant coordination can increase road network capacity
penetration rate (approximately 25 %). by 30 % and more than halve the overall travel
time (Figure 17). In the same study, they have
As regards strategical vehicle choice, the also shown the limited impact that updated and
availability of reliable and frequently updated reliable traffic information alone (namely without
information on traffic conditions is usually coordination) may have to increase network
considered essential for optimising routing and capacity in normal flow conditions.
reducing individual travel time. In reality, however,
this is only true for unforeseen situations (e.g. Although derived from a simulation model
accidents, sudden closure of a road stretch, etc.), applied to a relatively simple case study, results
while in normal conditions information will not reported in Figure 17 show a clear and important
substantially improve a situation. The reason trend which is quite well known among transport
is that, just like humans, CAVs will also choose scientists: information alone will not improve
the best path to minimise their individual travel the road transport system unless all the players
costs22. For this reason, over time, CAVs will also cooperate and coordinate. As regards the
choose their route uniformly across different approach to achieve system optimum, the need for
alternative paths in a way that the cost will be centralised management, as assumed by Wardrop,
approximately the same everywhere23. is currently being debated as decentralised
self-organisation strategies can also be applied
The situation could change if CAVs were to (Helbing, 2015).
make their strategical choices to minimise total
travel costs across the network rather than Vehicle cooperation is already part of the EU’s
individually. The concept was introduced by John policy debate (Box 3).
 4. Transport supply system and new governance options 42

Travel time today=100 Network capacity today=100

140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0

Today Today
Information Information
Information and coordination Information and coordination

Figure 17: Example of effects from information alone and information and coordination on travel time and network capacity
(dotted lines represent uncertainty boundaries around the mean)
Source: own elaborations based on Belov et al. (2019)

box 3. An orchestra conductor for a more efficient transport system

It is very important to underline that, at least report from the discussions taking place during the
in Europe, the policy process already considers second phase of the C-ITS platform, steered by the
‘cooperation’ among all service providers of EC Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport
equal importance to vehicle connectivity and (European Commission, 2017a), an additional
automation. Automation and connectivity will only element is also being considered: not only do all
reach their full potential when the cooperative the actors involved need to cooperate but public
element is included. Cooperative mobility is authorities will need to play the role of an
understood as the negotiation of manoeuvres ‘orchestra conductor’ to ensure that all the
between vehicles to enable safer and more players contribute to a more efficient transport
efficient interaction among different mobility system. This role has yet to be defined in practice,
actors (pedestrians, bicycles, cars, buses, trams, but for the time being it seems that just having it
trucks, scooters, etc.). Furthermore, in the final there for the future policy debate is sufficient.
 43 4. Transport supply system and new governance options

Another way to increase network capacity is to pedestrians, cyclists and all new emerging modes,
regulate access to the transport system. Apart along with high-frequency and reliable public
from those highways characterised by ramp- transport, can really change the way transport is
metering control (see, for example, Papageorgiou used. However, such a transformation is as much
and Kotsialos, 2002 for an overview) and some about policy as it is about technology. The need for
urban areas where certain types of Urban Vehicle new governance models in the transport system is
Access Regulation schemes (UVARs) apply25, access beginning to emerge in the scientific debate and will
to the road is always granted to vehicles (freely need to be taken seriously in shaping the future of
or subject to a per-use fee), unlike other modes transport and mobility (Pangbourne et al., 2019).
of transport (e.g. air, rail). This gives road users a
feeling of freedom that is impossible to achieve In addition, a network of European living labs where
with other types of transport. Regulating access new options and governance models can be applied
to the road network to prevent the degradation of and tested with the direct and proactive engagement
traffic conditions can both improve traffic and reduce of citizens would be a very important step towards
this feeling of freedom. As is the case for system ensuring that the solutions adopted can really deliver
optimum, access regulation can be achieved through what they promise. This is particularly important
both centralised (Belov, 2017) and decentralised in a sector in which technical and social issues are
strategies (Gao and Li-Shiuan, 2014). strongly inertwined. For example, the extent to which
it is acceptable that individual travel choices (such
System optimum routing and access regulation are as the route/mode to use, departure time, speed
just two examples of alternative road governance to maintain, etc.) are handed over to the transport
approaches enabled by vehicle connectivity, and system deserves people’s attention and participation
thus, in theory, available in just a few years from to avoid the automation of road transport being
now. Rethinking road governance is extremely perceived as just the first experiment in preparations
important to avoid the situation whereby an for automating society as a whole (Helbing, 2015).
increase in system capacity together with more
comfort and a greater sense of reliability may
ensure that future mobility remains – and possibly
even more so – based on use of the car. This could
put public transport systems at risk and contribute
to increasing inequality and inefficiency in mobility.
System optimum
On the contrary, if used to foster cooperation
and coordination by all actors involved, new
routing and access
technologies offer an unprecedented opportunity
to reshape mobility, focusing on people and their
regulation are just
needs while simultaneously reducing potential
negative impacts. Managing the road network
two examples
by limiting access to vehicles and directing them
to avoid congestion, granting preferential access
of alternative road
to high-occupancy, emergency and other special
vehicles, as well as to public transport and other governance approaches
shared mobility operators, and by maximising
accessibility to the public transport system will soon enabled by vehicle
be technically possible. Combining road governance
with dedicated highly accessible infrastructures for connectivity.
 5. Transport platforms and data governance 44

SUMMARY

Over the last decade, transport platforms have started to appear as powerful tools
to better combine transport demand and supply. However, they are rather static and
regulation concerning their role is quite general. In the future, a single platform with
a geographical monopoly and operated in collaboration with a public authority would
be in a position to support transport governance and overcome traffic coordination
and congestion problems. In this case, regulation including, among others, pricing
and access principles, must be established to ensure a democratic, equitable and fair
access to transport opportunities. In operating such platforms, data governance and
decision-making rules will play a fundamental role as accessing detailed transport
information and acting on it requires a specific regulatory framework. Problems related
to ensuring fair and undistorted competition could emerge, depending on in-vehicle
data access conditions. This could be one of the main challenges in transforming the
future of road transport. This chapter presents the role of transport platforms, putting
forward some related considerations about data governance.
 45 5. Transport platforms and data governance

TRANSPORT
PLATFORMS AND
DATA GOVERNANCE
Connectivity and digital data technology have
created a direct relationship between the transport
Data governance
system and its users that was impossible to
imagine in the pre-digital era. Consumers enter
and decision-making
queries into their apps and reveal their location,
destination and transport mode preferences.
rules will play a vital
Central platforms can match these preferences
with the available supply of transport services,
role in the operation
taking into account capacity constraints (Meurs
and Timmermans, 2017). In some countries, for
of future transport
example, trains and toll roads already operate with
variable congestion-dependent pricing schedules.
platforms, with the
Most ride-hailing apps also adjust prices to deal
with limited capacity26. This leaves consumers
support of regulation.
free to choose their preferred combination of
prices, timing and other personal demand factors. toll-road pricing, etc.). These platforms generate
In this sense, central platforms developed in network effects: direct network effects occur
collaboration with the public sector can represent when greater consumer participation increases
a viable option to implementing the new transport coordination efficiency and therefore attracts more
governance described in the previous chapter. consumers to the platform. Indirect network effects
occur when more consumer participation attracts
The number of transport services platforms, more transport service providers to the platform,
including MaaS (Jittrapirom et al., 2017), has and vice versa. The pricing of access to platform
rapidly grown over the last decade (Figure 18). services, for both consumers and service suppliers,
They can collect a variety of transport options will play an important role in generating network
into services bundles that match the needs of effects.
different types of users and with prices that reflect
variability in supply and demand and seek to avoid However, today’s platforms are rather passive,
congestion. They may combine flexible individual offering transport services but without much
means of transport with less flexible time- and active coordination and congestion management
route-bound collective public transport services. between them. To support the development of
They may propose different pricing formulas new transport governance approaches and reduce
(pay-per-ride, subscription fee, congestion pricing, congestion costs, platforms must become more
 5. Transport platforms and data governance 46

70

60

50
Number of platforms

40

30

20

10

0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Year
USA and Canada Europe Rest of the world

Figure 18: Number of new data-driven transport platforms in Europe, USA and Canada and the rest of the world
Source: own elaborations based on Dealroom.co

dynamic and actively coordinate transport

supply and demand with a view to boosting
network effects, especially if they manage city
traffic and overall mobility. In the case of strong
network effects, one platform may tip the market
The pricing
and occupy a dominant position. Consumers and
transport service providers will become more of access
dependent on a dominant platform as the only
effective channel to market or buy their services to platform
(Carballa Smiechowski, 2018). A central dominant
transport platform can accommodate many services, for
competing transport service providers, for instance
ride-hailing and taxi services. On the other hand, both consumers
hybrid traffic with a combination of platform users
and non-users may complicate management and service
suppliers, will
and reduce coordination efficiency. Competing
platforms may even undermine efficient
management by creating ‘walled gardens’ able to
limit the spectrum of choices available to users.
Thus, proper transport governance would need a
play an important
dominant platform involving the public sector. role in generating
Access to transport data will also play a crucial
role in enhancing the platform's efficiency as a
network effects.
transport coordinator. Transport platforms can
 47 5. Transport platforms and data governance

aggregate supply-and-demand data across a

wide range of consumers and private and public
transport service providers. This includes personal
identification, location and destination data,
vehicle data and possibly some mechanical car
When
data, error codes in case of mechanical failures
and delays, parking data, pricing and financial
a transport platform
data, etc. Data aggregation across many users
on the supply-and-demand side of the transport
becomes
market gives large platforms a better market
overview than individual service suppliers
a dominant
operating through the platform. Indirect network
effects provide service suppliers with wider market
provider of
reach when they operate through the platform
compared to running a service on their own.
transport services
That makes them dependent on the platform
and weakens their economic position in terms of it can use this
conditions for service delivery. The same factors
also make consumers more dependent on the market power
platform, and they may switch between competing
platforms to get the best deals. to affect individual
The data may attract a wide variety of other transport decisions.
services providers to the platform, such as
accommodation and catering services, vehicle
repair services, advertisers and consumer retail
services, data-processing firms, start-ups and
service application developers, etc. It is easy to
imagine that a big city mobility data platform technological solutions, and consumer choice
would have exclusive access to a vast amount of with regard to information and privacy. In fact, a
valuable data for all kinds of applications. Even 2017 study (McCarthy et al., 2017) identified the
a car-only platform would contain data that far extended vehicle concept as incompatible with the
exceeds the value of what car manufacturers or principle of fair and undistorted competition and
automated individual driving services providers recommended the so-called “on-board application
could accumulate. In the CAV ecosystem, car platform” (i.e. an in-vehicle data platform
manufacturers could have a privileged position controlled by car owners) as the best alternative in
over independent service providers, if they retain the long term following the five guiding principles
exclusive control of the data generated by their that were agreed during the C-ITS platform
vehicles (through the so-called “extended vehicle policy discussions (European Commission, 2016a;
concept”, i.e. an external server owned by the European Commission, 2016d). It is arguable
vehicle manufacturers) (Martens and Mueller- that vehicle manufacturers will fight for the
Langer, 2018; Kerber, 2018). Different market extended vehicle concept and will only make in-
failures could appear under these circumstances, use vehicle data available when forced to do so.
such as concerns about competition in the In this situation, access to data can potentially
markets for after-market and complementary represent a major barrier to introducing new
services, innovation in relation to the choice of governance of the overall transport system.
 5. Transport platforms and data governance 48

When a transport platform becomes a dominant A key question here is: what is the platform’s
provider of transport services it can use this objective? As a for-profit firm, it would seek to
market power to affect individual transport maximise profits. However, utility regulators
decisions. City authorities may also decide to make may impose restrictions and other objectives
the participation of consumers and transport on such behaviour. Would the platform seek to
providers in transport platforms mandatory and reduce environmental pollution, possibly at a
impose a number of rules to improve the efficiency cost to drivers, or would it aim to maximise the
of transport management. The dominant platform welfare of consumers by minimising traffic time
would effectively acquire a geographical monopoly or cost, or would it seek to reduce pressure on
(like many other infrastructure utility operators, infrastructure and city finances? There may be
such as water, electricity, railways, toll roads, etc.) trade-offs between these objectives with some
for the management of traffic. Transport platforms users benefitting while others lose out as a result
may be provided by a private for-profit firm or a of these decisions. These are public policy choices
public authority and can regulate transport by that are partially dependent on data-governance
means of a central prescriptive approach or by rules. Commercial platforms will try to deal with
setting the rules to achieve better coordination these trade-offs in order to maximise revenue from
and effective collective action in a market with the data. Non-commercial platforms may have
a fixed supply of infrastructure (Grant-Muller other objectives although it is not clear how that
and Xu, 2014). Monopolies create pricing as well could help to manage the trade-offs. The regulator
as democracy issues and since they deal with a will have to decide how the transport platform
service which has a strong public character, they should handle the trade-offs between private and
will require supervision by a regulator concerning public costs and benefits. Some considerations on
pricing, access rules and other operating conditions. data-governance rules are presented in Box 4.

The EC’s Third Mobility Package (May 2018)

underlines the importance of data governance,
announcing that “the Commission will continue

The regulator monitoring the situation on access to in-vehicle

data and resources and will consider further

will have to decide options for an enabling framework for vehicle

data sharing to enable fair competition in the

how the transport provision of services in the digital single market,

while ensuring compliance with the legislation

platform should on the protection of personal data”. This

element can represent a strong constraint in the

handle the trade-offs attempt to transform governance of the future

transport system. In developing the related policy

between private instruments, it will be extremely important to

engage citizens in the discussion from the very

and public costs beginning to understand the possible concerns

and, as reported at the end of the previous

and benefits. chapter, to avoid the automation of transport

and mobility being perceived as just the first
experiment in preparing for the automation
of society as a whole.
 49 5. Transport platforms and data governance

box 4. Data governance

In this respect, data-governance rules will by the platform. For example, can competing
be a very important element of future policy providers of similar mobility services bid for
development in setting up new governance access to specific consumer requests in a
models for the transport system. How will fair market with level-playing-field access?
the platform manage access to that dataset Alternatively, all participants in the platform may
over which it has exclusive control? Access to have open and free access to the data. This is
upstream data has important implications for unlikely, however, as it would violate privacy and
downstream transport service markets. The commercial secrets. An alternative intermediate
platform can monopolise access to the data in strategy for the platform is to restrict data
order to extract more revenue from suppliers and access and sell indirect data-based services
consumers (Martens and Muller-Langer, 2018). without giving direct access to the raw data.
The platform may even decide to start producing That preserves privacy but also strengthens the
its own transport services, in direct competition platform’s monopolistic use of the data. Again,
with other service suppliers, because it has regulators will have to oversee the platform's
much better market information than individual privileged market overview and access to data
services suppliers. This leads to questions about in order to ensure a fair distribution of welfare
the pricing of access to the services offered for all stakeholders.
 6. Infrastructure requirements 50

SUMMARY

The transition towards future road transport systems must be supported by appropriate
technological and technical advances and all the relevant infrastructure, the latter being
one of the main elements of the transport system. Alternative Fuels Infrastructure
(AFI) includes all the necessary recharging and refuelling infrastructure, both in terms
of recharging and refuelling stations, as well as the development or reinforcement of
the respective distribution grids. Public recharging and refuelling infrastructure is a
key enabler for increasing transport electrification and the penetration of clean fuels.
Connectivity and automation will require the deployment of the appropriate supporting
digital infrastructure. In this chapter, these infrastructure-related components which
support the transition in the road transport system are reviewed.
 51 6. Infrastructure requirements

INFRASTRUCTURE
REQUIREMENTS
6.1 R echarging and refuelling
infrastructure Recharging/
The uptake of low-emission mobility depends on refuelling and digital
consumer buy-in, which is facilitated by smooth
access to the infrastructure and its affordability. infrastructure are
Therefore, enabling consumers to experience
mobility seamlessly is a key requirement. key enablers of
EU Directive 2014/94/EU on the deployment future automated,
of AFI requires Member States (MS) to ensure,
by means of their National Policy Frameworks connected, low-
(NPF), that an appropriate number of recharging
and refuelling points that are accessible to the carbon and shared
public are put in place, targeting in particular
urban and suburban agglomerations and the mobility.
core Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T)
(European Parliament and Council of the
European Union, 2014). The alternative fuels that CNG is a priority. In the case of LNG refuelling
demand specific infrastructure solutions and for points for HDVs along the TEN-T Core Network of
which the AFI Directive required future targets roads, 21 MS put forward targets for 2025. The
from MS are electricity, compressed natural gas total estimated investment needs for publicly
(CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and hydrogen. accessible AFI in the EU corresponding to the
Analysis of the NPFs (European Commission, development foreseen in the impact assessment
2019b) shows that 26 MS provided targets for for the proposal for CO2 emission performance
publicly accessible recharging points for 2020 and standards for cars and vans post-2020 (European
that electricity is the preferred alternative fuel in Commission, 2017j) amounts to about EUR 5.2
most MS. Figure 19 shows the current supply of billion by 2020 and an additional EUR 16 billion
recharging points and EVs in different EU MS. to EUR 22 billion by 2025 (European Commission,
2017l). The EC is advising that, to address
Targets for 2025 regarding hydrogen refuelling these significant needs, public financial support
points were included in the NPFs by 15 MS, some should be used to trigger significant private
of which have ambitious plans (De Miguel et al., investment. Table 1 summarises the information
2018). For CNG refuelling points, although 24 on AFI and alternative fuel vehicles delivered
MS provided targets for 2020, these are very by MS. Then, Box 5 discusses the situation
divergent, splitting the MS into two groups: one concerning the recharging points targeted
group is pessimistic while the other considers that for 2020.
 6. Infrastructure requirements 52

300
BE
250

200 UK
FR
DE
6 000 150
100 FI
EE
PT
IE SI 20 EVs/recharging point
5 000
EVs per 100 000 inhabitants

50
RO HULV IT CZ ES MT
SK HR
0 GR PL CY
0 BG ET 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
4 000 15 EVs/recharging point
NO
3 000
10 EVs/recharging point

2 000
IS
1 000
NL
SE
DK CH LU
0 AT
0 50 100 150 200 250

Recharging points per 100 000 inhabitants

Figure 19: Supply of recharging points and EVs across Europe

Source: Tsakalidis and Thiel (2018)

AFI target
No. of MS Future share
No. of MS No. of attainment
No. of AFI providing of AF vehicles
Year providing AFI existing AFI level
targets AF vehicle (range
targets (03/2017) (%)
estimates of %)

CNG 2020 24 4 020 2 990 74.38 12 0.04 - 3.27

LNG 2025 21 384 ~74 19.27 8 0.01 - 4.38**

Hydrogen 2025 15 765 108 14.12 6 <0.01 - 0.10

Electricity 2020 26 16 5949 73 452 44.26 24 0.06 - 9.22

Table 1: Summary of AFI and alternative fuel vehicles information delivered by MS in 2017
*HDVs
Note: No. = number; AF = alternative fuel; MS = member state; AFI = alternative fuel infrastructure
Source: own elaborations based on European Commission (2019b)
 53 6. Infrastructure requirements

box 5. Electricity targets in the EU

By planning around 170 000 publicly accessible roll out publicly accessible recharging points in
recharging points by 2020 (an increase of about the EU, which requires a greater willingness by
126 % from the situation in March 2017), the public and private actors to collaborate and invest
national plans fall short of EC estimates for in an easily accessible recharging infrastructure
infrastructure from the AFI Directive’s impact (European Commission, 2017l). The EC estimates
assessment (European Commission, 2013) (i.e. the investment needs in MS to create a minimum
around 400 000 publicly accessible recharging publicly accessible recharging infrastructure in
points corresponding to 4 million EVs on the road). 2020 will be up to EUR 900 million. MS should
They are not coherent at the EU level since their plan publicly accessible recharging infrastructure
level of ambition varies greatly across MS (e.g. deployment and EV uptake in an ambitious
estimated shares of EVs for 2020 range from and balanced way (the AFI Directive gives an
0.06 % to 9.22 % of vehicle stock). The NPFs’ indicative sufficiency ratio of one publicly accessible
assessment shows that the ratio of publicly recharging point per 10 EVs). Diversified support
accessible recharging points per EV will decline measures should be put in place to help achieve
in almost all MS (from an average of 1 per 6 these plans, such as financial incentives (e.g.
EVs to 1 per 20 EVs in 2020 at the EU level); subsidies for installing recharging points, tax
infrastructure gaps will remain and cross-border reductions/exemptions, acquisition bonuses) and
continuity will not be guaranteed if no additional non-financial incentives (e.g. access to restricted
action is taken (European Commission, 2017d). areas and lanes, parking priorities, preferential
There must be a much greater commitment to speed limits).

The existence of a sufficient and reliable recharging With a growing number of recharging points and
infrastructure is one of the main elements required increasing charging speeds (i.e. charging power
for an electrified transport system as it increases available), potential grid restrictions may need
people’s confidence that BEVs will reliably meet their to be tackled through targeted infrastructure
travel needs and helps to reduce range anxiety. In investments in smart grids and grid reinforcements
this context, it has been observed that the lack of and upgrades. Smart grids could enable EVs to
available recharging infrastructure has been one act as flexible loads and a decentralised storage
of the main reasons affecting user acceptance of resource that could minimise or avoid grid
EVs (Gómez Vilchez et al., 2017). For consumers to reinforcement (Eurelectric, 2015). With DSM, the
experience mobility seamlessly, the infrastructure EV charging process could be controlled by shifting
needs to be digitally connected, and consumers the charging period to times of lower demand,
should have access to timely and reliable information reducing or increasing the charging power, or even
about the location and availability of recharging interrupting the recharging of the vehicle’s battery
points. Interoperable EU-wide electromobility in case of emergency situations. This is a way of
payment systems are also needed (and are under smart charging an EV, i.e. “the charging cycle can
development), based on open standards and be altered by external events, allowing for adaptive
providing transparent, easily understandable and charging habits, providing the EV with the ability
timely price information. A system similar to roaming to integrate into the whole power system in a grid-
for telecommunications may be necessary. and user-friendly way” (CEN-CENELEC E-Mobility
 6. Infrastructure requirements 54

recharging point, smart charging on a wide scale

should take into consideration the constraints
of the power system, the potential for variable
Electric energy pricing offered by the energy market,
and information about the energy mix. V2G,
vehicles could V2B and smart charging services should be
fully enabled to ensure the efficient integration
bring even of electromobility into the electricity system.
Interoperability between the many different
greater flexibility systems and components involved is a prerequisite
for achieving the mobility requirements of
to the system both user and grid in a safe, secure, reliable,
sustainable and efficient manner.
by supplying 6.2 Infrastructure public safety
power back to The increasing penetration of electromobility in
the grid or home our daily lives raises questions about the potential
impact on human health of the exposure to
in a vehicle-to-grid electromagnetic fields. Potential hazards may
impact vehicle drivers and passengers as well
or vehicle-to-building as other users and bystanders (Ruddle, 2018).
Complex waveforms characterise emitted fields
scenario. with a broad spectrum. They are generated by
different sources (vehicles, charging devices) and
during different operations (traction, conductive
and wireless charging, communications), resulting
in different possible exposure scenarios
(i.e. exposure to low-frequency magnetic fields,
Coordination Group and CEN-CENELEC-ETSI Smart possible interference with active implanted medical
Grid Coordination Group, 2015). Smart charging or body-worn devices, and exposure to high-
can also be the optimisation of an EV’s charging frequency radio transmissions).
power profile with the aim of maximising local
energy production from renewable sources27. While there is no robust scientific evidence about
Finally, EVs could bring even greater flexibility to the long-term effects of electromagnetic field
the system by supplying power back to the grid or exposure, direct and indirect physiological effects
home in a V2G (Beltramo et al., 2017) or vehicle- are well known. In addition, to keep pace with
to-building (V2B) scenario. One obvious advantage changes at the legislative and regulatory policy
of a vehicle-to-everything (V2X) operation is that levels, specific standards on measurement and
the vehicle’s battery can be used to store energy calculation methods to assess human exposure
during times of excess power generation from to electric, magnetic and electromagnetic fields
renewable energy sources – for example, from generated by electronic and electrical equipment
rooftop photovoltaic installations – and discharge related to the automotive environment are being
it at times of high demand. From the supporting developed and are expected by 2020 (IEC TS
infrastructure point of view, i.e. in addition to the 63204 ed.1).
technical requirements of the vehicle and the
 55 6. Infrastructure requirements

Moreover, the rush towards increased battery by means of on-site electrolysers. International
power and fast-charging solutions, with the new and European safety standards are available
generation reaching power levels of 350 kW which aim to guarantee, among other technical
to overcome the range anxiety and reduce the requirements, safety conditions for operators and
recharging time, is resulting in higher-power the public similar to those of incumbent mobility
voltages, in-rush currents and controlled fluctuating technologies. In particular, the above-mentioned
currents of hundreds of amps and consequently AFI Directive has contributed significantly to their
stronger and time-varying fields. In view of the development. These standards also facilitate
massive penetration into cities, extra care in the work of designers and local administrators
planning and mapping isolated underground towards the permitting processes of refuelling
cables and managing their operation will be stations, although such processes still require
required along with establishing specific limits EU-wide harmonisation and simplification. One
for electro and magnetic emissions. critical technological and safety aspect is the
station-vehicle interface during refuelling, on
As regards hydrogen, traditionally, the major which pre-normative research, field testing and
demand for it has been driven by industrial standardisation efforts have recently focused.
applications and is still based on methane as This is one of the areas still expected to profit
feedstock, which means that hydrogen production from current European demonstration projects
is not carbon free. In addition, such hydrogen concerning captive and public fleets.
production often occurs at an industrial site
where the gas is used on-site and does not leave In addition to specific safety requirements related
the factory. Nowadays, electrolysis coupled with to new refuelling/charging infrastructure, the future
renewable electricity is the standard process for massive deployment of EVs requires a review of
delivering green (i.e. carbon-free) hydrogen. In the generic safety provisions adopted in the past
general, this technology is already mature and is for other road infrastructure elements, specifically
also being increasingly deployed in the industrial tunnels. European Directive 2004/54/EC defines
environment as a means of decarbonising selected minimum safety requirements for tunnels in the
industrial processes. In view of the possible TEN-T (European Parliament and Council of the
market uptake of hydrogen as a fuel for mobility European Union, 2004). More recently, the Third
applications, gas-specific safety aspects must be Mobility Package (European Commission, 2018b)
considered along the whole supply chain. has shown a strong focus on traffic safety (among
other topics), including the infrastructure dimension
There are various ways of transporting hydrogen along the same TEN-T corridors. However, to date,
from the production site to the refuelling stations. the approach to tunnel safety has been technology
One of the solutions used today is via trailers on neutral, assuming a homogeneous incumbent
the road. This is convenient because it does not technology for transport and mobility based on liquid
require additional infrastructure investments. fuels. Risk assessments used in preparations for the
However, the road transport of compressed or directive are based on accident statistics in which
liquid hydrogen is regulated by strict European alternative fuels, particularly gaseous fuels and
regulations which do not allow for a cheap upscale batteries, play a negligible role. With market uptake
of the quantities transported. In view of the above- of EVs already up to 20 -30 % of the total European
mentioned market uptake, other solutions are fleet, it will be necessary to verify if the provision of
required. While demonstration projects worldwide preventive and mitigation measures are still relevant
are field-testing hydrogen distribution in existing for the new hazards (battery flammability and
natural gas pipelines, the preferred solution now is toxicity, hydrogen flammability, etc.).
the production of hydrogen at the refuelling station
 6. Infrastructure requirements 56

6.3 Digital infrastructure out station locations, as well as interoperable

payment systems. Early on, the EU adopted the
In the context of vehicle automation and so-called ITS Directive 2010/40/EU (European
connectivity, digital services will play a Parliament and Council of the European Union,
key role not only in enabling technological 2010). Among other areas, it encompasses the
advancements but also giving users confidence provision of EU-wide real-time traffic information
and new possibilities. Digital infrastructure (RTTI) services (European Commission, 2015c)
must be further deployed and reinforced to and multimodal travel information (MMTI)
ensure that Europe’s transport system fully services (European Commission, 2017b). The
reaps the benefits of the transition to low- availability, through national access points (NAPs),
emission mobility. Transport electrification, of accurate and up-to-date static road data,
for example, will contribute to a greater share dynamic road-status data and traffic data is
of distributed generation and will underline crucial for providing real-time traffic information
the need to deploy smart grid applications in across the EU (European Commission, 2015c). In
the power system, based on communication order to increase multimodality for passengers,
technologies and software applications. With in particular shifting towards greener modes of
the aim of bolstering consumer acceptance, transport, data sharing of information such as
AFI must be accompanied by digital measures, timetables is key, as is ensuring some degree of
such as EU-wide mobile applications mapping data format standardisation and interoperability
(e.g. applying DATEX II standard for road transport)
(European Commission, 2017b). Indeed, EU ITS
policy initiatives are also aligned with the Digital
Single Market, notably the European Electronic

As automation Communications Code (EECC), with an emphasis

on aligning regulatory practices in the EU

evolves, so does
regarding spectrum licensing, regulatory certainty
and securing the necessary investment to improve

the need to
mobile connectivity everywhere in the EU by 2025.

The uptake of digital services for transport will

provide a digital open up further possibilities. Enabling automation
is only part of the vision – for the transport
representation system to fully reap the benefits of it, vehicles
and infrastructure must be connected, bringing

of the reality more efficient traffic management, improving the

capacity of existing links and increasing safety

as well as while reducing infrastructure maintenance costs

by continuously monitoring the network, for

requirements instance. Computation power and algorithms,

communication bandwidth and latency will be

for data processing critical for the performance and roll-out pace
of new technologies defining the future of

and data transport. All of this will be supported by transport

digital infrastructure, a term encompassing the

exchanges. systems (in-vehicle and on-the-road sensors

and transmitters), as well as physical resources
 57 6. Infrastructure requirements

(notably, the spectrum) and information (maps, challenging and European initiatives, such as
general traffic conditions beyond close range, etc.) the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay
that enable vehicles to become connected and Service (EGNOS), are being funded to make
to interact with the environment (other vehicles, progress in this area. In this respect, the Global
road and traffic signals, etc.) in a way that helps Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), the EU’s own
transport activity. As automation evolves, so does Galileo satellite constellation, is now providing
the need to provide a digital representation of the initial services and will become fully operational in
reality as well as requirements for data processing 2020, providing real-time positioning accuracy in
and data exchanges between the vehicle and its the metre range and higher (down to centimetres),
surroundings. to be achieved by a combination of technologies
(correction algorithms, more powerful chips,
In 2018, the EC published the Communication ‘On etc.). Previous experience in delivering navigation
the road to automated mobility: An EU strategy services as a public regulated service (PRS)
for mobility of the future’ (European Commission, might pave the wave regarding the provision of
2018c) underlining the importance of connectivity encrypted and secure location information. PRS
and digital infrastructure development in is a specific service available only for authorised
achieving CAVs. To provide legal certainty and governmental users in the fields of public
foster public and private engagement, a clear safety and security (police, civil protection, fire
regulatory framework is needed, ensuring brigades, ambulances, etc.) as well as critical
harmonisation while, at the same time, leaving infrastructures and defence.
room for innovation. Therefore, it is useful to
focus on functionalities rather than technological Thus, digital infrastructure is key to unleashing
solutions. To this end, the Commission has the potential of ITS and CAVs and therefore
identified a set of services, with significant defining a data-management strategy framed
benefits and a high degree of maturity, which are under a standardised architecture and based
ideal for early deployment (European Commission, on the implementation of technical, functional
2016a). These services will also dictate the needs and organisational standards and profiles. The
in terms of data and communication services. sheer size of the investment needs not only for
Among them, accurate location applications, infrastructure deployment but also for R&D is
together with high-definition map services, will expected to be overshadowed by the benefits
be critical. Positioning systems remain technically brought by this new transport paradigm.
 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity 58

SUMMARY

The deployment of future transport technologies like CAVs will be based on two es-
sential elements: connectivity and trust. Connectivity allows vehicles to receive useful
information about road conditions, potential hazards, the presence of neighbouring
vehicles (including non-line of sight in obstructed/reduced visibility conditions), as well
as to support a wide range of applications. A CAV can combine the information re-
ceived from its sensors (e.g. camera, radar, LiDAR, ultrasound) and the connectivity
systems to improve overall vehicle performance and make more informed and intel-
ligent decisions. The ultimate goal of V2X communication technologies is to provide
uncompromised passenger safety and interoperability of CAV services regardless of
the underlying standard being used. Trust in the data and the functions provided by
the technologies around us affects our professional and personal lives, as people are
increasingly dependent on complex ICT systems which support our daily activities.
These systems can be vulnerable to attacks, which can be particularly critical in the
transport domain. Cybersecurity activities are focused on the protection of these ICT
systems and their users through a combination of policy and technological actions.
In this chapter, communication and cybersecurity challenges are presented in the con-
text of the forces shaping the future of road transport.
 59 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity

COMMUNICATION
TECHNOLOGIES AND
CYBERSECURITY
7.1 Communication technologies
Connectivity and
Vehicle communications services are built on a
variety of V2X28 standards in a similar way as Wi-Fi trust will be essential
and cellular technologies have been implemented
in smartphones, tablets and laptops. However, elements in future
communication standards in the transport sector
must meet much more complex requirements in vehicles, supported by
terms of road safety and interoperability since
people’s lives are at stake on European roads. vehicle-to-everything
Overall, the ultimate goal from a transport system
perspective is to achieve uncompromised passenger communication
safety and the interoperability of C-ITS services
regardless of the communications standard being technologies and
applied.
cybersecurity
Following extensive work in various stakeholder
fora, it has been concluded that Europe needs a practices.
hybrid approach to communication technologies,
which means: both of which are mature, well-tested and
widely deployed communication technologies.
• Combining complementary technologies In addition, they are complementary as 3G/4G
featuring different advantages, notably short- leverages the coverage of existing networks
and long-range communication; and ITS-G5 offers low latency for safety-related
services.
• Being communication-layer agnostic
(i.e. the rest of the system is unaware of which This approach was reflected in the European
communications standard is being used), strategy on C-ITS, adopted by the Commission in
thereby facilitating the integration of future November 2016 (European Commission, 2016a).
technologies;
Current V2X standards are the mature and tested
•  cknowledging that, today, this hybrid
A ITS-G5 from the European Telecommunications
approach combines 3G/4G and ITS-G5, Standards Institute (ETSI) and the emerging LTE-
 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity 60

In terms of market presence, ITS-G5 has gained

an established position compared to LTE-V2X,
with fully operational infrastructure and vehicle
deployments across different EU MS. As regards
Communication technology performance and reliability, the
situation remains unclear as there is still a lack
standards in the of experimental benchmarking studies for both
technologies due to the limited availability of LTE-
transport sector V2X test devices. Furthermore, the impact of LTE-
V2X on toll collection and the enforcement of drive
must meet much and rest time for truck drivers must be examined.

more complex Radio spectrum availability for V2V services in the

EU is also challenging future vehicle communication
requirements in terms technologies. EC Decision 2008/671 (‘5.9 GHz ITS
Decision’) (European Commission, 2008) introduced
of road safety and harmonised conditions for the availability and
efficient use of the 5875-5905 MHz spectrum for
interoperability. ITS safety-related applications in the EU. This is a
technology-neutral decision – i.e. it does not make
any particular choice about the V2X technology to be
deployed in the EU. However, technology neutrality
in the 5.9 GHz band means that any technology
aiming to operate in this frequency band must be
V2X from the Third-Generation Partnership able to coexist with the other technologies which
Project (3GPP). Both technologies aim to operate have already been deployed, such as electronic toll
in the 5.9 GHz radio-frequency band. However, charging or the digital tachograph on the 5.8 GHz
they are not interoperable – i.e. in their current frequency band, in the same and adjacent bands
form neither of the two standards defines a to avoid harmful interference. In practical terms,
mechanism to send and receive messages to/ this involves defining, implementing and testing
from each other. spectrum coexistence mechanisms. The Commission
has given a mandate (European Commission,
As regards the standard specification and 2017h) to the European Conference of Postal and
commercial roll-out of C-ITS services based on Telecommunications Administrations (CEPT) to
these communication technologies, ITS-G5 and study the extension of the 5.9 GHz band to higher
LTE-V2X are in very different situations. On the frequencies, as well as its situation in terms of
one hand, ITS-G5 has already been tested for a coexisting among various technologies. Working
decade, with commercial ITS-G5 devices already groups at both CEPT and ETSI are discussing and
available and being deployed in Europe as of conducting standardisation work to analyse such
2019 by vehicle manufacturers and EU MS on potential coexistence solutions. To summarise,
the C-Roads Platform29. On the other hand, the spectrum coexistence is expected to be a major
first technical specifications for LTE-V2X (3GPP challenge for emerging V2X technologies in the
Technical Specifications, Rel.14) were publicly years ahead, especially since uncompromised
released in June 201730. LTE-V2X chipsets are road safety, interoperability and backward
currently under development and testing, with compatibility with already deployed C-ITS services
test devices expected to be available in 2019. must be ensured in any case.
 61 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity

7.2 Cybersecurity can exploit new connectivity interfaces to

tamper with the vehicle, potentially generating
The current and future design and deployment safety hazards. Cybersecurity threats can be
of vehicle applications and services must include directed either at the vehicle itself and/or at the
security and privacy requirements to protect infrastructure. Infrastructure can be manipulated to
critical functions such as driver assistance, provide false information to the vehicle or to provide
collision warning, automatic energy braking and services inadequately. For example, the EV charging
vehicle safety communications. These aspects system can be manipulated with denial of service
are particularly relevant in the context of vehicle (DoS) consequences for the electric infrastructure
automation and connectivity, where safety hazards (European Network for Cyber Security, 2017).
due to security threats are possible (and could have
a significant impact). Practical attacks have already While some cybersecurity attacks may simply be
been demonstrated by research communities related to the activity of a research group or based
around the world (Miller and Valasek, 2015). Privacy on the whimsical effort of a hacker to prove his/her
aspects are also becoming increasingly important, technical capability, there could be more serious
since sensors and connectivity in future vehicles reasons to tamper with CAVs, such as infringing a
may enable the collection and distribution of data regulation. Box 6 gives an example of an AV being
from users, thereby generating privacy risks. The tampered with to provide false information.
need for adequate support for cybersecurity and
data protection has also been highlighted by a The cybersecurity of these future vehicles is
recent EU Communication (European Commission, going to be very complex: the most promising
2018c). approach is a combination of legislative, technical,
methodological and governance aspects which
Security and privacy aspects were not adequately must be integrated in a coordinated way.
addressed in previous generations of automotive
systems due to various factors, including:

• E conomics of cybersecurity: the design and

deployment of security and privacy solutions
were difficult to justify from a market point of
view either because they were not requested
Sensors
by regulatory frameworks or because of lack of
user awareness.
and connectivity
• T he vehicle was isolated from the external
in future vehicles
world because it was not connected. Electronic
systems in the vehicle did not have external
may enable
interfaces apart from those used by the
manufacturers and workshops for testing and
the collection and
diagnostics purposes. distribution of data
With the evolution of the automotive world towards from users, thereby
CAVs, vehicles are going to be connected between
one another or with the infrastructure. In security generating privacy
risks.
terminology, this means that security threats for
surface attacks will grow. In other words, hackers
 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity 62

box 6. Regulation infringement by automated vehicles creates safety hazards

In future, AVs will have to abide by regulations The infrastructure managers (also automated)
similar to those existing today. In this context, receive data from the automated commercial
implementing and monitoring those regulations vehicles to allow their passage throughout the
might exploit connectivity and automation. A road infrastructure. An AV is tampered with to
potential scenario is an automated commercial provide false information (e.g. lower weight)
vehicle carrying heavy loads on its journey from its internal sensors to the infrastructure
to a manufacturing facility. The road to the managers, thus allowing it to use the short cut.
manufacturing facility is relatively long, but there Because of the AV’s heavy payload, a bridge
is a possible short cut where heavy-load traffic on the short cut collapses, causing potentially
is not permitted. This would make considerable serious hazards for other vehicles with
savings on time and would cut transport costs. passengers.

Below, we highlight the following actions and from CAVs. Future synergies and interfaces
areas of work to foster the secure design and between different infrastructures (e.g. energy
deployment of CAVs in Europe: grid for charging vehicles or multimodal
transport for commercial vehicles) should
•  efining a risk-based methodology to
D also be investigated to ensure that adequate
identify and prioritise the main risks for measures are taken before and during
CAVs. The methodology should take into the deployment of future road transport
account the cybersecurity risks to the vehicle technologies.
and infrastructure providing important
functions for future vehicles, including (but •  etting up a governance structure, which
S
not limited to) traffic management, charging could be based on existing European and
EVs, safety-related applications, and so on. MS entities, for the definition, deployment
and enforcement of processes at the
•  nsuring that security and privacy
E European level. Cybersecurity is often a
solutions are embedded in the design balance between the definition of adequate
of CAVs (e.g. vehicle design). This can processes and the identification of proper
be achieved either by inserting specific solutions. Sustainable processes are needed
requirements (i.e. baseline requirements) because vehicles have a long life cycle during
in the regulations or by ensuring that which new vulnerabilities can appear that
standards include such solutions to support must be addressed in a coordinated way at
the concepts of ‘security by design’ and the European level.
‘privacy by design’. The validation and
enforcement of such designs can be ensured •  romoting an international coordinated
P
by the validation and certification (e.g. type effort to support harmonised approaches
approval) processes which already exist at the global level, given that others like the
in the road transport sector and which USA, Asian countries and Australia are also
can evolve to address the new challenges working on cybersecurity for CAVs.
 63 7. Communication technologies and cybersecurity

To address some of the previous actions, on 30 and Governance Framework for Deployment and
November 2016, the EC adopted a Communication: Operation of European Cooperative Intelligent
‘A European Strategy on Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS)’ in the framework
Transport Systems, a milestone towards of the C-ITS Deployment Platform31.
cooperative, connected and automated mobility’
(European Commission, 2016a). One of the Both policies for the definition of the EU CCMS
strategy’s key actions concerns the design for C-ITS in Europe have become an important
and implementation of an EU C-ITS Security part of the recently approved Delegated
Credential Management System (CCMS) for Regulation C(2019) 1789 final on C-ITS under
C-ITS messages. The implementation of the EU the ITS Directive 2010/40/EU, which establishes
CCMS is urgently needed for European C-ITS the minimal legal requirements for secure
deployments, in both the learning and testing interoperability between all C-ITS stations,
phase as well as for any commercial large-scale such as vehicles and road infrastructure.
market introduction. Therefore, the EC developed Interoperability will enable all C-ITS stations to
a ‘Certificate Policy for Deployment and exchange messages with any other C-ITS station
Operation of European Cooperative Intelligent securely within the open and trusted C-ITS
Transport Systems (C-ITS)’ and a ‘Security Policy network 32.
 8. Legislation and standardisation 64

SUMMARY

The transition to a modern and low-carbon mobility is a key focus for the EC which is
embodied in its priority to develop a forward-looking climate change policy. Together with
increasingly stricter regulations in terms of CO2 and pollutant emissions, the transition
to CAM will require regulatory changes and new practices. For instance, aspects such as
vehicle type approval, safety regulations, liability or data sharing will need to be addressed
in the new CAV context. Flexible regulatory frameworks are becoming essential to cope
with the rapid pace of transport disruption and to enable rapid adaptation to the needs
and evidence arising during the transition. Standardisation in the transition to future
mobility by road is also discussed. This chapter considers legislation and standardisation
challenges in the new road transport era.
 65 8. Legislation and standardisation

LEGISLATION AND
STANDARDISATION
In order to meet EU commitments from the 21st
Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Main regulatory
Framework Convention on Climate Change, held
in Paris in December 2015, the decarbonisation
changes will be
of the transport sector must be accelerated to
ensure that GHG emissions and air-pollutant
required in the
emissions are on track towards zero-emission by
the middle of the century. The Commission has set
transition to future
out concrete actions to reach this goal (European
Commission, 2016b), building on three main pillars:
mobility, especially
1. Increasing the efficiency of the transport
for connected and
system by making the most of digital
technologies, smart pricing and further
automated vehicles,
encouraging the shift to lower-emission
transport modes;
supported by
2. Speeding up the deployment of low-
flexible regulatory
emission alternative energy for transport,
such as advanced biofuels, electricity,
frameworks.
hydrogen and renewable synthetic fuels,
and removing obstacles to the electrification social and employment conditions. This will be
of transport; done by stepping up enforcement, fighting illegal
employment practices, cutting the administrative
3. Moving to zero-emission vehicles. burden for companies, and bringing more clarity
While further improvements to the internal to existing rules, for instance concerning the
combustion engine (ICE) will be needed, application of national minimum wage laws.
Europe must accelerate the transition towards
low- and zero-emission vehicles. The second mobility package (European
Commission, 2017c) includes new CO2 standards
Following this strategy, the Commission adopted for new cars and vans to help manufacturers
a wide-ranging set of initiatives as part of three to embrace innovation and supply low-emission
‘Europe on the Move’ packages in 2017 and 2018: vehicles to the market and to meet targets for
2025 and 2030; the Clean Vehicles Directive
The first mobility package (European Commission, to promote clean mobility solutions in public
2017e) aims to improve the functioning of the procurement tenders; an action plan and
road-haulage market and help enhance workers’ investment solutions for the trans-European
 8. Legislation and standardisation 66

deployment of AFI; and revision of the Combined companies) and diverse categories of operators:
Transport Directive promoting the combined use from large companies to small innovators. This
of different modes of transport for freight, and a may require new collaborations and IP strategies
battery initiative. that differ from established practices within the
sector.
The aim of the third mobility package (European
Commission, 2018b) is to allow all Europeans to Some of the challenges mentioned above have
benefit from safer traffic, less-polluting vehicles been addressed by the EC's Communication ‘On
and more advanced technological solutions, while the road to automated mobility’, published as
supporting the competitiveness of EU industry. part of the third and final mobility package34.
The initiatives include an integrated policy for the The Communication, primarily inspired by the
future of road safety with measures for vehicles, GEAR 2030 Final Report (European Commission,
pedestrians and infrastructure safety; the first- 2017g), sets out the Commission’s agenda for
ever CO2 standards for HDVs; a strategic action CAM. It announces a set of actions that will
plan for the development and manufacturing impact the framework for automated transport,
of batteries in Europe (European Commission, dealing with, among others, issues such as
2019a); and a forward-looking strategy on CAM. vehicle approval, safety regulations, liability or
data sharing.
The uptake of AVs is likely to require regulatory
adjustments and/or changes in well-established The EU Vehicle Approval Framework – which
practices. Licensing for road testing, product lays down harmonised rules and principles for
safety and standardisation, data protection and the type-approval of motor vehicles put into
cybersecurity, liability and intellectual property circulation in the internal market – was revised
(IP) rights, are some of the issues that are being in 2018 to increase the strictness of vehicle
addressed by lawmakers or discussed at different type approval prior to their entry into the EU
policy levels (Holder, 2018). As regards road testing, market (European Parliament and Council of the
licences are being granted in different countries to European Union, 2018). In the near future, the
allow testing on private or, in some cases, public Commission is determined to work together
roads, too. It remains to be seen what impact, if with the MS on a new approach to certifying
any, differences in licensing conditions will have on AVs which will be "less specific and more
the industry. Even more crucial is the discussion on adapted to the evolutionary nature of these
safety and cybersecurity (see Chapter 7), and on the vehicles" (European Commission, 2018c).
liability framework. Some countries (Germany and
the UK33) have recently passed legislation addressing Within the third mobility package, a revision
responsibility or insurance-related issues. The need of the General Safety Regulation (GSR) for
for a data-governance framework has also been put motor vehicles has been introduced (European
forward in previous sections (see Chapter 5). Commission, 2018d). The proposal "lays down
specific requirements for AVs and, in particular
Last but not least, there may be a change of provides a list of areas of safety, for which
paradigm as regards IP. A recent report by the detailed rules and technical provisions need to be
European Patent Office (EPO) shows "a dramatic further developed as a basis for the deployment
rise in patent applications on SDVs [Self-Driving of AVs"35. It refers, among other aspects, to
Vehicles] … in recent years" (Ménière et al., systems that replace the driver’s control of the
2018) while also noting that a large number vehicle, including steering, accelerating and
of applications concern areas that are usually braking; systems that provide the vehicle with
not part of the automotive industry (e.g. tech real-time information on the state of the vehicle
 67 8. Legislation and standardisation

and the surrounding area; driver readiness At the same time, a similar discussion is ongoing
monitoring systems; event (accident) data at the United Nations Economic Commission for
recorders for AVs; and a harmonised format for Europe (UNECE) level, where a dedicated Working
the exchange of data, for instance, for multi- Party on Automated/Autonomous and Connected
brand vehicle platooning36 . The proposed text Vehicles (GRVA) was created under the World
empowers the Commission to adopt delegated Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations
acts to lay down requirements relating to the (WP.29). WP.29 confirmed that activities on
systems and other items listed above along with automated/autonomous and connected driving
detailed rules concerning specific test procedures were a high priority, and established five new
and technical requirements for the type approval subgroups within the GRVA to deal with specific
of AVs concerning such requirements. At present, aspects in that area. In addition, the Commission
automated driving technologies can already be aims to intensify coordination with MS on traffic
approved via an exemption procedure37 requested rules and has adopted a delegated regulation
at MS level, which is then mutually recognised under the ITS Directive to ensure secure and
by the other MS. In order to harmonise the trustworthy communication between vehicles
application of the exemption procedure, to ensure and infrastructure39. Finally, the Commission will
fair competition and transparency among MS, also assess whether any change is needed to the
the EC has recently released official guidelines regulations on driving licences, driver training or
for type approval of AVs38 (SAE levels 3 and 4). driving time.

Liability is another critical aspect that has

gained prominence in discussions about the most
appropriate regulatory framework for autonomous
transport. At the EU level, the Motor Insurance
Automated Directive (MID) (European Parliament and Council
of the European Union, 2009) and, in a horizontal
driving tech- way, the Product Liability Directive (PLD)
(European Parliament and Council of the European
nologies can already Union, 1985) regulate some aspects of the liability
framework that are complemented by national
be approved regimes. Evaluation of the MID has concluded
that, at this stage, no adjustments are needed40.
via an exemption As regards the PLD, an expert group 41 has been
set up to examine and clarify the interpretation
procedure of key provisions of the PLD as well as to explore
to what extent existing liability schemes can be
requested at Member adapted to the emerging market realities following
the development of new technologies. The group
State level, which is expected to provide guidelines on application
of the PLD and to publish a report on the broader
is then mutually implications for potential gaps in, and orientations
for, liability and safety frameworks for artificial
recognised by intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT) and
robotics. It must be also remembered that, in the
the other MS. above-mentioned regulation, the EC – following
advice from GEAR 2030 – has proposed
 8. Legislation and standardisation 68

the use of data recorders for AVs to establish AI which will develop draft ethical guidelines for
a clear understanding of who is driving the AI, while MS have established a task force on the
vehicles: the machine or the driver (European ethical aspects of CAVs to specify those ethical
Commission, 2018c). issues to be jointly addressed at the EU level.

Connected vehicles will generate a new and As a follow-up to the Communication, the
large amount of data with great potential for Commission launched a public consultation on the
downstream services. In this respect, the EC has main challenges facing the deployment of CAVs.
confirmed that it will continue to monitor the The consultation ultimately requested feedback
situation and has announced its intention in the on "cybersecurity threats and trust issues, data
future to adopt a Recommendation on a data governance aspects, privacy and data protection
governance framework that will enable data needs, as well as the different aspects of
sharing (European Commission, 2018c). technology needs"42.

In addition, ethical aspects are very important as An international comparison places Singapore, UK,
AVs should be safe and respect human dignity and New Zealand, Finland and the Netherlands as the
personal freedom of choice. The Commission has top five countries whose legislation and policies are
recently set up the High-Level Expert Group on judged to be better prepared for AVs (Figure 20).
7.85
7.60 7.53
7.30 7.27
6.92 6.90 6.82
6.65 6.63
6.41
6.24 6.23
6.12
5.74 5.71

4.88 4.84
4.79
4.44

3.89

3.37

2.50

1.71

1.23
Singapore

United Kingdom

New Zealand

Finland

The Netherlands

Germany

Norway

Canada

United States

Sweden

United Arab Emirates

Australia

Austria

Framce

Japan

South Korea

Czech Republic

Israel

Spain

China

Hungary

HRussia

India

Mexico

Brazil

Figure 20: Country scores for AV policy and legislation

Source: KPMG international (2019)
 69 8. Legislation and standardisation

The USA’s Department for Transportation has Only some European countries are well positioned
recently released the document ‘Preparing for in AV policy readiness due to difficulties in adapting
the future of Transportation: Automated Vehicles to the fast-changing technologies and services.
3.0 (AV 3.0)’ which builds upon the former Flexible regulatory frameworks will be needed so
voluntary guidance ‘Automated Driving Systems that new needs and evidence arising during the
2.0: A Vision for Safety’. Their approach to safety transition can be taken into consideration.
focuses on self-certification rather than type
approval. Box 7 discusses the role of standards in future
road mobility.

box 7. Standardisation as a market enabler

Standards contribute to economies of scale Standards help the CAV industry primarily by
– i.e. production and operational costs are improving safety in AV deployment and by
reduced and solutions are made available to more supporting systems integration and connectivity
customers – and to interoperability. While they (Figure 21).
prevent customers being locked into one single
vendor, they also ensure industrial partners’ Further standardisation efforts are also required
investments are supported in the long term. to ensure the interoperability of the recharging
infrastructure covering fast charging beyond 50kW
A 2017 report from the UK (Fleming et al., 2017) up to 350kW, wireless charging, charging-demand
identifies 15 priority topics for developing standards management, V2G integration and the underlying
for CAVs. Among them, four achieved very high communication protocols, and roaming for EV
priority in terms of impact and feasibility criteria: charging, among others. This process aims to
V2V and V2I communications, traffic and road- maintain the current levels of comfort, safety and
space management, cybersecurity and verification seamless cross-border interoperability for users
of CAV technologies for supply chain security. (Tsakalidis and Thiel, 2018).

Improving safety in deployment of automated vehicles 78 60%

Supporting systems integration and connectivity 75 58%
Supporting infrastructure development 66 51%
Promoting interoperability and cost benefits 66 51%
Promoting coherent frameworks for CAV deployment 66 51%
Promoting consumer confidence and/or addressing public concerns 64 50%
Building on and harnessing existing industry strengths (e.g. expertise) 56
Opening up international markets for UK innovators 53
Fostering collaboration and openness of supply chains 45
Attracting inward investment 33
Providing an alternative to regulation 32
Aiding the creation of intellectual property by UK-based organisations 26
Other 7

Figure 21: Ways in which standards can support the CAV industry
Source: Fleming et al. (2017)
 9. Economy 70

SUMMARY

Vehicle automation and connectivity, along with low-carbon transport technologies

and sharing, have the potential to transform road transport, with varying economic
implications across sectors. While it is clear that these transformations can offer
clear economic opportunities, radical changes can also be expected both in our
economy and society. For instance, some sectors, such as electronics and software,
telecommunications, data services and digital media industries, should benefit from a
greater demand for new components and new mobility services. Other impacts, such as
on domestic vehicle sales, are more difficult to assess due to the complex intersectoral
linkages within the EU economy and with the rest of the world. This chapter presents
some of the potential economic impacts of these future road mobility trends while
analysing research and innovation (R&I) and patenting trends in this context.
 71 9. Economy

ECONOMY
The economic sectors most likely to experience
major transformations are presented in Figure 22
The potential
(Alonso Raposo et al., 2018).
economic impacts
Road transport is essential for economic
performance: it can bring some negative socio-
of future road
economic impacts, congestion being among the
most costly. In 2012, a study released by the JRC
mobility trends vary
(Christidis and Ibáñez Rivas, 2012) estimated that
the annual cost of congestion in EU MS varied
significantly across
between 0.5 % and 1.7 % of GDP. Estimates for a
limited number of EU countries in recent research
different sectors,
are in line with JRC findings, ranging from 1 % to
2 % of GDP (Grillo and Laperrouze, 2013; INRIX,
with engagement
2014). The cost associated with the time lost due
to congestion is partly determined by the value
in research and
of travel time savings, which could be considered
as the traveller’s value of time (VoT). Socio-
innovation playing
demographic characteristics, such as gender, age
or income, have a significant influence on VoT
a key role.
(Cyganski et al., 2015; Steck et al., 2018), which can
be also affected by technology disruption such as As far as the automotive sector is concerned, CAVs
automation (Milakis et al., 2017b). Research into may increase vehicle sales in line with growth in
VoT estimations gives different results depending travel activity. The higher the level of automation,
on the given variables. Nonetheless, it appears that the stronger the effect will be on vehicle kilometres
VoT for AVs is lower than for that for conventional travelled, mainly as a result of reduced driving costs
vehicles43. In (Steck et al., 2018), the estimation (including changes in VoT) and new users, including
of VoT for AVs was 1.99€/h versus 4.49€/h for young people, the elderly or the disabled. While this
conventional vehicles. Similar although higher could have a positive effect on vehicle sales, it could
value trends were provided by (Van den Berg and also make congestion worse. On the other hand, the
Verhoef, 2016) where VoT for AVs would be equal to development of new shared mobility services may
6.26€/h versus 8.37€/h for conventional vehicles. increase vehicle usage intensity and lead to new
VoT plays an important role in the business sector business models, but the resulting decline in vehicle
as it increases the cost of doing business, and ownership may considerably reduce vehicle sales.
freight transport is of particular interest from the
automation perspective. Although research on this While the impact of future road mobility trends on
subject is scarce, the VoT computed for freight vehicle sales is currently not clear (e.g. automation
transport in the Netherlands was 38€/h (De Jong increasing the consumer base but vehicle sharing
et al., 2014). Similarly, this would tend to decrease reducing private ownership), it will undoubtedly
when automated trucks and other future road- change the vehicle manufacturing supply chain,
transport technologies are deployed in the sector. favouring new components.
 9. Economy 72

Automotive (manuf. and sales)

Electronics & software
Telecommunication
3.1 Freight transport
Passenger transport
Insurance
Value added billion euro

2.5
Maintenance & repair
Data services
2.1
Digital media
Power
1.5 1.7

1.4

0.8 0.6
0.3 0.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Persons employed million

Figure 22: State of the main sectors affected by connectivity and automation, showing value added (VA), people employed and
share of VA in the total EU-28 in 2015 (the latter indicated at the centre of each bubble as %)
Source: Alonso Raposo et al., (2018)

Any change in the automotive manufacturing cathode chemistry for Li-ion batteries, in solid-
input structure would affect providers of new state batteries and in energy density, have the
components and traditional suppliers in opposite potential to mitigate the economic impact of such
directions, with further downstream supply- price shocks. Currently, the majority of battery-cell
chain implications. CAVs will increasingly rely on manufacturing is in Asia (Deutsche Bank, 2016),
sophisticated electronics, which could positively and it is very likely that this key vehicle component
impact the electronics and software sector. will have to be mainly imported into the EU,
Similar positive implications are expected for the unless well-timed policy and business actions
telecommunications, data services and digital are implemented. With a Li-ion battery price of
media sectors, as in-vehicle connectivity grows USD 209/kWh at the end of 2017 (Bloomberg
and becomes pervasive (e.g. 5G networks to New Energy Finance, 2018), the economic cost
support data exchange in CAVs). related to battery imports for deploying 217
465 EVs in the EU-28 44 in the same year is
Relying on a fundamentally different and less- estimated at around EUR 900 million45 for the car
complex power-train technology than the ICE, market alone. Based on the assessment of MS
EVs have less moving and wearing parts (UBS, NPFs required by Directive 2014/94 (European
2017) and a battery which currently represents a Parliament and Council of the European Union,
significant share of total vehicle costs (Bloomberg 2014), it is projected that there will be over 3
New Energy Finance, 2017b). In terms of battery million EVs in use in the EU in 2020. The European
raw materials, dynamic market simulations Battery Alliance46, which features industrial
(Gómez Vilchez, 2018) show that a doubling battery-cell manufacturing projects in the EU,
of nickel and cobalt prices might lead to a 9 % projects a battery market value of EUR 250 billion
increase in the battery price. Advances in the annually from 2025 onwards. In the context of
 73 9. Economy

this alliance, an aspirational target was recently with revenues falling as a result of the lower
communicated47: the European ambition to supply demand for crash-related repairs (Thierer and
the world EV market with 30 % of the batteries Hagemann, 2015).
required by 2030. Investment in EVs, including
R&D, is expected to increase rapidly in the coming Further macroeconomic impacts could also arise
years (International Energy Agency, 2018a). through a restructuring of energy supply as a
result of the large-scale electrification of road
It is predicted that the freight transport sector transport. A shift from fossil fuels to electricity
will become an early adopter of CAV technologies would affect the economic performance of
(Wadud, 2017; Shladover, 2017 as cited in extraction, transformation and supply activities,
Paddeu et al., 2019), especially due to declining while lower fossil fuel imports would improve
operational costs (e.g. salaries, fuel) and greater the EU’s trade balance (fluctuating strongly with
efficiency in logistics. Moreover, potential efficiency oil prices) (Vandyck et al., 2018b). Large-scale
gains from the deployment of CAVs in freight electrification could also put upward pressure
transport would generate opportunities within on electricity prices, with wider implications for
the economy as a whole, as other economic consumer energy bills and the EU’s industrial
sectors would benefit from lower-cost services to competitiveness. In addition, this could have an
transport goods and products by road. Besides impact on national income as taxes from fossil
a modal shift48, the implications could include fuels would be reduced. On the other hand, the
enhanced economic integration through higher deployment of connected EVs as a flexibility
trade intensities. solution for grid management could facilitate the
integration of renewables (Després et al., 2017)
Similarly, potentially lower-cost services in
passenger transport could have a wider economic
impact as households might redirect consumption
expenditure towards other goods and services,
(depending on how future transformations
affect transport demand by mode, as discussed
in Chapter 3). On the downside, future
Any change
transformations could be detrimental for more
sustainable modes of transport in the passenger
in the automotive
sector, such as public transport, walking and
cycling (Polis, 2018). This could be detrimental to
manufacturing
people’s health, which can also have an economic
impact.
input structure
In the insurance sector, higher safety levels
would affect
could lead to possible discounts in motor vehicle providers of
new components
premiums. Based on the discounts currently
applied to vehicles equipped with collision-

and traditional
avoidance systems (Palmer, 2015, as cited in
Wadud, 2017), estimations indicate potential

suppliers in opposite
reductions in insurance premiums of 10-30 % in
2025 and 15-40 % in 2050 compared to today.

directions.
A lower crash rate would also drive the predicted
changes in the maintenance and repair sector,
 9. Economy 74

and have positive cost implications (the net impact

of road transport electrification on emissions of
GHGs and other air pollutants will depend on the
pace of the decarbonisation of the electricity
supply, analysed in Chapter 11). The net impact
An aspi­rational
of any of the above structural shifts on EU GDP,
investment, consumption and trade balance, (as
target was recently
well as on sectoral employment, as discussed in
Chapter 10), will also depend to a large extent
communicated:
on the EU’s competitive position on international
markets (for vehicles, key components, fuel
the European
etc.). The EU should capitalise on and reinforce
its international competitiveness in the area of
ambition to supply
sustainable and digital transport technologies. the world electric-
R&I strengthen competitiveness and, in Europe,
both private investments and public funds
vehicle market
are allocated to the transport sector. Business with 30 % of
enterprise expenditure on R&D (BERD) defines the
investment made by firms which, for the transport the batteries required
by 2030.
sector49, was EUR 36.3 billion in 201550. Motor
vehicle manufacturers counted for more than
80 % of the total BERD, the production of other
transport equipment made up almost 18 %, and
the transportation and storage sector represented
no more than 1.5 %.

Figure 23 gives an insight into the geospatial According to the latest JRC figures (Fiorini et al.,
distribution of road transport research funding. 2017; Pasimeni et al., 2018a), the EU spends
The scope covers a total of 342 H2020 projects, more on R&I in sustainable transport technologies
involving over 1 142 unique organisations. (batteries, e-mobility and renewable fuels)51 than
The circles represent the participating organisations other major economies, accounting for EUR 6.4
and the total allocated funds per region are also billion in 201452. JRC research estimates that the
provided. Interestingly, the figure highlights those industry contributes 89 % of this investment.
regions that succeed in attracting large amounts Two-thirds of the R&I investments from the
of funding, and identifies clusters of beneficiaries. EU private sector in the area of sustainable
transport are dedicated to topics related to
Sustainable transport, in the form of more road-transport technologies, batteries and
sustainable, innovative and efficient transport e-mobility (Pasimeni et al., 2018b). While in the
systems, is one of the four core research priorities EU the private sector provides the majority of R&I
of the research, innovation and competitiveness funds, in other major economies, such as the USA
dimension of the Energy Union (European and China, public funds are more significant
Commission, 2015a). The priority is further (Figure 24), estimated at 65 % and 47 % of the
reflected in the Strategic Energy Technology (SET) total, respectively, for 2014. In the international
Plan for Actions on batteries and e-mobility and mobility competition, China, with the support
renewable fuels (European Commission, 2015d). of its government, is developing an ambitious
 75 9. Economy

EU contribution
to region (million euro)
1
10
20
30
40
50
60
70

EU contribution
to organisation
(million euro)
0
5
10
15
20

Figure 23: Research funding for road transport in Horizon 2020 (H2020) projects
Source: TRIMIS data, including Horizon 2020 (H2020) road transport projects until December 2018

plan to create an ecosystem for mobility: it is second place. Nonetheless, the EU and US have a
the top world car producer (including electric larger share of high-value patents – i.e. more than
vehicles) and producer of batteries and is half the patents filed from EU and US applicants are
making significant investments in shared and protected in more than one patent office, indicating
autonomous mobility 53. a focus on international markets. Japan accounts
for 46 % of all high-value patents since 2000, the
R&I engagement in transport can also be defined EU for 27 % and the USA for 15 %. Applicants based
by the number of patents54 filed. Patent filings in in the EU tend to protect inventions in the USA and
technologies related to energy storage, energy China (45 % and 27 % of the high-value inventions
management and charging of EVs55 have almost originating from the EU, respectively). Notable
tripled globally since 2005 (Figure 25). Japan European companies in the top 20 for patent filings
leads the trend in technologies related to energy are Robert Bosch, ZF Friedrichshafen AG (also
storage, energy management and charging of EVs, known as the ZF Group), BMW and Daimler,
with twice as many filings as in the EU, which is in all of which are based in Germany.
 9. Economy 76

R&I investment in sustainable Share of sustainable transport in R&I investment in sustainable

transport, 2016 EUR billion low-carbon R&I investments, 2016 transport max EUR 2 billion

Europe 18 %

USA 26 %

Japan 8%

Korea 14 %

China 38 %

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 2005 2016

Public sector EC funds Sustainable transport

Figure 24: Public research and innovation investments in sustainable transport in the EU and major economies in 2016,
as a share of the total investment in low-carbon energy technologies, and as a time series
Source: JRC SETIS ( Joint Research Centre Strategic Energy Technologies Information System)56

The top world performers all come from the The EU and USA have a strong lead, while
automotive sector. Similarly, patent applications Germany stands out as the leading innovator
to the EPO in the area of self-driving vehicles within Europe. Apart from being a fast-moving
(SDVs) have more than tripled in the last 10 years, field for innovation, SDVs also seem to represent
increasing at a rate 20 times faster than the general a promising international market; more than
rate for all applications (Ménière et al., 2018). three-quarters of these inventions also seek
protection internationally, which is a much higher
share than average (e.g. 51 % for established
automotive technologies). This practice is more

Patent filings
common in the ICT industry: more than half of the
applicants, including the top four in patent filings,

in technologies
come from the ICT and telecoms sector rather
than the more conventional automotive, transport

related to energy
and equipment industries. Three-quarters of the
innovations for AVs concern ICT rather than

storage, energy
established automotive technologies. While the
big multinational groups have a strong presence,

management and much of the innovative effort is spread among a

large and diverse number of applicants of varying

charging of sizes and industrial sectors. Box 8 presents the

European countries which are best positioned in

electric vehicles have the AV domain.

almost tripled globally

since 2005.
 77 9. Economy

Country of applicant IPO office

3.5

China
Patent families/inventions thousands

3.0
JP
2.5

Flow of high-value patents

2.0 Europe

1.5
US
Korea
1.0

0.5 KR
United States
0.0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
EU-28
Year
Others
Europe Korea United States ROW
Japan China Rest of the world CN Japan

Figure 25: Patent filings in technologies related to energy storage, energy management and charging EVs in the EU and major
economies (left); and flow of high-value patents (filing for protection in more than one patent office) for five major intellectual
property offices (IPOs) (right)
Note: EU-28 = Europe; CN = China;, KR = Korea; JP = Japan; US = United States; ROW = rest of the world
Source: JRC SETIS (2018)

box 8. The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany are ready for AVs

The most AV-ready country is European – the for AV-related patents (Japan being the first).
Netherlands – followed by Singapore with Finland and Sweden host the headquarters of
Norway coming third (KPMG International, 2019). most AV technology firms in Europe57. Norway,
The study considered 25 different variables, Sweden and the Netherlands have the highest
aggregated into 4 pillars: policy and legislation, market share of EVs. In terms of infrastructure,
technology and innovation, infrastructure, and the Netherlands is predominant, not only in
consumer acceptance. Europe but also compared to the rest of the
world. The quality of the roads58 and density
In general, European countries are well of EV charging stations are all better in the
positioned, especially when it comes to policy Netherlands than in any other European country.
and legislation, and technology and innovation. Norway also achieved a very good score, second
Germany scores the highest marks on industrial only to Singapore, in the GSM Association (GSMA)
partnerships and is the third country worldwide global connectivity index for infrastructures.
 10. Employment and skills 78

SUMMARY

A transition to automated driving will entail profound changes in the labour market,
progressively making some occupations and skills less relevant while, at the same
time, increasing demand for other job profiles. On the one hand, the production of
vehicles will change (not just because of a transition towards CAVs but also due to
widespread EV production). On the other hand, the transport system will undergo a
transformation. Both trends will have an impact on employment and tasks in a range of
economic sectors. For example, land transport and transport via pipelines is identified
as the largest sector that could face transformations linked to the deployment of
future technologies in road transport. The use of a tasks-analysis approach suggests
the changing nature of jobs as automation is introduced – e.g. professional drivers
could take on a more technical or customer-oriented role. This chapter puts forward
some future perspectives for transport-related sectors in terms of employment needs,
building on an understanding of the current situation and recent trends.
 79 10. Employment and skills

EMPLOYMENT
AND SKILLS
Figure 26 shows the evolution of employment in
2008-2017 in 10 sectors which are expected to
Future road
be affected by the future road mobility trends that
have been identified. As sector information is given
mobility trends
on an aggregate NACE level59, it should be noted
that not all those employed in some of the sectors
will have varying
analysed have jobs that are directly linked to the
land-transport sector and, more specifically, to
impacts on
road transport.
the labour market,
With 6.02 million people employed in 2017
(2.75 % of EU-28 total employment), ‘Land
affecting the demand
transport and transport via pipelines’ (NACE
code H49) is understood to be the largest
for different jobs,
sector that could face transformations linked
to the deployment of these transformative
tasks within jobs
technologies in road transport.
and skills.
Figure 27 shows which occupations are
predominant in a selection of the sectors AVs cannot perform all the tasks required in
discussed above. In the ‘Land transport and most driving-related jobs and there is much
transport via pipelines’ (NACE code H49), drivers uncertainty if they ever will do (Litman, 2018).
are the core occupation (ISCO code 83) with What is clear is that the effects on employment
almost two thirds (65.4 %) of those employed in will not be restricted to the land-transport sector
the sector performing the tasks required for that but will impact all sectors that employ drivers,
specific job profile. Drivers’ occupations also play such as warehousing and support, wholesale
an important role in ‘Warehousing and support trade or postal and courier activities. Other
activities for transportation’ (NACE code H52), with occupations and sectors might be affected too –
a 21.6 % share of employment in 2014. for example, with an increasing labour demand for
ICT professionals in the computer programming,
While CAV technologies may well reduce demand consultancy and related activities sector. History
for professional drivers, they could also help to shows that, even if the short-term effects of
make driving jobs more attractive and remedy effective technology implementation had an
current driver shortages. According to different adverse impact on workers (The White House,
scenarios, the current 3.2 million truck-driving 2016), in the long run, technology advancements
jobs in Europe may decline to 2.3 million or even led to higher job creation (ITF, 2017). Recent
down to 0.5 million by 2040 (ITF, 2017). Today, estimations of the number of jobs endangered
 10. Employment and skills 80

7 000.0

6 000.0

5 000.0
Persons employed thousands

4 000.0

3 000.0

2 000.0

1 000.0

0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Land transport and transport via pipelines Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Computer programming, consultancy and related activities
Warehousing and support activities for transportation Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
Manufacture of electrical equipment Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security
Telecommunications Information service activities

Figure 26: Evolution of employment in EU-28 selected economic sectors 2008-2017 in thousands
Source: own elaborations using data from Eurostat Labour Force Survey (LFS)60

Computer programming,
consultancy and related activities

Land transport
and transport via pipelines

Warehousing and support

activities for transportation

Wholesale, retail and repair

of motor vehicles

Manufacture of motor vehicles

0% 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %

Drivers and mobile plant operators Clerical support workers Technicians and associate professionals
Managers Elementary occupations Services and sales workers
Metal, machinery and related trades workers Professionals Craft and related trades workers
Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Figure 27: Occupational profiles for specific transport-related sectors for EU-28 in 2014
Source: own elaborations using data from the European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database61
 81 10. Employment and skills

by automation range from 47 % of US jobs in one

study (Frey and Osborne, 2017) to just 9 % of jobs in
OECD countries by other authors (Arntz et al., 2016). While connected
The latter figure focuses on the automation of
tasks within occupations and suggests the changing and automated
nature of jobs as automation is introduced.
vehicle technol-
Further impacts on employment are also expected
from the electrification of road transport. A ogies may
greater deployment of BEVs could reduce demand
for the labour force employed in ‘Wholesale, retail well reduce demand
and repair of motor vehicles’ (NACE code G45).
Studies (Danielis et al., 2018; Mitropoulos et al., for professional
2017; Letmathe and Suares, 2017) investigating
the cost of vehicle ownership have predicted a drivers, they could
fall in maintenance costs for BEVs of between
15-30 % compared to ICE vehicles, based on
also help to make
the structural differences and characteristics of
these vehicles. Evidence gathered in support of
driving jobs more
the EC’s ‘Proposal for post-2020 CO2 targets for
cars and vans’ (European Commission, 2017j) attractive.
suggests that employment impacts could also be
expected in the ‘Manufacture of motor vehicles,
trailers and semi-trailers’. Based on scenarios for
the uptake of various power-trains, the ‘Electric skills and would receive a premium for those
Mobility and Employment’ study (Fraunhofer IAO, capabilities compared to the current situation. On
2012) analysed how electrification of the power the other hand, as AVs become more developed, it
train affects personnel structures. In all scenarios, is possible that the wages of ICT workers (software
employment is projected to be higher in 2030 engineers, database analysts, computer engineers,
compared to the starting point, although the etc.) will rise (Cutean, 2017). However, a recent study
BEV scenario is expected to be the least labour- has shown that, for the time being, the salaries of
intensive scenario in the long run. The study also drivers working for shared mobility service providers
highlights the positive role of hybrid vehicles in are close to the poverty line (Ridester, 2018). It is
the transition phase in terms of total employment therefore very important to monitor how this trend
in vehicle manufacturing, resulting from a higher will evolve to protect the population concerned.
number of components.
A transition towards CAVs would impact the skills
The position within a country’s wage structure required for different job profiles in some sectors,
is a relatively good proxy for understanding how including vehicle production and maintenance and
attractive a specific economic sector could be for transport. This presents a challenge for education
the available labour force or young people entering and training systems which have to equip future
the labour market (Figure 28). The deployment of graduates with the necessary knowledge and
future vehicle technologies in the transport sector competencies. It can also affect the existing
could influence countries’ wage structures. It seems workforce which might need additional training
plausible that in future drivers could be required to in newly required skills to make the successful
have a more technical background and enhanced transition towards new job opportunities.
 10. Employment and skills 82

100

90

80

70
Average percentile position

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
RO ES LU DE AT NL UK IT FR SE FI LV HR PL LT GR BE HU PT CZ DK EE SK BG SI MT IE CY
EU-28 countries
Manufacture of motor vehicles Wholesale, retail and repair of motor vehicles
Land transport sector and transport via pipelines Warehousing and support activities for transportation
Computer programming, consultancy and related activities Manufacture of electrical equipment

Figure 28: Relative wage position for specific transport-related sectors in EU Member States in 201462
Source: own elaborations using data from the European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database63

For example, all types of drivers will be knowledge. Furthermore, it is relevant to note the
significantly affected by CAV technologies: taxi current low levels of ICT use in the three driver
and bus, metro, urban rail, truck, public transport groups, whereas there will be a growing demand
and delivery drivers are all expected to lose for ICT skills in the future64.
many of their duties. In addition to potential
reductions in the number of drivers needed, the Future vehicle technologies have the potential
role of professional drivers would be radically to change the task structure of future driving
transformed and could turn into a more technical occupations. Therefore, it is of the utmost
or customer-oriented role. importance to identify the skillset required to
master new tasks in order to support policies
Figure 29 presents the standardised task score for that ensure adaptation of the labour force to new
the occupation ‘Drivers and mobile plant operators’ requirements and the respective training of young
(ISCO code 83) for different sectors where this professionals. According to the Skillful project
occupation represents an important part of (Skillful project, 2017), in a transition period where
employment. The indicators summarised are based transport is partly automated, drivers will have
on the framework developed by (Fernández-Macías to learn how to use automation applications and
et al., 2016). Driving tasks require low to medium will have to become familiar with technology and
skills over most areas with small peaks in technical information sharing in order to provide mobility
literacy, problem-solving, and repetitive and services. Taxi drivers could provide e-services on
standardised tasks, while teamwork requirements the road (e.g. ticketing). At an advanced stage
are low. The fact that technical literacy tasks are of automation, they could operate vehicles from
moderately high might help drivers to gather new control centres (ITF, 2017).
 83 10. Employment and skills

Drivers and mobile plant operators

physical intellectual literacy numeracy problem solving social methods tools
1
0.9
0.8
Task intensity

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

programming
accounting
humanities

autonomy
managing

repetitive
teamwork

machines
technical

teaching

office ICT
business

standard
problem
analytic
dexterity
strength

solving

serving

selling
Task content, methods and tools
land transport and transport via pipelines warehousing and support activities for transportation
postal and courier activities

Figure 29: Task profile of drivers and mobile plant operators

Source: own elaborations using data from the European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database65

The deployment of CAV technologies could programming, consultancy and related activities
increase the number of high-skill jobs related sector’ (NACE code 62).
to computer, electronics and software since
the demand for IT specialists – who can create, Both occupations exhibit a similar distribution of
manage and operate specific transport-related tasks, characterised by more pronounced peaks
software and mobile computerised systems – will and troughs than the aforementioned drivers’
increase (Skillful project, 2017). Figure 30 presents profile. Analytic and programming tasks are more
the standardised task score for two categories important in the work of ICT professionals. This
of occupations pre-eminent in the ‘Computer difference could be attributed to the fact that ICT

Computer programming, consultancy and related activities

physical intellectual literacy numeracy problem solving social methods tools
1
0.9
0.8
Task intensity

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
programming
accounting
humanities

autonomy
managing

repetitive
teamwork

machines
technical

teaching

office ICT
business

standard
problem
analytic
dexterity
strength

solving

serving

selling

Task content, methods and tools

ICT professionals ICT technicians

Figure 30: Task profile of ICT professionals and technicians

Source: own elaborations using data from the European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database66
 10. Employment and skills 84

professionals must perform R&D activities, while – have been identified as emerging during the
ICT technicians mainly ensure the smooth running transition to future mobility (Skillful project,
of the systems. The skills set currently required 2017). While the first group will analyse the
for both groups can be seen as an example of interaction between the road and vehicle, the
which additional skills will become increasingly second will develop custom software to respond
demanded in the transport sector during the to the sophistication of vehicles’ electronic
transition to vehicle automation – especially those and digital features. Recent labour market
skills related to problem-solving, autonomy, and experiences suggest that new occupations will
office ICT. For instance, the maintenance and be mainly skewed on the higher part of skills
repair industry will require ICT skills in addition distribution (ITF, 2017).
to traditional vehicle-repair skills (Thierer and
Hagemann, 2015). Several considerations concerning the training of
professional drivers are presented in Box 9.
ICT automotive specialists, programmers and
software developers will have to specialise in new The more gradual the introduction of future
programming languages for industry and mobile- mobility technologies, the higher the probability
phone-service applications, while mechanical and that negative implications on employment can
mechatronic engineers will have to acquire skills in be absorbed by European society’s economic
machine learning, computer sciences and big data system. A slow CAV uptake or an informative
in response to the introduction of automation in awareness campaign could enable workers to
the transport sector. It is important to note that a qualify on time and mitigate their transition
shortage of ICT professionals has been identified costs (ITF, 2017). To support transition,
for 2020 (European Commission, 2016c). retraining or income assistance programmes
could be used (Rea et al., 2017), as well as other
Two new occupations – ‘system analysts’ and measures such as change management or
‘electronic technicians and software engineers’ social dialogue 67.

box 9. Training programmes for professional drivers

New training programmes for professional future technologies like automation, making
drivers are currently being undertaken by this one area on which to possibly target future
large truck companies (for instance, Scania educational and training efforts (Yankelevich et
(Salvetti, 2017)), to keep abreast of the latest al., 2018). However, the adoption of automation
technologies (e.g. collision avoidance, driver- technologies might come at a later stage
awareness systems) and ensure that drivers are for small truck companies, given the high
adequately trained to use them (Yankelevich investment needed to change the fleet. Directive
et al., 2018). The situation for small truck 2003/59/EC sets some requirements regarding
companies is different as they mainly rely on the initial qualification and periodic training of
training provided by truck dealers. This suggests professional drivers for the carriage of goods or
that drivers from small truck companies might passengers (European Parliament and Council of
need support in order to be prepared for the European Union, 2003).
 85 10. Employment and skills

The role
of professional
drivers would
be radically
transformed
and could turn into
a more technical
or customer-
oriented role.
 11. Energy use and emissions 86

SUMMARY

Future trends in road transport promise to support the reduction of energy consumption,
air pollutant and CO2 emissions from the transport sector. Vehicle electrification has
certainly played a major role in this respect, both in terms of contributions towards
improving local air quality and overall energy consumption and CO2 emissions
(including in-use and life-cycle perspectives). However, combined with the other trends,
especially as regards an increase in vehicle activities, the net reduction in transport’s
contribution to overall GHG emissions and energy consumption might turn out to be
less pronounced than expected. Future transport governance will need to ensure that
the transport sector will be able to deliver both in terms of higher efficiency and
lower energy consumption. This chapter presents some implications of future vehicle
technologies as regards energy use and emissions.
 87 11. Energy use and emissions

ENERGY USE AND

EMISSIONS
Transport represents almost a quarter of Europe’s
GHG emissions and, together with heating, is the
Although future
main cause of air pollution in cities. The transport
sector has not seen the same gradual decline
trends in road
in emissions as other sectors: emissions only
started to fall in 2007 and still remain higher
transport could
than in 1990 (Figure 31). Within the transport
sector, road transport is by far the biggest
reduce energy use
emitter, accounting for more than 70 % of all
GHG emissions from transport in 2014. Between
and emissions,
2007 and 2013, there was a decline in emissions
from road transport (-10 %) due – among other
growth in travel
factors – to the economic downturn. However,
since then they have been picking up and by
activity might
2016, final energy consumption in transport was
comparable to that in 2005.
counterbalance
From the point of view of air-quality-related
such benefits.
emissions (e.g. for nitrogen oxides – NO2, primary
particulate matter), a downward trend can be targets for LDVs and HDVs for the period post-
observed in the period from 1990 to 2016 for 2020 (European Commission, 2017c; European
the transport sector 69. Nonetheless, air quality Commission, 2018b)70. The strategy is complex
in cities is still an issue which is linked to the and very comprehensive, requiring all actors
transport sector mainly for the increasing NO2 involved, including cities and local authorities, to
concentration in urban areas. play their role in delivering it.

Achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development On 28 November 2018, the Commission presented
Goals (SDGs) requires reducing the pressure its strategic long-term vision for a prosperous,
from the transport sector on the environment modern, competitive and climate-neutral economy
(European Economic and Social Committee, by 2050 (European Commission, 2018a). The
2018). To this end, the EC defined a strategy in-depth analysis in support of Communication
and a series of practical legislative actions for COM(2018)773 ‘A Clean Planet for all – A European
the period 2016-2018 (European Commission, long-term strategic vision for a prosperous,
2016b; European Commission, 2017c; European modern, competitive and climate neutral economy’
Commission, 2017e; European Commission, indicates that, in 2017, transport emissions,
2018b) (see Chapter 8 on legislation and excluding international aviation and maritime,
standardisation), including new CO2 emission represented close to 22 % of total emissions.
 11. Energy use and emissions 88

GHG emissions from transport continue to rise

and, in 2017, were 20 % higher than in 1990
10 % (excluding international aviation and maritime).
CO2 biomass
3% The strategy (European Commission, 2018a)
international
shipping makes the shift to a clean, safe and connected
26 % mobility one of the top strategic priorities
3% energy supply
international aviation to deliver on the Paris Agreement and to
ensure a competitive and climate-neutral EU
3% economy by 2050. It highlights the possibility
waste
of decarbonising the transport sector by using
alternative means of transport, connected and
10 %
agriculture automated driving combined with the roll-out of
EVs and enhanced use of alternative fuels.

17 %
industry While it recognises that different types of
11 %
residential/commercial transport will have different needs, the strategy
18 % identifies road transport as the mode where
land transport electrification could be most suitable

-
2 000

1 800

1 600

1400
MT CO2 equivalent

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year

energy supply land transport agriculture

waste international shipping CO2 biomass
industry international aviation residential/commercial

Figure 31: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by source in the EU-28 in 2015 (above) and its evolution in the period 1990-2015 (below)
Note: * land transport includes international aviation but excludes international maritime
Source: own elaborations based on European Environment Agency (2012) and the EC's Directorate-General for Climate Action website68
 89 11. Energy use and emissions

(in particular for cars and vans, but also for buses,
powered two-wheelers and e-bikes, and possibly
urban delivery).

In 2016, liquid fossil fuels represented 95 % of Air quality in

cities is still an issue
the energy consumed in the transport sector: air
transport and waterborne transport relied almost

which is linked to
entirely on petroleum products, road transport
depended on petroleum products for 95 % of

the transport sector

its energy use, and rail transport for 30 % of its
energy use. The EU share of renewable energy in

mainly for the increasing

transport reached 7.1 % in 2016.

NO2 concentration
In 2017, for the first time, petrol cars became the
most sold vehicles in the EU ahead of diesel cars,
constituting almost 53 % of sales.

The role of biofuels in driving down emissions is

in urban areas.
discussed in Box 10.

box 10. Decarbonising road transport with biofuels

Biodiesel is the most widely used form of renewable as for fossil fuels. Their GHG emissions reduction
energy in transport with 11 million tonnes of oil capacity is linked to the notion of ‘biogenic carbon
equivalent (Mtoe) in 2016, followed by bioethanol content’ which – simply put – means the carbon
with 2.6 Mtoe. The consumption of biofuels has released during combustion is sequestered from
declined slightly since 2014 from the peak levels the atmosphere while the feedstocks were growing.
registered in 2012. Nevertheless, biofuel supply chains are dependent
on fossil fuels from feedstock cultivation (including
Biofuel mandates in the EU and elsewhere in the fertiliser applications) for conversion into drop-in
world require either an increase in agricultural fuels and distribution to point of use. For biofuels
production or a reduction in feedstock to contribute to net emission reductions, the
consumption by other sectors. If feedstock is sum of the carbon released by biofuels at every
made available because the use of crops for food stage of their production and conversion and
is reduced, there is no induced change in land use any associated emissions of CO2eq GHG must
although there is a conflict with food security. If be less than the carbon emitted by using fossil
feedstock production rises across the system as a fuels such as gasoline and diesel. Considering the
result of the policy on biofuels, this will generally wide variety of feedstocks and the soils on which
come with an increase in land use for agriculture, they are grown, the performance levels in terms
causing land-use change either directly or indirectly. of emission reduction potential are different,
with some enabling a reduction in emissions
Biofuels enable a reduction in GHG emissions and others not contributing to any net savings
even though tailpipe emissions are the same compared to fossil fuels.
 11. Energy use and emissions 90

In 2016, renewable electricity in transport their potential impacts by 2050. They also defined
represented 1.9 Mtoe, and its contribution four road-vehicle-fleet composition scenarios with
has recently increased significantly, with the different degrees of fleet electrification (HE - highly
vast majority being consumed in rail transport electrified, HEH – highly electrified + hydrogen, ME
(only around 2 % in road transport) (European – moderately electrified, and Mix – mixed scenario).
Commission, 2018a). JRC’s DIONE fleet impact model was used to derive
quantitative scenario results (Krause et al., 2019).
The average specific fuel consumption of the Figure 32 shows the resulting real-world CO2
EU’s passenger car fleet dropped from around 7.4 emissions under the different fleet-composition
litres/100km in 2005 to 6.9 litres/100km in 2015. scenarios. According to the study, ambitious
However, the average CO2 emissions from a new reductions in CO2 emissions from road transport of
car sold in the EU rose by 0.4 gCO2/km in 2017 more than 60 % compared to 1990 (black line in the
to 118.5 gCO2/km, according to provisional data figure), are technically achievable by 2050. In this
published by the European Environment Agency case, a combined approach of fleet electrification
(EEA) (European Environment Agency, 2018a). and technical measures for improving vehicle
efficiency, making transport smoother and reducing
Going forward, the decarbonisation of road activity, is required.
transport will be key to achieving the EU’s
climate objectives. Given the current market share and existing
projects, in the study, EVs mainly refer to BEVs.
The European Road Transport Advisory Council However, the same results (tank-to-wheel CO2
(ERTRAC) has carried out a study on the technical emissions) would be achieved with FCEVs.
feasibility of European road transport CO2 emission
reduction by 2050. Within its CO2 working group, Alongside the EC’s long-term strategy, in the
ERTRAC experts identified detailed measures for Global Climate and Energy Outlook 2018
improving vehicle efficiency, making transport (Keramidas et al., 2018) the JRC analysed GHG
smoother, and reducing transport, and assessed emissions in transport (not only road) looking at

1 000
900
800
700
600
MtCO2

500
400
300
200
100
0
EU-28 Ref EUCO30, 40 % of HE HEH ME Mix HE HE HEH HEH ME ME Mix Mix
2015 2016 2030 1990 RD Base Base Base Base Opt Pess Opt Pess Opt Pess Opt Pess
2050
References Fleet composition effect, All measures employed
no measures (A&B&C)

Figure 32: 2050 road transport tank-to-wheel million tonnes CO2 emissions (MtCO2), references, base scenarios and all measures
Note: HE = highly electrified, HEH = highly electrified + hydrogen, ME = moderately electrified, and Mix = mixed scenario
Source: own elaborations based on Krause et al. (forthcoming 2019)
 91 11. Energy use and emissions

Drivers Options

2.7
-0.1
10
-0.7
-0.7
8 8.0 -0.8

-1.5
GtCO2-eq

4 4.0
-2.9

50
h
15

y
ls

n
ns
iss CO
io 2

tc
y

nc
ge

io
ue

20
ilit
20

wi

ie
at
em on-

o
of
ob

ss

fic
dr

fic

ns
ns

Bi
N
M

Hy

ef
el

io
tri
io

fu

iss
iss

ec

gy

Em
il

El

er
Em

ss

En
Fo

Figure 33: Transport GHG mitigation options from 2015 to 2050, central 2 °C scenario, world, in billion tonnes
of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2 -eq)
Note: ‘Mobility’: greater emissions due to the growth in population and the economy (passenger and freight traffic). ‘Hydrogen’,
‘Biofuels’, ‘Electrification’: emissions prevented by the use of these fuels (emissions from their production accounted elsewhere).
‘Fossil fuels switch’: substitution of oil with natural gas and synthetic methane – includes international aviation and maritime bunkers.
Source: POLES-JRC 2018 (Keramidas et al., 2018)

a broader diversification in the fuel mix across Vilchez et al., 2017; Arbib and Seba, 2017) and
modes (electrification, biofuels, hydrogen, natural to the wide availability of recharging points for
gas, synthetic fuels) as well as technological users (European Parliament and Council of the
fuel-efficiency gains and other operational European Union, 2014).
improvements. The results of the study show
that global GHG emissions in transport could be In addition to CO2, EVs will have an immediate
halved between 2015 and 2050, contributing to effect on air quality as they come with no tail-
mitigation of global warming to 2 °C and below pipe emissions, even if non-exhaust emissions
by the end of the century (Figure 33). from traffic remain, and there could be a switch
of emissions from cities to rural areas where
From all the scenarios analysed in the different energy is produced (depending on the mix of
studies, it is clear that a significant contribution energy sources used). In any case, where there
to reducing CO2 emissions from transport will is maximum human exposure (namely in the city
come from vehicle electrification. The new centres), EVs represent a plug-and-play solution
European CO2 targets for passenger cars set an to improve the current situation. The JRC studies
ambitious 37.5 % reduction of CO2 emissions in highlight the potential for synergies between
2030 compared to 2020 levels – this cannot air quality and climate policy, both in the global
be achieved without a significant market share context of the Paris Agreement (Vandyck et al.,
of PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs. This will be possible 2018a, Kitous et al., 2017) and at the city level
thanks to a significant reduction in the vehicle for the Covenant of Mayors (Rivas et al., 2015;
price expected in the coming years (Gómez Monforti-Ferrario et al., 2018).
 11. Energy use and emissions 92

Returning to CO2, it is important to underline to serve the same transport demand. As already
that the effectiveness of EVs in reducing overall mentioned, the complexity of the transport
CO2 emissions also depends on the energy mix sector may jeopardise the effect of some of the
used to produce electrical energy and on the aforementioned strategies (e.g. as recent evidence
CO2 emissions from vehicle production and end- has shown (Barrios et al., 2018), if ride-sharing
of-life (EoL) (namely from its entire life cycle). services attract large numbers of people from
A recent study from the International Energy public transport, they will lead to an increase
Agency shows that when analysing the current in overall energy consumption and pollution).
energy production mix in the 35 most-developed Therefore, a new and more comprehensive
countries, on average, EVs are able reduce governance of the transport system will be
overall CO2 emissions by 25-30 % (International needed which aims to optimise the number of
Energy Agency, 2018b). Bearing in mind the vehicles to serve the overall transport demand.
improvements that will also come from the Interestingly, support for this may also come from
electric energy production sector, it is expected EV deployment. Indeed, a recent survey (Donati
that this improvement will be even higher in the et al., 2015) has shown that EV users tend to be
future. more parsimonious than others about the choices
they make (in terms of distance travelled and
If the EV market evolves as expected, the future use of the car). As discussed previously, affecting
challenge will certainly be in the effective users’ perception of freedom with respect to
management of the electricity grid which will their private or individual vehicle and their
need to cope with peaks of increased demand travel choices is the first and most effective
when thousands of vehicles simultaneously way to reduce car use and therefore the
request electric energy to recharge their related negative impacts of transport.
batteries (Paffumi et al., 2015). Support for
this problem may come from FCEVs, where the The way in which a vehicle is operated
production of the energy carrier and refuelling the introduces a very high degree of variability
vehicle does not need to happen simultaneously, and unpredictability into energy consumption
as is the case for grid-based recharging of EVs. calculations71. Lighter and more aerodynamic
Whether FCEVs will reach sufficient maturity to vehicles will have better fuel economy, as will
enter the vehicle market on a large scale and a better road infrastructures. Truck platooning, for
reasonable price remains to be seen. example, can reduce the energy consumption of
vehicles following each other closely by reducing
Finally, in addition to a change in the vehicles’ the aerodynamic resistance of the vehicles in
power train, energy efficiency gains can come the platoon (Alam et al., 2015)72. In addition, it
from the intensity of transport activities and is well known that improvements in traffic flow
vehicle operations. have a positive effect on fuel consumption. In
reality, this is true for the ICE. EVs have a totally
Reducing transport activities can be achieved different efficiency pattern, the effect of which
either by promoting life and work models which is clearly shown in Figure 34. The two curves for
are less dependent on physical displacement, ICE vehicles achieve a minimum fuel consumption
such as teleworking, video- or teleconferencing, of between 100 and 120km/h. However, the
etc., or by combining the transport and mobility minimum energy consumption for EVs is achieved
needs of goods and people to cut the number at a much lower speed (30-50km/h). Thus, any
of vehicles used. Public transport systems, ride- improvement in traffic flow will increase the
sharing and car-pooling are all initiatives moving electric energy consumption.
towards reducing the number of vehicles required
 93 11. Energy use and emissions

16 0.7 By combining the different factors contributing to

Electric energy consumption kWh/km

14 0.6
energy consumption, a recent study has found that
Fuel consumption l/100km

12
the reduction in energy consumption of vehicles
0.5
that are electric, connected and automated can
10
0.4 be lower than normally expected (in the order
8
0.3
of 9 % (Gawron et al., 2018)). This means that if
6 CAVs increase road capacity and more vehicles are
0.2
4 attracted to the road, CAVs’ overall impact on total
2 0.1 energy consumption is likely be negative. Along
0 0
these lines, a recent microeconomic study has shown
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 that the additional travel demand induced by CAVs
Average speed km/h can generate a rebound effect able to increase the
PC-ICE LCV-ICE PC-EV LCV-EV overall energy consumption in road transport by up
to 30 % (Taiebat et al., 2019). Similar dynamics may
arise from the introduction of new transport options
Figure 34: Relationship between speed-fuel consumption for last-mile freight delivery services (such as drones
(for internal combustion engine ICE vehicles) and speed-electric
energy consumption (for electric vehicles EVs) for two vehicle
and automated robots). In spite of their limited size
categories (passenger car, PC and light-commercial vehicles, LCV) and weight and their potential to take LCVs off the
Source: own elaborations based on Fiori et al. (2019) road, drones are forced to go back to their hive due
to limitations in weight and range (e.g. up to 2.3
kg and 16 km, according to Paddeu et al., 2019),
which can lead to higher energy consumption than

The additional
that of conventional diesel vehicles (Figliozzi, 2017).
Clearly, it is important to consider future transport

travel demand
governance where all the actors and solutions must
be coordinated to achieve a system as efficient

induced by
as possible for both its quality of service and its
environmental impacts.

connected and
automated vehicles
can generate
a rebound effect
able to increase
the overall energ y
consumption in road
transport by up
to 30 %.
 12. Sustainability of material supply 94

SUMMARY

Future road-based mobility trends will imply dramatic changes in the technologies used
both at the vehicle level (e.g. car, truck, bus, vans, two-wheelers or totally new equipment)
and at the infrastructure level (roads, communication infrastructure, charging stations,
specialised parking areas, etc.). While transport will become progressively free of its
dependency on fossil fuels, new technologies will rely intensively on a variety of raw
materials. Some of these have been flagged as critical for the EU economy, as well as
different speciality materials which are largely produced outside the EU. In many cases,
the availability of such materials is currently limited and controlled by a few countries.
After a long-lasting dependence on oil-producing countries, the EU risks becoming
subsidiary to new countries controlling the mining and refining of raw materials. The
real risk is that certain raw materials could become the ‘new oil’ (Simon, 2018). This
chapter discusses a shift in the environmental impacts from the use phase of vehicles
towards their manufacturing and end of life (EoL) stages, highlighting the importance
of implementing a life-cycle thinking approach. The efficient and clean recycling of
materials at the EoL will reduce the pressure of material supply risks and contribute
to the sustainability of future mobility.
 95 12. Sustainability of material supply

SUSTAINABILITY
OF MATERIAL
SUPPLY
In line with current EU raw materials policy73 and
SDG objectives, future mobility will have to rely
A challenge for future
on a sustainable, continuous and adequate
supply of raw materials. A sustainable supply
mobility is to ensure
means being able to meet the demands from the
economic sectors, without compromising natural
a sustainable and
and social systems. Supply can be assured by
materials extracted within the EU (e.g. opening
responsible supply
new mines or ramping up existing ones), by the
sustainable supply of materials from non-EU
of raw materials to
countries, and by the provision of secondary raw
materials from recycling waste and products in
meet the demands
stock (the so-called urban mining74).
of new technologies
Access to materials at reasonable prices will be
necessary to prevent them from becoming a
and services.
bottleneck in the development of new technologies
and ambitious future mobility scenarios in the TODAY FUTURE MOBILITY
EU (Blagoeva et al., 2016). Hence, a challenge DEPENDENCY
for future mobility is to ensure a stable supply OIL Li
Mg
MATERIALS

of materials to meet the demand arising from V Mn Co Ni Cu

Nb Pd Ag
new transport technologies and services. Special W Pt Au

materials are essential for several key functions ECONOMY

and components of future mobility technologies, in LINEAR CIRCULAR

particular: batteries (essential for electrification), production production

magnets (for high-efficiency engines), electronics use

non-recyclable use
(for connectivity and sharing), sensors (for waste
recycle

automation and connectivity), and lightweight

FOCUS
structural parts (for electrification and overall for USE PHASE LIFE CYCLE
robust and efficient vehicles and infrastructures). production production
Supply risks for mobility concern several materials use end of life

(e.g. Co, B, In, Mg, Pt, Pd, Ta, Sc, V, graphite and end of life use
rare-earth elements), which have already been
 12. Sustainability of material supply 96

identified as ‘critical’ for the EU75. Other materials cobalt was mined by the Democratic Republic of
could become critical in the near future (e.g. the Congo (DRC)77, including cobalt which was
Li, Mn, Ni, Zr) due to their increased use in new also mined illegally there. It is likely that the DRC
technologies. The supply risks associated with will remain the main cobalt supplier in the future
electrification are discussed in Box 11. (Alves Dias et al., 2018). Since cobalt mining in
the DRC has so often been linked to violence, the
There is also a high risk that materials strategic mineral has been dubbed the “blood diamonds of
for the transition to low-carbon mobility will fuel this decade” (Church et al., 2018). Despite the low
conflicts in the world. In 2016, 55 % of the world’s percentage (below 5 % of global supply), illegal

box 11. Material supply in electrified mobility

The electrification of mobility will redefine, (Lenson, 2016). Based on 2030 forecasts for the
in particular, the market in traction batteries. market penetration of EVs, it is estimated that
The demand for lithium, cobalt and graphite the demand for lithium, cobalt and graphite will
is expected to increase exponentially in the increase by about 25 times, and the demand
coming decades (especially if the current battery for rare-earth elements by 10 times (Figure 35).
technology is maintained). Future demand for These growth rates may be even higher if based
several rare-earth elements (e.g. neodymium, on latest and more ambitious scenarios describing
praseodymium and dysprosium) will also grow as the uptake of EVs in 2030 and beyond76. However,
a result of their use in permanent magnets for the estimated demand for raw materials needed
electric motors (assuming the adoption of current for developing electrification could be lower than
technologies). On the other hand, the demand for expected if, for example, greater vehicle sharing
some materials, such as platinum and palladium in future mobility scenarios leads to significantly
used in catalytic converters, is expected to decline fewer EVs being used.

Battery Electric traction motor

Lithium Cobalt Graphite Neodymium Praseodymium Dysprosium
EU material demand for hybrid and electric vehicles tonnes

EU material demand for hybrid and electric vehicles tonnes

22k 220k
800 Technology
20k 200k
BEV
18k 180k 700 PHEV
HEV
16k 160k 600
14k 140k
2 565 % 500
12k 120k 2 577 % 954 %
400
10k 100k

8k 2 382 % 80k 300

6k 60k
200
941 % 937 %
4k 40k
100
2k 20k

0k 0k 0
2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030

Figure 35: Demand forecast in the EU for selected critical raw materials for the BEV, PHEV and HEV sectors
Source: European Commission (2018e)
 97 12. Sustainability of material supply

cobalt in the supply chain has greatly concerned beginning to emerge in the EU. However, they
battery end-users, mainly due to the corporate still have huge potential, especially for future
social responsibility impact on their businesses big mobility companies managing large fleets of
(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2018). In vehicles.
future, sustainable manufacturing will avoid
producing efficient and comfortable vehicles at the Stocks of EV batteries in the EU (red arrows
cost of social impacts on other countries. On the in Figure 36) could increase dramatically by 2030
contrary, for future mobility to be environmentally as the result of higher sales, remanufacturing
and socially sustainable, the supply of critical and second uses. Although extending the lifetime
materials should represent an opportunity for of batteries (through remanufacturing and
growth in several developing countries. repurposing) could ensure more efficient use
of raw materials, it might significantly delay
The development of new shared mobility the availability of secondary raw materials
services could unlock new and more resource- such as cobalt and lithium (Bobba et al., 2019).
efficient solutions. For example, used traction Reuse and recycling practices will have to
batteries can be removed from EVs to be be synergistically optimised since reused
remanufactured and reused again in new vehicles. components will have to be recycled when their
Alternatively, used batteries can be repurposed performance becomes too low. In the coming
for stationary energy-storage applications (e.g. in decades, it is expected that recycling processes
residential or office buildings) to reduce the costs for batteries will rapidly develop in order to
of storing energy systems in buildings, especially optimise the recovery of raw materials (including
those equipped with renewable energy plants fractions currently being lost) and the production
(Podias et al., 2018). Used batteries can also be of high-quality secondary raw materials
extracted from vehicles for material recycling. (Mathieux et al., 2017).

Reused solutions (for batteries or other vehicle The demand for novel raw materials combined
parts) will ensure a more efficient use of raw with the progressive abandoning of fossil fuels for
materials overall. Remanufacturing, in particular, operating our future mobility will imply a shift in
already represents a resource-efficient practice for the environmental impact from direct emissions
reusing mechanic and mechatronic components. during the use phase of vehicles (as discussed
The 30 million spare parts remanufactured for in Chapter 11) towards their manufacturing and
cars and trucks each year represent more than EoL stages, as well as to indirect impacts (due
50 % of spare parts overall, and have a market to e.g. electricity production). As anticipated in
value of about EUR 12 billion (Weiland, 2012). In Chapter 11, the adoption of life-cycle thinking78
future, more remanufacturing processes are allows for consideration of all the environmental
expected for electronic components, batteries impacts arising along the entire supply chain
and permanent magnet motors. These parts – from the extraction of raw materials to their
can be directly reused provided that design-for- processing during manufacturing, to the use
disassembly strategies are adopted to facilitate phase up to vehicle disposal. This approach avoids
their extraction from EoL vehicles. future mobility shifting environmental impacts
from one life stage to another or from one type
Overall, if vehicles and systems are well designed, of impact (e.g. climate change) to another (e.g.
such resource-efficient solutions are likely to human toxicity). Life-cycle thinking implies taking
partially reduce pressure on the supply of raw into account all the different impacts that can
materials. Currently, this potential is only being arise from mobility, such as the potential effects
exploited in part as these strategies are only on, among others, climate change, air quality,
 12. Sustainability of material supply 98

batteries in EVs batteries from

car dealers (spent)
EV sales

EV stock

remanufacturing
to production

second-use
recycling

batteries stock
SRMs

Figure 36: Modelling of traction battery stocks and flows in the EU in 2030 taking into account a high development scenario
for repurposing; the arrows’ thickness is proportional to battery flows
Note: the arrows’ thickness is proportional to battery flows
Source: own elaborations based on Bobba et al. (2019)

human toxicity, eutrophication, resource and land than 30 % of the life-cycle impact on mineral and
use. Life-cycle thinking is also closely connected metal resource consumption79 and freshwater
to the closing-the-loop target to achieve a eutrophication. However, considering that future
circular economy (European Commission, 2015b). mobility may entail more efficient and circular
Synergistically applied, these concepts enable use of materials in the vehicles’ life cycle, there
the identification and optimisation of the above- may be potential benefits. Indeed, the improved
mentioned resource-efficient solutions to reduce efficiency of future mobility could reduce the
the overall impacts of future mobility. overall impact of transport. For example, a
recent study (Gawron et al., 2018) estimated that
Following a life-cycle approach, research was CAV subsystems could increase vehicle primary
done into the environmental impacts of current energy use and GHG emissions by 3–20 % (due to
EU mobility and future scenarios up to 2030 (Sala increases in power consumption, weight, drag, and
et al., 2019). This analysis assumed an increase data transmission). However, when the potential
in the future transport demand with constant operational effects of CAV systems are included,
material efficiency within the mobility system. the net result is a reduction of up to 9 % in energy
The study concluded that the share of the impacts, and GHG emissions in the baseline case.
for life-cycle stages other than the use stage (i.e.
vehicle production, EoL, infrastructure production), Another study (Soo et al., 2015) investigated how
could increase up to 220 %, depending on the measures to reduce vehicle emissions in the use
type of impact considered. Among the emerging phase (as lightweight materials and multi-material
concerns, the growing use of critical and precious components) have consequently created long-
raw materials (such as gold used in sophisticated term problems in terms of difficult recycling of the
electronics for control, power conversion and waste using current technologies. To improve the
battery management systems) was identified. resource efficiency of future vehicles, additional
If these additional material consumptions are efforts should be focused on better designs
achieved, they would provoke an increase of more for disassembly and recycling solutions, such
 99 12. Sustainability of material supply

as reducing the use of metal accessories and production and vehicle EoL more efficient and
fasteners, and facilitating the dismantling and reducing the related environmental impacts.
recycling of interior and exterior trims (Tian Secondly, these benefits should not be nullified
and Chen, 2014). by more demand for mobility services. Greater
impacts resulting from the manufacturing of new
The production of traction batteries will also be and more technologically advanced vehicles can
key for the sustainability of future mobility. For be offset by improving the resource efficiency
example, Li-ion battery manufacturing (using of the transport sector by means of more reuse
composite cathode material for PHEVs) was and recycling. To benefit all those concerned,
relevant for all the impact categories assessed future automated, connected, decarbonised
(Cusenza et al., 2019), while recovery of valuable and shared mobility will need to address the
materials (e.g. cobalt and nickel sulphates) and social and environmental impacts due to the
other metal fractions (e.g. aluminium and steel) sourcing of raw materials for the vehicles. It will
are particularly relevant for several impact also have to be circular and optimised from the
categories. life-cycle perspective for the vehicles. It is only
under these conditions that future automated,
To summarise, the transition towards sustainable connected, low-carbon and shared mobility will
mobility in EU should be based on two pillars. be able to contribute positively to achieving the
First, greater attention should be paid to making SDGs’ high targets.

The adoption
of life-cycle
thinking
allows for
consideration
of all the
environmental
impacts arising
along the entire
supply chain.
 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness 100

SUMMARY

Research into the wider impacts of CAVs is still at an early stage, especially as regards
their implications for society and its values. CAVs are expected to reduce travel costs,
increase accessibility, change land-use patterns and location choices as well as induce
sustainability-oriented modal shifts in mobility (Milakis, 2019). CAVs may be beneficial in
terms of social equity, providing access to private mobility for user groups currently not
able to access it, such as the elderly or disabled. At the same time, CAVs and other new
mobility solutions raise issues in terms of privacy, democracy and equity. As CAVs utilise
multiple sources and sets of digitally stored personal data, keeping both personal and
proprietary information safe is a key issue. CAVs will impact social hierarchies as they will
change the use of public space, land-use patterns, living and working location choices,
etc. They can either offer or limit physical mobility to specific social or identity groups.
Their behaviour will not be fully predictable, thereby raising concerns of accountability
and transparency, to mention but a few. Responsible innovation and good governance
of CAVs must address the complexity of the issues at stake and try to create versatile
mobility ecosystems that disrupt the monoculture of ‘automobility’ and respond to the
potential benefits of other forms of sustainable and quality-of-life-focused mechanised
and non-mechanised personal mobility. A network of European living labs can enable
the introduction of new transport opportunities with the direct engagement of citizens
to verify their usefulness in achieving the transport improvements they promise. This
chapter sheds some light on the social dimension of the transition to CAM.
 101 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness

PRIVACY, DEMOCRACY
AND SOCIAL
FAIRNESS
Technologies, including self-driving ones, are not
autonomous – they (are made to) shape the worlds
Responsible
they are embedded in. CAVs are permeated with
visions of the world in which they are deployed.
innovation and good
As previous research has shown (Urry, 2004),
automobility is a self-organising, non-linear
governance of the
‘technosocial system’ that spreads the world over
and includes cars, drivers, non-drivers, roads and
future road transport
roadside infrastructure, petroleum and electric
supplies, multifold artefacts, technologies, signs
system must address
as well as regulatory apparatus. It also has
profound impacts on the social aspects of work,
the multiple complex
entertainment and family. Suburbanisation,
for instance, has been one impact of the car
societal issues
culture: the automobility culture has had wider
social effects beyond providing seamless and
at stake.
effective mobility. It has created the automobile
city, transforming the time-space ‘scapes’ of the CAVs must address these challenges while trying to
modern urban/suburban dweller (Sheller and Urry, create versatile mobility ecosystems that disrupt
2000) as well as the automobile ‘subject’, together the monoculture of automobility and address the
with his desires and performance of status, man/ potential benefits of other forms of sustainable
womanhood and power (Böhm et al., 2006). and quality-of-life-focused mechanised and
non-mechanised personal mobility. Beyond the
Therefore, transition to CAVs, as well as any arguable benefits that CAVs will bring, reflecting
transformation in the transport sector, should take on the transition must address questions about
into consideration social science findings about how CAVs will be embedded in society, as well as
the challenges and impacts of an automobility- anticipating the social impacts beyond transport
dominated urban environment. CAVs may make issues. Innovation and policy dealing with future
demands on building new infrastructures, transport challenges should create a responsive
improvements and redesign of roads, regulation and ecosystem involving and engaging different
human behaviour. They will also demand new skills stakeholders who will be impacted by unforeseen
and responsibilities from both users and non-users. changes in the social constellations created by new
Responsible innovation and good governance of transport arrangements.
 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness 102

This chapter considers the possible implications destinations, travel time, etc.), LBS derivatives
of future mobility solutions on privacy, democracy (habits or characteristics based on LBS data),
and equity. As will be discussed, when considering video and audio surveillance and derivatives,
the potential issues at stake, the creation of pass-through (e.g. emails, photos, passwords,
regulatory sandboxes and living labs is advised websites, music, videos, etc.), to name but a few.
where new technologies and mobility solutions The principles of privacy must apply to a broad
can be tested with the engagement of citizens and number of stakeholders who provide, use and
other stakeholders, allowing them to observe and store such data, including users, manufacturers,
influence any possible implications. operating systems/control and application systems
developers, mobility-as-a-service providers,
13.1 Privacy maintenance and repair companies, insurance
companies, enforcement agencies and regulatory
CAVs and other connected mobility options bodies, once again to name but a few.
collect, store and use data in multiple ways. The
principles of ‘privacy-by-design’80, and ‘privacy- To keep up with innovation in CAVs, traditional
by-default’81 should apply without any manual automotive manufacturers are transforming their
input from the end-user. The application of such business models. Besides hardware, they are also
principles must be reassessed time and again to producing innovative software that leverages
fit both the societal expectations of privacy and the immense amount of data CAVs will generate
developments in data applications in technology. to continuously improve CAV services for users.
Privacy-by-design should apply to broad sets of Under the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation
data, including personal identification, location- (GDPR), any entity processing personal data on
based service (LBS) data (location and time, behalf of data controllers will also have direct
obligations to safeguard privacy and data use.
Stakeholders across the CAV value chain will need
to enter into carefully structured agreements
which identify each party’s obligations regarding
the use and protection of personal data and the

Any entity apportionment of risk where data breach may

occur. This is particularly important as authorities

processing can impose fines of up to 4 % of annual global

turnover for breaches of principles governing data

personal data processing and data subjects’ rights under the

GDPR.

on behalf of Gaining the trust of stakeholders is key to

data controllers the successful transition to CAVs. If users do

not trust the fact that their personal data is

will also have direct protected and adequate safeguards have been
put in place to ensure security and privacy, they

obligations to will opt out of data use and sharing. This would
significantly restrict the improvement of CAVs and

safeguard privacy the usability of their services. Stakeholders will

conduct comprehensive data-protection impact

and data use. assessments, analyse any potential exposure

under the applicable data-protection legislation
 103 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness

and implement appropriate measures to ensure

ongoing compliance. Such measures are to be
applied as early as possible in the development of

Efficient
new CAV technologies, as privacy-by-design is an
essential part of the GDPR.

As CAVs are fully connected to the world around and seamless

transport systems
them, the risk of hacking and security breaches
is growing. This is important as it is not only

may limit
personal data that may be compromised but lives
may also be put at risk. During the process of CAV

participation in
transition, manufacturers and other players across
the CAV value chain must work closely together
with regulators, certification entities, other key
stakeholders and user organisations to establish the political process
a clear set of guidelines over the short to medium
term and a formal set of regulations over the by hindering the access
long term. Regulatory sandboxes may be applied
to experiment with more flexible regulatory of specific cultural
arrangements.
or social groups.
13.2 Democracy
Democracy is usually defined as a political
system that provides the opportunity to choose
and replace a government through free and fair
elections; the active participation of the people, mobility ecosystem may impact citizens in multiple
as citizens in political and civil life; protection of ways. Point-to-point CAM will limit situations of
the human rights of all citizens; and a rule of law social inclusion by using ever-more public space
in which the law and procedures apply equally for mobility infrastructure. Efficient and seamless
to all citizens (Diamond, 1999; Diamond, 2004). transport systems may limit participation in the
This may be translated into technology and political process by hindering the access of specific
mobility transitions as special attention to political cultural or social groups (either by pricing them out
and social fairness, social inclusion, privacy of using such systems or because they lack the
and human rights, as well as the transparency skills to use them), as well as severely restricting
and accountability of all processes related to the availability and use of public spaces for
innovation and mobility. social and political interaction.

Automobility has been dominated by economic As vehicles will be fully connected and users will
visions of competitiveness and efficiency as well not be driving, CAVs may also increase access
as social imaginaries of status, independence to politically and socially relevant information
and comfort. It has arguably added social through social media and other social platforms
benefits while, at the same time, creating serious increasing the challenges posed by ‘filter bubbles’
inequalities, social uncertainties and negative (the intellectual isolation that can occur when
environmental impacts. (Re)creating a connected, platforms use algorithms to select information
automated and omnipresent car-dominated it is assumed a user wants to see), further
 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness 104

assisting the spread of a post-truth and post-

trust political culture (Bozdag and van den Hoven,
2015). Therefore, innovation, development
and the deployment of CAVs must anticipate
and respond to potential social impacts on
democratic principles such as accountability,
Involving and
transparency, trust and social inclusion. engaging know-
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the
benefits of future mobility, enhanced access, the
ledge of diverse
declining social exclusion of vulnerable groups,
connectedness, and sharing, may enhance political
stakeholders
participation, engagement, and political inclusion,
thereby widening the democratic process (Vecchio,
will ensure that
2017). innovation in
To avoid the traps of policy push and regulatory connected and
blockage, regulatory sandboxes and living labs
should be created in which innovators, citizens automated vehicles
includes complex
and other stakeholders may experiment together
with new technologies. Involving and engaging

social impacts
knowledge of diverse stakeholders will ensure that
innovation in CAVs includes complex social impacts

and uncertainties.
and uncertainties. Regulators will learn and adjust
regulatory regimes since CAV deployment requires
constant regulatory adaptation.

Beyond ethical considerations, societies have

not yet found ways to meet societal concerns
and expectations when developing new
technologies that include machine learning, AI and both public trust and the potential long-term
multidimensional connectivity. For example, CAVs benefits of CAVs discussed in previous chapters.
use machine learning to address the complexities
of driving in different environments, terrains and The politics of algorithms, also in transport
social settings. In this sense, CAVs are not finalised technologies, is key for the future of democracy.
products or fully formed technologies, nor will In many ways, algorithms tend to be ‘black boxes’:
they ever be. The algorithms that drive CAVs are devices which can be viewed in terms of inputs
continuously updated with new data to handle any and outputs but without any knowledge of their
eventuality that may arise on the move. Machine internal workings. In addition, as algorithms that
learning in specific CAVs may be a fleet learning enable CAVs to navigate the complexities of
– any information that helps the system to better their environments become more specialised and
understand eventualities will be shared with all complex, even their creators may no longer be able
other CAVs within a specific, privately owned fleet to understand them. Algorithmic accountability
rather than across the entire mobility system. One in terms of the legibility of algorithms is a major
of the challenges to the democratic process lies in challenge. Algorithms in CAVs are tasked with
this ‘privatisation of learning’, which jeopardises engaging with uncertain and complicated
 105 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness

environments, the complexities of which cannot social exclusion or ethical dilemmas. Innovation
be captured by a set of simple and formal rules. in CAVs suggests a special form of ‘solutionism’
Therefore, a ‘right to explanation’ (Goodman that frames the present as deficient as regards
and Flaxman, 2016) is required as algorithmic a specific mobility technology fix that will provide
decisions may have a profound impact on an appropriate, technologically and socially
people’s lives. beneficial solution – a situation referred to as
‘technopoly’ by Postman (Postman, 1992). This
In addition, incorporating social and ethical is exemplified by claims that CAVs can provide
values, as well as other societal concerns must be a solution to human driving mistakes. While the
reflected in the design of CAVs as AI systems. For number and gravity of accidents will probably
CAVs to be safe, trusted and accepted, AI should be reduced, other problems, ethical challenges
be designed to take up ethical considerations and social contingencies will emerge. Institutions
and moral consequences in an accountable, and individuals need to build and develop an
responsible and transparent way82. This may appropriate reflexive capacity to diverge from
include ethical considerations beyond privacy a technology-fix approach and focus on social
and data security, including ethical dilemmas in learning, complex assessments of impacts and
different road-use situations impacting different responsiveness to challenges thereof, both in
stakeholders. Similar to privacy-by-design, ‘values- the sense that people learn and assess impacts
in-design’ (Friedman et al., 2006 in Zhang and socially and that societies learn, reflect and
Galletta, 2006) methodologies are to be applied respond constantly.
that have human values as their main focus. This
process is a theoretically grounded approach to 13.3 Social fairness
technology design that accounts for human values
in a principled, systematic and comprehensive CAVs are also discussed as vehicles for social
manner. improvement (Bilger, 2013). They are promoted
as offering social benefits beyond efficiency,
Following the principles of accountability, sustainability and connectivity. It is suggested
responsibility and transparency (ART) in that automation technologies practically remove
algorithmic decision-making that enable CAVs the barriers to driving. They may enhance the
to operate, special attention must be paid to potential mobility of those who are prevented
democratising the process of (social) learning. from driving, such as the elderly or underaged
Advances in machine learning should be made population, people with medical conditions or
public and shared across the whole system and those without a driving licence. Existing in-vehicle
must not remain proprietary to just one company autonomous technologies, such as collision
or technology provider. Frameworks and processes warning, lane-departure warning, parking assist,
of responsible research and innovation (RRI) (Von navigation assist, etc., are beneficial to older and
Schomberg, 2013 in Owen et al., 2013) should be less-experienced drivers, helping them to avoid
applied, paying attention not only to the risks and accidents and improving their comfort. Such
challenges of new technologies but also to public technologies can enable the elderly to use cars
concern as to how and why specific innovations safely by compensating for the decline or loss of
happen in autonomous mobility systems. functional abilities (Eby et al., 2016). However,
these user groups also have special needs when
It is also interesting to note that disruptive it comes to interacting with new technologies and
technologies, CAVs included, claim to offer tend to avoid or even reject them due to a lack of
solutions to past social pathologies of skills, ability or desire (digital divide) (Simões and
technological development, such as inequality, Pereira, 2009). In addition, new pricing models
 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness 106

which attempt to address greater demand (both in In addition to CAVs, future transport will see
terms of general road use and peak-hour use) may the emergence of new mobility opportunities
also adversely impact poorer user groups who increasing the access of specific social groups to
may be priced out of accessing these new modes efficient and affordable public transport options.
of mobility. The wide availability of last-mile options, however,
may hinder the choice of more active transport
A transport system is fair if, and only if, it modes, such as walking or cycling, with negative
provides a sufficient level of accessibility to all impacts on public health. In addition, if new
under most circumstances (Martens, 2017). In transport opportunities enter into competition
this respect, during the transition to CAVs, special with public transport and eventually contribute
care and attention should be given to vulnerable to reducing its efficiency, they can further limit
groups in accordance to the principles of justice accessibility for poorer social groups and thereby
which argue that social and economic inequalities reduce transport equity. Interventions in the
must be arranged to the greatest benefit of the transport system are only socially legitimate
least advantaged. Insufficient or a lack of transport, as long as they have no detrimental impact on
as well as the lack of skills to use versatile and the accessibility levels experienced by those
affordable means of transport, are the primary who already experience poor accessibility
cause of people’s inability to escape poverty, find levels. One problem is that transition to CAVs
jobs, meet daily subsistence needs, including the requires major investments in roadside and other
social needs of spending time with family and transport infrastructure. The high costs of new
friends. This is especially relevant in gendered infrastructure may adversely impact vulnerable
contexts causing specific harm to women in need. groups. Limited resources will cause the diversion
of funds from enhancing traditional, public modes
of transport, will reduce investment in new
forms of public transport and infrastructure for
traditional modes of transport, like cycling, and
will obstruct the creation of urban environments
Future that help reduce mechanised mobility and invest in
non-mechanised mobility, such as improving the
transport will see pedestrian infrastructure.

the emergence An additional risk in terms of equity lies in the

optimisation of the system. Research results
of new mobility suggest that the traffic management systems
that utilise data from CAVs can maximise the
opportunities capacity of the transport system through dynamic
congestion pricing, capping the number of vehicles
increasing the access using the system at any given moment, or even

of specific social groups

limiting vehicle ownership (Belov, 2017). This may
also adversely impact poorer user groups who may

to efficient and
be priced out of high-demand travel time slots.
The traffic management system would be able to

affordable public
know the identity, position and transport activity
of every vehicle user, at any given moment,

transport options.
including their history and their expected future
behaviour. While technical solutions based on
 107 13. Privacy, democracy and social fairness

CAVs may maximise the total benefit for society, As for privacy and democracy, and for equity
the risk is that the cost of accessing the system and fairness, too, the complexity of the issues
would be regressive, becoming proportionally too at stake makes it very difficult to anticipate all
high for the lower-income population and thus the possible implications of new mobility options.
actually hurting vulnerable social groups. The Setting up a network of European living labs
combination of equity and privacy issues with the where new mobility solutions can be tested with
potentially higher degrees of automation in traffic the direct engagement of citizens can help both
management raises the question of democracy in public and private entities to ensure that the
transport activity. While the current conventional new options will be financially sustainable while
transport system allows for anonymous access to simultaneously contributing to improving the
all, new solutions based on CAVs will highlight transport system.
the trade-offs between individual freedom and
system efficiency. Some ethical considerations are discussed in Box 12.

box 12. New ethical issues in transport

A recent article published in Nature (Awad et al., safety, human dignity, personal freedom of choice
2018) explored moral decision-making as regards and data autonomy (German Federal Ministry
AVs. The investigation presented volunteers of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, 2017).
worldwide with scenarios involving AVs and
unavoidable accidents with pedestrians and In the US, Google’s algorithms misidentified
passengers. Participants had to decide which images of people with dogs and black people as
lives the vehicle would either spare or take based gorillas. As AI expert Vivienne Ming explained,
on factors such as gender, age, fitness and even machine-learning systems often reflect biases
species of the potential victims. The results in the real world. Some systems struggle to
suggest that while there are some universal moral recognise non-white people because they
preferences across the globe (saving the largest were trained on internet images which are
number of lives, prioritising the young, and valuing overwhelmingly white (Barr, 2015).
humans over animals), ethics varied significantly
between different cultures, sometimes leading CAVs are made possible by major advances
to controversial moral preferences (e.g. in AI and machine learning. However, in CAV
discriminating against overweight or homeless advancement, the so-called Moravec’s paradox
people). The answer to the question whether the (named after Hans Moravec, an early robotics
behaviour of AVs conflicts with the moral values of expert), seems particularly important. According to
society can be a decisive factor for user acceptance. him “[T]he hard problems are easy and the easy
problems are hard” (Pinker, 1995). The challenge
In Germany, an Ethics Commission on CAVs was that is particularly hard is that while driving is a
established in September 2016, with experts relatively simple task, it is easy to create a set
from academia, society, the automotive industry of rules that see driving as an engineering task
and the digital technology sector. In June 2017, so CAVs are then optimised to solve these tasks.
they delivered a report with 20 ethical rules as However, the world of mechanised mobility is also
initial guidelines for policymakers and lawmakers, a social world with many social and behavioural
setting out special requirements in terms of uncertainties.
 14. The urban road context 108

SUMMARY

Transport and land use have a strong historical relationship. A disruption in the transport
sector will have strong impacts on urban and land-use development. Without an active
policy by local authorities, the reduced costs of travelling enabled by the new trends
and technology options may put the vehicle back at the centre of urban mobility and
intensify the problems that have affected urban living over the last century. At the same
time, new technologies provide the tools to achieve a new comprehensive governance
of the mobility options available in the city. Shared and individual transport, public
transport and soft transport options should all help to satisfy peoples’ mobility needs
in a sustainable and equitable way. City administrations must ensure that instead of
competing for profit, all actors in the mobility landscape will cooperate in achieving
this overarching goal. In addition to transport governance, cities have the option to
rethink the urban fabric in order to reduce the need for mobility. In Europe, there
are important initiatives and platforms to support the work of urban planners and
promote the exchange of information and best practices. This chapter addresses ways
in which cities can support the transition towards sustainable urban mobility.
 109 14. The urban road context

THE URBAN
ROAD CONTEXT
Mobility and urban development have always
been strongly linked. Medieval cities were limited
Cities must play
in size by the distance one could travel on foot.
In the 18th and 19 th centuries, urban expansion
an active role in
typically followed the paths of tram links (Xie
and Levinson, 2010). The last major revolution in
shaping a sustainable
urban mobility began in 1885 when Karl Friedrich
Benz received the first patent for an automobile
urban transport
powered by an ICE83. Some years later (1908),
the Long Island Motor Parkway opened “the
system, promoting
world’s first road designed and built for daily use
of the automobile” (Patton, 2008). Since then, the
public transport and
private automobile has become an omnipresent
component of the urban fabric and arguably has
reducing overall
influenced the development of the modern city in
ways far beyond any other single technology.
travel demand.
In light of this, any revolution in both the mobility More urban challenges are addressed in
paradigm and transport system may generate the JRC report entitled ‘The Future of Cities’
a deep transformation of urban and land-use (Vandecasteele et al., 2019).
development. One of the main arguments is that
the new technologies help to reduce generalised The need for more sustainable and integrative
transport costs, and congestion in particular. planning processes to deal with the complexity of
This would cause a significant increase in the urban mobility has been widely recognised. New
accessibility of many areas, favouring expansion, approaches to urban mobility planning emerge as
and would “render public transport superfluous local authorities seek to develop strategies that
except for dense urban areas” (Meyer et al., can stimulate a shift towards cleaner and more
2017). To avoid this problem, it is very important sustainable modes of transport.
that cities shape their needs in order to integrate
new technologies in their overall transport Policies at the city level which favour the use
system (Legacy et al., 2019). If they fail to meet of multimodal transport, increasing the density
that challenge, the risk is that vehicles rather of services and promoting relocation close to
than people will once again be at the centre of working places, while limiting car access, will
the mobility revolution, and any positive impacts reduce the need for car-based transport in cities
potentially coming from the new technologies and hence transport-related negative impacts.
could be completely lost (Freudendal-Pedersen Regulating access to parts of the city (through
and Kesselring, 2016; Fraedrich et al., 2018). pricing or advanced traffic management systems)
 14. The urban road context 110

is crucial in a traveller’s decision whether to drive,

take public transport, cycle or walk.

There are several measures in which cities can

invest to help the transition to sustainable urban
mobility.
Any revolution
Optimising public transport in both
The first and most important measure towards
sustainable urban mobility is the correct
the mobility
optimisation of public transport.
paradigm and
To compete with the car, public transport must
be fast, frequent and easily accessible. This may
transport system
require action to ensure that buses and trams are
not hindered by congestion.
may generate a deep
Cities can also promote denser (re)development
transformation of
close to high-frequency public transport stops.
The network length (in road, as regards bus travel)
urban and land-use
required per person declines with population
density (Figure 37). This means that the denser development.
a city, the more cost-effective and efficient the
public transport can be (i.e. fewer stops). Figure 37
also shows that there is an optimal density, in the
order of 1 000 people/km2, above which there is
no significant further reduction in network length.

Optimising public transport also implies efficient systems have always represented a significant
integration between the different available cost for urban administrations. Security, safety,
modes, so that they can be accessed and priced in a tidiness and comfort are other elements that
seamless and coordinated way. Online platforms can discourage the use of public transport in favour
help a lot as a means of integrating the different of individual mobility options. Without integration
transport options. Ride-sharing and ride-hailing into the urban mobility plan, new mobility services,
services can both help to better connect the existing such as car sharing, ride sharing and ride-hailing,
modes and solve the last-mile connection, which can attract users from public transport thereby
is usually the most important factor preventing threatening its financial sustainability. The
the use of public transport. Online platforms can MaaS concept originates from the importance
also offer their users other important incentives as of avoiding such competition and integrating
they increase the perceived reliability of the service all the available options to make car ownership
by providing real-time information on congestion, unnecessary. Governance of the system also plays
vehicle arrival times and occupancy rates. a crucial role here. If MaaS means that users can
always take a taxi, then the negative impact of
The optimisation of public transport faces many traffic will not be reduced. The case of Helsinki in
challenges. Highly subsidised public transport Finland is presented in Box 13.
 111 14. The urban road context

13

12 Umeå, SE

11

10
Network length per person metres

9
Kuopio, FI
based on observed PT stops

7 Tartu, EE

6
Y = 30.04x-0.505
5 R² = 0.83

2
Donostia-San Sebastián, ES
Riga LV
1
Oxford, UK Luton, UK
London, UK Delft, NL Leiden, NL
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
Population density by functional urban areas person/km2

Figure 37: Population density and observed network length per person in European cities
Note: PT = public transport
Source: own elaborations based on Kompil et al. (2018)

box 13. Case study: Helsinki (Finland) plans to make car ownership a thing of the past84

In the Finnish capital (and in a few other cities), The system’s main success is in the coordination
companies offer the option to take out a monthly of the different operators working in Helsinki. The
subscription to local transport, car sharing, bike process is not simple which is why it is still ongoing.
sharing, car rental and taxi in order to make car In addition, from a public governance perspective,
ownership unnecessary in the city. The system a few issues still need to be addressed. Without
provides city dwellers with different mobility proper governance, such a system, which is
alternatives that are easy to use, cheap, based on a monthly subscription, may encourage
flexible and well-coordinated, competing with the shift to individual mobility options (such as
owning a private car. Users interact through car sharing/rental or taxi), increasing the number
a smartphone app that acts as both a journey of kilometres travelled and urban congestion. In
planner and payment transaction platform. It is addition, accessing the transport system requires
planned to expand the system to even further a mobile phone and a credit card, which may
modes of transport such as ferries and other represent a major barrier for some segments of
mobility solutions. the urban population.
 14. The urban road context 112

Incentivising alternative modes of transport the use of multimodal transport and new
In Europe, while car use has grown on average, in alternative modes of transport (shared e-bikes,
cities people have been making more use of other scooters, walking) by making them easier to use.
modes of transport. Capital cities have the lowest Apps help to find the best way of getting from place
rates of residents using cars, with large variations to place, and bicycle-sharing points are already
between countries, ranging from more than 70 % increasingly popular in cities of all sizes. In future,
in Nicosia to less than 10 % in Paris. Walking and new transport governance enabled by CAVs could
cycling, for example, are important alternative increase the number of options available to urban
transport modes in European cities. Some cities mobility planners. The infrastructure may be made
have been extremely successful in promoting available dynamically depending on the time of
these, with more than half the trips made on foot day and/or specific conditions. Vehicle access can
or by bike. Many other cities could boost walking be granted until an acceptable traffic density is
and cycling by making such trips more attractive reached. The key challenge for urban authorities is
and convenient. An increasing number of cities are to acquire the necessary competences and tools to
banning cars from certain areas of, or the whole properly manage multimodal traffic.
city centre, freeing up the space taken by the
road network and parking for alternative modes Reducing overall travel demand
of personal travel (cycling, walking, personal While new transport technologies have the potential
light EVs), and additional public space for more to cut travel time and increase the convenience of
creative uses (see the case of Pontevedra in Spain travel, some alternatives applied at the city level
presented in Box 14). Cities are incentivising may reduce the overall need for personal travel.

box 14. Case study: Pontevedra (Spain), ‘A Humanized City’ (Global Site Plans - The Grid, 2014)

According to the philosophy of the mayor of this in traffic accidents in the period 1996-2006, to 3
small city (80 000 inhabitants) in north-western in the subsequent 10 years, and zero since 2009.
Spain, “owning a car doesn’t give you the right CO2 emissions are 70 % lower. Almost three-
to occupy the public space... People don’t like quarters of the former car journeys are now made
being told they can’t drive wherever they want, by walking or cycling. The city has gained
but while people claim it as a right, in fact what 12 000 new inhabitants. Small businesses in
they want are privileges.” Cars were banned from the city have benefited over large commercial
the city, street parking was removed in favour of centres85. Among the negative impacts, citizens
underground parking lots, surface parking lots complain about congestion on the periphery and
were closed in the city centre and moved to the a lack of parking spaces and public transport
periphery, and roundabouts replaced traffic lights. services from the periphery to the centre. Five-
Public spaces were redesigned, adding more minute parking areas to drop off children at school
green spaces, benches, playgrounds and enlarging also appear to be missing.
pavements. And a metro-style pedestrian map
was published to encourage walking in the city. This is an example of a policy that puts users
at the heart of the city, as opposed to the
Since these measures were implemented, benefits conventional city model that focuses on private
on safety, emissions, health, urban growth and motorised vehicles. Other cities are now joining
the economy have been accrued: from 30 deaths the car-free movement (Garfield, 2018).
 113 14. The urban road context

In particular, the future trend is going towards powered LCVs). Recent research has identified
redesigning cities to decrease the need for travel. that up to 7.5 % of the EU-28 population
New urban developments are promoting higher- could have access to home-delivery services
density housing, thereby making public transport (dispatched from drone beehives) if such services
more efficient whilst also promoting a new ‘work, were legally authorised (Figure 38).
live, play’ urban model where all the necessary
services/housing/entertainment are within walking The EC promotes sustainable urban mobility and
distance. greater use of clean and energy-efficient vehicles
through a number of initiatives. The 2013
Bringing services to the people Urban Mobility Package sets out a concept for
An increasing number of workers can now sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs) that
work away from the office. In 2017, in urban has emerged from a broad exchange between
Europe, 14 % of the population teleworked stakeholders and planning experts across the
at least once a week, reducing the need to EU. The concept describes the main features of
commute. Online shopping has also increased a modern and sustainable urban mobility and
dramatically recently, leading to fewer ‘shopping transport plan. The European Platform on SUMPs
trips’. However, fewer requirements for supports the transition towards competitive and
personal transport were offset by more trips resource-efficient mobility systems in European
performed by last-mile delivery vehicles. The cities by:
use of electric drones for last-mile delivery could
replace traditional delivery trucks and reduce •  upporting the further development
S
congestion and emissions (although in terms of of the SUMP concept and the tools required
energy consumption they will probably lead to for its successful application by local planning
an increase when compared to traditional diesel- authorities;

25 % 50

45

20 % 40
percentage of population covered

35
million euro

15 % 30

25

10 % 20

15

5% 10

0% 0
FI SE DK PL GR HU IE PT NL IT FR DE UK EU-28
EU Countries where drone delivery would have a positive economic return
percentage of population covered estimated return

Figure 38: Percentage of population potentially covered by drone services and estimated return of drone delivery hives per country
Source: own elaborations based on Aurambout et al. (2019)
 14. The urban road context 114

•  roviding the Mobility Plans portal86

P • Improving the quality and availability
to disseminate relevant information, of data and statistics for urban transport
publications and tools; and systems, operations and decision-making at
local, regional, national and EU level; and
• F acilitating coordination and cooperation
across the different EU-supported actions •  roviding financial support for urban
P
through a coordinating group. mobility projects through EU Cohesion Policy,
H2020, the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF),
SUMP 2.0 has been driving the creation of new as well as other financial instruments.
EU SUMP guidelines with respect to societal and
technological developments and insights gained The CIVITAS Initiative also helps cities across
since 2013 in the implementation of SUMPs. Europe implement and test innovative and
Ultimately, SUMP 2.0 is helping to close the gap integrated strategies that address energy,
between urban planning and urban mobility. transport and environmental objectives. Almost
60 European cities have been co-funded by the
In addition to the European Platform on SUMPs, EC to implement innovative measures in clean
the EC helps European cities to tackle urban urban transport – an investment amounting
mobility challenges by: to well over EUR 300 million. The larger
CIVITAS Forum Network comprises almost 200
•  upporting exchange and capacity building on
S cities that are committed to implementing
sustainable urban development through, among and integrating sustainable urban mobility
others, the European URBACT programme; measures.
 15. The way forward 116

THE WAY
FORWARD
Technological drivers and new sharing trends Thus, reducing the role of private cars has the
are revolutionising transport. Policymakers must potential to significantly reduce the impact of
use this opportunity to ensure that the future the transport sector without relinquishing our
of transport is cleaner and more equitable than transport needs.
today’s car-centred approach.
To ensure that the future of transport is
New technologies and new business models cleaner and more equitable than today’s car-
are transforming not only our vehicles but centred approach, policymakers must improve
everything about how we get around and how governance systems and involve citizens in the
we live our lives. roll-out of innovative mobility solutions.

However, on their own, new transport Public authorities must define and coordinate
technologies will not spontaneously make our all actors in the public interest to establish
lives better without upgrading our transport efficient and equitable governance for complex,
systems and policies to the 21st century. multimodal transport systems.

Transport systems are extremely complex and EU policymakers should establish a network of
their elements often influence each other in European living labs where innovative mobility
unexpected ways. New technologies alone may solutions are tested and rolled out with the direct
make traffic worse by reducing costs and raising involvement of citizens.
demand, while also increasing overall energy use.
The massive changes on the horizon represent
Uncoordinated competition among service an opportunity to move towards a transport
providers and a lack of leadership by transport system that is more efficient, safer, less
authorities could lead to more traffic problems polluting and more accessible to larger parts
and an unbalanced provision of capacity. of society than the current car-centred one.

Under current trends, road transport will continue

to be the main mode of transport in the future,
with private cars having a dominant role and
generating unacceptable costs for society.
 Endnotes 118

ENDNOTES
1 The term externalities refers to negative road transport side effects such as accidents, emissions, congestion, noise, etc.
2 The development of a mass production and consumption economic model was initiated by the revolution in vehicle
production processes. This economic model is also referred to as Fordism: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fordism
3 Thus, this contributes to achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (European Economic and
Social Committee, 2018). In particular, Goal 11 (Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and
sustainable), Target 11.2 says “by 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport
systems for all, improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs
of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons”. (Indicators and a
Monitoring Framework, Launching a data revolution for the Sustainable Development Goals site, available at:
http://indicators.report/goals/goal-11/ (last accessed 7 March 2019)).
4 European Commission’s site on biofuels: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/renewable-energy/biofuels
5 MaaS alliance: https://maas-alliance.eu/
6 In 2021, 4-10 times cheaper per mile when considering investment and operation and 2-4 times cheaper when only
considering vehicle operation with regard to individually owned vehicles today (Arbib and Seba, 2017).
7 Baseline data used by the European Commission (2018a).
8 The total cost of road congestion for the EU is estimated at 1 % of GDP but can exceed 2 % of GDP for some highly
urbanised regions (Christidis and Ibáñez Rivas, 2012).
9 Currently, there are over 2 000 FP7 and H2020 projects in the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and
Information System (TRIMIS) database (https://trimis.ec.europa.eu/) which provides support for the Strategic Transport
Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA).
10 In 2018, major companies collectively drove around 2 million miles in AV mode in California (McCarthy, 2019). There
are varying levels of maturity across the available systems, with performances ranging from below one mile driven
per disengagement (i.e. cases where a car’s software detects a failure or the driver perceives a failure, resulting
in control being seized) to more than 11 000 miles (McCarthy, 2019). Making a conservative assumption that an
accident would only occur in 10 % of the disengagements, the best-performing AV model would have an accident
approximately every 100 000 miles. According to the US Bureau of Transport Statistics (https://www.bts.gov, last
accessed on 21 March 2019) the current rate for normal cars is 1 accident every 500 000 miles. This shows that
many years of continuous development may be necessary before all AVs become safer than normal cars.
11 Road Safety: new rules clear way for clean, connected and automated mobility on EU roads, 13 March 2019,
available at: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/news/2019-03-13-c-its_en
12 European Commission’s site on Cooperative, Connected and Automated Mobility (CCAM), Cooperation on cross-border
testing of CCAM, Annex: Discussion within the European ITS Committee on Cross-border testing:
https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/c-its_en
13 Vehicles with level-4 automation will represent a turning point at which the reference would be to car users rather
than car drivers. As there will be no requirement to pay attention to driving (at least at specific conditions for level-4
and at any condition for level-5 automation), the vehicle user will be free to use the travelling time for other activities.
14 Environmental Engineering news, Electric buses to connect Geneva airport: https://environmentalengineering.org.uk/
news/electric-buses-to-connect-geneva-airport-2993/
15 JRC Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model (PTTMAM): https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/pttmam and JRC-EU-
Times model: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/scientific-tool/jrc-eu-times-model-assessing-long-term-role-energy-technologies
 119 Endnotes

16 4 0 % of users in the 25-34 years age group compared to 23.4 % in the 45-54 years age group. Elderly people seem
to prefer driving-assistance functionalities over partial or full automation (Abraham et al., 2016).
17 Abraham et al. (2016) and Abraham et al. (2017) conducted a similar survey in two moments in time, to analyse
users’ concerns about full automation.
18 In the context of this study, urban is defined as settlements of over 250 000 inhabitants.
19 The number of vehicles might decrease significantly but these vehicles would be used more intensely (e.g. new
users such as the elderly or disabled, empty vehicle travelling, and shifts from other modes).
20 Among others, it is worth mentioning the UK Smart Mobility Living Lab (https://www.smartmobility.london/), the
Slovenian AV Living Lab (http://avlivinglab.com/), the Catalonia Living Lab (http://catalonialivinglab.com/services/
public-roads/) and the JRC Living Lab for Future Mobility Solutions, currently under development. In addition to
living labs, proving grounds for testing advanced vehicle functionalities in a safe and realistic environment are
also being developed. The most advanced proving grounds are Astazero (http://www.astazero.com/) and ZalaZone
(https://zalazone.hu/).
21 For the sake of simplicity in the report, the term capacity is used to identify both the maximum number of vehicles
a road segment can accommodate and the maximum number of vehicles a road network can serve in a given
amount of time, which is usually referred to as network productivity.
22 Travel costs, referred to as generalised cost of travel, are a combination of travel time, related monetary costs and
other factors that can affect user’ preference for one route over another.
23 This is defined as “user equilibrium” or “selfish Wardrop equilibrium” from the seminal work of John Geln Wardrop
(Wardrop and Whitehead, 1952a and 1952b).
24 A Braess-like network with one origin-destination (OD) pair and three routes is used in the study. Such a type of network
has been widely used in the literature to show elementary phenomena related to traffic assignment and equilibrium.
25 For example, the German Low Emission Zones (LEZ), Umweltzone, forbid vehicles with pollutant emissions over the
limits set by the Air Quality Directive (Directive 1999/30/EC) from entering certain city areas.
26 For example, the Uber surge pricing algorithm.
27 For example, the Solar Smart Charging project: https://smartsolarcharging.eu/en/
28 The term V2X indicates different communication flows among different entities: vehicle to vehicle (V2V), vehicle to
infrastructure (V2I), vehicle to pedestrian (V2P) and other possible flows.
29 C-ROADS Platform website: https://www.c-roads.eu/platform.html
30 3GPP, Release 14: http://www.3gpp.org/release-14
31 European Commission’s site on CCAM: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/c-its_en
32 Road Safety: new rules clear way for clean, connected and automated mobility on EU roads, 13 March 2019,
available at: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/news/2019-03-13-c-its_en
33 Schaub (2017). For UK, see Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018, available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/
ukpga/2018/18/contents/enacted.
34 Europe on the Move: Commission completes its agenda for safe, clean and connected mobility, 17 May 2018,
available at: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/modes/road/news/2018-05-17-europe-on-the-move-3_en
35 E xplanatory Memorandum (European Commission, 2018d).
36 Art. 11 (European Commission, 2018d).
37 Directive 2007/46/EC on the approval of motor vehicles (Article 20) to be replaced by Regulation (EU) No.
858/2018 on vehicle approval and market surveillance) (Article 39) from 1 September 2020 (European Parliament
and Council of the European Union, 2018).
38 Guidelines on the exemption procedure for the EU approval of automated vehicles, 9 April 2019, available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/growth/content/guidelines-exemption-procedure-eu-approval-automated-vehicles_en
39 Road Safety: new rules clear way for clean, connected and automated mobility on EU roads, 13 March 2019,
available at: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/its/news/2019-03-13-c-its_en
 Endnotes 120

40 REFIT review of the Motor Insurance Directive, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/initiatives/

ares-2017-3714481_en. In this respect, see also European Commission (2018c).
41 Call for expert on liability and new technologies, 2018, available at: https://ec.europa.eu/growth/content/call-experts-
group-liability-and-new-technologies_en
42 Public consultation on Recommendation on Connected and Automated Mobility (CAM), October 2018, available at:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/consultations/public-consultation-recommendation-connected-and-automated-
mobility-cam_en
43 Most of the sources provide similar results for what concerns the impact that AVs have on VoT. According to the
literature, VoT measures the willingness to pay for a unit of travel time (i.e. euros/hour), thus it represents the cost
spent on driving. It appears that VoT is lower for AVs than for conventional vehicles since AVs offer travellers the
opportunity to regain time formerly lost to driving as productive time (working, eating, sleeping). In this sense,
the time spent in a car is less costly because of the opportunity to use travel time for leisure or economically
productive tasks.
44 European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), available at: http://www.eafo.eu
45 Assuming an average battery size of 12 kWh for PHEVs and 40 kWh for BEVs, an import share of 95 % and a
conversion rate equal to 0.86 USD/€.
46 European Battery Alliance site: https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/european-battery-alliance_en
47 A video is available here: https://www.electrive.net/2018/11/13/altmaier-europa-soll-30-der-akkuzell-
nachfrage-decken/
48 If automation in the freight road transport sector leads to all goods being transported by road, the road transport
system might collapse as a result of the higher demand for road space (Paddeu et al., 2019). This calls for an
integrated approach among different modes of transport with the support of policymakers (Paddeu et al., 2019).
49 Transport sector defined as the sum of economic sectors: C29, C30, H in NACE Rev. 2 classification.
50 These data refer to the EU-28 aggregate calculated on the basis of available data from MS. JRC preliminary
estimations suggest the BERD in the transport sector will reach up to EUR 42 billion in 2015 (Grosso et al., 2019).
51 As defined in the context of the Energy Union Research, Innovation and Competitiveness priorities and the
integrated Strategic Energy Technology Plan.
52 Most recent year for which data for an assessment for the private sector can be provided.
53 China’s plans for the electrified, autonomous and shared future of the car, 4 April 2019: https://www.economist.
com/briefing/2019/04/06/chinas-plans-for-the-electrified-autonomous-and-shared-future-of-the-car.
54 The term ‘patent’ refers to patent families, which include all documents (supplementary applications, or
applications to different authorities) relevant to a single invention, to avoid multiple counting.
55 Codes and subsets of Y0T 10/6xx, Y0T 10/7xx, Y0T 90/1xx, Y04S 30/1xx of the CPC classification.
56 JRC SETIS (Joint Research Centre Strategic Energy Technologies Information System), Data collection and analysis
on R&I investments and patenting trends in support of the State of the Energy Union Report, JRC.C7 Knowledge for
Energy Union, 2018.
57 Number of firms per million people.
58 From the World Economic Forum's global competitiveness report 2018 (World Economic Forum, 2018, as cited
in KPMG International, 2019)
59 NACE (Nomenclature statistique des Activités économiques dans la Communauté Européenne) Rev.2 (Eurostat,
2008) two digits’ level.
60 Eurostat Labour Force Survey (LFS) data: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=lfsi
61 European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database from Eurofound: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/es/observatories/
emcc/european-jobs-monitor
 121 Endnotes

62 The relative wage position indicator reflects the percentile that each sector occupies in a country’s wage structure.
The wage indicator used is the median hourly wage in each occupation-by-sector combination in each country,
a measure derived from European Earnings Structure Survey 2010 and European Labour Force Survey data.
For more details, see: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/report/2017/occupational-change-and-wage-
inequality-european-jobs-monitor-2017
63 European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database from Eurofound: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/es/observatories/emcc/
european-jobs-monitor
64 Land transport sector dependency on ICT-based and specialised equipment and products will increase in the
future (CEDEFOP, 2014).
65 European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database from Eurofound: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/es/observatories/emcc/
european-jobs-monitor
66 European Jobs Monitor (EJM) database from Eurofound: https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/es/observatories/emcc/
european-jobs-monitor.
67 European Commission’s site on Employment, social affairs and inclusion: https://ec.europa.eu/social/main.
jsp?langId=en&catId=782
68 E C’s Directorate-General For Climate Action website: https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport_en
69 E EA National Emission Ceiling Directive Data viewer: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/
dashboards/necd-directive-data-viewer-1
70 Agreement between the Council and Parliament on the first-ever HDV CO2 emission reduction targets achieved on
19 February 2019: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/02/19/heavy-duty-vehicles-eu-
presidency-agrees-with-parliament-on-europe-s-first-ever-co2-emission-reduction-targets/ The 2030 target for HDVs
is a reduction of 30 % in CO2 compared to 35 % for LDVs for the same period.
71 For a thorough review, please refer to Zacharof et al. (2016) and Fontaras et al. (2017).
72 In reality, it seems that some manufacturers are cutting back their plans in this context given the lack of evidence
regarding actual fuel savings (Campbell, 2019).
73 See Pillar 1 of Annex 2 ‘Strategic Action Plan on Batteries’ (European Commission, 2018a).
74 See, for example, the H2020 project ProSUM: http://www.prosumproject.eu/
75 European Commission’s site on critical raw materials: http://ec.europa.eu/growth/sectors/raw-materials/specific-
interest/critical_fr.
76 See, for example, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (2018).
77 EU Science Hub Raw Materials Information system (RMIS): http://rmis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/?page=rm-profiles#/Cobalt
78 The life-cycle thinking approach is acknowledged by the scientific community overall and concretely applied
through the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology (ISO 14040, 2006).
79 Results based on the Abiotic Depletion Potential impact category.
80 Any action that involves processing, storing and using personal data must be done with data protection and
privacy in mind at every step.
81 Once a product or service has been released to the public, the strictest privacy settings must apply.
82 As discussed in the JRC report ‘Artificial Intelligence - A European perspective’ (Craglia et al., 2018).
83 Karl Benz: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karl-Benz
84 Helsinki Aims to Be Car-Free by 2025, Smart Cities Dive: https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/
sustainablecitiescollective/helsinki-aims-be-car-free-2025/297026/
85 Concello de Pontevedra’s site: a few results of the transformation:
http://ok.pontevedra.gal/en/few-results-of-the-transformation/
86 Eltis, The urban mobility observatory: http://www.eltis.org
 List of abbreviations 122

LIST OF
ABBREVIATIONS
3GPP Third-Generation Partnership Project
5G Fifth generation of communication networks
ADAS Advanced driver assistance systems
A
F Alternative fuels
A
 FI Alternative fuels infrastructure
A
I Artificial Intelligence
A  Vs Automated vehicles
A  VO Average vehicle occupancy
B  ERD Business enterprise expenditure on R&D (BERD)
B  EV Battery electric vehicles
C  AD Computer aided design
C  AM Connected and automated mobility
C  AVs Connected and automated vehicles
C  CAM Cooperative, connected and automated mobility
C  CMS C-ITS Security Credential Management System
C  CS Combined charging system
C  EF Connecting Europe Facility
C  EPT European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations
C-ITS Cooperative Intelligent Transport System
CNG Compressed natural gas
DDT Dynamic driving task
D  SM Demand-side management
EC European Commission
EEA European Environment Agency
EECC European Electronic Communications Code
E GNOS European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service
E JM European Jobs Monitor
EM Energy management
E oL End-of-life
E PO European Patent Office
E RTRAC European Road Transport Advisory Council
E TSI European Telecommunications Standards Institute
EU European Union
E Vs Electric vehicles
F C Fuel cell
F CEV Fuel cell electric vehicle
G  DP Gross domestic product
 123 List of abbreviations

G DPR General Data Protection Regulation

G HG Greenhouse gas
G NSS Global Navigation Satellite Systems
G SM Global System for Mobile Communications
G SMA GSM Association
G SR General Safety Regulation
H DV Heavy-duty vehicle
H EV Hybrid electric vehicle
H PC High power charger
H VAC Heating, ventilation and air-conditioning
ICT Information and communication technology
IEA International Energy Agency
ICE Internal combustion engine
IEC International Electrotechnical Commission
IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers
IoT Internet of Things
IP Intellectual property
IPO Intellectual Property Office
ISCO International Standard Classification of Occupation
ISO International Organization for Standardization
IT Information technology
I TS Intelligent transport system
J RC Joint Research Centre
L BS Location-based service
LCA Life-cycle analysis
L CV Light commercial vehicle
L DV Light-duty vehicle
LEZ Low emission zone
LiDAR Light detection and ranging
LNG Liquefied natural gas
LPG Liquefied petroleum gas
LTE-V2X Long-term evolution vehicular to X
L TZ Limited traffic zone
M  aaS Mobility-as-a-Service
M  ID Motor Insurance Directive
M  MTI Multimodal travel information
M  S Member State
NACE Nomenclature generale des activités économiques dans les Communautés européennes
N AP National access point
N PF National policy framework
OD Origin-destination
ODD Operational design domain
O EDR Object and event detection and response
PC Passenger car
p km Passenger kilometres
PM Particulate matter
 List of abbreviations 124

PLD Product Liability Directive

PRS Public regulated service
P T Public transport
R&D Research and development
R&I Research and innovation
R  ADAR Radio detection and ranging
R  oI Return on investment
RoW Rest of the world
RRI Responsible research and innovation
R TTI Real-time traffic information
S AE Society of Automotive Engineers
s c Scenario
S DG Sustainable Development Goal
S DV Self-driving vehicle
S ET Strategic Energy Technology
S  ETIS Strategic Energy Technologies Information System
STRIA Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda
S  UMP Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan
T EN-T Trans-European Transport Network
t km Tonne kilometres
T MS Traffic management system
TNS Transportation Network Companies
T RIMIS Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System
U  VARs Urban Vehicle Access Regulation scheme
V  2B Vehicle-to-building
V2G Vehicle-to-grid
V2I Vehicle-to-infrastructure
V 2N Vehicle-to-network
V 2P Vehicle-to-pedestrian
V 2V Vehicle-to-vehicle
V2X Vehicle-to-everything
VA Value added
V
 DM Vehicle design and manufacturing
V
 MT Vehicle miles travelled
V
 oT Value of time
W
 HO World Health Organization
 References 126

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 141 List of boxes and tables

LIST OF BOXES
AND TABLES
Box 1. Complexities of the transport system 28
Box 2. Freight transport activity 36
B ox 3. An orchestra conductor for a more efficient transport system 42
Box 4. Data governance 49
Box 5. Electricity targets in the EU 53
B
 ox 6. Regulation infringement by AVs creates safety hazards 62
 ox 7. Standardisation as a market enabler
B 69
B ox 8. The Netherlands, Germany and Sweden are ready for AVs 77
B ox 9. Training programmes for professional drivers 84
Box 10. Decarbonising road transport with biofuels 89
Box 11. Material supply in electrified mobility 96
B ox 12. New ethical issues in transport 107
B ox 13. Case study: Helsinki (Finland) plans to make car ownership a thing of the past 111
B ox 14. Case study: Pontevedra (Spain), ‘A Humanized City’ (Global Site Plans - The Grid, 2014) 112

T able 1: Summary of AFI and alternative fuel vehicles information delivered by MS in 2017 52
 List of figures 142

LIST OF
FIGURES
F igure 1: Enabling factors and societal implications of automated, connected, low-carbon and shared mobility 9
F igure 2: Road passenger transport activity evolution since 2005 and up to 2050 13
F igure 3: Road freight transport activity evolution since 2005 and up to 2050 13
Figure 4: Extract of transport technologies funded under H2020 18
Figure 5: Summary of SAE international levels of driving automation for on-road vehicles 19
Figure 6: Range of sales projections for AVs until 2055 20
F igure 7: Cost evolution of Li-ion batteries 22
Figure 8: Range of global sales projections for BEV/PHEV until 2040 23
Figure 9: Answers to the question: How comfortable would you feel ‘Being driven in a driverless car in traffic?’ 25
Figure 10: Answers to the question: ‘Do you own a car-sharing subscription?’ 27
Figure 11: Schematic representation of the relationship between land use, transport demand
and transport supply systems 28
F igure 12: How do you usually make your most frequent trip 32
F igure 13: VMT in the USA in the period 1950-2050 34
F igure 14: Automated shuttles can vary in size and internal features according to user needs and demand 35
F igure 15: Example of an alternative future delivery solution 37
F igure 16: Effect of different penetration levels of AVs and CAVs in a real highway scenario 40
F igure 17: Example of effects from information alone and information and coordination on travel time
and network capacity 42
F igure 18: Number of new data-driven transport platforms in Europe, USA and Canada and the rest of the world 46
F igure 19: Supply of recharging points and EVs across Europe 52
F igure 20: Country scores for AV policy and legislation 68
Figure 21: Ways in which standards can support the CAV industry 69
Figure 22: State of the main sectors affected by connectivity and automation, showing value added,
people employed and share of value added in the total EU-28 in 2015 72
F igure 23: Research funding for road transport in Horizon 2020 projects 75
F igure 24: Public R&I investments in sustainable transport in the EU and major economies in 2016,
as a share of the total investment in low-carbon energy technologies, and as time series 76
Figure 25: Patent filings in technologies related to energy storage, energy management and charging
EVs in the EU and major economies; and flow of high-value patents (filing for protection in more
than one patent office) for five major intellectual property offices (IPOs) 77
F igure 26: Evolution of employment in EU-28 selected economic sectors 2008-2017 80
F igure 27: Occupational profiles for specific transport-related sectors for EU-28 in 2014 80
F igure 28: Relative wage position for specific transport-related sectors in EU Member States in 2014 82
F igure 29: Task profile of drivers and mobile plant operators 83
 143 List of figures

F igure 30: Task profile of ICT professionals and technicians 83

F igure 31: GHG emissions by source in the EU-28 in 2015 and its evolution in the period 1990-2015 88
F igure 32: 2050 road transport tank-to-wheel million tonne CO2 emissions (MtCO2), references, base
scenarios and all measures 90
F igure 33: Transport GHG mitigation options from 2015 to 2050, central 2 °C scenario, world,
in billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2-eq) 91
F igure 34: Relationship between speed-fuel consumption (for ICE vehicles) and speed-electric
energy consumption (for EVs) for two vehicle categories (passenger car, PC and light-commercial vehicles, LCV) 93
F igure 35: Demand forecast in the EU for selected critical raw materials for the BEV, PHEV and HEV segments 96
F igure 36: Modelling of traction battery stocks and flows in the EU in 2030 taking into account
a high development scenario for repurposing; the arrows’ thickness is proportional to battery flows 98
F igure 37: Population density and observed network length per person in European cities 111
F igure 38: Percentage of population potentially covered by drone services and estimated
return of drone delivery hives per country 113
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The main contributors to this report were: María Alonso Raposo, Fulvio Ardente, Jean-Philippe Aurambout, Gianmarco
Baldini, Panayotis Christidis, Aris Christodoulou, Biagio Ciuffo, Amandine Duboz, Sofia Felici, Jaime Ferragut, Aliki Georgakaki,
Konstantinos Gkoumas, Monica Grosso, María Iglesias, Andreea Julea, Jette Krause, Bertin Martens, Fabrice Mathieux,
Gerhard Menzel, Silvia Mondello, Elena Navajas Cawood, Ferenc Pekar, Ioan-Cristinel Raileanu, Harald Scholz, Marie Tamba,
Anastasios Tsakalidis, Mitchell van Balen, Ine Vandecasteele from the European Commission (EC) Joint Research Centre
(JRC), and Robert Braun from the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS).

Other contributors were: Patricia Alves Dias, Claudia Baranzelli, Darina Blagoeva, Silvia Bobba, Pravir Chawdhry, Sara
Corrado, Nestor Duch Brown, Enrique Fernández Macías, Gianluca Fulli, Maria Cristina Galassi, Jonatan Gómez Vilchez,
Marton Hajdu, Akos Kriston, Carlo Lavalle, Laura Lonza, Alexandre Lucas, Fabio Marques dos Santos, Michail Makridis,
Antonios Marinopoulos, Alain Marmier, Konstantinos Mattas, Fabrizio Minarini, Pietro Moretto, Barbara Mortara, Elena
Paffumi, Francesco Pasimeni, Claudiu Pavel, Enrico Pisoni, Serenella Sala, Bert Saveyn, Natalia Serra, Christian Thiel,
Germana Trentadue, Paolo Tecchio and Andreas Uihlein.

We would like to express our gratitude to the following panel of experts for their comments and support:

• Constantinos Antoniou (Technical University of Munich, Germany)

• Robert Braun (IHS - Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies, Austria)
• Yannis Drossinos (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy)
• Georgios Fontaras (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy)
• Alexander Froetscher (AustriaTech, Austria)
• Umberto Fugiglando (Senseable City Lab, MIT - Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA)
• Suzanne Hoadley (Polis, Belgium)
• Satu Innamaa (VTT - Technical Research Centre of Finland, Finland)
• George Kamiya (IEA - International Energy Agency, France)
• Carlos Lima Azevedo (DTU - Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
• Alessandro Marotta (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy)
• Gereon Meyer (VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH, Germany)
• Dimitris Milakis (DLR - German Aerospace Center, Germany)
• João Peças Lopes (INESC Porto - Institute for Systems and Computer Engineering, Porto, Portugal)
• Adolfo Perujo Mateos del Parque (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Italy)
• Cristina Pronello (Sorbonne universités, UTC - University of Technology of Compiègne, France)
• Jasja Tijink and Richard Lax (Kapsch, Austria)
• Diana Urge-Vorsatz (Central European University, Hungary)
• Herman Van der Auweraer (Siemens Industry Software, Belgium)
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