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Bass Diffusion Model

Hucure idhwua uduebahs isheushrh udheuajah ufudjzhxeb uxushaiao uxuxhebxi uxhdnwnzjxj

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71 views2 pages

Bass Diffusion Model

Hucure idhwua uduebahs isheushrh udheuajah ufudjzhxeb uxushaiao uxuxhebxi uxhdnwnzjxj

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02cobalt.gaudy
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932 Par IIL The Dynamics of Growth 9.3.3 The Bass Diffusion Model end on the size of the adopter population. These include advertising, media reports, and direct sales efforts Frank Bass (1969) developed a model for the diffusion of innovations that Most popular models for new product growth and is widely used in marketing, eutGeys management of technology, and other fields, Bees solved the startup prob. tem by assuming that potential adopters become aware ve the innovation through external information sources whose magnitude and ersuasiveness are roughly Constant over time. (Gocial exposure and imitation) and the extemal sourres of awareness and adoption “Tucaully interpreted asthe effect of advertising (Figure 9-18 shows the feedback ‘Structure ofthe model with this interpretation, In Figure 9-18 the total adoption rate is the sum of adoptions resulting from ord of mouth (and implicitly other positive Feedbacks dence by the population of adopters or the installed base of the product) and adoptions resulting from adver- Using and any other extemal influences. Adoptions hers word of mouth are for- mulated exactly asin the logistic innovation diffusien, model (equation (9-31)), Bass assumed the probability that a potential adopter will adopt as the result of ex. AR = Adoption from Advertising + Adoption from Word of Mouth (9-36) Adoption from Advertising = ap (9-37) sa cigital model i continuous time, was specified as dat = AR = aP + BPA, where did ae, cee Patamcters tobe estimated statistically fro the ae sales or adopters. Biss (1969) Signor eralicity discus th feedback loop stuctcofine een Specify what the processes of imation were operationally instead cling thm innseate noes inntation, Others rete othe two {2005 as exter and nts influences on adoption The es Was also criticized for omiting (seth chao abe hat alee option decision ach ace aulvertisng effort (ee te challenges below se lo Bass, Krishan an an ose Figure 9-18 The Bass diffusion —— | Adopters model A The model — inoludes an 4a) external source of awareness and adoption, usually 4 Xe ++ Mouth f Adoption Total ‘ + Population interpreted as from Word the effect of ofMouth —~——— oN advertising \ Market +A SS ___ adoption \ +4 peering An Fraction Effectiveness i KS / “rao Rate _ c Adoption from Word of Mouth ~ ciPA/N (9-38) fnew the parameter a, advertising effectiveness, is the fractional adoption rate from advertising (I/time period) ihe two sources of adoption are assumed to he independent. Collecting terms, ‘he model can be expressed more compactly as AR = aP + ciPA/N (939) When an innovation is introduced and the adopter Population is zero, the only source of adoption will be external influences such as advertising. The advertising cffect will be largest atthe stat of the diffusion process and steadily diminish as the pool of potential adopters is depleted. CHALLENGE >). -—___ CHALLENGE Phase Space of the Bass D fusion Model Lake the logistic growth model, the Bass model has two stocks However, because P + A= Noonly one ofthese stocks is independent, and the mel is actually frst- order. Using the fact that P= N — A, express equation (9-39) in terms of the ‘adopter population A. Draw the phase plot for the model (a graph showing the adoption rate as a function of the adopter population), Draw the phase plot for three conditions: (i) advertising effectiveness is zero and all adoption occurs through Word of mouth, ii) word of mouth is zero (ci = 0) and all adoption occurs through, advertising, and (ii) both advertising and word of mouth cone none wo adoption dimiae Shift from positive to negative feedback? How does advertising wee the ‘ming, symmetry, and other aspects of the dynamics compared to the logistic model?

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