Assignment Task: Ojase Jain

Paragraph:

In an MBA class, the probability that a student is from an engineering background is 60%,
commerce background is 30%, or some other background is 10%.

Given that a student has an engineering background, their scores in component 1 are distributed
(approximately) as a normal random variable with mean 75 and standard deviation 3. Given that
a student has a commerce background, their scores in component 1 are distributed
(approximately) as a normal random variable with mean 76 and standard deviation 5. Given that
a student has neither an engineering background nor a commerce background, their component 1
scores are distributed (approximately) as a normal random variable with mean 85 and standard
deviation 4.

1. Given that a student has an engineering background, what is the probability they score 70 or
less in component 1? (Do not use the data set for this question) [5 Points]

Answer : 4.750%

formula z = (x bar -μ) / σ, where x is the score, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation. In this
case, we have: z = (70 - 75) / 3 = -1.67

Z= -1.67 corresponds to 0.475 as per below standard normal probability table (against -1.6 & 0.07
header)

Therefore, the probability that a student with an engineering background scores 70 or less in
component 1 is approximately 0.0475 or about 4.75%
2. In the given data set, what fraction of students with an engineering background have scored
70 or less in component 1? [5 Points]

Answer : 4.444%
In dataset we seen total 8 students of engg background have scored 70 or less in component 1.

Total engg students = 60% of total 300 students = 180

So Prob = 8/180 =0.0444 ie 4.444%

3. Given the distributions, what is the expected value of the class score in component 1? (Do
not use the data set for this question) [5 Points]

Answer : 76.3

E(x) = ∑ µ * P(x)

E =75 * 0.6 + 76 * 0.3 +85 *0.1 = 76.3

4. In the given data set, what is the average score by students in component 1? [5 Points]

Answer : 75.4733

From dataset excel we see that

SUM = 22642

Total students = 300

Avg or expected value = 22642/300 =75.4733

5. Given that a student scored 80 or more in component 1, what is the probability that this
student is neither from an engineering background nor a commerce background? (Do not use
the data set for this question) [10 Points]

Answer : 10.56%

formula z = (x bar -μ) / σ, where x is the score, μ is the mean, and σ is the standard deviation. In this
case, we have: z = (80 - 85) / 4 = -1.25

Z= -1.25 corresponds to 0.1056 as per below standard normal probability table (against -1.2 & 0.05
header)

So prob is 10.56%

6. What percentage of the students who have scored over 80 in component 1 are neither from
an engineering background nor a commerce background? [5 Points]

Answer : 37.9310%

From dataset excel we see that

Total students who scored over 80 in component 1 = 29

Out of 29 there were 11 students who were neither from engg background nor commerce background

Prob or percentage of students who have scored over 80 in component 1 are neither from an
engineering background nor a commerce background = 11/29 ie 0.379310 ie 37.9310%

7. The final score obtained by a student is the average of the scores in the three components.
Draw a sample of the students by choosing students with serial numbers 1, 11, 21, … 291.
Assume this to be a random sample.

a) Based on this sample, what is a point estimate of the mean score of students taking this
course? Answer : 74.49

b) Based on this sample, what is a 95% confidence interval of the mean scores of students taking
this course? [15 Points (5 + 10)] Answer : 72.28603 to 76.69397

Answer :

a) From dataset excel we see that

SUM = 2234.67 (avg of all three components with serial no 1,11,21 ---291)

Total students = 30 for this random samples

Avg or Mean score = 2234.67/30 =74.49

b) From dataset excel we see that

Sample std dev is not given so t distribution can be used here with n-1 ie 29 degree of freedom

Sample std dev formula used in excel for sample provides 5.803773

Unbiased sample std dev of sample S = √ (n)/(n−1) * 5.803773 (n=30) = 1.017095*5.803773 =5.90299

Sx = S/ √ 30 = 5.90299/√ 30 = 1.077734

95% confidence level means α = 5% ie 0.05

Based on below table critical value of t = 2.045 (against 29 degree of freedom & 0.05 α )

Margin of Error = Sx * 2.045 = 1.077734 * 2.045 = 2.203966

Lower Limit = 74.49 - 2.203966 = 72.28603

Upper Limit = 74.49 + 2.203966 = 76.69397

8. Suppose that the data set here represents a sample from a population of similar students.
Based on the data set, would you conclude that students with engineering backgrounds have an
average score of 75 in component 1? (Use α=0.05.) [15 Points]

Answer : YES

H0 : students with engineering backgrounds have an average score of 75 in component 1. μ=75

H1 : students with engineering backgrounds does not have an average score of 75 in

component 1. μ ≠ 75

It is two tail test so we consider

X bar = 74.82608 (sample mean score of 180 engg students in component 1)

Z= (X¯ - μ )/ s/√ n = 74.82608 -75 / (3/√ 180) = (74.82608 -75) / (4.23979/SQRT(184)) = -0.556434555

From below table we get from -0.50 to 0.05 we see P value 0.2912 ie 29.12%

Since P (29.12%) > α (5%) so we fail to reject Ho (NULL hypothesis)

Ie we cannot reject NULL Hypothesis means we conclude that students with engineering
backgrounds have an average score of 75 in component 1

9. Suppose we choose two random samples of 30 students each from the class.
The first sample contains students who have commerce backgrounds, and the
second sample contains students who have engineering backgrounds. The
average of the scores of the first sample is 75.8333, with a sample standard
deviation of 5.7813. The average of the scores of the second sample is 74.7444,
with a sample standard deviation of 3.4416. Based on these samples, would you
conclude that students with commerce backgrounds scored better than students
with engineering backgrounds? (Use α=0.05.) [15 Points]

Answer : NO .
 We conclude that students with commerce backgrounds did not scored
better than students with engineering backgrounds

H0 : μc – μe <= 0

students with commerce backgrounds did not scored better than students with engineering
backgrounds

Ha : μc – μe > 0

students with commerce backgrounds scored better than students with engineering
backgrounds
It is one tail test
Degree of freedom = N1+N2-2 for 2 sample =30+30-2 =58

Estimate Numerator = Xc –Xe = 75.8333-74.7444 = 1.0889

Standard Error =SQRT((5.7813^2/30 +3.4416^2/30) = 1.228387

Calculated t = Numerator / Denominator = 1.0889 / 1.228387 = 0.886447

Critical value t = t of α=0.05 at 58 dof = 1.671 from below table

Our calculated value of 0.886447 is lesser than critical value of 1.671 so we accept Ho or NULL
Hypothesis

So we cannot reject NULL hypothesis.

We conclude that students with commerce backgrounds did not scored better than
students with engineering backgrounds
10. Based on the average of all three components, grades are awarded to students. The rulebook
says that no more than 20% of the students can score the highest grade: A, and together, no more
than 60% of the students can score the highest and second highest grade i.e., A and B. Students
who score neither A nor B get a C grade. Now, the instructor wants to give as many A and B
grades as the rule book permits. In this context, answer the following questions:

a) What is the average score obtained by students with A grades?

Answer : 82.42

b) What is the average score obtained by students with B grades?

Answer : 76.22

c) What fraction of students with an engineering background have scored A grades?

Answer : 5/46 ie 0.108696 ie 10.8696%

d) Among students who scored A grade, what fraction had engineering backgrounds?

Answer : 1/3 or 0.333 ie 33.333%

[20 Points (5 + 5 + 5 + 5]

Answer :

a) A grade 20% of 300 = 60 students

When we arrange top 60 students 82.42avg score of all 3 components ,

We see average =

b) A & B grade 60% of 300 = 180 students

A grade were 60 students so remaining 120 students are from B grade.

When we arrange 120 top students post above 60 students,

avg score of all 3 components = 76.22

c) Total 20 students were there among 60 A grade students in Engg section.

Fraction of engg students = 20/184 = 5/46 = 0.108696 ie 10.8696%

When we arrange top 60 students avg score of all 3 components ,

We see average = 82.42

d) Total 60 students got A grade out of which 20 were from engg background

So Among students who scored A grade, what fraction had engineering backgrounds= 20/60 ie
1/3 or 0.333 ie 33.333%
END