Final 20220317 Aurora Public Webinar The Economics of Batteries

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 27

The economics of

batteries in Iberia
March 2022

CONFIDENTIAL
Today’s presenters and other key information

Ana Barillas Alejandro Zerain Enilio Álvarez


Head of Iberia Senior Associate Commercial Associate

Inês Gaspar Eduardo Campillos Martina Fava


Senior Analyst Analyst Analyst

For more information, please contact  [email protected]


Enilio Álvarez, Commercial Associate  +34 635 020 499 CONFIDENTIAL 2
Aurora provides data-driven intelligence for the global energy
transformation
United States

Power markets
6 Offices
Oxford | Berlin | Madrid
Renewables Sydney | Austin | SF Bay Area

Europe
Storage 225+
market experts
Electric vehicles

Hydrogen H2 550+
subscribing companies
Australia
Carbon CO2

Natural gas
100+
transactions supported in 2021
Regular detailed coverage Analytics on demand

Source: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 3


Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation

CONFIDENTIAL 4
1. The role of batteries in Iberia

The regulatory framework for storage has been amended over the last 18
months, but there are still regulatory barriers to be addressed
Regulatory and policy updates for storage

RDL 23/2020: includes storage within the Energy Storage Strategy: contemplates total capacity Capacity Market
sector’s regulatory framework, and allows for of 20 GW in 2030 and 30 GW in 2050, accounting for announcement
co-location and independent aggregators both large-scale storage and distributed capacity Deep-dive on current status
Jun 2020 Feb 2021 in CM section

RD 1183/2020: regulates storage, establishes


Financial support for innovative storage projects:
exemptions for self-consumption and simplifies
public consultation on regulation to award up to 150
procedures to support co-location. It also sets
million euros to 600 MW of storage projects which
the criteria for grid auctions: projects including
must be operational by 2026
storage or renewables should be prioritised1 Nov 2021
Dec 2020

Jun 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Next months

RL 960/2020: new renewable scheme Capacity Market (public consultation): Clarification on rules and
approved: hibridisation for new and existing mechanism is technology neutral and works procedures allowing storage to
plants and storage co-location are allowed as a centralised system in which the TSO charge from the grid
Nov 2020 contracts the required capacity No foresight on date
Apr 2021
PERTE for renewables, hydrogen and
Call for interest: storage and flexibility storage: considers measures to support
Objective to help identify the strategic priorities for the the development of both stand-alone
sector and help define the need for support mechanisms and hybrid storage installations
Jan 2021 Dec 2021
1) This criteria must be applied to all grid auctions; however, requirements and specific impact of the criteria are outlined in each call for auction.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 5


1. The role of batteries in Iberia

Wholesale and ancillary markets will be the key sources of revenues


for batteries, although other revenue streams could open up
Time prior to delivery Currently available markets
Delivery
Years Days Hours Minutes Seconds

CM WM AS ▪ Currently, batteries can


Capacity Market Wholesale Market Ancillary services participate in two main markets:
the wholesale market and the
▪ Maintains operational grid requirements ancillary services market
▪ Ensures sufficient reliable ▪ Market to buy and sell power to and balances demand and generation in real
time ▪ With a draft capacity market
capacity and security of meet demand on an hourly basis proposal now available in Spain,
supply in the long term ▪ Contract tenors can vary widely by country,
▪ Contracted from years ahead to up and a storage roadmap
▪ MITECO has published a but moving to shorter term contracts highlighting the need for local
to one hour ahead
draft proposal for a ▪ Key ancillary markets in Iberia: flexibility, we expect a more
capacity market in Spain, ▪ Market participants can trade in diverse spectrum of markets
day-ahead and intraday markets – Primary Reserve (non-remunerated) going forward
but implementation
timeline is uncertain – Secondary Reserve
▪ Two intra-day market modalities in ▪ To be competitive in a capacity
Iberia: explicit auction sessions – Tertiary Reserve market auction, storage assets
▪ Storage will be allowed to
every six hours and a continuous – Replacement Reserves will have to carefully consider
participate, but with a de-
intraday market up to 1 hour ahead the revenue opportunities
rating factor reflecting its – Constraints (day-ahead and intraday) across other markets
contribution to security of
supply
LFM
▪ Longer-duration storage Local Flexibility Markets
can typically benefit from
higher de-rating factors ▪ Storage can also help alleviate grid congestion, which needs to be analysed locally and
procured through local markets

Source: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 6


Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation

CONFIDENTIAL 7
2. Spanish capacity market

We do not expect the Spanish system to require new capacity by 2025,


but the CM is critical to ensure that existing CCGTs remain operational
Total installed capacity and de-rated capacity in Aurora Central1 ▪ If Spain keeps the 10% reserve
GW margin target, about 45 GW of
de-rated capacity will be needed
to fulfil security of supply
120 standards in 2025
114

▪ Assuming de-rating factors in line


105
with those used by CNMC in the
Part of the CCGT fleet would past, the Spanish system would
90 exit the market without any
not require any new capacity by
form of support
2025
75
▪ However, this assumes that the
existing CCGT fleet of 24.6 GW
60 remains operational
50
Reserve margin of 10% over
0 47 peak demand in 2025 ▪ Therefore, we believe that:
45 -4
– The capacity market will be
30
critical to ensure that the
existing CCGTs remain
operational
15
– Unless there are significant
changes to the security of
0
Total installed De-rated Coal and Nuclear New capacity De-rated CCGTs out of De-rated capacity supply standard and/or de-
capacity in 2022 capacity in 2022 reduction in firm needed capacity in 2025 the money with CCGT rating factors for existing
capacity retirements
technologies, in the near-term,
capacity market prices will
Interconnectors Solar Wind offshore Battery OCGT/Small gas peakers CCGT Nuclear largely be defined by the fixed
Pumped hydro Wind onshore Hydro Biomass CHP Coal operating costs of CCGTs
1) De-rating factors used are aligned with those used by CNMC in the past.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 8


2. Spanish capacity market

Other European capacity markets can provide useful benchmarks on


key design parameters: capacity targets and battery de-rating factors
1 2
Determining a suitable capacity target is key to support auction Batteries are usually de-rated to reflect their contribution towards
competitiveness and encourage new build capacity security of supply

De-rated and target capacity New capacity required by 2025 De-rating factors (latest auctions)
for 2025, GW GW %
4
70 70 70
47 45 67 65
1
Italy
44
41 40 GB
36
-2
France
-4 24 Belgium
De-rated Target
19
Status 5% Lower de- 0% de- 11
10
Quo (10% Margin rating for rating
10% Margin Margin) gas and for wind
Peak demand nuclear1 1h 2h 4h

▪ The definition of the capacity targets, and de-rating factors applied to existing ▪ De-rating factors for batteries depend on two aspects: duration and the
assets will define how soon the Spanish system requires new capacity overall capacity of the technology in the system
▪ If new capacity is required to meet the reserve margin targets, capacity prices ▪ As Spain currently has minimal battery storage, the contribution of batteries is
are expected to increase, providing further opportunities for new storage likely to be assessed initially mainly based on duration
projects

1) De-rating factor of 80% instead of 90% for gas and 94% for nuclear currently defined by CNMC.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 9


2. Spanish capacity market

Battery bids into the capacity market will only be competitive if stacking
wholesale and balancing market revenues
To estimate the bids of each technology, we accounted for its possible business models: assets only achieving revenues from the wholesale market, or stacking
wholesale and balancing market revenues. The indicative bidding range also considers each asset specific parameters (i.e. costs, de-rating factors) Max

Indicative bidding range for delivery in 2025 Avg.


€/kW/year (real 2020) Min
Existing assets Focus of today’s session New build assets
300

The ability of new storage assets to secure contracts


250 in the CM will depend on their ability to bid
For CCGTs not
competitively compared to existing CCGTs – that is
achieving any gross
only possible with active participation in ancillary
200 margins in the WM or
services markets
BM, the required
capacity payment could
150 be as high as their fixed
O&M costs

100

50

0
CCGTs 2h battery 4h battery Pumped hydro Demand-side Response

Revenue streams: Wholesale market Wholesale and balancing market


1) Bidding range is calculated as the annual capacity payment required for each asset to meet a target IRR under Aurora’s Central scenario. The average bid considers Aurora Central CAPEX assumptions and de-rating factors for delivery in 2025 with a 12%
target IRR. 2) Assumes an average storage duration of 12 hours.
Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 10
Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation

CONFIDENTIAL 11
3. Ancillary services

System operability challenges are managed by a suite of ancillary


services – these will be increasingly important as renewables grow
REN and REE Ancillary Services 1
Primary Reserve ▪ Unforeseen levels of generation
▪ Obligatory/ non-remunerated or demand need to be managed
Illustrative case study example of response to a major outage1 ▪ Automatic response of up to 30 seconds to ensure the operability of the
system
Frequency
Margin Large plant loss recovers to Margin 2 ▪ While Primary Response is not
50 Hz Secondary Reserve (aFRR) explicitly remunerated through
Energy Energy ▪ Voluntary service market mechanisms by REN or
▪ Remuneration based on two components: REE, energy balancing
available capacity and dispatched energy requirements are procured
Replacement Reserves
(30 minutes – 1 hour) 4 through different markets
3
Frequency Tertiary Reserve (mFRR) ▪ Expected imbalances at the day-
(50Hz) ▪ Mandatory offers for generators who opted in
Tertiary Reserve ahead stage are managed
3 ▪ Remuneration based on dispatched energy through Secondary Reserves
(15 minutes – 2 hours)
Frequency falls
▪ Close to real time imbalances in
2 Balancing Energy3 4
Secondary Reserve demand and supply (after gate
Replacement Reserve (RR) closure) are met through
(20 sec – 15 minutes)
▪ Previously called deviation management tertiary reserves and
▪ Remuneration based on dispatched energy
1 replacement reserves (energy
Primary Reserve balancing)
(0-30 secs)2
5 ▪ Our analysis covers the
Frequency Constraint Management
Secondary Reserve Market and
stabilises ▪ Service to solve technical constraints in the grid
Time the combination of Tertiary
▪ Managed through the re-dispatching of market
units Reserve and Replacement
Reserve, which we treat as “the
5
Balancing Market”3
1) Some services excluded for simplicity. 2) The first value represents the allowed full activation time while the second value represents the maximum duration of the delivery period. 3) The
Balancing Energy combines Tertiary Reserve and Replacement Reserve which represent over 70% of the energy traded in all markets, without considering grid constraint management services. In
Portugal, due to a lack of historical data, the analysis is focused on the Tertiary Reserve exclusively. Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 12
Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation


I. Overview
II. Stand-alone
III. Co-located
IV. Business model implications

CONFIDENTIAL 13
4. Battery investment optimisation - overview

Aurora analyses the economics of batteries based on a dispatch


optimisation between the wholesale market and ancillary services
1 2
Aurora has an integrated energy system framework Battery dispatch optimisation

We model the different markets in which the battery participates: ▪ Aurora’s dispatch model optimises the operations of storage across
multiple markets in order to maximise profits
Wholesale market
▪ The battery has limited foresight (one day) into the wholesale market
▪ Hourly granularity and secondary regulation band prices. Based on these prices, wholesale
▪ Iterative modelling with dispatch and capacity investment decisions and secondary reserve market participation is decided simultaneously
▪ Dynamic dispatch of plants
▪ Optimisation is constrained by no foresight in the balancing market.
▪ Endogenous interconnector flows When trading, the storage system can act in this market if prices are
more attractive than planned wholesale or secondary reserve actions.
Balancing market However:
▪ Integrates balancing energy requirements from Tertiary Reserve,
– The battery will be subject to penalties if it does not have enough
Replacement Reserve and Secondary Reserve
available capacity to comply with secondary reserve actions
▪ Stochastic estimate of imbalances
– The battery will also be subject to penalties if it does not have
▪ Opportunity cost based on the wholesale market operations
enough energy to comply with day-ahead wholesale market
▪ Hourly resolution of prices and energy in upward and downward reserve commitments
▪ The asset is assumed to be available for energy trading 24/7 each month.
Secondary regulation band The modelled storage system can differ in terms of duration, cycling
▪ Price forecast based on an econometric regression rates and degradation
▪ Calibration based on historical data, including the negative correlation of
▪ Co-location with renewables can further condition battery operation
regulation band prices with CCGT availability and price spike occurrences
(e.g. a battery can charge using spilled energy1, but might not be able to
▪ Accounts for the increasing competition from the participation of flexible discharge if the grid connection is fully utilised)
technologies i.e. batteries, pumped hydro, etc.

1) We consider spilled energy in our optimisation.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 14


Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation


I. Overview
II. Stand-alone
III. Co-located
IV. Business model implications

CONFIDENTIAL 15
4. Battery investment optimisation – stand-alone battery

A 2-hour battery cycling 2 times per day and a 4-hour battery cycling
1.5 times per day yield the highest revenues
A ▪ Beyond the market participation
Stand-alone
strategy, the target number of
Average total gross margins1 (average 2025 – 2050) cycles per day can also have an
€/kW/year, real 2020 impact on gross margins
▪ For a 2-h battery, the increase
2-h duration 4-h duration from 1 to 1.5 cycles increases
gross margins by about 21%.
Further cycle increases have a
7% marginal impact on gross margins
▪ Higher cycling allows batteries to
capture more spread
+21% opportunities. However, beyond
the optimal cycling point,
12% additional cycles would happen at
69%
lower spreads, reducing total
margins
– Our model optimises for
71% revenues and will not force
unlucrative cycles

24% ▪ Across all cases, the Balancing


Market gross margins are the
17%
biggest component, representing
1 cycle 1.5 cycles 2 cycles 2.5 cycles 1 cycle 1.5 cycles 2 cycles Target about 70%. This is driven by
(optimal) (not achieved) (optimal) (not achieved) Cycling2 higher price spreads in this
market (higher discharging and
Wholesale Market Gross Margin Balancing Market Gross Margin Secondary Reserve Revenue lower charging prices)
1) Revenues account for 7% generation tax. 2) Average daily cycling target

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 16


4. Battery investment optimisation – stand-alone battery

With a target IRR of 10%-12% and participation across all ancillary services
markets, battery bids into the CM could range between 17 and 74 €/kW-year

A Stand-alone

Illustrative present value of 4 h battery with 1.5 cycles


2 h battery with 2 cycles
cashflows
€/kW, real 2020 Present value of
Present value of De-rating factor De-rating factor
cashflows1 cashflows1
40% %, relative to total costs 60%
%, relative to total costs

11 11
11 7

100 100 58
61 Higher de-
Costs Revenues Missing
money rating will lead
to lower bids
WM BM SR in the CM
24
17
The missing money represents the
capacity payment that would make the Costs Revenues Missing money Costs Revenues Missing money
battery investment case for a target IRR.
This value, divided by the respective de-
rating factor, is equivalent to the bid that With a target IRR of 10-12%, bids could range between 17 and 74 €/kW-year
the operator would submit in the CM

1) Cashflows discounted at 10%. No repowering strategy is considered. Repowering increases gross margins thus might increase IRRs depending on repowering costs. Considers our standard CAPEX and OPEX assumptions for a battery entering in 2025

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 17


Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation


I. Overview
II. Stand-alone
III. Co-located
IV. Business model implications

CONFIDENTIAL 18
4. Battery investment optimisation – co-located battery

In Spain, battery co-location allows for simpler permitting process and


enables cost savings, however, it may constrain optimal operations

There are two possible configurations for battery projects: stand-alone and co-located. In co-location, a battery storage system is combined with a renewable asset
(or assets), sharing the same grid connection

1 Co-location has many economic and administrative advantages Illustrative day: solar asset exports and battery operations
▪ Since the RES plant only produces at its maximum level in some hours, that
▪ Simpler permitting process: existing facilities hybridising with storage are
leaves the potential for the battery to use the grid in the remaining hours
authorised to use the same grid connection without the need to request new
access permits1
▪ Cost savings compared to equivalent standalone projects: grid connection
and other CAPEX and OPEX costs savings spilled energy suboptimal
▪ Optimise the dispatch of the renewable asset against power prices: battery
operation
economic curtailment can be avoided and imbalance costs reduced

€/MWh
MWh
▪ Battery can charge for free: if the renewable asset is oversized in relation to
the grid connection, the battery can capture spilled energy

2 But a co-located battery may have slightly lower gross margins

▪ Battery operations might be suboptimal: we assume that the renewable


asset has priority in the use of the grid. Even though a co-located battery 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
might have the upside of charging for free, the solar spill might not be enough
Hour
to offset the downside of a constrained grid. Therefore, energy arbitrage WM price Grid capacity Solar Battery
gross margins might be lower for co-located batteries

1) Defined in RD 1183/2020. Note that, the asset for which the permitting license was assigned must represent at least 40% of the total installed capacity.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 19


4. Battery investment optimisation – co-located battery

A battery co-located with an oversized solar asset can improve


project gross margins by reducing spill by 93%
B Co-located

1 For a battery co-located with solar, sub- 2 3


Since a co-located battery can charge for Co-location allows for solar oversizing
optimal operations might have a negative
“free” from the solar, it can better optimise its without significant spill, leading to higher
impact on gross margins1, but this can be
WM strategy and shift value to this market gross margins for the combined asset
offset by co-location savings

25-year IRR for a 4-h battery Annualised PV of battery gross margins1 Annualised PV of solar and project gross margins1
% (2025-2050), €/kW (real 2020) (2025-2050), €/kW (real 2020)
1.1
0.4
7% The battery absorbs 93% of the
1.2 1.1 8% 8% energy that would otherwise be
spilled3 by the oversized solar

8.5 56%
7.0 65% 64%
6.9

37% IRR: IRR:


27% 28%
9.8% 13.5%

Stand- Solar not Solar Stand-alone Solar not Solar 40% Solar not Solar 40%
alone oversized 40% oversized oversized oversized oversized
oversized

Impact in gross margins Co-location savings2 WM BM SR Solar Solar+battery


1) Cash flows discounted at 12%. 2) Cost saving methodology based on capacity and not duration which is a conservative assumption for a longer duration battery. 3) In the first year of operation (2025), the solar would have spilt 5.6% of its total production if it
was not co-located. The spill will decrease over time since we consider solar degradation (1% first year, 0.4% in the following).
Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 20
4. Battery investment optimisation – co-located battery

If a battery cannot charge from the grid, its operations are dictated by
the solar generation profile; gross margins are reduced by about 50%
B Co-located
Currently, in Spain, there is no clarity on rules allowing storage to charge from the grid as well as no foresight on when it will be explicitly addressed. We have
evaluated the impact of this limitation on a co-located battery business model

4-h battery charging from grid 4-h battery not charging from grid
Illustrative day Illustrative day

€/MWh

€/MWh
MWh

MWh
1 6 12 18 24 1 6 12 18 24

25-year IRR1 ▪ We assume that the solar asset has priority to the grid 25-year IRR2 ▪ Battery operations are dictated by the solar profile:
% to export its generation. Since the export profile of both % it can only import when solar is producing, and only
assets is complementary, the optimal operations of the cycles once per day
8.5% battery are only marginally affected 0.7% ▪ Our model optimises battery charging operations to
▪ Battery operations follow the shape of WM and BM the lowest price hours
prices. For a 4-h battery, gross margins are optimal with ▪ The costs of non-exported solar generation are
a target of 1.5 cycles per day allocated to the battery, negatively impacting its
margins
Grid BM price WM price Battery operations Solar (not exported) Solar exports
1) Discounted at 12% for a 4-h battery. Considers revenues from WM, BM and SR during the period of 2025-2050. 2) Discounted at 12% for a 4-h battery. Considers revenues from WM, BM and only SR upwards during the period of 2025-2050.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 21


Agenda

1. The role of batteries in Iberia

2. Spanish Capacity Market

3. Ancillary Services

4. Battery investment optimisation


I. Overview
II. Stand-alone
III. Co-located
IV. Business model implications

CONFIDENTIAL 22
4. Battery investment optimisation – business model implications

Co-located batteries can outcompete existing CCGTs in the CM, but the
business model relies on market transparency and regulatory clarity
We calculated the bid to be submitted by a battery in the CM for all the analysed cases, assuming de-rating factors of 40% for a 2-hour and 60% for a 4-hour battery

Bid in the capacity market (missing money)


€/kW-year, real 2020 If charging from the grid is not allowed

Assumes that co-located


batteries could participate in the
Capacity Market auction

CCGT fixed costs

2-h battery 4-h battery 2-h battery 4-h battery 2-h battery 4-h battery

A Stand-alone B Co-located

12% target IRR 10% target IRR

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 23


Key takeaways

Key takeaways

1 The capacity market can be a catalyst for new battery development, but only if its ultimate design encourages new flexible capacity. Participation in other
ancillary services is likely to remain critical for the business case to work.

Batteries able to participate across ancillary services can stack up revenues from wholesale market arbitrage and participate in secondary and
2
tertiary/replacement reserve markets. The optimal strategy assumes participation across all services.

The participation strategy across different markets helps define the optimal cycling strategy for batteries of different sizes: 2 cycles for a 2-hour battery, and
3
1.5 cycles for a 4-hour battery.

Co-locating batteries with solar has some pros and cons: while it can help save on CAPEX and OPEX, co-location might also interfere with the optimal
4 operations of a battery. However, the net impact can be positive when a battery is co-located with a significantly over-sized solar asset, as energy spillage is
minimised.

The inability to charge from the grid is a significant hurdle for battery deployment. Without clarity on this issue and a defined plan to implement the required
5
changes, battery development will be hampered, even with a functioning capacity market.

Sources: Aurora Energy Research CONFIDENTIAL 24


Aurora Flexibility services

Iberia flexibility Market add-on service: Provides detailed power market


analysis and investment case data for batteries
Flexibility Market add-on service
Forecast reports & data Investment cases
Technology and market development reports Standalone Battery
▪ Overview of battery pipeline development ▪ At least six investment cases per country including:

▪ Overview of regulatory framework for batteries – Arbitrage of wholesale market and


balancing market
▪ Revenue stacking models for batteries
– Secondary reserve participation
▪ Projections for battery CAPEX and OPEX by
delivery year ▪ Annual project margins to 2050. IRR and NPV for
entry years 2023 and 2025
▪ Reports and datasets follow the same format with
content tailored to specific markets

Forecast data Co-location


▪ Central case forecast prices provided at ▪ At least two investment cases for battery co-
settlement period granularity until 2050 located with solar PV and onshore wind
– Wholesale power prices ▪ Annual project margins to 2050. IRR and NPV for
entry years 2023 and 2025
– Balancing market prices
– Ancillary services prices
Ongoing analyst support
Throughout the year you can contact us to discuss questions related to our analysis and our thoughts on flexibility market
and policy developments.

CONFIDENTIAL 25
Details and General Disclaimer
This document is provided "as is" for your information only and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
disclaimer given by Aurora Energy Research Limited and its subsidiaries Aurora Energy Research GmbH and Aurora Energy
Research Pty Ltd (together, "Aurora"), their directors, employees agents or affiliates (together, Aurora’s "Associates") as
to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. Aurora and its Associates assume no responsibility, and accept no liability for,
any loss arising out of your use of this document. This document is not to be relied upon for any purpose or used in
Publication
substitution for your own independent investigations and sound judgment. The information contained in this document
Excerpt from Strategic Insight Report “The
reflects our beliefs, assumptions, intentions and expectations as of the date of this document and is subject to change.
economics of batteries in Iberia, Part II”
Aurora assumes no obligation, and does not intend, to update this information.
Date Forward-looking statements
17 March 2022 This document contains forward-looking statements and information, which reflect Aurora’s current view with respect
to future events and financial performance. When used in this document, the words "believes", "expects", "plans", "may",
Prepared by "will", "would", "could", "should", "anticipates", "estimates", "project", "intend" or "outlook" or other variations of these
Inês Gaspar words or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements and information. Actual results
Alejandro Zerain may differ materially from the expectations expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements as a result of known
Eduardo Campillos and unknown risks and uncertainties. Known risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to: risks associated with
Martina Fava political events in Europe and elsewhere, contractual risks, creditworthiness of customers, performance of suppliers and
management of plant and personnel; risk associated with financial factors such as volatility in exchange rates, increases
Approved by in interest rates, restrictions on access to capital, and swings in global financial markets; risks associated with domestic
Ana Barillas and foreign government regulation, including export controls and economic sanctions; and other risks, including
Richard Howard litigation. The foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive.

Copyright
This document and its content (including, but not limited to, the text, images, graphics and illustrations) is the copyright
material of Aurora, unless otherwise stated.
This document is confidential and it may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or in any way used for commercial
purposes without the prior written consent of Aurora.

CONFIDENTIAL 26
27

You might also like