Final 20220317 Aurora Public Webinar The Economics of Batteries
Final 20220317 Aurora Public Webinar The Economics of Batteries
Final 20220317 Aurora Public Webinar The Economics of Batteries
batteries in Iberia
March 2022
CONFIDENTIAL
Today’s presenters and other key information
Power markets
6 Offices
Oxford | Berlin | Madrid
Renewables Sydney | Austin | SF Bay Area
Europe
Storage 225+
market experts
Electric vehicles
Hydrogen H2 550+
subscribing companies
Australia
Carbon CO2
Natural gas
100+
transactions supported in 2021
Regular detailed coverage Analytics on demand
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 4
1. The role of batteries in Iberia
The regulatory framework for storage has been amended over the last 18
months, but there are still regulatory barriers to be addressed
Regulatory and policy updates for storage
RDL 23/2020: includes storage within the Energy Storage Strategy: contemplates total capacity Capacity Market
sector’s regulatory framework, and allows for of 20 GW in 2030 and 30 GW in 2050, accounting for announcement
co-location and independent aggregators both large-scale storage and distributed capacity Deep-dive on current status
Jun 2020 Feb 2021 in CM section
RL 960/2020: new renewable scheme Capacity Market (public consultation): Clarification on rules and
approved: hibridisation for new and existing mechanism is technology neutral and works procedures allowing storage to
plants and storage co-location are allowed as a centralised system in which the TSO charge from the grid
Nov 2020 contracts the required capacity No foresight on date
Apr 2021
PERTE for renewables, hydrogen and
Call for interest: storage and flexibility storage: considers measures to support
Objective to help identify the strategic priorities for the the development of both stand-alone
sector and help define the need for support mechanisms and hybrid storage installations
Jan 2021 Dec 2021
1) This criteria must be applied to all grid auctions; however, requirements and specific impact of the criteria are outlined in each call for auction.
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 7
2. Spanish capacity market
De-rated and target capacity New capacity required by 2025 De-rating factors (latest auctions)
for 2025, GW GW %
4
70 70 70
47 45 67 65
1
Italy
44
41 40 GB
36
-2
France
-4 24 Belgium
De-rated Target
19
Status 5% Lower de- 0% de- 11
10
Quo (10% Margin rating for rating
10% Margin Margin) gas and for wind
Peak demand nuclear1 1h 2h 4h
▪ The definition of the capacity targets, and de-rating factors applied to existing ▪ De-rating factors for batteries depend on two aspects: duration and the
assets will define how soon the Spanish system requires new capacity overall capacity of the technology in the system
▪ If new capacity is required to meet the reserve margin targets, capacity prices ▪ As Spain currently has minimal battery storage, the contribution of batteries is
are expected to increase, providing further opportunities for new storage likely to be assessed initially mainly based on duration
projects
1) De-rating factor of 80% instead of 90% for gas and 94% for nuclear currently defined by CNMC.
Battery bids into the capacity market will only be competitive if stacking
wholesale and balancing market revenues
To estimate the bids of each technology, we accounted for its possible business models: assets only achieving revenues from the wholesale market, or stacking
wholesale and balancing market revenues. The indicative bidding range also considers each asset specific parameters (i.e. costs, de-rating factors) Max
100
50
0
CCGTs 2h battery 4h battery Pumped hydro Demand-side Response
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 11
3. Ancillary services
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 13
4. Battery investment optimisation - overview
We model the different markets in which the battery participates: ▪ Aurora’s dispatch model optimises the operations of storage across
multiple markets in order to maximise profits
Wholesale market
▪ The battery has limited foresight (one day) into the wholesale market
▪ Hourly granularity and secondary regulation band prices. Based on these prices, wholesale
▪ Iterative modelling with dispatch and capacity investment decisions and secondary reserve market participation is decided simultaneously
▪ Dynamic dispatch of plants
▪ Optimisation is constrained by no foresight in the balancing market.
▪ Endogenous interconnector flows When trading, the storage system can act in this market if prices are
more attractive than planned wholesale or secondary reserve actions.
Balancing market However:
▪ Integrates balancing energy requirements from Tertiary Reserve,
– The battery will be subject to penalties if it does not have enough
Replacement Reserve and Secondary Reserve
available capacity to comply with secondary reserve actions
▪ Stochastic estimate of imbalances
– The battery will also be subject to penalties if it does not have
▪ Opportunity cost based on the wholesale market operations
enough energy to comply with day-ahead wholesale market
▪ Hourly resolution of prices and energy in upward and downward reserve commitments
▪ The asset is assumed to be available for energy trading 24/7 each month.
Secondary regulation band The modelled storage system can differ in terms of duration, cycling
▪ Price forecast based on an econometric regression rates and degradation
▪ Calibration based on historical data, including the negative correlation of
▪ Co-location with renewables can further condition battery operation
regulation band prices with CCGT availability and price spike occurrences
(e.g. a battery can charge using spilled energy1, but might not be able to
▪ Accounts for the increasing competition from the participation of flexible discharge if the grid connection is fully utilised)
technologies i.e. batteries, pumped hydro, etc.
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 15
4. Battery investment optimisation – stand-alone battery
A 2-hour battery cycling 2 times per day and a 4-hour battery cycling
1.5 times per day yield the highest revenues
A ▪ Beyond the market participation
Stand-alone
strategy, the target number of
Average total gross margins1 (average 2025 – 2050) cycles per day can also have an
€/kW/year, real 2020 impact on gross margins
▪ For a 2-h battery, the increase
2-h duration 4-h duration from 1 to 1.5 cycles increases
gross margins by about 21%.
Further cycle increases have a
7% marginal impact on gross margins
▪ Higher cycling allows batteries to
capture more spread
+21% opportunities. However, beyond
the optimal cycling point,
12% additional cycles would happen at
69%
lower spreads, reducing total
margins
– Our model optimises for
71% revenues and will not force
unlucrative cycles
With a target IRR of 10%-12% and participation across all ancillary services
markets, battery bids into the CM could range between 17 and 74 €/kW-year
A Stand-alone
11 11
11 7
100 100 58
61 Higher de-
Costs Revenues Missing
money rating will lead
to lower bids
WM BM SR in the CM
24
17
The missing money represents the
capacity payment that would make the Costs Revenues Missing money Costs Revenues Missing money
battery investment case for a target IRR.
This value, divided by the respective de-
rating factor, is equivalent to the bid that With a target IRR of 10-12%, bids could range between 17 and 74 €/kW-year
the operator would submit in the CM
1) Cashflows discounted at 10%. No repowering strategy is considered. Repowering increases gross margins thus might increase IRRs depending on repowering costs. Considers our standard CAPEX and OPEX assumptions for a battery entering in 2025
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 18
4. Battery investment optimisation – co-located battery
There are two possible configurations for battery projects: stand-alone and co-located. In co-location, a battery storage system is combined with a renewable asset
(or assets), sharing the same grid connection
1 Co-location has many economic and administrative advantages Illustrative day: solar asset exports and battery operations
▪ Since the RES plant only produces at its maximum level in some hours, that
▪ Simpler permitting process: existing facilities hybridising with storage are
leaves the potential for the battery to use the grid in the remaining hours
authorised to use the same grid connection without the need to request new
access permits1
▪ Cost savings compared to equivalent standalone projects: grid connection
and other CAPEX and OPEX costs savings spilled energy suboptimal
▪ Optimise the dispatch of the renewable asset against power prices: battery
operation
economic curtailment can be avoided and imbalance costs reduced
€/MWh
MWh
▪ Battery can charge for free: if the renewable asset is oversized in relation to
the grid connection, the battery can capture spilled energy
1) Defined in RD 1183/2020. Note that, the asset for which the permitting license was assigned must represent at least 40% of the total installed capacity.
25-year IRR for a 4-h battery Annualised PV of battery gross margins1 Annualised PV of solar and project gross margins1
% (2025-2050), €/kW (real 2020) (2025-2050), €/kW (real 2020)
1.1
0.4
7% The battery absorbs 93% of the
1.2 1.1 8% 8% energy that would otherwise be
spilled3 by the oversized solar
8.5 56%
7.0 65% 64%
6.9
Stand- Solar not Solar Stand-alone Solar not Solar 40% Solar not Solar 40%
alone oversized 40% oversized oversized oversized oversized
oversized
If a battery cannot charge from the grid, its operations are dictated by
the solar generation profile; gross margins are reduced by about 50%
B Co-located
Currently, in Spain, there is no clarity on rules allowing storage to charge from the grid as well as no foresight on when it will be explicitly addressed. We have
evaluated the impact of this limitation on a co-located battery business model
4-h battery charging from grid 4-h battery not charging from grid
Illustrative day Illustrative day
€/MWh
€/MWh
MWh
MWh
1 6 12 18 24 1 6 12 18 24
25-year IRR1 ▪ We assume that the solar asset has priority to the grid 25-year IRR2 ▪ Battery operations are dictated by the solar profile:
% to export its generation. Since the export profile of both % it can only import when solar is producing, and only
assets is complementary, the optimal operations of the cycles once per day
8.5% battery are only marginally affected 0.7% ▪ Our model optimises battery charging operations to
▪ Battery operations follow the shape of WM and BM the lowest price hours
prices. For a 4-h battery, gross margins are optimal with ▪ The costs of non-exported solar generation are
a target of 1.5 cycles per day allocated to the battery, negatively impacting its
margins
Grid BM price WM price Battery operations Solar (not exported) Solar exports
1) Discounted at 12% for a 4-h battery. Considers revenues from WM, BM and SR during the period of 2025-2050. 2) Discounted at 12% for a 4-h battery. Considers revenues from WM, BM and only SR upwards during the period of 2025-2050.
3. Ancillary Services
CONFIDENTIAL 22
4. Battery investment optimisation – business model implications
Co-located batteries can outcompete existing CCGTs in the CM, but the
business model relies on market transparency and regulatory clarity
We calculated the bid to be submitted by a battery in the CM for all the analysed cases, assuming de-rating factors of 40% for a 2-hour and 60% for a 4-hour battery
2-h battery 4-h battery 2-h battery 4-h battery 2-h battery 4-h battery
A Stand-alone B Co-located
Key takeaways
1 The capacity market can be a catalyst for new battery development, but only if its ultimate design encourages new flexible capacity. Participation in other
ancillary services is likely to remain critical for the business case to work.
Batteries able to participate across ancillary services can stack up revenues from wholesale market arbitrage and participate in secondary and
2
tertiary/replacement reserve markets. The optimal strategy assumes participation across all services.
The participation strategy across different markets helps define the optimal cycling strategy for batteries of different sizes: 2 cycles for a 2-hour battery, and
3
1.5 cycles for a 4-hour battery.
Co-locating batteries with solar has some pros and cons: while it can help save on CAPEX and OPEX, co-location might also interfere with the optimal
4 operations of a battery. However, the net impact can be positive when a battery is co-located with a significantly over-sized solar asset, as energy spillage is
minimised.
The inability to charge from the grid is a significant hurdle for battery deployment. Without clarity on this issue and a defined plan to implement the required
5
changes, battery development will be hampered, even with a functioning capacity market.
CONFIDENTIAL 25
Details and General Disclaimer
This document is provided "as is" for your information only and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
disclaimer given by Aurora Energy Research Limited and its subsidiaries Aurora Energy Research GmbH and Aurora Energy
Research Pty Ltd (together, "Aurora"), their directors, employees agents or affiliates (together, Aurora’s "Associates") as
to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. Aurora and its Associates assume no responsibility, and accept no liability for,
any loss arising out of your use of this document. This document is not to be relied upon for any purpose or used in
Publication
substitution for your own independent investigations and sound judgment. The information contained in this document
Excerpt from Strategic Insight Report “The
reflects our beliefs, assumptions, intentions and expectations as of the date of this document and is subject to change.
economics of batteries in Iberia, Part II”
Aurora assumes no obligation, and does not intend, to update this information.
Date Forward-looking statements
17 March 2022 This document contains forward-looking statements and information, which reflect Aurora’s current view with respect
to future events and financial performance. When used in this document, the words "believes", "expects", "plans", "may",
Prepared by "will", "would", "could", "should", "anticipates", "estimates", "project", "intend" or "outlook" or other variations of these
Inês Gaspar words or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements and information. Actual results
Alejandro Zerain may differ materially from the expectations expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements as a result of known
Eduardo Campillos and unknown risks and uncertainties. Known risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to: risks associated with
Martina Fava political events in Europe and elsewhere, contractual risks, creditworthiness of customers, performance of suppliers and
management of plant and personnel; risk associated with financial factors such as volatility in exchange rates, increases
Approved by in interest rates, restrictions on access to capital, and swings in global financial markets; risks associated with domestic
Ana Barillas and foreign government regulation, including export controls and economic sanctions; and other risks, including
Richard Howard litigation. The foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive.
Copyright
This document and its content (including, but not limited to, the text, images, graphics and illustrations) is the copyright
material of Aurora, unless otherwise stated.
This document is confidential and it may not be copied, reproduced, distributed or in any way used for commercial
purposes without the prior written consent of Aurora.
CONFIDENTIAL 26
27