MODULE 4: PROBABILITY

I. SAMPLE SPACE
 TOPICS:
4. Probability
 Experiment. Used to describe any process that generates a set of
4.1. Sample Space and Relationship among Events
data.
4.2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
 Sample Space. The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical
4.3. Rules of Probability
experiment and is represented by the symbol S.
 LEARNING OUTCOME:
 Element (Member of Sample Space or Sample Point). Each
 Understand the concepts of sample space, events,
outcome in a sample space.
counting principles and different rules in probability.
 Trial. A performance or repetition of an experiment.
 Solve probability problems.
 Probability. Measure of chance of an event taking place.

Note: If a sample point has a finite number of elements, members

INTRODUCTION: are listed using commas as separator and enclosed in a bracket.

In the study of statistics, we are concerned basically with the Format: S = { a, b, c }

presentation and interpretation of chance outcomes that occur in a
planned study or scientific investigation. Example #1: Possible outcomes when a coin is tossed.

Hence, the statistician is often dealing with either experimental data, Example #2: Experiment of tossing a die.

representing counts or measurements, or perhaps with categorical data a. number shows on the top of the space
that can be classified according to some criterion. b. if the number is even or odd
c. if the number is even
Statisticians use the word experiment to describe any process that
generates a set of data. And the end result was a set of data that of d. if the number is odd
course is subject to uncertainty.
 In some experiments it will be helpful to list the elements of a II. EVENTS
sample space systematically by means of a tree diagram.
A. Event. An event is a subset of a sample space.

 Single Event. If an event is a set containing only one element

Example #3: Suppose that three items are selected from a manufacturing of a sample space.
process. Each item is inspected and classified GOOD, G, or REJECT,  Compound Event. One that can be expressed as a union of
R. What are the possible outcomes? simple events.

Example #4: What are the possible outcomes when four coins are tossed Example #6: Drawing a card from a deck of 52 playing cards.
altogether?
a. If S are the suits of the playing cards?
Note: If sample spaces with a large or infinite number of sample points b. If Event A is the possibility of getting a heart, then subset A is?
are best described by a statement or a rule. c. If event B is drawing a red card, subset will be?

Format: S = { x / x is (STATEMENT) } where / is read “such

that” B. Null Space. A subset of a sample space that contains no element
and denoted by the symbol Ø or { }.

Example #7: If A = { x / x is a nonprime factor of 7 }

Example #5: Set of students in Math 403 section with names
beginning with a consonant. Example# 8: If S = { x / 10 ≤ x ≤ 20 }, A is a subset of S which is
less than 9.
C. Venn Diagram. A pictorial illustration of the relationships between III. OPERATION WITH EVENTS
events and the corresponding sample space.
a. Intersection with Events. The event containing all th elements that
Legend: are common to A and B, and denoted by the symbol “ A Ո B “.

 Rectangle – represents the sample space S

A B
 Circle – represents events and drawn inside the
rectangle.

S
A
Example #9: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 }, what is A Ո
B C
B?

Example #10: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what

is A Ո B?
Analysis:

1.

2.
b. Mutually Exclusive (Independent) Events. Two events A and B
3.
are mutually exclusive if A Ո B = Ø; that is, A and B have no elements
4. in common.

S
A B
Example #11: Suppose that a die is tossed. Let,
S
A = event that an even number turns up A B

B = event that an odd number occurs

What is A Ո B? Example #13: Let A = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } and B = { 2, 4, 6, 8 },

what is A U B?

Example #12: A card is drawn from 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. Let the Example #14: Let A = { x / 5 ≤ x ≤ 13 } and B = { x / 9 ≤ x < 17 }, what
events be is A U B?

A = {the card drawn is prime}

B = {the card drawn is composite} d. Complement of an Event. The complement of an event A with
respect to S is the set of all elements of S that are not in A.
C = {the card is even}
Complement of A is denoted by the symbol A’.
D = {the card is divisible by three}
A ‘ = { x / x Є S and x Є A }
a. Are A and B mutually exclusive events?
S
b. How about C and D? A

A’

c. Union of Events. The union of two events A and B, denoted by the

S= A Ս A’
symbol “A U B”, is the event containing all the elements that belong
to A or to B or to both.
Example #15: Let S = {numbers from 1 to 9}, A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} and B 7. Ø’ = S
= {2, 4, 6, 8}, what is A’?
8. Verify that A’ U (B’ U C) = (A Ո B’) U (A’ U C) using information
Example #16: Let S = {x / 1 ≤ x ≤ 20} and B = {x / 9 ≤ x < 17}, what in Example 17.
B’?

Example #17: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}, A = {2, 4, 7, 9}, B = {1, 3,

7, 9}, C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7}, list all the elements of the sets
corresponding to the following events:

a. (C’ Ո D) U B

b. (S Ո B’)’

LECTURE 2.1 LEARNING TASK

*Verify the following definitions by the use of Venn Diagram.

1. A Ո Ø = Ø

2. A U A’ = S

3. (A’)’ = A

4. A U Ø = A

5. S’ = Ø

6. A Ո A’ = Ø
LECTURE 2.2: COUNTING SAMPLE POINTS Example #22: How many five digit numbers can be found from the
digits 1 to 9 if:
THEOREM 1: Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be performed
in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be performed a. it should be an even number
in n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed in n1 n2 ways.
b. an odd number?
Example #18: Sarah must wear one of six blouses and one of her four
c. distinct with the first and last number is even
skirts. How many possible outfits does she have?
d. the third digit is odd
Example #19: How many sample points are there in the sample space
when a pair of dice is thrown once?

PERMUTATION. An arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

THEOREM 2: Generalized Multiplication Rule. If an operation can be Example #23: Consider the letters a, b, and c. Possible permutations are:
performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second operation can be
without listing:
performed in n2 ways, if for each of first two a third operation can be
performed in n3 ways, and so on, then the sequence of k operations can by formula: P=3x2x1
be performed in n1 n2 n3 ……nk ways.
by symbol: P=nPr
Example #20: How many lunches are possible consisting a soup, an
Note:
sandwich, dessert, and a drink if one can select from 5 soups, 4 kinds of
sandwiches, 6 desserts, and 7 drinks? It is denoted by nPr = P(n,r) = P (nr)

Example #21: How many four digit numbers can be formed from the
digits 1 to 9 if:

a. each digit can be used only once?

b. repetitions are allowed?

THEOREM 3: Permutations. The number of permutations of n distinct THEOREM 5: Circular Permutations. The number of permutations of
objects is n! n distinct objects arranged in a circle is
P =(n–1)!
Example #24: What is the number of permutations of the vowels in the
English alphabet?
This is so by fixing one fixing one object in just one position.

Example #27: In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in a

THEOREM 4: Linear Permutations. The number of permutations of n circle?
distinct objects taken r at a time is
Example #28: In how many ways can 4 boys and 4 girls be seated at a
n! round table with the boys and girls alternating?
nPr = (n−r)!

THEOREM 6: Indistinguishable Permutations. The number of

Note: The number of permutations of n things taken all at a time is distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are one of a kind, n2 of a
second kind, ………, nk of a kth kind is
nPn = n!
n!
P=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 !…..𝑛3 !
Example #25: In how many ways can 4 boys be seated in a row of 7
stools?
Example #29: How many permutations can be made with all the letters
Example #26: How many permutations can be made from the letters in
in the word PROBABILITY?
the word CYCLE if
Example #30: How many signals can be made by arranging 8 flags in a
a. three letters are used at a time?
line if 3 are red, 2 are blue, and 3 are white?
b. all letters are used?

c. all letters are used but the first is a vowel?

Example #31: How many permutations can be made with all the letters THEOREM 8: COMBINATION. The number of ways of n distinct
in the word objects taken r at a time is
PNEUMONOULTRAMICROSCOPICSILICOLVOLCANOCONIOS
𝑛 n!
( ) = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = r!(𝑛−𝑟)!
IS? 𝑟
Example #32: How many different ways can 5 red, 5 yellow, and 5 green
bulbs be arranged in a string of Christmas tree lights with 15 sockets?
Example #35: From a group of 4 men and 3 women, how many
committees of size 3 are possible?

THEOREM 7: The number of ways of partitioning a set of n objects a. with no restrictions

into r cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n2 elements in the second b. with 1 man and 2 women
cell, and so on, is c. with 2 men and 1 woman if a certain man must be on the
committee
𝑛 n!
(𝑛 , 𝑛 … . . 𝑛 ) = 𝑛 ! 𝑛 !…..𝑛 !
1 2 𝑟 1 2 𝑟
Example #36: In how many ways can a committee of 5 girls be selected
where n1 + n2 + …… + nr = n from eight girls if two of them refuse to be together?

Example #37: In how many ways can a set of 4 English books and two
Filipino books be chosen from a set of 6 different English books and 7
Example #33: How many ways can 7 people be assigned to 1 triple and
different Filipino books?
2 double rooms?

Example #34: A college plays 12 football games during a season. In

how many ways can the team end the season with 7 wins, 3 losses, and Note: The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time
2 ties? is related to the number of combinations by the formula

𝑛
nPr = ( ) 𝑟! = (𝑛𝐶𝑟) 𝑟!
𝑟
LECTURE 2.3: PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT Example #42: A box contains one yellow marble, one red marble and
one blue marble of the same sizes. What is the probability of drawing a
Probability of an Event. The probability of an event A is the sum of the
yellow and a red marble together?
probabilities of all the sample points in A. Therefore,

0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1, P (Ø) = 0 , P (S) = 1

IV. ADDITIVE RULES

THEOREM 10: Additive Rule. If A and B are any two events, then
Example #38: A coin is tossed once. What is the probability that a head
occurs? P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A Ո B)

Example #39: If a die is tossed once. What is the probability that an even S
number occurs? A B
AՈB

B
THEOREM 9: If an experiment can result in any one of N different
equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds
to event A, then the probability of event A is,  Corollary 1: If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

𝑛 P ( A U B ) = P (A) + P (B)
P (A) =
𝑁
 Corollary 2: If A1, A2, A3,…., An,B are mutually exclusive events,
then
Example #40: If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card, find the
P (A1 U A2 U A3 U …. U An) = P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P
probability that it is a diamond.
(An)
Example #41: In a poker hand consisting 0f 7 cards, find the probability
Note: P (A1) + P (A2) + P (A3) + …..+ P (An) = P (S) = 1
of holding 2 Kings, 3 Aces and 2 Jacks?
Example #43: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when V. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
a pair of dice is tossed?
Conditional Probability. The conditional probability of B, given A,
Example #44: In a college graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied denoted by P ( B / A ), is defined by the equation
mathematics, 69 studied history and 35 studied both mathematics and
P(AՈB
history. If one of these students is selected at random, find the P (𝐵⁄𝐴) = if P(A) > 0
𝑃 (𝐴)
probability that

a. the student takes mathematics or history

Example #46: A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by
b. the student does not take either of these subjects
sex and their level of education attained.
c. the student takes history but not mathematics
Education Male Female
Elementary 38 45

THEOREM 11: Complements. If A and A’ are complementary events, Secondary 28 50

then College 22 17

P ( A ) + ) P ( A’ ) = 1
If a person picked at random from this group, find the probability that

S a. the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary

A
education;

b. the person does not have a college degree, given that the person
is a female.

Example #45: Among the 40 ME students 12 likes MATH 403. How

many dislikes the course?
Solution: Example #50: The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a
particular illness is 0.7. Given that the doctor makes an incorrect
Row
Education Male Female diagnosis, the probability that the patient enters a law suit is 0.9.
Total
Elementary 38 45 a. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect
Secondary 28 50 diagnosis and the patient sues?

College 22 17
b. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect
Column diagnosis and the patient doesn’t sue?
Total

Independent Events. Two events A and B are independent if either

P ( B/A ) = P (B) or P (A/B) = P (A)

otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example #47: If two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary

deck of deck of cards, with replacement. The events are defined as

A: the first card is Queen

B: the second card is a Heart

a. What is P (B/A)? Are A and B independent?

Example #48: If the two cards are drawn in succession from an ordinary THEOREM 13: Special Multiplicative Rule. If two events A and B are
deck of deck of cards, without replacement. The events are defined as independent, then

A: the first card is Queen P ( A Ո B ) = P (A) P (B)

B: the second card is a Heart

What is P (B/A)? What conclusion you can derive from the answer?

THEOREM 14: Generalized Multiplicative Rule. If in an

experiment, the events A1, A2, A3,…., Ak, can occur, then
VI. MULTIPLICATIVE RULE
P (A1 Ո A2 Ո A3 Ո…. ՈAk) = P(A1) P(A2/A1) x P(A3 / A1 Ո A2)………
THEOREM 12: Multiplicative Rule. If in an experiment, the events A
and B can both occur then P (Ak / A1 Ո A2 Ո…….Ո Ak-1

P ( A Ո B ) = P (A) P ( 𝑩⁄𝑨 ) = P (B Ո A) = P (B) P (𝑨⁄𝑩)

Note: If events are independent

Example #49: Suppose that a box contains 20 bulbs and 7 of which are A1 Ո A2 Ո A3 Ո…….ՈAk = P (A1) P( A2) P(A3) ….P (Ak )

defective. If 2 bulbs selected at random and removed from the box in

succession without replacement, what is the probability that
Example #51: Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement
a. both bulbs are defective from an ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the first

b. both bulbs are non-defective card is a black ace, the second card is a face card, and the third card is
greater than 6 but less than 10.
VII. BAYES’ RULE Row
EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED
Total
E E’ MALE 38 45
FEMALE 28 50
Column
A
Total
THEOREM 15: Theorem of Total Probability or Rule of Elimination.

P (A) = P [ (E Ո A ) + (E’ Ո A) ] If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk, constitute a partition of the sample
space S such that P (Bi) = 0 for i = 1, 2, 3,….,k, then for any event A
= P (E Ո A ) + P (E’ Ո A)
of S
= P (E) P (𝐴⁄𝐸 ) + P (E’) P (𝐴⁄ )
𝐸′ P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

B2
B3
B1
A B4
A
Example #52: Given the following information A
A
A

Thirty-six (36) employed and 12 unemployed are members of Rotaract

Club. If one of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour BK Bn
throughout the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new A
A
industries in the town, what is the probability of event A that the
P (A) = P (B1 Ո A) U P (B2 Ո A) U P (B3 Ո A) U …….U P (Bk Ո A)
individual selected is a member of the Rotaract Club?
P (A) = P [ (B1 Ո A) + P (B2 Ո A) + P (B3 Ո A) + …….+ P (Bk Ո A) ]

P (A) = P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

Example #53: Three members of a private country club have been Example #54: Using given information in Example #53, if is known that
nominated for the office of President. The probability that Mr. Adams membership fees have increased, what is the probability that Ms.
will be elected is 0.30, the probability that Mr. Brown will be elected is Cooper was elected as President of the club?
0.50, and the probability that Ms. Cooper will be elected is 0.20. Should
Mr. Adams be elected, the probability for an increase in membership
fees is 0.80, should Mr. Brown or Ms. Cooper be elected, the
corresponding probabilities for an increase in fees are 0.10 and .40.
What is the probability that there will be an increase in membership
fees?

Let: A: membership fees are increased

B1: Mr. Adams is elected

B2: Mr. Brown is elected

B3: Ms. Cooper is elected

THEOREM 16: Bayes’ Rule. If the events B1, B2, B3,…., Bk,
constitute a partition of the sample space S such that P (Bi) = 0 for i =
1, 2, 3,….,k, then for any event A of S such that P (A) = 0

P (Br) P (A/Br)
P (Br / A) =
P (B1) P (A/B1) + P (B2) P (A/B2) + ……. + P (Bk) P (A/Bk)

for r = 1, 2, 3, …….., k.
Assessment Task: 3. Five different mathematics books, 4 different electronic
books, and 2 different communication books are to be placed
in a shelf with the books of the same subject together. Find
A. Sample Space, Events, Venn Diagram and Counting the number of ways in which the books can be placed.
Sample Points 4. In how many ways can the letters of the word
“PROBABILITIES” be arranged if the first place is to be filled

1. S = { x / 0<x≤20 } with a consonant and no consonants are to be adjacent to

A= { x / x are even numbers } each other?
B = { x / x are divisible by 3 } 5. Thirteen poker hands is to be taken from an ordinary deck
of cards. How many ways it can contain two aces, three face
C = { x / x ≤ 13 }
cards, four cards greater than 2 but less than 5,and three
D = { x / 6 < x < 18 }
cards greater than 4 but less than 10?
Find: {[ ( A’ ∩ C’ ) ∩ ( Ø U B’ ) ] ‘ ∩ D}’

B. Basic Probability

2. In a survey of 30 consumers of detergents, 5 people said they 1. One box contains four cards numbered 1, 3, 5, and 6. Another
box contains three cards numbered 2, 4, and 7. One card is
are loyal to brand A, while another 5 are loyal to brand B.
drawn from each box. Find the probability that the sum is even.
Five surveyed said they do not use either brands A, B, nor C, 2. A box contains 5 red balls and 3 yellow balls. If 4 balls, one at a
but use some other detergents not included in the survey. A
time will be drawn at random from the box without
total of ten consumers said they prefer brand A, and a total
of 11 said they prefer brand C. Four said they are using both replacement. What is the probability that the balls alternate in
A and B. There were no one who used both brands B and C. colors?
Further, almost peculiarly, no one said they used A, B, and C
3. An ordinary die is tossed once. If a 1 appears, a ball is drawn
simultaneously. from Urn 1. If a 2, 3 or 4 appears, a ball is drawn from Urn 2;
a. How many person uses brand A or brand B but not otherwise, a ball is drawn from Urn 3. Urn 1 contains 5 white, 3
brand C? green and 2 red balls. Urn 2 contains 1 white, 6 green and 3 red
b. How many person uses both brand A and brand C? balls. Urn 3 contains 3 white, 1 green and 6 red balls. What is
the probability that a red ball is drawn?
4. A box of a dozen mechanical components contains 7 good
components and 5 bad components. Mr. Mechanical Engineer is
 preparing machine design for his four projects. One component C. Conditional Probability
is required per machine. He randomly selects 4 components
from the box.
a. What is the probability that the Mr. Mechanical Engineer
got at most one bad component? 1. The probability that machine A will break down on a particular day is

b. What is the probability that Mr. Mechanical Engineer will P(A) = 1/50; similarly, for machine B, P(B) = 1/100. Assuming
have to get components from the box again? independence, on a particular day, what is the probability that at most
one will break down?

5. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four

different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of 2. A candidate runs for two political offices, A and B. He assigns 0.30
as the probability of being elected to both, 0.6 as the probability of
the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and
being elected to A if he is elected to B and 0.8 as the probability of
30% of the time, and if a person who is speeding on his way to work
being elected to B if he is elected to A. What is the probability of being
has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing
elected to A?
through these locations,

a. what is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket? 3. The probability that a damaged engine recovers from a delicate
overhauling operation is 0.8. What is the probability that exactly 2 of
b. what is the probability that he passed through the radar trap
the next 3 engines who have this overhauling recovers?
located at L2?

c. at L1?
4. Job candidates are screened by means of preliminary interview. The
d. at L1 or L4? probability is 0.7 that a screened candidate will be a good worker.
Screened candidates are given a test. If the candidate is one who will
e. what is the probability that he does not receive a ticket but he prove to be a good worker, the probability of his passing the test is 0.8.
commits a speeding violation as he passed through L3? If the candidate is one who will prove to be a poor worker, the
probability of his passing the test is 0.3. What is the probability that a
screened candidate will be a good worker given he passed the test?
5. The Wash White Company has 3 machines (A, B and C) that produces
the same part. Machine A produces 60% of the total volume and
produces 80% acceptable parts and 20% rejects. Machine B and C
each produce 20% of the total volume. Machine B produces 60%
acceptable parts and 40% rejects. Machine C produces 50%
acceptable parts and 50% rejects. What is the probability that the part
is acceptable when a random sample was inspected?