X11.1 One of the requirements for a time series to be stationary is that it has to have a constant mean.

n. This means that a

it will always return towards the mean. This makes it easy to extrapolate and it is statistically the best predictor of t

X11.2 Moving average as a general "smoothing" time series technique eliminates extreme values for the length of the int
that it has been calculated for. In this case, it is used to eliminate random oscilations. If this value is placed just one
the interval for which it has been calculated, then the moving average becomes a forecast for that time period.

X11.3 If you increase the number of elements in the interval for moving averages, the calculated value eliminates
more extremes. The more elements in the interval, the smotther the overall time series of moving averages will be.

X11.4 Double moving average method is a linear method. It does not, therefore, follow a curve but a straight line.

X11.5 Yes, double moving averages can be used for long-term forecasts, but only providing that the original time
series is linear. Double moving average forecasts will be linear, so the original time series needs to be of the
same type. As the future forecasts will be determined by the length of the interval used for moving averages,
this means that the recent observations will have more impact on future forecasts. Because of that, although DMA
can be in principle used for long-term forecasts, it is recommended to be used only for medium-term forecasts.
 nt mean. This means that altghough the time series might vary around the mean,
tically the best predictor of the stationary time series.

ues for the length of the interval

this value is placed just one observation after
ast for that time period.

ed value eliminates
of moving averages will be.

e but a straight line.

at the original time

es needs to be of the
for moving averages,
ause of that, although DMA
medium-term forecasts.
X11.6 Single exponential smoothing is like simple moving averages, i.e. it just makes the newly created time series
smoother than the original time series by eliminating larger variations. When this smoothed value is put
in the place beyond the last period for which the exponential values are calculated, then it becomes a forecast.

X11.7 Alpha varies between 0 and 1. The closer to zero, the smoother the newly created time series of exponential values
The closer to one, the more dynamic the time series will be and more closely will it resemble the original time serie

X11.8 Damping factor in Excel is =1-alpha.

X11.9 Smoothing constant and moving averages can be claculated from one another. A general rule is that the smaller
smoothing constant (closer to zero) correspond to larger number of observations in the moving average interval.

X11.10 Yes, double exponential smoothing forecasts are linear.

y created time series
thed value is put
n it becomes a forecast.

series of exponential values will be.

mble the original time series.

al rule is that the smaller

moving average interval.
X11.11 You can use it in Excel Sover as an objective function that needs to be minimised.

X11.12 SEE for exponential smoothing is not calculated over the whole range of the time series, but for smaller
intervals that correspond to either a number of moving averages or just 3 running values.

X11.13 Confidence interval for both double moving averages and double exponential smooting is constructed in the same
1. We start with the dynamic value of the standard error of estimate (SEE) for three period interval:

2. Then, we decide on the t-value and calculate: ŷ ± tvalue ´ SEyŷ

3. A the end of the time series, we calculate the overall SEE:

4. The future forecasts are calculated as: ŷ ± tvalue ´ h ´ SEyŷ , where h=1,2,3,…

3.a Another option for the future forecasts is to calculate:

4a. And then apply: ŷ ± tvalue ´ RMSEh , where h=1,2,3,…

X11.14 There is no difference between these two formulae for calculating SEE.

X11.15 See steps 3 and 4 (or 3a and 4a) in X10.13

, but for smaller

is constructed in the same way.

iod interval:
X11.16

Year Q y Year Q y Year Quarter t

2017 Q1 100.0 2019 Q1 141.0 2017 1 1
Q2 160.0 Q2 204.0 2 2
Q3 150.0 Q3 201.0 3 3
Q4 140.0 Q4 179.0 4 4
2018 Q1 122.0 2020 Q1 150.0 2018 1 5
Q2 188.0 Q2 200.0 2 6
Q3 160.0 Q3 220.0 3 7
Q4 159.0 Q4 200.0 4 8
2019 1 9
2 10
3 11
4 12
2020 1 13
2 14
3 15
4 16
2021 1 17
2 18
3 19
4 20

Decom
302.0

252.0

202.0
Value

152.0

102.0

52.0

2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 4.8422 =slope
Y=TCSI TC as MA (uncentred) TC as MA (centred) SI=TCSI/TC Typical S Deseasonalised Y
100.0 0.813832 122.88
160.0 137.50 1.135954 140.85
150.0 143.00 140.25 1.070 1.085629 138.17
140.0 150.00 146.50 0.956 0.964585 145.14
122.0 152.50 151.25 0.807 0.813832 149.91
188.0 157.25 154.88 1.214 1.135954 165.50
160.0 162.00 159.63 1.002 1.085629 147.38
159.0 166.00 164.00 0.970 0.964585 164.84
141.0 176.25 171.13 0.824 0.813832 173.25
204.0 181.25 178.75 1.141 1.135954 179.58
201.0 183.50 182.38 1.102 1.085629 185.15
179.0 182.50 183.00 0.978 0.964585 185.57
150.0 187.25 184.88 0.811 0.813832 184.31
200.0 192.50 189.88 1.053 1.135954 176.06
220.0 206.67 199.58 1.102 1.085629 202.65
200.0 210.00 208.33 0.960 0.964585 207.34

Decomposition Forecast

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Time point

Y=TCSI Ŷ
 125.6281 =intercept
TC for deseasonalized Ŷ Summary SI component table for every year per quarter
130.47 106.18 Year
135.31 153.71 Quarter 2017 2018 2019
140.15 152.16 1 0.807 0.824
145.00 139.86 2 1.214 1.141
149.84 121.94 3 1.070 1.002 1.102
154.68 175.71 4 0.956 0.970 0.978
159.52 173.18
164.37 158.54
169.21 137.71 Remove I component table for every year per quarter
174.05 197.71 Year
178.89 194.21 Quarter 2017 2018 2019
183.73 177.23 1 0.807 0.824
188.58 153.47 2 1.214 1.141
193.42 219.71 3 1.070 1.002 1.102
198.26 215.24 4 0.956 0.970 0.978
203.10 195.91
207.95 169.23
212.79 241.72
217.63 236.26 Typical quarterly index
222.47 214.59 Quarter
1 0.813832201
2 1.135953651
3 1.085629154
4 0.964584994
ery year per quarter

2020
0.811
1.053
1.102
0.960

y year per quarter

Average
2020 per quarter
0.811 0.814
1.053 1.136
1.102 1.086
0.960 0.965
SUM= 4.001
Scaling fact= 0.999823
X11.17

Year Q y Year Q y Year Quarter t

2017 Q1 100.0 2019 Q1 141.0 2017 1 1
Q2 160.0 Q2 204.0 2 2
Q3 150.0 Q3 201.0 3 3
Q4 140.0 Q4 179.0 4 4
2018 Q1 122.0 2020 Q1 150.0 2018 1 5
Q2 188.0 Q2 200.0 2 6
Q3 160.0 Q3 220.0 3 7
Q4 159.0 Q4 200.0 4 8
2019 1 9
2 10
3 11
4 12
2020 1 13
2 14
3 15
4 16
2021 1 17
2 18
3 19
4 20

Decompo
302.0

252.0

202.0
Value

152.0

102.0

52.0

2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Y
 4.8422 =slope
Y=TCSI TC as MA (uncentred) TC as MA (centred) SI=TCSI/TC Typical S Deseasonalised Y
100.0 0.813832 122.88
160.0 137.50 1.135954 140.85
150.0 143.00 140.25 1.070 1.085629 138.17
140.0 150.00 146.50 0.956 0.964585 145.14
122.0 152.50 151.25 0.807 0.813832 149.91
188.0 157.25 154.88 1.214 1.135954 165.50
160.0 162.00 159.63 1.002 1.085629 147.38
159.0 166.00 164.00 0.970 0.964585 164.84
141.0 176.25 171.13 0.824 0.813832 173.25
204.0 181.25 178.75 1.141 1.135954 179.58
201.0 183.50 182.38 1.102 1.085629 185.15
179.0 182.50 183.00 0.978 0.964585 185.57
150.0 187.25 184.88 0.811 0.813832 184.31
200.0 192.50 189.88 1.053 1.135954 176.06
220.0 206.67 199.58 1.102 1.085629 202.65
200.0 210.00 208.33 0.960 0.964585 207.34

Decomposition Forecast

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Time point

Y=TCSI Ŷ
 125.6281 =intercept
TC for deseasonalized Ŷ PI-
130.47 106.18 7.69 RMSE 89.87
135.31 153.71 2.12 t-value 137.40
140.15 152.16 135.84
145.00 139.86 123.55
149.84 121.94 105.63
154.68 175.71 159.40
159.52 173.18 156.87
164.37 158.54 142.23
169.21 137.71 121.40
174.05 197.71 181.40
178.89 194.21 177.90
183.73 177.23 160.92
188.58 153.47 137.16
193.42 219.71 203.40
198.26 215.24 198.93
203.10 195.91 h RMSEh kh 179.60
207.95 169.23 1 7.69 16.31 152.92
212.79 241.72 2 10.88 23.07 218.65
217.63 236.26 3 13.33 28.25 208.01
222.47 214.59 4 15.39 32.62 181.97

Decomposition Forecast and Prediction Interval

302.0

252.0

202.0
Value

152.0

102.0

52.0

2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Time point

Y=TCSI Ŷ PI- PI+

 PI+ Summary SI component table for every year per quarter
122.49 Year
170.02 Quarter 2017 2018 2019 2020
168.47 1 0.807 0.824 0.811
156.17 2 1.214 1.141 1.053
138.25 3 1.070 1.002 1.102 1.102
192.02 4 0.956 0.970 0.978 0.960
189.49
174.86
154.02 Remove I component table for every year per quarter
214.02 Year Average
210.52 Quarter 2017 2018 2019 2020 per quarter
193.54 1 0.807 0.824 0.811 0.814
169.78 2 1.214 1.141 1.053 1.136
236.03 3 1.070 1.002 1.102 1.102 1.086
231.55 4 0.956 0.970 0.978 0.960 0.965
212.22 SUM= 4.001
185.54 Scaling fac 0.999823
264.78
264.52 Typical quarterly index
247.21 Quarter
1 0.8138322011
2 1.135953651
3 1.0856291543
val 4 0.9645849936

16 17 18 19 20

I+
X11.18

Year Quarter t Y ℓt bt Ss Ft et
2017 1 1 100.0 0.727273
2 2 160.0 1.163636
3 3 150.0 1.090909
4 4 140.0 137.50 0.00 1.018182
2018 1 5 122.0 152.63 7.56 0.763309 100.0 22.00
2 6 188.0 160.88 7.91 1.166123 186.4 1.60
3 7 160.0 157.72 2.38 1.052670 184.1 -24.13
4 8 159.0 158.13 1.39 1.011838 163.0 -4.01
2019 1 9 141.0 172.12 7.69 0.791246 121.8 19.23
2 10 204.0 177.38 6.47 1.158108 209.7 -5.69
3 11 201.0 187.40 8.25 1.062631 193.5 7.47
4 12 179.0 186.27 3.56 0.986393 198.0 -18.96
2020 1 13 150.0 189.71 3.50 0.790973 150.2 -0.21
2 14 200.0 182.95 -1.63 1.125656 223.7 -23.75
3 15 220.0 194.18 4.80 1.097812 192.7 27.33
4 16 200.0 200.87 5.74 0.991039 196.3 3.73
2021 1 17 0.893329 163.4
2 18 1.060670 232.6
3 19 1.046749 226.8
4 20 0.993362 204.8
 0.5 =alpha
0.5 =beta Holt-Winters Seasonal expone
0.5 =gamma 250.0
201.675 =MSE
14.20 =RMSE

200.0

150.0

Value
100.0

50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Time point
rs Seasonal exponential model

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time point
X11.19

Year Quarter t Y ℓt bt Ss Ft et
2017 1 1 100.0 0.727273
2 2 160.0 1.163636
3 3 150.0 1.090909
4 4 140.0 137.50 0.00 1.018182
2018 1 5 122.0 147.15 1.97 0.771486 100.0 22.00
2 6 188.0 153.09 2.78 1.191605 173.5 14.48
3 7 160.0 152.93 2.18 1.071502 170.0 -10.04
4 8 159.0 155.44 2.25 1.020222 157.9 1.07
2019 1 9 141.0 165.69 3.88 0.806014 121.7 19.34
2 10 204.0 170.09 3.98 1.194983 202.1 1.94
3 11 201.0 178.38 4.86 1.095515 186.5 14.48
4 12 179.0 180.76 4.35 1.007217 186.9 -7.95
2020 1 13 150.0 185.43 4.42 0.807287 149.2 0.80
2 14 200.0 182.67 2.96 1.151496 226.9 -26.86
3 15 220.0 190.48 3.94 1.121353 203.4 16.64
4 16 200.0 195.74 4.21 1.013526 195.8 4.18
2021 1 17 0.900436 161.4
2 18 1.095138 230.3
3 19 1.078087 224.2
4 20 1.017095 202.7
0.319133 =alpha
0.203691 =beta
Optimised Holt-Winters exponential solution
0.434348 =gamma 250.0
153.940 =MSE
12.41 =RMSE
200.0

150.0
Value

100.0

50.0

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time point
ential solution

12 13 14 15 16
X11.20
Forecasts from X10.19
Year Quarter t Y Ft et 0.3191 =alpha
2017 1 1 100.0 0.2037 =beta
2 2 160.0 0.4343 =gamma
3 3 150.0 205.254 =MSE
4 4 140.0 14.33 =RMSE
2018 1 5 122.0 100.0 22.00 2.12 =t value
2 6 188.0 173.5 14.48
3 7 160.0 170.0 -10.04
4 8 159.0 157.9 1.07
2019 1 9 141.0 121.7 19.34
2 10 204.0 202.1 1.94
3 11 201.0 186.5 14.48
4 12 179.0 186.9 -7.95
2020 1 13 150.0 149.2 0.80
2 14 200.0 226.9 -26.86
3 15 220.0 203.4 16.64
4 16 200.0 195.8 4.18 h RMSEh kh
2021 1 21 161.4 1 14.33 30.371
2 22 230.3 2 20.26 42.951
3 23 224.2 3 24.81 52.604
4 24 202.7 4 28.65 60.742
PI- PI+
Forecast and predicti
300.0

69.63 130.37
143.15 203.89 250.0
139.66 200.41
127.56 188.30
91.28 152.03 200.0
171.69 232.43
156.14 216.89
156.58 217.32
118.83 179.57 Value 150.0
196.49 257.23
172.99 233.73
165.45 226.19 100.0
131.05 191.79
187.30 273.20
171.62 276.83
50.0
141.92 263.40

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1

Time point
 Forecast and prediction intervals

Ft
PI-
PI+
Y

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Time point
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB
1 TU11.1 a) b)
2 1 26.21 11 36.41 21 29.24 Period Series 3SMA 5SMA 7SMA 9SMA 3DMA 5DMA 7DMA 9DMA
3 2 25.72 12 29.14 22 28.75 1 26.21
4 3 27.51 13 28.42 23 28.02 2 25.72
5 4 28.32 14 28.58 24 26.69 3 27.51
6 5 28.42 15 29.05 25 25.08 4 28.32 26.48
7 6 28.28 16 30.25 26 23.39 5 28.42 27.18
8 7 27.1 17 29.42 27 22.65 6 28.28 28.08 27.24
9 8 32.35 18 27.38 28 22.02 7 27.1 28.34 27.65 27.25
Chart Title
10 9 35.33 19 27.68 29 23.39 8 32.35 27.93 27.93 27.37 27.87
11 10 33.35 20 30.22 30 26.35 9 35.33 29.24 28.89 28.24 28.12 40
12 10 33.35 31.59 30.30 29.62 28.80 28.51 35
13 11 36.41 33.68 31.28 30.45 29.60 29.59 28.40 30
14 12 29.14 35.03 32.91 31.61 30.79 31.50 29.21
25
15 13 28.42 32.97 33.32 31.71 30.97 33.43 30.26
16 14 28.58 31.32 32.53 31.73 30.98 33.89 31.34 20

17 15 29.05 28.71 31.18 31.94 31.00 33.11 32.07 30.10 15

18 16 30.25 28.68 30.32 31.47 31.08 31.00 32.24 30.76 10
19 17 29.42 29.29 29.09 30.74 31.43 29.57 32.05 31.22
5
20 18 27.38 29.57 29.14 30.18 31.11 28.90 31.29 31.38
0
21 19 27.68 29.02 28.94 28.89 30.22 29.18 30.45 31.34 30.64 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
22 20 30.22 28.16 28.76 28.68 29.59 29.29 29.73 30.95 30.80
Series 3SMA 5SMA 7SMA 9SMA
23 21 29.24 28.43 28.99 28.94 28.90 28.92 29.25 30.52 30.80
24 22 28.75 29.05 28.79 29.03 28.92 28.53 28.98 30.12 30.59
25 23 28.02 29.40 28.65 28.99 28.95 28.54 28.92 29.71 30.36 Chart Title
26 24 26.69 28.67 28.78 28.67 28.89 28.96 28.82 29.35 30.13 40
27 25 25.08 27.82 28.58 28.28 28.63 29.04 28.79 29.06 29.90 35
28 26 23.39 26.60 27.56 27.95 28.05 28.63 28.76 28.79 29.63
30
29 27 22.65 25.05 26.39 27.34 27.38 27.70 28.47 28.65 29.25
30 28 22.02 23.71 25.17 26.26 26.86 26.49 27.99 28.46 28.84 25
31 29 23.39 22.69 23.97 25.23 26.23 25.12 27.29 28.08 28.46 20
32 30 26.35 22.69 23.31 24.46 25.47 23.82 26.33 27.53 28.09
15
33 23.92 23.56 24.22 25.15 23.03 25.28 26.89 27.71
34 10

35 5
36 0
37 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
38 Series 3DMA 5DMA 7DMA 9DMA
39
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U
1 TU11.2 a) b)
2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 Alpha 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9
3 Period Series SES 0.1 SES 0.3 SES 0.5 SES 0.9 DES 0.1 DES 0.3 DES 0.5 DES 0.9
Chart Title
4 1 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21
5 2 25.72 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 40

6 3 27.51 26.16 26.06 25.97 25.77 26.21 26.21 26.21 26.21 35

7 4 28.32 26.30 26.50 26.74 27.34 26.21 26.17 26.09 25.81 30
8 5 28.42 26.50 27.04 27.53 28.22 26.21 26.27 26.41 27.18
25
9 6 28.28 26.69 27.46 27.97 28.40 26.24 26.50 26.97 28.12
10 7 27.1 26.85 27.70 28.13 28.29 26.29 26.79 27.47 28.37 20

11 8 32.35 26.87 27.52 27.61 27.22 26.34 27.06 27.80 28.30 15

12 9 35.33 27.42 28.97 29.98 31.84 26.40 27.20 27.71 27.33 10
13 10 33.35 28.21 30.88 32.66 34.98 26.50 27.73 28.84 31.39
5
14 11 36.41 28.73 31.62 33.00 33.51 26.67 28.68 30.75 34.62
15 12 29.14 29.49 33.06 34.71 36.12 26.88 29.56 31.88 33.62 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
16 13 28.42 29.46 31.88 31.92 29.84 27.14 30.61 33.29 35.87
Series SES 0.1 SES 0.3 SES 0.5 SES 0.9
17 14 28.58 29.36 30.84 30.17 28.56 27.37 30.99 32.61 30.44
18 15 29.05 29.28 30.16 29.38 28.58 27.57 30.95 31.39 28.75
19 16 30.25 29.26 29.83 29.21 29.00 27.74 30.71 30.38 28.60 Chart Title
20 17 29.42 29.35 29.96 29.73 30.13 27.89 30.45 29.80 28.96
40
21 18 27.38 29.36 29.80 29.58 29.49 28.04 30.30 29.76 30.01
22 19 27.68 29.16 29.07 28.48 27.59 28.17 30.15 29.67 29.54 35

23 20 30.22 29.01 28.65 28.08 27.67 28.27 29.83 29.07 27.79 30

24 21 29.24 29.14 29.12 29.15 29.97 28.34 29.47 28.58 27.68 25
25 22 28.75 29.15 29.16 29.19 29.31 28.42 29.37 28.86 29.74
20
26 23 28.02 29.11 29.04 28.97 28.81 28.50 29.31 29.03 29.35
15
27 24 26.69 29.00 28.73 28.50 28.10 28.56 29.22 29.00 28.86
28 25 25.08 28.77 28.12 27.59 26.83 28.60 29.08 28.75 28.17 10
29 26 23.39 28.40 27.21 26.34 25.26 28.62 28.79 28.17 26.97 5
30 27 22.65 27.90 26.06 24.86 23.58 28.60 28.31 27.25 25.43
0
31 28 22.02 27.37 25.04 23.76 22.74 28.53 27.64 26.06 23.76 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
32 29 23.39 26.84 24.13 22.89 22.09 28.41 26.86 24.91 22.84 Series DES 0.1 DES 0.3 DES 0.5 DES 0.9
33 30 26.35 26.49 23.91 23.14 23.26 28.25 26.04 23.90 22.17
34 26.48 24.64 24.74 26.04 28.08 25.40 23.52 23.15
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R
1 TU11.3 0.3 =alpha
2 Period Series SMA DMA at bt DMA Forec. SES DES at bt DES Forec. DMA Errors DES Errors
3 1 26.21 26.21 26.21 ME = -0.50 -0.97
4 2 25.72 26.21 26.21 26.21 0.00 0.00 MSE = 11.50 12.52
5 3 27.51 26.06 26.21 25.92 -0.06 26.21
6 4 28.32 26.50 26.17 26.83 0.14 25.85 Answer: DMA is better in this case
7 5 28.42 27.24 27.04 26.27 27.82 0.33 26.97
8 6 28.28 27.65 27.46 26.50 28.41 0.41 28.16
9 7 27.1 27.93 27.70 26.79 28.62 0.39 28.83
10 8 32.35 28.89 27.52 27.06 27.98 0.20 29.01
11 9 35.33 30.30 28.40 32.19 0.95 28.97 27.20 30.74 0.76 28.18
12 10 33.35 31.28 29.21 33.35 1.04 33.14 30.88 27.73 34.03 1.35 31.50
13 11 36.41 32.91 30.26 35.55 1.32 34.39 31.62 28.68 34.56 1.26 35.37
14 12 29.14 33.32 31.34 35.29 0.99 36.88 33.06 29.56 36.56 1.50 35.83
15 13 28.42 32.53 32.07 32.99 0.23 36.28 31.88 30.61 33.16 0.55 38.05
16 14 28.58 31.18 32.24 30.12 -0.53 33.23 30.84 30.99 30.70 -0.06 33.70
17 15 29.05 30.32 32.05 28.59 -0.87 29.59 30.16 30.95 29.38 -0.34 30.63
18 16 30.25 29.09 31.29 26.89 -1.10 27.72 29.83 30.71 28.95 -0.38 29.05
19 17 29.42 29.14 30.45 27.84 -0.65 25.79 29.96 30.45 29.46 -0.21 28.57
20 18 27.38 28.94 29.73 28.14 -0.40 27.18 29.80 30.30 29.29 -0.22 29.25
21 19 27.68 28.76 29.25 28.26 -0.25 27.74 29.07 30.15 27.99 -0.46 29.07
22 20 30.22 28.99 28.98 29.00 0.00 28.02 28.65 29.83 27.48 -0.50 27.53
23 21 29.24 28.79 28.92 28.65 -0.07 29.00 29.12 29.47 28.77 -0.15 26.98
24 22 28.75 28.65 28.82 28.48 -0.09 28.59 29.16 29.37 28.95 -0.09 28.62
25 23 28.02 28.78 28.79 28.77 -0.01 28.40 29.04 29.31 28.77 -0.12 28.86
26 24 26.69 28.58 28.76 28.41 -0.09 28.76 28.73 29.22 28.24 -0.21 28.65
27 25 25.08 27.56 28.47 26.64 -0.46 28.32 28.12 29.08 27.16 -0.41 28.03
28 26 23.39 26.39 27.99 24.78 -0.80 26.18 27.21 28.79 25.63 -0.68 26.75
29 27 22.65 25.17 27.29 23.04 -1.06 23.98 26.06 28.31 23.81 -0.97 24.95
30 28 22.02 23.97 26.33 21.60 -1.18 21.97 25.04 27.64 22.44 -1.11 22.84
31 29 23.39 23.31 25.28 21.34 -0.99 20.42 24.13 26.86 21.41 -1.17 21.32
32 30 26.35 23.56 24.48 22.64 -0.46 20.35 23.91 26.04 21.78 -0.91 20.24
33 1 22.18 20.87
34 2 21.73 19.95
35 3 21.27 19.04
36 4 20.81 18.13
37 5 20.35 17.21
38 6 19.89 16.30
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W
1 TU11.4 0.1958628 =alpha Optimized 0.3 =alpha Before
2 Period Series SMA DMA at bt DMA Forec. SES DES at bt DES Forec. DMA Errors DES Errors DMA ErrorsDES Errors
3 1 26.21 26.21 26.21 ME = -0.50 -0.51 ME = -0.50 -0.97
4 2 25.72 26.21 26.21 26.21 0.00 0.00 MSE = 11.50 11.07 MSE = 11.50 12.52
5 3 27.51 26.11 26.21 26.02 -0.02 26.21
6 4 28.32 26.39 26.19 26.58 0.05 25.99 Answer: DES is better after alpha optimization Answer: DMA was better in this case
7 5 28.42 27.24 26.77 26.23 27.30 0.13 26.63
8 6 28.28 27.65 27.09 26.33 27.85 0.18 27.43
9 7 27.1 27.93 27.32 26.48 28.16 0.20 28.03
10 8 32.35 28.89 27.28 26.65 27.91 0.15 28.37
11 9 35.33 30.30 28.40 32.19 0.95 28.27 26.77 29.77 0.37 28.07
12 10 33.35 31.28 29.21 33.35 1.04 33.14 29.65 27.07 32.24 0.63 30.14
13 11 36.41 32.91 30.26 35.55 1.32 34.39 30.38 27.57 33.18 0.68 32.88
14 12 29.14 33.32 31.34 35.29 0.99 36.88 31.56 28.12 35.00 0.84 33.87
15 13 28.42 32.53 32.07 32.99 0.23 36.28 31.09 28.80 33.38 0.56 35.84
16 14 28.58 31.18 32.24 30.12 -0.53 33.23 30.56 29.24 31.88 0.32 33.93
17 15 29.05 30.32 32.05 28.59 -0.87 29.59 30.18 29.50 30.85 0.16 32.21
18 16 30.25 29.09 31.29 26.89 -1.10 27.72 29.95 29.63 30.28 0.08 31.01
19 17 29.42 29.14 30.45 27.84 -0.65 25.79 30.01 29.70 30.33 0.08 30.35
20 18 27.38 28.94 29.73 28.14 -0.40 27.18 29.90 29.76 30.03 0.03 30.41
21 19 27.68 28.76 29.25 28.26 -0.25 27.74 29.40 29.79 29.02 -0.09 30.07
22 20 30.22 28.99 28.98 29.00 0.00 28.02 29.07 29.71 28.42 -0.16 28.93
23 21 29.24 28.79 28.92 28.65 -0.07 29.00 29.29 29.58 29.00 -0.07 28.26
24 22 28.75 28.65 28.82 28.48 -0.09 28.59 29.28 29.53 29.04 -0.06 28.93
25 23 28.02 28.78 28.79 28.77 -0.01 28.40 29.18 29.48 28.88 -0.07 28.98
26 24 26.69 28.58 28.76 28.41 -0.09 28.76 28.95 29.42 28.48 -0.11 28.80
27 25 25.08 27.56 28.47 26.64 -0.46 28.32 28.51 29.33 27.69 -0.20 28.37
28 26 23.39 26.39 27.99 24.78 -0.80 26.18 27.84 29.17 26.51 -0.32 27.49
29 27 22.65 25.17 27.29 23.04 -1.06 23.98 26.97 28.91 25.02 -0.47 26.18
30 28 22.02 23.97 26.33 21.60 -1.18 21.97 26.12 28.53 23.71 -0.59 24.55
31 29 23.39 23.31 25.28 21.34 -0.99 20.42 25.32 28.06 22.58 -0.67 23.13
32 30 26.35 23.56 24.48 22.64 -0.46 20.35 24.94 27.52 22.36 -0.63 21.91
33 1 22.18 21.73
34 2 21.73 21.10
35 3 21.27 20.48
36 4 20.81 19.85
37 5 20.35 19.22
38 6 19.89 18.59
 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y
1 TU11.5 0.1958628 =alpha
2 Period Series SES DES at bt DES Forec. SEt PI- PI+
3 1 26.21 26.21 26.21 0.05 =Level of significance (alpha)
4 2 25.72 26.21 26.21 26.21 0.00 0.00 28 =degrees of freedom
5 3 27.51 26.11 26.21 26.02 -0.02 26.21 2.048 =t-value
6 4 28.32 26.39 26.19 26.58 0.05 25.99 1.606 =RMSEh
7 5 28.42 26.77 26.23 27.30 0.13 26.63 1.85 22.84 30.43
8 6 28.28 27.09 26.33 27.85 0.18 27.43 1.76 23.82 31.04
9 7 27.1 27.32 26.48 28.16 0.20 28.03 1.26 25.44 30.61 DES Forecasts and Prediction interval
10 8 32.35 27.28 26.65 27.91 0.15 28.37 2.41 23.43 33.31 50
11 9 35.33 28.27 26.77 29.77 0.37 28.07 4.81 18.21 37.92 45
12 10 33.35 29.65 27.07 32.24 0.63 30.14 5.13 19.63 40.65 40
13 11 36.41 30.38 27.57 33.18 0.68 32.88 5.02 22.59 43.16 35
14 12 29.14 31.56 28.12 35.00 0.84 33.87 3.88 25.92 41.82 30
15 13 28.42 31.09 28.80 33.38 0.56 35.84 5.47 24.63 47.04 25
16 14 28.58 30.56 29.24 31.88 0.32 33.93 5.94 21.76 46.11 20
15
17 15 29.05 30.18 29.50 30.85 0.16 32.21 5.59 20.76 43.65
10
18 16 30.25 29.95 29.63 30.28 0.08 31.01 3.61 23.61 38.42
5
19 17 29.42 30.01 29.70 30.33 0.08 30.35 1.95 26.36 34.35
0
20 18 27.38 29.90 29.76 30.03 0.03 30.41 1.88 26.55 34.26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
21 19 27.68 29.40 29.79 29.02 -0.09 30.07 2.29 25.38 34.76
Series DES Forec. PI- PI+
22 20 30.22 29.07 29.71 28.42 -0.16 28.93 2.35 24.12 33.74
23 21 29.24 29.29 29.58 29.00 -0.07 28.26 1.67 24.85 31.68
24 22 28.75 29.28 29.53 29.04 -0.06 28.93 0.94 27.00 30.85
25 23 28.02 29.18 29.48 28.88 -0.07 28.98 0.80 27.35 30.61
26 24 26.69 28.95 29.42 28.48 -0.11 28.80 1.34 26.05 31.55
27 25 25.08 28.51 29.33 27.69 -0.20 28.37 2.32 23.61 33.13
28 26 23.39 27.84 29.17 26.51 -0.32 27.49 3.27 20.79 34.19
29 27 22.65 26.97 28.91 25.02 -0.47 26.18 3.65 18.69 33.67
30 28 22.02 26.12 28.53 23.71 -0.59 24.55 3.45 17.49 31.62
31 29 23.39 25.32 28.06 22.58 -0.67 23.13 2.51 17.98 28.28
32 30 26.35 24.94 27.52 22.36 -0.63 21.91 2.95 h RMSEh kh 15.86 27.96
33 1 21.73 1 1.61 3.29 14.99 28.47
34 2 21.10 2 2.27 4.65 11.57 30.63
35 3 20.48 3 2.78 5.70 8.80 32.15
36 4 19.85 4 3.21 6.58 6.37 33.33
37 5 19.22 5 3.59 7.36 4.15 34.29
38 6 18.59 6 3.93 8.06 2.08 35.10
TU11.6

Year t Birth Rate Linear Parabola Power Plynomial 3rd 5MA

1960 1 17.5 16.5 18.4 21.0 19.5
1961 2 17.9 16.4 18.1 19.1 19.0 #N/A
1962 3 18.3 16.3 17.8 18.0 18.5 #N/A
1963 4 18.5 16.2 17.5 17.3 18.0 #N/A
1964 5 18.8 16.1 17.2 16.7 17.6 #N/A
1965 6 18.3 16.0 17.0 16.3 17.1 18.2
1966 7 17.9 15.9 16.7 16.0 16.8 18.4
1967 8 17.5 15.8 16.5 15.7 16.4 18.4
1968 9 17.2 15.7 16.2 15.4 16.0 18.2
1969 10 16.6 15.6 16.0 15.2 15.7 17.9
1970 11 16.2 15.5 15.8 15.0 15.4 17.5
1971 12 16.1 15.4 15.5 14.8 15.2 17.1
1972 13 14.9 15.3 15.3 14.6 14.9 16.7
1973 14 13.9 15.2 15.1 14.5 14.7 16.2
1974 15 13.1 15.1 14.9 14.3 14.4 15.5
1975 16 12.4 15.0 14.7 14.2 14.3 14.8
1976 17 12 14.9 14.5 14.1 14.1 14.1
1977 18 11.7 14.8 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.3
1978 19 12.2 14.7 14.2 13.9 13.8 12.6
1979 20 13.1 14.6 14.0 13.8 13.7 12.3
1980 21 13.4 14.5 13.8 13.7 13.5 12.3
1981 22 13 14.4 13.7 13.6 13.5 12.5
1982 23 12.8 14.3 13.5 13.5 13.4 12.7
1983 24 12.8 14.2 13.4 13.4 13.3 12.9
1984 25 12.9 14.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.0
1985 26 13.3 14.0 13.1 13.3 13.2 13.0
1986 27 13.3 13.9 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0
1987 28 13.7 13.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.0
1988 29 13.8 13.7 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.2
1989 30 13.6 13.6 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.4
1990 31 13.9 13.5 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5
1991 32 13.8 13.4 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7
1992 33 13.6 13.3 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8
1993 34 13.2 13.2 12.3 12.8 13.4 13.7
1994 35 13 13.1 12.2 12.7 13.4 13.6
1995 36 12.6 13.0 12.2 12.7 13.5 13.5
1996 37 12.6 12.9 12.1 12.6 13.6 13.2
1997 38 12.5 12.8 12.0 12.6 13.7 13.0
1998 39 12.3 12.7 12.0 12.5 13.7 12.8
1999 40 11.9 12.6 12.0 12.5 13.8 12.6
2000 41 11.5 12.5 11.9 12.4 13.9 12.4
2001 42 11.3 12.5 11.9 12.4 14.0 12.2
2002 43 11.3 12.4 11.9 12.3 14.1 11.9
2003 44 11.7 12.3 11.9 12.3 14.2 11.7
2004 45 11.9 12.2 11.9 12.3 14.3 11.5
2005 46 12 12.1 11.9 12.2 14.4 11.5
2006 47 12.3 12.0 11.9 12.2 14.6 11.6
2007 48 12.6 11.9 11.9 12.1 14.7 11.8
2008 49 12.9 11.8 11.9 12.1 14.8 12.1
2009 50 12.7 11.7 11.9 12.1 14.9 12.3
2010 51 12.9 11.6 12.0 12.0 15.0 12.5
2011 52 12.8 11.5 12.0 12.0 15.1 12.7
2012 53 12.8 11.4 12.1 12.0 15.2 12.8
2013 54 12.1 11.3 12.1 11.9 15.3 12.8
2014 55 12 11.2 12.2 11.9 15.4 12.7
2015 56 11.9 11.1 12.2 11.9 15.5 12.5
2016 57 11.8 11.0 12.3 11.9 15.6 12.3
2017 58 11.4 10.9 12.4 11.8 15.6 12.1
2018 59 11 10.8 12.5 11.8 15.7 11.8
2019 59 10.8 12.5 11.8 15.7 11.6
SES al=0.3 SES SEE Linear Errors Parab Errors Power Errors Poly Errors 5MA Errors
#N/A #N/A 1.0 -0.9 -3.5 -2.0
17.5 #N/A 1.5 -0.2 -1.2 -1.1
17.6 #N/A 2.0 0.5 0.3 -0.2
17.8 #N/A 2.3 1.0 1.2 0.5
18.0 0.6 2.7 1.6 2.1 1.2
18.3 0.7 2.3 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.1
18.3 0.6 2.0 1.2 1.9 1.1 -0.5
18.2 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.8 1.1 -0.9
18.0 0.4 1.5 1.0 1.8 1.2 -1.0
17.7 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.4 0.9 -1.3
17.4 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.2 0.8 -1.3
17.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.9 -1.0
16.8 1.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.0 -1.8
16.2 1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -0.6 -0.8 -2.3
15.5 1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -1.2 -1.3 -2.4
14.8 2.2 -2.6 -2.3 -1.8 -1.9 -2.4
14.1 2.4 -2.9 -2.5 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1
13.4 2.3 -3.1 -2.6 -2.3 -2.2 -1.6
12.9 2.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.7 -1.6 -0.4
12.7 1.6 -1.5 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.8
12.8 1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 1.1
13.0 0.6 -1.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.5
13.0 0.4 -1.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 0.1
12.9 0.4 -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1
12.9 0.1 -1.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1
12.9 0.1 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3
13.0 0.2 -0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
13.1 0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7
13.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6
13.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2
13.5 0.5 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.4
13.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1
13.7 0.3 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 -0.2
13.6 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 -0.2 -0.5
13.5 0.3 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.4 -0.6
13.4 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.9 -0.9
13.1 0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.6
13.0 0.6 -0.3 0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -0.5
12.8 0.6 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.4 -0.5
12.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -1.9 -0.7
12.4 0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.9 -2.4 -0.9
12.2 0.8 -1.2 -0.6 -1.1 -2.7 -0.9
11.9 0.9 -1.1 -0.6 -1.0 -2.8 -0.6
11.7 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -2.5 0.0
11.7 0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -2.4 0.4
11.8 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -2.4 0.5
11.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -2.3 0.7
12.0 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 -2.1 0.8
12.2 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.8 -1.9 0.8
12.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 -2.2 0.4
12.5 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 -2.1 0.4
12.6 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.8 -2.3 0.1
12.7 0.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 -2.4 0.0
12.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.2 -3.2 -0.7
12.5 0.4 0.8 -0.2 0.1 -3.4 -0.7
12.4 0.5 0.8 -0.3 0.0 -3.6 -0.6
12.2 0.5 0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -3.8 -0.5
12.1 0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.4 -4.2 -0.7
11.9 0.5 0.2 -1.5 -0.8 -4.7 -0.8
11.6 0.7
SES Errors Linear Parab. Power Plynom. 5MA SES al=0.3 PI-
ME = 0.00 0.04 0.03 -1.09 -0.39 -0.34
0.4 MAD = 1.07 0.82 0.84 1.49 0.73 0.66
0.7 MSE = 1.75 1.00 1.20 3.47 0.87 0.77
0.7 RMS = 1.32 1.00 1.09 1.86 0.94 0.88
0.8 MPE = -0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.09 -0.03 -0.03 16.8
0.0 MAPE = 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.12 0.06 0.05 16.8
-0.4 R-square = 0.621 0.783 0.742 0.504 0.813 0.859 17.1
-0.7 0.05 =Level of significance (alpha) 17.2
-0.8 56.0 =degrees of freedom SES is 17.1
-1.1 2.003 =t-value the best! 16.5
-1.2 15.6
-0.9 14.9
-1.9 Birth Rate Forecast and Prediction Interval - SES 14.6
-2.3 alpha=0.3 13.4
-2.4 21 11.9
-2.4 19 10.4
-2.1 17 9.3
-1.7 15 8.9
-0.7 13 8.7
0.4 11 9.5
0.6 9 10.6
0.0 7 11.8
-0.2 5 12.2
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.1 12.2
0.0 Birth Rate SES al=0.3 12.6
0.4 PI- PI+ 12.6
0.3 12.5
0.6 12.5
0.5 12.4
0.2 12.5
0.4 12.6
0.2 12.8
-0.1 13.1
-0.4 13.1
-0.5 12.9
-0.8 12.6
-0.5 12.0
-0.5 11.7
-0.5 11.6
-0.8 11.6
-0.9 11.2
-0.9 10.6
-0.6 10.2
0.0 10.1
0.2 10.5
0.2 11.0
0.5 11.5
0.6 11.3
0.7 11.2
0.3 11.1
0.4 11.3
0.2 11.6
0.1 12.0
-0.6 12.1
-0.5 11.8
-0.5 11.4
-0.4 11.2
-0.7 11.1
-0.9 10.8
10.2
 Birth Rate - Linear Trend
PI+
20
18
16 f(x) = − 0.0994915254237288 x + 16.628813559322
14 R² = 0.621462839728839

19.2 12
19.7 10
19.5 8
19.2 6 Birth Rate - Parabola Trend
18.8 4 20
19.0
2 18
19.1 f(x) = 0.0033352932781792 x² − 0.299609122114481 x + 18.6633424590113
0 16 R² = 0.783354498897435
19.1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
14
18.9
19.0 12

19.1 10
19.2 8 Birth Rate - Power Trend
18.8 20 6
f(x) = 21.0483007616682 x^-0.142207891890232
18.0 18 4
R² = 0.748800717843742
17.1 16 2
16.0
14 0
15.1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
12
14.2
10
13.8
8
13.6
13.2 6
Birth Rate - Polynomial 3rd Degree
13.2 4
20
13.5 2
18 f(x) = − 0.000120945503724 x³ + 0.01422038861337 x² − 0.563052618326843 x
13.7 0 + 20.0355901442677
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 1622 R²
25 = 0.830869425546304
28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
14.2
14.4 14
14.4 12
14.4 10
14.2 8
14.2 6
14.1 Birth Rate - Moving Averages
4
14.1
20 2
14.3
18 0
14.2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
16
14.0
13.7 14

13.7 12
13.7 10
8
6
4
2
 16
14
12
10
13.6 8
13.3 6
12.9 4
12.5 2
12.2
0
12.6 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
13.1
13.6
13.7
13.7
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.3
13.0
13.0
13.0
4590113

46 49 52 55 58

Degree

563052618326843 x

0 43 46 49 52 55 58