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MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER CHANGE USING REMOTE

SENSING AND GIS OF KANHA TIGER RESERVE, CENTRAL INDIA
Article · November 2018

DOI: 10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-5-211-2018
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The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XLII-5, 2018
ISPRS TC V Mid-term Symposium “Geospatial Technology – Pixel to People”, 20–23 November 2018, Dehradun, India
MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER CHANGE USING REMOTE

SENSING AND GIS OF KANHA TIGER RESERVE, CENTRAL INDIA
R. M. Devi1*, B. Sinha2, J. Bisaria1 and S. Saran3

1 Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal,
India - [email protected], [email protected]
2 Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal, India and Nalanda University, Rajgir, Bihar - [email protected]
3 Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India - [email protected]
Commission V, SS: Natural Resources Management
KEYWORDS: Forest, LULC, Livelihood, Climate Change, Adaptation
ABSTRACT:
Forest ecosystems play a key role in global ecological balance and provide a variety of tangible and intangible ecosystem services that
support the livelihoods of rural poor. In addition to the anthropogenic pressure on the forest resources, climate change is also impacting
vegetation productivity, biomass and phenological patterns of the forest. There are many studies reported all over the world which use
change in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) to assess the impact of climate change on the forest. Land use change (LC) refers to any
anthropogenic or natural changes in the terrestrial ecosystem at a variety of spatial or temporal scale. Changes in LULC induced by any
causes (natural/anthropogenic) play a major role in global as well as regional scale pattern which in turn affects weather and climate.
Remote sensing (RS) data along with Geographic Information System (GIS) help in inventorying, mapping and monitoring of earth
resources for effective and sustainable landscape management of forest areas. Accurate information about the current and past LULC
including natural forest cover along with accurate means of monitoring the changes are very necessary to design future adaptation strategies
and formulation of policies in tune of climate change. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the changes of LULC of Kanha Tiger
Reserve (KTR) due to climate change. The rationale for selecting KTR is to have a largely intact forest area without any interference so
that any change in LULC could be attributed to the impact of climate change. The change analysis depicted changes in land use land cover
(LULC) pattern by using multi-temporal satellite data over a period of time. Further, these detected changes in different LULC class
influence the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. As the study site is a Sal dominated landscape; the findings could be applied in
other Sal dominated landscape of central India in making future policies, adaptation strategies and silvicultural practices for reducing the
vulnerability of forest-dependent communities.
1. INTRODUCTION current trend of global warming by sequestering CO2 from the

atmosphere and play a major role in the present and projected
1.1. Climate Change and Impact on Forest future carbon budget. Thus, forests are important both for
climate change mitigation as well as adaptation point of view.
Climate change is one of the most critical challenges confronting However, the impact of climate change on forests has been
the mankind today by inducing additional stress on Earth's recorded in terms of longer growing seasons, distribution of
climate system. The severity, frequency and uncertainty related species, biomass and NPP, soil carbon stock, impact on forest
plantations, increase in insect and pest attacks and increased
to climate change have increased, which is evident in the form
of rising temperature, changing rainfall pattern, shift in seasons frequency of forest fires (Kirschbaum et al., 1996; Chaturvedi et
and rise in sea levels. This, in turn, has impacted various natural al., 2011, Savita et al., 2017). These changes have negative
resources, like agriculture, water and forest at different spatial impacts on the direct and indirect function of forest ecosystems,
influencing the ecosystem services, which in turn will affect the
and temporal scales all over the world (IPCC, 2007; INCCA,
2014). Furthermore, in particular, poor countries like India are livelihood of forest-dependent communities (FAO, 2005).The
more vulnerable because of their high dependency on ecosystem projected impacts for forests in India indicate that 40% to 70%
goods and services and their limited capacity to adapt to a of the forested grids in different states including central India are
changing climate (Stern Review 2006). likely to experience change under a changing climate, resulting
The technical and financial limitations of the developing in forest die back and loss of biodiversity, which is irreversible
countries make adaptation even more difficult and challenging (Gopalakrishnan et al., 2011). A large population of tribal
especially for poor communities (IPCC, 2014). Among all the communities resides in the central Indian state of Madhya
sectors, forests are considered as the most valuable natural Pradesh, which is highly dependent on natural resources and
therefore, likely to be more affected by deteriorating
resources, as it plays a key role in global ecological balance.
Forest ecosystems provide a variety of tangible and intangible environmental conditions and factors limiting resource
ecosystem services that support the livelihoods of rural poor. availability, making it difficult for them to cope with the
Furthermore, forests have the potential of slowing down the changing climate. Under such a situation, it is timely to assess
the vulnerability of the forest ecosystems to climate change,
*
Corresponding author
This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

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o
which have a large economic dependence for timber, fuelwood, with temperature ranging from -2 C (winter) to 45°C (summer).
fodder, medicines and NTFPs. Thus, in this context, the study Average annual rainfall is around 1300mm with maximum
attempts to analyze the changes of LULC of Kanha Tiger precipitation in monsoon. The forest area is dominated by teak
Reserve (KTR) due to climate change with the help of geospatial (Tectonagrandis) and sal (Shorea robusta), mixed with other
tools. The rationale for selecting KTR is to have a large intact species like haldu (Adina cardifolla) and aonla (Emblica
forest area without any interference so that any change in LULC Officinalis). Some of the important NTFPs are tendu leaves
could be attributed to the impact of climate change. The change (Diospyros melonoxylon), mahua flowers (Madhuca indica) and
detection identified alterations in land use land cover (LULC) harra (Terminalia chebula).
patterns by using multi-temporal satellite data over a period of
time. Further, vulnerability of forest dependent community is
assessed based on these changes identified using both LULC and
primary data collected in selected forest fringe villages. The
dominant population of these villages mostly belong to
Primitive Tribal Groups (PTGs) Gond and Baiga communities
who are dependent on forest’s natural resources for their
livelihoods. The outcomes of this analysis will lead to framing
of programs, adaptation strategies and policies related to
reducing livelihood vulnerability of forest-dependent
communities.
1.2. Climate Change Vulnerability

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, impacts of climate change, including
climate variability and extremes (Fussel, 2007). The Fig. 1 Map of Kanha Tiger Reserve showing different ranges
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), define it as and forest villages
an integrated measure of the expected magnitude of adverse
effects to a system caused by a given level of certain external The district is home to the Primitive Tribal Groups (PTGs) Gond
stressors. Further, vulnerability depends not only on a system's and Baiga communities. As forest fringe villages are more
sensitivity but also, on its ability to adapt to new climatic vulnerable due to remoteness, lack of access to
conditions (Watson, et al., 1996). The term ‘vulnerability’ has modern/commercial energy, poor infrastructure, higher
been used by various research communities in many different dependency on natural resources and poor socio-economic
ways, such as those focused on securing livelihoods, food condition. The communities of the forest fringe area have not been
security, natural hazards, disaster risk management, public integrated with the mainstream of development, and the impact of
health, global environmental change, and climate change climate change makes these communities further vulnerable.
(Chitale et al., 2014). As per IPCC’s definition, vulnerability
includes an external dimension, which is represented here by the
2.2. Methodology and Sampling Strategy
‘exposure’ of a system to climate variations, as well as an
internal dimension, which comprises its ‘sensitivity’ and its The present paper is based on the use of advanced geospatial
‘adaptive capacity’ to these stressors. Exposure, sensitivity, and techniques for understanding the response of vegetation to change
adaptive capacity are inherently linked, and therefore, can be in climate at KTR. Analysis of remote sensing data was done by
hard to decipher (Gallopin, 2006). Exposure is considered the using ArcGIS and ERDAS software. Satellite images of different
potential impacts of climate variability and change; sensitivity is time period Landsat-5 (1989) and Landsat-8 (2017) of December
the degree to which the rural communities are affected by the month (post-monsoon) at spatial resolution of 30m was acquired
exposure; and adaptive capacity is the system’s ability to adapt, from USGS server. The images were processed, compared and
withstand or recover from the effects of exposure (Fussel and interpreted. Change detection was done by supervised
Klein, 2006). Vulnerability encompasses a variety of elements classification, using maximum likelihood classification in ArcGIS
including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of 10.3 for calculating the change in forest cover in the buffer zones
capacity to cope and adapt” (IPCC, 2014). of KTR. Standard classification by FSI was used for detecting the
change in forest cover types i. e. very dense forest with tree cover
2. METHODOLOGY density of 70% and above, moderate dense forest (40% and more
2.1. Study area but less than 70%), open forest (10% and more but less than 40%),
non-forest are lands not included in any of the class. Further, for
Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR) is situated in Mandla district of attribution of LULC to climate change, climate data analysis for
Madhya Pradesh in central India. This part of Madhya Pradesh a common period from 1971-2015 was analyzed. 45 years (1971-
is characterized by high forest cover, a tribal-dominated 2015) is considered adequate enough to observe changes and to
population, and large-scale poverty. The coordinates of the KTR establish long-term impacts of climate change. Gridded datasets
is 22o 02’ 52.6” N to 22o 25’ 48.8” N latitude and 80o 30’ 09.3” of IMD at highest resolution 0.25ºX0.25º (Pai et al., 2014) for
E to 81o 02’ 48.4” E longitude (Fig.1). KTR is divided into buffer precipitation and 1°X1° (Rajeevan et al., 2008) for temperature
and core area with six ranges in each zone. There are total 35 were analyzed and computed at month, season and annual level
forest villages and 126 revenue villages in the buffer zone of and was further, analyzed for trend using parametric and non-
KTR.The climate of the district is the tropical monsoonal type parametric test statistics. Non-parametric tests include Mann–

Kendall (MK) (Mann, 1945; Kendall, 1975) test, which is used to 3.1. Land Use Land Cover Change Classification
confirm the presence of certain suspected trends and then assess (LULC)
the quantum of detected trends if any, was performed in R studio.
The next objective was to assess the vulnerability of forest Changes detected in forest cover for the buffer zone is
villages to climate change in KTR in order to understand how the represented in Fig. 2(a, b). Forest cover types are classified by
local communities of forest villages are affected, their perception FSI classification i. e. very dense forest with tree cover density
and response to climate change and to identify their specific needs of 70% and above, moderate dense forest (40% and more but less
for adaptations. The findings from this research will serve as the than 70%), open forest (10% and more but less than 40%), non-
basis for further analysis to build adaptive capacity in the study forest are lands not included in any of the class and water body.
sites and in similar areas. Using participatory action research, LULC classification of different forest cover types and pie chart
local community members discussed together climate depicting the percentage of change in forest cover types during
perturbations they face and exchange on the particularities of past 1989 and 2017 is represented in Figure 2(a-d).There is a
and recent climate-related events. Primary empirical data were significant decrease in very dense forest from 397315 ha in 1989
collected using household questionnaires. Also, focus group to 221053 ha (15.59% reduction) during 2017. This may be due
discussions (FGDs) were conducted with villagers to determine to many factors like human settlement nearby the buffer areas,
recent impacts of heavy and low rainfall on agriculture, livestock tourism activities and influenced by other human activities etc.
and overall livelihoods in the region. FGDs were conducted in Further, an increase in the moderate and open forest was
different groups based on gender, social background, and primary recorded during 2017 at the cost of dense forest (Fig 2 a-d).
occupation. The study employs a PRA technique known as “time Water bodies too showed a decline from the past. Increase in
trend,” in which respondents provide an account of their past and temperature and decrease in precipitation, rainfall days, change
discuss how matters close to them have changed over a period of in seasonal patterns over a long period of time might be the cause
time. This includes perception of climate change on important of decline in the water bodies, thus affecting the water resources.
measures like collection of NTFPs, rainfall trends, temperature The non-forest area has also been reduced slightly recording a
trends, agricultural productivity, availability of water, forest fires, decrease of 0.34% which was 20829 ha in 1989 and recorded a
regeneration status, phenology, forest cover, coping strategies, change to16968 ha during 2017. This could be attributed to
awareness and technology support etc. Broadly, important plantation activities carried by Forest department in buffer zone.
indicators based on vulnerability exposure, sensitivity, adaptive In addition, to understand the changes caused by climate change;
capacity and coping strategy were identified. A total of 22 past climate data of 45 years is analyzed in the next section.
relevant indicators were identified and were used to assess
vulnerability. The different indicators have different units and (a )
scales. Therefore, normalization of indicators for scales and units
was done by using the methodology similar to the computation of
Human Development Index (HDI) based on their functional
relationship (positive and negative) between the indicators and
vulnerability. Further, the vulnerability index scores of all the17
selected villages were averaged and Vulnerability index (VI) was
calculated for each range in KTR.
2.3. Multi-stage Sampling Strategy:
Firstly the clusters of forest ranges were identified. The buffer

zone have six ranges with 35 Forest villages. Out of which,
representation of each buffer zone was ensured, and more than
50% of villages were selected to get the maximum representation
of forest-dependent population. In the next stage of sampling, a
simple random sampling strategy was applied, and about 185 (b)
households were interviewed, which is approximately 10% of
the total population of the selected villages (Fig.1). In the
preliminary survey, some revenue villages (RV) were also
surveyed, and it was observed that, most of the population in
revenue village is largely dependent on agriculture, national
park-related tourisms and allied sectors and are relatively better
off socio-economically than forest villages.
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
This section is organized under three heads. The first part

consists of LULC of the buffer zone to detect the major changes
in forest cover types followed by past climate data analysis.
Further, vulnerability analysis of forest fringe village of KTR is
presented.

(c) and 0.368 °C per decade. The most significant rise in

temperature was observed in summer season during 2010
(32ºC).
(a)
(d) (b)
(c )
Fig.2 Change in vegetation cover types between (a)1989 and

(b) 2017 in the buffer. Percentage of change in different forest
cover types during (c)1989 and (d) 2017
3.2. Analysis of Past Climatic Variables
Rainfall and temperature are the major climatic variables that

indicate climate change in any area. For this study, IMD’s
rainfall datasets available at 0.25x0.25 resolution is analyzed on
a temporal scale of 45 years (1971-2015). Monthly, seasonal, (d)
annual and decadal trends were studied to quantify change at a
regional scale. The average annual precipitation has declined in
the last 45 years (Fig.3a). Rainfall data was then averaged by
seasons. i.e., summer or pre-monsoon i.e. March-May (MAM);
monsoon, i.e. June-September (JJAS); post-monsoon, i.e.
October-November; Winter, i.e. December-February (DJF). The
analysis depicts a significant decline in seasonal precipitation
especially in the monsoon and winter months (Fig. 3b).
Furthermore, there is a decadal drop of 6.8 mm in rainfall in the
study area (R2= 0.02) over the period of 45 years (Fig. 3c) along
with a significant decline in number of rainy days especially in
the last decade (Fig. 3d).
Change (increase or decrease) in temperature over at least three
decades in any area is a direct indicator of climate change in the Fig 3. Precipitation trends from 1971-2015 (a) Annual
region. IMD’s temperature datasets at resolutions 1ºx1º for a precipitation (b) Seasonal precipitation (c ) Decadal
common time period of 45 years (1971-2015) were analyzed to trend (d) Precipitation days
understand monthly, seasonal, annual and decadal trends of
mean, maximum and minimum temperature in the study area.
[Fig 4 (a-i)]. The linear trend showed an increase in the mean
annual temperature (Fig. 4a-4c) at the rate of 0.036°C per annum

Annual Seasonal Decadal

(a) (b) (c )
MeanT
(d) (e) (f)
MaxT
(g) (h) (i)
MinT
Fig 4. Mean, seasonal and decadal temperature trends from 1971-2015 for MeanT (a-c), MaxT (d-f) and MinT (g-i) respectively
Similarly, in case of MaxT, 0.16°C per annum and 0.79 °C per

decade is the increase in MaxT respectively over the 45 years The entire available data series of precipitation and temperature
(Fig.4 d and f). The increase in maximum temperature was also for the period 1971–2015 was analyzed for trend detection at
observed during summer month with highest maximum monthly, annual and seasonal scale using MK test statistic. On
temperature (40.18ºC) during 2010 followed by monsoon analysis of precipitation data series, a negative declining trend
temperature (33 ºC) (Fig. 4e). The annual and decadal increase of precipitation was observed annually and seasonally over the
of minimum temperature was comparatively less as compared to period of 45 years. On monthly analysis, April (Z=0.12) and July
maximum temperature at the rate of 0.0002°C per annum and (Z=2.23) months showed a significant positive increase in
0.008 °C per decade [Fig. 4 (g and i)]. Seasonal increase in magnitude, while significant negative magnitude was observed
minimum temperature was observed during post-monsoon and during August (Z=-2.21) month. In case of temperature data sets,
winter months (Fig. 4h). To further confirm the trend in time a positive significant increase in temperature was observed for
series of climate variables, non-parametric test statistic called mean and maximum temperature in the stud area. November
Mann- Kendall was applied. This test is used to detects the month showed a significant increase in the trend of the mean
presence of trends in the time series. The null hypothesis (Z=1.79) and maximum (Z=2.22) temperatures. Further, a
underlying the test is: “there is no significant trend within the significant increase in temperature trend of December month
data series". When the null hypothesis is rejected, it is an was observed for maximum temperature data series. In the case
indication of a significant trend in the data series, which may be of minimum temperature, a significant decrease in temperature
either positive or negative, as described by its Z and Q score. A (Z= -1.70) was observed during monsoon month. Thus, from all
positive value of the test statistic indicates an increasing trend, the parametric and non-parametric test revealed an overall
and a negative value indicates a decreasing trend. The sen's decrease in precipitation trend and increase in temperature trend
method assumes a linear trend in the time series and has been over the 45 years which could be attributed to climate change
widely used for determining the magnitude of a trend in time and affecting the vegetation growth.
series (Partal and Kahya, 2006). Table 1 depicts the results of
MK test (Z) and Sen’s estimate (Q).

Table 1. Results of statistical test (MK-test and Sen’s estimate) for seasonal and annual precipitation over the period 1971-2015 in KTR
Precipitation Mean temperature Maximum temperature Minimum
temperature
Z Q Z Q Z Q Z Q
January -0.13 0 -0.67 -0.00 0.09 0.003 0.34 0.005
February -0.75 -0.07 1.26 0.01 0.82 0.019 0.85 0.011
March 0.76 0.07 0.21 0.00 0.03 0.002 0.65 0.007
April 1.66 0.12+ -0.99 -0.01 -0.14 -0.003 -0.40 -0.006
May -0.24 -0.02 0.09 0.00 0.23 0.005 -0.31 -0.006
June 0.36 0.36 -0.26 -0.00 0.00 -0.002 -1.45 -0.027
July 1.65 2.23+ 0.34 0.00 1.39 0.023 -0.28 -0.004
August -2.37 -2.21* 1.36 0.00 0.99 0.015 -0.85 -0.008
September 0.18 0.13 1.54 0.010 0.54 0.009 -0.85 -0.008
October -0.47 -0.27 -0.13 -0.00 0.31 0.006 -0.65 -0.012
November -0.65 0.00 1.79+ 0.02 2.22* 0.041 0.34 0.010
December 0.55 0.00 1.38 0.01 1.96+ 0.032 -0.77 -0.016
ANNUAL -0.04 -0.25 0.66 0.00 1.28 0.010 -0.82 -0.007
MAM 0.90 0.22 -0.32 -0.00 0.11 0.002 -0.14 -0.002
JJAS 0.14 0.32 0.38 0.00 0.65 0.007 -1.70+ -0.013
ON -0.79 -0.55 1.52 0.01 1.08 0.020 0.03 0.000
DJF -0.34 -0.12 0.95 0.00 1.16 0.016 -0.26 -0.003
Z=Mann-Kendall test, Q= Sen's slope estimator; "***" Statistically significant trends at 99.99% significance level; "**" Statistically significant trends at 99% significance level;
"*" Statistically significant trends at 95% significance level; "+" Statistically significant trends at 90% significance level
3.3. Vulnerability assessment
The study attempted to develop a vulnerability index to assess Most of the respondents expressed that the long drought has
vulnerability to climate change of forest fringe villages under directly affected the germination and growth of the crops and
study in KTR using sector specific indicators. There are 22 major forest species leading to the unavailability of some preferred
indicators (Table 2) selected through an intensive literature fodder species in the study area. There is a shift in time of mahua
review, followed by a primary survey, participatory rural (Madhuca indica) flowering, chironji (Buchanania lanzan ),
appraisal, FGDs and consultation with the forest officials. aonla (Phyllanthus emblica) and change in leaves of tendu
Normalization is done, which is a systematic process of (Diospyros melanoxylon). Thus, the collection of mahua,
assigning a value to each one of indicator like agricultural land, chironji and tendu are much affected by climate change which
irrigation, and type of house etc. similar to the approach used to further affects the economic condition. Due to an intense
derive Human Development Index (UNDP, 2006; Hahn et al., increase in temperature, natural forest fires are also observed
2009 and Pandey et al., 2017). Finally, all the different indicators during summer seasons. Moreover, respondents provide an
were averaged to form an index corresponding to each main account of their past and discuss how matters close to them have
component and vulnerability index of each of the study villages changed over a period of time. This includes the perception of
were computed and aggregated at the range level for KTR. climate change on important measures like collection of NTFPs,
Vulnerability indicators have been partitioned into three rainfall trends, temperature trends, agriculture productivity,
dimensions of vulnerability; exposure, sensitivity and adaptive availability of water, forest fires, regeneration status, phenology,
capacity. The first dimension of vulnerability that is exposure forest cover etc. Majority of the respondents found a change i.e.
includes major components of climate variation, human system decrease in rainfall trends, rainfall days in comparison to the past
and natural resources. Exposure is considered the potential 10-15 years. Also, there is an increase in temperature during
impacts of climate variability and change. Through the process summer, and winter has shortened. The intensity of frost has
of participatory approach, communities discussed the climate increased in recent years, which too could have affected the
conditions they suffered from, and related impacts of climate productivity of crops, regeneration status, phenology, and forest
change on their livelihoods. Results showed that most important cover. Sensitivity dimension includes components of
livelihood activities and resources are affected by different environment sensitivity, socio-economic, household and climate
climatic disturbances. Changing seasons and droughts represent change sensitivity. Sensitivity is the degree to which the rural
the highest potential impact on agriculture production, NTFPs, communities are affected by the exposure. Altogether, 185
vegetation growth and phenology. Due to increase or decrease in households (HH) were selected for the study, of which 75% are
temperature and rainfall pattern, humans are prone to diseases Gonds followed by Korkus, Baigas, Yadavas and very few
frequently. Further, the natural disasters like drought, frost, fire belong to general social group. Out of the total HH sampled,
etc. would affect the natural resources, on which the forest most households were poor, and the majority of these HH were
villagers are dependent for their livelihoods. engaged in agricultural activities and NTFP collection.

Table 2: Identification of vulnerability indicators agriculture is rain fed. Further, due to poor information network
people are less aware and more vulnerable.
Dimension Main Indicators Vulnerability encompasses a variety of elements including
components sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope
and adapt. Therefore, coping strategy is important to recover
from the unfavorable situations. This includes fund support,
a. Exposure Climate Rainfall, temperature
material support, food support and information support. Results
variation
from the survey suggest that, there is a lack of formal credit
Human system Disease mechanisms but informal support is extended to the needy
through informal interactions with panchayats. There is support
Natural system Drought, frost, fire from government agencies for building houses. Also, subsidized
b. Sensitivity Environment Crop disease, infertility food is distributed via PDS. Medical professional from health
sensitivity of soil, water reduction, center also visits the remote villages and distributes medicines
low productivity freely to needy villagers. Some NGOs also visit the villages and
spread awareness about programs and new schemes. Forest
Socio economic Economic class, social
Department also provide a compensation for the loss of
sensitivity class
livestock by wild animals, besides, providing labour jobs to local
Household Family size, type of people and small facilities to HH. Using above indicators a
Sensitivity house, education vulnerability index is computed and details are presented in the
Climate change Livestock, agriculture next section.
sensitivity
c. Adaptive Social network Social relationships 3.4. Vulnerability index range wise and village
capacity/Coping wise
strategies Water Water availability
management The status of Buffer Zone is not that of a National Park and is a
Health Disease prevention, multiple use area with various land use patterns, including
medical facilities Reserved Forest, Revenue Land, Orange Area and Private Land.
Information Awareness There are six ranges in the buffer zone of KTR namely Garhi,
barrier Khatia, Motinala, Samnapur, Sijhora and Khapa. There are total
Fund support Provision of fund or 35 forest villages in buffer ranges except for Khapa which have
credit only revenue villages.The elevation varies from 450 to 940 m.
Material Provision of material There are numerous natural and artificial water sources present
support for house in the buffer zone along with important rivers like Halon which
Food support Provision of food flows through the Garhi and Sijhora forest ranges and its
tributaries provide water to forest fringe villages.
Information Provision of
Range and village wise vulnerability index is computed and
support information
represented in Table 3. The most vulnerable ranges are Garhi
Majority of the houses are of kuccha type. Each HH has an (0.63), Samnapur (0.63), Motinala(0.62) followed by Sijhora
average family size of four-seven members, and some are (0.59) and Khatia (0.59). Motinala, Garhi and to some extent
illiterate and very less educated. Due to climate change, new Sijhora range are on higher elevation with slopes ranging from
crop diseases and livestock diseases are increasing and affecting 23o to 40o. The accessibility to these ranges are not easy and have
the livelihoods of people. Further, use of fertilizers and to cover around 180-280 km from Khatia range, which is main
pesticides has increased affecting the soil fertility, which
buffer center place of KTR. Among villages, Samaria forest
ultimately reduces the productivity and quality of crops.
Additionally, climate change affects the phenology of forest village of Garhi range and Baila of Motinala range are highly
produce, which directly affects the economy of forest-dependent vulnerable. This may be due to remoteness and absence of
people. Besides, the water levels have declined in various water facilities. Moreover, most of the primitive tribal groups are
sources such as rivers, ponds, and wells. There is scarcity of dominated in these region . They are heavily dependent upon the
water, especially during the period of- seedbed preparation, forest resources, with a touch of aboriginality, they command a
flowering stage of the maize, paddy, irrigating wheat and other strong bearing on natural ecosystems. Baigas are amongst the
crops.
oldest inhabitants, primitive and interesting forest tribal of this
Adaptive capacity is the system’s ability to adapt, withstand or
recover from the effects of exposure. The social network, water region. Generally, the Baigas take to the bewar (shifting
management, health and information barrier are included in the cultivation type), a form of cultivation that consists of 2 to 3
dimension of adaptive capacity. The social relationships of the acres of dense forests, chosen usually on a very steep slope.
people are fair enough and help each other in case of emergency. They cut down the entire standing forest crop and burn it in the
Due to the remoteness of the villages, financial help and medical high summer. Later, in the rains, this ash scattered field is sown
health facilities are not available inside, but have to cover long with the seeds of marginal crops such as kodon, Kutki,
distances for reaching medical and markets. There is no drinking
water facility in the village and villagers have to go up to one km Baiganitur or sweet potatoes (Tiger Conservation Plan, KTR,
to fetch it. No irrigation facilities are available. Most of the 2014).
Table 3. Range wise and village wise Vulnerability index

environmental change. Much of the significant adaptation

Range Villages Vulnerability practices are still based on the indigenous knowledge.
index
In order to escape from continuous crop failure owing to unusual
Garhi Dhiri 0.64
rain and frequent droughts, people are forced to seek some
Japipuri 0.64
alternatives; like, people used to transplant hybrid-paddy quiet
Khirsadi 0.64
earlier; otherwise it would be affected by insecticides and pests.
Mohrai 0.59
Thus, farmers have to shift the sowing period of different crops.
Samaria 0.67 Late cultivation of paddy may hamper the cultivation season of
Topla 0.62 wheat and mustard. Some people had started to raise the fodder
AverageVI 0.63 species in their agricultural lands due to unavailability of fodder
Khatia Manegaon 0.58 species in the nearby forest. Some of the households also use
Samaiyabhagpur 0.59 biogas as an alternative to firewood, and in few villages, solar
AverageVI 0.59 street lights were also available as a renewable source of energy.
Motinala Baila 0.69 In the case of livestock, more milk yielding livestock are popular
Banderwari 0.54 as selling milk is quite easier due to market linkages and
reasonable price due to Govt. schemes. People have group
Harratola 0.64
approach to reclaim the degraded lands for fodder promotion,
Kikra 0.64
income generation activities through cash crops and community
Mangli 0.59
plantation through community forestry approach.
Average VI 0.62 Further, it has been observed that the water in ponds, wells,
Samnapur Hatwan 0.65 canals are getting reduced gradually. Moreover, people have to
Patpara 0.61 travel long distances for fetching water. Some ponds had a
Saraipatero 0.62 problem of siltation while others are either encroached or have
Average VI 0.63 dried up. But now with the realization of importance of
Sijhora Indra 0.59 traditional ponds, people are building awareness on rejuvenation
Average VI 0.59 and protection of traditional ponds. Through the initiation of
community forest user groups, peoples are engaged in the
In case, the rains are good in subsequent years; the field will conservation and maintenance of water ponds to harvest
provide excellent crops until the fourth or fifth year. After this, monsoon rain to solve the issue of water.
the owner will abandon the field for a new one. Though, the
Baigas believe that the forest grows denser after the 4. CONCLUSION
abandonment of a bewar, much damage is inflicted on the The study concludes a significant change in important climate
existing forests. Further, Gonds and Bhils are also found in these drivers i.e. precipitation and temperature in the study region. All
ranges whose livelihood are totally dependent on forest the parametric and non-parametric test revealed an overall
resources. They cultivate two millets known as Kodo or Kutki. decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature over 45
On the other hand, Khatia and Sijhora ranges are slightly years. This change in local climate has impacted forest cover,
developed and have good accessibility in comparison to Garhi, phenology, species structure and composition etc. Satellite
Samnapur and Motinala and have lower elevations and slopes image of different time period also detected the change in forest
(0o to 11.3o ), which is suitable for agriculture. Moreover, most cover types in buffer zone of KTR. There is a decrease in very
of the village people are engaged in small works related to the dense forest type (15.59%), water bodies, non-forest area and
national park, tourism-related activities and other allied sectors. increase in moderate (14.04 %) and open forest (2.57%).
Markets and other facilities are present nearby Khatia, as it is Furthermore, vulnerability assessment was done in order to
the centre of attraction for the tourists. A similar case is with understand the local perception, adaptation and coping strategies
Samnapur range due to its good accessibility and development of the local communities of forest villages affected from climate
of nearby places which makes them less vulnerable. change. Garhi, Samnapur, Motinala are the most vulnerable
ranges followed by Sijhora and Khatia. This could be due to
3.5. Adaptation strategies adopted by forest remoteness, lack of access to modern/commercial energy, poor
villagers infrastructure, higher dependency on natural resources, illiteracy
Though, people have poor knowledge on the technical matters and poor socio-economic condition. Also, the communities of
of climate change, they recall several evidences, which the forest fringe area have not been integrated with the
demonstrate that they have perceived, felt and experienced its mainstream of development, and further, the impact of climate
effects. They always had to develop and implement individual change makes these communities more vulnerable. The findings
and collective strategies to adapt to climate variability and from this research will serve as the basis for further analysis to
build adaptive capacity and framing policies. Future work will

include identification and quantification of additional sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s, Ministry of
vulnerability indices and detailed vulnerability assessment of Environment and Forest, Government of India. November,
forest fringe villages especially in the context of their 2010.
dependence on forest resources.
Kendall, M.G. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. Charles
Griffin: London, UK.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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We thank the Director, Indian Institute of Forest Management, forests. Climate Change 1995-Impacts, adaptations and
Bhopal for providing the necessary facilities and infrastructure mitigation of climate change.
for the study. We also thank our colleagues for their valuable
inputs and encouragement. Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend.
Econometrica13: 245–259.
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MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER CHANGE USING REMOTE

Article · November 2018

Rinku M Devi Bhaskar Sinha

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MULTITEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF FOREST COVER CHANGE USING REMOTE

R. M. Devi1*, B. Sinha2, J. Bisaria1 and S. Saran3

Commission V, SS: Natural Resources Management

KEYWORDS: Forest, LULC, Livelihood, Climate Change, Adaptation

1. INTRODUCTION current trend of global warming by sequestering CO2 from the

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1.2. Climate Change Vulnerability

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2.3. Multi-stage Sampling Strategy:

Firstly the clusters of forest ranges were identified. The buffer

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

This section is organized under three heads. The first part

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(c) and 0.368 °C per decade. The most significant rise in

Fig.2 Change in vegetation cover types between (a)1989 and

3.2. Analysis of Past Climatic Variables

Rainfall and temperature are the major climatic variables that

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Annual Seasonal Decadal

(d) (e) (f)

(g) (h) (i)

Similarly, in case of MaxT, 0.16°C per annum and 0.79 °C per

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3.3. Vulnerability assessment

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This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

environmental change. Much of the significant adaptation

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

Gopalakrishnan, R., Jayaraman, M., Bala, G. and

Hahn, M. B., Riederer, A. M., & Foster, S. O. 2009. The

INCCA., Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment.

This contribution has been peer-reviewed.

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