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AB1202 Week 3

This document contains a summary of a statistics lecture. It discusses key concepts related to random variables including discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass functions, cumulative distribution functions, and properties of probability distributions. Specific distributions covered include the binomial distribution and the normal distribution. Examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities for these distributions. R commands for the binomial, dbinom, and normal, pnorm and qnorm, distributions are also mentioned.

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amos liew
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53 views5 pages

AB1202 Week 3

This document contains a summary of a statistics lecture. It discusses key concepts related to random variables including discrete and continuous random variables, probability mass functions, cumulative distribution functions, and properties of probability distributions. Specific distributions covered include the binomial distribution and the normal distribution. Examples are provided to illustrate calculating probabilities for these distributions. R commands for the binomial, dbinom, and normal, pnorm and qnorm, distributions are also mentioned.

Uploaded by

amos liew
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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AB1202 Lecture Summary3 … 1Aug’22

The Aim of Education


 English author
 Anglican Priest
 Cambridge Professor
 3-time Nobel Prize Nominee

Learning point:
To score class participation points, present
ONLY your ORIGINAL solutions, NOT someone
else’s, NOT the Answer key from your
Semester 1 peers !!
Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1

3.1 Random Variables (RVs)

A RV
 Collection of numerical outcomes of an experiment
 usually denoted by X
 2 types - discrete, continuous
 associated with each RV value is a probability
 A probability distribution is a table or equation
linking each possible outcome with its probability

Draw any probability


distribution you know
Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1

32

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AB1202 Lecture Summary3 … 1Aug’22

3.1 Discrete RVs: pmf & cdf

Probability mass function (pmf) :

For any x, 0≤𝑓 𝑥 ≤1

Cumulative distribution function (cdf) :

𝐹 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑥; 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠 1 𝑎𝑠 𝑥 → ∞

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 Q 1, 2

33

3.1 Properties of discrete Probability Distributions

Draw the probability distribution for a coin tossing


experiment if the coin is NOT a fair one and has
probability of 0.6 for heads

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1

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AB1202 Lecture Summary3 … 1Aug’22

3.2 Discrete Distributions

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1

35

3.2 Let’s visit our good old friend, Binomial

After Statistics tutorials, you are usually


famished, because your tutor works you
very hard. So, frequently after class, 3
of you would drive through your favorite
fast-food joint nearby to pick up a quick
bite ... Sometimes, you get mad because
they make mistakes in processing your
orders! Suppose the probability of them processing an order
correctly is 0.9. What is the probability that the next time you go,
a. all 3 of you will get your orders processed correctly,
b. only 2 of you will get your orders processed correctly,
assuming that you place your orders independently?
Ans: a. 0.729
Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 b. 0.243

36

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AB1202 Lecture Summary3 … 1Aug’22

3.2 Binomial Distributions R command: dbinom(x,n,p)


Ans: Pre-conditions:
1. 0.2150 2. 0.0000001024; 0.03279 1. Finite no. of trials
3. 0.343 4. 0.1074 5. 0.4219 2. Outcome either success or failure
3. X = No. of successes
1. A coin has a 0.4 probability of Head. 4 Probability of success, p, is constant
If 10 such coins are thrown, what’s 5. Trials are independent
the probability of observing 3 Heads?
2. There are 10 MCQ questions in an AB1202 Quiz. Each question has 5 options. A
student who did not study for the Quiz decided to pick his answers based on random
numbers generated by his TI-84. What is the probability of him scoring full marks for
the Quiz? What is the probability of him passing the Quiz?
3. There are 3 days of outdoor events in NTU’s Orientation this year. The organizing
Committee would like to know the probability that the weather will be fine on all 3
days. A check with the Singapore Meteorological Service shows the probability of rain
in the month of Aug is 0.3.
4. Wine glasses are packed a dozen a box. The probability of glasses being broken
upon arrival is 0.01. What is the probability of a box containing 1 broken glass?
5. A box contains green and yellow balls. There are 3 times as many green balls as
there are yellow ones. If you pick 4 balls at random from the box, what is the
probability that one is yellow?
Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 Q3-5

37

3.3 Continuous RVs: pdf & cdf

Probability density function (pdf) :

For any x, 0 ≤ 𝑓 𝑥 ≤ 1

Cumulative distribution function (cdf) :

𝐹 𝑥 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑥; 𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑎𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑠 1 𝑎𝑠 𝑥 → ∞

Properties of Continuous Probability Distributions:

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1

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AB1202 Lecture Summary3 … 1Aug’22

3.3 The Normal Distribution

1. The standard z-distribution is a normal distribution


with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1:
a. Find P ( -1.4 < z < 2.7 ) Ans: 0.9157
b. Find P ( -1.42 < z < 2.78 ) Ans: 0.9195
c. Find the z-value subtending a tail area of 0.015. Ans: 2.17

2. According to published growth charts, the average weight of 2-year olds


in Singapore is approximately 11.8 kg with standard deviation of 1.28 kg.
a) Calculate the percentage of 2-year olds who weigh between 10.5 kg
and 14.4 kg. (Ans: 82.4%)
b) What is the minimum weight of a 2-year old in order to stay within the
top 95%? (Ans: 9.69 kg)

Nanyang Business School, chTan 2223 S1 Q6-8

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3.2 & 3.3 R Commands

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