Statistics

Statistics is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, displaying, analysis,
interpretation and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social
problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied.
Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or
"every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning
of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.

When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment
designs and survey samples. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can
reasonably extend from the sample to the population as a whole. An experimental study involves
taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking
additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified
the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental
manipulation.

Two main statistical methods are used in data analysis: descriptive statistics, which summarize data
from a sample using indexes such as the mean or standard deviation, and inferential statistics, which
draw conclusions from data that are subject to random variation (e.g., observational errors, sampling
variation). Descriptive statistics are most often concerned with two sets of properties of
a distribution (sample or population): central tendency (or location) seeks to characterize the
distribution's central or typical value, while dispersion (or variability) characterizes the extent to which
members of the distribution depart from its centre and each other. Inferences on mathematical
statistics are made under the framework of probability theory, which deals with the analysis of
random phenomena.

A standard statistical procedure involves the test of the relationship between two statistical data sets,
or a data set and synthetic data drawn from an idealized model. A hypothesis is proposed for the
statistical relationship between the two data sets, and this is compared as an alternative to an
idealized null hypothesis of no relationship between two data sets. Rejecting or disproving the null
hypothesis is done using statistical tests that quantify the sense in which the null can be proven
false, given the data that are used in the test. Working from a null hypothesis, two basic forms of
error are recognized: Type I errors (null hypothesis is falsely rejected giving a "false positive")
and Type II errors (null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual difference between populations
is missed giving a "false negative"). Multiple problems have come to be associated with this
framework: ranging from obtaining a sufficient sample size to specifying an adequate null
hypothesis.

Some definitions are:

 Merriam-Webster dictionary defines statistics as "a branch of mathematics dealing with the
collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data.
 Statistician Arthur Lyon Bowley defines statistics as "Numerical statements of facts in any
department of inquiry placed in relation to each other.

Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation or
explanation, and presentation of data, or as a branch of mathematics. Some consider statistics to be
a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics. While many scientific
investigations make use of data, statistics is concerned with the use of data in the context of
uncertainty and decision making in the face of uncertainty.
In applying statistics to a problem, it is common practice to start with a population or process to be
studied. Populations can be diverse topics such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom
composing a crystal".
Ideally, statisticians compile data about the entire population (an operation called census). This may
be organized by governmental statistical institutes. Descriptive statistics can be used to summarize
the population data. Numerical descriptors include mean and standard deviation for continuous
data types (like income), while frequency and percentage are more useful in terms of
describing categorical data (like education).
When a census is not feasible, a chosen subset of the population called a sample is studied. Once a
sample that is representative of the population is determined, data is collected for the sample
members in an observational or experimental setting. Again, descriptive statistics can be used to
summarize the sample data. However, the drawing of the sample has been subject to an element of
randomness, hence the established numerical descriptors from the sample are also due to
uncertainty. To still draw meaningful conclusions about the entire population, inferential statistics is
needed. It uses patterns in the sample data to draw inferences about the population represented,
accounting for randomness. These inferences may take the form of: answering yes/no questions
about the data (hypothesis testing), estimating numerical characteristics of the data (estimation),
describing associations within the data (correlation) and modeling relationships within the data (for
example, using regression analysis). Inference can extend to forecasting, prediction and estimation
of unobserved values either in or associated with the population being studied; it can
include extrapolation and interpolation of time series or spatial data, and can also include data
mining.

Statistic

A statistic is a characteristic of a sample. Generally, a statistic is used to estimate the value of a

population parameter.

For instance, suppose we selected a random sample of 100 students from a school with 1000 students.
The average height of the sampled students would be an example of a statistic. So would the average
grade point average. In fact, any measurable characteristic of the sample would be an example of a
statistic.

Populations and Samples

The study of statistics revolves around the study of data sets. This lesson describes two important types of
data sets -populations and samples. Along the way, we'll introduce simple random sampling, the main
method used in this tutorial to select samples.
Population vs Sample

The main difference between a population and sample has to do with how observations are assigned to
the data set.

 A population includes all of the elements from a set of data.

 A sample consists one or more observations drawn from the population.

Depending on the sampling method, a sample can have fewer observations than the population, the same
number of observations, or more observations. More than one sample can be derived from the same
population.

Other differences have to do with nomenclature, notation, and computations. For example,

 A measurable characteristic of a population, such as a mean or standard deviation, is called

a parameter; but a measurable characteristic of a sample is called a statistic.
 We will see in future lessons that the mean of a population is denoted by the symbol μ; but the
mean of a sample is denoted by the symbol x.
 We will also learn in future lessons that the formula for the standard deviation of a population is
different from the formula for the standard deviation of a sample.

Simple Random Sampling

Simple random sampling refers to a sampling method that has the following properties.

 The population consists of N objects.

 The sample consists of n objects.
 All possible samples of n objects are equally likely to occur.

An important benefit of simple random sampling is that it allows researchers to use statistical methods to
analyze sample results. For example, given a simple random sample, researchers can use statistical
methods to define a confidence interval around a sample mean. Statistical analysis is not appropriate
when non-random sampling methods are used.

Sample Selection

There are many ways to select a simple random sample. One way would be the lottery method. Each of
the N population members is assigned a unique number. The numbers are placed in a bowl and
thoroughly mixed. Then, a blind-folded researcher selects n numbers. Population members having the
selected numbers are included in the sample.

Problem 1

The principal of Thomas Jefferson Elementary School wants to assess reading achievement of third
graders. He asks the vice principal to put together a list of all the third graders. Then, the principal
randomly selects a student from the first three students on the list. Starting with that student, the
principal selects every third student for the assessment. For example, if student number 2 were the first
student selected, the sample would consist of student number 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, etc.

Is this an example of simple random sampling?

(A) Yes
(B) No
(C) Not enough information to say for sure.

Solution

The correct answer is (B). This is not an example of simple random selection, because each possible
sample is not equally likely to occur. For example, if student number 2 were in the sample, the sample
could never include student numbers 1 or 3. The selection method described in this problem is an
example of a systematic random sample, not a simple random sample.

Survey Sampling Methods

Sampling method refers to the way that observations are selected from a population to be in
the sample for a sample survey.

Population Parameter vs. Sample Statistic

The reason for conducting a sample survey is to estimate the value of some attribute of a population.

 Population parameter. A population parameter is the true value of a population attribute.

 Sample statistic. A sample statistic is an estimate, based on sample data, of a population
parameter.
Consider this example. A public opinion pollster wants to know the percentage of voters that favor a flat-
rate income tax. The actual percentage of all the voters is a population parameter. The estimate of that
percentage, based on sample data, is a sample statistic.

The quality of a sample statistic (i.e., accuracy, precision, representativeness) is strongly affected by the
way that sample observations are chosen; that is., by the sampling method.

Probability vs. Non-Probability Samples

As a group, sampling methods fall into one of two categories.

 Probability samples. With probability sampling methods, each population element has a known
(non-zero) chance of being chosen for the sample.
 Non-probability samples. With non-probability sampling methods, we do not know the
probability that each population element will be chosen, and/or we cannot be sure that each
population element has a non-zero chance of being chosen.

Non-probability sampling methods offer two potential advantages - convenience and cost. The main
disadvantage is that non-probability sampling methods do not allow you to estimate the extent to which
sample statistics are likely to differ from population parameters. Only probability sampling methods
permit that kind of analysis.

Non-Probability Sampling Methods

Two of the main types of non-probability sampling methods are voluntary samples and convenience
samples.

 Voluntary sample. A voluntary sample is made up of people who self-select into the survey.
Often, these folks have a strong interest in the main topic of the survey.

Suppose, for example, that a news show asks viewers to participate in an on-line poll. This would
be a volunteer sample. The sample is chosen by the viewers, not by the survey administrator.

 Convenience sample. A convenience sample is made up of people who are easy to reach.

Consider the following example. A pollster interviews shoppers at a local mall. If the mall was
chosen because it was a convenient site from which to solicit survey participants and/or because
it was close to the pollster's home or business, this would be a convenience sample.
Probability Sampling Methods

The main types of probability sampling methods are simple random sampling, stratified sampling, cluster
sampling, multistage sampling, and systematic random sampling. The key benefit of probability sampling
methods is that they guarantee that the sample chosen is representative of the population. This ensures
that the statistical conclusions will be valid.

 Simple random sampling. Simple random sampling refers to any sampling method that has the
following properties.

 The population consists of N objects.

 The sample consists of n objects.
 If all possible samples of n objects are equally likely to occur, the sampling method is
called simple random sampling.

There are many ways to obtain a simple random sample. One way would be the lottery method.
Each of the N population members is assigned a unique number. The numbers are placed in a
bowl and thoroughly mixed. Then, a blind-folded researcher selects n numbers. Population
members having the selected numbers are included in the sample.

 Stratified sampling. With stratified sampling, the population is divided into groups, based on
some characteristic. Then, within each group, a probability sample (often a simple random
sample) is selected. In stratified sampling, the groups are called strata.

As a example, suppose we conduct a national survey. We might divide the population into groups
or strata, based on geography - north, east, south, and west. Then, within each stratum, we might
randomly select survey respondents.

 Cluster sampling. With cluster sampling, every member of the population is assigned to one, and
only one, group. Each group is called a cluster. A sample of clusters is chosen, using a probability
method (often simple random sampling). Only individuals within sampled clusters are surveyed.

Note the difference between cluster sampling and stratified sampling. With stratified sampling,
the sample includes elements from each stratum. With cluster sampling, in contrast, the sample
includes elements only from sampled clusters.

 Multistage sampling. With multistage sampling, we select a sample by using combinations of

different sampling methods.
 For example, in Stage 1, we might use cluster sampling to choose clusters from a population.
Then, in Stage 2, we might use simple random sampling to select a subset of elements from each
chosen cluster for the final sample.

 Systematic random sampling. With systematic random sampling, we create a list of every
member of the population. From the list, we randomly select the first sample element from the
first k elements on the population list. Thereafter, we select every kth element on the list.

This method is different from simple random sampling since every possible sample of n elements
is not equally likely.

Problem

An auto analyst is conducting a satisfaction survey, sampling from a list of 10,000 new car buyers. The list
includes 2,500 Ford buyers, 2,500 GM buyers, 2,500 Honda buyers, and 2,500 Toyota buyers. The analyst
selects a sample of 400 car buyers, by randomly sampling 100 buyers of each brand.

Is this an example of a simple random sample?

(A) Yes, because each buyer in the sample was randomly sampled.
(B) Yes, because each buyer in the sample had an equal chance of being sampled.
(C) Yes, because car buyers of every brand were equally represented in the sample.
(D) No, because every possible 400-buyer sample did not have an equal chance of being chosen.
(E) No, because the population consisted of purchasers of four different brands of car.

Solution

The correct answer is (D). A simple random sample requires that every sample of size n (in this
problem, n is equal to 400) has an equal chance of being selected. In this problem, there was a 100
percent chance that the sample would include 100 purchasers of each brand of car. There was zero
percent chance that the sample would include, for example, 99 Ford buyers, 101 Honda buyers, 100
Toyota buyers, and 100 GM buyers. Thus, all possible samples of size 400 did not have an equal chance of
being selected; so this cannot be a simple random sample.

The fact that each buyer in the sample was randomly sampled is a necessary condition for a simple
random sample, but it is not sufficient. Similarly, the fact that each buyer in the sample had an equal
chance of being selected is characteristic of a simple random sample, but it is not sufficient. The sampling
method in this problem used random sampling and gave each buyer an equal chance of being selected;
but the sampling method was actually stratified random sampling.

The fact that car buyers of every brand were equally represented in the sample is irrelevant to whether the
sampling method was simple random sampling. Similarly, the fact that population consisted of buyers of
different car brands is irrelevant.