WORKSHEET | WEEK 2

Complete Name (Last Name, First Name):

Use this worksheet in answering the questions and Problems Below.

For each problem, kindly, have a separate excel sheet to show your solution. Sheet name should be the
number of each problem (Example: Sheet 1 is Problem1).

Part 1: Know the Terms (Separate Excel Sheet-Title is Part 1)

adjusted exponential
mean squared error (MSE) time series methods
smoothing
seasonal factor exponential smoothing Trend
Delphi method smoothing constant average error
mean absolute percent deviation
multiple regression time frame
(MAPD)
linear trend line long-range forecast correlation
forecast error cumulative error quantitative forecast methods

_____1. procedure for acquiring informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals to
use as a subjective forecast.
_____2. a mathematical relationship that relates a dependent variable to two or more independent
variables.
_____3. a gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand.
_____4. the cumulative error averaged over the number of time periods.
_____5. the absolute forecast error measured as a percentage of demand.
_____6. the average of the squared forecast errors.
_____7. an exponential smoothing forecast adjusted for trend.
_____8. how far into the future something is forecasted.
_____9. a sum of the forecast errors; also known as bias.
_____10. numerical value that is multiplied by the normal forecast to get a seasonally adjusted
forecast.

Problem 1
Problem Solving: Answer the Problem Below. Write your answer on this sheet. Kindly make
sure that you layout your answers well so that it could easily be understood.

A separate excel sheet should be provided for your solution.

Develop a three-period moving average forecast and a three-period weighted moving average forecast
with weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent demand values, in that order. Provide a
forecasted demand for the month of October. Calculate MAD for each forecast, and indicate which
would seem to be most accurate.

Deman
Month d
February 520
March 490
April 550
May 580
June 600
July 420
August 510
September 610
Problem 2
Problem Solving: Answer the Problem Below. Write your answer on this sheet. Kindly make
sure that you layout your answers well so that it could easily be understood.

A separate excel sheet should be provided for your solution.

The chairperson of the CIT IE Department wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in
operations management next semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The
chair has accumulated the following enrollment data for the past eight semesters:

Number of
Semester Enrolled in
OM
1 270
2 310
3 250
4 290
5 370
6 410
7 400
8 500

a. Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 9.

Problem 3
Problem Solving: Answer the Problem Below. Write your answer on this sheet. Kindly make
sure that you layout your answers well so that it could easily be understood.

A separate excel sheet should be provided for your solution.

The Intrepid mutual fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10
months.

Fund
Month Price
1 62.70
2 63.90
3 68.00
4 66.40
5 67.20
6 65.80
7 68.20
8 69.30
9 67.20
10 70.10

Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast with (α= 0.40), the adjusted exponentially smoothed
forecast with(α= 0.40) and (β=0.30), and the linear trend line forecast for Month 11. Compare the
accuracy of the three forecasts using MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate.
Problem 4
Problem Solving: Answer the Problem Below. Write your answer on this sheet. Kindly make
sure that you layout your answers well so that it could easily be understood.

A separate excel sheet should be provided for your solution.

Townside Food Vending operates vending machines in office buildings, the airport, bus stations,
colleges, and other businesses and agencies around town and operates vending trucks for building
and construction sites. The company believes its sandwich sales follow a seasonal pattern. It has
accumulated the following data for sandwich sales per season during the past four years.

Sandwiches (1000s)
Season 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fall 42.7 44.3 45.7 49.6
Winter 36.9 42.7 34.8 41.5
Spring 51.3 55.6 49.3 47.3
Summer 62.9 64.8 71.2 74.5

Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these sandwich sales data. Forecast demand for
each season for 2022 using a linear trend line estimate for sales in 2022.

Do the data appear to have a seasonal pattern? Defend using your Answer using a Trend Chart.

END OF W EEK 2