5 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

The theory of probability is a branch of mathematics which deals with the measurement of
uncertainty. It was developed originally for predicting winners in games of chance. In the latest
National and Local elections, many people placed their bets on certain candidates which they believed
to have the “best chances” of winning. In pre-tournament seeding, a team is ranked no. 1 because
they appear to have the “best odds” of winning the tournament. These are examples of how
probabilities may be assigned.
Unless we know what will possibly happen, it will be difficult to assign acceptable
probabilities. We cannot predict the next president unless we know who the candidates are. We
cannot bet on a basketball team unless we have a list of participating teams. Thus, we cannot assign
probabilities unless we have a listing of all the possible events that can happen. However, if a listing is
not available in a particular situation, we can „imagine‟ all the different things that will happen. In
short, there is a need to count, and counting can be made easier with the use of counting techniques.

5.1 THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING (FPC)

In many situations, we shall be able to solve probability problems by merely counting
the number of elements that is directly connected with the problem under consideration,
without actually listing each element. This is done by applying the Fundamental Principle of
Counting, which is stated as follows:
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways and if for each of these a second
operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed together
in n1  n2 ways.
This principle can be extended to three (3) or more operations. To apply this
principle, it is necessary that the processes involved in the experiment should be identified,
as well as the number of ways in which these processes can be done. For some problems,
the possible outcomes can be best illustrated using a tree diagram. A tree diagram is a
systematic way of listing all possible outcomes.

Example 5.1 Three items are selected randomly from a manufacturing process. Each item
is inspected and classified as defective (D) or non-defective (N). Determine the number of
ways this selection can be done, using: (a.) the fundamental principle of counting, and (b.)
the tree diagram.
Solution: a.) Using the fundamental principle of counting, the first item can be chosen in
two ways, N or D , the second item can also be chosen in 2 ways, N or D and the third item
can be drawn also in the same manner. Hence, the whole operation can be done in 2  2 
2 = 8 ways.
b.) Using a tree diagram we have
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

PROCESSES
First item Second item Third item Outcomes

Example 5.2 A student has to enroll in Math 31, Physics 11 and Chemistry 15. If there are
2 sections in Math 31 (A & G), 2 sections in Chemistry 15 (I & E) and 1 section in Phys 11
(J), how many possible schedules can he make, assuming there is no conflict of schedules?
Solution: A sequence of 3 operations is involved; the selection of a Math section, then the
selection of a Chemistry section, and finally the selection of a Physics section. Applying the
principle of counting, the number of possible schedules is
n = 2  2  1 = 4 ways.
(Math) (Chem) (Phys)

The solution using a tree diagram is as follows:

Math Chemistry Physics Outcomes

The outcomes are the 4 possible schedules, as confirmed using the principle of
counting, shown above.

Example 5.3 How many 3-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 3, 4, 8 and 9 if
a.) no digit is repeated
b.) repetition of digits is allowed
c.) repetition of digits is allowed and the number is even.
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Solutions: a.) n = 4  3  2 = 24 ways.

(hundreds) (tens) (ones)
This follows from the fundamental principle of counting. There are 4
digits to choose for the hundreds place. When one of them is used for the
hundreds position, only 3 digits can be used for the tens place. Finally, there
are only 2 digits left for the ones place. Hence, there are 24 three-digit
numbers when no digit is repeated. Some of these numbers are 348, 349,
489, 483, 843, etc.
b.) n = 4  4  4 = 64 ways.
There are 64 three-digit numbers, when repetition of digits is allowed.
Some of these are 333, 343, 348, 848, 844, 499, etc.
c.) n = 4  4  2 = 32 ways.
An even number ends with 4 or 8, thus, there are 2 choices for the
ones position. Since repetition of digit is allowed we can use all 4 digits in the
tens and hundreds position. By FPC, we get 32 three-digit numbers. Some of
these are 348, 344, 394, 398, 884, 488, 894, 988, etc.

5.2 PERMUTATION
A set of objects can be arranged in different ways depending on the number of
objects in the set and the number of objects in a particular arrangement. Each ordered
arrangement of all or part of a set of objects is called a permutation.
5.2.1 Some Properties of Permutation
In arranging a set of objects or a part of it, there are several properties to consider.
Only four are discussed below.
Property 1 The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n!.
Example 5.4 In how many ways can Vic, Joey, Luz and Ann be seated in a row of 4 chairs?
Solution: n! = 4! = 4  3  2  1 = 24 ways.
This follows from the FPC. That is, we can choose from 4 people to sit first in the
row, the second seat can be used by any of the 3 remaining persons (since one
has already been seated), the third seat can be taken by any of the 2, and the
fourth seat by the last person who have not yet seated.

Example 5.5. a.) How many distinct permutations can be made from the letters of the word
„FRIEND‟? b.) How many of these permutations start with the letter F?
Solution: a.) n! = 6! = 6  5  4  3  2  1 = 720 ways.
Following the same argument as in the earlier illustration, there are 6 letters
that can be chosen for the first position, 5 letters for the second position, 4
letters for the third and so on. Some of these permutations or arrangements are
FRIEND, RIENDF, RIFEND, DRIENF, DRIEFN, DRINEF, DRENFI, ERINDF, IRFDEN, etc.

b.) n = 1  5  4  3  2  1 = 120 ways.

 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

The first position is occupied by the letter “F” only. The next position can be
occupied by any of the 5 remaining letters, and so on, until only 1 letter is left for
the last position. Some of the permutations are FRIEND, FIREND, FRNDIE, FRENID,
etc

Suppose there are 4 objects namely a,b,c and d. To arrange these objects two (2) at
a time, the possible arrangements or permutations are:
ab ba bc cb
ab ba bc cb
ad da cd dc
4!
There are a total of  12 possible permutations. This is generalized in
(4  2)!
Property 2 below.

Property 2 The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is:

n!
n Pr  .
(n  r )!

Example 5.6 If three prizes, the first, second and the third prize will be awarded from among
10 equally-qualified students, in how many ways can this be done if only one set of prizes
will be won?
Solution: With n  10 and r  3 , the number of ways the awards can be given to the
students is:
10! 10!
10 P3    720 ways.
(10  3)! 7!

Example 5.7 How many ways can 2 vacant positions for President and Vice-President, be
filled from among 6 equally-qualified company officials?
Solution: With n  6 and r  2 , the number of ways is:
6! 6!
6 P2    30 ways.
(6  2)! 4!
This problem can also be solved using FPC. Note that there are 6 executives who
can qualify for the presidency. If this is filled, 5 of the remaining executives can vie for the
vice presidency. Thus, 6  5 = 30 ways.

Property 3 The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind
(or same kind), n2 of a second kind, ..., nk of the kth kind , is given by
n!
n Pn1 , n2 ,, nk 
n1 ! n2 !   nk !
where n  n1  n2    nk .
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Example 5.8 How many different ways can 3 red, 4 yellow and 2 blue bulbs be arranged in
a string of Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets.
Solution: The total number of distinct arrangements is:
9! 9  8  7  6  5  4!
9 P3,4,2    1260 ways.
3! 4!  2! 3  2  1  4!  2  1
If objects are arranged in a circle, rather than in a line, the number of possible
arrangements is given in the next property.

Property 4 The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is

(n  1)! .

Example 5.9. In how many ways can 6 different varieties of gumamela be planted in a
circle?

Solution: There are n  6 different species of gumamela. The number of permutations is:
(n1)! = (61)! = 5! = 5  4  3  2  1 = 120 ways.

5.3 COMBINATION
In some cases, we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n
distinct objects without regard to order. These selections are called combinations. For the
four objects a, b, c and d, it was illustrated above that 12 possible arrangements are
possible. However, the two permutations ab and ba, use the same set of letters and is
considered as only one combination. Also, ac and ca is only one combination, and so on. If
we examine the whole listing, there are a total of only 6 combinations. For any positive
integers n and r, the number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

n!
n Cr 
r ! (n  r )!
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Example 5.10 How many different combinations can be formed from the letters a, b, and c
if 2 letters are taken at a time?
Solution: With n  3 and r  2 , the total number of combinations is:
3! 3!
3 C2    3 and these are ab, ac and bc.
2! (3  2)! 2!1 !

Example 5.11 From 4 Mathematicians and 3 Statisticians find the number of committees of
size 3 that can be formed with 2 Mathematicians and 1 Statistician.
Solution: The number of ways, n1 , to select 2 Mathematicians from 4 is:
4! 4!
n1  4 C2    6 ways.
2! (4  2)! 2!2!
The number of ways, n2 , to select 1 Statistician from 3 is:
3! 3!
n2  3 C1    3 ways.
1 ! (3  1)! 1 ! 2!

From the fundamental principle of counting the number of committees that can be
formed with 2 Mathematicians and 1 Statistician is n1  n2  6  3  18 ways.

Note: Permutation involves situations where ordering is relevant, such as forming numbers from a
given set of digits, while combination does not consider the order of the elements, as in
forming a subgroup from a bigger group.

Example 5.12 From 5 CBA, 4 CSM and 3 COE students, a committee consisting of 3 CBA, 2
CSM and 1 COE student is to be formed. In how many ways can this be done if:
a.) any student from these colleges can be included.
b.) one particular CSM student must be in the committee.
c.) 2 particular CBA students cannot be in the committee.
Solution: a.) The number of ways to select 3 CBA students out of 5 is: 5 C3  10 ways; 2
CSM students out of 4 can be selected in 4 C2  16 ways; 1 COE student out
of 3 can be selected in 3 C1  3 ways.
Hence, by the fundamental principle of counting, the number of possible
selections to form the committee is given by 10  6  3 = 180 ways.
b.) The number of ways to select 3 CBA students out of 5 is still 5 C3  10 ways;
since one particular CSM student must be in the committee then only 1 CSM
student out of 3 can be selected, that is, 3 C1  3 ways; and 1 COE student
out of 3 can be selected in 3 C1  3 ways.
Hence, by the fundamental principle of counting, the number of possible
selections to form the committee is given by 10  3  3 = 90 ways.
c.) Exercise.

Note: By pressing appropriate keys in your calculator, one can conveniently compute for n Pr and
n Cr
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

5.4 STATISTICAL EXPERIMENTS

We are all familiar with the importance of experiments in science and engineering. A
fundamental objective is that if we perform such experiments repeatedly under very nearly
identical conditions we arrive at results, which are essentially the same. There are,
however, experiments in which results will not be essentially the same even though
conditions may be nearly identical. Such experiments are called random or statistical
experiments. Statistical experiments have the following characteristics:
a.) A listing of all outcomes is possible or at least conceivable.
b.) Any outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.
An example of a statistical experiment is tossing a coin, or drawing a ball from a box,
or measuring the daily amount of rainfall in Lanao del Norte. When a coin is tossed, we
cannot be certain that it will result in a head. However, we know the possible outcomes for
each toss, that is, either a head or tail.

5.5 SAMPLE SPACE

The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample
space and is denoted by S. Each outcome in a sample space is called a sample point or an
element of S. A sample space is chosen according to our point of interest in the experiment.
A tree diagram can also be defined as a systematic way of listing the elements in the sample
space.
In many cases, we shall be able to count the number of points in the sample space
without actually listing each element. This is done with the use of the principle of counting,
permutation, and combination, which are helpful in solving problems in probability. Let us
now define some important terms that will be used in the succeeding discussion.
An event is a subset of a sample space denoted by capital letters such as A, B,, Z .
It can either be simple or compound. If an event is a set containing only one element of the
sample space, then it is called a simple event. A compound event is one that can be
expressed as the union of simple events. The null or empty space is a set that contains no
element. Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur simultaneously. On the
other hand, two events are equally likely when there is no reason to expect one event rather
than the other to occur, i.e. having the same probability of occurrence.

Example 5.13 In a toss of a coin there are two possible outcomes, a head (H) or a tail (T).
Thus the sample space is S  H, T .

Example 5.14 Construct a sample space for the experiment of tossing two coins.
Solution: If two coins are tossed, the possible outcomes are: both coins show heads, the first
coin shows head and the second coin shows tail, the first coin shows tail and the
second coin shows head, or both coins show tails. Hence the sample space is
S  HH, HT , TH, TT  .

Example 5.15 A student is chosen at random from a mathematics class of 35 students.

What is the sample space S for this experiment?
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Solution: If we are interested on the sex of the student, then the sample space is S  { M, F } ,
M for male and F for female. If we want to know who the student is, then the sample
space will consist of the names of the 35 students in the class.

Example 5.16 A two-stage experiment consists of first tossing a coin and then drawing a
letter at random from X, Y, Z. Using a tree diagram, list all the elements of the sample space
S.
Solution: The first stage of the experiment results to 2 outcomes, H or T. Randomly drawing
a letter from X, Y, Z, results to 3 outcomes. By the fundamental principle of counting,
there should be 2  3 = 6 possible results. The tree diagram that follows shows
these 6 outcomes.

TREE DIAGRAM
Tossing Drawing Sample point
a coin a letter from X,Y,Z Element

Hence, the sample space is S  HX, HY , HZ , TX, TY , TZ .

Example 5.17 If an experiment consists of throwing a die and then drawing a letter from the
English alphabet, how many points are in the sample space?
Solution. A die can land in any of 6 ways, that is, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 . A letter can be drawn in
any of the 26 letters of the English alphabet  A, B,, Z . Therefore, there are
6  26  156 sample points in S.

Example 5.18 Consider an experiment of tossing a die.

a.) Determine O, the event that the outcome is an odd number on the top face
b.) Determine E, the event that the outcome is an even number on the top face.
c.) Are events O and E mutually exclusive and equally likely?
Solution. The sample space for this experiment is S  { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 } .

a.) The event O is the subset of S consisting of odd numbers, hence O  { 1, 3, 5 } .

b.)The event E is the subset of S consisting of even numbers, hence E  { 2,4,6 } .

c.) Events O and E are mutually exclusive since both O and E cannot occur
simultaneously. Furthermore, they are both equally likely since each element
has the same chance of occurring.
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Example 5.19 An experiment consists of drawing a card from a deck of 52 playing cards.
Determine H, the event that a heart is drawn.
Solution: Let X be the set consisting of 13 hearts, Y be the set of 13 clubs, Z be the set of
13 spades and W be the set of 13 diamonds. The sample space is
S  X  Y  Z  W . The event H is the subset of S consisting of hearts, hence
HX.

Example 5.20 Consider the experiment of tossing 2 coins. Determine the following:
a.) A, the event that at least one head will occur
b.) B, the event that at most 2 heads will occur.
c.) Are events A and B mutually exclusive?
Solution. The sample space is S   HH, HT , TH, TT  .
a.) The event A is the subset of S consisting of one and two heads hence,
A   HH, HT , TH 
b.) The event B is the subset of S consisting of two, one and no heads, hence,
B   HH, HT, TH, TT 
c.) Obviously, the two events A and B are not mutually exclusive since the
intersection of the two sets is not an empty set.

5.6 PROBABILITY
Probability is a term used in everyday conversation to indicate the measure of one‟s
belief in the occurrence of future event. The concept of probability is necessary in any
natural processes that generate observations, which cannot be predicted with certainty.
In any random experiment, there is always uncertainty as to whether a particular
event will occur or will not occur. As a measure of chance or probability with which we can
expect the event to occur, it is convenient to assign a number between 0 and 1. If we are
sure or certain that the event will occur, we say that its probability is 100% or 1. But if we are
sure that the event will not occur, we say that its probability is 0.
A popular method of assigning probabilities is the classical method that is discussed
below.

5.6.1 The Classical Definition of Probability

Classical probability has its origin in the 17th century when the games of chance
were popular at that time. The computation of the probability of an event is based on
counting techniques: that is, counting elements of events and sample spaces. For example,
when a fair coin is tossed, the probability of observing a head is assigned a probability of
one-half. When a single die is rolled, the probability of an outcome of 2 dots is 1/6. One
does not have to toss a coin or roll a die to get the probability. One merely deduces from
possible outcomes of experiments to assign probabilities. The classical definition of
probability is stated as:
“If an experiment can result in any one of n different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly m of this ways correspond to event A, then the probability of event A is:
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

m
P ( A)  .
n

Example 5.21 What is the probability of drawing a king from a deck of playing cards?
Solution: S = {52 playing cards}
K = event of drawing a king
that is, K ={ king of Hearts, king of Diamonds, king of Spades, king of Clubs }
4 1
Therefore, P (K)  = .
52 13

Example 5.22 If two dice are tossed, what is the probability that the sum of the numbers is
greater than 10?
Solution: S = {36 possible outcomes}
A = event of getting a sum of numbers greater than 10
Hence, A = {(5,6), (6,5), (6,6)}
3 1
Thus, P ( A)  = .
36 12

5.6.2 Properties of Probability

From the classical definition of probability given above, we can see that its value is
nonnegative because it is a ratio of two nonnegative integers. Also, the numerator cannot be
greater than the denominator, hence the ratio will not exceed 1. The values of the probability
measure can be summarized by the following properties:
1. 0  P(E)  1
2. P()  0
3. P(S)  1
4. P(E)  P(E )  1 , where E and E  are complementary events.
The statements above imply that the measure of probability is only from 0 to 1. A
probability close to 0 means that the event is not likely to occur while a probability close to 1
means that an event is quite likely to occur. The probability of the null event is 0 while the
probability of the sample space is 1. Moreover, the sum of the probabilities of the event and
its complement is 1.

5.6.3 Some Probability Laws

Using the classical definition of probability, some rules that will help simplify in
computing the probability of an event, or composition of events, are given below.

5.6.3.1 General Addition Rule. This applies to union of events. If A and B are any two
events, then P( A  B)  P( A)  P(B)  P( A  B) , where P( A  B) which can also be written as
P (AB) is the joint probability that both events will occur simultaneously. If two events are
mutually exclusive, then P( A  B)  0 . Thus, P( A  B)  P( A)  P(B) .
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Figure 4.1 Flowchart for the Addition Rule

Example 5.23 Find the probability of drawing either an ace or a king in a single draw.
Solution: Let A be the event of drawing an ace from a deck of cards and K be the event of
4 1 4 1
drawing a king. Thus, P ( A)   and P (K)   . Now, P( A  K)  0 ,
52 13 52 13
since both ace and king cannot be drawn in a single draw. Hence,
1 1 2
P ( A  K)  P ( A)  P (K)    .
13 13 13

Example 5.24 If we draw one card from a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability that it
will be a club or a face card?

Solution: Let C be the event of drawing a club and F be the event of drawing a face card.
13 12 3
Thus, P (C)  and P (F )  . P (C  F )  with the king, queen and jack of
52 52 52
clubs as the intersection elements. Thus,
13 12 3 22 11
P (C  F )  P (C)  P (F )  P (C  F )     or .
52 52 52 52 26

5.6.3.2 Multiplication Rule. If in an experiment, the events A and B can both occur, then
P( AB)  P( A)  P( B / A) , where P(B / A) is the conditional probability that B occurs given
A. P( AB)  P( A)  P(B) if A and B are independent.

Remark: Two events A and B are independent if either P( B / A)  P( B) or P( A / B)  P( A) .

Otherwise, A and B are dependent.
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

The independence can best be illustrated by using the „balls and box‟ example.
Suppose a box contain 5 balls and 2 balls are drawn in succession. If after the first draw, a
second ball is drawn without returning the first ball, this is a process called drawing balls
without replacement. The resulting events are dependent because the probability of the
second draw will depend upon the outcome of the first draw. If the first ball drawn is
returned before the second ball is drawn, this is drawing two balls with replacement. The
resulting events are independent.

Figure 4.2 Flowchart for the Multiplication Rule

Example 5.25 A box contain 5 balls wherein 3 are white and 2 are black. Now, 2 balls are
drawn from a box successively, what is the probability that both balls drawn are black?
a.) consider with replacement (events are independent)
b.) consider without replacement (events are dependent)
Solution: a.) Let B1 be the event that the first ball drawn is black and B2 be the event that the
2 2
second ball drawn is black. Note that P (B1 )  and P (B2 )  . Hence,
5 5
2 2 4
P (B1  B2 )  P (B1 )  P (B2 )    .
5 5 25
2 1
b.) P (B1 )  and P (B2 / B1 )  , since 1 black ball is already drawn, and
5 4
there are now only a total of 4 remaining balls left. Hence,
2 1 2 1
P (B1  B2 )  P (B1 )  P (B2 / B1 )     .
5 4 20 10

Remark: The Multiplication Rule can be extended to three or more events as illustrated in the next
example.
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Example 5.26 A class has 8 boys and 15 girls. If three students are selected at random
from the class, what is the probability that they are all boys?

Solution: Let Bi be the event that the i th student selected is a boy where i  1 , 2 , 3 . The
8
probability that the first student selected is a boy is since there are 8 boys
23
out of 23 students. If the first student is a boy, then the probability that the
7
second is also a boy is since there are 7 boys left out of 22 students.
22
Finally, if the first two students selected were boys, then the probability that the
6
third student is a boy is since there are 8 boys left out of 13 students. Thus,
21
by the multiplication theorem, the probability that all three are boys is:
8 7 6 336
P (B1 B2B3 )      0.0316
23 22 21 10626

Example 5.27 Exposure of a certain fruit fly population to an insecticide has produced 2
kinds of mutations. 20% have wing mutation, 15% have an eye mutation and 5% have both.
A fly is selected at random.
a.) If it has the wing mutation, what is the probability that it also has the eye
mutation?
b.) If it has the eye mutation, what is the probability that it also has the wing
mutation?
c.) What is the probability that it has at least one of the mutations?
Solutions: Let E be an event of selecting a fly with an eye mutation and W be an event of
selecting a fly with a wing mutation. Then,
P( E  W ) 0.05
a.) P( E / W )    0.25
P(W ) 0.20
P(W  E ) 0.05
b.) P(W / E )    0.33
P( E ) 0.15
c.) P( E  W )  P( E)  P(W )  P( E  W )   0.15  0.20  0.05  0.30 .

Example 5.28 The distribution of Favor and Not Favor responses of MSU-IIT students
concerning the issue on tuition fee increase is given in the table below.
Favor Not Favor
Male 140 460
Female 40 260
If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that a student is:
a.) a female?
b.) a male or not favor?
c.) a male who is in favor?
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Solutions: Let F be the event of selecting a female student, M be an event of selecting a

male student, NV be the event of selecting a student with a “Not Favor” opinion,
and V be the event of selecting a student with a “Favor” opinion Then,
260  40 300 1
a.) P (F )     0.33 .
900 900 3
b.) P(M  NV )  P(M)  P(NV )  P(M  NV )
140  460 460  260 460
  
900 900 900
600 720 460 860 43
      0.96 .
900 900 900 900 45
c.) P(M  V )  P(M)  P(V / M)
140  460 140
 
900 600
600 140 140
    0.16 .
900 600 900

5.6.3.3 Bayes‟ Rule

Bayes‟ Rule is an extension of the conditional probability and the general rule of
multiplication. Here we assume a group of events which are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive, as defined earlier. Denote these events as B1 , B2 ,....Bn . Further, suppose that
another event A is defined on the sample space and since the B‟s are exhaustive, A must
intersect with one or more of the B‟s. Thus one way to obtain the probability of A is:
n n
P ( A)   P( A  Bi )   P( A / Bi )P(Bi )
i 1 i 1

This is known as the theorem of total probability or the rule of elimination.

But if the problem is changed a bit so that A is known to have occurred, how does
one obtain the probability that any of the Bi ‟s also occurred? This probability can then be
solved using the Bayes‟ Rule as given in the formula below.
P( A / Bi ) P( Bi )
P( Bi / A) 
P( A / B1 ) P( B1 )  P( A / B2 ) P( B2 )    P( A / Bn ) P( Bn )
where i  1, 2,, n .

Example 5.29 There are two boxes, the first box containing 1 black marble (B) and 3 white
marbles (W) and the second box containing 2 black marbles (B) and 4 white marbles (W). A
box is selected at random and a marble is drawn from the selected box. Find the following:
a.) What is the probability that the marble is black?
b.) Given that the marble is black, what is the probability that it came from the
second box?
c.) Given that the marble is white, what is the probability that it came from the first
box?
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

Solutions:
a.) P( B)  P( B / 1st box)  P(1st box)  P( B / 2nd box)  P(2nd box)
1 1 2 1 1 1 14
        0.2917
4 2 6 2 8 6 48

P( B / 2nd box ) P(2nd box)

b.) P(2nd box / B) 
P(B)
2 1

 6 2  0.5714
0.2917

P(W / 1st box ) P(1st box)

c.) P(1st box / W ) 
P(W / 1st box ) P(1st box)  P(W / 2nd box ) P(2nd box)
3 1

4 2  0.5294 .
3  1   4  1 
 4 2   6 2 
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

EXERCISES ON CHAPTER 5

I. FPC / Permutation / Combination

1. In a political-science survey, a voter is classified according to sex, socio-economic status
and political party. Given the following categories below, find the number of ways a voter
can be classified.
Sex : Male or Female
Socio-Economic Status : Poor, Average or Rich
Political Coalition : Lakas , Genuine Opposition or Liberal Party
2. In how many ways can 3 persons have different birthdays?
3. If a group consisting of a CASS, CBA, CED, CSM, COE, SCS and SET students are asked to
group themselves by two, how many of these includes the CASS student?

4. A drug for the relief of asthma can be purchased from five different manufacturers in
liquid, tablet, or capsule form, all of which come in regular and extra strength. In how
many different ways can a doctor prescribe the drug for a patient suffering from asthma?

5. How many different sums of money can be formed by taking two of the following coins:
5¢, 10¢, 25¢, 50¢, and P1?
6. In a Math 31 exam, a Stat Faculty wishes to arrange the chairs of her 5 students such
that her 2 notorious students, who are always caught copying, will not sit together. In
how many ways can he do this?
7. How many arrangements of the letters of the word LOGARITHM begin with a vowel and
end with a consonant?
8. From 4 automotive mechanics and 3 civil engineers, a committee of 3 will be organized.
How many committees can be organized consisting of 2 auto mechanics and 1 civil
engineer?
9. How many even numbers of 4 different digits each can be formed from digits 3, 5, 6, 7,
and 9? How many odd numbers?
10. How many ways can 4 black, 3 yellow and 2 blue t-shirts be hanged in a wire of 9
hangers?
11. Five ladies were selected from 12 candidates for Miss Iligan City. How many ways can
this selection be made assuming that they have distinct personalities?

12. From a shelf of 20 books in five areas: 5 in Math, 7 in Biology, 4 in English, and 4 in
Education, how many ways can we select 3 books in Math, 4 Biology books, 2 books in
English and 3 books in Education?
13. In how many ways can Kris make a bracelet out of the 10 different colorful beads?
 PROBABILITY AND COUNTING TECHNIQUES

II. Sample Space / Event / Probability

1. If P( A)  0.18 , P(B)  0.35 and P( A  B)  P( AB)  0.07 , solve the following:
a.) P( A  B)
b.) P( A / B)
c.) P ( A )

2. An experiment consists of asking 2 politicians if they are in favor of former president

Estrada‟s home arrest. Use “N” for no, “Y“ for yes and “U“ for undecided.
a.) Determine the number of elements and list the elements in the sample space S.
b.) List all the elements of the following events and find its probability.
 F = event that only 1 politician is in favor
 A = event that at least 1 politician is against
 U = event that at most 1 politician is undecided.
3. A box contains chicks, some of which are infected with Disease A, some with Disease B,
and the rest with Disease C. Two chicks are taken out of the box at random.
a.) Give a sample space for this experiment
b.) How many points in the sample space correspond to the event E1 of selecting 2
chicks infected with the same disease?
c.) How many points correspond to the event E2 of selecting chicks with different
diseases?
d.) How many correspond to the event E3 of drawing chicks infected with A and B?
e.) How many correspond to the event E4 of drawing chicks infected with A or B?

4. One bag contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls; another contains 2 white balls and 5
black balls. If one ball is drawn from each bag, find the probability that
a.) both are white b.) both are black c.) one is white and one is black

5. Fifty balls are numbered 1 to 50, placed in a box and mixed thoroughly. If a ball is
picked at random, what is the probability that
a.) its number is divisible by 6?
b.) its number ends in 2?
c.) its number is divisible by 6 or ends in 2?
6. From a box containing 5 blue balls and 3 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession.
What is the probability that all 3 are of the same color if:
a.) there is replacement?
b.) there is no replacement?

7. Refer to the contingency table below. What is the probability that an individual
Marital Status
Place of Residence
Divorce Married
Large City 50 50
Small Town 20 80
a.) is divorced?
b.) is divorced given that the individual lives in a small town?
c.) lives in a large city and is married?
d.) is either married, lives in a small town, or both?