Chapter 1 Introduction To Risk
Chapter 1 Introduction To Risk
INTRODUCTION TO RISK
The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away
that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously
thus change, and subsequent market reactions occur very quickly.
Learning outcomes
1.1 RISK
Safety in all things we do, personal or business wise begins with an understanding of risk and risk
management. Choices made in life contain risks, which can be minimized, but are not unavoidable. Even
innocent actions have risks because of unforeseen events. 1
Therefore, keep in mind the following three principles:
i. Risk arises in some form in virtually all of life’s activities.
ii. It is important not to ignore risk or be frightened by it.
iii. Systematic methods to assess and handle risk can be developed.
Risk and risk management is an inescapable part of economic activity. People generally manage their
affairs to be as happy and secure as their environment and resources will allow. But regardless of how
carefully these affairs are managed, there is risk because the outcome, whether good or bad, is seldom
predictable with complete certainty. There is risk inherent in nearly everything we do. 2
This chapter will focus on economic and financial risk, particularly as it relates to investment
management.
All businesses and investors manage risk, whether consciously or not, in the choices they make. At its
core, business and investing are about allocating resources and capital to chosen risks. In their decision
process, within an environment of uncertainty, these organizations may take steps to avoid some risks,
pursue the risks that provide the highest rewards, and measure and mitigate their exposure to these risks
as necessary.
1
scitation.org (2021). “An Introduction to Risk and Risk Management”, accessed at https://aip.scitation.org. on June 4, 2023.
2
cfainstitute.org (2023). “Introduction to Risk Management”. Accessed at https://www.cfainstitute.org, June 4, 2023 .
1
What is risk? In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. 3 Risk involves
uncertainty about the effects or implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value
(such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable
consequences.4
Various definitions of risk have been offered by different groups. The international standard definition of
risk for common understanding in different applications is "effect of uncertainty on objectives".5
Objectives can have different aspects (such as financial, health and safety, and environmental goals) and
can apply at different levels (such as strategic, organization-wide, project, product and process). Risk is
often expressed in terms of a combination of the consequences of an event (including changes in
circumstances) and the associated likelihood of occurrence. Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of
deficiency of information related to, understanding or knowledge of, an event, its consequence, or
likelihood.6
The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even
the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas (business, economics, environment, finance,
information technology, health, insurance, safety, security, etc.). Risk is often characterized by reference
to potential events and consequences or a combination of these. It implies future uncertainty about
deviation from expected earnings or expected outcome.
In finance, risk refers to the degree of uncertainty and/or potential financial loss inherent in an investment
decision. Thus, risk is defined in financial terms as the chance that an outcome or investment's actual
gains will differ from an expected outcome or return. Risk includes the possibility of losing some or all of
an original investment.7 These statements are the concepts of financial risk.
The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Guide 73 provides basic vocabulary to develop
common understanding on risk management concepts and terms across different applications. ISO Guide
73:2009 defines risk as: effect of uncertainty on objectives. This definition was developed by an
international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand
subject matter experts. It was first adopted in 2002. Its complexity reflects the difficulty of satisfying
fields that use the term risk in different ways. Some restrict the term to negative impacts ("downside
risks"), while others include positive impacts ("upside risks"). ISO 31000:2018 "Risk management -
Guidelines" uses the same definition with a simpler set of notes. 8
Risk is not just a matter of fate. It is something that organizations can actively manage with their
decisions, within a risk management framework. Risk is an integral part of the business or investment
process. Even in the earliest models of modern portfolio theory, such as mean–variance portfolio
optimization and the capital asset pricing model, investment return is linked directly to risk but requires
that risk be managed optimally.
The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest
rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important
3
"Risk". Cambridge Dictionary.
4
Glossary" (PDF). Society for Risk Analysis. Retrieved 13 April 2020.
5
"Guide 73:2009 Risk Management - Vocabulary". ISO
6
"Guide 73:2009 Risk Management - Vocabulary". ISO.
7
What is Risk? https://investor.org
8
"ISO 31000:2018 Risk Management - Guidelines". ISO.
2
to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk
management.
Proper identification and measurement of risk, and keeping risks aligned with the goals of the enterprise
are key factors in managing businesses and investments. Good risk management results in a higher
chance of a preferred outcome, more value for the company or portfolio or more utility for the individual. 9
Every saving and investment product has different risks and returns. The differences include:
a. how readily investors can get their money when they need it,
b. how fast their money will grow, and
c. how safe their money will be.
In general, as investment risks rise, investors seek higher returns to compensate themselves for taking
such risks. Risk measures the uncertainty that an investor is willing to take to realize a gain from an
investment.10 Quantifiably, risk is usually assessed by considering historical behaviors and outcomes.
Portfolio managers need to be familiar with risk management not only to improve the portfolio’s risk–
return outcome, but also because of two other ways in which they use risk management at an enterprise
level.11 First, they help to manage their own companies that have their own enterprise risk issues. Second,
many portfolio assets are claims on companies that have risks. Portfolio managers need to evaluate the
companies’ risks and how those companies are addressing them.
9
cfainstitute.org (2023). “Introduction to Risk Management”. Accessed at https://www.cfainstitute.org, June 4, 2023 .
10
What is Risk? Definition of Risk, Risk Meaning, Indiatimes.com, https://economictimes.indiatimes.com.
11
Ibid.
12
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "Investment Risk, Explained, https://www.finra.com
3
the marketplace with the potential to take away market share from a company. 13 Investors often
use diversification to manage unsystematic risk by investing in a variety of assets.
13
Ibid (same in 3)
14
Ibit (same in 3)
15
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "Investment Risk, Explained, https://www.finra.com
16
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "In Times of Financial Stress, What Typically Happens to the Difference Between Interest
Rates on Corporate Bonds and U.S. Treasury Bonds?”, https://www.frbsf.org.
17
Ibid
4
particular country. This type of risk is most often seen in emerging markets or countries that have
a severe deficit.
5) Foreign-Exchange Risk: When investing in foreign countries, it’s important to consider the fact
that currency exchange rates can change the price of the asset as well. Foreign exchange risk (or
exchange rate risk) applies to all financial instruments that are in a currency other than your
domestic currency.18 As an example, if you live in the U.S. and invest in a Canadian stock in
Canadian dollars, even if the share value appreciates, you may lose money if the Canadian dollar
depreciates in relation to the U.S. dollar.
6) Interest Rate Risk: Interest rate risk is the risk that an investment's value will change due to a
change in the absolute level of interest rates, the spread between two rates, in the shape of the
yield curve, or in any other interest rate relationship. This type of risk affects the value of bonds
more directly than stocks and is a significant risk to all bondholders. 19 As interest rates rise, bond
prices in the secondary market fall—and vice versa.
Reinvestment risk is related to interest rate risk. It is the possibility that an investor may not be
able to reinvest the cash flows received from an investment (such as interest or dividends) at the
same rate of return as the original investment. Reinvestment risk is particularly relevant for fixed
income investments like bonds, where interest rates may change over time. Investors can manage
reinvestment risk by laddering their investments, diversifying their portfolio, or considering
investments with different maturity dates.
7) Political Risk: Political risk is the risk an investment’s returns could suffer because of political
instability or changes in a country. This type of risk can stem from a change in government,
legislative bodies, other foreign policy makers, or military control. 20 Also known as geopolitical
risk, the risk becomes more of a factor as an investment’s time horizon gets longer.
8) Counterparty Risk: Counterparty risk is the likelihood or probability that one of those involved
in a transaction might default on its contractual obligation. Counterparty risk can exist in credit,
investment, and trading transactions, especially for those occurring in over-the-counter (OTC)
markets. Financial investment products such as stocks, options, bonds, and derivatives carry
counterparty risk.21
9) Liquidity Risk: Liquidity risk is associated with an investor’s ability to transact their investment
for cash.22 Typically, investors will require some premium for illiquid assets which compensates
them for holding securities over time that cannot be easily liquidated.
10) Model Risk: This type of risk arises from the use of financial models to make investment
decisions, evaluate risks, or price financial instruments. Model risk can occur if the model is
based on incorrect assumptions, data, or methodologies, leading to inaccurate predictions and
potentially adverse financial consequences. Model risk can be managed by validating and
periodically reviewing financial models, as well as using multiple models to cross-check
predictions and outcomes.
18
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "Investment Risk, Explained, https://www.finra.com
19
Ibid
20
Ibit (same as ref 10)
21
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. "Counterparty Risk”. https://www.occ.gov
22
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "Investment Risk, Explained, https://www.finra.com
5
1.3 RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK23
Every business must contend with risks, some chosen deliberately and others an inherent part of the
environment in which the business operates. Founding a business, launching products onto the market,
employing people, collecting data, building systems—these are all essential to growing a successful
business. They are also all sources of risk. But a business doesn’t thrive for long if it fails to balance risk-
taking with risk mitigation. That’s the role of risk management.
6
sometimes referred to as the risk universe. It’s important to systematically identify all possible
risks because it reduces the likelihood that potential sources of risk are missed. When identifying
risk, it’s also important to not just think about the risks that the business currently faces, but those
that might emerge in the future, as well. As technology evolves and businesses reconfigure, the
risk universe changes too.
2) Risk Analysis: Once risks have been identified, the next step is to analyze their likelihood and
potential impact. How exposed is the business to a particular risk? What is the potential cost of a
risk becoming a reality? An organization might divide risks into “serious, moderate, or minor” or
“high, medium, or low” depending on their potential for disruption.
The exact categorization method is less important than the recognition that some risks present a
more pressing threat than others. Risk analysis helps businesses to prioritize mitigation. For
example, a risk might have a potentially serious impact, but a very low likelihood. The business
might choose to deprioritize mitigation compared to a risk with a high cost and a high probability
of occurring.
3) Response Planning: Response planning answers the question: What are we going to do about it?
For example, if during identification and analysis, you realized that the business is at risk of
phishing attacks because its employees are unaware of email security best practices, your
response plan might include security awareness training.
4) Risk Mitigation: Risk mitigation is the implementation of your response plan. It is the action
your business and its employees take to reduce exposure. Following our previous example, the
implementation might involve security awareness training, the creation of on boarding material to
educate employees, and so on. The organization must design controls that reduce the risk down to
appropriate levels. These controls must be tested to ensure they are suitably designed and
operating effectively.
5) Risk Monitoring: Risks are not static; they change over time. The potential impact and
probability of occurrence change, and what was once considered a minor risk can grow into one
that presents a significant threat to the business and its revenue. Risk monitoring is the process of
“keeping an eye” on the situation through regular risk assessments.
6) Risk governance: Risk governance is the process of ensuring all of a company's assets, including
employees, perform appropriately to help minimise risks. This can include assigning specific
duties or authority to employees, requiring multiple levels of approval for certain tasks and
regularly providing workshops to educate employees on risk management and internal policies.
Risk governance also helps ensure that there's a hierarchy for handling and reporting risks. For
example, company executives may hire a risk management professional to handle the risks of a
business, providing them with executive control of the process and budget.
It’s important to understand that risk management is not a one-off event. It is a process that recurs through
the life of an organization as it endeavors to anticipate threats and proactively handle them before they
have an adverse impact.
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identifying, analysing and mitigating key risks, companies can make more informed decisions and
minimise negative financial impacts while increasing their gains. For example, if a company wants to
enter a new market, understanding all the risks associated with that decision can help the company's
leaders determine if it's the appropriate time to do so. An RMF provides a written plan for risk
management, which can help standardise processes across a company.
A business taking on too much risk without a reliable risk management strategy can affect its reputation
and credit rating. This may then lead to fewer investors, increased layoffs and the sale of assets. It's also
important to consider the effects of decisions on a community or environment, to ensure compliance with
relevant regulations.
8
5) Transfer - Risk transfer is the process of transferring incurred risks to another entity to pay for or
mitigate those risks. For example, insurance companies act as a conduit for risk transfer, in which
a business pays a premium, so insurance companies pay for any damages and liabilities in
specific scenarios. The insurance company earns a monthly or annual premium for taking on a
company's risk. This is a common strategy for risks that a company can't avoid and have large
financial consequences. These risks often result in expenses that may be larger than years' worth
of premium payments.
Example of an RMF: Helder Metals, Ltd. produces heavy metals for construction materials and other
products. The company creates an RMF to identify and mitigate the core risks of producing and selling
these materials. They identify an inherent risk in producing heavy metals for manufacturing employees,
so the company purchases employee injury insurance and implements rigorous safety policies to protect
from potential lawsuits. The company adopts a risk governance hierarchy, assigning the production
manager to lead a risk management team on the production floor that inspects equipment for defects and
ensures employees are following proper procedures. 26
The level of sophistication is an important factor in the determination of the risk of a threat actor. Highly
sophisticated threat actors are more likely to be successful if an attack is launched. Less sophisticated
attackers have a lower probability of an attack being successful should it be launched. 28
Vadali (2023) in his article on Internal Audit, Risk Controls and Compliance cited that the following
levels of risk management sophistication:29
Level 1: Compliance-driven culture - the organization's primary focus is on meeting legal regulatory
requirements for risk management.
Level 2: Risk-averse culture - the organization is risk-averse and takes a cautious approach to risk
management, focusing on avoiding risks rather than taking them.
Level 3: Risk-neutral culture - the organization takes a neutral approach to risk, focusing on
identifying and managing risks in a systematic way without taking unnecessary risks.
Level 4: Risk-seeking culture - the organization is willing to take risks in pursuit of opportunities and
growth.
Level 5: Risk-intelligent culture - the organization embeds risk management into its decision- making
processes, encouraging an open and transparent dialogue about risk throughout the
organization. It also encourages an adaptive approach to managing risk, learning from past
experiences, and continuously improving risk management processes.
26
KirkpatrickPrice (2021). “The 5 Components of Risk Management”. Accessed at https://kirkpatrickprice.com, on June 6, 2023.
27
Aon (------). “Creating a More Sophisticated Risk Management Culture”. Accessed at https://insights-north-america.aon.com on June 20,
2023.
28
29
Ramesh Chandran Vadali (2023). Levels Of Risk Sophistication. LinkedIn. https://mg.linkedin.com.
9
Organizations that follow a formal process of risk management are generally more resilient than those
that do not, and they are better able to navigate crises because the process is embedded within their
corporate culture to make sure that they're proactively trying to identify emerging risks regularly.
Companies with a more mature and governed risk program are likely to fare better in volatile times and
more quickly gain consensus on steps their organization should take to address and mitigate problems as
well as to unite stakeholders from across the risk, finance, legal and operations suite on strategies for the
future.
While developing a sophisticated risk management culture won't happen overnight, these three steps can
get you started down the path of a more strategic approach.
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2) Prioritize Board Involvement
Board involvement requires strong leadership across the organization. A senior-level executive should
facilitate the risk management processes and development with the board. That leader should
transparently communicate the risks faced by the organization routinely to the board and involve all key
stakeholders in developing risk management policies and strategies.
The volatile world demands more board involvement in risk management. Increasingly, boards of
directors are obligated, in the case of regulated entities, or challenged to know the significant risks their
organizations face and how these risks are managed.
Risk maturity at the board level affects financial performance. For example, insurers providing directors
and officers (D&O) insurance, a type of management liability insurance covering directors and officers
for claims made against them while serving on a board, consider the board's approach to risk management
as part of their underwriting process. Aon has found a correlation between higher risk maturity and lower
D&O insurance premium rates over time.
Financial Risk is one of the major concerns of every business across fields and geographies. Before
understanding the techniques to control risk and perform risk management, it is very important to realize
what risk is and what the types of risks are.
Financial risk refers to the likelihood of losing money on a business or investment decision. Risks
associated with finances can result in capital losses for individuals and businesses. There are several
financial risks, such as credit, liquidity, and operational risks. In other words, financial risk is a danger
that can translate into the loss of capital. It relates to the odds of money loss.
In case of a financial risk, there is a possibility that a company’s cash flow might prove insufficient to
30
Simplilearn (2023). “What Is Financial Risks and Its Types? Everything You Need”. Accessed at
https://www.simplilearn.com › Project Management, on June 6, 2023.
11
satisfy its obligations. Some common financial risks are credit, operational, foreign investment, legal,
equity, and liquidity risks.
In government sectors, financial risk implies the inability to control monetary policy and or other debt
issues. Learn more about how financial risk is associated with different sectors, be it business,
government, market, or individuals.
As shown in Figure 1, financial risk can be classified into various types such as market risk, credit risk,
liquidity risk, operational risk, and legal risk.
1) Market Risk: This type of risk arises due to the movement in prices of financial instrument.
Market risk can be classified as Directional Risk and Non-Directional Risk. Directional risk is
caused due to movement in stock price, interest rates and more. Non-Directional risk, on the other
hand, can be volatility risks.
2) Credit Risk: This type of risk arises when one fails to fulfill their obligations towards their
counterparties. Credit risk can be classified into Sovereign Risk and Settlement Risk. Sovereign
risk usually arises due to difficult foreign exchange policies. Settlement risk, on the other hand,
arises when one party makes the payment while the other party fails to fulfill the obligations.
3) Liquidity Risk: This type of risk arises out of an inability to execute transactions. Liquidity risk
can be classified into Asset Liquidity Risk and Funding Liquidity Risk. Asset Liquidity risk arises
12
either due to insufficient buyers or insufficient sellers against sell orders and buys orders
respectively.
4) Operational Risk: This type of risk arises out of operational failures such as mismanagement or
technical failures. Operational risk can be classified into Fraud Risk and Model Risk. Fraud risk
arises due to the lack of controls and Model risk arises due to incorrect model application.
5) Legal Risk: This type of financial risk arises out of legal constraints such as lawsuits. Whenever
a company needs to face financial losses out of legal proceedings, it is a legal risk.
13
marketplace’s valuation as a whole. It gives insights into the market on the rise vs. the market in decline.
So, volatility risk can lead to steep price swings in stock market shares.
Market interest rate changes and defaults can pose financial risks. Defaults occur mainly in the debt or
bond market when issuers or companies fail to pay their debt obligations. Defaults harm investors
severely. At the same time, changes in the market interest rate tend to push individual securities into
unprofitability for investors. They are forced into lower-paying debt securities or negative returns.
Asset-backed risks arise when asset-backed securities become volatile when the value of the underlying
securities also changes. A common category of asset-backed can be understood by the following example.
A borrower who took money for a certain period pays off the debt early. This early payment ends the
income stream from repayments. It also gets rid of the possible income from significant changes in
interest rates.
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buyers.
Funding/ Cash flow liquidity risk: The possibility that a company might not have the necessary
capital to pay its debt. Thereby it gets forced to default and harms stakeholders.
Individuals are also exposed to speculative risks wherein a profit or gain has uncertain success. An
investor’s improper research before investing leads to chances of speculative risks. It happens when they
reach too far for gains or invest a significantly large portion of their net worth into a particular
investment.
Do you have an inflow of foreign currencies? You can also be exposed to currency financial risks as the
following factors affect your calculated finances:
Interest rate changes
Monetary policy changes
Changes in prices due to market differences
Political changes
Natural calamities
Diplomatic changes
Economic conflicts
35
Ibid.
36
Ibid (Simplilearn, 2023).
15
underlying business, such as the firm’s earnings and assets.
Technical analysis: Evaluates securities via statistics. It considers historical returns, share prices,
trade volumes, and other performance data.
Quantitative analysis: Evaluates a company’s historical performance using specific financial ratio
calculations.
Statistical and numerical analysis: Identifies potential risks using statistical methods.
If you monitor financial risk via any of the analysis techniques mentioned above, ensure that you analyze
trends over a long time. This way, you will better grasp the trends of fluctuations and progress towards a
better financial goal. It is important to understand that a risk history does not always imply a future risk
too.
Completely eliminating financial risks can be difficult and expensive but mitigating the risks is easier and
inexpensive. An individual or a company can neutralize financial risks by diversifying investments,
holding the right amount of insurance or sufficient funds for emergencies. Different income streams are
also a good option for tackling financial risks.
Why Is Financial Risk Important? Understanding, evaluating, and mitigating financial risk is crucial for
an organization’s long-term success. Financial risk often comes as a major hurdle in the path of
accomplishing finance-related objectives such as paying loans timely, carrying a healthy debt amount,
and delivering products on time. So, completely comprehending the causes of financial risks and adopting
the right measures to prevent it can help a company yield better returns.
Is Financial Risk Systematic or Unsystematic? Financial risk is an unsystematic risk because it does not
impact every company. It is specific to each company as it depends on an organization’s operations and
capital structure.
37
Ibid (Simplilearn, 2023).
16
dwindling revenue strain amid looming financial obligations after a disappointing holiday season. It also
faced difficulty selling its properties. This situation is an example of the liquidity risk associated with real
estate.
In November 2018, the debt holders Angelo Gordon and Solus Alternative Asset Management took
control of the bankrupt company and created plans to revive the chain. In February 2019, a new company
staffed with ex-Toys “R” Us execs, Tru Kids Brands, reported that it would relaunch the brand and
opened two new stores that year. Recently, Macy’s has partnered with WHP Global, and together they are
working on bringing back the Toys “R” Us brand.
17