Us Estrategia 2020 INT
Us Estrategia 2020 INT
Us Estrategia 2020 INT
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U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea
Perspective
-
Madeline McLaughlin
October 2020 i
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BOARD OF DIRECTORS
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American Security and the Oceans In this Report:
This paper discusses the importance of working with allies as the US seeks to strengthen its
position in the South China Sea. It examines the benefit of increasing joint exercises with
India, Japan, and Australia, as well as the possibility of assisting regional states to increase
their own defensive capabilities. The US has ceded leadership in the region by withdrawing
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and failing to ratify the UN Convention on the Law of
the Sea. Now, as it seeks to engage diplomatically with ASEAN states, it will have to focus
on following through in its diplomatic efforts and seek new leadership opportunities in the
region. It will also be necessary for the US to counter China’s narrative in the South China
Sea by creating its own narrative—clearly conveying the importance of laws and norms in
the international community.
Interact:
Discuss the the South China Sea with the author on Twitter @MaddieMcLaughln
Learn more about ASP at @amsecproject
IN BRIEF
• Secretary Pompeo released a statement in July that strengthened the US’ stance on
the South China Sea dispute and denounced China’s actions in the region.
• Working with allies and other states interested in the region will be key as the US
seeks to increase its presence in the South China Sea.
• The US should engage in more joint exercises with India, Japan, and Australia.
Additionally, the US can be instrumental in assisting ASEAN states to develop their
own defensive capabilities.
• Public diplomacy will be an important aspect of the US’ strategy as it seeks to portray
a law-based international system as the alternative to China’s way of conducting
international affairs.
Madeline McLaughlin is the National Security Strategy intern at ASP. She graduated from the
University of Utah in 2019 with a Fine Arts degree and a political science minor.
www.AmericanSecurityProject.org
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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT
In the face of previous aggression, the US has released statements3,4,5 expressing displeasure with Chinese actions.
In light of this, Secretary Pompeo’s statement does not necessarily represent a completely new strategy for the
US in the South China Sea. Instead, it is a strengthening of the current US position, aligning the US’ official
stance in the region with its actions. The stark language signals to China and others interested in the South China
Sea dispute that the US intends to be more actively engaged in the region. International reaction to the US’
statement was mixed, with some publications questioning whether this policy stance would actually mean more
engagement by the US in the South China Sea, or whether it is an empty statement. Others, apparently bolstered
by a stronger US stance, have also taken new stands against China’s actions in the South China Sea. Australia filed
a declaration with the UN that echoed much of the language used by Pompeo to clarify the US’ position. Malaysia
also recently spoke out through a diplomatic note to the UN6 when China responded negatively to a submission
by the Malaysian government to UN Convention on the Law of the Sea claiming the existence of overlapping
territories in the South China Sea. Following similar lines, the note rejected China’s claims in the South China Sea,
particularly those associated with the Nine-Dash Line.
2
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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT
Soon after Pompeo’s statement in July, the Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell noted that “nothing is off
the table”21 for the US going forward. US officials have mentioned the likelihood of more future FONOPs and
the possibility of sanctions.22 While there is a chance that these measures could deter China from progressing
further with its aggressive behavior, the success of any US action in the South China Sea depends largely on how
it is carried out. Unilateral US actions are unlikely to have a strong enough effect on China. In the past this has
largely been due to China’s insistence that the US has no stake in the South China Sea dispute and should not be
involved. Now, as relations between the US and China have taken a sharp downward spiral in the last year, ignoring
unilateral US actions is a more viable option than ever before. Recognizing that this issue is of vital importance to
many US partners and allies, the US should act as a leader in the region by working towards creating a consensus
among other states affected by China’s tactics in the South China Sea. With this in mind, the US strategy in the
region should focus on:
• Multilateral engagement.
• Building up the defense capabilities of allies.
• Strengthening diplomatic ties.
• Encouraging a united front to discourage China from following its current course, both diplomatically
and through joint military exercises.
• Creating an attractive alternative to China’s way of conducting international affairs.
focus towards forward operating bases in the short- to medium-term until more F-35 capable ships are upgraded
or built. Traditionally, this would have meant using the five US bases in the Philippines.24 However, with the
instability of the US-Philippine security pact and President Duterte’s interest in working with China, this may no
longer be a viable option. If bases in the Philippines cannot be used, the US will need to look to other states in the
region that may align more closely with the US in its stance against China.
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However, finding an alternative will likely prove difficult because of the regional states’ unwillingness to act too
strongly against China. Increasing cooperation with forces from other nations is another way that the US can
address aspects of this unexpected setback. The loss of the ship impacts the US’ ability to conduct forward-deployed
assurance. While the naval capabilities of Australia and Japan may not be as advanced as those of the US, working
collaboratively to continuously re-establish the freedom of any nation to conduct exercises in international waters
eases the burden that the US Navy has been bearing largely alone. Already this summer, the US, Australia, and
Japan have conducted a joint exercise in the South China Sea. The commander of the Australian Joint Task Group
stated that “The opportunity to work alongside the US and the Japanese is invaluable. The combined tasking
between our navies demonstrates a high degree of interoperability and capability.”25 An informal security alliance26
between the US, India, Australia, and Japan, known as the Quad, has been the basis for joint exercises in the South
China Sea in previous years. Revitalizing a regional security strategy among the Quad will allow those states to
share in the responsibility of hedging against China’s claims. It
will also enable the states to send a stronger united message to
China than any one state could send alone.
The US can also be instrumental in assisting ASEAN states in building up their own defensive capabilities. This
can be done through programs designed to assist countries in further developing their security forces, such as the
Maritime Security Initiative29 or International Military Education and Training (IMET).30 As of the end of July,
the Vietnamese government had accepted a loan to boost its defense capabilities by building six patrol vessels.31
As these states improve their defense capabilities, they gain self-sufficiency and depend less on the US. Actively
prioritizing ASEAN states’ defense also dismantles China’s portrayal of ASEAN member states as being content
with its actions in the region.32 However, the US should also be cautious when determining which states to
work with in this capacity. Once a state’s military is trained, the US will not have control over how those military
capabilities are used. In Burma, the military has been carrying out atrocities against the Rohingya minority.
Because of this, Congress has ensured that Burma cannot participate in the IMET program by passing the Asia
Reassurance Initiative Act of 2018, which prohibits funding for the IMET and Foreign Military Financing in
Burma through fiscal year 2023.33 This ensures that IMET training from the US cannot be used by the Burmese
military to perform human rights violations.34 Going forward, it will be vital that the US carefully consider current
circumstances of each state and possible future consequences before starting IMET in any of the regional states.
4
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A second pressing issue is the upcoming election for the judge’s position on the International Tribunal for the Law
of the Sea, which is responsible for settling maritime disputes. China is currently pushing for a candidate from its
own country, which would likely further complicate issues in the South China Sea. All members of UNCLOS will
have the chance to vote. However, this does not include the US because it has yet to ratify the convention.38 As a
result, the US is left to attempt to affect the proceedings of UNCLOS from the outside. Dialogue with states before
the upcoming UNCLOS elections is the only way for the US to push for other candidates. As China continues
to push for global influence, the US should counter it by strengthening the US’ relationships with other nations
and its own influence in the international community. To do this, the US will have to better follow through on
diplomatic efforts like TPP and seek new opportunities for leadership in the region – ratifying UNCLOS is a good
place to start.
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Combatting Disinformation
In a virtual meeting,39 China’s State Counselor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi painted the US as the peace-
disrupting force in the South China Sea. He claimed that:
• Relations in the region have reached a state of stability.
• Code of Conduct negotiations have been progressing.
• The US is seeking to disrupt the relations between China and other states in the region to further isolate
the country.
• The Chinese government is on the side of peace and willing to move forward with Code of Conduct
negotiations to ensure that peace is established in the South China Sea.
This narrative, of a peaceful China and a meddling US has been spread by the country’s government officials,
newspapers, and in online discussions.40,41 While China has continued pushing this narrative, its actions have
indicated different objectives, as confirmed by its continuing aggression in interactions with ASEAN states.
In order to continue building confidence in the US and allies’ intentions abroad, the US will have to actively
combat this characterization of its motives. Frequently, comments by the people of other nations have echoed
China’s rhetoric. These discussions call into question the US’ motives, believing the US’ increased interest in the
region can be attributed to the upcoming election or that it views the South China Sea as just another front on
which to combat China. Clearly conveying the US’ objectives in the region to foreign publics involved in the
dispute can lead to trust, but only if the US acts according to its stated objectives. In addition to breaking down
China’s narrative, the US should be actively creating a narrative of its own – one that emphasizes the importance
of international law and draws stark contrasts between an international order based on laws and China’s way. There
is a certain level of appeal in China’s way, to counter this will require a careful crafting of the US alternative that
clearly defines the benefits of the current international system. The US should also continue its public diplomacy
efforts through programs such as the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative and the Seeds for the Future small
grants program,42 to signal its ongoing interest in the people of the region. Proving that the US is truly invested
in the future of the ASEAN countries can lead to more trust among foreign publics of the US’ intentions in the
South China Sea.
Conclusion
In order to effectively challenge China’s expansion in the South China Sea and ensure the future of a law-based
international system in maritime affairs, it is vital that the US shift its focus towards broader cooperation with
allies. The US should strive to strengthen not only its own position, but also the position, resolve, and capabilities
of other states affected by China’s actions. In order to accomplish these objectives, it will be necessary for the US
to:
• Collaborate more closely and frequently with the navies of other countries, particularly Japan, Australia,
and India.
• Assist states in the region to develop their own military capabilities.
• Strengthen relations with other states involved in the dispute through diplomacy.
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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT
Many of these strategies have been used by the US in the South China Sea before, with varying levels of success.
Now, as the US approaches the South China Sea from a firmer policy stance, combining the use of these strategies
with an increased focus on allies, both in the region and beyond, can lead to progress in the South China Sea.
Endnotes
1. “U.S. Positions in the South China Sea,” U.S. Department of State, 13 July 2019, https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-
claims-in-the-south-china-sea/, (accessed July 2020).
2. Ibid.
3. David R. Stilwell,“The South China Sea, Southeast Asia’s Patrimony, and Everybody’s Own Backyard,” U.S. Department of State,
https://www.state.gov/the-south-china-sea-southeast-asias-patrimony-and-everybodys-own-backyard/, (accessed July 2020).
4. Morgan Ortagus, “PRC’s Reported Sinking of a Vietnamese Vessel in the South China Sea,” U.S. Department of State, https://www.
state.gov/prcs-reported-sinking-of-a-vietnamese-fishing-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea/, (accessed July 2020).
5. Morgan Ortagus, “Chinese Coercion on Oil and Gas Activity on the South China Sea,” U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.
gov/chinese-coercion-on-oil-and-gas-activity-in-the-south-china-sea/, (accessed July 2020).
6. Tashny Sukumaran and Bhavan Jaipragas, “Malaysia rebukes Beijing as South China Sea ‘lawfare’ heats up,” South China Morning
Post, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3095406/malaysia-rebukes-beijing-south-china-sea-lawfare-heats, (July
2020).
8. “How much trade transits the South China Sea,” CSIS China Power, https://chinapower.csis.org/much-trade-transits-south-china-
sea/#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20Conference%20on,one%2Dthird%20of%20global%20shipping, (accessed July
2020).
9. Ibid.
10. Fu Ying, “Why China Says No to the Arbitration of the South China Sea,” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/10/
why-china-says-no-to-the-arbitration-on-the-south-china-sea/, (accessed August 2020).
11. “Part XV Settlement of Disputes,” United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea Agreement, https://www.un.org/depts/los/
convention_agreements/texts/unclos/part15.htm, (August 2020).
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(accessed August 2020).
13. “Remarks by Spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy on the Statement of the US Department of State on the South China Sea,”
Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the United States of America, http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zmgxss/t1797515.
htm#:~:text=On%20July%2013%2C%202020%2C%20the,(UNCLOS)%2C%20exaggerates%20the%20situation, (accessed
August 2020).
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14. AFP, “China Conducts Military Drills in South China Sea,” The Defense Post, https://www.thedefensepost.com/2020/07/30/china-
military-drills-south-china-sea/, (July 2020).
15. Kristin Huang, “South China Sea: Beijing reclassifies navigation area to increase control, experts say,” South China Morning Post,
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3095550/south-china-sea-beijing-reclassifies-navigation-area-increase,
(Accessed July 2020).
16. Eleanor Freund, “Freedom of Navigation in the South China Sea: A Practical Guide,” Belfer Center for Science and International
Affairs Special Report, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/freedom-navigation-south-china-sea-practical-guide, (Accessed July
2020).
17. Ibid.
18. (Nine FONOPs) - David B. Larter, “In challenging China’s claims in the South China Sea, the US Navy is getting more assertive,”
Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/05/in-challenging-chinas-claims-in-the-south-china-sea-the-us-navy-
is-getting-more-assertive/, (July 2020).
19. Geoff Ziezulwicz and Shawn Snow, “Navy conducts year’s first FONOP in South China Sea,” Defense News, https://www.navytimes.
com/news/your-navy/2020/01/28/navy-conducts-years-first-fonop-in-south-china-sea/, (accessed August 2020).
20. San LaGrone, “USS Bunker Hill Conducts 2nd South China Sea FONOP This Week,” Real Clear Defense, https://www.realcleardefense.
com/2020/04/30/uss_bunker_hill_conducts_2nd_south_china_sea_fonop_this_week_313265.html, (accessed August 2020).
21. “Online Event: Tenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Keynote and Session One,” CSIS, https://www.csis.org/events/online-
event-tenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference-keynote-and-session-one, (accessed July 2020).
22. Amanda Macias, “U.S. could sanction Chinese officials for illegal claims in South China Sea, diplomat says,” CNBC, https://www.
cnbc.com/2020/07/14/us-could-sanction-chinese-officials-over-south-china-sea-claims.html, (accessed August 2020).
23. Robert Farley, “The Burned Bonhomme Richard: Lasting Damage for the US Navy,” The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.
com/2020/07/the-burned-bonhomme-richard-lasting-damage-for-the-us-navy/, (accessed August 2020).
24. Dan Lamothe, “These are the bases the US will use near the South China Sea. China isn’t impressed,” The Washington Post, https://
www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2016/03/21/these-are-the-new-u-s-military-bases-near-the-south-china-sea-china-
isnt-impressed/, (accessed August 2020).
25. Jesse Johnson, “MSDF joins exercises with U.S. and Australia on doorstep of South China Sea,”
26. Derek Grossman, “The Quad Needs Broadening to Balance China – and Now’s the Time to Do It,” Rand Corporation, https://www.
rand.org/blog/2018/10/the-quad-needs-broadening-to-balance-china-and-nows.html, (accessed August 2020).
27. Adli Hazmi, “What is ‘ASEAN’ Way?” SEASIA, https://seasia.co/2020/01/21/what-is-asean-way, (accessed August 2020).
28. Jim Gomez, “ASEAN Takes Position vs China’s Vast Historical Sea Claims,” The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/asean-
takes-position-vs-chinas-vast-historical-sea-claims/, (accessed August 2020).
29. “Section 1263 Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Initiative (MSI),” Defense Security Cooperation Agency, https://www.dsca.mil/programs/
section-1263-indo-pacific-maritime-security-initiative-msi, (accessed August 2020).
30. “International Military Education & Training,” Defense Security Cooperation Agency, https://www.dsca.mil/programs/international-
military-education-training-imet, (accessed August 2020).
31. “Vietnam accepts US $348 mil loan to boost South China Sea defence,” FMT NEWS, https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/
world/2020/07/28/vietnam-accepts-us348-mil-loan-to-boost-south-china-sea-defence/, (accessed August 2020).
32. “Interview on Current China-US Relations Given by State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Xinhua News Agency,”
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33. “U.S. Relations with Burma: Key Issues in 2019,” Congressional Research Service, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF11068.pdf, (accessed
August 2020).
34. “Myanmar Rohingya: What you need to know about the crisis,” BBC News, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41566561,
(accessed August 2020).
35. Nguyen Minh Quang, “Saving the China-ASEAN South China Sea Code of Conduct,” The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.
com/2019/06/saving-the-china-asean-south-china-sea-code-of-conduct/, (accessed July 2020).
36. Li Kaisheng, “Manila’s termination of military pact will upset US meddling in South China Sea,” Global Times, https://www.
globaltimes.cn/content/1179439.shtml, (accessed July 2020).
37. Rahul Mishra, “China’s self-inflicted wounds in the South China Sea,” Japan Times, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/07/24/
commentary/world-commentary/chinas-self-inflicted-wounds-south-china-sea/#.Xx7xLPhKjR0, (accessed July 2020).
38. Ben Cardin, ”The South China Sea is the Reason the United States Must Ratify UNCLOS,” Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.
com/2016/07/13/the-south-china-sea-is-the-reason-the-united-states-must-ratify-unclos/, (accessed August 2020).
39. “State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi Had Virtual Meeting With Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin,” Ministry
of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1797959.shtml, (accessed July
2020).
40. “Interview on Current China-US Relations Given by State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Xinhua News Agency,”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1804328.shtml,
(accessed July 2020).
41. Shi Tian, “US exploiting S. China Sea differences to Contain China,” Global Times, https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1174399.
shtml, (accessed August 2020).
42. “The United States and ASEAN: An Enduring Partnership,” U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-
asean-an-enduring-partnership/, (accessed August 2020).
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