Expert Systems

• The expert systems are the computer applications developed to solve complex
problems in a particular domain, at the level of extra-ordinary human intelligence
and expertise.
• Expert systems are complex AI programs

• Characteristics of Expert Systems

▪ High performance
▪ Understandable
▪ Reliable
▪ Highly responsive
The expert systems are capable of −
✔ Advising
✔ Instructing and assisting human in decision making
✔ Demonstrating
✔ Deriving a solution
✔ Diagnosing
✔ Explaining
✔ Interpreting input
✔ Predicting results
✔ Justifying the conclusion
✔ Suggesting alternative options to a problem

Inabilities of expert system:

Substituting human decision makers
Possessing human capabilities
Producing accurate output for inadequate knowledge base
Refining their own knowledge
Architecture of Expert System
 Knowledge Base
• The data is collection of facts. The information is organized as data and facts about
the task domain. Data, information, and past experience combined together are termed
as knowledge.
• It has high-caliber, domain-specific expertise.
• To be intelligent, one must have knowledge. Any ES's ability to succeed mostly
hinges on its ability to gather extremely precise and accurate knowledge.
Components of Knowledge Base
The knowledge base of an ES is a store of both, factual and heuristic knowledge.
• Factual Knowledge − It is the information widely accepted by the Knowledge
Engineers and scholars in the task domain.
• Heuristic Knowledge − It is about practice, accurate judgement, one’s ability of
evaluation, and guessing.

Knowledge representation
It is the method used to organize and formalize the knowledge in the knowledge base. It
is in the form of IF-THEN-ELSE rules.
Knowledge Acquisition

• In artificial intelligence, knowledge acquisition is the process of gathering, selecting,

and interpreting information and experiences to create and maintain knowledge within a
specific domain. It is a key component of machine learning and knowledge-based
systems.

• There are many different methods of knowledge acquisition, including rule-based

systems, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy logic systems. The most
appropriate method for a given application depends on the nature of the problem and
the type of data available.

• In Expert systems method, experts in a particular field provide rules and knowledge to a
computer system, which can then be used to make decisions or solve problems in that
domain.
Inference Engine
• An response is given by an inference engine after it has analysed and interpreted the
data in the knowledge base.
• The inference engine enables the expert system to draw deductions from the rules in
the KB.

MYCIN
• Mycin is a computer program that was developed in the 1970s at Stanford University.
• One of the first expert systems, it was made specifically to identify and cure
infections in people.
• Mycin was written in the Lisp programming language, and used a rule-based system
to make decisions.
 Expert system and conventional Computers

Conventional System Expert System

• Use data for solution • Use knowledge for solution
• Knowledge is stored separately
• Data is stored along with the
in encoded form called
control program
knowledge base
• How and explanation modules • Capable of explaining that how
are absent a conclusion was reached
• Data forms can be numeric , • Knowledge can be in the form
alphabetic, audio, video etc. of rules , network , trees.
• Metadata may or may not be
• Meta Knowledge is present.
present.
Question Asked in Previous AI Paper:

Explain MYCIN based on following points ( 06 marks)

1.Domain
2.Knowledge representation
3.Inference mechanism
 Conditional Probability
• In mathematics, the Conditional Probability of event A is the probability that event A
will occur given that another event B has already occurred.
• In simple terms, p(A | B) is the probability of event A occurring, given that event, B
occurs.
• There are two types of event possibilities between A and B. They may be either
dependent events or independent events. Depending upon their type, there are two
different ways to calculate the conditional probability.

Given A and B are dependent events, the

conditional probability is calculated as P P(A
and B) = P(A) × P(B | A)

If A and B are independent events, then the

expression for conditional probability is given
by, P(A| B) = P(A) × P(B)
Independent Events

A juggler has seven red, five green, and four blue balls. During his stunt, he accidentally
drops a ball and doesn't pick it up. As he continues, another ball falls down. What is the
probability that the first ball that was dropped is blue, and the second ball is green?

As we know that the first ball is not replaced by the juggler. So after dropping the first
ball, he is left with 15 balls.
The probability that the first ball is blue or P(blue ball) = 4/16
The probability that the second ball is green or P(green ball) = 5/15
The probability that the first ball is blue and the second ball is green:
P(blue than green) = P(blue)×P(green)
=4/16×5/15
=1/12
Dependent Events

Mrs. Andrews has to select two students from 35 girls and 15 boys to be part of a club.
What is the probability that both students are girls?

The total number of students =35+15=50

Probability of choosing the first girl, P(girl 1) = 35/50
Probability of choosing the second girl, P(girl 2) = 34/49
Now,
The probability that both students have chosen are girls
P(first girl and second girl)
= P(first girl)×P(second girl | first girl)
=35/50×34/49
=1190/1666
=85/119
 Joint Probability Distribution
• A joint probability is a statistical measure used to calculate the likelihood of two events
taking place at the same time.
• Both events must be independent of each other.
• Joint probability is also called the intersection of two or more events.
• It is different from conditional probability, which refers to the probability that one event
will happen when another event takes place.
• Consider 3 variables a1, a2 and a3. By definition, the probabilities of all different
possible combinations of a1, a2, and a3 are called its Joint Probability Distribution.
Find the probability that the number three will occur twice when two dice are rolled at
the same time.

Number of possible outcomes when a die is rolled = 6 i.e. {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Let A be the event of occurring 3 on first die and B be the event of occurring 3
on the second die.

Both the dice have six possible outcomes, the probability of a three occurring on
each die is 1/6.
P(A) =1/6
P(B )=1/6
P(A,B) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36
example, the below table shows some probabilities for events X and Y happening at
the same time:

Find the probability of X = 3 and Y = 3.

Solution: From the above table, identify the probability under X = 3 and
Y= 3.
 What are Bayesian Networks?

• In statistics, Probabilistic models are used to define a relationship between variables

and can be used to calculate the probabilities of each variable. In many problems,
there are a large number of variables.

• In such cases, the fully conditional models require a huge amount of data to cover
each and every case of the probability functions which may be intractable to calculate
in real-time.

• There have been several attempts to simplify the conditional probability calculations
such as the Naïve Bayes but still, it does not prove to be efficient as it drastically cuts
down several variables.

• The only way is to develop a model that can preserve the conditional dependencies
between random variables and conditional independence in other cases. This leads us
to the concept of Bayesian Networks.
• These Bayesian Networks help us to effectively visualize the probabilistic model for
each domain and to study the relationship between random variables in the form of a
user-friendly graph.

• Bayesian Networks are a type of Probabilistic Graphical Model that uses the
Bayesian inferences for probability computations.

• It represents a set of variables and its conditional probabilities with a Directed

Acyclic Graph (DAG).

• They are primarily suited for considering an event that has occurred and
predicting the likelihood that any one of the several possible known causes is the
contributing factor.
 • Here diagram A, B, C and D are 4
random variables represented by
nodes given in the network of the
graph. To node B, A is its parent node
and C is its child node. Node C is
independent of Node A.

Local Markov Property: The Bayesian Networks satisfy the property known as the
Local Markov Property.
It states that a node is conditionally independent of its non-descendants, given its
parents. In the above example, P(D|A, B) is equal to P(D|A) because D is independent
of its non-descendent, B. This property aids us in simplifying the Joint Distribution.