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intro to statistics 1

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97 views25 pages

Statistics

intro to statistics 1

Uploaded by

patrick clarke
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Probability In this chapter you will learn about different ways of estimating probabilities ‘© how to use probability netation © about the probablity laws including ‘the rule for combined events the ‘or’ rule for mutually exclusive events, the ‘and’ rule for independent events © about conditional probability » how to use tree diagrams «about arrangements, selections, permutations and combinations and their application fo probaly ‘The probability of an event is a measure of the lielibood chac it will happen and itis given on een ererical seale from 0 t0 1. The numbers representing probabilities can be writen 3s percentages, fractions or decimals, A probability of 0 indicates that the event is impossible, {A probability of 1 (re. 100% indicates that the event is certain co happen. ‘All other events have a probability beeween 0 and 1 For example _ There is an evens chance of a cain coming down heads when tossed; the probability is $ or 0.5 or 50%. _ “Thre isa 1 in 4 chance of cutting a pack of cards at a diamonds the probability is }or 0.25 or 25%. _ The weather forecaster may say that there is a 70% chance of rain _ The liketiliood of winning the lortery with one ticket can be shown to be approximately i 1 in 44 million so the probability is — =a * 0,000 000.07, in the probability is 3 59q qqq * 9-000 0000 PROBABILITY WHEN OUTCOMES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY ‘When asked the probability of obtaining a head when a fair coin is tossed, you would probably give the answer } Yor 0.5 or 50%) without bothering to toss a coin a large number of times and working out the limiting value of the relative frequency of heads occurring. Intuitively you would have used the definition of probability that applies when the possible ourcomes are equally likely, For eaqeally like seobability number of possible outcomes ‘When tossing a coin there are two possible outcomes, a head or a tail and if the coin is fair these are equally likely to occur. Only one of the outcomes is successful (obtaining a head) so P(hcad) = }. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES When you cannot estimate a probability using experimental methods or equally likely outcomes, you may need to employ a subjective method. For example, you may wish to estimate the probability that it will snow on Christmas Day, or the lilelihood that a particular make of ear will be stolen. In these cases you have to form a subjective probability which you might base on past experience, such as weather records or crime figures, on expert opinion or on other factors. This method is, of course, open to errors two people faced with the same evidence may give different estimates of the probability. It is sometimes, however, the only method available. PROBABILITY NOTATION AND PROBABILITY LAWS When deriving mathematical rules for probability it is useful to use the definition based on equally likely outcomes, but remember that the results hold for protsability in general. You need some preliminary definitions: ‘Any statistical experiment of trial has a sumer of possible outcomes. Aer TT posible outcomes is called the possiblity space $ Amevent A ofthe experiment is defined be a subset ofS. Here are some examples: When a dic is thrown, the oatcomes are the numbers 1 to 6. So $= (1,2,3,4,5, 6). i Tefine A to be the event ‘the score is less than 3°. ‘Then A = (1, 2). ‘¢ When two dice are thrown, there are 36 possible outcomes, shown by dots on the possibility space diagram, Define Ato be the event ‘the sum of the two scares ig 6” These outcomes are shown ringed in the diagram. In general terms a Venn diagram is often used to show —_— Aand 8. € > “The number of outcomes in the possibility space is denoted by nlS). “The number of ontcomes in event A is denoted by aA. Writing P(A) for the probability of Ay eset te maya ae ‘Aisa subset of S, 90 0< nA) nS) a Therefore PAD= 1 PA) ~ or payed ‘Note that sometimes A is written for the complementary event instead of A’ Example 3.1 A group of 20 university students contains eight who ate in their firse year of study. A student is picked at random to represent the group at a meeting, Find the probability that the student is notin the first year of study. Solution 3.1 Event A: student is in che first year of study. 8 PUA) = 55 = 04 so P(A) = 1- P(A) = 1-04 = 06, ‘The probability that the student ig not in the first year of study is 0.6. Example 3.2 “Two fait coins are tossed. Show the possible outcomes on a possibility space diagram and find the probability that two heads arc obtained. Solution 3.2 Bach coin is equally likely to to show a head or a tail. ‘The possibility space for the outcomes is shown in the diagram, indicating that n(S) = 4, Event A: Two heads are obtained. ‘There is just one outcome for this so (Al _ Ay Therefore P(A) = T= 3 "The probability that two heads are obtained is i . ILLUSTRATING TWO OR MORE EVENTS USING VENN DIAGRAMS Suppose A and B are two events associated with the same experiment. Consider the outcomes described below (a) AUB In sct language, the set that contains the outcomes that are in A or B or both is called the union of A and B and is written AUB. s To represent A U B on the Venn diagram, shade the whole of the coloured ‘figure-ol-eight’ shape, Remember that although this outcome is written ZO or & it includes the events that are in both A and B aswell. 408 meen Aa or Both, (b) AnB In set language, the set that contains the outcomes that are in both A and B is called the intersection of A and B and is written AN B. ‘To represent AM B on the Venn diagram, shade the | 6 overlap of A and B. This outcome is often written Aand B, (¢ PROBABILITY RULE FOR COMBINED EVENTS If the number of outcomes in A is n(A) and the number of ‘outcomes in B is n(B), then for two overlapping sets A and B, if you add 1(A) and n(B) together you will coune the overlap wie. ang So to find the number of outcomes in AUB you have to take one overlap away Tike tis 1A. B) = nA) +n(B)—n(A 0 B) Dividing by a(S), this becomes PA 4) + PB) = PLA nB Alternatively Remember that the word ‘or means A oF B ot both. Example 3.3 Ina class of 20 children, 4 of the 9 boys and 3 of th person from the clas is chosen to be in the “egg and spoon’ probability that the person chosen is (a) in the athletics team, (b) female, {e) a female member of the athletics team, (d) a female or in the athletics team. e 11 girls are in the athletics team. A race on Sports Day. Find the ‘Solution 3.3 Possibility space 5: the class of 20 people {a) Event A: member of the athletics team is chosen PAL Z 08s (by Bvent Fea female is chosen, PA) = nos (c) Plfemale and in the athletics team) = P(A and 7 “There are three girls in the athletics team, 80 P(A and Fra 570-15 {d) P(A or F)= P(A) + PH) ~ P(A and F) 0.35 + 0.55 = 0.15 a ~_ = Example 3.4 9 2 ~ Events Gand D are such that P(C) = 35» POD) = Gand PCY Dd) Find (COD). Solution 3.4 Using (CU D)= PC) + D)- P(E DY Other useful results relating two events A and B fa) fy, 7 P(ANB)=P(BN A) CD hans 0) sfx z P(A) = P(A B)+ PAB) PIB) =PIBA A)+ PIBAAY) % 2 1 Pissoasl A) PU but not A) kc) s (d) 8h, a Pncithet A nor B) = 1 P(A or BY Ce) ie. PUA’ B)=1—P(A UB) wae Example 3.5, Ina survey, 15% of the participants said that they had never bought lottery tickets or a premium bonds, 73% had bought lottery tickets and 49% had bought premium bonds. Find the probability that a person chosen at random from those taking part in the survey (a) had bought lottery tickets or premium bonds, {b} had bought lottery tickets anc premium bonds, {c) had bought lottery tickets only. Solution 3.5, erson has bought lottery tickets, PUL) person has bought premium bonds, P(B) P(neither L nor B) = 0.15 (a) P(L or B) = 1 ~ P(ncither L nor B) 1-015 =0.85 (b) Use PU or B) = P(L) + P(B)— PUL and BY 0.85 = 0.73 + 0.49 — P(L and BY P(L and B) 0.73 + 0.49 - 0.85 =037 Showing all the percentages on a Venn diagram: Example 3.6 Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 04, P(ANB) = 0-1. Find fa) PLA CB), (b) PAB Solution 3.6 fa) PUA)=P(AB)HPIAN BY) 03-0. +P(A NB) PAN B)=0.2 (by PAT B= PAU B) P(AU B) = P(A) + PB) PLAN B) 2034+04-04 Example 3.7 'k group of $0 people was asked which of thrce nowspaPets, ‘A,B oor Chey reach The results Ae ee 2s wend A, 16 read B, 14 tead C, Stead both A and By 4 ead both B and C, 6 ead both Cand A and 2 read all 3. {a) Represent these data on Venn diagram. Find the probability that a person selected a random From this group reads {b) atleast 1 of the newspapers, {) only 1 of the newspapers, (a) only A. w Solution 3.7 (a) Draw 3 overlapping sets represent A, B and C and fit in che numbers given. (b} Plreads at least one) = 1 ~P(reads none} wl $= 0.84 {c) Pleads only one) » P{reads only A) + Plreads only B) + P(reads only C) Ba 5+ § = B= 0.62 (d) P(rcads only A) = 4 =0.32 EXCLUSIVE (OR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE) EVENTS Consider events, A and B, of the same experiment. A and B are said to be exclusive (or mutually exclusive) if they cannot occur at the same time, For example, with onc throw of a die you cannot score a three and a five at the same time, 60 the events ‘scoring a 3° and ‘scoring.a 5° are exclusive events. IfA and B ure exclusive, then P(A B) =O sinee AM Bisan 4 impossible event. There is no overlap of A and B. ©) QO Tor exclusive events, the rule for combined events becomes MAU B)= PA) + PB ‘This is known as the addition rule for exclusive events. 8 Ie is also known as the ‘or’ rule for exclusive events: PA or Bi = PIA) + PO Extending this result to 1 exclusive events, PIA, or A, or Ay. oF Ay) = PAY) + PlAg) = PLA) Fe = PIA] Example 3.8 Ina race in which there are no dead heats, the probability that John wins is 0.3, the probability that Paul wins is 0,2 and the probability that Mark wins is 04, Find the probability that (a} John or Mark wins, (b) John or Paul or Mark wins, {s} someone else wins, Solution 3.8 Since only one person wins, the events are mutually exclusive. (a) P(John or Mark wins) = P(John wins) + P(Paul wins) = 0.3+04=07 (b) P(John or Paul or Mark wins) = P{John wins) + P(Paul wins) + P(Mark wins) 1.3404 +0,2=09 {c) P{someone else wins) = 1- 0.9 = 0.1 Example 3.9 ‘A card is drawn from an ordinary pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that the card is (a) a club or a diamond, (b) aclab or a King. Solution 3.9 Possibility space S; the pack of 52 cards, 80 7(S) = 52 52 5 Gradubisdrawn, 30 (C) 0) 7 \ ee: Oe Deadiamond ie dwn, so PD) == {a) Since a card cannot be both a club and a diamond, the events C and D are matually exclusive. ‘Therefore P(C ot D) = PIC) + PD) wth aa72 (K) 4 (b) Event K: a King is drawn, so P(K) a *S- + “The events Cand K are wot mutually excusive since a card can be both a King and a club. Therefore 2 5 Cand K)= Peking of eubs) = 35+ P(Cor Ky = PC) + PUK)~ P(C and K) Q) » ya eA inal 13 KE RORA EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS I two events A and B ate such that between them they make uP the whole of the possibility space, thon A ab B are said 0 be exhaustive vents and PAU B)= 1 For example, if ‘Sz (the integers from 1 ro 10 inclusive}, ‘A= (ehe integers below 7)= (152,35 4,5, 6 ‘B = (the integers above 5) = (6,7, 8, 9, 10) then AUB=(1,2,3,4,5:65 7589 10) =. Special case: ‘Consider an event A and its complementary event 4’, PiAn A) =O PIAU A) =P{A)+ P(A) = Aay event A and its complementary event A’ are both mutually exclusive and exbaustive. Extending this to m events: HA Ag Ay can 4y are m events which between them make up the whole possibilicy space without overlapping, then Play) + PLAY} + PA) bon 1 and the m events are both mutually exclusive and exhaustive. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY i hen the conditional ‘Aand Bare two events, not necessarily from the same experiment, 1 trobehiiey vot oveurs, given that Bhas already occurred, is written P(A, given Bl or Pal) ; In the Venn diagram, the possibility space is educed to just B, since B has already occurred. 5 n(A. B) a 3 P(A, given B) = (A 1B) nS n(B) nf) P(A 1B) “PB Pea and BY ane PIA, given B PB) Pi ie PALB = ~T5y Rearranging: Reanensber PHA 1H) = PIB AD PIA B)=PIA|B) xP I is also true that PIANB)=PBLA PIA |B) PB) = PUBL Example 3.10 When a dic was thrown the scare was an odd number. What is the probability that it was prime number? Solution 3.10 prime and odd) ‘P(add) P(prime, given. odd) = i 3 ‘P(prime, given odd) =} Icis possible to deduce this straightaway, since che passibility space has been reduced to the ‘odd numbers 1, 3, 5 and two of these, 3 and 5, are prime. Example 3.11 Ina certain college 65% of the students are full-time students, 55% of the students are female, 35% of the students are male full-time students. Find the probability that (a) a student chosen at random from all the students in the college is a part-time student, (b) a student chosen at random from all the students in the college is female and a part-time student, (c) a student chosen at random from all the female students in the college is a part-time student. (EAB) Solution 3.11 Define events as follows: tudent is female, PUR)=0.55 M: student is male, PUM) =1-0.55 = 0.45 Fall: student is full-time, P(Full) = 0.65 (a) P(studene is part-time) = 1 ~ 0.65 = 0.35 (b) Given that 35% are male, full-time students P(MnFull) = 0.35 ‘Also P(Full) = P(M Fall) + P(P 9 Ful) 35-4 PLP Fall) P(A Fall) + 0.30 P(E) = P(P 7 Full) + PCF 1 Bart) 0.55 = 0.304 PUP Part) .. P(Female and part-time} = 0.25 (Part and F) i) 028 94s (c) P(Part, given F) = “0.55 Pistudene chosen from female students is part-time) = 04S Example 3.12 and Y are two events such that P(X | ¥) =0.4, PCY} =0.25 and P(X) = 0.2. Find (a) P(Y|X) (br PX YY (e) P(XU ¥) Solution 3.12 (a) POY |X) x PEK) = POX | ¥)¢ POYD P(Y| X) x 0.2 = 0.4 x 0.25 PUY |X) = 0.5 (b) POSA Y) = POXY) x POY) =0.4%0.25 e01 PXNY)= 01 (el POX U ¥) = POX) + POY) - PIX VY) = 0240.25 - O01 = 0,35 PIXUY) = 0.35 Example 3.13 [A group of girls at a school is entered for Advanced Level Mathematics moctules. Fach git! takes only module MI or only module M2 or both ML and M2, "The probability that gil is taking NI2 given that sbe is talking MU is}. ‘The probability that a git is vaking Mi gives that she is taking M2 is 5. Find the prababilicy that (a) a gis celected at random is taking both Mi and M2, {b) a girl selected at random is taking only M1. Solution 3.13 Events ‘M,:a gisl takes snodule M, ‘M,z a giel takes module M, ‘You are given that P(M,JM,) = 4, P(M\IM,) = } Since cach girl takes one or both, P(M,U M,) = 1 My a (a) Let POM, My) = Myth _ Py 1M) — PM, My) =P, 8) P(M, | My) ai) 1_* SPO PUMy) = Sx PUM, 9 Ma) Aso PUM, Ma) gp fae ° PM) P(M,) = 38 P(M, UM.) = P(M,) + PUM) — P(M, 9 M,) But M, and M, are exhaustive events, so P(M, UM,) = 1 X 1=Se+3x-x Pla gitl is taking M, and M,)=4 (b) P(M,) = Se = §, PUM) = B= 3 (taking only M,) = P(M,) = P(M, 9 ML} up? M 4 Mots takingot =f Gh) ny ty INDEPENDENT EVENTS Ifeither of the events A and B can occur without being affected by the other, then the two events are independent. If A and B are independent, then P(A, given B has occurred) is precisely the same as P{A), since A is not affected by B. ie, PIA: Itis also true that P(B [Al (A). (B) Nowy since P(A. B) = P(A |B) P(B), for independent events this becomes PLAC Bi = PIA} » PIB) ‘This isthe snultiplication rule for independent events. It is also known as the ‘and? rule for independent events. PIA and B) = P(A) x PUB) so thee are three conditions for A and B to be independent and any one of them may be used asa test for independence PUA. OB) = PiAl = PB) PIA[B) = Pia) PiB|A) =P(B) “The multiplication lavr can be extended fo apy number of independent events PiAy and A, and ... Ag! = P(A) * PlA2) * Example 3.14 [A fait di is thrown twice. Find the probability that two fives are thrown. Solution 3.14 Onone throw, P(S) = 4 ‘On two throws, P(S, and 53) = P{S,) x PIS 2) dependent evens byt P{two fives are thrown) Example 3.15 Ina group of 60 students, 20 study History, 24 study French and 8 study both History and French. Are the events ‘a student studies History’ and ‘a student studies French’ independent? Solution 3.15 From the information given P(lisiony) = 38 =f. Pébrench) = 3% P(History and French) = fh = & Now P(History) x P(French) = 4x3 = i So P(History and French) = P{History) x P(French) ‘The two events are independent. ee Example 3.16 Events A and B are independent and P(A) = 4, P(A NB) =. Find (a) P(B) (b) P(A UB). Solution 3.16 (a) Since A and B are independent P(ANB)= P(A) x P(B) 1 x PB) 1 1 PIB) = 4 b) P(A U B)= P(A) + P{) = PLA OB) did Example 3.17 The events A and Bare such that P(A]B)=04, P(BLA)=0.25, P(AMB)=0.12. (a) Calculate the value of P(B). (b} Give a reason why A and B are not independent. {e) Calculate the value of P(A NB’). a Solution 3.17 PAB) Oo. i” 04 F ay O12 B= ae (b) PIB|A) ~ 0.25 + PCB) Aand Bare not independent. fo) PA) = P(ANB) + PAN B) PB A A) ‘No PUBL) = ey 0.12, (a) P(A|B)= 03 So 0.48 =0.12 + P(A 0B) ANB) =0.36 Example 3.18 ‘The events A and B are such that PLA) =0.45, PB) = 0.35 and P(A UB) = 0.7. (a) Pind the value of P(A 7B). {b) Explain why the events A and B are not independent (¢) Find the value of P(A |B). wy Solution 3.18 (a) P(AUB)= P(A) + PB) - PAB) o 0.7 = 0.45 + 0.35 - P(A NB) P(A MB) = 0.8 ~ 0.7 =O. {b) P(A)» P(B)= 0.45 x 0.35 = 0.1575 *PAMB) vs Aand Bare not independent. ANB) PB) 9) PYA\B) = Tecan be shown that if Aand Bare independent, then A’ and Bare also independent For independent events A and B P(A’ and B’) ~ PAY) x PLB!) and = PAA’ |B} = PLAY Pip | A’) = PB Example 3.19 “The everns-A and B are independent and are such that P(A) = PKB) =2¢+ 0.2, and PAN B) = 0.15 (a) Find the value of x. For this value of x, find (b) PAU), fc) P(A" BY. “ Solution 3.19 {a} Using the rule for independent events P(A B) = PLA) x PLB) 0.15 =x(2 +022) By guesswork, 2 ~ 0.3, since 0.3 0.5 = 0.15. Alternative algebraic method: x4 0.28 O15 (x+ 0.1)? 0.01 = 0.15 (completing the square) 4e+ 04)? =0.16 x+01=404 (taking the square root) Bither x =0.3 or x=-0.5 ‘The negative value is impossible for a probability, sox=0.3, PIA) =0.3 and PBY= 0S (b) P(AUB) = P(A) +P(B)~ P(A 1B) =0.3:405 = 01S = 0465 (c) Since A and B are independent, so are A’ and B’ os P(A'|BD= P(A) PIA) =07 Example 3.20 ‘The probability thae a certain type of machine will break down in the first month of operation i 0.1. Ifa firm has two such machines which are installed at the same time, find the probability that, at the end of the first month, just one has broken down, Assume that the performances of the two machines are independent. Solution 3.20 ‘My: machine 1 breaks down P(M,) ‘Mgi machine 2 breaks down PUM,) If just one machine breaks down, then cither machine 1 has broken down and caching 2 is still working (M, 9 My’) or machine 1 is still working and machine 2 has broken down (My' 1-M,} ).1, POM, = 0.9 1, POM) = 0 Now M, and My’ are independent, as are M,’ and M, 50 P(My My") + PAM’ Mz)= P(M,) x PM’) + POM’) PCM) = 0.10.9 -+0.9% 0.4 = 0.18 ‘The probability that after one month just one machine has broken dowa is 0.18. Example 3.21 ‘Three people in an office decide to enter a marathon race. The respective probabilities that they will complete the marathon are 0.9, 0.7 and 0.6. Assuming, that their pecformances are independent, find the probability that (a) they all complete the marathon, (b) at least two complete the marathon. Solution 3.21 dn first person completes the marathon, P(A)~0.9, P(A) ~ 9.8 * second person completes the marathon, P(B)=0.7, PB) = 04 Pepe Shard person completes tbe marathon PC) ~0.6, P(C)= 04 (a) Plall three complete) = P(A) x PB) % PLC) be 0.9 0.7 x 0.6 =0378 {by Wat lease two complete the marathon then either two of then do, oF all three do. Pall three complete) = 0.378 from part (a) Ptrwo complete) = P(A) PB) xP(C) P(A) XPD *POD. AY) x PKB) x PIC} O9x07xO4 + 0.9x03x04 + 1x07 x06 0.456 Plat least two complete) = 0,378 + 0.456 {eis important not to confuse the terms ‘mutually exclusive Musually exclusive events are events that cannot happen together ‘They are usually the outcomes of one experiment. Independent events ate events that can happen simoltancously oF 20 be seen to happen one after the other. “These three results are particularly useful, Leaen ther P\A and B) = P(A given B) x PIB) PAM B= PUA) B)x PB) For muvually exclusive events PKA o B= PLA) +POB) 1 PUAU B)=PIA) + PCB) For independent events PiA and B) = P(A) x PLB) ——— Tbe ans le PLAN B)= PA) PB) ind ‘independent’ Example 3.22 “The thece events Fy £, and Fy ate defined in she same sample space, The events Fr and By are mutually exclusive. The events B, and E, are independent. Given that P(B,) = %, P(E) = Sand PCE, U Ea) = } find (a) PE, UES) (b) P(E2)- D Solution 3.22 (a) Since E, and E, are nmutually exclusive, P(E, U Es) = PUE\) + P(E) ve 3 iy i (b) P(E, UE,) = PlE,) + (E,) PLE, NE) 2 4 P(E) P(E) x P(E) —~ Ey and, a0 depends Example 3.23 ‘Two ordinary fair dice, one red and one blue, are to be rolled once. (a) Bind the probabilities of the following evenes: Event A: the number showing on the red die will bea 5 or a 6. Event B: the total af the numbers showing on the two dice will be 7, Event C: the total of the numbers showing on the two dice will be 8. (b) State, with a reason, which two of the events A, B and Care mutually exclusive, {s} Show that the events A and B are independent, (NEAB) Solution 3.23 (a) ge 33 ‘There are 36 equally likely outcomes, so 1{S) = 36 3° )=12 Mayet a nlA)= Paes 61 2 - rey- St : n(B) = 6 PO) = 52> G ° n(C)=5 2 PO= 2 orzaase Sewon ede (b) Itis not possible to score 7 and 8 with one throw of the die, so events B and C-do not overlap. Events Band C are mutually exclusive. (c} There are two ways to score 7 with the red die showing 5 or 6. These arc (5,2) and (6, 1}. 204 Son(A and B) =2 and P(A and B= sz = 5 1 But P(A) PCB) = 4x b= So P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B) Events A and B are independent. PROBABILITY TREES A useful way of tackling many probability problems is to draw a probability tree. The method is illustrated in the following example. Example 3.24 Ina certain selection of flower seeds } have been treated to improve germination and { have been left untreated. The seeds which have been treated have a probability of germination of 0.8, whereas the untreated seeds have a probability of germination of 0.5 (a) Find the probability that a seed, selected at random, will germinate, The seeds were sown and given time to germinate (b) Find the probability that a seed selected at random had been treated, given that it had germinated. Ly Solution 3.24 Events ‘T: seed is treated AT) = PCT) = 5 Gzseed germinaves P(G|T}= 0.8, P(G|T) =0.5 PCP and G) =PCD) xP(G|T) = 30.8 P(F and G)= PCP) x PCG'|T) = 30.2 POP and G)= PO") x GIT) = [x05 ested or not emrata aah POP aad C') = POT) PCG) = 30.5 ‘How to use the tree: (i) Mulsiply the probabilities along the branches to get the end results, so for the first outcome, use che fact that P(T and G) = P(P) x PG given T) (ii) On any set of branches that meet at @ point, the probabilities must add up to 1 ograz=1 (iii) Cheek chat all the end results add up 0 1 (iv) ‘To answer any questions find the relevant ‘end results. If more than one satisfy the requirements, add these end results together. In practice you would asually label your tree more simply as follows. 6 PITA GH 3x 0.8 * on PITNG!) =4x0.2 PING) =$x 05 PIT. AG)= 440.5 &) PEG)= PPG) + PUP NG} 4x0.8+ 40.5 a =0.7 ob) PCF, sven 6) ATED — narked*atow _ 4x08 “07 = 0.762 (3 dp.} Example 3.25 A manufacturer makes writing pens. The manufacturer employs an inspector ta check the quality of his product. The inspector tested a random sample of the pens from a large batch and calculated the probability of any pen being defective as 0.025) Carmel buys two of the pens made by the manufacturer. (a) Calculate the probability that both pens are defective. {b) Calculate the probability that exactly one of the pens is defective. «© Solution 3.25 D: apenis defective, P(D) = 0.025, P(D) = 1 - 0.025 = 0.975. 2 DAD) 7 PDD!) = 0.025 x 0.975 2 PDD) = 0.975 0.025 Fst gen Sscond pan {a) P{both pens are defective) =P(DND) — — "wi = 0.025 «0.025 = 0.000 625 (b) Plexactly one pen is defective) = P(D 0D’) + P(D' MD) = 0,025 x 0.975 + 0.975 % 0.025 = 0.048 75 Example 3.26 Events X and Y are such that P(X’) = 3, P(Y|X) = 4, PO"|X) = By drawing a tree diagram, find fa) PLY) (b) POX] Y) Solution 3.26 Drawa tree diagram, showing event X followed by event Y, and write in all the given probabilities, Then work out the missing probabilities using the fact that probabilities on all the branches from a point add up to 1. ae PKA Y= 3d x a te y PX Y)= ix (b) POC | ¥) x PLY) = POL) « PX) 113 PRIM *Z 95S wine? porting Alternatively P(X’ and ¥) oe jy) - Pee POT) =p i 3 Example 3.27 When a person needs a minicab, itis hired from one of three firms, X, ¥ and Z, OF the hitings 40% are from X_ 50% ave from Y and 10% are from Z, For cabs hired from X, 9% arrive late, the corresponsing, percentages for cabs hired from firms Y and Z being 6% and 20% respectively. Calculate the probability that the next cab hired {a) will be from X and will not arrive late, (b) will arrive late. Given that a calls made for a minicab and that it arrives late find, to three decimal places, the probability that it came from Y. a) Solution 3.27 Events Probabilities Xs cab is from X PIX)=04 Y: cab is from ¥ PUYY=0.5 2: cab is from Z P(Z)= 0.1 L:cabis late P(L|X)=0.09, PUL|Y)=0.06, PL|Z) =0.2 4 PIE AL) 0-4 x 0.09 = 0.036 109 © PX AL} =0.4 x 0.91 = 0.3648 1. PUM L) $0.5 «0.06 = 0.03 Ah © PCY LE) = 0.5 x 0.94 = 0.47 PAN 1) = 01% 02 =0.02 \ os / PEN L)=0.1 x 0.8=0.08 (a) P(from X and not late) = PIX NL’) = 0.364 "on dingraen (b) Plarrives late) = P(X and late) + P(Y and late} + P(Z and late) =PIXAL) + PIYAL) + PIZ AL) —shadedin dagen 0.036 + 0.03 +002 The possibility space is now reduced to the outcomes when the cab arrives late, where PLL) = 0.086 (part b) Plfrom ¥ given it was tte) = PO. RYO D) ie PIE) ce 13 marhedZ in dsians 86 1.349 (3 Ap.)

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