30 Chapter 2. Probability DEFINITION 2.6 2. The relative frequency of the whole sample space must be unity. Because every possible outcome of the experiment isa point in S,it follows that § must ‘occur every time the experiment is performed. 3._ Ifewo events are mutually exclusive, the relative frequency of their union is the sum of their respective relative frequencies. (For example, if the experiment of tossing a balanced die yields a 1 on 1/6 of the tosses, it should yield a I or a2 on 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3 of the tosses.) ‘These three conditions form the basis of the following definition of probability Suppose is sample space associated with an experiment. To every event A in S (A is a subset of S), we assign a number, P(A), called the probability of A, so thatthe following axioms hol Axiom 1: P(A) > 0. ‘Axiom 2: P(S) ‘Axiom 3: IAs, Az, As,... forma sequence of pairwise mutually exclusive events in $ (hats, Ary = Biff + j), then P(A, U Aa Ag U9) = J PLAY. ‘We can easily show that Axiom 3, which is stated in terms of an infinite sequence of ‘events, implies a similar property fora finite sequence. Specifically, if A1, Az, + An are pairwise mutually exclusive events, then PAU AsU AyU- Un) = SPUD. Notice that the definition stares only the conditions an assignment of probabilities ‘must satisfy: i does not tell us how to assign specific probabilities to events. For ‘example, suppose that a coin has yielded 800 heads in 1000 previous tosses. Consider the experiment of one more toss of the same coin. There are two possible outcomes, hhead or tail, and hence two simple events. The definition of probability allows us to assign to these simple events any two nonnegative numbers that add to 1. Forexample, ceach simple event could have the probability 1/2. In light ofthe past history of this coin, however, it might be more reasonable to assign a probability nearer .8 to the ‘outcome involving a head. Specific assignments of probabilities must be consistent ‘with reality if the probabilistic model isto serve a useful purpose, For discrete sample spaces, it suffices to assign probabilities to each simple event. IF balanced dic is used for the die-tossing example, it seems reasonable to assume that all simple events would have the same relative frequency in the long run, We will assign a probability of 1/6 to each simple event: P(E,) = 1/6, for i = 1,2,...,6. This assignment of probabilities agrees with Axiom I. Tosee that Axiom 2is satisfied, write P(S) = P(E, U Ea UU Bg) = PCE) + P(E) +--+ PUE@) = 1 ‘The second equality follows because Axiom 3 must hold, Axiom 3 also tells us that ‘we can calculate the probability of any event by summing the probabilities of the24 A Probabilist ‘Model for an Experiment: The Discrete Case 31 simple events contained in that event (recall that distinet simple events are mutually exclusive). Event A was defined to be “observe an odd number.” Hence, P(A) = P(E, U Es U Es) = P(E) + P(E) + PUES) = 1/2. EXAMPLE 2.1 Solution ‘A manufacturer has five seemingly identical computer terminals available for ship- ping. Unknown to her, two of the five are defective, A particular order calls for {wo of the terminals and is filled by randomly selecting Wo of the five that are availabe. List the sample space for this experiment. b Let A denote the event that the order is filled with two nondefective terminals List the sample points in A. € Construct a Venn diagram for the experiment that ilustrates event Assign probabilities to the simple events in such a way that the information bout the experiment is used and the axioms in Definition 2.6 are met Find the probability of event A. @ Let the two defective terminals be labeled Dy and D3 and Tet the three good. terminals be labeled Gy, G2, and G3, Any single sample point will consist of a Tist of the wo terminals selected for shipment. The simple events may be denoted by Ey) = (Dy, Dr). Es= (Di, Gy Ey = (Gy. Gi}. Bo = (Go. Gs) p= (Di, Gi Ee = (Ds, Go, Ex = (Gs. Gil. (DG), Ey = (Ds. Gs}, E. = (Di, Gs) ‘Thus, there are ten sample points in S, and S b Event A = (Es, Es, Evo) {Es,Bay Eta) © s rs oy oR 88, oe, Because the terminals are selected at random, any pair of terminals is as likely to be selected as any other pair. Thus, P(E;) = 1/10, for = 1,2,..., 10, isa reasonable assignment of probabilities.32 Chapter 2 Probability € Because A= Ey U Ey U Eyo, Axiom 3 implies that P(A) = PUES) + PUEs) + PEW 3/10. 29 212 TThe next section contains an axiomatic description of the method for calculating P(A) that we just used. Before we proceed, let us note that there are experiments for which the sample space is not countable and hence is not discrete. Suppose, for example, thatthe experiment consists of measuring the blood glucose level ofa diabetic patient. The sample space for this experiment would contain an interval of real numbers, and any such interval contains an uncountable number of values. Thus, the sample space is not discrete Situations like the latter will be discussed in Chapter 4, The remainder of this chapter is devoted to developing methods for calculating the probabilities of events defined ‘on diserete sample spaces, Exercises [Every person's blood type is A, B, AB, or O. In addition, each individual either has the Rhesus (Rh) factor (+) oF does not (—). A medical technician records a person's blood type and Rh factor. List the sample space fr this experiment. Te proporions of blood phenotypes, A, B, AB, and O, inthe population ofall Caucasians in the United States are approximately 41, 10, 04, and 45, respectively. A single Caucasian is chosen at random from the population. List the sample space for this experiment bb Make use ofthe information given above to assign probabilities to each of te simple events {© What is the probability thatthe person chosen at random has ether type Aor type AB blood? ‘A sample space consists of five simple events, Ey, Es, Bs, By, and Es a PCy Eqand Es b if P(E) = 3PCE:) = 03, find the probabilities ofthe remaining simple events if you ‘know thatthe remaining simple events are equally probable. P(E) = 0.15, P(E) = 0.4, and P(E 2P (Es) ind the probabilities of A vebiele arriving at an intersection can turn right, turn lef, or continue straight ahead. The ‘experiment consists of observing the movement ofa single vehile through the intersection, List the sample space for this experiment, bb Assuming that all sample points ae equally likely, ind the probability that the vehicle turns. Americans can be quite suspicious, especialy when it comes to government conspiracies. On the question of whether the U.S, Air Force has withheld proof ofthe existence of intelligent life on other plants, the proportions of Americans with varying opinions are given in the table