Probability

PROBABILITY
◉ The strand of mathematics looking at
the chance of events occurring.
◉ The chance that a given event will
occur.

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 EXPERIMENT
◉ Is the process by which an observation (or measurement) is
obtained.
Example: Recording a test grade, Measuring daily rainfall,
Flipping a coin and observing the face that appears. Possible
outcomes: Head, Tail, Tossing a die: Possible Outcomes: 1, 2, 3,
4,5,6
Each experiment may result in an outcome, which is
called an Event and is denoted by capital letter.
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 SAMPLE SPACE
◉ A set in which all of the possible
outcomes of a statistical experiment are
represented as points. It is also
represented by the symbol S.

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 Example
◉ The sample space when a coin is flipped is S ={H,T}
◉ The sample space of tossing a dice is S ={1,2,3,4,5,6}

 Each outcome in a sample space is called an

element or a member of the sample space.

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 ELEMENTS
◉ Amember of an object in a set
◉ Anitem or term contained within a
set of items or terms.

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 EVENT
◉ Is an occurrence or the possibility of
an occurrence that is being investigated.
◉ It is a set of outcomes from a given experiment.
◉ AnEvent is a subset of a sample space.

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 Example
◉ If Ais the event that an odd number comes out in a single toss
of a dice, then A={1,3,5} is a subset of the sample space
S ={1,2,3,4,5,6}

or if Ais the event that at least one head comes out in flipping
a coin twice, then A ={HH, HT, TH} is a subset of the sample
space S ={HH, HT, TH, TT}

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 SUBSET
◉ A subset of a given set is a collection of
thingsthat belong to the original set.
◉ A set whose members are part of a
bigger set.

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 COMPLEMENT
◉ The complement of an event A with respect
to the sample space S is the set of all
elements of S that are not in event A. We
denote the complement of A by the symbol
A'.

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 Example
◉ Let R be the event that a red card is selected from an ordinary
deck of 52 playing cards, and let S be the entire deck. Then R’
is the event that the card selected from the deck is not a red
card but a black card.
◉ Consider the sample space S ={book, cell phone, mp3, paper,
stationery, laptop}.
Let A={book, stationery, laptop, paper}.
Then, the complement of A, A’ ={cell phone, mp3}.

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 INTERSECTION
◉ The intersection of two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol AB is the event
containing all elements that are common to
Aand B.

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 Example
◉ Let E be the event that a person selected at random in a
classroom is majoring in engineering, and let F be the event
that the person is female. Then E ∩F is the event of all female
engineeringstudentsin the classroom.

◉ Let V ={a,e,i,o,u} and C ={l,r,s,t}; then it follows that V ∩C =φ.

That is, V and C have no elements in common and, therefore,
cannot both simultaneously occur.

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Two events A and B are mutually
exclusive events if AB =, that is Aand
B have no elements in common.
Ex. In the die-tossing experiment, if
A={1,2,3} and B ={4,5,6}, then A ∩ 𝐵 = ∅

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The union of the two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A𝖴B, is the event
containing all the elements that belong to
A or B or both.

Ex. Let A = {a,b,c} and

B = {b,c,d,e}; then
A𝖴B = {a,b,c,d,e}.
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A𝖴C = regions 1, 2, 3, 4,
5, and 7 ,

B’∩A = regions 4 and 7,

A∩B∩C = region 1,
(A𝖴B)∩C’ = regions 2,
6, and 7

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 EXERCISES:
1. List the elements of each of the sample spaces
(a) the set of integers between 1and 50divisible by 8;
(b) the set S ={x|x2 +4x−5=0};
(c) the set of outcomes when a coin is tossed until a tail
or three heads appear;
(d) the set S ={x|xisa continent};
(e) the set S ={x|2x−4≥0and x<1}.

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RESULTS:

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2. An experiment consists of choosing a number
from 0 to 9 at random. Let A be the event of
choosing an even number and B be the event of
choosing an odd number. Let C be the event of
choosing the number 2, 3, 4 or 5 and D be the
event of choosing 1, 6, or 7. List the elements of
the sets corresponding to the following:
Sample space S, A, B, C, D, AC, C', AB ,
(SC)', ABD'
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Solution:

S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}
A = even numbers {0, 2, 4, 6, 8}
B = odd numbers {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}
D = {1, 6, 4, 7}

AC (SC)'
{0, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} {0, 1, 6, 7, 8, 9}

C’ ABD'
{0, 1, 6, 7, 8 ,9} {ø}

AB
{ø}

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 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

◉ The Fundamental Counting Principle

(also called the counting rule) is a way to
figure out the number of outcomes in a
probability problem. Basically, you
multiply the events together to get the
total number of outcomes.
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 Why is counting important in
probability?
◉ To decide “how likely” an event is, we need
to count the number of times an event could
occur and compare it to the total number of
positive events.

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Counting Sample Points - The fundamental principle of counting,
often referred to as the multiplication rule
◉ Rule 1. If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each
of these ways a second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then
the two operations can be performed together in 𝑛1 𝑛2 ways.
Ex1. How many sample points are there in the sample space
when a pair of dice is thrown once?
The first die can land face-up in any one of n1 =6 ways. For
each of these 6 ways, the second die can also land face-up in n2 =6
ways. Therefore, the pair of dice can land in n1n2 =(6)(6) =36 possible
ways.

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Ex.2. A developer of a new subdivision offers
prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor, rustic,
colonial, and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-
story, and split-level floor plans. In how many different
ways can a buyer order one of these homes?

Ex. 3. If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a

treasurer, how many different ways can these two to be
elected?

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Ex.2.

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Example 3.

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 Rule 2. If an operation can be performed in 𝑛1 ways, and if
for each of these a second operation can be performed in
𝑛2 ways, and for each of the first two a third operation can
be performed in 𝑛3 ways, and so forth, then the sequence
of k operations can be performed in 𝑛1 𝑛2 … 𝑛𝑘 ways.
Ex1. Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself.
He has the choice of chips from two brands, a hard drive from
four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five
local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the
parts?
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Solution:

Since n1 =2, n2 =4, n3=3, and n4 =5

there are

n1n2n3n4n5 = (2)(4)(3)(5)
= 120 different ways to order parts.

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 PERMUTATION
◉ is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.

Ex. Consider the three letters a, b, and c. The

possible permutations are abc, acb, bac, bca, cab,
and cba.
n1n2n3 =(3)(2)(1) =6permutations

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 Theorems:
◉ For any non-negative integer n, n!, called “n
factorial,” is defined as n!=n(n−1)···(2)(1), with
special case 0! =1.

Theorem 1: The number of permutations of

n objects is n!.

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 Now consider the number of permutations that are
possible by taking two letters at a time from abcd.
These would be ab, ac, ad, ba, bc, bd, ca, cb, cd, da,
db, and dc.
In general, n distinct objects taken r at a time can be
arranged in n(n−1)(n−2)···(n−r +1) ways. We represent
this product by the symbol
Theorem 2. The number of permutations of n distinct
objects taken r at a time is n𝑃 = 𝑛
! !
𝑛−𝑟

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 Example
1. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service)
will be given to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics
department. If each student can receive at most one award,
how many possible selections are there?

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Theorem 3. The number of permutations of n
objects arranged in a circle is (n−1)!.

Theorem 4. The number of distinct permutations of

n things of which 𝑛1 are of one kind, 𝑛2 of a second
kind, ..., 𝑛𝑘 of a kth kind is
𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !
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 Example
◉ In a college football training session, the defensive
coordinator needs to have 10 players standing in a row.
Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2
sophomores, 4 juniors, and 3 seniors. How many different
ways can they be arranged in a row if only their class level
will be distinguished?
Directly using Theorem 4, we find that the total number
of arrangements is
10!
= 12,600
1! 2! 4! 3!
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 Often we are concerned with the number of ways of partitioning a
set of n objects into r subsets called cells. A partition has been
achieved if the intersection of every possible pair of the r subsets is
the empty set φ and if the union of all subsets gives the original set.
The order of the elements within a cell is of no importance. Consider
the set {a, e, i, o, u}. The possible partitions into two cells in which
the first cell contains 4 elements and the second cell 1 element
are{(a,e,i,o),(u)},{(a,i,o,u),(e)},{(e,i,o,u),(a)},{(a,e,o,u),(i)},{(a,e,i,u),(o)}.

We see that there are 5 ways to partition a set of 4 elements into two
subsets, or cells, containing 4elements in the first cell and 1element in
the second.

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◉ Theorem 5. The number of ways of partitioning a set of n
objects into r cells with n1 elements in the first cell, n2
elementsin the second, and so forth, is

𝑛 𝑛!
𝑛1 , 𝑛2 , … , 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛 !

Ex. In how many ways can 7graduate students be assigned to 1

triple and 2double hotel rooms duringa conference?

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In many problems, we are interested in the number of ways of
selecting r objects from n without regard to order. These selections
are called combinations. A combination is actually a partition with
two cells, the one cell containing the r objects selected and the other
cell containing the (n−r) objects that are left. The number of such
combinations, denoted by
𝑛 𝑛 = 𝑛!
𝑟, 𝑛 − 𝑟 𝑜𝑟 𝑟 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

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 Example
◉ Ayoung boy asks his mother to get 5picture card from his collections of
10flower picture cards and 5sports picture cards. How many are there
that his mother can get 3flower and 2sports picture cards?

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 Exercises:
1.If an experiment consists of throwing a die and then drawing
a letter at random from the English alphabet, how many points
are there in the sample space?
2.How many ways are there to select 3 candidates from 8
equally qualified recent graduates for openings in an
accounting firm?

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EXERCISE 1.

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EXERCISE 2.

Answer:
Step-by-step explanation:
First, we provide the given facts
3 candidates
8 possible candidates
This equation will make use of
the permutation formula. This is the
formula for the number of possible
combinations of r objects from a set of n
objects, regardless of order.
In this case,
r=3
n=8

Therefore, the accounting firm can have 336 possible combinations to get 3
candidates from an 8-man pool of qualified recent graduates.

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 Probability of an Event, P[Event]
◉ Postulates of
Probability: 0
P[Event]  1
P [impossible event] =
0 P[sure event] =1
The sum of the probabilities for all simple events in S
is equal to 1.
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The probability of an event A is the sum of the weights of all
sample points in A.Therefore,

0 ≤P (A ) ≤1,P (φ) = 0,and P (S ) = 1.

Furthermore, if A1, A2, A3, . . . is a sequence of mutually

exclusive events,then

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Example 1: A coin is tossed twice. What is the probability that at least
1head occurs?
Answer: S ={HH, HT, TH, TT}
P (A) =3/4

Example 2: Adie is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice

as likely to occur as an odd number. If Eis the event that a number less
than 4occurs on a single toss of the die, find P(E).
Answer: S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Let w =probability that an odd
comes out then, 2w =probability that an even comes out
Let E be the event that the numbers 1,2,3come out or E ={1,2,3}
𝒘+𝟐𝒘+𝒘 𝟒
Then, the P(E)= =
𝒘+𝟐𝒘+𝒘+𝟐𝒘+𝒘+𝟐𝒘 𝟗

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◉ Rule 3.
If an experiment can result in any one of N
different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly n
of these outcomes correspond to event A, then
the probability of event Ais
𝑛
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁

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 Example
◉ In a poker hand consisting of 5cards, find the probability of holding 2aces and 3
jacks.
Solution: The number of ways of being dealt 2aces from 5cards is
5 5!
= = 10
2 2! 3!
The number of ways of being dealt 3jacks from 5cards is
5 5!
= = 10
3 3!2!

By the multiplication rule (Rule 2.1), there are n=(10)(10) =100hands with 2aces and 3
jacks. The total number of 5-card poker hands, all of which are equally likely, is
52 = 52! = 2,598,960 therefore P(E)= 10 (10) = 3.85𝑋10−5
5 5!47! 2,598,960

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 Additive Rules
Theorem 6. If Aand Bare two events, then
P(A𝖴 B) =P(A) +P(B) −P(A∩ B).
Corollary 1: If Aand Bare mutually exclusive, then
P(A𝖴 B) =P(A) +P(B).
Corollary 2: If A1,A2,…, An are mutually exclusive, then
P(A1 𝖴 A2 𝖴 ··· 𝖴 An) =P(A1) +P(A2) +···+P(An).
Corollary 3: If A1, A2,…, An is a partition of sample space S,
then
P(A1UA2U…U An ) =P(A1) +P(A2) +···+P(An) =P(S) =1.

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Theorem 7.
For three events A, B, and C,
WhatisP(A𝖴 B 𝖴 C) equal to?
=P(A) +P(B) +P(C)−P(A∩ B) −
P(A∩ C) −P(B∩ C) +P(A∩ B∩ C).

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Example

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Theorem 8.
If A and A’ are
complementary events, then
P(A) +P(A’) =1.

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 Examples
1. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8or more cars on any given
workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service
at least 5cars on his next day at work?

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 Exercises:
1.In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied
mathematics, 69 studied history, and 35 studied both
mathematics and history. If one of these students is selected
at random, find the probability that
(a) the student took mathematics or history;
(b) the student did not take either of these subjects;
(c) the student took history but not mathematics.

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or 0.88

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or 0.12

or 0.34

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2.In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards,
find the probability of holding
(a) 3aces;
(b) 4hearts and 1club.

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Thank you
for Any questions?
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