EIA - Short-Term Energy Outlook Sept 2023

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Short-Term

Energy Outlook
STEO
September 2023
September 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the
U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), prepared this report. By law, our data, analyses, and forecasts are
independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government. The views in this
report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 1


September 2023

Short-Term Energy Outlook


Overview
U.S. energy market indicators 2022 2023 2024

Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) $101 $84 $88

Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) $3.97 $3.60 $3.52

U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) 11.91 12.78 13.16
Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British
thermal units) $6.42 $2.58 $3.24
U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet
per day) 10.6 11.6 13.2
Shares of U.S. electricity generation
Natural gas 39% 42% 40%
Coal 20% 16% 15%
Renewables 22% 22% 25%
Nuclear 19% 19% 19%
U.S. GDP (percentage change) 2.1% 2.2% 1.4%
U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) 4.96 4.79 4.75
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

• Global oil production. This Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) incorporates Saudi Arabia’s
September 5 announcement to continue its voluntary crude oil production cut of 1 million barrels
per day (b/d) through the end of this year. Previously, the voluntary cut was set to expire at the end
of September. Global oil inventories in our forecast fall by 0.2 million b/d in the fourth quarter of
2023 (4Q23) based on the extension of this production cut.

• Crude oil prices. We expect the Brent crude oil price to average $93 per barrel (b) during 4Q23, up
from $86/b in August. A decline in global oil inventories in the coming months supports the Brent
price in our forecast. The price eases to an average of $87/b by the second half of 2024 because we
expect global oil inventories to rise during that period.

• U.S. gasoline consumption. We reduced our U.S. gasoline consumption forecast because the U.S.
Census Bureau revised its population estimates for the United States to include fewer people of
working age and more people of retirement age, who tend to drive less. The revised population
estimates have also resulted in a downward revision of our vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecast,
which directly affects motor gasoline consumption. We forecast U.S. gasoline consumption will
average 8.9 million b/d in 2023 and 8.7 million b/d in 2024. Our 2024 forecast is down by 0.2 million
b/d from our August STEO.

• Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption. In our forecast, U.S. liquid fuels consumption averages 20.1
million b/d in 2023, down 0.3 million b/d from last month’s forecast. In addition to reduced gasoline

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 2


September 2023

consumption, this forecast incorporates changes to the Petroleum Supply Monthly that reclassified
natural gasoline and unfinished oils from product supplied to crude oil supply to more accurately
represent the use of these products. These changes also reduce our forecast 2024 consumption by
0.5 million b/d to 20.3 million b/d.

• Natural gas consumption. U.S. natural gas consumption in our forecast averages 80.5 billion cubic
feet per day (Bcf/d) in September, an increase of 5% from last September and a record for
September. The increase follows a period of elevated natural gas-fired electricity generation from
strong U.S. air-conditioning demand in response to summer heat as well as reduced generation from
coal-fired plants.

• Electricity generation. We forecast electricity generation in 3Q23 will increase by 2% in the United
States from the same period last year. The increase largely reflects warmer temperatures this
summer and it follows a year-over-year 4% decline in electricity output during the first half of 2023.

• Propane price. Beginning with this STEO, we are publishing a forecast for the Mont Belvieu propane
spot price. One of our Between the Lines supplements this month discusses this forecast in more
detail.

Notable forecast changes


current forecast: September 12, 2023; previous forecast: August 8, 2023 2023 2024
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption (current forecast) (million barrels per
day) 20.1 20.3
Previous forecast 20.5 20.7
Percentage change -1.6% -2.2%
U.S. gasoline consumption (current forecast) (million barrels per day) 8.9 8.7
Previous forecast 8.9 8.9
Percentage change -0.4% -2.0%
U.S. diesel retail price (current forecast) (dollars per gallon) $4.31 $4.07
Previous forecast $4.17 $3.94
Percentage change 3.5% 3.4%
U.S. natural gas consumption in the electric power sector (current
forecast) (billion cubic feet per day) 35.3 33.9
Previous forecast 34.8 33.5
Percentage change 1.5% 1.3%
U.S. Real gross domestic product (current forecast) (percentage) 2.2% 1.4%
Previous forecast 1.9% 1.2%
Percentage point change 0.3 0.2
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 3


September 2023

Global Oil Markets


Global oil prices
Following Saudi Arabia’s September 5 announcement to extend its voluntary 1 million barrel per day
(b/d) production cut through the end of this year, we expect that global oil inventories will fall over that
period, adding upward pressure to oil prices in the coming months. The Brent crude oil spot price in our
forecast averages $93 dollars per barrel (b) in the fourth quarter of 2023 (4Q23). Prices should decline
beginning in 2024 as oil inventories build, with prices averaging $88/b next year. The inventory builds
next year largely reflect slowing oil demand growth, non-OPEC oil production growth, and the end of
Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts.

The Brent spot price averaged $86/b in August, up $11/b since June. Oil prices increased in August
primarily because Saudi Arabia extended voluntary crude oil production cuts through September and
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories ended August at their lowest level since December 2022.

Global oil demand and inventories

Our current assessment is that global oil inventories are falling by 0.6 million b/d in 3Q23. Inventory
draws moderate to 0.2 million in 4Q23, but OPEC+ cuts to oil production keep global oil production
lower than global oil demand. As a result, we expect the Brent spot price will remain above $90/b
through 1Q24 before averaging $87/b over the remaining three quarters of next year. However, the
potential for continued voluntary production cuts creates some upside risk for oil prices.

Global oil supply


We forecast global liquid fuels production will increase by 1.2 million b/d in 2023 despite recent
voluntary decreases in production from OPEC+. Global production in our forecast increases by 1.7
million b/d in 2024. Non-OPEC production is the main driver of global production growth in our forecast,

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 4


September 2023

increasing by 2.0 million b/d in 2023 and 1.3 million b/d in 2024, led by the United States, Brazil, Canada,
and Guyana. We expect Russia’s production will decline by 0.3 million b/d on average this year and
remain relatively unchanged in 2024. We forecast that OPEC crude oil production will fall by 0.8 million
b/d in 2023 and increase by 0.4 million b/d in 2024.

Petroleum Products
U.S. motor gasoline consumption
We reduced our vehicle miles traveled (VMT) forecast—which directly affects motor gasoline
consumption—following the release of new population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The
revision increased the share of the U.S. population over 65, which reduced our forecast for VMT and
gasoline consumption because it decreased our estimate of the working-age population commuters. In
our September STEO forecast, the share of the U.S. population that will be over 65 is 18.2% in 2024, up
from our August STEO forecast of 18.0%. This seemingly small increase adds 0.7 million individuals to
the population of adults over 65. Although the total population remained unchanged, the U.S. Census
Bureau revised the population under the age of 15 down by 0.5 million and the working-age population
down by 0.2 million people. We define the working-age population as ages 15–64 because this group
accounts for the bulk of the workforce and regular commuting.

In our September STEO, we forecast U.S. gasoline consumption will average 8.9 million barrels per day
(b/d) in 2023 and 8.7 million b/d in 2024 (down from our August STEO forecast of 8.9 million b/d in
2024). As a result of the revisions, we forecast that gasoline consumption will decline by 1.6% in 2024
compared with this year.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 5


September 2023

U.S. diesel crack spread


We raised our diesel price forecast because of higher-than-expected August diesel crack spreads (the
price of a gallon of diesel minus the price of a gallon of crude oil) and our expectation for lower distillate
inventories in the fall. Announced maintenance at the Irving Oil refinery in St. John, New Brunswick, and
at the Monroe Energy refinery in Trainer, Pennsylvania, will reduce distillate fuel oil supplies to the East
Coast. Total distillate inventories in the United States have been well below average since last year, and
we currently estimate U.S. distillate inventories will decline by about 11 million barrels in October, more
than the average October draw from 2018–22 of nearly 8 million barrels, largely because of the
maintenance. The draw will contribute to additional increases in the distillate crack spread in October,
which we estimate will average $1.29 per gallon (gal), a 31-cent increase compared with the August
STEO.

Both seasonal increases in demand along with refinery maintenance will reduce distillate inventories.
Increased seasonal demand will also reduce inventories. East Coast distillate demand tends to increase
in the winter months because many households in the U.S. Northeast use distillate heating oil, while
Midwest distillate demand tends to increase in September and October because of agricultural demand
associated with the harvest season. Refinery maintenance and increased end-of-year distillate
consumption are typical in most years, but our outlook for higher distillate crack spreads also reflects
low global distillate inventories.

Natural Gas
Natural gas consumption
We forecast U.S. natural gas consumption in September to average 80.5 billion cubic feet per day
(Bcf/d), a record high for September and up 5% from the previous record set in September 2022. Based

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 6


September 2023

on our estimates, September would be the third straight month of record natural gas consumption in
the United States, after records in July (86.5 Bcf/d) and in August (86.7 Bcf/d).

The increase in natural gas consumption in the summer has led to a slight increase in U.S. natural gas
consumption in 2023. We forecast U.S. natural gas consumption to average 89.7 Bcf/d for all of 2023, up
1% from 2022. Annual U.S. natural gas consumption set its previous record high in 2022, averaging 88.6
Bcf/d for the year.

Electric power sector consumption of natural gas


We forecast natural gas consumption in the U.S. electric power sector will average 40.1 Bcf/d in
September, a record for the month and an increase of 7%, or 2.7 Bcf/d, from the previous record set in
September 2022. Natural gas consumption for electric power also set monthly records of 47.3 Bcf/d in
both July and August, based on STEO estimates. We forecast U.S. natural gas consumption in the electric
power sector to average 35.3 Bcf/d for all of 2023, an increase of 6%, or 2.1 Bcf/d, from the previous
record set in 2022.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 7


September 2023

U.S. natural gas consumption for electric power in summer months


billion cubic feet per day
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
June July August September
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023
Note: September 2023 is a forecast.

In the United States, natural gas provides most of the fuel for the increase in summer electricity
generation. U.S. natural gas consumption for electric power has set records the past two summers as
hot weather has increased demand for air conditioning across the country, particularly in largely
populated areas such as Texas, Florida, and Southern California. Increases in air-conditioning demand
have led to increases in overall electricity generation. The portion of electricity generation that comes
from natural gas has also risen the past two summers reflecting a decline in coal-fired electricity
generation, resulting from the retirement of coal-fired power plants. In 2023, natural gas prices for the
electric power sector have averaged about $2.65/MMBtu from June through August, making natural gas
a more competitive source of electricity generation compared with coal. In addition, several new natural
gas-fired power plants entered service in 2022 and 2023, which increased the electric generation
capacity available from natural gas.

In 2024, we forecast annual U.S. natural gas consumption in the power sector to decline between 1 to 2
Bcf/d in (about 4%) compared with 2023. This decline reflects competition from growing electric
generation capacity from renewable energy sources, and it drives a small decline in total natural gas
consumption next year.

Electricity, coal, and renewables


Electricity generation
We expect that high temperatures over much of the nation this summer have raised U.S. electricity
generation by about 2% during the third quarter of 2023 (3Q23) compared with 3Q22. The increase
comes after relatively low electricity demand in the first half of 2023 reduced generation by 4%.

We expect U.S. natural gas-fired power plants will generate a record of more than 1,700 billion
kilowatthours (kWh) in 2023, an increase of 7% from 2022. Increased U.S. natural gas generation has

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 8


September 2023

been stimulated by a substantial decline in fuel costs, which we forecast to average near $3.30 per
million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, down more than 50% from 2022. Between 8 gigawatts
(GW) and 9 GW of new natural gas-fired generating capacity this year is also contributing to the
increased generation. Although natural gas-fired generation will remain the main source of U.S.
electricity in 2024, we forecast that it will decline by 3% in 2024 because of increased generation from
renewable energy sources.

Solar and wind have been a growing source of U.S. electricity generation in recent years. The addition of
new generating capacity from solar (up by 11 GW) and wind (up by 8 GW) slowed slightly in 2022
compared with 2021 due to supply chain issues that raised costs. However, favorable financial incentives
now in place are driving increases in utility-scale solar capacity of 26 GW in 2023 and 33 GW in 2024,
which would be the most solar installations for any year on record.

Renewable capacity additions tend to occur at the end of the calendar year and so affect generation
trends the following year. We forecast U.S. generation from renewables other than hydropower will
increase by 22 billion kWh in 2023 (up 4%) and by 91 billion kWh in 2024 (up 14%).

Electricity prices
We forecast the average price of electricity to U.S. residential customers will increase by 4% in 2023 to
15.7 cents/kWh. Electricity prices rose about 11% in 2022 to 15.1 cents/kWh due to increases in the cost
of producing electricity. Reductions in the wholesale price of electricity, largely due to lower natural gas
prices in 2023, should help lower residential prices in the future; our forecast shows average U.S.
residential electricity prices declining slightly in 2024 to 15.6 cents/kWh.

Some of the lowest retail electricity prices in the United States are in the midwestern states. For
example, the residential price in the West North Central Census Division averaged about 13 cents/kWh
in 2022, and wholesale prices at the Midcontinent ISO averaged 7.4 cents/kWh. In contrast, residential

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 9


September 2023

electricity prices in New England averaged 25 cents/kWh in 2022, and the ISO-New England wholesale
price averaged 9.2 cents/kWh.

Wholesale power prices are good indicators of the current costs of electricity generation. But retail
prices also reflect longer-term costs such as maintaining the transmission and distribution system and
procuring capacity to supply future demand. A lag exists between when costs are incurred and when
they are reflected on retail electricity bills. These longer-term cost components tend to cause retail price
increases over time, despite fluctuations in wholesale electricity prices.

We forecast that wholesale prices for both the Midcontinent and New England independent system
operators in 2023 and 2024 will average about 40%–50% lower than in 2022. Electricity customers in the
West North Central Census Division may see slightly lower rates in 2023 and 2024, reflecting the lower
near-term costs of power generation. However, long-term costs of supplying power continue to increase
in New England because of capacity constraints in the region and the reliance on high-cost petroleum-
fired electricity generation during periods of very cold weather. These dynamics are reflected in our
expected New England retail rate increase of 16% in 2023 followed by a 2% reduction in 2024.

Coal markets
Coal production in our forecast falls to 583 million short tons (MMst) in 2023, 2% less than the 597
MMst mined in 2022. We expect a steeper decline in 2024 when coal production drops 20% to 464
MMst. The reduction in 2024 is due largely to a 20% decrease in electric power sector coal use this year.
The delayed response of production to the drop in coal-fired generation results from coal producers
fulfilling supply contracts already in place for 2023 and the contracts not being renewed for 2024.

At prevailing prices, coal-fired plants are unable to compete effectively with lower-priced natural gas-
fired and renewable energy generation. Poor economics for coal are also resulting in an estimated 9.8
GW (5%) of coal-fired generating capacity being permanently retired this year. Because of greatly

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 10


September 2023

reduced power generation from coal, we forecast that inventories of coal held by power companies will
increase 60% in 3Q23 compared with 3Q22. Even though we forecast coal stocks to decline slightly by
early 2024, the gap between coal produced and consumed will remain wide in 2023 compared with
2022, when high natural gas prices increased summer demand for coal, but labor shortages slowed coal
production and delivery, depleting coal stocks.

Coal stocks allow utilities to generate electricity in times of high demand and when coal production is
low or coal delivery is slow. Almost 60 GW of coal-fired generation has retired since the end of 2018, a
reduction of 25%, and because older units are usually retired first, the current fleet is more energy
efficient and needs less stock to produce the same amount of burn days. As of the end of August, we
estimate utilities held coal stocks that would cover 140 days of power burn, compared with an average
of 76 days over the past five Augusts.

Economy, Weather, and CO2


U.S. macroeconomics
Our U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. We incorporate
STEO energy price forecasts into the model to generate the final macroeconomic assumptions.

Our forecast assumes U.S. real GDP growth will average 2.2% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. We increased
the GDP forecast after data for second-quarter 2023 (2Q23) GDP growth from the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis was stronger than what we had assumed in last month’s STEO.

Inflation, measured as the 12-month growth rate of the Consumer Price Index, declined from 6.3% in
January to 3.5% in August, but it remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2.0%. The decline in
inflation was not accompanied by the previously expected rise in the unemployment rate. In the January
2023 STEO, our forecast showed the unemployment rate peaking at 5.2% in 4Q23. Our forecast now

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 11


September 2023

assumes the unemployment rate will average 3.5% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024. Both estimates were
revised lower by 0.1 percentage point from the August STEO. Our forecast currently assumes the
Federal Reserve will raise the target range for the Federal Funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.50-
5.75% before the end of 2024.

Emissions
Total energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in our forecast decrease by 3% in 2023 compared
with 2022. The largest reduction in CO2 emissions comes from reduced use of coal, with emissions

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 12


September 2023

declining by 20% relative to 2022. Emissions from petroleum decrease by 1%, and emissions from
natural gas increase by 2%.

Our current forecasts of CO2 emissions in 2023 are 2% lower than what we forecast in the September
2022 STEO. The difference is primarily a result of a downward revision in coal-related emissions, which
we forecast to be 16% lower than last year’s estimates. The decrease in coal emissions is partially offset
by an increase in natural gas emissions, which we forecast to be 6% higher than last year’s forecast. The
changes in the coal and natural gas forecasts are mostly due to fuel switching from coal to natural gas
for electric power generation. Relative prices between natural gas and coal are often the primary
consideration in switching between the two fuels. We forecast the cost of generating electric power
from coal in 2023 to be 10% higher than what we predicted in September 2022, while the cost of power
generation from natural gas in 2023 is nearly half of what we anticipated in the September 2022 STEO.
Petroleum-related CO2 emissions are about 2% lower in 2023 compared with the September 2022 STEO.
This decrease largely reflects the recent reductions petroleum consumption related to our incorporation
of changes to the Petroleum Supply Monthly. These changes reduced our estimates of petroleum-
related emissions because natural gasoline and unfinished oils we previously assessed were being
consumed in the United States were actually being blended into crude oil and either exported and
consumed elsewhere or run through U.S. refineries and consumed as other products. Total CO2
emissions in our forecast remain relatively unchanged between 2023 and 2024.

Weather
We forecast that the United States will average 222 cooling degree days (CDDs) in September, 22 more
CDDs than during September 2022 and 18 CDDs more than the ten-year September average. As the
summer comes to an end in 3Q23, we expect an average of 1,481 CDDs in all of 2023, about 5% fewer
CDDs than in 2022.

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook 13


Short-Term Energy Outlook
Chart Gallery

September 12, 2023

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price and NYMEX confidence intervals
dollars per barrel 95% NYMEX
160 futures price
140 confidence
interval
120 upper bound
100 West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) spot price
80 STEO forecast
NYMEX
60 futures price
40
95% NYMEX
20 futures price
0 confidence
interval
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
lower bound
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023,
CME Group, Bloomberg, L.P., and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days
ending September 7, 2023. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-
money options contracts.

World
World liquid
liquidfuels
fuelsproduction
productionand consumption
and balance
consumption balance
million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
105
105
worldproduction
world production forecast
forecast
100
100
worldconsumption
world consumption
95
95

90
90

85
85

////
80
80
00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
6
6
4
4 impliedstock
implied stock build
build
2
2
0
0
-2
-2 impliedstock
implied stockdraw
draw
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
World liquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsproduction
production World liquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsconsumption
consumption
million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
120
120 120
120
forecast
forecast forecast
forecast
100
100 100
100

80
80 non-OPEC
non-OPEC 80
80 non-OECD
non-OECD

60
60 60
60

40
40 40
40

Organizationofofthe
Organization the Organizationfor
for
20
20 PetroleumExporting
Exporting
20
20 Organization
Petroleum EconomicCooperation
Economic Cooperation
Countries (OPEC) and Development
Development(OECD
(OECD
00
Countries (OPEC)
00 and ) )
2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

Worldcrude
World crudeoil
oiland
and liquid
liquid fuels
fuels production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
OPEC countries
OPEC countries
105
105 5
5
non-OPEC
non-OPEC
4.2
4.2
Eurasia
Eurasia
4
4 NorthAmerica
North America
100
100 Latin America
Latin America
other non-OPEC
other non-OPEC
3
3
net change
net change
95
95
2
2
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.2
1.2

90
90 1
1
monthly history
monthly history
0
0
monthly forecast
monthly forecast
85
85
annual average
annual average -1
-1
//
forecast
forecast
80
0
80 -2
-2
2021
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. crude
U.S. crudeoil
oilproduction
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
14
14 1.0
1.0
0.87
0.87

12
12 0.8
0.8
0.64
0.64 forecast
forecast
10
10 0.6
0.6
0.37
0.37
8
8 monthly history
monthly history 0.4
0.4
monthly forecast
monthly forecast
6
6 0.2
0.2
annual average
annual average

4
4 0.0
0.0
-0.05
-0.05 FederalGulf
Federal Gulf ofofMexico
Mexico (GOM)
(GOM)
2
2 -0.2
-0.2 Lower48
Lower 48excluding
excludingGOMGOM
Alaska
Alaska
net change
net change
0
0 -0.4
-0.4
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
4
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
3
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
surplus crude oil production capacity
million barrels per day
6
forecast
5
2013-2022 average
4

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September
Note: Black line represents 2013-2022 average (2.7 million barrels per day).

Worldliquid
World liquidfuels
fuelsconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
105
105 6
6
5.6
5.6 forecast
forecast

5
5 world
world change
change
100
100
Organizationfor
Organization for
Economic
Economic
4
4 Cooperationand
and
Cooperation
95
95 Development(OECD)
Development (OECD
monthly history
monthly history 3
3 non-OECD
non-OECD
monthly forecast
monthly forecast
90
90 annual average
annual average 2.0
2.0 1.8
1.8
2
2
1.4
1.4
85
85
1
1
//
80
80
0 0
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

Annual change in world liquid fuels consumption


million barrels per day
6 5.6 forecast
5
world
4 other non-OECD
Middle East
3 India
2.0 1.8
China
2 other OECD
1.4
United States
1

-1
2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
commercial inventories of crude oil and other liquids
days of supply
100

90

80

70

60
forecast
50
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022
//
40

30
0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

Estimated unplanned liquid fuels production outages among OPEC and non-
OPEC producers
million barrels per day
4.5
4.0 non-OPEC
other
3.5 United States
Canada
3.0
Russia
2.5
OPEC
2.0 Venezuela
1.5 Saudi Arabia
Iran
1.0 Kuwait
0.5 Iraq
Nigeria
0.0
Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. gasoline
U.S. gasolineand
andcrude
crudeoiloil prices
prices Componentsofofannual
Components annual gasoline
gasoline
price changes
price changes
dollars per
dollars pergallon
gallon dollars per
dollars pergallon
gallon
7.00
7.00
monthly retail regular
monthly regulargasoline
gasoline 1.25
6.50
6.50 annual average
annual average gasoline
gasoline 0.95
0.95 forecast
forecast
6.00
6.00 monthly Brent crude
monthly crudeoil
oil
1.00 0.84
0.84
5.50
5.50 annual average
annual average Brent
Brent forecast
forecast 0.75
5.00
5.00
4.50
4.50 0.50
4.00
4.00 0.25
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00 0.00
2.50
2.50 Brent
Brent crude
crudeoil
oilprice -0.08
-0.08
-0.25 price
-0.25
2.00
2.00 wholesale margin
1.50
1.50 -0.50 wholesale
-0.50 over crudemargin -0.37
-0.37
1.00
1.00 over margin
retail crude
0.50
0.50 -0.75 retail
-0.75 margin
over wholesale
over
net wholesale
change
0.00
0.00 -1.00 net change
-1.00
2020 2021
2020 2021 20222022 2023 2024 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023,
2023,
and and Refinitiv
Refinitiv an LSEGanBusiness
LSEG Business
U.S. diesel
U.S. dieseland
andcrude
crudeoiloil prices
prices Componentsofofannual
Components annual diesel
diesel
price changes
price changes
dollarsper
dollars pergallon
gallon dollars per gallon
dollars per gallon
8.00
8.00 monthly retail
monthly retail diesel
diesel 2.25
2.25
7.50
7.50 forecast
forecast
annual average
annual averagediesel
diesel 2.00
2.00 1.73
1.73
7.00
7.00 monthly Brent
monthly Brent crude
crudeoil
oil 1.75
1.75
6.50
6.50 Brent annual
Brent annual average
average 1.50
1.50 Brent crude
Brent crudeoil
oilprice
price
6.00
6.00 forecast
forecast 1.25
1.25 wholesalemargin
wholesale margin
5.50
5.50 1.00
1.00 over crude
over crude
5.00
5.00 0.73
0.73 retail margin
margin
0.75
0.75 retail
4.50
4.50 0.50
0.50 over wholesale
over wholesale
4.00
4.00 net change
net change
0.25
0.25
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00 0.00
0.00
2.50
2.50 -0.25
-0.25
2.00
2.00 -0.50
-0.50 -0.24
-0.24
1.50
1.50 -0.75
-0.75
-1.00
-1.00 -0.70
-0.70
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50 -1.25
-1.25
0.00
0.00 -1.50
-1.50
2020 2021
2020 2021 20222022 2023 2023 20242024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September 2023,
September
and Refinitiv 2023, andBusiness
an LSEG Refinitiv an LSEG Business

U.S. crude
U.S. crudeoil
oiland
andliquid
liquid fuels
fuels production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
25
25 3.00
3.00
biofuels
biofuels
natural gas
2.50 natural
2.50 gas
20
20 plant liquids
plant liquids
crude oil
2.00 crude oil
2.00 other
other
net change
net change
15
15 1.50
1.50 1.31
1.31 1.33
1.33
total monthly
total monthly production
production
forecast
forecast 1.00
1.00
10
10 annual average
annual average 0.52
0.37
0.37
0.50
0.50
5
5
0.00
0.00
forecast
forecast
0
0 -0.50
-0.50
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
3

U.S. natural
U.S. naturalgas
gasplant
plant liquids
liquids production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
7
7 0.80
0.80 net change
net change
naturalgasoline
natural gasoline
butanes
butanes
6
6 0.60
0.60 propane
propane
0.51
0.51 ethane
ethane
0.41
0.41
5
5 0.40
0.40
0.25
0.25

4
4 monthly production
monthly production 0.20
0.20 0.15
0.15

monthly forecast
monthly forecast

3
3 annual average
annual average 0.00
0.00
forecast
forecast
//
0
2
2 -0.20
-0.20
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
024
2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
3
U.S. liquid
U.S. liquidfuels
fuelsproduct
product supplied
supplied Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
(consumption)
(consumption)
million barrels per day
million barrels per day millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
25
25 2.00
2.00
1.70
1.70 forecast
forecast
1.75
1.75
20
20 1.50
1.50 motor gasoline
motor gasoline
distillate fuel
distillate fuel
1.25
1.25 jet fuel
fuel
15
15 1.00
1.00 hydrocarbon
hydrocarbon gas gas
monthly history
monthly history
liquids
liquids
monthly forecast
monthly forecast 0.75
0.75 other fuels
other fuels
10
10 annual average
annual average 0.50
0.50
0.12
0.12 0.13
0.13 0.16
0.25
0.25
5 0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
0 -0.50
-0.50
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
24
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. hydrocarbon
U.S. hydrocarbongas gas liquids
liquids Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
productsupplied
product supplied(consumption)
(consumption)
millionbarrels
million barrelsper
perday
day million barrels
million barrelsper
perday
day
5
5 0.40
0.40
net change
net change
naturalgasoline
natural gasoline
4
4 0.30
0.30 ethane
ethane
0.21
0.21 propane
propane
0.20
0.20 butanes
butanes
3
3
0.09
0.09 0.12
0.12
0.10
0.10
2
2 monthly history
monthly history
monthly forecast
monthly forecast 0.00
0.00
-0.08
-0.08
1
1 annual average
annual average
-0.10
-0.10
forecast
forecast
0
0 -0.20
-0.20
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
3

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories


million barrels
600
forecast
575
monthly range from Jan 2018 −Dec 2022
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
//
275
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories
million barrels
280
total motor gasoline inventory forecast
260
240
220
200
monthly range from Jan 2018−Dec 2022
180
160
140
120
total distillate fuel inventory
100
80
60
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. commercial propane inventories


million barrels
125
forecast

100

75

50

25
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022
0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023
Note: Excludes propylene.

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels


million barrels per day
8
forecast
6
crude oil
4 net imports
2
total
0 net imports
-2
petroleum
-4 product and
other liquids
-6 net imports
Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September
Note: Petroleum product and other liquids include: gasoline, distillate fuels, hydrocarbon gas liquids,
jet fuel, residual fuel oil, unfinished oils, other hydrocarbons/oxygenates, and other oils.
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL)
million barrels per day
0.5
forecast
0.0 net imports
net exports
-0.5
net trade
-1.0
propane
ethane
-1.5 natural gasoline
butanes
-2.0

-2.5

-3.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX confidence intervals


dollars per million British thermal units
14
12 95% NYMEX
futures price
10 confidence interval
upper bound
8
STEO forecast
6 Henry Hub spot price
NYMEX
futures price
4
95% NYMEX
2 futures price
confidence interval
0 lower bound
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023,
CME Group, and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days
ending September 7, 2023. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-
the-money options contracts.

U.S. natural gas prices


dollars per thousand cubic feet
30
monthly residential price forecast
annual average residential
25 monthly Henry Hub spot price
Henry Hub annual average

20

15

10

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023,
and Refinitiv an LSEG Business
U.S.
U.S. natural
naturalgas
gasproduction, consumption,
production, andand
consumption, net net
imports
imports
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
125
125
consumption
consumption forecast
forecast
100
100
75
75
50
50 production
production
25
25
net trade
net trade(imports
(importsminus
minus exports)
exports)
0
0
-25
-25
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Q1
2018 2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024
30
30
20
20 net storage
net storagebuilds
builds
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20 net storage
net storagewithdrawals
withdrawals
-30
-30
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. marketed
U.S. marketednatural
natural gas
gas production
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
115
115 6
6
U.S. non-Gulf
U.S. non-GulfofofMexico
Mexico 5.3 forecast
forecast
U.S. Gulf
U.S. Gulfof
ofMexico
Mexico
110
110 5
5 net change
net change
4.4
105
105
4
4
3.4
3.4
100
100 2.6
2.6
3
3
95
95
2
2
90
90
monthly history
monthly history
1
1
85
85 monthly forecast
monthly forecast
annual average
annual average 0
0
80
80
//
0
75
75 -1
-1
2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. natural
U.S. naturalgas
gasconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day billion cubic
billion cubicfeet
feetper
perday
day
120
120 5
5 4.5
4.5
110
110 forecast
forecast
4
4
100
100
3
3
90
90
2
2 1.2
1.2
80
80 0.6
0.6
70
70 1
1
60
60 0
0
50
50 -1
-1
monthly history
monthly history
net change
change
40
40 net -0.9
-0.9
monthly forecast
monthly forecast -2
-2 industrial
industrial
30
30 annual average
annual average electricpower
electric power
-3
-3
residentialand
and
20
20 residential
-4
-4 commercial
commercial
10
10 other
other
00 -5
-5
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 24
2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
U.S. working
U.S. workingnatural
naturalgas
gasinin
storage
storage
billion cubicfeet
billion cubic feet forecast
forecast
4,500
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500 storagelevel
level
storage
1,000
1,000
500
500 monthlyrange
monthly rangefrom
from Jan
Jan 2018
2018 − Dec
− Dec 2022
2022
0
0
Jan
Jan 2018
2018 Jan
Jan 2019
2019 Jan
Jan 2020
2020 Jan
Jan 2021
2021 Jan
Jan 2022
2022 Jan
Jan 2023
2023 Jan
Jan 2024
2024
Percentagedeviation
Percentage deviation from
from 2018
2018 − 2022
− 2022 average
average
50%
50%
forecast
forecast
25%
25%

0%
0%

-25%
-25%
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September

U.S. annual natural gas trade


billion cubic feet per day
10
forecast
gross imports
5 as liquefied
natural gas
0 by pipeline

-5 net trade

-10 gross exports


by pipeline
as liquefied
-15
-7.4 natural gas
-20 -10.5 -10.6
-12.9
-15.0
-25
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. monthly
U.S. monthlynominal
nominal residential
residential Annualgrowth
Annual growthininnominal
nominal
electricityprice
electricity price residentialelectricity
residential electricity prices
prices
cents per kilowatthour
cents per kilowatthour percent
percent
18
18 12%
12%
17
17 11%
11% 10.7%
10.7%
forecast
forecast
16
16 10%
10%
15
15
14
14 9%
9%
13
13 8%
8%
12
12 7%
7%
11
11
6%
6%
10
10
99 5%
5%
3.8%
88 4.0%
4%
4%
77 2.7%
history
history 3%
3%
66
55 2%
2% 1.1% 1.1%
forecast
forecast
44 1%
1%
33 0%
0%
22
11 -1%
-1% -0.1%
-0.1%
-0.7%
-0.7%
00 -2%
-2%
2017
2017 2018
2018 2019
2019 2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
U.S. electric
U.S. electricpower
powersector
sector generating
generating capacity U.S. electricity
capacity U.S. electricitygeneration
generationbyby source
source
gigawattsatatend
gigawatts endofofperiod
period forecast
forecast trillion kilowatthours
trillion kilowatthours forecast
forecast
500
500 4.5
4.5
natural
natural
450
450 gas
gas 4.0
4.0
400
400 3.5
3.5
39% 40%
350
350 42%
3.0
3.0
300
300
2.5
2.5
250
250
20% 15%
coal 2.0
2.0 16%
200
200 coal
wind
wind 1.5
1.5 11%
150
150 solar 11% 11%
solar 6%
Hydro- 4% 4%
100
100 Hydro- 1.0
1.0 6% 7%
power 6%
power
nuclear
50
50 nuclear 0.5
0.5 19% 19% 19%
other
0
0 other
sources
sources 0.0
0.0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2018 2020 2022 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. electricity
U.S. electricityconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
billion kilowatthours
billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
billion kilowatthours
425
425 150
150
forecast
forecast
400
400 103
103
100
100 88
88
79
375
375
350
350 50
50
325
325
0
0
300
300
residentialsales
residential sales
275
275 -50
-50 industrialsales
industrial sales
commercial
commercial andand -51
250
250 monthly history
monthly history transportationsales
sales
transportation
-100
-100 direct use
direct use
225
225
//// monthly forecast
monthly forecast net change
net change
00
200
200 -150
-150
2020 2021
2020 2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. coal
U.S. coalproduction
production Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionshort
million shorttons
tons millionshort
million shorttons
tons
70
70 60
60
43
43 forecast
forecast
40
40
60
60 19
20
20
50
50 0
0
-20
-20
40
40 -14
-14
-40
-40
30
30 -60
-60
monthly history
monthly history
-80
-80 Westernregion
Western region
20
20 monthly forecast
monthly forecast
Appalachianregion
Appalachian region
annual average
annual average -100
-100 Interiorregion
Interior region
10
10 net change
net change
-120
-120
-119
-119
0
0 -140
-140
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
U.S. coal
U.S. coalconsumption
consumption Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionshort
million shorttons
tons millionshort
million shorttons
tons
70
70 100
100
69
69 forecast
forecast
75
75 coke plants
coke plants
60
60
electricpower
power
electric
50
50 retail and
retail and
50
50 other industry
other industry
25
25 net change
net change
40
40 0

30
30 -25
-25
-22
-50
-50 -33
20
20 monthly history
monthly history
monthly forecast
monthly forecast -75
-75
10
10 annual average
annual average -100
-100
-97
00 -125
-125
2020
2020 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024
2024 2021
2021 2022
2022 2023
2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023

U.S. electric power coal inventories


million short tons
200
monthly range from Jan 2018 − Dec 2022 forecast
175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. renewable
U.S. renewableenergy
energy supply
supply Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
quadrillionBritish
quadrillion Britishthermal
thermal units
units quadrillionBritish
quadrillion Britishthermal
thermal units
units
16
16 1.40
1.40 1.30
1.30
forecast
forecast
14
14 1.20
1.20 1.02
1.02
1.00
1.00 net change
net change
12
12
solar
solar
0.80
0.80 wind
10
10 0.62
0.62 wind
0.60
0.60 hydropower
hydropower
8 0.42
0.42 liquidbiofuels
liquid biofuels
0.40
0.40 geothermal
geothermal
6 woodbiomass
wood biomass
0.20
0.20 wastebiomass
biomass
waste
4 0.00
0.00
2 -0.20
-0.20
forecast
forecast
0 -0.40
-0.40
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
Note:Hydropower
Note: Hydropowerexcludes
excludes pumped
pumped storage
storage generation.
generation. Liquids
Liquids include
include ethanol,
ethanol, biodiesel,
biodiesel, renewable
renewable
diesel, otherdiesel, other
biofuels, and biofuels, and biofuel
biofuel losses losses and coproducts.Waste
and coproducts.Waste biomass includesbiomass
municipalincludes
waste from
municipal
biogenic waste from
sources, landfillbiogenic
gas, andsources,
non-wood landfill
waste.gas, and non-wood waste.
U.S. annual energy expenditures
share of gross domestic product
10%
9%
8%
forecast
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2023

U.S. winter
U.S. winterheating
heatingdegree
degree days
days
population-weighted
population-weighted
1,000
1,000 4,000
4,000
2020−21
2020−21
cooler
cooler
2021−22
2021−22
2022−23
2022−23 warmer
warmer 3,000
3,000
750
750
2023−24
2023−24
previous 10-winter
previous 10-winter average
average

500
500 2,000
2,000

250
250 1,000
1,000

0 00
October
October November
November December
December January
January February
February March
March total winter
total winter

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023
Note: EIA
Note: EIAcalculations
calculations based
based onon National
National Oceanic
Oceanic and and Atmospheric
Atmospheric Administration
Administration (NOAA)
(NOAA) data.
data. Projections
Projections reflect NOAA's
reflect NOAA's 14-16
14-16 month month outlook.
outlook.

U.S. summer
U.S. summercooling
cooling degree
degree days
days
population-weighted
population-weighted
400
400 1,600
1,600
2021
2021 warmer
warmer
350
350 2022
2022 1,400
1,400
cooler
cooler
300
300 2023
2023
1,200
1,200
2024
2024
250
250 1,000
1,000
2013−2022 average
2013−2022 average
200
200 800
800
150
150 600
600
100
100 400
400
50
50 200
200
0
0 0
April May June July August
August September
September totaltotal
summer
summer
Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023
Note:EIA
Note: EIAcalculations
calculations based
based onon National
National Oceanic
Oceanic and and Atmospheric
Atmospheric Administration
Administration (NOAA)
(NOAA) data.
data. Projections
Projections reflect NOAA's 14-16 month outlook.
U.S. annual
U.S. annualCO2
CO2emissions
emissions
byby source
source Componentsofofannual
Components annual change
change
millionmetric
million metrictons
tons million metric
million metrictons
tons
6,000
6,000 400
400
forecast
forecast 323
323 forecast
forecast
5,500
5,500 total energy
total energy
300
300
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,500 naturalgas
natural gas
200
200 petroleum
petroleum
4,000
4,000 coal
coal
3,500
3,500 100
100 61
61 net change
net change
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500 petroleum
petroleum 0
0
2,000
2,000 natural gas
natural gas -100
-100 -46
-46
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000 -200
-200
coal
500
500 coal -172
-172
0 -300
-300
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

Data source:
Data source:U.S.
U.S.Energy
Energy Information
Information Administration,
Administration, Short-Term
Short-Term Energy
Energy Outlook,
Outlook, September
September 2023 2023
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Energy Production

Crude Oil Production (a)


(million barrels per day) ............................. 11.52 11.77 12.05 12.30 12.63 12.71 12.86 12.94 13.03 13.09 13.15 13.36 11.91 12.78 13.16

Dry Natural Gas Production


(billion cubic feet per day) .......................... 95.1 97.6 99.5 100.3 102.1 102.8 102.7 103.1 104.3 104.7 104.9 105.9 98.1 102.7 104.9

Coal Production
(million short tons) ..................................... 149 146 154 148 151 147 151 134 122 109 120 113 597 583 464

Energy Consumption

Liquid Fuels
(million barrels per day) ............................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.22 20.29 20.00 20.25 20.56 20.37 20.01 20.14 20.30

Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet per day) .......................... 104.9 76.2 80.8 92.6 103.1 78.0 84.6 93.3 103.2 76.6 83.5 92.1 88.6 89.7 88.8

Coal (b)
(million short tons) ..................................... 134 118 145 116 100 91 134 89 98 83 124 88 513 415 394

Electricity
(billion kilowatt hours per day) ................... 10.90 10.68 12.50 10.28 10.57 10.25 12.61 10.35 10.81 10.51 12.84 10.39 11.09 10.95 11.14

Renewables (c)
(quadrillion Btu) .......................................... 3.31 3.51 3.09 3.13 3.33 3.45 3.28 3.39 3.68 3.86 3.63 3.59 13.05 13.46 14.77

Total Energy Consumption (d)


(quadrillion Btu) .......................................... 0.00 23.43 24.92 25.14 25.37 23.56 25.04 24.94 26.05 23.51 25.23 25.01 0.00 98.91 99.80

Energy Prices

Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate Spot


(dollars per barrel) ...................................... 95.18 108.93 93.07 82.69 75.96 73.49 81.48 87.68 86.00 83.00 82.00 82.00 94.91 79.65 83.22

Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot


(dollars per million Btu) .............................. 4.66 7.48 7.99 5.55 2.65 2.16 2.55 2.95 3.32 2.92 3.27 3.46 6.42 2.58 3.24

Coal
(dollars per million Btu) .............................. 2.18 2.26 2.50 2.55 2.57 2.49 2.46 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.37 2.37 2.48 2.40

Macroeconomic

Real Gross Domestic Product


(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ........ 19,924 19,895 20,055 20,182 20,283 20,404 20,515 20,592 20,634 20,692 20,761 20,838 20,014 20,448 20,731
Percent change from prior year ................. 3.7 1.8 1.9 0.9 1.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator


(Index, 2012=100) ...................................... 124.2 126.9 128.3 129.5 130.8 131.5 132.2 133.2 134.1 134.9 135.6 136.4 127.2 132.0 135.2
Percent change from prior year ................. 6.9 7.6 7.1 6.4 5.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.4 7.0 3.7 2.5

Real Disposable Personal Income


(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ........ 15,109 15,022 15,141 15,236 15,550 15,644 15,722 15,809 15,968 16,098 16,205 16,290 15,127 15,681 16,140
Percent change from prior year ................. -12.8 -5.7 -3.8 -1.9 2.9 4.1 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.0 -6.2 3.7 2.9

Manufacturing Production Index


(Index, 2017=100) ...................................... 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.0 99.3 98.9 98.9 99.2 99.6 100.5 99.9 99.2
Percent change from prior year ................. 4.5 3.6 2.8 0.7 -0.2 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -0.8 0.3 2.9 -0.6 -0.7

Weather

U.S. Heating Degree-Days ........................ 2,145 490 54 1,551 1,920 485 58 1,461 2,004 472 75 1,454 4,240 3,924 4,005
U.S. Cooling Degree-Days ........................ 47 466 952 90 68 363 946 104 50 444 968 105 1,555 1,481 1,567
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption.
(c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy.
EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy.
(d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy
Review (MER). Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130;
Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly , DOE/EIA-0520.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System. U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the S&P Global model of the U.S. Economy.
Weather forecasts from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Energy Information Administration.
Table 2. Energy Prices
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)
West Texas Intermediate Spot Average ............................... 95.18 108.93 93.07 82.69 75.96 73.49 81.48 87.68 86.00 83.00 82.00 82.00 94.91 79.65 83.22
Brent Spot Average .............................................................. 101.17 113.84 100.53 88.44 81.04 78.02 86.09 92.68 91.00 88.00 87.00 87.00 100.94 84.46 88.22
U.S. Imported Average ......................................................... 90.06 108.10 92.18 78.14 69.58 71.15 78.58 84.92 83.25 80.25 79.25 79.25 92.83 76.26 80.46
U.S. Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ................................. 92.68 110.12 95.19 83.11 74.44 73.79 80.83 87.15 85.50 82.50 81.50 81.50 95.33 79.11 82.71
U.S. Liquid Fuels (cents per gallon)
Refiner Prices for Resale
Gasoline ............................................................................ 278 376 311 267 262 265 291 277 266 275 267 247 309 274 264
Diesel Fuel ........................................................................ 301 418 357 364 295 245 306 334 299 275 264 278 360 295 279
Fuel Oil .............................................................................. 284 419 344 359 278 233 282 321 290 263 247 271 352 270 271
Refiner Prices to End Users
Jet Fuel ............................................................................. 283 400 340 332 305 233 290 321 291 268 253 262 340 287 268
No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ................................................. 251 259 228 201 196 189 203 221 221 212 210 209 234 204 213
Retail Prices Including Taxes
Gasoline Regular Grade (b) ............................................... 371 450 408 357 338 358 375 369 354 364 356 334 397 360 352
Gasoline All Grades (b) ..................................................... 380 460 419 369 349 369 386 381 366 375 367 346 408 372 364
On-highway Diesel Fuel ..................................................... 431 549 516 508 439 394 425 468 435 406 388 400 501 431 407
Heating Oil ........................................................................ 415 553 497 493 406 353 376 422 406 375 352 391 466 401 391
Propane
Mont Belvieu Spot ............................................................. 130 125 108 80 82 68 68 76 78 78 78 79 111 74 78
Natural Gas
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per thousand cubic feet) ................. 4.84 7.77 8.30 5.76 2.76 2.25 2.65 3.07 3.45 3.03 3.40 3.59 6.67 2.68 3.37
Henry Hub Spot (dollars per million Btu) .............................. 4.66 7.48 7.99 5.55 2.65 2.16 2.55 2.95 3.32 2.92 3.27 3.46 6.42 2.58 3.24
U.S. Retail Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Industrial Sector ................................................................ 6.82 8.24 9.27 7.53 6.23 3.81 3.69 4.31 5.02 4.14 4.25 4.83 7.90 4.58 4.59
Commercial Sector ............................................................ 10.00 11.71 14.12 12.14 11.84 10.53 10.23 8.56 8.42 9.03 9.83 8.67 11.37 10.41 8.76
Residential Sector ............................................................. 12.32 16.57 24.95 15.63 14.73 16.22 20.34 12.08 11.17 13.96 19.97 12.40 14.82 14.52 12.68
U.S. Electricity
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal .................................................................................. 2.18 2.26 2.50 2.55 2.57 2.49 2.46 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.37 2.37 2.48 2.40
Natural Gas ...................................................................... 5.95 7.39 8.23 6.90 4.99 2.64 2.65 3.23 3.85 3.08 3.32 3.77 7.24 3.28 3.48
Residual Fuel Oil (c) .......................................................... 16.81 26.17 26.53 21.27 19.24 17.89 15.79 17.67 17.59 17.45 16.15 16.12 21.80 17.69 16.81
Distillate Fuel Oil ................................................................ 21.23 30.71 26.79 24.48 22.84 38.29 22.16 25.05 23.15 21.26 20.17 21.35 24.89 26.77 21.66
Prices to Ultimate Customers (cents per kilowatthour)
Industrial Sector ................................................................ 7.42 8.41 9.38 8.52 8.12 7.87 8.79 8.17 8.25 7.94 8.81 8.26 8.45 8.24 8.32
Commercial Sector ............................................................ 11.63 12.35 13.38 12.66 12.69 12.46 13.01 12.03 12.09 12.28 13.30 12.44 12.55 12.57 12.56
Residential Sector ............................................................. 13.98 15.07 15.85 15.48 15.74 16.12 15.84 15.19 15.32 15.94 15.88 15.29 15.12 15.73 15.62
(a) Average for all sulfur contents.
(b) Average self-service cash price.
(c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation; prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035.
WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices, the Mt. Belvieu propane spot price, and the Henry Hub natural gas spot price are from
Refinitiv,an LSEG company, via EIA (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3a. International Petroleum and Other Liquids Production, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Production (million barrels per day) (a)
OECD ................................................ 31.75 32.00 32.59 33.03 33.48 33.70 34.29 34.76 34.91 34.69 34.94 35.59 32.35 34.06 35.03
U.S. (50 States) .............................. 19.57 20.24 20.65 20.72 21.05 21.65 21.93 21.88 21.89 22.08 22.22 22.43 20.30 21.63 22.15
Canada ........................................... 5.66 5.51 5.72 5.91 5.79 5.44 5.80 6.10 6.20 5.91 6.12 6.34 5.70 5.78 6.14
Mexico ............................................ 1.91 1.89 1.90 1.90 2.07 2.16 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.08 2.06 2.03 1.90 2.11 2.07
Other OECD ................................... 4.61 4.35 4.32 4.49 4.56 4.45 4.45 4.68 4.72 4.62 4.54 4.79 4.44 4.54 4.67
Non-OECD ........................................ 67.20 66.86 68.26 68.05 67.52 67.53 66.66 66.76 67.29 67.98 68.30 67.81 67.60 67.12 67.85
OPEC .............................................. 33.75 33.76 34.71 34.43 33.95 33.71 32.70 32.98 33.76 33.78 33.87 33.61 34.17 33.33 33.76
Crude Oil Portion ......................... 28.19 28.33 29.23 28.92 28.46 28.37 27.30 27.54 28.23 28.38 28.43 28.13 28.67 27.91 28.30
Other Liquids (b) .......................... 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.34 5.40 5.44 5.53 5.40 5.44 5.48 5.50 5.42 5.46
Eurasia ............................................ 14.39 13.39 13.56 13.90 14.00 13.56 13.42 13.56 13.61 13.59 13.53 13.65 13.81 13.63 13.60
China ............................................... 5.18 5.18 5.05 5.09 5.32 5.32 5.25 5.32 5.27 5.29 5.29 5.33 5.12 5.30 5.30
Other Non-OECD ........................... 13.89 14.53 14.94 14.63 14.26 14.94 15.30 14.91 14.64 15.31 15.61 15.22 14.50 14.85 15.20
Total World Production ...................... 98.96 98.87 100.85 101.07 101.00 101.23 100.95 101.52 102.20 102.67 103.24 103.39 99.94 101.18 102.88

Non-OPEC Production ...................... 65.21 65.11 66.14 66.64 67.05 67.52 68.26 68.54 68.44 68.89 69.37 69.78 65.78 67.85 69.12

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c)


OECD ................................................ 45.63 45.11 46.22 45.63 45.19 45.40 46.16 46.43 45.60 45.19 46.14 46.15 45.65 45.80 45.77
U.S. (50 States) .............................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.22 20.29 20.00 20.25 20.56 20.37 20.01 20.14 20.30
U.S. Territories ............................... 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.11
Canada ........................................... 2.24 2.21 2.38 2.30 2.24 2.25 2.35 2.33 2.28 2.23 2.33 2.31 2.28 2.29 2.29
Europe ............................................ 13.19 13.43 14.04 13.35 13.06 13.37 13.97 13.73 13.21 13.36 13.77 13.53 13.50 13.54 13.47
Japan .............................................. 3.70 3.03 3.19 3.56 3.72 3.02 3.12 3.45 3.57 2.96 3.06 3.39 3.37 3.32 3.24
Other OECD ................................... 6.30 6.33 6.37 6.45 6.39 6.27 6.38 6.51 6.42 6.28 6.30 6.43 6.36 6.39 6.36
Non-OECD ........................................ 52.83 53.49 53.86 53.86 54.63 55.35 55.37 55.33 56.21 56.72 56.67 56.63 53.51 55.17 56.56
Eurasia ............................................ 4.28 4.43 4.73 4.65 4.33 4.49 4.81 4.72 4.46 4.62 4.94 4.85 4.53 4.59 4.72
Europe ............................................ 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.75 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.76 0.76 0.77
China ............................................... 15.12 15.10 15.09 15.28 15.89 16.08 15.76 15.97 16.29 16.49 16.16 16.38 15.15 15.93 16.33
Other Asia ....................................... 13.74 13.75 13.41 13.84 14.29 14.37 13.78 14.08 14.87 14.85 14.24 14.56 13.69 14.13 14.63
Other Non-OECD ........................... 18.95 19.45 19.86 19.32 19.37 19.66 20.26 19.79 19.83 20.00 20.55 20.07 19.39 19.77 20.11
Total World Consumption .................. 98.46 98.60 100.08 99.49 99.82 100.75 101.53 101.75 101.81 101.91 102.80 102.78 99.16 100.97 102.33

Total Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day)
U.S. (50 States) ................................. 0.80 0.51 0.45 0.41 -0.08 -0.11 0.04 0.28 -0.09 -0.39 0.00 0.36 0.54 0.03 -0.03
Other OECD ...................................... -0.09 -0.29 -0.48 -0.26 0.32 -0.47 0.17 -0.02 -0.09 -0.12 -0.13 -0.31 -0.28 0.00 -0.16
Other Stock Draws and Balance ....... -1.20 -0.49 -0.74 -1.73 -1.42 0.09 0.37 -0.03 -0.21 -0.26 -0.30 -0.67 -1.04 -0.24 -0.36
Total Stock Draw ............................ -0.50 -0.26 -0.77 -1.59 -1.18 -0.48 0.58 0.24 -0.39 -0.76 -0.44 -0.62 -0.78 -0.21 -0.55

End-of-period Commercial Crude Oil and Other Liquids Inventories (million barrels)
U.S. Commercial Inventory ............... 1,154 1,180 1,216 1,223 1,231 1,264 1,256 1,230 1,238 1,273 1,273 1,241 1,223 1,230 1,241
OECD Commercial Inventory ............ 2,604 2,657 2,736 2,767 2,746 2,822 2,798 2,774 2,790 2,836 2,848 2,844 2,767 2,774 2,844
(a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
(b) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gain. Includes other unaccounted-for liquids.
(c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly ,
DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering.
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia,
Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkiye, United Kingdom, and United States.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum and Other Liquids Production (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024

North America ....................................................... 27.14 27.65 28.27 28.54 28.91 29.25 29.84 30.08 30.19 30.07 30.40 30.80 27.90 29.52 30.36
Canada .................................................................... 5.66 5.51 5.72 5.91 5.79 5.44 5.80 6.10 6.20 5.91 6.12 6.34 5.70 5.78 6.14
Mexico ..................................................................... 1.91 1.89 1.90 1.90 2.07 2.16 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.08 2.06 2.03 1.90 2.11 2.07
United States ........................................................... 19.57 20.24 20.65 20.72 21.05 21.65 21.93 21.88 21.89 22.08 22.22 22.43 20.30 21.63 22.15

Central and South America ................................. 5.83 6.41 6.86 6.58 6.31 6.94 7.30 6.92 6.68 7.38 7.68 7.30 6.42 6.87 7.26
Argentina ................................................................. 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.85 0.87 0.89 0.92 0.79 0.83 0.88
Brazil ....................................................................... 3.33 3.79 4.15 3.78 3.55 4.14 4.47 4.04 3.76 4.32 4.60 4.20 3.76 4.05 4.22
Colombia .................................................................. 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.78
Ecuador ................................................................... 0.48 0.47 0.49 0.49 0.46 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.50 0.48 0.48 0.49
Guyana .................................................................... 0.12 0.24 0.32 0.35 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.41 0.48 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.26 0.38 0.57

Europe ................................................................... 4.04 3.76 3.81 3.93 4.01 3.92 3.91 4.14 4.17 4.08 4.00 4.26 3.89 4.00 4.13
Norway .................................................................... 1.97 1.74 1.91 1.99 2.03 2.03 1.98 2.09 2.11 2.04 2.05 2.22 1.90 2.03 2.11
United Kingdom ....................................................... 0.97 0.91 0.80 0.84 0.87 0.79 0.83 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.81 0.89 0.88 0.85 0.88

Eurasia ................................................................... 14.39 13.39 13.56 13.90 14.00 13.56 13.42 13.56 13.61 13.59 13.53 13.65 13.81 13.63 13.60
Azerbaijan ................................................................ 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.63 0.64
Kazakhstan .............................................................. 2.01 1.77 1.62 1.92 2.02 1.97 1.90 1.97 1.96 1.94 1.91 1.99 1.83 1.96 1.95
Russia ..................................................................... 11.30 10.59 10.92 10.95 10.95 10.57 10.48 10.54 10.61 10.61 10.58 10.61 10.94 10.64 10.60
Turkmenistan ........................................................... 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27

Middle East ............................................................ 3.23 3.29 3.34 3.28 3.22 3.21 3.17 3.18 3.21 3.20 3.20 3.20 3.28 3.20 3.20
Oman ....................................................................... 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.06 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.03
Qatar ....................................................................... 1.85 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.86

Asia and Oceania ................................................. 9.16 9.17 8.87 8.98 9.21 9.24 9.22 9.27 9.23 9.23 9.22 9.25 9.04 9.24 9.23
Australia ................................................................... 0.44 0.47 0.39 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.43 0.42 0.40
China ....................................................................... 5.18 5.18 5.05 5.09 5.32 5.32 5.25 5.32 5.27 5.29 5.29 5.33 5.12 5.30 5.30
India ......................................................................... 0.88 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.85 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.89 0.91
Indonesia ................................................................. 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.83 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.83 0.80
Malaysia .................................................................. 0.61 0.60 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.57 0.60 0.59 0.57

Africa ..................................................................... 1.40 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.43 1.39 1.34
Egypt ....................................................................... 0.66 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.67 0.66 0.61
South Sudan ............................................................ 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.17

Total non-OPEC liquids ......................................... 65.21 65.11 66.14 66.64 67.05 67.52 68.26 68.54 68.44 68.89 69.37 69.78 65.78 67.85 69.12

OPEC non-crude liquids ...................................... 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.34 5.40 5.44 5.53 5.40 5.44 5.48 5.50 5.42 5.46
Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude ............................ 70.77 70.54 71.62 72.16 72.54 72.86 73.66 73.98 73.97 74.29 74.81 75.26 71.27 73.26 74.58

Unplanned non-OPEC Production Outages ......... 0.76 1.31 0.78 0.56 0.56 1.02 - - - - - - 0.85 - -
- = no data available
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, Venezuela.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, biofuels, other liquids, and refinery processing gains.
Not all countries are shown in each region, and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3c. OPEC Crude Oil (excluding condensates) Production (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Crude Oil
Algeria ............................................................... 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.98 - - - - - - 1.00 - -
Angola ............................................................... 1.15 1.19 1.16 1.10 1.08 1.14 - - - - - - 1.15 - -
Congo (Brazzaville) .......................................... 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.25 - - - - - - 0.27 - -
Equatorial Guinea ............................................. 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06 - - - - - - 0.09 - -
Gabon ............................................................... 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.20 0.21 - - - - - - 0.20 - -
Iran .................................................................... 2.55 2.53 2.53 2.56 2.60 2.74 - - - - - - 2.54 - -
Iraq .................................................................... 4.30 4.42 4.55 4.51 4.41 4.19 - - - - - - 4.45 - -
Kuwait ............................................................... 2.61 2.69 2.80 2.72 2.68 2.58 - - - - - - 2.71 - -
Libya ................................................................. 1.06 0.76 0.95 1.14 1.14 1.15 - - - - - - 0.98 - -
Nigeria .............................................................. 1.27 1.11 0.97 1.07 1.24 1.19 - - - - - - 1.10 - -
Saudi Arabia ..................................................... 10.08 10.30 10.85 10.50 10.02 10.18 - - - - - - 10.43 - -
United Arab Emirates ....................................... 2.94 3.04 3.17 3.09 3.06 2.94 - - - - - - 3.06 - -
Venezuela ......................................................... 0.70 0.72 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.75 - - - - - - 0.69 - -
OPEC Total .................................................... 28.19 28.33 29.23 28.92 28.46 28.37 27.30 27.54 28.23 28.38 28.43 28.13 28.67 27.91 28.30

Other Liquids (a) ................................................ 5.56 5.43 5.48 5.52 5.49 5.34 5.40 5.44 5.53 5.40 5.44 5.48 5.50 5.42 5.46

Total OPEC Production .................................... 33.75 33.76 34.71 34.43 33.95 33.71 32.70 32.98 33.76 33.78 33.87 33.61 34.17 33.33 33.76

Crude Oil Production Capacity


Middle East ....................................................... 25.48 25.46 25.55 25.66 25.90 26.17 26.30 26.32 26.78 26.88 26.93 26.93 25.54 26.17 26.88
Other ................................................................. 5.83 5.45 5.35 5.55 5.71 5.78 5.82 5.82 5.83 5.78 5.74 5.71 5.54 5.79 5.76
OPEC Total .................................................... 31.31 30.91 30.89 31.21 31.61 31.95 32.12 32.14 32.61 32.66 32.67 32.64 31.08 31.96 32.64

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity


Middle East ....................................................... 3.00 2.47 1.65 2.28 3.13 3.53 4.75 4.53 4.30 4.22 4.18 4.45 2.35 3.99 4.29
Other ................................................................. 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06
OPEC Total .................................................... 3.12 2.58 1.67 2.29 3.15 3.58 4.82 4.60 4.37 4.28 4.24 4.51 2.41 4.04 4.35

Unplanned OPEC Production Outages .......... 1.98 2.42 2.50 2.14 1.94 2.13 - - - - - - 2.26 - -
(a) Includes lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, refinery processing gain, and other unaccounted-for liquids.
OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Middle East); Algeria, Angola, Congo (Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea,
Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and Venezuela (Other).
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Forecasts are not published for individual OPEC countries.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 3d. World Petroleum and Other Liquids Consumption (million barrels per day)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024

North America ........................................................ 24.10 24.20 24.46 24.11 23.78 24.54 24.52 24.58 24.17 24.39 24.80 24.61 24.22 24.36 24.50
Canada .................................................................... 2.24 2.21 2.38 2.30 2.24 2.25 2.35 2.33 2.28 2.23 2.33 2.31 2.28 2.29 2.29
Mexico ..................................................................... 1.76 1.99 1.96 1.95 1.87 1.90 1.94 1.96 1.88 1.91 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.90
United States ........................................................... 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.22 20.29 20.00 20.25 20.56 20.37 20.01 20.14 20.30

Central and South America ................................. 6.27 6.43 6.57 6.54 6.38 6.54 6.63 6.56 6.43 6.58 6.68 6.61 6.45 6.53 6.58
Brazil ....................................................................... 2.85 2.93 3.02 3.02 2.95 3.00 3.08 3.06 2.97 3.02 3.10 3.08 2.96 3.02 3.04

Europe ................................................................... 13.93 14.19 14.80 14.11 13.81 14.13 14.74 14.50 13.96 14.13 14.55 14.31 14.26 14.30 14.24

Eurasia ................................................................... 4.28 4.43 4.73 4.65 4.33 4.49 4.81 4.72 4.46 4.62 4.94 4.85 4.53 4.59 4.72
Russia ..................................................................... 3.27 3.36 3.64 3.50 3.30 3.39 3.69 3.54 3.39 3.48 3.78 3.63 3.44 3.48 3.57

Middle East ............................................................ 8.92 9.28 9.67 9.02 9.17 9.29 9.88 9.29 9.48 9.49 10.03 9.43 9.23 9.41 9.61

Asia and Oceania ................................................. 36.50 35.62 35.50 36.58 37.82 37.23 36.49 37.48 38.68 38.06 37.24 38.25 36.05 37.25 38.06
China ....................................................................... 15.12 15.10 15.09 15.28 15.89 16.08 15.76 15.97 16.29 16.49 16.16 16.38 15.15 15.93 16.33
Japan ....................................................................... 3.70 3.03 3.19 3.56 3.72 3.02 3.12 3.45 3.57 2.96 3.06 3.39 3.37 3.32 3.24
India ......................................................................... 5.08 5.07 4.84 5.18 5.29 5.46 5.10 5.43 5.64 5.71 5.33 5.67 5.04 5.32 5.59

Africa ..................................................................... 4.45 4.45 4.34 4.48 4.53 4.54 4.46 4.62 4.62 4.64 4.56 4.72 4.43 4.54 4.64

Total OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ............... 45.63 45.11 46.22 45.63 45.19 45.40 46.16 46.43 45.60 45.19 46.14 46.15 45.65 45.80 45.77
Total non-OECD Liquid Fuels Consumption ........ 52.83 53.49 53.86 53.86 54.63 55.35 55.37 55.33 56.21 56.72 56.67 56.63 53.51 55.17 56.56

Total World Liquid Fuels Consumption ............... 98.46 98.60 100.08 99.49 99.82 100.75 101.53 101.75 101.81 101.91 102.80 102.78 99.16 100.97 102.33

Real Gross Domestic Product (a)


World Index, 2015 Q1 = 100 .................................... 121.9 122.4 123.5 124.2 125.2 126.1 126.9 127.6 128.1 129.1 130.2 131.4 123.0 126.4 129.7
Percent change from prior year ............................. 4.3 3.4 3.3 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.3 2.8 2.6
OECD Index, 2015 = 100 ......................................... 113.4 114.9 115.6
Percent change from prior year ............................. 2.9 1.3 0.7
Non-OECD Index, 2015 = 100 ................................. 129.0 134.1 139.6
Percent change from prior year ............................. 3.6 4.0 4.1

Nominal U.S. Dollar Index (b)


Index, 2015 Q1 = 100 .............................................. 109.5 112.8 117.1 118.4 114.1 113.5 113.5 114.0 114.3 114.4 114.2 113.8 114.5 113.8 114.2
Percent change from prior year ............................. 2.8 6.4 9.0 8.6 4.2 0.6 -3.0 -3.7 0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.2 6.7 -0.6 0.4
(a) GDP values for the individual countries in the indexes are converted to U.S. dollars at purchasing power parity and then summed to create values for the world, OECD, and non-OECD. Historical and
forecast data are from Oxford Economics, and quarterly values are reindexed to 2015 Q1 by EIA.
(b) Data source is the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index. An increase in the index indicates an appreciation of the U.S. dollar against a
basket of currencies and a decrese in the index indicates a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies. Historical and forecast data are from Oxford Economics, and quarterly values are
reindexed to 2015 Q1 by EIA.
- = no data available
OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia,
Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkiye, United Kingdom, and United States.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Energy Information Administration International Energy Statistics (https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world) and Oxford Economics.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil Supply
Domestic Production (a) .................................................. 11.52 11.77 12.05 12.30 12.63 12.71 12.86 12.94 13.03 13.09 13.15 13.36 11.91 12.78 13.16
Alaska .......................................................................... 0.45 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.43 0.41 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.43 0.41
Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ............................................ 1.66 1.70 1.77 1.79 1.87 1.76 1.86 1.90 1.94 1.93 1.85 1.89 1.73 1.85 1.90
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ........................................ 9.42 9.63 9.85 10.06 10.31 10.52 10.59 10.60 10.66 10.75 10.90 11.06 9.74 10.51 10.85
Transfers to Crude Oil Supply .......................................... 0.41 0.37 0.42 0.48 0.39 0.51 0.49 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.37
Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ................................................. 3.06 2.81 2.75 2.20 2.27 2.51 2.62 2.48 2.23 2.62 2.64 1.96 2.71 2.47 2.36
SPR Net Withdrawals ...................................................... 0.31 0.80 0.84 0.48 0.01 0.26 -0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.61 0.05 0.00
Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals ........................... 0.08 -0.04 -0.12 -0.01 -0.39 0.12 0.40 -0.04 -0.35 0.09 0.17 -0.11 -0.02 0.02 -0.05
Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ................................................. 0.20 0.45 0.38 0.41 0.34 0.03 0.12 0.32 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.37 0.36 0.20 0.36
Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ...................................... 15.58 16.15 16.31 15.86 15.25 16.15 16.31 15.70 15.28 16.15 16.30 15.58 15.98 15.85 15.83
Other Supply
Refinery Processing Gain ................................................ 0.97 1.08 1.06 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.01 0.96 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99
Natural Gas Plant Liquids Production .............................. 5.66 5.96 6.13 5.97 6.01 6.42 6.51 6.43 6.41 6.47 6.53 6.57 5.93 6.34 6.49
Renewables and Oxygenate Production (e) ..................... 1.20 1.20 1.18 1.23 1.24 1.29 1.33 1.29 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.29 1.20 1.29 1.29
Fuel Ethanol Production ............................................... 1.02 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.00 1.00 1.04 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.01 0.98
Petroleum Products Adjustment (f) .................................. 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.22
Petroleum Products Transfers to Crude Oil Supply .......... -0.41 -0.37 -0.42 -0.48 -0.39 -0.51 -0.49 -0.38 -0.36 -0.38 -0.38 -0.36 -0.42 -0.44 -0.37
Product Net Imports (c) ................................................... -3.54 -4.02 -4.12 -3.90 -3.91 -3.71 -4.36 -4.29 -4.03 -4.04 -4.25 -4.38 -3.90 -4.07 -4.18
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ............................................. -2.07 -2.36 -2.25 -2.26 -2.47 -2.39 -2.48 -2.51 -2.55 -2.62 -2.58 -2.62 -2.24 -2.46 -2.59
Unfinished Oils ............................................................. 0.17 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.32 0.31 0.24 0.30 0.32 0.21 0.26 0.29 0.27
Other HC/Oxygenates .................................................. -0.07 -0.10 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -0.07 -0.06 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04 -0.04 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ........................................ 0.38 0.60 0.48 0.40 0.45 0.67 0.56 0.39 0.49 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.46 0.52 0.49
Finished Motor Gasoline ............................................... -0.69 -0.75 -0.79 -0.84 -0.75 -0.58 -0.77 -0.74 -0.82 -0.72 -0.75 -0.74 -0.77 -0.71 -0.76
Jet Fuel ........................................................................ -0.03 -0.06 -0.10 -0.03 -0.05 0.01 -0.07 0.05 0.13 0.22 0.21 0.19 -0.06 -0.02 0.19
Distillate Fuel Oil .......................................................... -0.74 -1.08 -1.24 -1.00 -0.76 -0.97 -1.11 -1.05 -0.83 -1.12 -1.23 -1.03 -1.02 -0.97 -1.05
Residual Fuel Oil .......................................................... 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.09 0.01 -0.04 -0.04 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.07
Other Oils (g) ............................................................... -0.58 -0.64 -0.53 -0.54 -0.58 -0.61 -0.70 -0.76 -0.66 -0.75 -0.74 -0.79 -0.57 -0.66 -0.74
Product Inventory Net Withdrawals .................................. 0.42 -0.25 -0.26 -0.06 0.30 -0.49 -0.31 0.32 0.26 -0.48 -0.17 0.47 -0.04 -0.05 0.02
Total Supply ....................................................................... 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.67 20.38 20.22 20.29 20.00 20.25 20.56 20.37 20.01 20.14 20.30

Consumption (million barrels per day)


Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ................................................ 3.77 3.18 3.17 3.32 3.40 3.36 3.36 3.68 3.82 3.34 3.39 3.73 3.36 3.45 3.57
Other HC/Oxygenates ..................................................... 0.14 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.28 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.17 0.24 0.25
Unfinished Oils ................................................................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Motor Gasoline ................................................................ 8.57 9.00 8.93 8.74 8.67 9.13 8.95 8.75 8.44 8.89 8.98 8.62 8.81 8.87 8.73
Fuel Ethanol blended into Motor Gasoline .................... 0.88 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.94 0.95 0.91 0.87 0.92 0.94 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.91
Jet Fuel ........................................................................... 1.45 1.61 1.60 1.58 1.55 1.67 1.69 1.64 1.64 1.78 1.83 1.78 1.56 1.64 1.76
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................................. 4.22 3.97 3.91 4.00 4.01 3.93 3.81 3.97 4.06 3.95 3.89 4.02 4.03 3.93 3.98
Residual Fuel Oil ............................................................. 0.33 0.30 0.38 0.30 0.29 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.26 0.27 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.28 0.29
Other Oils (g) .................................................................. 1.61 1.78 1.94 1.70 1.53 1.79 1.90 1.66 1.55 1.77 1.90 1.63 1.76 1.72 1.71
Total Consumption ............................................................. 20.09 20.00 20.11 19.85 19.66 20.38 20.22 20.29 20.00 20.25 20.56 20.37 20.01 20.14 20.30

Total Petroleum and Other Liquids Net Imports ............. -0.48 -1.21 -1.37 -1.69 -1.64 -1.20 -1.74 -1.81 -1.80 -1.42 -1.61 -2.42 -1.19 -1.60 -1.81

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Commercial Inventory
Crude Oil (excluding SPR) ............................................... 414.2 417.8 429.0 430.1 465.4 454.7 418.1 421.4 453.1 444.9 429.4 439.5 430.1 421.4 439.5
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids ................................................ 142.1 186.7 243.7 211.1 174.3 225.4 271.0 227.6 188.4 235.0 273.5 228.3 211.1 227.6 228.3
Unfinished Oils ................................................................ 88.1 88.9 82.3 86.4 88.6 87.0 85.6 80.4 90.8 87.9 86.4 78.9 86.4 80.4 78.9
Other HC/Oxygenates ..................................................... 34.4 29.7 27.3 31.6 34.3 30.1 30.4 30.6 32.7 31.5 31.2 31.4 31.6 30.6 31.4
Total Motor Gasoline ....................................................... 238.5 221.0 209.5 224.4 225.3 223.2 216.7 233.6 234.8 232.0 219.7 231.1 224.4 233.6 231.1
Finished Motor Gasoline ............................................... 17.3 17.1 17.6 17.2 14.7 17.6 17.0 17.7 15.4 16.3 18.0 20.3 17.2 17.7 20.3
Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ........................................ 221.2 203.9 191.9 207.2 210.6 205.6 199.7 215.9 219.4 215.7 201.8 210.8 207.2 215.9 210.8
Jet Fuel ........................................................................... 35.6 39.4 36.5 35.0 37.7 42.7 41.6 41.0 39.5 41.2 42.4 39.4 35.0 41.0 39.4
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................................. 114.7 111.3 110.5 118.9 112.3 112.6 117.0 118.7 111.0 115.5 116.5 116.9 118.9 118.7 116.9
Residual Fuel Oil ............................................................. 28.1 29.3 27.4 30.7 29.6 30.4 25.5 25.4 27.1 26.7 25.1 24.6 30.7 25.4 24.6
Other Oils (g) .................................................................. 58.6 56.3 49.3 54.3 63.3 58.3 50.5 51.8 60.8 58.6 49.3 50.7 54.3 51.8 50.7
Total Commercial Inventory ................................................ 1154.2 1180.4 1215.6 1222.6 1230.8 1264.4 1256.3 1230.4 1238.2 1273.3 1273.6 1240.9 1222.6 1230.4 1240.9
Crude Oil in SPR ................................................................ 566.1 493.3 416.4 372.0 371.2 347.2 352.0 352.0 352.0 352.0 352.0 352.0 372.0 352.0 352.0
(a) Includes lease condensate.
(b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
(c) Net imports equal gross imports minus gross exports.
(d) Crude oil adjustment equals the sum of disposition items (e.g. refinery inputs) minus the sum of supply items (e.g. production).
(e) Renewables and oxygenate production includes pentanes plus, oxygenates (excluding fuel ethanol), and renewable fuels. Beginning in January 2021, renewable fuels includes biodiesel, renewable diesel,
renewable jet fuel, renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha and gasoline, and other renewable fuels. For December 2020 and prior, renewable fuels includes only biodiesel.
(f) Petroleum products adjustment includes hydrogen/oxygenates/renewables/other hydrocarbons, motor gasoline blending components, and finished motor gasoline.
(g) “Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and
miscellaneous products.
- = no data available
SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve
HC: Hydrocarbons
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances (million barrels per day, except inventories and utilization factor)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
HGL Production
Natural Gas Processing Plants
Ethane .............................................................. 2.35 2.45 2.42 2.39 2.49 2.65 2.68 2.67 2.65 2.68 2.69 2.70 2.41 2.62 2.68
Propane ............................................................ 1.79 1.86 1.94 1.90 1.89 2.00 2.02 1.99 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.05 1.87 1.98 2.03
Butanes ............................................................ 0.93 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.09 1.10 1.13 0.99 1.05 1.10
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... 0.59 0.67 0.74 0.67 0.64 0.73 0.73 0.67 0.65 0.68 0.71 0.68 0.67 0.69 0.68
Refinery and Blender Net Production
Ethane/Ethylene ............................................... 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Propane ............................................................ 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.26 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.27
Propylene (refinery-grade) ............................... 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.28
Butanes/Butylenes ........................................... -0.07 0.26 0.19 -0.15 -0.05 0.28 0.20 -0.19 -0.08 0.27 0.20 -0.19 0.06 0.06 0.05
Renewable Fuels and Oxygenate Plant Net Production
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) .................... -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02

HGL Net Imports


Ethane ................................................................. -0.40 -0.40 -0.42 -0.45 -0.50 -0.49 -0.48 -0.47 -0.49 -0.49 -0.49 -0.52 -0.42 -0.48 -0.50
Propane/Propylene .............................................. -1.20 -1.34 -1.27 -1.27 -1.40 -1.40 -1.44 -1.41 -1.41 -1.47 -1.44 -1.43 -1.27 -1.41 -1.44
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. -0.29 -0.45 -0.37 -0.38 -0.42 -0.41 -0.47 -0.49 -0.47 -0.51 -0.50 -0.50 -0.37 -0.45 -0.50
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... -0.17 -0.17 -0.19 -0.15 -0.15 -0.09 -0.10 -0.14 -0.18 -0.15 -0.15 -0.16 -0.17 -0.12 -0.16

HGL Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 0.43 0.29 0.33 0.54 0.48 0.29 0.31 0.50 0.42 0.29 0.32 0.52 0.40 0.40 0.39
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 0.17 0.17 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.21 0.18

HGL Consumption
Ethane/Ethylene .................................................. 2.10 2.06 1.99 1.94 1.99 2.19 2.18 2.18 2.18 2.17 2.18 2.21 2.02 2.14 2.19
Propane ............................................................... 1.16 0.59 0.64 0.95 0.98 0.62 0.65 1.00 1.13 0.62 0.66 1.02 0.83 0.81 0.86
Propylene (refinery-grade) .................................. 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.29
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.20 0.18 0.28 0.25 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.26 0.21 0.23 0.23 0.23
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

HGL Inventories (million barrels)


Ethane ................................................................. 51.2 51.7 49.9 54.3 53.0 54.2 52.8 55.7 55.8 56.5 58.2 58.2 51.8 53.9 57.2
Propane ............................................................... 36.3 54.1 82.0 76.7 55.8 79.2 97.8 82.2 55.6 72.4 90.3 76.6 76.7 82.2 76.6
Propylene (at refineries only) .............................. 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.7
Butanes/Butylenes .............................................. 35.7 58.8 81.3 54.5 40.2 70.1 90.9 62.0 53.1 80.6 98.6 69.8 54.5 62.0 69.8
Natural Gasoline (Pentanes Plus) ....................... 19.4 22.7 27.2 25.1 22.9 23.4 26.9 25.6 22.7 23.5 23.9 22.8 25.1 25.6 22.8

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs


Crude OIl ............................................................. 15.58 16.15 16.31 15.86 15.25 16.15 16.31 15.70 15.28 16.15 16.30 15.58 15.98 15.85 15.83
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.70 0.66 0.49 0.56 0.71 0.60 0.46 0.51 0.70 0.57 0.61 0.57
Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates ....................... 1.13 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.13 1.20 1.22 1.17 1.14 1.20 1.22 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.18
Unfinished Oils .................................................... -0.06 0.21 0.24 0.15 0.19 0.21 0.18 0.32 0.09 0.31 0.32 0.29 0.14 0.22 0.25
Motor Gasoline Blend Components .................... 0.30 0.81 0.64 0.29 0.34 0.85 0.71 0.44 0.57 0.80 0.75 0.45 0.51 0.59 0.64
Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ................... 17.53 18.83 18.91 18.17 17.58 18.90 18.98 18.34 17.68 18.92 19.10 18.18 18.36 18.45 18.47

Refinery Processing Gain .................................. 0.97 1.08 1.06 1.01 0.97 1.01 1.01 1.01 0.96 1.00 1.01 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99

Refinery and Blender Net Production


Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids .................................... 0.49 0.84 0.75 0.36 0.47 0.83 0.76 0.36 0.46 0.83 0.76 0.36 0.61 0.60 0.60
Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... 9.21 9.74 9.74 9.58 9.28 9.83 9.75 9.66 9.32 9.68 9.80 9.56 9.57 9.63 9.59
Jet Fuel ................................................................ 1.48 1.71 1.67 1.60 1.62 1.72 1.74 1.59 1.49 1.58 1.63 1.56 1.62 1.67 1.57
Distillate Fuel ....................................................... 4.79 5.01 5.15 5.09 4.69 4.91 4.96 5.03 4.80 5.12 5.12 5.06 5.01 4.90 5.03
Residual Fuel ...................................................... 0.27 0.23 0.26 0.25 0.27 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.27 0.23
Other Oils (a) ....................................................... 2.26 2.40 2.40 2.30 2.21 2.35 2.51 2.44 2.31 2.50 2.54 2.44 2.34 2.38 2.45
Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ............ 18.50 19.92 19.97 19.18 18.54 19.91 19.99 19.35 18.64 19.92 20.11 19.18 19.40 19.45 19.46

Refinery Distillation Inputs ................................ 16.12 16.66 16.82 16.34 15.78 16.75 16.79 16.09 15.68 16.54 16.73 15.98 16.48 16.35 16.23
Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity ........... 17.93 17.93 17.98 18.01 18.12 18.27 18.31 18.31 18.31 18.31 18.32 18.33 17.96 18.25 18.32
Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor .............. 0.90 0.93 0.94 0.91 0.87 0.92 0.92 0.88 0.86 0.90 0.91 0.87 0.92 0.90 0.89
(a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still
gas, and miscellaneous products.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;
Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Prices (cents per gallon)
Refiner Wholesale Price .......................... 278 376 311 267 262 265 291 277 266 275 267 247 309 274 264
Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes
PADD 1 ................................................... 364 438 393 341 330 344 360 354 345 352 344 327 384 347 342
PADD 2 ................................................... 352 436 397 345 324 348 358 354 341 355 347 319 383 346 341
PADD 3 ................................................... 341 413 358 300 302 315 333 325 314 322 314 293 353 319 311
PADD 4 ................................................... 360 446 434 358 357 359 391 375 349 365 362 340 401 371 354
PADD 5 ................................................... 452 543 511 478 418 452 475 465 435 443 434 411 497 453 431
U.S. Average ........................................ 371 450 408 357 338 358 375 369 354 364 356 334 397 360 352
Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 380 460 419 369 349 369 386 381 366 375 367 346 408 372 364

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels)


Total Gasoline Inventories
PADD 1 ................................................... 57.0 53.6 54.3 56.4 52.7 57.1 56.9 62.2 60.3 63.2 57.2 59.4 56.4 62.2 59.4
PADD 2 ................................................... 56.5 46.7 44.1 46.6 49.5 45.2 45.6 49.5 48.6 43.6 44.0 51.6 46.6 49.5 51.6
PADD 3 ................................................... 87.0 83.9 80.2 81.4 84.1 85.0 79.6 83.7 87.8 88.2 82.1 82.0 81.4 83.7 82.0
PADD 4 ................................................... 8.1 6.4 6.4 7.4 7.8 6.8 7.4 8.3 8.4 7.1 7.0 7.7 7.4 8.3 7.7
PADD 5 ................................................... 29.9 30.3 24.5 32.6 31.2 29.0 27.3 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.4 30.3 32.6 30.0 30.3
U.S. Total ............................................. 238.5 221.0 209.5 224.4 225.3 223.2 216.7 233.6 234.8 232.0 219.7 231.1 224.4 233.6 231.1
Finished Gasoline Inventories
U.S. Total ............................................. 17.3 17.1 17.6 17.2 14.7 17.6 17.0 17.7 15.4 16.3 18.0 20.3 17.2 17.7 20.3
Gasoline Blending Components Inventories
U.S. Total ............................................. 221.2 203.9 191.9 207.2 210.6 205.6 199.7 215.9 219.4 215.7 201.8 210.8 207.2 215.9 210.8
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD).
See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380;
Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Total Marketed Production ............... 103.27 106.18 108.27 108.90 110.87 112.14 112.06 112.52 113.75 114.20 114.45 115.53 106.67 111.90 114.49
Alaska ........................................... 1.06 1.00 0.96 1.07 1.08 1.01 0.89 0.99 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.98 1.02 0.99 0.94
Federal GOM (a) .......................... 2.05 2.11 2.19 2.12 2.14 1.89 1.99 2.12 2.10 2.03 1.88 1.87 2.12 2.04 1.97
Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ....... 100.16 103.07 105.12 105.71 107.65 109.24 109.19 109.41 110.65 111.25 111.72 112.69 103.53 108.88 111.58
Total Dry Gas Production ............... 95.09 97.59 99.46 100.29 102.13 102.80 102.71 103.12 104.25 104.66 104.89 105.89 98.13 102.69 104.93
LNG Gross Imports ......................... 0.15 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.06
LNG Gross Exports ......................... 11.50 10.80 9.74 10.35 11.45 11.76 11.30 11.90 12.30 12.61 13.09 14.61 10.59 11.60 13.15
Pipeline Gross Imports .................... 8.89 7.73 7.84 8.41 8.45 7.32 7.34 7.49 8.18 6.81 7.04 7.44 8.22 7.64 7.37
Pipeline Gross Exports ................... 8.46 8.52 8.13 8.19 8.91 8.75 9.16 9.31 9.52 8.89 9.21 9.64 8.32 9.03 9.32
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ........ 0.21 0.17 0.18 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.18
Net Inventory Withdrawals .............. 20.14 -10.25 -8.94 2.35 11.95 -11.70 -6.78 3.26 13.93 -12.34 -6.60 3.01 0.75 -0.86 -0.51
Total Supply ....................................... 104.52 75.94 80.72 92.73 102.44 78.08 83.02 92.90 104.81 77.85 83.25 92.33 88.43 89.07 89.55
Balancing Item (b) .............................. 0.33 0.21 0.07 -0.09 0.64 -0.06 1.58 0.45 -1.61 -1.26 0.28 -0.24 0.13 0.65 -0.70
Total Primary Supply .......................... 104.85 76.16 80.80 92.64 103.08 78.02 84.60 93.35 103.20 76.59 83.52 92.08 88.56 89.72 88.84

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)


Residential ...................................... 26.09 7.86 3.57 17.37 23.48 7.27 4.03 16.61 24.82 7.85 4.31 16.63 13.67 12.81 13.39
Commercial ..................................... 15.61 6.67 4.74 11.69 14.53 6.41 5.14 11.73 14.83 6.88 5.31 11.81 9.66 9.43 9.70
Industrial .......................................... 25.46 22.25 21.47 23.51 24.67 22.24 21.46 23.47 24.30 21.28 21.14 23.44 23.16 22.95 22.54
Electric Power (c) ............................ 28.39 30.99 42.36 30.94 30.78 33.34 44.94 32.14 29.41 31.75 43.64 30.69 33.20 35.33 33.89
Lease and Plant Fuel ...................... 5.26 5.41 5.51 5.55 5.65 5.71 5.71 5.73 5.79 5.82 5.83 5.88 5.43 5.70 5.83
Pipeline and Distribution Use .......... 3.86 2.80 2.98 3.41 3.80 2.87 3.13 3.47 3.85 2.82 3.09 3.43 3.26 3.32 3.30
Vehicle Use ..................................... 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.18 0.20
Total Consumption ............................. 104.85 76.16 80.80 92.64 103.08 78.02 84.60 93.35 103.20 76.59 83.52 92.08 88.56 89.72 88.84

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet)


Working Gas Inventory ................... 1,401 2,325 3,146 2,927 1,850 2,900 3,524 3,224 1,957 3,080 3,687 3,410 2,927 3,224 3,410
East Region (d) ............................ 242 482 759 698 334 646 860 750 364 673 864 779 698 750 779
Midwest Region (d) ...................... 296 557 917 831 417 701 1,004 884 430 729 1,014 919 831 884 919
South Central Region (d) ............. 587 885 1,006 1,042 919 1,136 1,119 1,113 831 1,196 1,232 1,194 1,042 1,113 1,194
Mountain Region (d) .................... 90 137 184 158 79 171 235 196 127 166 226 196 158 196 196
Pacific Region (d) ......................... 165 240 247 169 74 216 274 250 180 287 317 293 169 250 293
Alaska ........................................... 21 25 32 30 27 30 34 31 25 28 33 29 30 31 29
(a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico.
(b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand.
(c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer to Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, Notes and Definitions (http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/notes.html) .
- = no data available
LNG: liquefied natural gas.
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly ,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Wholesale/Spot
Henry Hub Spot Price ......... 4.84 7.77 8.30 5.76 2.76 2.25 2.65 3.07 3.45 3.03 3.40 3.59 6.67 2.68 3.37
Residential Retail
New England ....................... 17.69 20.93 26.83 21.72 21.06 20.48 22.75 17.41 17.20 18.45 22.77 18.10 19.87 19.89 18.06
Middle Atlantic ..................... 12.79 15.55 23.86 16.89 15.61 16.05 20.96 13.95 12.88 14.76 21.65 14.65 15.17 15.53 14.30
E. N. Central ....................... 9.81 14.81 25.79 13.17 11.06 13.35 21.35 9.54 8.47 11.84 20.63 9.70 12.45 11.46 10.07
W. N. Central ...................... 11.40 15.25 25.08 13.42 13.34 15.53 22.35 10.42 9.05 11.66 19.37 9.99 13.23 13.18 10.28
S. Atlantic ........................... 13.91 22.11 32.99 17.69 17.32 20.87 25.91 13.92 13.10 17.71 25.84 14.50 17.48 17.23 15.13
E. S. Central ....................... 11.80 17.16 26.38 15.45 13.80 16.69 22.05 12.07 10.77 14.77 22.65 12.29 14.32 14.02 12.46
W. S. Central ...................... 12.61 20.91 30.98 17.56 14.59 19.75 22.88 12.03 9.70 14.71 21.74 12.50 16.35 15.13 12.13
Mountain ............................. 10.31 12.85 19.38 13.44 12.50 13.86 13.48 8.99 8.49 9.93 14.09 9.25 12.39 11.75 9.38
Pacific ................................. 17.07 17.80 20.54 18.95 20.22 17.09 16.49 14.73 15.41 15.20 16.01 14.96 18.20 17.68 15.30
U.S. Average ................... 12.32 16.57 24.95 15.63 14.73 16.22 20.34 12.08 11.17 13.96 19.97 12.40 14.82 14.52 12.68
Commercial Retail
New England ....................... 12.62 14.46 16.23 15.81 15.20 13.67 12.21 10.64 10.85 11.37 11.70 10.84 14.21 13.19 11.02
Middle Atlantic ..................... 10.36 10.78 12.01 11.99 11.95 9.26 7.59 7.69 8.38 7.84 7.59 8.14 11.11 9.63 8.13
E. N. Central ....................... 8.12 10.46 14.23 10.32 9.17 8.74 9.73 6.77 6.63 7.89 9.60 6.98 9.59 8.38 7.16
W. N. Central ...................... 10.22 11.73 15.07 11.32 11.69 11.46 11.19 8.25 7.99 8.42 9.88 8.04 11.12 10.58 8.21
S. Atlantic ........................... 10.52 12.22 14.21 13.08 13.00 11.29 10.86 9.53 9.21 9.96 10.31 9.60 12.06 11.28 9.60
E. S. Central ....................... 10.41 12.80 15.56 13.49 11.93 11.03 11.11 9.17 8.79 9.93 10.98 9.60 12.26 10.74 9.47
W. S. Central ...................... 10.09 12.86 15.00 12.73 11.11 9.84 9.66 8.33 7.62 8.56 9.43 8.60 12.01 9.81 8.32
Mountain ............................. 8.78 9.98 12.60 11.31 10.77 10.79 10.97 8.75 8.32 8.53 9.02 7.69 10.19 10.19 8.24
Pacific ................................. 13.08 13.67 15.58 14.47 16.91 12.60 12.44 11.84 12.10 11.69 12.26 12.05 14.00 13.89 12.03
U.S. Average ................... 10.00 11.71 14.12 12.14 11.84 10.53 10.23 8.56 8.42 9.03 9.83 8.67 11.37 10.41 8.76
Industrial Retail
New England ....................... 11.11 12.09 12.17 13.47 13.53 10.05 7.67 8.12 8.93 8.19 7.24 8.38 12.11 10.09 8.34
Middle Atlantic ..................... 10.80 10.15 11.91 12.72 7.84 4.95 7.65 7.64 8.11 7.56 7.39 7.92 11.26 7.09 7.88
E. N. Central ....................... 7.66 8.72 10.75 10.31 9.24 6.60 6.38 5.78 6.17 6.16 6.03 6.10 8.88 7.29 6.13
W. N. Central ...................... 7.96 8.58 9.59 8.62 8.80 4.87 3.91 4.57 5.36 4.53 4.56 5.28 8.64 5.64 4.97
S. Atlantic ........................... 7.46 8.84 11.14 9.09 7.00 4.83 4.42 4.80 5.49 4.85 5.02 5.48 9.05 5.33 5.23
E. S. Central ....................... 6.53 8.70 10.63 8.03 5.70 3.92 3.83 4.39 5.07 4.50 4.59 5.10 8.34 4.50 4.83
W. S. Central ...................... 5.58 7.69 8.45 5.87 3.59 2.30 2.77 3.27 3.69 3.15 3.55 3.83 6.92 2.98 3.56
Mountain ............................. 7.11 8.39 10.45 9.79 9.39 7.81 7.05 6.10 6.00 5.69 5.87 5.84 8.83 7.80 5.86
Pacific ................................. 8.82 9.02 9.60 9.42 10.75 8.14 7.15 6.96 7.33 6.68 6.75 7.05 9.19 8.28 7.00
U.S. Average ................... 6.82 8.24 9.27 7.53 6.23 3.81 3.69 4.31 5.02 4.14 4.25 4.83 7.90 4.58 4.59
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130.
Natural gas Henry Hub spot price is from Refinitiv,an LSEG company, via EIA (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Supply (million short tons)
Production .................................................. 149.0 145.7 154.3 148.3 151.5 146.6 150.9 134.2 122.2 109.1 119.9 113.3 597.2 583.1 464.5
Appalachia ............................................... 40.2 40.2 40.0 38.4 41.1 40.6 41.2 36.5 34.6 31.3 27.0 26.4 158.8 159.4 119.4
Interior ..................................................... 23.8 26.0 24.7 22.9 25.5 26.1 27.1 24.9 24.5 22.1 22.9 21.2 97.4 103.6 90.7
Western ................................................... 85.0 79.5 89.5 86.9 84.9 79.9 82.6 72.8 63.1 55.7 69.9 65.7 340.9 320.2 254.4
Primary Inventory Withdrawals ................... -1.9 0.0 3.4 -0.3 -2.0 0.0 3.4 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 3.6 0.1 1.2 1.3 2.3
Imports ....................................................... 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.7 6.3 4.5 3.2
Exports ....................................................... 20.4 23.4 21.1 21.0 24.6 24.1 24.0 25.7 25.9 26.9 25.5 26.8 86.0 98.4 105.0
Metallurgical Coal .................................... 10.5 13.1 11.5 11.4 12.4 12.6 12.1 13.0 13.5 14.5 13.6 14.0 46.5 50.1 55.6
Steam Coal ............................................. 9.9 10.3 9.6 9.6 12.2 11.5 11.9 12.7 12.4 12.4 11.9 12.7 39.5 48.3 49.5
Total Primary Supply ..................................... 128.0 123.9 138.5 128.4 125.9 123.5 131.5 109.5 95.3 83.2 99.1 87.3 518.8 490.5 364.9

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ............... 5.9 -1.0 7.0 -9.8 -20.1 -19.7 1.4 -22.0 1.0 -2.2 23.5 -0.8 2.1 -60.3 21.5
Waste Coal (a) ........................................... 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 7.5 7.2 7.2
Total Supply .................................................. 135.7 124.8 147.4 120.5 107.6 105.7 134.8 89.4 98.1 82.8 124.4 88.3 528.4 437.4 393.6

Consumption (million short tons)


Coke Plants ................................................ 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 16.0 16.4 16.7
Electric Power Sector (b) ............................ 122.7 107.3 134.8 105.3 89.8 81.5 125.0 79.1 87.8 73.5 115.0 78.0 469.9 375.3 354.3
Retail and Other Industry ............................ 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.5 5.5 5.4 6.1 6.2 5.2 5.2 6.0 26.7 23.4 22.6
Residential and Commercial .................... 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7
Other Industrial ........................................ 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.3 5.3 5.9 5.9 5.0 5.1 5.8 25.9 22.8 21.9
Total Consumption ....................................... 133.7 117.9 145.2 115.8 100.3 91.0 134.5 89.4 98.1 82.8 124.4 88.3 512.6 415.1 393.6

Discrepancy (c) 2.0 6.9 2.3 4.6 7.3 14.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 22.2 0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons)


Primary Inventories (d) ............................... 21.0 20.9 17.5 17.8 19.8 19.7 16.4 16.5 18.1 17.9 14.3 14.2 17.8 16.5 14.2
Secondary Inventories ................................ 90.5 91.5 84.5 94.3 114.3 134.0 132.6 154.5 153.5 155.7 132.2 133.0 94.3 154.5 133.0
Electric Power Sector .............................. 86.3 87.3 80.1 90.0 110.1 129.2 127.5 149.5 149.3 151.2 127.4 128.3 90.0 149.5 128.3
Retail and General Industry ..................... 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.2 3.0
Coke Plants ............................................. 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
Commercial & Institutional …………… .... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Coal Market Indicators


Coal Miner Productivity
(Tons per hour) ........................................ 6.05 6.05 6.05 6.05 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.80 5.80 5.80 5.80 6.05 5.98 5.80
Total Raw Steel Production
(Million short tons per day) ....................... 0.253 0.253 0.247 0.235 0.236 0.244 0.330 0.306 0.286 0.277 0.280 0.273 0.247 0.279 0.279
Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities
(Dollars per million Btu) ........................... 2.18 2.26 2.50 2.55 2.57 2.49 2.46 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.37 2.37 2.48 2.40
(a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes.
(b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers.
(c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period.
(d) Primary stocks are held at the mines and distribution points.
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly ,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours)
Electricity generation (a) .................... 1,029 1,026 1,187 1,001 987 985 1,215 992 1,017 1,012 1,223 994 4,243 4,180 4,246
Electric power sector ....................... 990 989 1,148 963 950 949 1,174 953 978 975 1,182 954 4,090 4,026 4,089
Industrial sector ............................... 36 34 36 35 35 33 37 36 35 34 37 36 140 141 143
Commercial sector .......................... 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 13 14 14
Net imports ....................................... 7 10 15 10 8 7 8 7 10 11 14 11 41 31 46
Total utility-scale power supply .......... 1,036 1,036 1,203 1,010 995 993 1,223 1,000 1,027 1,024 1,237 1,004 4,284 4,211 4,292
Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ....... 55 64 53 64 44 60 63 47 44 68 56 48 236 214 216
Small-scale solar generation (c) ........ 12 17 17 12 15 22 22 15 17 25 25 17 59 73 85
Residential sector ........................... 7 11 11 8 10 15 14 10 11 17 17 12 37 49 57
Commercial sector ......................... 4 5 5 3 4 6 6 4 5 7 7 5 17 20 23
Industrial sector .............................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 5

Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours unless noted)


Sales to Ultimate Customers ............. 945 938 1,114 911 917 900 1,123 917 948 922 1,144 920 3,909 3,857 3,933
Residential Sector ........................... 380 347 458 338 357 320 462 341 379 336 481 345 1,522 1,481 1,541
Commercial Sector ......................... 322 335 389 327 321 330 395 329 326 333 393 324 1,373 1,375 1,377
Industrial Sector .............................. 242 255 266 245 238 248 264 245 241 251 268 249 1,008 994 1,009
Transportation Sector ...................... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 7 7 7
Direct Use (d) ..................................... 35 34 36 35 35 33 37 36 36 34 38 36 139 140 143
Total Consumption ............................ 981 972 1,150 946 952 933 1,160 952 983 956 1,181 956 4,048 3,997 4,077
Average residential electricity
usage per customer (kWh) ................. 2,711 2,476 3,268 2,411 2,522 2,264 3,268 2,412 2,653 2,355 3,364 2,412 10,866 10,467 10,784

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector


Coal (mmst) ........................................ 86.3 87.3 80.1 90.0 110.1 129.2 127.5 149.5 149.3 151.2 127.4 128.3 90.0 149.5 128.3
Residual Fuel (mmb) .......................... 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.7 3.5 3.9 2.5 2.8 1.0 1.8 5.4 3.9 1.8
Distillate Fuel (mmb) .......................... 17.6 17.7 16.7 15.9 17.0 17.2 17.0 17.1 16.9 16.6 16.6 16.8 15.9 17.1 16.8

Prices
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal ................................................. 2.18 2.26 2.50 2.55 2.57 2.49 2.46 2.40 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.37 2.37 2.48 2.40
Natural Gas ..................................... 5.95 7.39 8.23 6.90 4.99 2.64 2.65 3.23 3.85 3.08 3.32 3.77 7.24 3.28 3.48
Residual Fuel Oil ............................. 16.81 26.17 26.53 21.27 19.24 17.89 15.79 17.67 17.59 17.45 16.15 16.12 21.80 17.69 16.81
Distillate Fuel Oil ............................. 21.23 30.71 26.79 24.48 22.84 38.29 22.16 25.05 23.15 21.26 20.17 21.35 24.89 26.77 21.66
Prices to Ultimate Customers (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector ........................... 13.98 15.07 15.85 15.48 15.74 16.12 15.84 15.19 15.32 15.94 15.88 15.29 15.12 15.73 15.62
Commercial Sector ......................... 11.63 12.35 13.38 12.66 12.69 12.46 13.01 12.03 12.09 12.28 13.30 12.44 12.55 12.57 12.56
Industrial Sector .............................. 7.42 8.41 9.38 8.52 8.12 7.87 8.79 8.17 8.25 7.94 8.81 8.26 8.45 8.24 8.32
Wholesale Electricity Prices (dollars per megawatthour)
ERCOT North hub ........................... 42.73 83.19 130.71 53.01 28.05 57.27 166.57 31.80 31.09 27.83 40.94 27.69 77.41 70.92 31.89
CAISO SP15 zone .......................... 45.20 60.34 110.03 135.13 92.54 30.00 70.67 61.38 70.87 45.49 84.60 59.34 87.67 63.65 65.08
ISO-NE Internal hub ........................ 116.48 73.28 99.14 80.77 52.63 32.55 45.65 45.23 68.02 35.84 71.10 48.62 92.42 44.02 55.90
NYISO Hudson Valley zone ............ 100.10 79.72 104.71 77.17 44.65 31.38 43.56 36.30 46.33 33.33 60.65 40.24 90.42 38.97 45.14
PJM Western hub ........................... 58.33 93.00 110.99 71.60 36.49 35.41 41.54 33.79 41.09 35.15 43.69 37.62 83.48 36.81 39.39
Midcontinent ISO Illinois hub ........... 47.88 89.21 101.80 57.87 31.39 32.13 41.07 35.66 38.19 35.35 43.76 35.93 74.19 35.06 38.31
SPP ISO South hub ........................ 37.25 72.85 109.97 55.87 28.96 34.56 46.55 35.89 37.51 36.43 45.88 36.40 68.98 36.49 39.05
SERC index, Into Southern ............. 42.45 84.96 94.82 59.33 30.53 31.66 37.58 32.26 33.51 31.67 37.78 32.43 70.39 33.01 33.85
FRCC index, Florida Reliability ....... 41.11 78.70 92.71 58.54 30.31 33.06 37.33 31.64 33.32 33.99 37.46 34.23 67.77 33.08 34.75
Northwest index, Mid-Columbia ...... 39.85 59.39 137.82 151.39 105.99 58.61 78.18 68.88 93.53 67.94 84.08 59.32 97.11 77.92 76.22
Southwest index, Palo Verde .......... 39.02 60.50 128.25 130.12 84.19 31.60 75.96 55.60 61.64 50.21 66.46 54.42 89.47 61.84 58.18
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
kWh = kilowatthours. Btu = British thermal units.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
(a) Generation supplied by utility-scale power plants with capacity of at least one megawatt.
(b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error.
(c) Solar photovoltaic systems smaller than one megawatt such as those installed on rooftops.
(d) Direct use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities
for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual (electricity supply and
consumption, fuel inventories and costs, and retail electricity prices); S&P Global Market Intelligence (wholesale electricity prices).
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Sales to Ultimate Customers (billion kilowatthours)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Residential Sector
New England ............... 13.1 10.5 13.9 10.9 12.2 9.8 13.1 11.1 13.1 10.2 13.9 11.2 48.4 46.2 48.5
Middle Atlantic .............. 36.1 30.0 42.6 30.3 33.2 27.5 40.4 30.5 35.4 28.9 42.9 30.3 138.9 131.7 137.5
E. N. Central ................ 50.8 43.8 54.8 43.1 46.5 39.8 55.1 44.2 50.8 42.6 59.3 44.4 192.5 185.6 197.2
W. N. Central ............... 30.6 24.7 31.3 25.7 29.4 24.1 32.2 26.0 30.7 24.3 33.7 26.5 112.3 111.7 115.2
S. Atlantic ..................... 96.0 91.5 116.3 87.7 88.4 85.0 118.7 89.0 96.9 91.8 125.6 90.2 391.4 381.1 404.5
E. S. Central ................. 32.6 27.7 37.0 26.5 29.2 25.4 37.7 27.0 32.9 26.5 39.3 27.1 123.8 119.4 125.9
W. S. Central ............... 56.9 58.8 81.3 51.3 52.0 52.9 86.9 53.2 56.4 54.2 84.1 54.0 248.3 244.9 248.7
Mountain ...................... 24.1 26.2 36.1 24.3 25.2 24.5 36.5 23.9 24.5 26.2 37.9 24.2 110.7 110.2 112.7
Pacific contiguous ........ 38.4 32.4 43.2 36.8 39.4 30.2 40.6 35.0 37.2 30.5 42.7 35.3 150.7 145.2 145.8
AK and HI ..................... 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 4.8 4.8 4.8
Total .......................... 379.8 346.7 457.7 337.7 356.8 320.3 462.4 341.3 379.1 336.4 480.6 344.6 1,521.9 1,480.8 1,540.7
Commercial Sector
New England ............... 12.1 11.8 13.9 11.7 11.9 11.5 13.7 11.7 12.1 11.6 13.7 11.5 49.4 48.9 48.9
Middle Atlantic .............. 36.0 34.3 40.5 34.6 35.0 33.1 39.7 34.3 35.3 33.4 40.3 34.0 145.3 142.2 143.0
E. N. Central ................ 43.3 42.9 48.8 42.2 42.4 41.9 49.0 42.0 43.1 42.3 49.6 41.7 177.1 175.3 176.7
W. N. Central ............... 25.1 24.5 28.0 24.7 25.0 25.0 28.7 24.9 25.5 24.9 28.8 24.8 102.4 103.5 103.9
S. Atlantic ..................... 75.1 82.5 93.5 78.9 75.5 83.1 95.8 80.1 77.9 85.7 96.8 79.8 330.0 334.5 340.2
E. S. Central ................. 21.0 22.4 26.8 21.0 20.5 21.8 27.5 21.5 21.1 22.0 27.5 21.1 91.3 91.4 91.7
W. S. Central ............... 47.0 52.1 61.2 48.6 46.7 50.7 63.7 49.0 47.2 49.2 59.7 46.6 208.9 210.1 202.5
Mountain ...................... 23.2 25.4 29.6 24.3 23.7 25.0 30.3 24.5 23.8 25.6 30.5 24.4 102.6 103.5 104.2
Pacific contiguous ........ 37.7 37.9 45.4 39.7 38.8 37.0 45.1 39.3 38.9 36.9 45.1 39.0 160.7 160.3 159.9
AK and HI ..................... 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 5.4 5.3 5.4
Total .......................... 321.8 335.2 389.0 327.0 320.8 330.4 394.9 328.8 326.2 332.8 393.2 324.3 1,373.0 1,374.9 1,376.5
Industrial Sector
New England ............... 3.9 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.7 15.7 15.2 15.0
Middle Atlantic .............. 17.5 18.2 19.4 18.2 17.3 17.8 19.3 18.1 17.6 18.0 19.5 18.3 73.3 72.4 73.4
E. N. Central ................ 45.9 47.0 48.8 45.3 44.9 46.1 48.3 45.2 45.0 45.9 48.5 45.7 187.1 184.4 185.2
W. N. Central ............... 24.0 24.8 26.9 25.0 24.4 25.7 26.3 24.8 24.7 26.1 27.0 25.6 100.7 101.3 103.5
S. Atlantic ..................... 36.3 37.5 38.7 36.4 34.6 35.8 37.7 36.1 34.9 36.1 38.4 36.8 148.9 144.1 146.1
E. S. Central ................. 24.7 25.8 25.6 23.4 23.3 23.9 24.8 23.1 23.2 23.7 24.7 23.1 99.5 95.1 94.8
W. S. Central ............... 49.8 53.3 53.8 50.6 50.3 53.0 55.0 52.0 52.3 55.5 57.8 54.1 207.6 210.3 219.7
Mountain ...................... 19.9 21.7 24.0 20.9 19.8 21.6 24.5 21.4 20.4 22.1 24.9 21.7 86.5 87.4 89.2
Pacific contiguous ........ 19.0 21.0 23.4 20.0 18.4 19.3 22.4 19.2 17.8 18.6 21.9 18.9 83.4 79.2 77.1
AK and HI ..................... 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 4.8 4.8 4.8
Total .......................... 242.2 254.5 265.9 244.9 237.7 248.1 263.6 244.9 240.8 250.8 268.0 249.4 1,007.5 994.3 1,008.9
Total All Sectors (a)
New England ............... 29.2 26.3 32.0 26.5 27.9 25.1 31.0 26.7 29.0 25.5 31.8 26.6 114.0 110.7 112.9
Middle Atlantic .............. 90.4 83.3 103.3 84.0 86.4 79.3 100.3 83.8 89.3 81.2 103.5 83.6 360.9 349.8 357.5
E. N. Central ................ 140.2 133.8 152.5 130.7 133.9 127.9 152.6 131.5 139.1 130.9 157.6 132.0 557.2 545.8 559.6
W. N. Central ............... 79.7 74.1 86.3 75.4 78.8 74.8 87.2 75.8 80.8 75.4 89.5 76.9 315.4 316.6 322.6
S. Atlantic ..................... 207.7 211.8 248.7 203.2 198.7 204.2 252.5 205.5 210.0 213.8 261.1 207.1 871.3 860.8 892.0
E. S. Central ................. 78.4 76.0 89.4 70.9 73.0 71.1 90.1 71.7 77.3 72.2 91.6 71.4 314.6 305.9 312.5
W. S. Central ............... 153.7 164.2 196.4 150.5 149.0 156.6 205.6 154.3 155.9 158.9 201.6 154.7 664.9 665.5 671.1
Mountain ...................... 67.2 73.4 89.8 69.5 68.8 71.2 91.3 69.8 68.8 73.8 93.3 70.4 299.9 301.2 306.3
Pacific contiguous ........ 95.3 91.6 112.2 96.6 96.8 86.7 108.3 93.8 94.1 86.3 109.9 93.4 395.7 385.5 383.7
AK and HI ..................... 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.9 15.0 14.9 15.0
Total .......................... 945.5 938.0 1,114.3 911.2 917.1 900.3 1,122.6 916.7 947.9 921.6 1,143.6 920.0 3,909.1 3,856.8 3,933.1
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Electricity sales to ultimate customers are sold by electric utilities and power marketers for direct consumption by the customer
and not available for resale. Includes electric sales to end users by third-party owners of behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic systems.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=C#census_division).
(a) Total includes sales of electricity to ultimate customers in transportation sector (not shown), as well as residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices to Ultimate Customers (Cents per Kilowatthour)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Residential Sector
New England .............. 23.96 24.31 24.76 26.39 30.63 29.56 27.33 27.42 30.50 28.64 26.42 27.12 24.81 28.70 28.15
Middle Atlantic ............. 17.20 18.29 18.95 19.50 19.68 19.10 18.86 18.79 19.35 19.15 19.21 19.47 18.47 19.10 19.29
E. N. Central ............... 14.21 15.50 16.18 16.13 16.12 16.56 16.17 15.60 15.31 15.93 15.85 15.74 15.49 16.11 15.70
W. N. Central .............. 11.28 13.26 14.36 12.39 11.85 13.52 13.87 12.04 11.63 13.56 13.81 12.00 12.83 12.84 12.76
S. Atlantic .................... 12.68 13.61 14.27 13.85 14.34 14.80 14.38 13.31 13.44 14.09 13.96 13.14 13.63 14.21 13.68
E. S. Central ............... 11.97 13.08 13.78 13.40 13.17 13.20 13.12 12.87 12.95 13.45 13.32 13.12 13.06 13.09 13.21
W. S. Central .............. 11.86 12.97 13.84 13.97 13.57 13.57 13.78 14.00 13.60 13.74 13.99 13.91 13.21 13.74 13.83
Mountain ..................... 12.14 12.85 13.23 12.98 12.96 13.89 14.19 13.60 13.20 13.83 14.01 13.63 12.85 13.72 13.71
Pacific ......................... 18.12 20.60 22.03 18.82 19.40 22.31 22.38 18.85 19.57 23.32 23.63 19.65 19.95 20.70 21.57
U.S. Average ........... 13.98 15.07 15.85 15.48 15.74 16.12 15.84 15.19 15.32 15.94 15.88 15.29 15.12 15.73 15.62
Commercial Sector
New England .............. 18.47 17.46 18.32 18.55 20.55 18.42 18.30 18.03 19.63 17.67 18.00 18.33 18.21 18.81 18.40
Middle Atlantic ............. 14.05 14.96 16.60 15.26 14.84 14.85 15.51 13.69 13.56 14.45 15.81 14.15 15.26 14.75 14.54
E. N. Central ............... 11.06 11.84 12.12 11.87 12.01 12.06 11.59 11.01 11.22 11.77 11.73 11.33 11.73 11.66 11.52
W. N. Central .............. 9.65 10.71 11.70 10.15 10.02 10.71 11.18 9.57 9.70 10.87 11.46 9.69 10.59 10.40 10.47
S. Atlantic .................... 10.30 10.87 11.52 11.23 11.37 10.91 10.93 10.25 10.29 10.26 10.62 10.13 11.01 10.86 10.34
E. S. Central ............... 11.69 12.20 13.02 12.59 12.60 12.10 12.68 12.25 12.52 12.40 13.12 12.61 12.41 12.42 12.69
W. S. Central .............. 8.68 9.63 10.47 9.91 9.51 8.95 9.46 8.98 9.11 9.43 10.61 9.97 9.73 9.23 9.83
Mountain ..................... 9.57 10.32 10.97 10.42 10.35 11.08 11.50 10.67 10.33 10.87 11.40 10.76 10.36 10.94 10.88
Pacific ......................... 16.13 17.81 20.34 18.00 18.07 18.90 22.07 19.03 18.45 18.92 22.72 20.16 18.18 19.62 20.18
U.S. Average ........... 11.63 12.35 13.38 12.66 12.69 12.46 13.01 12.03 12.09 12.28 13.30 12.44 12.55 12.57 12.56
Industrial Sector
New England .............. 15.12 15.17 15.93 15.36 16.21 15.20 15.50 14.70 15.32 14.45 15.13 14.83 15.40 15.40 14.94
Middle Atlantic ............. 7.88 8.29 9.30 8.46 8.31 7.89 8.54 7.93 8.30 7.87 8.65 7.97 8.51 8.17 8.20
E. N. Central ............... 7.72 8.55 8.99 8.50 8.33 7.97 8.26 8.11 8.50 8.10 8.41 8.26 8.45 8.17 8.32
W. N. Central .............. 7.17 8.00 8.70 7.46 7.39 7.75 8.46 7.39 7.63 7.91 8.58 7.48 7.85 7.76 7.91
S. Atlantic .................... 6.85 8.10 9.11 8.05 7.70 7.37 8.01 7.50 7.87 7.45 8.07 7.58 8.04 7.65 7.75
E. S. Central ............... 6.35 7.36 8.41 7.53 6.98 6.67 7.53 7.07 7.10 6.73 7.63 7.17 7.42 7.07 7.16
W. S. Central .............. 6.19 7.28 8.08 7.37 6.71 6.12 7.10 6.79 6.82 5.92 6.68 6.77 7.25 6.68 6.54
Mountain ..................... 6.58 7.27 8.41 7.88 7.66 7.63 8.88 8.10 7.92 8.07 9.13 8.32 7.57 8.10 8.39
Pacific ......................... 10.37 11.98 14.16 12.65 11.78 12.47 14.89 13.10 12.27 13.23 15.60 13.66 12.38 13.14 13.79
U.S. Average ........... 7.42 8.41 9.38 8.52 8.12 7.87 8.79 8.17 8.25 7.94 8.81 8.26 8.45 8.24 8.32
All Sectors (a)
New England .............. 20.46 19.83 20.79 21.27 24.35 22.25 21.72 21.44 23.95 21.58 21.30 21.51 20.59 22.43 22.09
Middle Atlantic ............. 14.09 14.68 16.17 15.29 15.39 14.76 15.50 14.29 14.81 14.65 15.85 14.71 15.10 15.02 15.05
E. N. Central ............... 11.10 11.88 12.57 12.10 12.20 11.98 12.19 11.55 11.83 11.83 12.26 11.75 11.93 11.99 11.93
W. N. Central .............. 9.53 10.65 11.73 10.02 9.89 10.60 11.35 9.70 9.80 10.71 11.47 9.75 10.51 10.41 10.47
S. Atlantic .................... 10.79 11.56 12.43 11.79 12.05 11.90 12.11 11.09 11.34 11.43 11.85 10.98 11.68 11.81 11.43
E. S. Central ............... 10.12 10.88 12.01 11.22 11.04 10.66 11.45 10.81 11.07 10.93 11.72 11.04 11.09 11.02 11.22
W. S. Central .............. 9.05 10.06 11.21 10.44 9.98 9.55 10.65 9.97 9.96 9.67 10.89 10.23 10.25 10.09 10.23
Mountain ..................... 9.60 10.32 11.19 10.55 10.53 11.00 11.87 10.89 10.64 11.08 11.85 10.99 10.47 11.13 11.20
Pacific ......................... 15.77 17.45 19.69 17.19 17.41 18.65 20.68 17.73 17.71 19.23 21.64 18.63 17.62 18.68 19.40
U.S. Average ........... 11.49 12.28 13.44 12.59 12.69 12.50 13.18 12.18 12.40 12.43 13.33 12.37 12.49 12.67 12.67
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data for average price of electricity to ultimate consumers represents the cost per unit of electricity sold and is calculated by dividing
electric revenue from ultimate consumers by the corresponding sales of electricity.
Prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions (https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=C#census_division).
(a) Average price to all sectors is weighted by sales of electricity to ultimate customers in the residential, commercial, industrial and transportation (not shown) sectors.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 7d part 1. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (billion kilowatthours), continues on Table 7d part 2
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
United States
Natural Gas ..................................... 336.4 365.3 509.3 375.2 368.1 395.9 545.4 393.6 359.1 380.8 534.5 378.7 1,586.2 1,703.1 1,653.1
Coal ................................................. 217.6 189.1 234.6 182.1 155.1 140.1 210.5 130.9 153.3 127.6 194.2 130.4 823.4 636.6 605.4
Nuclear ............................................ 195.6 184.4 201.5 190.1 194.5 182.9 204.3 195.2 199.8 193.1 208.6 193.2 771.5 777.0 794.7
Renewable Energy Sources: .......... 233.0 245.1 197.8 207.2 227.5 226.4 208.3 227.4 260.9 269.4 240.2 246.0 883.1 889.6 1,016.4
Conventional Hydropower 74.2 69.2 62.4 55.0 62.6 65.3 58.0 59.1 73.1 80.9 65.8 60.7 260.8 244.9 280.5
Wind ............................................. 119.0 121.0 80.6 113.9 125.4 102.3 87.2 122.3 134.9 109.1 89.5 127.2 434.5 437.1 460.7
Solar (a) ...................................... 29.2 44.4 43.4 27.6 29.6 49.5 52.7 35.9 42.5 70.4 74.3 48.0 144.6 167.7 235.2
Biomass ....................................... 6.6 6.5 7.1 6.5 6.0 5.5 6.4 6.0 6.3 5.9 6.6 6.1 26.7 23.9 24.8
Geothermal .................................. 4.1 3.9 4.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.1 4.0 4.0 16.5 16.0 15.2
Pumped Storage Hydropower ........ -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -1.9 -1.3 -1.6 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -6.0 -6.1 -6.5
Petroleum (b) ................................. 6.4 4.1 4.5 7.4 3.8 3.4 4.6 5.2 5.0 3.5 4.5 5.6 22.4 17.0 18.5
Other Gases ................................... 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 3.5 3.2 3.3
Other Nonrenewable Fuels (c) ....... 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.0 6.2 5.4 4.0
Total Generation ............................. 990.0 989.3 1,148.2 962.7 949.6 949.3 1,173.7 953.2 978.2 974.6 1,182.0 954.2 4,090.3 4,025.8 4,088.9
New England (ISO-NE)
Natural Gas ..................................... 12.1 12.6 17.4 11.4 11.7 12.6 16.7 11.9 11.8 10.6 16.8 11.8 53.4 53.0 51.0
Coal ................................................. 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9
Nuclear ............................................ 7.1 5.6 7.3 7.4 7.1 3.4 7.0 6.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 5.6 27.4 23.7 27.1
Conventional hydropower ............... 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 1.2 1.7 5.5 5.4 7.1
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.7 12.4 12.1 13.6
Other energy sources (e) .............. 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 2.8 1.5 1.9
Total generation .............................. 25.7 23.1 29.2 23.9 24.0 20.5 28.3 23.5 24.9 23.7 29.4 23.6 101.8 96.3 101.5
Net energy for load (f) .................... 30.6 26.8 33.5 28.0 29.0 25.6 32.6 28.3 30.2 27.5 34.1 29.0 118.9 115.5 120.8
New York (NYISO)
Natural Gas ..................................... 14.1 15.5 21.2 14.3 13.3 14.1 21.0 13.5 13.8 13.3 20.5 13.8 65.0 61.9 61.4
Coal ................................................. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nuclear ............................................ 6.4 7.0 6.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 7.3 7.2 6.5 7.1 7.1 6.7 26.8 27.9 27.3
Conventional hydropower ............... 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.6 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.0 27.4 26.8 27.3
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 2.2 2.1 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.9 8.2 9.5 11.0
Other energy sources (e) .............. 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.2 1.0 1.4
Total generation .............................. 31.0 31.6 36.1 30.9 29.7 29.5 37.2 30.6 30.4 30.1 37.2 30.8 129.6 127.0 128.4
Net energy for load (f) .................... 38.1 35.0 44.0 35.6 36.1 33.3 43.3 35.6 37.6 36.0 45.3 36.5 152.7 148.3 155.4
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
Natural Gas ..................................... 76.8 74.3 103.8 79.9 86.0 82.0 111.4 89.9 88.4 83.5 112.4 79.6 334.8 369.2 363.9
Coal ................................................. 48.6 35.3 42.2 30.7 27.9 22.5 34.1 18.5 29.4 21.3 28.9 23.7 156.8 103.1 103.4
Nuclear ............................................ 69.0 65.1 69.7 66.8 67.6 65.7 71.2 68.5 69.0 64.7 71.9 68.5 270.6 273.0 274.1
Conventional hydropower ............... 2.7 2.4 1.4 2.0 2.7 1.8 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.6 1.7 2.1 8.6 7.9 9.0
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 13.2 13.0 9.7 12.5 12.9 11.9 10.3 13.5 15.4 14.7 13.3 15.7 48.4 48.6 59.1
Other energy sources (e) .............. 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.6 1.4 1.9
Total generation .............................. 211.1 190.3 227.1 193.3 197.4 183.9 228.6 193.4 205.3 187.1 228.4 190.6 821.8 803.2 811.4
Net energy for load (f) .................... 203.4 185.4 216.7 189.7 192.5 176.3 218.1 184.7 198.2 180.5 220.0 183.8 795.1 771.6 782.5
Southeast (SERC)
Natural Gas ..................................... 63.0 66.9 86.2 64.5 64.1 65.9 86.7 70.4 69.1 73.0 95.2 74.8 280.6 287.1 312.1
Coal ................................................. 32.3 32.8 32.0 28.1 23.6 26.4 35.9 17.3 24.8 21.0 31.8 15.1 125.1 103.2 92.7
Nuclear ............................................ 51.4 51.1 55.4 51.1 51.7 52.7 56.8 56.5 55.9 57.5 59.4 54.6 209.0 217.7 227.4
Conventional hydropower ............... 10.3 8.3 6.1 8.0 10.3 6.5 6.0 8.5 11.4 9.0 8.0 9.1 32.7 31.4 37.5
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 5.0 7.0 6.6 4.7 5.0 7.2 7.6 5.6 5.8 8.5 8.7 6.5 23.3 25.3 29.5
Other energy sources (e) .............. -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.2 -1.4 -1.8
Total generation .............................. 161.8 165.8 185.7 156.3 154.4 158.6 192.2 158.2 166.8 168.6 202.3 159.8 669.6 663.4 697.4
Net energy for load (f) .................... 157.0 158.2 170.6 151.0 149.1 149.2 175.7 149.9 158.0 157.5 188.6 151.8 636.7 623.9 655.9
Florida (FRCC)
Natural Gas ..................................... 38.7 47.8 57.3 41.3 37.9 49.2 60.4 43.7 37.7 46.1 57.0 41.8 185.0 191.2 182.6
Coal ................................................. 3.5 4.2 3.7 4.1 2.8 2.5 3.9 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.6 15.5 10.9 7.5
Nuclear ............................................ 7.3 7.9 7.5 8.1 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.3 7.9 8.0 6.8 30.8 30.2 30.0
Conventional hydropower ............... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2
Nonhydro renewables (d) .............. 2.9 3.8 3.5 2.7 3.5 4.3 3.9 3.0 4.8 5.8 4.9 3.9 12.9 14.7 19.4
Other energy sources (e) .............. 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 2.6 2.5 2.5
Total generation .............................. 53.2 64.2 72.7 56.8 52.3 64.1 76.5 56.8 52.7 62.4 72.4 54.8 247.0 249.7 242.2
Net energy for load (f) .................... 52.2 63.6 73.9 57.8 54.4 65.5 75.5 56.6 52.0 63.2 73.9 55.1 247.5 252.0 244.2
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
The electric power sector includes utility-scale generating power plants (total capacity is larger than 1 megawatt) operated by electric utilities
and independent power producers whose primary business is to sell electricity over the transmission grid for consumption by the public.
(a) Generation from utility-scale (larger than 1 megawatt) solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants. Excludes generation
from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (see Table 7a).
(b) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(c) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
(d) Wind, large-scale solar, biomass, and geothermal
(e) Pumped storage hydroelectric, petroleum, other gases, batteries, and other nonrenewable fuels. See notes (b) and (c).
(f) Includes regional generation from generating units operated by electric power sector, plus energy receipts from neighboring U.S. balancing
authorities outside region minus energy deliveries to neighboring balancing authorities.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Table 7d part 2. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector (billion kilowatthours), continued from Table 7d part 1
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Midwest (MISO)
Natural Gas ................................... 39.4 45.6 57.3 41.8 45.4 54.2 64.2 49.6 46.7 53.5 67.7 48.0 184.1 213.4 215.8
Coal .............................................. 60.4 51.0 65.0 49.3 43.0 38.0 56.0 37.3 45.5 36.8 55.1 38.0 225.8 174.4 175.4
Nuclear ......................................... 23.8 19.6 24.3 23.7 23.4 21.1 23.4 20.6 23.3 22.5 24.4 23.3 91.4 88.5 93.5
Conventional hydropower .............. 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.4 2.2 10.3 8.6 9.9
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 31.2 28.0 19.8 30.4 29.9 26.2 22.4 34.0 33.7 29.6 25.9 36.6 109.4 112.5 125.8
Other energy sources (e) ............. 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.7 6.1 4.7 5.7
Total generation ............................ 159.0 148.5 170.2 149.3 145.0 142.5 169.5 145.1 153.0 146.5 176.9 149.8 627.0 602.1 626.1
Net energy for load (f) .................. 167.1 163.4 182.5 158.8 158.6 157.9 187.9 159.5 164.4 159.6 190.2 159.2 671.8 663.8 673.4
Central (Southwest Power Pool)
Natural Gas ................................... 12.5 15.3 24.8 16.4 15.4 21.1 27.7 15.1 14.4 19.3 24.6 15.8 69.0 79.3 74.1
Coal .............................................. 26.2 23.5 33.8 22.8 20.4 17.2 29.2 17.3 17.8 18.2 28.6 15.3 106.3 84.0 79.9
Nuclear ......................................... 4.3 4.3 3.9 2.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 3.0 4.3 3.5 14.6 17.2 15.1
Conventional hydropower .............. 4.3 3.9 3.2 3.1 3.5 3.2 2.8 2.8 3.5 4.2 3.7 3.1 14.6 12.2 14.4
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 29.5 30.4 21.8 28.5 31.1 25.6 24.1 30.4 32.6 26.8 24.1 30.9 110.2 111.2 114.5
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 0.9 0.9
Total generation ............................ 77.0 77.7 87.7 73.5 74.8 71.4 88.4 70.2 72.8 71.6 85.5 68.8 316.0 304.8 298.7
Net energy for load (f) .................. 67.4 67.7 81.7 66.0 66.6 66.6 81.3 63.1 65.2 65.6 80.0 62.8 282.8 277.7 273.6
Texas (ERCOT)
Natural Gas ................................... 33.4 42.8 64.7 40.9 36.2 49.8 71.9 42.6 32.6 41.9 61.2 38.9 181.9 200.5 174.7
Coal .............................................. 17.7 16.8 20.2 16.6 10.5 15.2 18.4 12.2 10.2 11.7 16.2 11.7 71.2 56.3 49.9
Nuclear ......................................... 11.0 9.9 10.7 10.0 10.5 9.0 11.0 10.1 10.9 9.8 10.6 9.5 41.6 40.6 40.8
Conventional hydropower .............. 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.6
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 30.8 39.2 28.1 29.3 36.5 33.8 32.3 32.8 42.3 43.6 40.5 38.7 127.4 135.3 165.0
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.0
Total generation ............................ 93.5 109.3 124.1 97.2 94.1 108.2 134.0 98.2 96.5 107.5 128.9 99.1 424.1 434.5 432.0
Net energy for load (f) .................. 95.1 111.3 126.4 97.1 94.1 109.8 134.0 98.2 96.5 107.5 128.9 99.1 429.9 436.1 432.0
Northwest
Natural Gas ................................... 20.2 15.9 27.3 24.6 25.6 18.9 32.0 21.5 19.6 12.2 28.6 18.7 88.1 98.0 79.1
Coal .............................................. 21.7 18.1 26.9 22.1 20.0 14.5 23.5 19.5 16.9 11.9 22.0 18.4 88.8 77.5 69.3
Nuclear ......................................... 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.0 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 9.9 8.4 9.7
Conventional hydropower .............. 38.7 35.7 34.0 26.9 26.4 30.2 26.4 26.4 34.1 40.6 30.6 28.3 135.2 109.3 133.5
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 19.2 20.4 16.0 18.0 19.1 19.4 19.1 20.2 21.2 21.7 21.3 22.1 73.6 77.8 86.3
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.6
Total generation ............................ 102.5 92.6 106.9 94.4 93.7 84.3 103.5 90.2 94.5 88.9 105.1 90.0 396.3 371.7 378.5
Net energy for load (f) .................. 85.2 76.8 87.4 86.8 88.7 76.7 88.8 81.9 84.3 75.7 87.8 81.4 336.1 336.2 329.3
Southwest
Natural Gas ................................... 9.7 13.2 19.0 13.9 11.5 15.7 24.2 14.8 10.1 14.2 23.7 15.0 55.8 66.2 63.0
Coal .............................................. 6.1 6.3 8.1 6.2 5.5 3.1 6.8 4.8 4.4 4.3 6.6 4.3 26.7 20.2 19.6
Nuclear ......................................... 8.2 7.5 8.7 7.6 8.6 6.8 8.5 7.5 8.5 7.4 8.6 7.5 31.9 31.3 32.0
Conventional hydropower .............. 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.5 2.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6 7.4 7.7 7.4
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 5.8 7.0 5.2 5.6 6.4 6.6 5.6 6.7 8.8 8.5 6.9 7.6 23.6 25.3 31.8
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Total generation ............................ 31.8 36.0 43.0 34.7 33.6 34.7 47.4 35.2 33.6 36.6 47.7 36.0 145.5 150.9 153.9
Net energy for load (f) .................. 27.4 34.2 42.0 28.8 28.3 32.9 46.0 29.3 28.1 34.2 46.1 29.1 132.4 136.6 137.6
California
Natural Gas ................................... 15.7 15.2 29.4 25.5 20.4 11.6 28.5 19.7 14.1 12.7 26.3 19.7 85.9 80.2 72.7
Coal .............................................. 0.5 0.7 2.4 1.9 1.1 0.6 2.0 1.7 1.5 -0.1 2.3 1.6 5.5 5.4 5.3
Nuclear ......................................... 4.6 4.2 5.0 3.8 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.7 3.6 4.7 4.7 17.6 18.4 17.8
Conventional hydropower .............. 3.6 5.2 5.2 2.8 6.4 10.6 9.7 6.8 7.9 10.0 9.0 5.1 16.9 33.6 32.0
Nonhydro renewables (d) ............. 15.4 21.5 19.4 14.8 14.9 20.6 19.1 15.9 16.9 22.6 22.1 16.1 71.2 70.5 77.7
Other energy sources (e) ............. 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.4
Total generation ............................ 39.8 46.6 61.6 48.7 46.9 48.0 64.3 48.1 44.3 48.3 64.5 47.0 196.7 207.3 204.1
Net energy for load (f) .................. 59.2 64.4 81.3 63.6 60.5 59.9 79.0 62.2 60.0 63.9 83.5 62.4 268.4 261.6 269.7
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
The electric power sector includes utility-scale generating power plants (total capacity is larger than 1 megawatt) operated by electric utilities
and independent power producers whose primary business is to sell electricity over the transmission grid for consumption by the public.
(a) Generation from utility-scale (larger than 1 megawatt) solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants. Excludes generation
from small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (see Table 7a).
(b) Residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, petroleum coke, and other petroleum liquids.
(c) Batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
(d) Wind, large-scale solar, biomass, and geothermal
(e) Pumped storage hydroelectric, petroleum, other gases, batteries, and other nonrenewable fuels. See notes (b) and (c).
(f) Includes regional generation from generating units operated by electric power sector, plus energy receipts from neighboring U.S. balancing
authorities outside region minus energy deliveries to neighboring balancing authorities.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly and Electric Power Annual.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Table 7e. U.S. Electric Generating Capacity (gigawatts at end of period)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electric power sector (power plants larger than one megawatt)
Fossil fuel energy sources
Natural gas ...................................... 481.2 484.6 485.5 485.4 487.1 489.1 489.3 489.1 488.3 486.7 487.3 487.5 485.4 489.1 487.5
Coal ................................................. 199.5 194.5 191.0 187.9 186.3 182.6 180.7 178.1 177.5 177.0 177.0 177.0 187.9 178.1 177.0
Petroleum ........................................ 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.8 27.2 27.2
Other gases ..................................... 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Renewable energy sources
Wind ................................................ 134.7 137.6 137.6 141.0 142.8 144.2 145.9 149.2 149.6 152.4 152.4 155.2 141.0 149.2 155.2
Solar photovoltaic ............................ 62.1 64.5 66.6 70.7 73.1 76.7 83.9 96.6 103.9 111.2 114.1 129.5 70.7 96.6 129.5
Solar thermal ................................... 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Geothermal ...................................... 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
Waste biomass ................................ 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2
Wood biomass ................................ 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Conventional hydroelectric .............. 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.8 79.7 79.8 79.8
Pumped storage hydroelectric ............. 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.0 23.2 23.3
Nuclear ................................................ 95.5 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.8 95.9 95.9 97.1 97.1 97.1 97.1 94.8 95.9 97.1
Battery storage .................................... 5.3 6.6 8.0 9.0 9.4 10.8 15.3 18.9 19.9 23.7 25.3 30.9 9.0 18.9 30.9
Other nonrenewable sources (a) ......... 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Industrial and commercial sectors (combined heat and power plants larger than one megawatt)
Fossil fuel energy sources
Natural gas ...................................... 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.8 18.9
Coal ................................................. 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Petroleum ........................................ 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Other gases ..................................... 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3
Renewable energy sources
Wood biomass ................................ 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
Waste biomass ................................ 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
Solar ................................................ 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8
Wind ................................................ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Geothermal ...................................... 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Conventional hydroelectric .............. 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Battery storage .................................... 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other nonrenewable sources (a) ......... 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
Small-scale solar photovoltaic capacity (systems smaller than one megawatt)
Residential sector ............................... 22.3 23.5 24.9 26.3 28.2 29.7 31.0 32.3 33.6 35.0 36.4 37.8 26.3 32.3 37.8
Commercial sector ............................. 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.8 10.9 12.8 14.8
Industrial sector .................................. 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.8
All sectors total ................................ 34.7 36.2 37.9 39.5 42.1 44.1 45.8 47.7 49.5 51.4 53.4 55.4 39.5 47.7 55.4
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Capacity values represent the amount of generating capacity that is operating (or expected to be operating) at the end of each period.
Changes in capacity reflect various factors including new generators coming online, retiring generators, capacity uprates and derates,
delayed planned capacity projects, cancelled projects, and other factors.
(a) Other sources include hydrogen, pitch, chemicals, sulfur, purchased steam, nonrenewable waste, and miscellaneous technologies.
Historical data: Form EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report (final data for utility-scale capacity through 2021); Form EIA-860M Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, June 2023
edition (preliminary utility-scale capacity estimates for recent months); and Form EIA-861M Monthly Electric Power Industry Report (small-scale solar capacity).
Historical capacity data may differ from other EIA publications due to frequent updates to the Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption (Quadrillion Btu)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Electric Power Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.036 0.035 0.037 0.037 0.035 0.020 0.032 0.032 0.030 0.022 0.030 0.029 0.146 0.119 0.111
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.656 0.612 0.552 0.486 0.554 0.616 0.513 0.522 0.646 0.716 0.582 0.537 2.307 2.205 2.481
Solar (b) ................................................................. 0.258 0.393 0.384 0.244 0.262 0.437 0.466 0.318 0.375 0.622 0.657 0.425 1.279 1.483 2.080
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.055 0.053 0.053 0.052 0.051 0.046 0.049 0.048 0.050 0.048 0.050 0.049 0.213 0.195 0.196
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.051 0.046 0.055 0.047 0.045 0.039 0.050 0.044 0.048 0.043 0.054 0.046 0.200 0.179 0.191
Wind ...................................................................... 1.052 1.070 0.713 1.007 1.109 0.905 0.771 1.081 1.193 0.965 0.791 1.125 3.842 3.866 4.074
Subtotal ............................................................... 2.109 2.210 1.794 1.874 2.055 2.064 1.882 2.046 2.343 2.416 2.164 2.210 7.987 8.046 9.133
Industrial Sector
Biofuel Losses and Co-products (d) ....................... 0.203 0.203 0.197 0.206 0.199 0.201 0.201 0.204 0.199 0.198 0.203 0.199 0.808 0.804 0.799
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.004
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.008 0.008 0.007
Solar (b) .................................................................. 0.008 0.011 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.012 0.013 0.009 0.009 0.013 0.013 0.009 0.038 0.042 0.046
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.042 0.040 0.037 0.042 0.042 0.040 0.039 0.041 0.041 0.040 0.039 0.041 0.161 0.163 0.162
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.319 0.324 0.322 0.314 0.309 0.302 0.324 0.341 0.334 0.332 0.344 0.346 1.278 1.276 1.356
Subtotal (e) .......................................................... 0.579 0.585 0.575 0.577 0.566 0.563 0.584 0.603 0.591 0.591 0.607 0.604 2.316 2.316 2.392
Commercial Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.024 0.025 0.025
Solar (b) ................................................................ 0.032 0.047 0.047 0.031 0.036 0.054 0.055 0.038 0.044 0.063 0.064 0.044 0.157 0.183 0.215
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.037 0.038 0.040
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.020 0.020 0.021 0.021 0.083 0.083 0.082
Subtotal (e) .......................................................... 0.076 0.090 0.091 0.074 0.080 0.098 0.099 0.082 0.087 0.109 0.108 0.087 0.331 0.358 0.391
Residential Sector
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.040 0.040 0.040
Solar (f) ................................................................... 0.078 0.116 0.117 0.084 0.099 0.151 0.147 0.102 0.112 0.170 0.170 0.117 0.395 0.499 0.570
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.111 0.110 0.106 0.106 0.111 0.110 0.106 0.106 0.422 0.434 0.434
Subtotal ............................................................... 0.192 0.231 0.233 0.200 0.220 0.271 0.264 0.218 0.233 0.290 0.287 0.234 0.857 0.972 1.043
Transportation Sector
Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, and Other (g) .......... 0.094 0.117 0.116 0.125 0.140 0.173 0.165 0.168 0.165 0.178 0.180 0.181 0.451 0.646 0.704
Ethanol (g) .............................................................. 0.262 0.281 0.281 0.283 0.268 0.284 0.292 0.277 0.264 0.279 0.287 0.274 1.108 1.121 1.104
Subtotal ............................................................... 0.356 0.398 0.397 0.408 0.408 0.457 0.457 0.446 0.429 0.456 0.467 0.456 1.559 1.767 1.808
All Sectors Total
Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, and Other (g) .......... 0.094 0.117 0.116 0.125 0.140 0.173 0.165 0.168 0.165 0.178 0.180 0.181 0.451 0.646 0.704
Biofuel Losses and Co-products (d) ....................... 0.203 0.203 0.197 0.206 0.199 0.201 0.201 0.204 0.199 0.198 0.203 0.199 0.808 0.804 0.799
Ethanol (f) ............................................................... 0.273 0.293 0.293 0.295 0.279 0.296 0.304 0.289 0.274 0.290 0.299 0.286 1.153 1.167 1.149
Geothermal ........................................................... 0.053 0.052 0.054 0.055 0.052 0.045 0.049 0.049 0.047 0.039 0.047 0.046 0.214 0.195 0.180
Hydroelectric Power (a) ......................................... 0.659 0.615 0.555 0.489 0.556 0.619 0.515 0.525 0.649 0.718 0.584 0.539 2.317 2.215 2.491
Solar (b)(f) ............................................................. 0.377 0.568 0.559 0.366 0.405 0.655 0.681 0.466 0.541 0.869 0.905 0.595 1.870 2.207 2.909
Waste Biomass (c) ................................................. 0.106 0.102 0.099 0.103 0.103 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.101 0.100 0.098 0.099 0.411 0.398 0.399
Wood Biomass ...................................................... 0.494 0.496 0.505 0.489 0.486 0.471 0.503 0.513 0.513 0.505 0.525 0.520 1.984 1.972 2.063
Wind ...................................................................... 1.052 1.070 0.713 1.007 1.109 0.905 0.771 1.081 1.193 0.965 0.791 1.125 3.842 3.866 4.074
Total Consumption .................................................. 3.311 3.515 3.091 3.134 3.328 3.453 3.285 3.395 3.683 3.862 3.633 3.591 13.051 13.460 14.768
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
((a)) Energy consumption
gy for
p conventional
y y hydroelectric
p p power( only.
p yHydroelectricity
g generated
q by g
pumped ) storage is notpincluded in renewable energy.
and energy consumption by small-scale solar photovoltaic systems (less than 1 megawatts in size).

(c) Municipal solid waste from biogenic sources, landfill gas, sludge waste, agricultural byproducts, and other biomass.
(d) Losses and co-products from the production of fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel
(e) Subtotals for the industrial and commercial sectors might not equal the sum of the components. The subtotal for the industrial sector includes ethanol consumption
that is not shown separately. The subtotal for the commercial sector includes ethanol and hydroelectric consumption that are not shown separately.
(f) Solar consumption in the residential sector includes energy from small-scale
(g) p solar photovoltaic
p systems (<1 megawatt),
p and it includes solar
g heatingpconsumptionp in all sectors.
Some biomass-based diesel may be consumed in the residential sector in heating oil.
Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly, Electric Power Annual,
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding and possible revisions not yet reflected in the STEO.
Forecast data: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System.
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Macroeconomic
Real Gross Domestic Product
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 19,924 19,895 20,055 20,182 20,283 20,404 20,515 20,592 20,634 20,692 20,761 20,838 20,014 20,448 20,731
Real Personal Consumption Expend.
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 14,028 14,099 14,179 14,215 14,360 14,419 14,483 14,543 14,580 14,622 14,671 14,725 14,130 14,451 14,650
Real Private Fixed Investment
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,629 3,582 3,550 3,516 3,512 3,554 3,570 3,586 3,591 3,597 3,604 3,615 3,569 3,556 3,602
Business Inventory Change
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 257 145 71 162 12 23 19 22 27 38 49 61 159 19 44
Real Government Expenditures
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,393 3,379 3,411 3,442 3,484 3,507 3,526 3,540 3,549 3,556 3,561 3,566 3,406 3,514 3,558
Real Exports of Goods & Services
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 2,437 2,517 2,604 2,580 2,628 2,554 2,585 2,624 2,662 2,695 2,730 2,767 2,534 2,598 2,714
Real Imports of Goods & Services
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 3,926 3,947 3,873 3,818 3,837 3,760 3,785 3,847 3,908 3,950 3,989 4,032 3,891 3,807 3,970
Real Disposable Personal Income
(billion chained 2012 dollars - SAAR) ............................ 15,109 15,022 15,141 15,236 15,550 15,644 15,722 15,809 15,968 16,098 16,205 16,290 15,127 15,681 16,140
Non-Farm Employment
(millions) ......................................................................... 150.8 152.0 153.3 154.3 155.2 155.9 156.5 156.8 156.8 156.8 156.7 156.6 152.6 156.1 156.7
Civilian Unemployment Rate
(percent) ......................................................................... 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.9
Housing Starts
(millions - SAAR) ............................................................. 1.72 1.64 1.45 1.41 1.39 1.45 1.44 1.40 1.37 1.37 1.39 1.40 1.55 1.42 1.38

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2017=100)


Total Industrial Production ................................................ 101.7 102.8 103.3 102.7 102.6 102.8 102.7 102.1 101.8 101.7 101.8 102.0 102.6 102.6 101.8
Manufacturing ................................................................. 100.1 100.8 100.9 100.0 99.9 100.4 100.0 99.3 98.9 98.9 99.2 99.6 100.5 99.9 99.2
Food ............................................................................ 105.1 105.1 104.8 104.5 105.1 103.5 104.1 104.4 104.7 105.0 105.5 105.9 104.9 104.3 105.3
Paper .......................................................................... 95.9 96.2 92.7 89.1 87.6 87.5 87.0 86.9 86.8 86.8 87.1 87.4 93.5 87.2 87.0
Petroleum and Coal Products ..................................... 89.8 89.6 90.1 89.8 88.6 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.9 90.8 90.7 90.7 89.8 90.3 90.8
Chemicals .................................................................... 102.1 102.3 102.4 100.9 103.3 103.6 104.0 104.3 104.4 104.8 105.5 106.2 101.9 103.8 105.3
Nonmetallic Mineral Products .................................... 107.1 108.0 109.7 110.6 111.5 109.3 108.8 109.2 109.9 110.7 111.6 112.6 108.9 109.7 111.2
Primary Metals ............................................................. 94.9 96.4 95.7 92.5 92.7 95.3 95.1 94.6 93.6 94.4 96.1 97.4 94.9 94.4 95.4
Coal-weighted Manufacturing (a) ................................... 97.4 97.7 97.2 95.2 95.7 96.1 95.8 95.8 95.4 95.9 96.8 97.6 96.9 95.9 96.4
Distillate-weighted Manufacturing (a) ............................ 100.0 100.5 100.4 99.2 99.3 99.2 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.4 100.1 100.8 100.0 99.2 99.8
Electricity-weighted Manufacturing (a) ........................... 98.5 98.8 98.2 96.0 96.4 96.6 96.5 96.4 96.2 96.6 97.4 98.2 97.9 96.5 97.1
Natural Gas-weighted Manufacturing (a) ....................... 97.0 96.7 95.6 92.7 94.0 93.8 93.5 93.4 93.1 93.4 94.1 94.7 95.5 93.7 93.8

Price Indexes
Consumer Price Index (all urban consumers)
(index, 1982-1984=1.00) ................................................. 2.85 2.92 2.95 2.99 3.01 3.03 3.05 3.08 3.09 3.11 3.13 3.14 2.93 3.05 3.12
Producer Price Index: All Commodities
(index, 1982=1.00) .......................................................... 2.53 2.72 2.70 2.63 2.59 2.54 2.50 2.49 2.48 2.45 2.46 2.47 2.64 2.53 2.46
Producer Price Index: Petroleum
(index, 1982=1.00) .......................................................... 3.16 4.21 3.74 3.44 3.09 2.91 2.89 2.94 2.79 2.75 2.68 2.62 3.64 2.96 2.71
GDP Implicit Price Deflator
(index, 2012=100) ........................................................... 124.2 126.9 128.3 129.5 130.8 131.5 132.2 133.2 134.1 134.9 135.6 136.4 127.2 132.0 135.2

Miscellaneous
Vehicle Miles Traveled (b)
(million miles/day) ............................................................ 8,142 8,910 9,066 8,604 8,362 9,081 9,116 8,725 8,184 8,987 9,230 8,659 8,683 8,823 8,766
Air Travel Capacity
(Available ton-miles/day, thousands) .............................. 656 686 692 700 683 730 740 668 658 715 736 724 684 705 708
Aircraft Utilization
(Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) .............................. 356 419 422 407 390 434 444 407 393 440 446 432 401 419 428
Airline Ticket Price Index
(index, 1982-1984=100) .................................................. 225.6 328.7 293.1 285.2 277.6 290.8 233.6 236.3 250.1 303.3 269.4 264.9 283.1 259.6 271.9
Raw Steel Production
(million short tons per day) .............................................. 0.253 0.253 0.247 0.235 0.236 0.244 0.330 0.306 0.286 0.277 0.280 0.273 0.247 0.279 0.279

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions (million metric tons)


Petroleum .......................................................................... 562 564 576 571 555 570 567 565 556 559 571 566 2,273 2,256 2,252
Natural Gas ....................................................................... 510 374 401 461 502 390 420 464 508 376 415 458 1,746 1,776 1,757
Coal ................................................................................... 244 215 264 212 184 153 247 165 181 154 229 163 935 749 727
Total Energy (c) ................................................................. 1,319 1,155 1,244 1,246 1,243 1,115 1,237 1,197 1,248 1,091 1,217 1,190 4,964 4,792 4,746
(a) Fuel share weights of individual sector indices based on EIA Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey .
(b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles.
(c) Includes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste.
- = no data available
SAAR = Seasonally-adjusted annual rate
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration; and Federal
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System. U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the S&P Global model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Real Gross State Product (Billion $2012)
New England ................ 1,032 1,024 1,031 1,037 1,041 1,045 1,049 1,053 1,054 1,056 1,059 1,063 1,031 1,047 1,058
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,858 2,858 2,879 2,886 2,896 2,909 2,926 2,936 2,941 2,949 2,958 2,969 2,870 2,917 2,954
E. N. Central ................ 2,596 2,583 2,592 2,596 2,603 2,617 2,628 2,635 2,639 2,643 2,650 2,656 2,592 2,621 2,647
W. N. Central ............... 1,220 1,215 1,220 1,221 1,236 1,241 1,246 1,250 1,252 1,255 1,259 1,263 1,219 1,244 1,257
S. Atlantic ..................... 3,578 3,578 3,601 3,627 3,644 3,668 3,689 3,705 3,715 3,727 3,740 3,756 3,596 3,676 3,734
E. S. Central ................ 884 883 887 895 900 904 908 911 913 914 917 919 887 906 916
W. S. Central ............... 2,377 2,383 2,424 2,460 2,476 2,498 2,516 2,527 2,534 2,543 2,555 2,566 2,411 2,504 2,549
Mountain ...................... 1,359 1,354 1,366 1,378 1,387 1,395 1,403 1,409 1,412 1,417 1,423 1,430 1,364 1,399 1,421
Pacific .......................... 3,805 3,802 3,838 3,865 3,881 3,907 3,928 3,943 3,952 3,963 3,976 3,993 3,828 3,915 3,971
Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 2017=100)
New England ................ 97.6 97.9 97.5 96.2 96.2 96.4 96.0 95.2 94.8 94.8 95.1 95.5 97.3 95.9 95.0
Middle Atlantic .............. 95.9 96.6 96.4 95.4 95.1 95.4 94.8 93.9 93.4 93.3 93.4 93.8 96.1 94.8 93.5
E. N. Central ................ 97.4 97.8 97.8 96.6 96.2 96.7 96.4 95.8 95.5 95.5 95.9 96.2 97.4 96.3 95.8
W. N. Central ............... 100.9 101.7 101.8 101.3 101.4 102.0 101.5 100.8 100.5 100.5 100.7 101.1 101.5 101.4 100.7
S. Atlantic ..................... 102.5 103.2 103.2 102.3 102.1 102.7 102.4 101.7 101.3 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.8 102.2 101.6
E. S. Central ................ 100.2 101.2 101.5 100.5 100.3 101.2 101.0 100.3 99.9 99.8 100.1 100.4 100.9 100.7 100.0
W. S. Central ............... 102.4 103.6 104.3 104.1 104.1 104.9 104.8 104.1 103.7 103.8 104.2 104.7 103.6 104.5 104.1
Mountain ...................... 111.6 112.5 112.7 111.3 111.6 112.0 111.6 110.7 110.3 110.3 110.7 111.2 112.0 111.5 110.6
Pacific .......................... 97.7 98.3 98.4 97.5 97.3 97.4 97.0 96.2 95.8 95.7 96.0 96.4 98.0 97.0 96.0
Real Personal Income (Billion $2012)
New England ................ 950 940 941 955 951 953 955 958 964 968 973 977 946 954 971
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,414 2,392 2,397 2,393 2,396 2,404 2,413 2,420 2,436 2,450 2,462 2,473 2,399 2,408 2,455
E. N. Central ................ 2,449 2,430 2,437 2,438 2,444 2,450 2,457 2,464 2,482 2,495 2,508 2,519 2,438 2,454 2,501
W. N. Central ............... 1,164 1,161 1,174 1,171 1,182 1,179 1,180 1,183 1,192 1,198 1,205 1,211 1,168 1,181 1,201
S. Atlantic ..................... 3,396 3,385 3,422 3,447 3,466 3,485 3,501 3,517 3,547 3,571 3,596 3,617 3,413 3,492 3,583
E. S. Central ................ 943 937 943 944 949 952 953 955 960 964 968 971 942 952 965
W. S. Central ............... 2,084 2,085 2,112 2,119 2,129 2,142 2,151 2,160 2,177 2,192 2,206 2,219 2,100 2,145 2,199
Mountain ...................... 1,308 1,307 1,326 1,328 1,333 1,338 1,341 1,345 1,355 1,363 1,372 1,379 1,317 1,339 1,367
Pacific .......................... 2,956 2,929 2,944 2,956 2,944 2,962 2,976 2,991 3,015 3,037 3,057 3,076 2,946 2,968 3,046
Households (Thousands)
New England ................ 6,101 6,100 6,098 6,100 6,118 6,127 6,138 6,149 6,157 6,163 6,170 6,176 6,100 6,149 6,176
Middle Atlantic .............. 16,124 16,119 16,108 16,111 16,152 16,176 16,202 16,230 16,254 16,274 16,293 16,312 16,111 16,230 16,312
E. N. Central ................ 19,058 19,063 19,061 19,068 19,111 19,137 19,170 19,205 19,231 19,252 19,272 19,291 19,068 19,205 19,291
W. N. Central ............... 8,655 8,668 8,678 8,689 8,721 8,744 8,769 8,794 8,817 8,835 8,852 8,868 8,689 8,794 8,868
S. Atlantic ..................... 27,104 27,219 27,317 27,398 27,533 27,635 27,737 27,836 27,919 27,990 28,060 28,122 27,398 27,836 28,122
E. S. Central ................ 7,825 7,847 7,864 7,885 7,924 7,954 7,984 8,015 8,042 8,065 8,087 8,107 7,885 8,015 8,107
W. S. Central ............... 15,856 15,922 15,980 16,030 16,109 16,171 16,237 16,301 16,357 16,406 16,460 16,510 16,030 16,301 16,510
Mountain ...................... 9,792 9,826 9,858 9,882 9,933 9,972 10,014 10,056 10,094 10,130 10,164 10,200 9,882 10,056 10,200
Pacific .......................... 19,052 19,064 19,068 19,075 19,127 19,156 19,187 19,218 19,244 19,265 19,289 19,314 19,075 19,218 19,314
Total Non-farm Employment (Millions)
New England ................ 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.6 7.6
Middle Atlantic .............. 19.6 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 19.8 20.2 20.3
E. N. Central ................ 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.1 22.5 22.5
W. N. Central ............... 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.8 11.0 11.0
S. Atlantic ..................... 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 30.0 30.8 31.0
E. S. Central ................ 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.7
W. S. Central ............... 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 18.4 19.0 19.1
Mountain ...................... 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.6 11.9 12.0
Pacific .......................... 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.1 24.7 24.8
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions.
See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17.
Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding.
Forecasts: U.S. macroeconomic forecasts are based on the IHS Markit model of the U.S. Economy.
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Short-Term Energy Outlook - September 2023
2022 2023 2024 Year
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2022 2023 2024
Heating Degree Days
New England ................ 3,133 784 114 1,978 2,711 815 102 2,061 2,979 828 132 2,054 6,009 5,689 5,993
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,935 669 73 1,961 2,449 654 66 1,887 2,756 662 87 1,881 5,637 5,056 5,385
E. N. Central ................. 3,267 752 99 2,224 2,725 700 112 2,160 3,038 710 122 2,155 6,343 5,697 6,025
W. N. Central ................ 3,487 792 111 2,517 3,170 656 123 2,363 3,183 708 154 2,360 6,907 6,312 6,406
South Atlantic ............... 1,341 189 13 977 1,056 189 11 898 1,294 181 13 891 2,520 2,154 2,379
E. S. Central ................. 1,827 249 22 1,341 1,394 259 17 1,247 1,712 236 19 1,243 3,439 2,917 3,210
W. S. Central ................ 1,335 55 2 802 930 91 3 775 1,105 86 5 772 2,194 1,798 1,968
Mountain ....................... 2,296 732 84 2,015 2,559 726 100 1,820 2,138 701 152 1,815 5,126 5,205 4,806
Pacific ........................... 1,396 604 49 1,294 1,834 659 62 1,147 1,423 576 94 1,143 3,343 3,702 3,236
U.S. Average ............ 2,145 490 54 1,551 1,920 485 58 1,461 2,004 472 75 1,454 4,240 3,924 4,005
Heating Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................ 3,100 853 107 2,103 3,150 859 106 2,093 3,110 856 99 2,069 6,163 6,208 6,134
Middle Atlantic .............. 2,881 681 70 1,904 2,939 689 69 1,907 2,889 685 63 1,889 5,536 5,604 5,527
E. N. Central ................. 3,133 727 97 2,162 3,215 741 93 2,169 3,158 735 93 2,139 6,119 6,218 6,125
W. N. Central ................ 3,221 726 125 2,358 3,319 754 121 2,374 3,295 729 123 2,338 6,430 6,569 6,486
South Atlantic ............... 1,381 187 11 907 1,403 190 10 905 1,356 188 9 896 2,486 2,508 2,449
E. S. Central ................. 1,764 244 15 1,229 1,811 251 14 1,231 1,757 248 14 1,214 3,251 3,307 3,234
W. S. Central ................ 1,144 93 3 753 1,188 95 3 762 1,163 90 3 738 1,993 2,047 1,995
Mountain ....................... 2,173 681 131 1,810 2,193 696 128 1,834 2,207 696 125 1,817 4,794 4,851 4,845
Pacific ........................... 1,457 523 79 1,138 1,441 523 75 1,149 1,468 539 73 1,141 3,196 3,189 3,222
U.S. Average ............ 2,095 478 62 1,472 2,132 485 60 1,477 2,102 483 58 1,457 4,107 4,154 4,100
Cooling Degree Days
New England ................ 0 81 565 0 0 53 486 1 0 99 509 1 646 541 610
Middle Atlantic .............. 0 152 686 1 0 92 626 5 0 185 663 5 839 723 853
E. N. Central ................. 1 257 557 2 0 178 544 7 1 249 608 7 817 729 865
W. N. Central ................ 3 305 734 8 1 320 719 11 5 298 735 11 1,050 1,050 1,049
South Atlantic ............... 156 713 1,201 234 203 590 1,241 255 138 712 1,286 257 2,303 2,288 2,393
E. S. Central ................. 28 596 1,063 36 63 436 1,105 67 34 545 1,129 68 1,723 1,671 1,775
W. S. Central ................ 57 1,091 1,662 170 150 899 1,761 209 104 922 1,625 210 2,980 3,019 2,861
Mountain ....................... 16 473 1,024 65 3 352 1,022 83 21 456 1,031 84 1,577 1,460 1,592
Pacific ........................... 31 221 759 83 26 106 652 78 28 205 720 79 1,093 862 1,032
U.S. Average ............ 47 466 952 90 68 363 946 104 50 444 968 105 1,555 1,481 1,567
Cooling Degree Days, Prior 10-year Average
New England ................ 0 87 472 2 0 87 480 2 0 83 484 2 561 569 569
Middle Atlantic .............. 0 163 612 8 0 160 617 8 0 154 627 8 783 785 789
E. N. Central ................. 3 238 571 9 1 234 561 10 1 230 568 10 821 805 810
W. N. Central ................ 7 299 682 11 4 292 674 12 4 301 681 12 999 982 998
South Atlantic ............... 146 667 1,188 268 143 675 1,193 272 153 674 1,212 272 2,269 2,283 2,312
E. S. Central ................. 44 517 1,056 83 36 520 1,058 83 41 518 1,077 84 1,701 1,697 1,720
W. S. Central ................ 113 852 1,537 224 101 860 1,549 223 109 872 1,573 227 2,726 2,732 2,781
Mountain ....................... 24 463 954 85 24 460 959 83 22 447 969 86 1,526 1,526 1,525
Pacific ........................... 31 208 664 85 32 214 675 86 32 202 680 89 988 1,006 1,003
U.S. Average ............ 53 413 890 109 50 416 895 110 53 414 909 111 1,464 1,470 1,488
- = no data available
Notes: EIA completed modeling and analysis for this report on September 7, 2023.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regional degree days for each period are calculated by EIA as contemporaneous period population-weighted averages of state degree day data published by the National
See Change in Regional and U.S. Degree-Day Calculations (http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/special/pdf/2012_sp_04.pdf) for more information.
The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics.
Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/) for a list of states in each region.
Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
Forecasts: Current month based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml). Remaining months based on
the 30-year trend.

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