Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REGION X - NORTHERN MINDANAO KM3 Fr. W.F. Masterson Avenue, Upper Carmen, Cagayan de Oro City, Misamis onerfat! wun. region10.dila.gov.ph ADVISORY Date: J fie bow | JULY 12, 2022 Time: 70 Sy To : CITY/ MUNICIPAL MAYORS: PROVINCE OF MISAMIS ORIENTAL THRU : ALL C/MLGOOs DILG MISAMIS ORIENTAL SUBJECT : LANINA ADVISORY NO. 9 FOR MINDANAO RESPECTFULY FURNISHING YOU THE ATTACHED ADVISORY FROM DILG 10 REGIONAL OFFICE RELATIVE TO ABOVE MENTIONED SUBJECT DATED JULY 11, 2022. BASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL FORECAST, LA NINA IS WEAKINING OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BUT WEATHER EXPERT JUDGMENT SUGGESTS ITS LIKELY PERSISTENCE UNTIL THE END OF THE YEAR (52-59% CHANCE). IN THIS REGARD, LOCAL GOVERNMENT UNITS ARE HEREBY ENCOURAGED. TO ENSURE PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS MEASURES. FOR INFORMATION AND GUIDANCE. eee es ) enon An c NAYBE, EnP, CESE PROVINCIAL DIRECTOR er 2 ATAK DIEZ “Matino, Mahusay at Maasahan”” ‘T (088) 859-0506 E: cecords cig! 0@qmall com FB: www facebook.convDILGXDILG - Region 10 LG = Region mxo-.cco0-2022-07 388 Misamis Oriente RELEASED a "202207 ‘somo Records Unit Head Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REGION X -NORTHERN MINDANAO Km 3 Fr. W.F. Masterson Avenue, Upper Carmen, Cagayan de Oro City, Misamis Orient ADVISORY To : ALL PROVINCIALICITY DIRECTORS SUBJECT : LA NINA ADVISORY NO. 9 FOR MINDANAO DATE f For ready reference, attached is the Advisory from the Department of Science and Technology - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-PAGASA). signed by Weather Services Chief, Anthony Joseph R. Lucero of the Mindanao PAGASA Regional Service Division. For your information and dissemination. Fe es CAGAI be, Regional Director} LGcoDMLOMBF;ebp TATAK DIEZ “Matino, Mahusay at Msasahan” 7: (088) 859-0806 E: gcc cio! O@gmacom FB: wwe. facebook com/DILGKRepublic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Sevvicas Division (MPRSD) DIG Regen 10 Issued on 07 July 2022 RESEIYV, BD LA NINA ADVISORY NO. 9 FOR MINDANAO we om Hesintene per Although La Nifa is weakening over the Tropical Pacific, most climate models combined with expert judgment still suggest its likely persistence until the end of the year (52-59% chance). This still increases the probability of above normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the region. ' Climate As: for June 2022 The weather systems that affected Mindanao during the month include Low Pressure Area (LPA), Easterlies, Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Southwest Monsoon, Monsoon Trough and localized thunderstorms. Two tropical cyclones (TCs) entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the month, namely TD CALOY and TD DOMENG; fortunately, they had no direct effect to the region. In total, MPRSD issued twelve (12) Heavy Rainfall Warnings due to the aforementioned weather systems (Table 1a). These weather systems resulted to flooding incidents, rain-induced landslides, high-rise water level and overflowed rivers in some areas of Mindanao (Figure 1), However, there were no threats over the major river basins in Mindanao; hence, no subsequent river basin flood advisories were issued Table 1a. Heavy Rainfall Warnings issued by MPRSD Local Weather Forecasting Section for June 2022. WEATHER SYSTEM TPA 2 TTCZ a 2 { Easteries / Wind Convergence 2 I 4 2 ‘Wind Convergence: TTCZ/ Easteries TOTAL _ Our previous deterministic forecast for June 2022 suggested that near normal rainfall with patches of above normal rainfall over Surigao del Norte and Dinagat Islands are expected in Mindanao. Conversely, the actual rainfall received for the said month was generally way below fo near normal over areas in the Davao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN, below to near normal over Caraga and BARMM, and near to above normal over Zamboanga Peninsula and Northen Mindanao (Figure 2, Table 2 and Table 5). Based on all surface observations in Mindanao (Table 2), the Automated Weather Station (AWS) in Pitogo, Zamboanga de! Sur recorded the highest total monthly rainfall amount of 496.5mm, followed by Marawi agrometeorological station that recorded 354.8mm. In addition, Pitogo AWS recorded the highest number of wet days and Marawi Agromet observed the greatest 24-hour rainfall of 95.0mm among all the stations in the region. Meanwhile, General Santos recorded the lowest total monthly rainfall and the lowest number of wet days. Further analysis showed that Mindanao generally experienced near normal number of wet days for the month, with areas of above normal over the Zamboanga Peninsula, and areas of below normal over the Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN, Caraga and BARMM (Figure 3). There were aiso no records of exceedance ‘on monthly and daily rainfall among the synoptic stations of the region. “wack the shy. ein te county” Motugan, £1 Savador City “al Nes. (088) 365 0485 Wobete Ruano pes. dost acy Mobile” +63 916 376 80:7Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services. Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) Figure 1. (a) High-rise water level in Magpet River, North Cotabato leading to floods along its river channels on 10 June 2022 due to the ITCZ. '(b) Urban flooding in the uptown area of Cagayan De Oro City * and (e) rain-induced landslide resulling to impassable Emie Road in Marawi Cily " on 21 June 2022 due to localized thunderstorms. (d) Flooding in Malapatan, Sarangani on 04 June 2022 due to localized thunderstorms. * (e) Flashflood incident in ‘sulan, Suitan Kudarat on 19 June 2022 due to localized thunderstorms.” (P) loading in Kalamansig, Sultan Kudarat (on 21 June 2022 due to localized thunderstorms. " News Courtesy: Newsline Philippines Official Facebook Account; Video Courtesy: Robert Pacete, as of 13 sune 2022 ah Kisha, as of 22 June 2022. * News Courtesy: GMA Regional TV; Video Courtesy: Mi " News Courtesy: GMA Regional 1V; Photo Courtesy: Marawi CDRRMO, as of 22 June 2022. * incident Report of MORRMO Malapatan, as of OB lune 2022 "Incident Report of PRRMC Sultan Kudarat, as of 13 June 2022, ™ Incident Report of PORRMC Sultan Kudarat, as of 22 June 2022. “tracing the sty..eping the country Molugan, El Savador Cty Te. Nos. (088) 555 0405 Webste: iy boaois pasa Mobile. +63 216.376 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSO) ‘FOR JUNE 2022 + Figure 2. Actual Raintat Observed (mm and %Normal in Mindanao for June 2022. NORMAL NUMeEn OF WET DAYS FOR JUNE (1993-2020) [TOTAL NUMER OF WET DANS FORJUNE 2022 Figure 3. Actual Number of Wet Days (mm and %Normal) in Mindanao for June 2022. “racking tho shy...elping the county” Molugan,€1 Salvador City Tol Nos. (088) $65 0485, Webster fr tinso. paca soe ov. Mobil +63 916 376 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services ‘Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSO) fable 2. Monthly Rainfall Assossmont in Mindanao for June 2022." RAINFALL SAK ft eS cowcane | uae | Grete Licaal usu al | case [aiythan| oan | SO | | | iytlay 3 me an __1R6 Dinas bug x] Bini [eoabao irr wine ay sini 1 met] Gun 9 2] vs] Hon) Gener Sans 16 wo] eine 6 Lanboogs Bee 2 and (OA utdron fata lanse Sindngan Kates ~ Red box in Table 2 indicate derived normal values “raching ho 2hy..heong the county” Motugan, £1 Savador City Tol. Nos. (68) 555 0485, Mobile" +83 916 376 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) Detailed analysis showed that Kabacan AWS and Cotabato synoptic station recorded the top two highest monthly maximum temperatures. Meanwhile, Ninoy Aquino AWS in the highland of Sultan Kudarat recorded the lowest monthly minimum temperature, followed by Marawi agromet in the highland of Lanao de! Sur. Moreover, no records of exceedance were observed in terms of daytime and nightime temperatures (Table 3). Table 8. Monthly Temperature Assessment in Mindanao for June 2022 j Wann TBAT a TOT ] | \ | | } omer ome lanancoe to, | basin | 2M | Smee fanaa STATON — | ighest| Date cts Darton omens ge] | dowel NOUS cg Pena) te | | cea eae] Tt Nat at aay | P=] ee [_a8 pena 30) ote] 82 0, 25] oi] Be 205 _ hurd 185 awa) 203 6 79, in Bi ri ui ats racing te ayn We county Molugan, £1 Savador Cs To Nos (0) 55 0805 Web” iy, Monger ps Moble® #63 816 376 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services ‘Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) Seasonal Climate Outlook for July to December 2022 Weather systems that will likely affect Mindanao during the period include Tropical Cyclones, Low Pressure Areas (LPAs), Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Easterlies, Tail-End of the Frontal System (TEFS) or Shear Line, localized thunderstorms, Southwest Monsoon, and Northeast Monsoon (in transition on October) PAGASA monthly deterministic forecasts from computer models suggest that majority of the region will ikely to receive near normal rainfall during the period, with few areas of above normal rainfall during July, October, November and December 2022. “ In comparison to selected international climate forecasts ° ", majority of the computer models suggest likelihood of near normal rainfall conditions in most areas during July, November and December 2022, while above normal rainfall conditions for the rest of the forecast period. However, it is important to note that some of these models also show the possibility of below normal rainfall over the Zamboanga Peninsula from July to August 2022, and above normal rainfall over the same region on November to December 2022. Moreover, international climate forecasts show that near normal rainfall is likely in most areas during Oct-Nov-Dec (OND) season, while above normal rainfall conditions are expected during Jul-Aug-Sep (JAS), Aug-Sep-Oct (ASO), and Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) seasons. Meanwhile, some of these models also show likelihood of below to near normal rainfall during JAS season and above normal during OND season over the Zamboanga Peninsula. On the other hand, official rainfall probabilistic forecasts show that there is higher probability for above normal rainfall conditions for the forecast duration with approximately 37% to 60% chance (Table 4), with highest likelihood of 60% over the stations in Caraga region by October 2022. Comparatively, most of the intemational climate models ‘* and multi-mode! ensembles (MMEs) ** show 50% chance of either above or near normal rainfall conditions in Mindanao during the months of July, August, October and November 2022. Meanwhile, near normal rainfall is highly possible in most portions of the region during the month of December 2022, while 40% to 50% likelihood of above normal rainfall in September 2022. Some of the mode! outputs also suggest 40 to 50% probability of below normal rainfall, and 40 to 50% chance of near normal rainfall in most areas of the Zamboanga Peninsula and the Surigao Provinces in July and September 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, there is also 40 to 50% chance of above normal rainfall in the Surigao Provinces in December 2022. These models also show 50% of either near or above normal rainfall conditions in most areas during the JAS season, while 40 to 70% above normal rainfall is expected during the ASO, SON and OND seasons. In addition, historical data were assessed to determine the rainfall conditions of Mindanao during the previous years with similar La Niria conditions, and composite forecasts were made (Figure 4), Past data revealed that above normal rainfall is likely in most portions of Mindanao during August and November. Majority of the areas in the Davao Region, as well as some areas in the provinces of Bukidnon, Cotabato, Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Sur will also likely receive above normal rainfall in September, while the rest of Mindanao are expected to experience near normal rainfall. Meanwhile, generally near normal rainfall conditions for the rest of the forecast period with some areas of above normal rainfall in the provinces of Davao Occidental and Sarangani for the month of July; in the provinces of Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte and Surigao del Norte for the month of October; and in the regions of Davao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Norther Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN for the month of December. ‘raching the shy. ely the country Motugan Et Salvador City Tet. Nos. (080) 565 0405 ‘Webena”hit yaa, ponasa. cost Mobile" #83 616.376 6017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services. ‘Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) Table 4. Probabilistic Forecast Wolaybalay | 28. Baten | 71 sa » Gauss | 29 Dpeog 20 Gaveo | 28 instar 38 |General ants] |iamboangs SSE wre Station in Mindanao for Jul 2022 — Dec 2022." hella eee Figure 4. MPRSD Localized Rainfall Forecasts (%Normal) for July to December 2022. Motigan, £1 Salvador City Webste" Tal Nos. (088) 565 0485, Mobi: 1963918 378 8017BaD ~wric or Phiippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services ‘Administration (PAGASA) Mandanao PAGASA Regional Services Dnision (MPRSD) Table 5. Observed Rainfall in Percent of Normal (Jan 2022 ~ Jun 2022) and ee Forecast Rainfall in Percent of Normal (Jul 2022 ~ Dec 2022)."* Eas (OBSERVED RANFALL (KAORIAL) FORECAST RANEALL (NORMAL) I “naz |e 22 [wan za] aPR 2a [war za] a7 | sue 2 [aus 22 | Sep zz [oct zz | wow 22| neo 22 | ‘AMBOANGA DEL NORTE {ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR [ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY (Wawovenonre | sans ocaextaL j {SAMs ORAL ‘wv DE ORO [pawocrry ao 6 RTE SAADEELSUR OvAO GCCOETAL bano one. NORTH COTABATO SARENGANL ‘SULTAN KUDARAT cise. WATE pais wea sas fc0 98 SURIGAO DEL SUR ie { (NAO DELSUR su j [rani olugan, £1 Saivado Tal Noa. (068) £65 0485, Wwabete Mobile” #63 816 376 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services. ‘Administration (PAGASA) ‘Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) Moreover, dry days ** forecast for Mindanao shown in Table 6. Temperature forecast on the other hand, * indicates that Mindanao will likely experience near to warmer than average surface ‘temperatures for the period of July to December 2022. ‘Table 6. Forecast Dry Days in Mindanao for July to December 2022 per province. MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL MISAMIS ORIENTAL. REGION Xi, ‘COMPOSTELA VALLEW/ DAVAO DE ORO [Davao cry Davao DEL NORT | DAVAO DEL SUR | DAVAO OceIDENTAL DAVAO ORIENTAL ‘SOUTH COTABATO [DINAGATISLANDS SURIGAO DEL NORTE | DEL SUR. “eacking he sy..ebing te cory Motigan, El Savador Ciy Websta!ip iboaans nasa dost. ov URIGAODELNORTE | {8 34 9 | ‘SURIGAO DEL SUR i 18 14 10 io | ‘ARMM CT ‘MAGUINDANAO Tol. Nos. 088) $85 048s, Mobie #65 916.976 8017Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services ‘Administration (PAGASA) Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) With this development, MPRSD will continue to closely monitor the weakening La Nifia, which could still influence development of extreme weather conditions that can adversely affect Mindanao islands. Updates shail be issued as appropriate. All concerned Government Units and institutions including non-government organizations and the public are advised to take appropriate actions conceming this current climate condition and keep monitoring for updates. For further information, please contact the Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division (MPRSD) at (088) 555-0485 or the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at (02) 8284-0800 local 906. Mw ANTHONY JOSEPH R. LUCERO, M.Sc./iL» Pt Weather Services Chief Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division "La Nia Advisory No. 10 by PAGASA CAD-CUIMPS issued on 0S July 2022. " Buayan ‘talungon REFFWC CMO — saymar Artigas. incident and Situational Reports obtained from PORRMC Sultan Kudarat and MDRRMO Malapatan for June 2022. * Media reports from NewsLine Philippines and GMA Regional TV Climate Outlook (July - December 2022) during the 149" National Climate Forum by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS an 29 June 2022. * National Weather Service (NWS) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ‘Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2 for Jul 2022 to Mar 2023, updated 06 July 2022. [APEC Climate Center {APCC) Deterministic Mult: mode! Ensemble (MME) Forecasts, issued on 15 June 2022 © Climate Outlook (July ~ December 2022} during the 149" National Climate Forum by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS on 29 June 2022. ~ UK Met fice. Global long-range model orobability maps for JAS 2022, ASO 2022 and SON 2022, issued June 2022 * APEC Climate Center (APCC) Probabilistic Multi-mode! Ensemble (MME) Forecasts issued on 15 June 2022. “World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Lead Centre for Long: Range Forecast (LRF) Multi-Mode! Ensemble (MME) for July to December 2022, issued on June 2022, * International Research Institute for Climate and Society. if! Multi-Mode! Probability Forecast for Precipitation for JAS 2022 ASO 2022, SON 2022 and OND 2022, issued Sune 2022. Climate Outlook (July - December 2022} during the 149° National Climate Forum by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS on 29 June 2022. “bi. * Ibid. ™ Forecast Monthly Mean Temperature Anomaly for July to December 2022, relative to 1991-2020 climatological normal, issued by PAGASA CAD-CLIMPS. tracking the sky...elpng the county” Molugan,E1 Salvador City Tat Nos. (088) 555 0485 Websde: tty ang pages cot Mobile" +63 916 378 8017