N13 2013 Intro To Economics Chapter 12 - Macro Intro
N13 2013 Intro To Economics Chapter 12 - Macro Intro
N13 2013 Intro To Economics Chapter 12 - Macro Intro
12
THE NATURE & SCOPE OF MACROECONOMICS
Macroeconomics deals with the performance of the economy in aggregate, and the relationships
between broad aggregates of each sector, as opposed to Microeconomics which deals with the
individual unit - whether that unit is a person, a firm or an industry.
A broad simplification would be to say that macroeconomics is the summation of all micro-economies
in the goods, services, factors and financial markets.
Although Microeconomics forms the essential basis for Macroeconomics [and more and more Macro
economists are looking for Micro foundations for Macro theory], some of the explicit assumptions in
Micro theory may not necessarily be valid for Macroeconomic theory,
Obviously Microeconomic principles are a vital foundation for Macroeconomic policies. The
government might tax beer or cigarettes due to their price inelasticity of demand; it won't put a tax on
green shoes!
Macroeconomic policy is concerned with "fixing" the economy, or altering it in a certain manner:
Normative Economics [i.e. what should be].
Since John Maynard Keynes produced his "General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in
1936 [which effectively introduced the whole concept of "Macro" economics], fundamental differences
of opinion have arisen amongst economists about the way in which an economy behaves, and what are
the best ways and means to tackle these Macroeconomic problems.
There are now several schools of thought, ranging from one extreme to the other.
The major schools of thought are: Classical (pre 1936); Keynesian (1936 to date) and Neo-Classical
(1957 to date).
KEYNESIAN
NEO-CLASSICAL
1. Unemployment
2. Inflation
3. Economic Growth
4. Balance of Payments
5. Regional Balance
Different countries, and different political parties within those countries, will rank these in differing
orders of importance. [So does the British government, depending upon which variables are looking
healthy at any given time!]
Gross National Income is the summation of all factor incomes in an economy in any given time period
[normally a year].
It includes all incomes earned by domestically owned factors of production, but excludes all transfer
payments.
So, Singapore's GNI includes income earned by everyone in this room, including dividends on shares
you might own in American companies in the U. S. A., or rent on a property you own in Malaysia,
i.e. it does not relate exclusively to income earned in Singapore.
Gross Domestic Product is the value of all final goods and services produced in an economy in any
given time period [normally a year].
The "final" is vital, so as to avoid double counting. At each stage of manufacturing a good, only the
value added to that good at that stage of manufacture is counted as part of GDP.
i.e. if a company sold integrated circuits to a computer manufacturer for $2 million, and the
computers produced were sold for $3 million, only $1 million has been added to GDP by the
computer company -
The output of a Japanese company based in Singapore is included in Singapore's GDP, but the output
of a Singapore company based in Malaysia isn't included in Singapore's GDP.
Gross National Product is the value of all final goods and services produced by domestically owned
factors of production in any given time period [normally a year].
The output of a British owned firm in Singapore is included in the UK's GNP, but not in the UK's GDP. It
is included in Singapore's GDP. International comparisons are thus normally made using GDP data so
as to avoid double counting.
- that is, the summation of all output by domestically owned factors of production should equate
to the income derived from those factors of production.
In practice, however, GNP > GNI by between 3% and 5% in the UK - and up to 20% in certain
European economies like Italy - due to tax evasion.
It is easier to measure output than income. People are more willing to tell the truth about what they
spend rather than about what they earn!!!!
GDP at market prices measures domestic output inclusive of indirect taxes on goods and services.
The market price of a good, which includes G.S.T. and any sales tax, is not the amount of net revenue
received by the producer.
GDP at Factor Cost measures domestic output exclusive of indirect taxes on goods and services -
i.e. - the net amount actually received by the factors of production which manufactured the good.
GNP at market prices measures output owned by domestic factors of production, no matter where
their location is, inclusive of indirect taxes on goods and services.
GNP at Factor Cost measures output owned by domestic factors of production, no matter where
their location is, exclusive of indirect taxes on goods and services. GNP at Factor Cost is also
referred to at Net National Product.
Net
Income
from
abroad
Gross
National
Product
at Gross
Market Domestic GNP = GDP + Net Income from abroad
Prices Product
at
Market
Prices
It is actually GNP at Factor Cost which we will be dealing with this year – but we won’t call it that.
Because what one person spends is what somebody else earns, we can measure income – and hence
output – by measuring spending. Spending in an economy can be broken down into a few major
components:
•• Consumption Expenditure - which is all spending by individuals (on clothes, food, housing,
holidays, books, trips to the cinema, etc., etc.)
•• Investment Expenditure - which is all spending by firms on capital equipment which leads
to the production of consumption goods
•• IMport Expenditure - which is spending by our citizens on foreign goods and services
326 Introduction to Economics
SIM Global Education
G Government Expenditure
Gross National
National Income
Product I Investment Expenditure
at
Factor
Cost Y
C Consumption Expenditure
Y = C + I + G + (X − M)
Output/Expenditure $m Income $m
Consumption spending 150 Wages 135
Investment spending 30 Rent 20
Government spending 60 Profit 45
Spending on Exports
less spending on imports 10
GDP AT MARKET PRICES 250 NET NATIONAL INCOME 200
Factor Income from abroad 10 Factor Income from abroad 10
GNP AT MARKET PRICES 260 GROSS NATIONAL INCOME 210
Less: Indirect taxation (50)
GNP AT FACTOR COST 210
Less: Depreciation (20) Less: Depreciation (20)
NATIONAL INCOME 190 NATIONAL INCOME 190
AT FACTOR COST AT FACTOR COST
Footnote: In 2013 China accounts for only about 10% of World GDP
[Projected GDP in 2038, US$ bn; assuming the same average annual growth rate as 1982-2012,
excluding the financial crisis of 2008/2009]
Footnote: If these projections are correct, in 2038 China will account for about 25% of World GDP
[Projected GDP a century from now, US$ bn; assuming the same average annual growth rate as
1982-2012, excluding the financial crisis of 2008/2009]
Footnote: If these projections are correct, in 2110 China will account for 92.5% of World GDP
GDP and GNP are measures of economic activities which enter the market, and are recorded by the
government (mainly for taxation purposes).
The comparison between GDP figures for Japan and, say Bangladesh is thus to a certain extent invalid:
it merely exaggerates the differences between rich and poor countries.
In Zimbabwe in 1986, it was estimated that only 23% of economic activity was actually captured by
government statistics - and Zimbabwe was then one of the three most advanced economies in sub-
Saharan Africa!
Let's say that the Republic of Bongoland had GDP of $1,000 million in 2006, and has GDP of $1,200
in 2007. Nominal economic growth is 20%.
But if inflation in Bongoland was 15% between 2006 and 2007, real economic growth is:
1 + 20%
−1 × 100% = 4.35%
1 + 15%
An Ideal Fischer Price Index, which is a combination of a Laspères Price Index and a Paasche Price
Index.
The Laspères price index is calculated: The Paasche price index is calculated:
Sj = n Sj = n
p1j q0j
Σ
Sj = 1
Σ p1 q1
Sj = 1
j j
Lp = Sj = n
× 100 Pp = Sj = n × 100
p0j q0j p0j q1j
Σ
Sj = 1
Σ
Sj = 1
where: p = price
q = quantity
0 = time period 0 (previous period)
1 = time period 1 (current period)
Elementary example:
2009 2010 2009 2010
price price quantity quantity
Measured by the Laspèyres index, the cost of living has risen by 4.7%. If incomes have not risen, the
standard of living has fallen by 4.5% (4.7 as a fraction of 104.7).
Measured by the Paasche index, the cost of living has risen by 4.42%. If incomes have not risen, the
standard of living has fallen by 4.2% (4.42 as a fraction of 104.42).
When looking at economic growth over a period of time in an economy, it is useful to change the base
such that real growth can easily be recognised.
It is meaningless to quote nominal GDP figures for 1983, 1993, 2003 and 2013 when there would
have been inflation during those 30 years, inflation which would, moreover, have varied at different
times over the three decades.
It is useful to deflate or inflate nominal GDP figures according to the retail price index, thereby getting
a string of data at "constant 2009 prices" as opposed to "at current prices".
REAL GDP:
• Constant 2009 prices 1,000 1,028 1,071 1,131
• Constant 2010 prices 1,069 1,100 1,146 1,210
• Constant 2011 prices 1,164 1,198 1,250 1,320
• Constant 2012 prices 1,253 1,289 1,345 1,425
GDP Deflator (2013) 87.9 90.4 94.4 100.0
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SIM Global Education
What is more significant when comparing countries' economies, therefore, is the GNP per capita or
the GDP per capita (i.e. GNP or GDP per person) rather than simply a comparison of GNP or GDP.
GNP
GNP per capita is:
POPULATION
GDP figures and GDP per capita figures are normally quoted in US $ terms for international
comparison. What is far more meaningful than the mere size of an economy is the relative richness of
the average individual within that society – the GNP per capita.
For example, a Big Mac may cost S $3.40 in Singapore, but costs the Singaporean equivalent of
S$7.00 in ¥ in Tokyo. Thus a Japanese fast food freak is less well off than his Singaporean
counterpart, even if he earns twice the salary.
On the other hand, a brand new Mercedes 200 costs S$ 400,000 here, but in the UK costs less than
S$ 75,000. A Singaporean thus has to be earning 5.333’ times more here than in the UK to give him
the same standard of living as the UK.
I was in Bermuda in August 2012, staying with a friend of my sister’s. On my last evening there, I took
my host out for a simple meal: pizza. Not an expensive place like Pizza Hut – just a simple family
restaurant. Three people: two pizzas, one spaghetti, one bottle of red wine and two deserts. The bill:
US$350.
There is a girl from China, now in Year 2 (DE last year). I was walking along with her in Clementi Mall
just before Chinese New Year. She said: “everything here has the same nominal price as in China”.
We were passing a little store selling phone-covers. What she meant was that something that cost
$20 here costs 20 RMB in China. Something that costs $5 here costs 5 RMB in China. The thing is,
at the stage there were 5 Yuan to one Singapore dollar.
A way of getting around this is to adjust GDP figures for purchasing power parity.
The I. M. F. came up with a purchasing power parity deflator in 1993, which is now updated on a
monthly basis in their International Financial Statistics. It monitors the cost of a typical bundle of goods
in all nations, and then adjusts the per capita GDP statistics for the purchasing power of those figures.
The Economist does it’s own “Purchasing Power Parity” table every year, done on the price of a Big
Mac in 25 different countries. What started as a joke about 31 years ago is now quite a serious
exercise: it gives very powerful predictions as to future currency fluctuations!
It takes the USA as its base line, and then sees the cost of living varies in other countries. If something
which costs US$10 in the United States costs, say, the equivalent of US$20 in Japan, then Japanese
GDP per capita figures are divided by 2 to give a more realistic indication of how “rich” Japanese
people are, on average.
Japanese people might earn a lot more money than others, but if their cost of living is much higher,
then in real terms – in terms of purchasing power – they are not richer.
If something which costs US$10 in the US costs, say, the equivalent of $2.50 in China, then Chinese
GDP per capita figures are multiplied by 4 to give a more realistic indication of how “rich” Chinese
people are, on average.
Chinese salaries might be lower than those in Singapore, but if prices of food, accommodation and
transport are much lower, Chinese people could be richer than Singaporeans in terms of how many
goods and services their salaries can buy.
GDP data, in no matter what format it is presented, does not by itself show the true standard of living
of a nation, either for individual analysis or for international comparison.
•• Data from non O.E.C.D. countries may be inaccurate, thus rendering comparisons
meaningless. Inaccuracies may occur in output figures, inflation estimates or population
growth estimates.
•• GDP figures exclude time expenditure on leisure, hence underestimating the growth of
welfare in a country.
•• GDP data does not show anything about the distribution of income in a society. It merely
shows a mathematical mean which may be totally unrepresentative.
Iran in 1978 - a year before the revolution - had GDP per capita of US$ 6,000 - very
respectable, considering the US equivalent at the time was $13,000, and Germany $10,500.
But this raw data hid the fact that 99% of the wealth was held by 2% of the population: for
the remaining population, true income per annum was probably less than $500.
In February 1990 when Nelson Mandela was released from prison, GDP per capita in South
Africa was US$ 4,250 - the highest in Africa (neighbouring Mozambique's was US$ 120).
However, the average annual incomes of the 4 million white people exceeded US$ 30,000,
(that's S$43,200) while the average annual incomes of the 30 million black people was less
than $ 850.
The Lorenz curve shows the distribution of income in a society, by plotting cumulative percentage of
income received in the economy against the cumulative percentage of income recipients. It thus
gives a far clearer indication of the level of equitable welfare in an economy or nation.
Cumulative 100%
Percentage
of
Income
Received
0% 100%
Cumulative Percentage
of
Income Recipients
The closer the curve is to the diagonal (which would imply an exactly equal distribution of income), the
"fairer" is the share of wealth.
336 Introduction to Economics
SIM Global Education
Obviously, the more "bowed" the Lorenz curve is, the more inequitable is the distribution of income in
an economy.
Cumulative 100%
Percentage
of
Income
Received
0% 100%
Cumulative Percentage
of
Income Recipients
…… has a very flat Lorenz Curve, which means that income is fairly evenly distributed.
Cumulative 100%
Percentage
of
Income
Received
0% 100%
Cumulative Percentage
of
Income Recipients
…… has a very bowed Lorenz Curve, which means that income is not evenly distributed.
[If you ever have to look for a Gini coefficient, the Lorenz curve is a good place to start your hunt…….]