0% found this document useful (0 votes)
41 views21 pages

02 Fundamentals of Probability

This document discusses fundamentals of probability through examples and theorems of counting sample points. It covers basic concepts like sample space, events, and operations on events. Examples show how to list sample points for compound experiments and define events. Theorems explain how to calculate the number of possible outcomes for sequential experiments using multiplication, and for selections/arrangements using permutations and factorials. The document aims to introduce key probability terms and counting methods for analyzing experiments and determining the number of possible results.

Uploaded by

Hanna Joy Lasi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
41 views21 pages

02 Fundamentals of Probability

This document discusses fundamentals of probability through examples and theorems of counting sample points. It covers basic concepts like sample space, events, and operations on events. Examples show how to list sample points for compound experiments and define events. Theorems explain how to calculate the number of possible outcomes for sequential experiments using multiplication, and for selections/arrangements using permutations and factorials. The document aims to introduce key probability terms and counting methods for analyzing experiments and determining the number of possible results.

Uploaded by

Hanna Joy Lasi
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 21

MATH 403

ENGINEERING DATA
ANALYSIS

MODULE 2. FUNDAMENTALS
OF PROBABILITY

ENGR. KENNETH FAJARDO


Faculty-in-charge
2. Fundamentals of Probability

Agenda
1. Basic Concepts of Probability
2. Counting Sample Points

2022 – MATH 403 2


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Probability

▪ Probability is a chance of something will happen.

▪ Definition 1: The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is


called the sample space and is represented by the symbol S. Each outcome in
a sample space is called an element, or a member of the sample space, or
simply a sample point.
𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
sample space elements

2022 – MATH 403 3


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Example 1

Consider an experiment of flipping a coin, what are the possible outcomes?

𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}

2022 – MATH 403 4


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Example 2

An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a


head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed once. List the
possible sample points.

▪ Flip a coin
▪ Head – flip again: HH, HT
▪ Tail – toss a dice: T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇1, 𝑇2, 𝑇3, 𝑇4, 𝑇5, 𝑇6}


2022 – MATH 403 5
2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Example 3

Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process.
Each item is inspected and classified defective D, or non-defective N. List the
elements of the sample space.
D D
D D S = {DDD, DDN, DND,
D N N N
DNN, NDD, NDN, NND,
NNN}
D D
N N = 8 elements

N N
2022 – MATH 403 6
2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Rule Method

▪ Sample space with a large or infinite number of sample points are best
described by a statement or rule method.
▪ For example, if the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in
the world with a population over 1 million, our sample space is written

𝑆 = {𝑥|𝑥 is a city with population over 1M}


▪ Another example, if S is a set of all points (x,y) on the boundary or the interior
of a circle of radius 2 with center at the origin, we write the rule

𝑆 = {(𝑥, 𝑦)|𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2 ≤ 4}
2022 – MATH 403 7
2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Probability

▪ Definition 2: An event is a subset of a sample space.

Example 4
Given the sample space S = {t|t ≥ 0},where t is the life in years of a certain
electronic component, then the event A that the component fails before the end
of the fifth year is the subset

𝐴 = {𝑡|0 ≤ 𝑡 ≤ 5}

2022 – MATH 403 8


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Probability

▪ Definition 3: The complement of an event A with respect to S is a subset of all


element of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol
A’.

Example 5
Consider the sample space
𝑆={𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑘,𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒,𝑚𝑝3,𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟,𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑦,𝑙𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑝}
Let A = {book, stationery, laptop, paper}
Then the complement of A is A’ = {cellphone, mp3}

2022 – MATH 403 9


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Probability

▪ Definition 4: The intersection of two events A and B denoted by the symbol


A∩B, is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.

Example 6
Let E be the event that a person selected at random in a classroom is majoring in
engineering, and let F be the event that the person is female. Then E∩F is the
event of all female engineering students in the classroom.

2022 – MATH 403 10


2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability

Probability

▪ Definition 6: The union of the two events A and B, denoted by the symbol AUB,
is the event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or both.

Example 8
Let P be the event that an employee selected at random from an oil drilling
company smokes cigarettes. Let Q be the event that the employee selected
drinks alcoholic beverages. Then the event PUQ is the set of all employees who
either drink or smoke or do both.

2022 – MATH 403 11


Questions?

2022 – MATH 403 12


2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 1

▪ If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these ways a


second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be
performed together in n1n2 ways.

Example 9
How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of dice is
thrown once?
N1 = 6
N2 = 6
N1N2 = 6(6) = 36 samples
2022 – MATH 403 13
2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 1

▪ If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these ways a


second operation can be performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be
performed together in n1n2 ways.

Example 10
If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many different
ways can these two to be elected?
N1 = 22
N2 = 21
N1N2 = 22(21) = 462 ways
2022 – MATH 403 14
2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 2
▪ If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these a second
operation can be performed in n2 ways, and for each of the first two a third
operation can be performed in n3 ways, and so forth, then the sequence of k
operations can be performed in n1n2...nk ways.

Example 11
Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips
from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory
bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can Sam order the parts?
N1 = 2, N2 = 4, N3 = 3, N4 = 5
N1N2N3N4 = 2(4)(3)(5) = 120 ways
2022 – MATH 403 15
2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 3
▪ A permutation is a specific arrangement of all or part of a set of objects. The
number of permutation of n objects is n!

Example 12
In how many ways can 5 examinees be lined up to go inside the testing centers?

N = 5!
= 5(4)(3)(2)(1)
= 120 ways
2022 – MATH 403 16
2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 4
▪ The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝑛P𝑟 = ,𝑟 ≤ 𝑛
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
Example 13
In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given to a
class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If each student can
receive at most one award, how many possible selections are there?
n = 25, r = 3
25!
25P3 = = 13800 ways
(25−3)!
2022 – MATH 403 17
2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 5
▪ The number of permutations of n object arranged in a circle is (n-1)!
Permutation that occur by arranging objects in a circle are called circular
permutations.
Example 14
In how many ways can 6 students be seated in a round dining table?

N = (n-1)!
= (6-1)!
= 120 ways

2022 – MATH 403 18


2.2 Counting Sample Points
Theorem 6
▪ The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind, n2
of a second kind,..., nk of a kth kind is (sum. Of denom = numerator)
𝑛!
N=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !
Example 15
In a college football training session, the defensive coordinator needs to have 10
players standing in a row. Among these 10 players, there are 1 freshman, 2
sophomores, 4 juniors and 3 seniors. How many different ways can they be
arranged in a row if only their class level will be distinguished?

10!
N= = 12600 ways
1!⋅2!⋅4!⋅3!

2022 – MATH 403 19


2.2 Counting Sample Points

Theorem 7
▪ The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
𝑛!
𝑛C𝑟 = ,𝑟 ≤ 𝑛
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!
Example 16
How many ways are there to select 3 applicants from 8 equally qualified
Engineers for a Staff Engineer position in a Structural design company.

n = 8, r = 3
8!
8C3 = = 56 ways
3!(8−3)!
2022 – MATH 403 20
Questions?

2022 – MATH 403 21

You might also like