ER Week 5 - Agenda

• Counting Principle
• Probability
Counting Principle
 Counting Principle
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Counting Principle
Counting Principle
 Life is a Probability Problem
• Lottery
• Casino
• Umbrella
• Driving in the snow
• Study for a test
• Insurance - life, health, home, auto
• Extended warrantee
 Probability Example
• 10 marbles in a bag, 6 blue and 4 red.
• If I draw one marble at random, what is the
probability that it will be blue?
 Probability Example
• 10 marbles in a bag, 6 blue and 4 red.
• If I draw one marble at random, what is the
probability that it will be blue?
6 in 10, 6/10, 0.6, 60%
• If I throw that marble away, what is the
probability of drawing another blue
marble?
 Probability Example
• 10 marbles in a bag, 6 blue and 4 red.
• If I draw one marble at random, what is the
probability that it will be blue?
6 in 10, 6/10, 0.6, 60%
• If I throw that marble away, what is the
probability of drawing another blue
marble?
5 in 9, 5/9, .56, 56%
 Dice Example
• If we roll a fair, six-sided die, what is the
probability of rolling a 6?
• An odd number?
• A number greater than 4?
• A number greater than or equal to 4?
 Dice Example
• If we roll a fair, six-sided die, what is the
probability of rolling a 6?
1 in 6
• An odd number?
3 in 6
• A number greater than 4?
2 in 6
• A number greater than or equal to 4?
3 in 6, or 1 in 2
 Key Vocabulary
• Probability measures the likelihood of an event
happening
• To show a probability as a fraction:
– The numerator is the number of possible “successes”
or “examined outcomes”
– The denominator is the TOTAL number of possible
outcomes
• Probabilities are between 0% and 100%
– 0% is an “impossibility” and 100% is a “certainty”
 How about a pair of dice?
• What are the possible rolls of a pair of
dice?
 How about a pair of dice?
• What are the probabilities of each roll?
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Independent Events
• Independent events do not affect each
other.
– We say that each event is independent from
each other event.
 Example
• I have a fair coin with a probability of
coming up heads of 50%.
• If I flip 5 heads in a row, what is the
probability of flipping heads the 6th time?
 Example
• I have a fair coin with a probability of
coming up heads of 50%.
• If I flip 5 heads in a row, what is the
probability of flipping heads the 6th time?
– The probability is still 50%
 Independence
• The human brain ‘wants’ to see patterns.
– ‘Seeing’ constellations in the stars is one
example.
– ‘Seeing’ numbers about to come up at a
Roulette table is another.
• Each coin flip is Independent; it is NOT
affected by previous flips.
 Theoretical v Experimental
• Theoretical probability describes what
results should look like
– Heads should come up 50% of the time
• Experimental probability describes what
results actually look like
– Heads might come up more or less often
 Law of Large Numbers
• The average of the results obtained
from a large number of trials should be
close to the expected value, and will
tend to become closer as more trials are
performed.
– A trial of 1,000,000 coin flips should show
heads coming up closer to 50% of the time
than a trial of 100 coin flips.
 Fair Games
• 3 fair disks (50/50 probability for each side)
2 are yellow on both sides
1 is yellow on one side, red on the other
• One team gets 1 point if we flip the disks
and they come up all yellow
• The other team gets 2 points if they are not
all yellow.
• Which team would you like to join?
 Compound Probability
• What is the probability of flipping 3 heads
in a row on a fair coin?
 Example – Tree Diagram
• What is the probability of flipping 3 heads
in a row on a fair coin?
 Example
• The tree diagram shows us all the possible
outcomes for flipping a coin three times.
We can then count the outcomes we want
and calculate the probability.
– In this case the solution is 1/8
 Algebraic Method
• To calculate compound probabilities, we
MULTIPLY the individual probabilities.
• In this case ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/8
 Example
• Assuming the chance of having a boy or a
girls baby is 50/50, what is the probability
of having 5 girls in a row?
 Example
• Assuming the chance of having a boy or a
girls baby is 50/50, what is the probability
of having 5 girls in a row?
• ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ x ½ = 1/32
 More Complex Example
• This method also works when the
probabilities are NOT 50/50.
• For example, what is the probability of
rolling a fair, six-sided die and getting a five,
twice in a row?
 More Complex Example
• This method also works when the
probabilities are NOT 50/50.
• For example, what is the probability of
rolling a fair, six-sided die and getting a five,
twice in a row?
• 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36
 Another Example
• The process works even when the
probabilities are different.
• A basketball team needs to win its last
three games to make the playoffs. The
coach thinks the probabilities of them
winning each game are: 70%, 80%, 30%.
What is the probability they make the
playoffs?
 Another Example
• A basketball team needs to win its last
three games to make the playoffs. The
coach thinks the probabilities of them
winning each game are: 70%, 80%, 30%.
What is the probability they make the
playoffs?
• 0.7 x 0.8 x 0.3 = 0.168 or 16.8%
 Probability Notation
• If we have a six-sided die, the probability of
rolling a 3 would be written as: P(3)
• The probability of choosing a red M&M
from a bag would be: P(red)
• ‘P’ stands for Probability
 Samples & Predictions
• Population is the entire group of people or
things being examined.
• Sample is a subset of the population drawn
to learn about the population.
 What’s in the bag?
• 30 colored chips are in the bag
• We will take a sample of 6 chips
• Based on our sample, how many of each
color are in the bag?
 What’s in the bag?
• 30 colored chips are in the bag
• We will take a sample of 6 chips
• Based on our sample, how many of each
color are in the bag?
• Now we take a 2nd sample of 6 chips?
• Now how many of each color are in the bag?