Zomato Equity Research Report
Zomato Equity Research Report
4 August 2023
1QFY24 Results Update | Sector: Internet
Zomato
Estimate change CMP: INR86 TP: INR110 (+28%) Buy
TP change
Benefit of industry consolidation playing out
Rating change
Revenue guidance suggests good visibility; reiterate BUY
Zomato delivered an excellent 1QFY24 performance, as it turned profitable
and reported strong revenues of INR24.1b (up 17.5% QoQ), much ahead of
our estimates of 9.9% QoQ growth and a PAT loss. Revenue growth was led
by the food delivery business (up 17% QoQ). While Blinkit was muted (+5%
QoQ) due to disruptions in April-May, it should reverse in 2Q (20% QoQ
growth guidance). The management has guided for strong 40%/60%+
growth for Zomato (consol)/Blinkit over the next few years, which surprised
us on the upside.
Zomato’s 1QFY24 Adj. EBITDA margin at 2.2% was significantly ahead of our
estimate (-3.1%) on account of a higher take rate and lower operating costs.
This helped the company brake-even on PAT (INR20m), ahead of its 4QFY24
guidance. The management expects the company to sustain profitability as it
Bloomberg ZOMATO IN moves toward food delivery adj EBITDA margin of 4-5% of GOV eventually,
Equity Shares (m) 8631 along with accelerated break-even in Blinkit over the next four quarters.
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 739.7 / 8.9 We see the strong all-round performance from Zomato as an indicator of an
52-Week Range (INR) 88 / 44 accommodative competitive environment in both food delivery and quick
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 14/68/44 commerce verticals. Moreover, the sharp 80bp QoQ increase in take rate in
12M Avg Val (INR M) 5754 food delivery highlights its success in cross-selling ads to restaurants, which
is a more sustainable revenue stream rather than depending on increase in
Financials & Valuations (INR b) take rate. We expect Zomato to deliver 25%/107% revenue CAGR in food
Y/E MARCH FY23 FY24E FY25E delivery/quick commerce verticals over FY23-25, helping it grow its consol
GOV 263.5 317.1 397.6
adj revenue by 43% over the same period.
Net Sales 70.8 109.9 157.7
Change (%) 68.9 55.2 43.5
Strong revenue growth should drive significant margin leverage, given the
EBITA -12.1 0.0 7.5 fact that competitive pressure in quick commerce has eased considerably
EBITA margin (%) -17.1 0.0 4.8 over the last few months due to a funding crunch for smaller peers. We now
Adj. PAT -9.7 1.3 8.3 estimate Zomato to turn positive on reported EBITDA by 4QFY24 and deliver
PAT margin (%) -13.7 1.2 5.3 c5% EBITDA margin in FY25 (vs. our earlier estimate of break-even in FY25).
RoE (%) -5.40 0.65 4.15
As a result, Zomato should report PAT of INR1.3/INR8.3b in FY24/FY25.
RoCE (%) -8.57 -3.47 0.66
We remain positive on the long-term growth opportunity for Zomato and do
EPS -1.19 0.15 0.97
not expect competition to intensify further despite the entry of ONDC in the
Shareholding pattern (%) space. Our DCF-based valuation of INR110 suggests a 27% upside from the
As On Jun-23 Mar-23 Jun-22 current price. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock.
Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0
DII 31.0 31.0 2.8 Strong revenue beat and guidance; achieves breakeven ahead of
FII 35.4 33.8 12.7 guidance
Others 33.6 35.2 84.6 Zomato reported 1QFY24 net revenue of INR24.1b (+17.5% QoQ), a strong
FII Includes depository receipts beat to our estimate of INR22.6b (+9.9% QoQ). Excluding Blinkit, net
revenue grew 20% QoQ /44% YoY.
Zomato turned positive on PAT level ahead of its guidance of 4QFY24.
EBITDA loss narrowed sharply to INR480m (-2% EBITDA margin vs. -11% in
4Q), ahead of our estimate of EBITDA loss of INR1.8b, aided by operating
leverage.
Food delivery revenue (excluding delivery charges) grew 17% QoQ/28% YoY,
much ahead of estimate of 6.9% QoQ growth on strong demand recovery,
seasonality and Gold contribution.
Hyperpure revenue grew 29% QoQ to INR6.2b (25.5% of revenue) despite lower
restaurant count due to the introduction of minimum order value requirements.
Blinkit 1Q GOV was up only 5% QoQ due to the impact of store closure, strikes
and weather impact. The company has guided for 20% QoQ GOV growth in 2Q.
PAT came in at INR20m (est. INR1.6b loss) vs. INR1.9bn in 4QFY23. Net cash
stood at INR116b (flat QoQ).
Key highlights from the management commentary
The management is confident of achieving 40%+ organic growth over the next
couple of years, assuming that the demand slowdown is over now for the
company. Most of this growth will be driven by an uptick in the number of users.
The management is confident of achieving 4-5% EBITDA margin (% of GOV) over
the next few quarters in the food delivery business.
For Blinkit, margin levers for break-even over the next four quarters include
wallet share gains and strong operating leverage.
Valuation and view
The food delivery business is still in a nascent stage in India with a long runway
for growth. With a dominant market share and strong growth in the food
delivery business and Hyperpure, we expect Zomato to report a strong 43% adj.
revenue CAGR over FY23-25.
We now estimate Zomato to turn positive on reported EBITDA by 4QFY24, and
deliver c5% EBITDA margin in FY25, which should further drive profitability.
We value the business using a DCF methodology, assuming 4% terminal growth
rate and 12.5% cost of capital. We maintain our BUY rating with a TP of INR110,
implying 27% potential upside.
Consolidated quarterly performance (INR m)
Y/E march FY23 FY24 FY23 FY24E Estimate Var.
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE (%/bp)
Revenue (net of delivery) 14,139 16,613 19,482 20,560 24,160 25,966 29,208 30,566 70,794 1,09,900 22,587 7.0
YoY Change (%) 67.4 62.2 75.2 69.7 70.9 56.3 49.9 48.7 68.9 55.2 59.8 1110bp
Inventory of traded goods 2,538 3,123 3,900 4,391 5,620 6,102 6,718 7,041 13,952 25,481 4,743
Employee Expenses 3,489 3,813 3,950 3,398 3,380 3,895 4,206 4,275 14,650 15,756 3,840
Delivery expenses 5,724 5,903 6,549 7,193 8,100 8,783 9,654 9,612 25,369 36,149 7,820
Gross Profit 2,388 3,774 5,083 5,578 7,060 7,186 8,630 9,638 16,823 32,514 6,184 14.2
Margins (%) 16.9 22.7 26.1 27.1 29.2 27.7 29.5 31.5 23.8 29.6 27 180bp
Advertisement and sales promotion 2,776 2,997 3,479 3,022 3,140 3,116 3,797 3,684 12,274 13,737 3,275
Others 2,685 3,891 5,266 4,810 4,400 4,414 4,907 5,072 16,652 18,793 4,743 -7.2
EBITDA -3,073 -3,114 -3,662 -2,254 -480 -344 -74 881 -12,103 -17 -1,835 NA
Margins (%) -21.7 -18.7 -18.8 -11.0 -2.0 -1.3 -0.3 2.9 -17.1 0.0 -8.1 610bp
Depreciation 416 1,067 1,548 1,338 1,300 1,324 1,314 1,337 4,369 5,275 1,355
Interest 49 119 161 158 180 180 180 180 487 720 158
Other Income 1,678 1,695 1,734 1,705 1,810 1,720 1,720 1,720 6,812 6,969 1,705
PBT before EO expense -1,860 -2,605 -3,637 -2,045 -150 -129 152 1,084 -10,147 957 -1,643 NA
Extra-Ord expense 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
PBT -1,860 -2,605 -3,637 -2,044 -150 -129 152 1,084 -10,146 957 -1,643 NA
Tax 0 -97 -171 -168 -170 -142 0 0 -436 -312 0
Rate (%) 0.0 3.7 4.7 8.2 113.3 110.0 NA 0.0 4.3 NA 0.0
MI & Profit/Loss of Asso. Cos. -3 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 3 0 6
Reported PAT -1,857 -2,508 -3,466 -1,882 20 13 152 1,084 -9,713 1,269 -1,649 NA
Adj PAT -1,857 -2,508 -3,466 -1,883 20 13 152 1,084 -9,714 1,269 -1,649 NA
YoY Change (%) -45.4 -42.3 -8.5 -46.5 -101.1 -100.5 -104.4 -157.6 -35.5 -113.1 -11.2 NA
Margins (%) -13.1 -15.1 -17.8 -9.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.5 -13.7 1.2 -7.3 NA
22 May 2023 2
Zomato
Story in charts
Overall Business
Exhibit 1: Zomato saw strong sequential growth… Exhibit 2: …and turned profitable
21.3%
0.0
17.5%
17.5%
-0.6
17.3%
16.7%
0.1%
-5.7%
-9.2%
-13.1%
-15.1%
9.0%
-17.8%
8.6%
5.5%
-29.7%
-41.9%
-42.2%
8.4 10.2 11.1 12.1 14.1 16.6 19.5 20.6 24.2
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Food Delivery
Exhibit 3: GOV saw strong jump and… Exhibit 4: …take rate improved 80bp QoQ…
37.0% 18.7%
Food Delivery GOV (INR'b) Growth QoQ Food Delivery take rate
17.9%
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Exhibit 5: …leading to 17% sequential growth Exhibit 6: Contribution margin improved 60bp sequentially
Food Delivery revenue (Net; INR'b) Growth QoQ Food delivery contribution margin 6.4%
36.7% 5.8%
5.1%
4.5%
19.6% 17.0%
11.9%
7.7% 5.8% 2.8% 2.8%
4.3%
1.3% 1.9%
1.7%
7.1 8.5 8.9 9.6 10.7 11.4 11.5 11.7 13.7 1.2% 1.1%
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
22 May 2023 3
Zomato
Blinkit
Exhibit 7: GOV saw weak sequential growth at 5%… Exhibit 8: …while take rate improved 20bp sequentially…
17.5 15.9%
14.8
14.0%
11.7
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Exhibit 9: …leading to 6% sequential revenue growth Exhibit 10: Contribution margin improved 200bp QoQ
Blinkit contribution margin
Blinkit Revenue (INR'b)
3.8 -2.7% -0.7%
3.6 -4.5%
-7.3%
3.0
2.4
-17.3%
1.6
1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
22 May 2023 4
Zomato
Exhibit 11: Expect good growth in MTU… Exhibit 12: …and order frequency
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Exhibit 13: AOV to remain flat Exhibit 14: Strong GOV growth…
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Exhibit 15: …and increase in take rate… Exhibit 16: …to drive 49% revenue CAGR over FY23-25
Revenue (INR'b) Growth (%)
98.4 110.3
19.1
18.8 68.9
55.2 43.5
(23.5)
17.3 17.2
16.0
15.7 26.0 19.9 41.9 70.8 109.9 157.7
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
22 May 2023 5
Zomato
Margins
The management is confident of achieving 4-5% EBITDA margin (% of GOV) over
the next few quarters in the food delivery business.
The decrease in employee expenses was on account of right sizing done in
Dec’22. 1QFY24 saw full quarter benefit from the same, as 4QFY23 had some
severance payments. The wage hikes will happen in Jul’23 so its impact will
reflect in 2QFY24.
Blinkit
The movement in AOV is seasonal in nature and fluctuates depending on the
business mix as it provides a wide range of products. Higher ad sales during the
quarter also helped to inch up AOV. 25% of AOV increase was on account of
supply constraints faced by Blinkit during the quarter.
Due to the disruptions in Delhi, few stores were shut for two days and saw low
delivery partner traffic, which impacted operations in April-May.
Starting Apr’23, Blinkit evened out compensation to delivery partners. This did
not have much impact on the delivery cost. The delivery cost is expected to
remain in similar lines going forward.
Blinkit continues to widen its product offering, which should boost revenue and
margins.
Along with store additions in new areas, the management is also adding stores
in locality where there is very high volume.
Margin levers for break-even over the next four quarters include wallet share
gains and strong operating leverage.
22 May 2023 6
Zomato
22 May 2023 7
Zomato
22 May 2023 8
Zomato
Valuation (x)
P/E NA NA NA NA NA NA
Cash P/E NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV/EBITDA NA NA NA NA NA NA
EV/Sales 14.4 23.1 14.9 9.8 6.6 4.5
Price/Book Value 52.9 5.7 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.6
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing
22 May 2023 9
Zomato
NOTES
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Zomato
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Zomato
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