GRE - Argument

Argument 讲义
白纯
Argument 讲义 | Jessie
目录
1. GRE 写作介绍
2. Argument 介绍&写作框架
3. Argument 逻辑错误剖析
4. Argument 范文分析
5. Argument 高频题目
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一. GRE 写作介绍
1. 考试内容
Issue
As people rely more and more on technology to solve problems, the ability of humans to think for
themselves will surely deteriorate.
Discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the statement and explain your reasoning for the
position you take. In developing and supporting your position, you should consider ways in which the
statement might or might not hold true and explain how these considerations shape your position.
Argument
In surveys Mason City residents rank water sports (swimming, boating, and fishing) among their
favorite recreational activities. The Mason River flowing through the city is rarely used for these
pursuits, however, and the city park department devotes little of its budget to maintaining riverside
recreational facilities. For years there have been complaints from residents about the quality of the
river’s water and the river’s smell. In response, the state has recently announced plans to clean up
Mason River. Use of the river for water sports is, therefore, sure to increase. The city government
should for that reason devote more money in this year’s budget to riverside recreational facilities.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be
sure to explain how the argument depends on the assumptions and what the implications are if the
assumptions prove unwarranted.
2. 时间，分数，字数
30min
0-6
450
3. 评分
机评：句子的长度，连接词的个数，单词的长度，简单的语法错误；
雷同问题—E-rater（例子雷同，语句雷同）
人评：观点和思想是否明确，句子结构是否完整优美
机器+人评出的分数的平均分就是 Issue 和 argument 的分数
二. Argument 介绍和写作结构
Argument 即为驳论文，题干中给了一段话，这段话中包含一些推论或论据方面的漏洞，需
要考生找出这些逻辑错误，并进行攻击。
ETS 公布了 Argument 的题库,考试时由计算机从题库中随机抽出一道题进行考试,考试时长
30min
例 1：
去年，经过有关部门调查，A 老师说话语速过快，这严重影响了学生的学习成绩。所以，
为了提高学生的综合素质，建议 B 老师上课的时候要放慢语速。
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例 2：
An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce
absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish
consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of
colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds represent the
most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of
Ichthaid—a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil—as a good way to prevent colds and
lower absenteeism."
1. 满分标准
In addressing the specific task directions, a 6 response presents a cogent, well-articulated examination
of the argument and conveys meaning skillfully.
a. clearly identifies aspects of the argument relevant to the assigned task and
examines them insightfully
b. develops ideas cogently, organizes them logically, and connects them with clear
transitions
c. provides compelling and thorough support for its main points
d. conveys ideas fluently and precisely, using effective vocabulary and sentence variety
e. demonstrates superior facility with the conventions of standard written English (i.e., grammar, usage,
and mechanics) but may have minor errors
2. 文章结构
argument 一般是 5 段组成
第 1 段：开头
第 2-4 段：正文段
第 5 段：结尾段
1）argument 分析步骤
找出证据和结论
找到推理过程中的逻辑错误
筛选逻辑错误写作
Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products, is opening its
next franchise in the town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: Nature's
Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residents lead healthy lives, and clearly
Plainsville is such an area. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise
clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club has more members than ever, and the weight
training and aerobics classes are always full. Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent a new
generation of potential customers: these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-
life program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
2）开头段-CEF
(1) 复述原论述的结论或者主张
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(2) 归纳原论述的假设、证据
(3) 指出论据存在逻辑错误，不足以支持作者结论
开头：
In this memo the vice president of Nature's Way (NW), a chain of stores selling health food and
health-related products, recommends opening a store in Plamesville. To support this
recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville: (1) sales of
exercise shoes and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) the local health club is more popular than
ever; and (3) the city's schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness program. Close
scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the
recommendation.
其他模板：
In this argument, the speaker concludes that… To support this conclusion, the speaker cites the
evidence that … However, the argument is rife with several doubtful assumptions and therefore is
unpersuasive as it stands.
In this argument, the arguer claims that... To substantiate the conclusion, the arguer cites the
examples of... This line of reasoning, however, is flawed in several aspects.
3) 正文段
每段攻击一个主要的逻辑错误
正文段分段和筛选
时态
展开
First, strong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would
be interested in NW's products, or that these residents are interested in exercising. Perhaps
exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared to other types
of clothing. For that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to increasing sales to
tourists. In short, without making out other possible reasons for the strong sales the vice president
cannot convince me on the basis of them that Plainesville residents are exercising regularly, let
alone that they would be interested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells.
Secondly, even if exercise is more popular among Plainesville residents than ever before, the vice
president assumes further that people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health
food and health-related products. Yet the memo contains no evidence to support this assumption.
Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that aside from exercising Plainesville residents have
little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise they
believe they are sufficiently fit and healthy and do not need a healthy diet.
Thirdly, the popularity of the local health club is little indication that NW will earn a profit from a
store in Plainesville. Perhaps club members live in an area of Plamesville nowhere near feasible
sites for a NW store. Or perhaps the club's primary appeal is as a singles meeting place, and that
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members actually have little interest in a healthy lifestyle. Besides, even if the club's members
would patronize a NW store these members might be insufficient in number to ensure a profit for
the store, especially considering that this health club is the only one in Plainesville.
Fourth, the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesville's school children
accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. Many years must pass before these
children will be old enough to make buying decisions when it comes to food and health-related
products. Their habits and interests might change radically over time. Besides, mandatory
participation is no indication of genuine interest in health or fitness. Moreover, when these
children grow older it is entirely possible that they will favor an unhealthy lifestyle--as a reaction
to the healthful habits imposed upon them now.
Finally, even assuming that Plamesville residents are strongly interested in eating health foods and
health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions:(1) that this
interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and (2) that Plainesville residents will prefer NW
over other merchants that sell similar products. Until the vice president substantiates both
assumptions, I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesville would be profitable.
4）结尾段
总结全文+建议
In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as
it stands. To bolster the recommendation the vice president must provide dear evidence--perhaps
by way of a local survey or study--that Plainesville residents who buy and wear exercise apparel,
and especially the health club's members, do in fact exercise regularly, and that these exercisers
are likely to buy health foods and health related products at a NW store. To better assess the
recommendation, I would need to know why Plainesville's health club is unpopular, and why
Plainesville does not contain more health clubs. I would also need to know what competition NW
might face in Plainesville.
模板：
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not
lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would
have to provide more evidence concerning...
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would
have to demonstrate that... Additionally, the arguer must provide evidence to rule out all the
above-mentioned possibilities that might weaken the argument.
三. Argument 逻辑错误
调查类
论据含糊
充分条件类
必要条件类
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因果类
范围变化类
偷换概念类
时间外推类
错误类比
利润问题
非此即彼类
1. 调查类逻辑错误
标志词： survey, study
攻击方向：调查的谁，调查了多少人，谁调查的，怎么调查的，问了什么问题，数据问题
语言模板:
Citing surveys of XXX ， the speaker assumes that XXX(The speaker cites a survey to indicate
that…). However, the survey cited by the speaker is not reliable and valid due to lack of certain
evidence. For example, firstly the mere sample of… might be too limited to constitute convincing
evidence because it might not be representative of the whole group. Moreover, the survey might
just ask about …Without more information of the survey’s reliability, the speaker cannot use the
survey to strongly back the argument.
例：
In surveys Mason City residents rank water sports (swimming, boating, and fishing) among their
river's water and the river's smell. In response, the state has recently announced plans to clean up
Mason River. Use of the river for water sports is, therefore, sure to increase. The city government
should for that reason devote more money in this year's budget to riverside recreational facilities.
2.论据含糊
标志词：promise, plan
攻击方向：计划有实施障碍
模板语言：The author believes that planning to do … is practical. However, many factors make
the plan impossible to be realized. For example, some people may be unwilling to follow the plan,
because ... Besides, the government may also not allow the company to do so. Considering all
possible reasons, the plan mentioned by the author cannot be accomplished.
例：
Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire, because it has spectacular
natural beauty and a consistent climate. Another advantage is that housing costs in Clearview have
fallen significantly during the past year, and taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns.
Moreover, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and
public services. And best of all, retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they
grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average.
3. 充分条件
标志词：should
攻击方向：题目中的条件不充分，结论的发生还依赖于其他的因素
模板语言：
The speaker assumes that if we have A ， then B will be achieved 【 A is sufficient enough to
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achieve B 】. However common sense tells me that there are a host of other alternative factors
affecting B. For example, it is likely that…it is even possible that… Without ruling out these and
those other causes, the speaker cannot conclude that only by A can achieve B.
例：
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that
manufactures men's clothing.
Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool
fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric
supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we
discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product,
we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall
increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian's alpaca overcoats will be more profitable
than ever before.
4. 必要条件
标志词：绝对化词汇，best, only, unless, must
攻击方向：题目中的条件不唯一，仍有其他的方式来产生结论
模板语言：The argument depends on the assumption that no alternative means can achieve the
desirable result. However, no evidence is provided to substantiate this crucial assumption, many
other effective methods could also be adopted. For example… Therefore the speaker’s assumption
is totally unconvincing.
The following appeared in a memo from the owner of a chain of cheese stores located throughout
the United States.
For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and
imported cheeses. Last year, however, all of the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were
domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World
magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our
company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our
stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate
primarily on domestic cheeses.
5. 因果类
1）无因果类错误
标志词：because，connection， correlation， as a consequence，consequently…
攻击方向：找他因
模板语言：The speaker assumes that A is responsible for B(The speaker assumes that there is a
causal relationship between A and B) . However, B might be the result of many other factors. For
example, B might be attributable to C. It is equally possible that D might also contribute to B.
Without ruling out these possibilities, it is too rash to assume that A cause B.
例：
The following is part of a memorandum from the president of Humana University.
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"Last year the number of students who enrolled in online degree programs offered by nearby
Omni University increased by 50 percent. During the same year, Omni showed a significant
decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because
instruction in the online programs takes place via the Internet. In contrast, over the past three
years, enrollment at Humana University has failed to grow, and the cost of maintaining buildings
has increased along with our budget deficit. To address these problems, Humana University will
begin immediately to create and actively promote online degree programs like those at Omni. We
predict that instituting these online degree programs will help Humana both increase its total
enrollment and solve its budget problems."
2) 时序因果错误
标志词：since then, since that time,
模板语言：Basing on the fact that A occurred before B, the speaker assumes that A is responsible
for B. However, the sequence of the two events cannot sufficiently prove that A cause B. Indeed,
B might the result of many other factors, such as… Without explaining and making out such
possibilities, the speaker cannot establish a causal relationship between A and B.
例：
Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to
evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have
begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have
risen by 30 percent. Potential employers, looking at this dramatic rise in grades, believe that
grades at Omega are inflated and do not accurately reflect student achievement; as a result, Omega
graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha
University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should terminate
student evaluation of professors.
3) 同时因果错误
标志词：at the same time, simultaneously
模板语言：The author may confuse concurrence with causality. It is true that A and B occur at
the same time, but the mere fact is not sufficient enough to establish the causal relationship
between A and B, for there might be a lot of other possible explanations. For example…The
arguer's reasoning is definitely flawed unless the arguer can convince me that these possible
scenarios are unlikely.
The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.

Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and
less time to weather and local news. During this time period, most of the complaints received from
viewers were concerned with our station's coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local
businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have just canceled their
advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to the program and to
avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should restore the time devoted to weather and
local news to its former level.
6. 范围变化类
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1）整体-个体
标志词：allover, overall, nationwide, statewide
攻击方向：整体-个体差异性
模板语言： One problem with the argument is that it assumes that the nationwide statistics
about ...apply equally to ... Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons.
Perhaps ..; or perhaps ... Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably
conclude that ...
例：
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Parkville Daily newspaper.
Throughout the country last year, as more and more children below the age of nine participated in
youth-league sports, over 40,000 of these young players suffered injuries. When interviewed for a
recent study, youth-league soccer players in several major cities also reported psychological
pressure exerted by coaches and parents to win games. Furthermore, education experts say that
long practice sessions for these sports take away time that could be used for academic activities.
Since the disadvantages outweigh any advantages, we in Parkville should discontinue organized
athletic competition for children under nine.
2）平均类
标志词：average
攻击方向：平均数不能体现个体的情况
模板语言： One problem with the argument is that it assumes that the average statistics
about ...apply equally to ... Yet this might not be the case, for a variety of possible reasons.
Perhaps ..; or perhaps ... Without ruling out such possibilities, the author cannot justifiably
conclude that ...
例：
To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a number of new
dormitories. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, will double over
the next 50 years, thus making existing dormitory space inadequate. Moreover, the average rent
for an apartment in our town has risen in recent years. Consequently, students will find it
increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, attractive new dormitories would
make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham.
7. 偷换概念
标志词：A=B
攻击方向：找差异（主客观）或者下定义
模板语言：A threshold problem involves the content of A. The arguer regards A as the same as B.
However, from many aspects, A and B are totally different, First of all, ....... Besides, .... ... ln
short, without ruling out those mentioned discrepancies, it is impossible to conclude A is equal to
B.
A threshold problem involves the definition of A. The speaker fails to define this critical term. lf A
is defined as…, then B, is irrelevant to A. In short, without a dear definition of A, it is impossible
to assess the strength of the argument.
例：
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An ancient, traditional remedy for insomnia—the scent of lavender flowers—has now been
proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three
weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored
electronically. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication.
They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. At the beginning of the second week, the volunteers
discontinued their sleeping medication. During that week, they slept less soundly than the
previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and
more soundly than in the previous two weeks. Therefore, the study proves that lavender cures
insomnia within a short period of time.
8. 时间外推类
标志词：时间词汇，continue, remain, trend
攻击方向：随着时间的变化，主客观会变
模板语言： The author claims that . 将来 .., because.. 过去 . This assumption is unwarranted
because things rarely remain the same in the future. There are likely all kinds of difference
between .过去.. and..将来. For example .过去.. ; however, .现在.. . Any of these scenarios, if true,
would serve to undermine the claim that…
Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulty obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool
fabric, we discontinued production of our popular alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric
supplier, we should resume production. Given the outcry from our customers when we
discontinued this product and the fact that none of our competitors offers a comparable product,
we can expect pent-up consumer demand for our alpaca coats. Due to this demand and the overall
increase in clothing prices, we can predict that Sartorian’s alpaca overcoats will be more profitable
than ever before.
9. 错误类比
标志词：A 可以,B 也可以
攻击：找差异
模板语言：The author commits a false analogy between A and B, and the author assumes that all
relevant circumstances involving/considering/regarding XX are essentially the same. However,
this assumption is open to doubt. For example …. ln short, without accounting for such possible
differences between A and B, the arguer cannot prove that B will reap the similar benefits from the
proposed methods.
Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must
make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater
in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush
carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85
percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from
going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its
share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex.
10. 利润问题
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标志词：profit, profitable
攻击方向：P=R-C
攻击语言： The author’s prediction that doing … will help the company earn more profit is
unwarranted. Profit is a factor relating to not only revenue, but also cost. lt is entirely possible that
the cost of A or other costs associated with B, C will offset, even outweigh the revenue. Besides, a
myriad of other unexpected occurrences, such as unfavorable economic depression, might
prevent… from being as profitable as the argument predicts.
The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment building to
its manager.
One month ago, all the showerheads on the first five floors of Sunnyside Towers were modified to
restrict the water flow to approximately one-third of its original flow. Although actual readings of
water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result
in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water
each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers
have been reported since the adjustment. Clearly, restricting water flow throughout all the twenty
floors of Sunnyside Towers will increase our profits further.
11. 非此即彼
标志词：A or B 导致了 C,either…to
攻击方向：列举 DEF 导致了 C；或者 A 和 B 共同作用
模板语言：Even assuming A is not the reason for C, the author falsely assumes that C must be
attributable to B. This “either…or argument is fallacious in that it ignores other possible cause of
C, perhaps D, or perhaps E
The editorial seems to make two irreconcilable claims. One is… the other is .. however, this
assumption presents a false dilemma, since A B are not necessarily mutually exclusive
alternatives.
The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the
southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that
98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a
number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead.
Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term
‘butter’ to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and
to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its
restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.
四. 题目要求和范文分析
1. 题目要求
找假设（assumption）
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument.
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Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions, and what the implications are
for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
找证据（evidence）
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument
and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
提问题（question）
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to
decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure
to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain
how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the advice.
decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how
the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to
explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to
decide whether the conclusion and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to
explain how the answers to the questions would help to evaluate the conclusion.
找他因（alternative explanation）
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the
proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts
presented in the argument.
2. 范文分析
In surveys Mason City residents rank water sports (swimming, boating and fishing) among their
river's water and the river's smell. In response, the state has recently announced plans to clean up
Mason River. Use of the river for water sports is therefore sure to increase. The city government
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should for that reason devote more money in this year's budget to riverside recreational facilities.
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument.
Be sure to explain how the argument depends on the assumptions and what the implications are if
the assumptions prove unwarranted.
While it may be true that the Mason City government ought to devote more money to riverside
recreational facilities, this author's argument does not make a cogent case for increased resources
based on river use. It is easy to understand why city residents would want a cleaner river, but this
argument is rife with holes and assumptions, and thus, not strong enough to lead to increased
funding.
Citing surveys of city residents, the author reports city resident's love of water sports. It is not
clear, however, the scope and validity of that survey. For example, the survey could have asked
residents if they prefer using the river for water sports or would like to see a hydroelectric dam
built, which may have swayed residents toward river sports. The sample may not have been
representative of city residents, asking only those residents who live upon the river. The survey
may have been 10 pages long, with 2 questions dedicated to river sports. We just do not know.
Unless the survey is fully representative, valid, and reliable, it cannot be used to effectively back
the author's argument.
Additionally, the author implies that residents do not use the river for swimming, boating, and
fishing, despite their professed interest, because the water is polluted and smelly. While a polluted,
smelly river would likely cut down on river sports, a concrete connection between the resident's
lack of river use and the river's current state is not effectively made. Though there have been
complaints, we do not know if there have been numerous complaints from a wide range of people,
or perhaps from one or two individuals who made numerous complaints. To strengthen his/her
argument, the author would benefit from implementing a normed survey asking a wide range of
residents why they do not currently use the river.
Building upon the implication that residents do not use the river due to the quality of the river's
water and the smell, the author suggests that a river clean up will result in increased river usage. If
the river's water quality and smell result from problems which can be cleaned, this may be true.
For example, if the decreased water quality and aroma is caused by pollution by factories along
the river, this conceivably could be remedied. But if the quality and aroma results from the natural
mineral deposits in the water or surrounding rock, this may not be true. There are some bodies of
water which emit a strong smell of sulphur due to the geography of the area. This is not something
likely to be afffected by a clean-up. Consequently, a river clean up may have no impact upon river
usage. Regardless of whether the river's quality is able to be improved or not, the author does not
effectively show a connection between water quality and river usage.
A clean, beautiful, safe river often adds to a city's property values, leads to increased tourism and
revenue from those who come to take advantage of the river, and a better overall quality of life for
13
residents. For these reasons, city government may decide to invest in improving riverside
recreational facilities. However, this author's argument is not likely significantly to persuade the
city government to allocate increased funding.
2. The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of
developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the
nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would
have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people
attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in
Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every
weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to
$1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."
In this application, the developers request that a jazz music club be built in Monroe. To support
their conclusion, they point out that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away. Moreover, they use a
series of evidence to demonstrate the prevalence of jazz music in Monroe. In addition, a
nationwide study is cited to prove that there are a great number of typical fans in Monroe who are
inclined to spend money on jazz entertainment. Although the new jazz club may finally turn out to
be lucrative, close scrutiny reveals that the conclusion lacks critical support and therefore we need
more evidence to help evaluate the argument.
First of all, we need evidence to verify that a new jazz club in Monroe will have no difficulty
attracting all of the local customers. While the author shows that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles
away, no evidence serves to rule out the possibility that customers will continue to go out of town
despite the new jazz club in Monroe. Thus, additional evidence gains great significance to
determine whether the out-of-town jazz club has other advantages that outweigh the distance
disadvantage, for example, a pleasant environment, comfortable service, and most importantly,
appealing jazz music. If new evidence shows that the out-of-town jazz club is thus equipped, then
it is reasonably safe to claim that people in Monroe will still choose to go there rather than the
local jazz club, and therefore the author’s recommendation is weakened. However, if new
evidence discloses an opposite situation, then the proposal in the argument is lent great support to.
In addition, we need more evidence to ascertain whether jazz music is extremely popular in
Monroe. First, although the number of people attended Monroe’s annual jazz festival last summer
is astonishing at first glance, exact local attendance figures will lend considerable support to the
evaluation of the aforementioned statement. If attendance was dominated by non-locals, then the
popularity of jazz in Monroe is in great doubt and the developers’ conclusion is thereby rendered
unconvincing. Second, we need to know the reason why the jazz musicians chose to live in
Monroe instead of elsewhere, and whether their residence benefits the vogue of local jazz music.
14
If it turns out that they reside in Monroe simply for the agreeable environment or attractive
housing prices, or that they chose Monroe as an ideal place to enjoy life after retirement, which
may lead to their constant alienation from jazz, then we are unconvinced of the popularity of the
local jazz music. Third, the evaluation of the statement concerning the prevalence of jazz music in
Monroe also entails evidence about the competence of ‘Jazz Nightly’ not only during the
weeknights, but also on weekends. If the developers can prove that this radio program has
absolute popularity regardless of the time period and its opponents, then we are disposed to
believe that jazz is popular in Monroe.
Finally, despite the presence of all the previous evidence, an accurate evaluation of the
developers’ request requires additional information. Specific evidence is needed to show whether
the result of the nationwide study also applies to the local situation in Monroe; that is to say,
whether there exist a satisfactory number of typical fans in Monroe who are willing to spend
money exclusively on jazz music clubs. If the answer is positive, then the reasoning of the
argument is strengthened; however, if people give priority to and spend their money primarily on
jazz CDs, concerts or other entertainments than they do to jazz clubs, we are reluctant to believe
that the new jazz club will be tremendously profitable.
To sum up, the evidence cited by the developers does not provide enough conclusive information
to make their request convincing. As a result, we need additional evidence to better evaluate the
argument.
3. The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company.

During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job
accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. Panoply produces products very similar to
those produced at our factory, but its work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts say that
fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-
job accidents. Panoply’ s superior safety record can therefore be attributed to its shorter work
shifts, which allow its employees to get adequate amounts of rest.
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the
proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts
presented in the argument.
In the memo, the vice president describes the coincidence between a higher rate of on-the-job
accidents at his/her factory and a shorter work shift at nearby Panoply Industries. The vice
president further ascribes the lower number of accidents to the shorter work time. While this might
be the case, we cannot easily ignore other explanations which could rival the proposed one
endorsed by the vice president.
To begin with, while we could readily attribute the lower rate of on the-job accidents at Panoply
Industries to a higher level of safety, this is not the only explanation. Since we do not know the
total number of workers at Panoply, we cannot rule out the possibility that a smaller number of
employees at Panoply contribute to its comparatively lower rate of accidents. In addition, we
should be cautious of the word “report”, which is highly subjective and relies heavily on the kinds
15
of accidents reported. Therefore, the lower rate of accidents at Panoply could have resulted from
Panoply concealing accidents or could be due to different accident reporting standards. Either of
these two explanations, once proves true, could easily compete the one proposed by the vice
president.
Even if Panoply is safer than the vice president’s factory, it is hasty to attribute this safety solely
to its shorter work shifts. Generally speaking, a safe working environment originates in a variety
of factors: well experienced employees, advanced and easily operated devices, and scrupulous
supervision, any of which could exert a positive influence upon the improvement of safety level of
working conditions at Panoply. Without further information, we cannot unhesitatingly preclude
the possibility that Panoply’s safe environment stems from any of the aforementioned factors, or a
combination of these factors. Thereby it is ill-conceived to solely credit Panoply’s safe working
conditions to shorter shifts.
Granted that no other factors contribute to the safe environment at Panoply, the causal relationship
between shorter work shifts and fewer accidents is open to doubt. In this memo, citing the experts’
words, the vice president implies that in his/her factory, it is the insufficient sleep, which derives
from longer work shifts, that leads to fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers and further
gives rise to more accidents. However, even if the experts’ words are trustworthy, it is likely that
even if the work shifts were shortened, workers at the vice president’s factory would spend the
time doing other things rather than sleeping. Consequently they will not be energetic and the high
rate of accidents will remain unchanged. Likewise, it is of equal possibility that workers at
Panoply do not spend their free time sleeping and accordingly suffer fatigue and sleep deprivation
as much as workers in the vice president’s factory do. That is to say, the larger number of
accidents in the vice president’s factory could have resulted from workers’ off-work activities. I
therefore reserve my approval of the vice president’s claim which attributes the lower rate of
accidents to shorter work shifts.
To summarize, while a shorter work shift may plausibly account for a lower rate of on-the-job
accidents, I remain open to different explanations that also help to illustrate the facts presented in
this argument. Unless the vice president offers clarification, I remain doubtful that his/her
explanation is the only possibility.
4.
The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
“Twenty years ago, Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded
from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their
own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands
that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological
parents than about other adults in the village. This research of mine proves that Dr. Field's
conclusion about Tertian village culture is invalid and thus that the observation-centered approach
to studying cultures is invalid as well. The interview-centered method that my team of graduate
students is currently using in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-
rearing traditions there and in other island cultures.”
16
It might seem logical, at first glance, to agree with the argument in pr. Karp's article that children
in Tertia actually are raised by their biological parents (and perhaps even by implication, that an
observation-centered approach to anthropological study is not as valid as an interview-centered
one). However, in order to fully evaluate this argument, we need to have a significant amount of
additional evidence. The argument could end up being much weaker than it seems, or it might
actually be quite valid. In order to make that determination, we need to know more then analyze
what we learn.
The first piece of evidence that we would need in order to evaluate Dr. Karp's claims is
information about whether or not Tertia and the surrounding island group have changed
significantly in the past 20 years. Dr. Field conducted his observational study 20 years ago, and it
is possible that Tertia has changed significantly since then. For example, if we had evidence that
in the intervening years Westerners had settled on the island and they introduced a more typical
Western-style family structure, it would certainly weaken Dr. Karp's argument. In that case, the
original study could have been accurate, and Dr. Karp's study could be correct, as well, though his
conclusion that Dr. Field's method is ineffective would be seriously weakened.
Another piece of evidence that might help us evaluate this claim involves the exact locations
where Dr. Karp's interviews took place. According to this article, Dr. Karp and his graduate
students conducted interviews of "children living in the group of island that includes Tertia." If we
were to learn that they never interviewed a single Tertian child, it would significantly weaken the
conclusion. It could turn out to be the case, for example, that children on Tertia are raised
communally, whereas children on other islands nearby are raised by their biological parents.
In order to fully evaluate this article, we would also need to learn more about the interview
questions that Dr. Karp's team used. What exactly did they ask? We don't know, nor do we know
what the children's responses actually were. What did they say about their biological parents? The
mere fact that they speak more frequently about their biological parents than they do about other
adults does not meant hat they are raised by their biological parents. It would significantly
undermine Dr. Karp's argument if it turned out that the children said things like how much they
missed their parents or how their parents had left them in a communal environment. Without
knowing WHAT the children said, it is hard to accept Dr. Karp's conclusion.
It is slightly more difficult to discuss the evidence we might need in order to evaluate the more
interesting claims in Dr. Karp's article, namely his extension of the results of his study to a
conclusion that interview-centered methods are inherently more valid than observational-centered
approaches. In order to fully evaluate this claim, in fact, we would need to look at many more
examples of interview-based and observation-based anthropological studies and we would also
need to look into different study designs. Perhaps Dr. Field did not conduct an effective
17
observational study, but other observational approaches could be effective. In order to make such
grandiose claims, Dr. Karp really needs a lot of additional evidence (ideally a meta- analysis of
hundreds of anthropological studies).
Clearly, then, we need to have additional evidence in order to get a more complete understanding
of the strengths and weaknesses of Dr. Karp's article. We need to know about Tertia and the
surrounding islands, whether or not they have changed over the past 20 years. We also need to
know about study design (Dr. Karp's and Dr. Field's). And we really need a lot more information
if we want to extend the results of a study about one island culture to all anthropological
fieldwork.
5. The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex
to its manager.
"One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex
were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. Although actual
readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will
obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must
pay for water each month. Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems
with showers have been reported since the adjustment. I predict that modifying showerheads to
restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase
our profits even more dramatically."
decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to
explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the letter, the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex predicts a dramatic profit
increase for Sunnyside Corporation. His/her prediction relies heavily on the seemingly pleasing
results from showerhead modifications in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers
complex. In those buildings, the maximum water flow has been restricted to one-third of what it
used to be. While reducing the amount of shower water might be desirable both environmentally
and financially, whether the author’s prediction is reasonable hinges on the answers to the
following questions.
The first series of questions I am going to put forward revolve around the actual consequences
brought about by modifying the maximum water flow. More specifically, I need to ask what the
exact water usage readings are before and after the adjustment. Will people take longer showers
now that the water flower is restricted? If the answer to this question is positive, then a decrease in
water usage is not safely guaranteed and therefore the writer’s final prediction is open to doubt.
On the contrary, if it turns out to be the other way around, then the prediction is strengthened
instead.
In addition, while the arguer claims that few problems with showers have been reported since the
18
adjustment, it is still a question whether one-month period of time is too short for all problems to
have emerged; have any problems or complaints been concealed or even suppressed? If the answer
to either of these two questions is yes, then the argument’s prediction is undermined; otherwise, it
is shored up.
Witnessing the seemingly positive result of the showerhead adaptation, the author further
recommends a wider application of the adaptation to all the twelve buildings in the Sunnyside
Towers complex. However, before reaching that conclusion, we need to know whether such a
generalization is hasty. The current few complaints might derive from the possibility that people
who were not satisfied with the adaptation in the first three buildings went elsewhere for shower.
Therefore, we need to ask whether it is possible that once we implement the author’s proposal and
modify all the showerheads throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex, is
the corporation going to lose the customers? If it will unfortunately suffer from a great loss of
customers, then the prediction in the argument is unreasonable; in other circumstances it is not.
Even if people accept the showerhead modifications, whether such modification surely leads to a
growth in profits remains an unanswered question. While we are informed that the corporation
pays for water each month and therefore the water fee may decline due to the showerhead
adjustments, we have no information concerning the modification expenses. Simply speaking,
how do the savings resulting from the adjustments compare to the expense of adjusting them? If
the savings are slight, then we cannot expect profits to rise and the author’s recommendation
should therefore be rejected; but if the savings are significant, then the proposal should be
encouraged.
While I sympathize with the author’s intention to reduce costs, whether we should resort to
showerhead modification in all the buildings is subject to more consideration. We especially need
to know how people react to the modifications, the adjustment expenses, and the potential savings
as a result of the modifications.
五. 高频题目
见 argument 高频题目文件
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Argument 讲义

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The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.

3. The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company.

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