CONCEPT of PROBABILITY

Dr. Ghazala Muteeb

CAMS, KFU

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 Probability Event

• Probability experiment is the one in which randomness plays a principal part

• When repeated under exactly the same conditions, does not necessarily give
the same results.
• there is, a priori, always a variety of possible outcomes.
• The probability experiment is known as a trial and their outcomes are known
as events

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 Trial & Event

Throwing of a die is a trial and

getting l (or 2 or 3, ... or 6) is an Tossing of a coin is a trial and getting
event. head (H) or tail (T) is an event.
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 Sample Space
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
• This set will systematically be denoted by the symbol S.
Example: When casting a die, the possible outcomes are the casts of 1, 2, 3, 4,
5 or 6 pips.
S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Example: Tossing of a coin: S= {Head, Tai1}

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 Exhaustive events
• The possible outcomes
• A set of events are called exhaustive events if at least one of them necessarily
occurs whenever the experiment is performed.
• Also, all these events together constitute the sample space of that experiment.

For example:
(i) In tossing of a coin there are two exhaustive events: head and tai1.
(ii) In throwing of a die, there are six exhaustive events since anyone of the 6
faces 1,2, ... ,6 may come uppermost.
(iii) In throwing of two dice, the exhaustive number of events is 62 = 36.
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Example: In a single throw with two dice, sample space is shown below.

• Each event is an exhaustive event

• Total number of exhaustive events = 36 6
 Null Event (  )
• An event that cannot happen or no chance of occurring
• Example: a man having cancer of the uterus
• Sample space of null event is empty

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 Mutually Exclusive events

• Two events that cannot happen together in the same trial

• Examples:
➢ Event A = being male and Event B = being pregnant
➢ In throwing a die all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive,
since if anyone of these faces comes, the possibility of others in the same
trail is not there
➢ Similarly in tossing a coin the events head and tail are mutually exclusive
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 Independent events
Several events are said to be independent if the happening of an event is not
affected by the supplementary knowledge concerning the occurrence of any
number of the remaining events.

For example.
(i) In tossing an unbiased coin, the event of getting the head in the first toss is
independent of getting a head in the second, third and subsequent throws.

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 Equally likely events

Outcomes of a trial are set to be equally likely if taking into consideration all
the relevant evidences, there is no reason to expect one in preference to the
others.
For example,
(i) In tossing an unbiased or uniform coin, head or tail are equally likely
events.
(ii) In throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces are equally likely to come.

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 Operations on events

• Intersection of Events- all the cases of overlap of the 2 events

• Example: If A = “face of die is odd” and
B = “number is less than 3”, then A  B = {1}

• If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then A  B = 

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Operations on events

• Union of 2 events – comprised of all outcomes consistent to either A or B or

both
• Example: If A=“face of die is odd” and B= “number is less than 3”, then ;
A∪ B = {1,2,3,5}
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 Operations on events
A’

• Complement of an event A (denoted as A’) – comprised of all outcomes that

are not compatible with A
• Note: A∪ A’ = S
• A∩ A’ = ∅

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 Probability of an Event
• Measure of the likelihood of the occurrence of an event
• If an event can occur in different mutually exclusive and equally likely ways,
the probability of its occurrence is given by:
No. of desired/favorable events
P(E) =
Total number of Exhaustive events

• If an experiment is repeated n times under identical conditions and event A

occurs nA times, then the probability that “event A occurs ” is:

• In general, 0  P(A)  1
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Example: In a single throw with two dice, what is the chance of throwing
a sum 8 ?

No. of desired/favorable events

P(E) = = 5/36
Total number of Exhaustive events
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Example: A bag contains a red ball, a blue ball and a yellow ball, all the balls being of
the same size. Maryam takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. What is the
probability that she takes out the (i) yellow ball? (ii) red ball? (iii) blue ball?

Solution : Maryam takes out a ball from the bag without looking into it. So, it is equally
likely that she takes out any one of them. Let Y be the event ‘the ball taken out is yellow’, B
be the event ‘the ball taken out is blue’, and R be the event ‘the ball taken out is red’. Now,
the number of possible outcomes = 3.

(i) The number of outcomes favorable to the event Y = 1, Hence P(Y)=1/3

Similarly; P(B)=1/3 and P(R)=1/3

Note : P(Y) + P(R) + P(B) = 1

(the sum of the probabilities of all the events of an experiment is 1)

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 Probability of the Complement of an Event
Example: Suppose we throw a dice once. (i) What is the probability of getting a
number greater than 4 ? (ii) What is the probability of getting a number less than
or equal to 4 ?

Solution : (i) Here, let E be the event ‘getting a number greater than 4’.
Total number of possible outcomes(exhaustive events) is six : 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6,
and the outcomes favorable to E are 5 and 6. Therefore,

P(E) = P(number greater than 4) =2/6=1/3 17

 Probability of the Complement of an Event

(ii) Let F be the event ‘getting a number less than or equal to 4’.
Number of possible outcomes (exhaustive events) = 6,
Favorable outcomes to the event F are 4 (1, 2, 3, 4)

Therefore, P(F) =4/6=2/3

P(E’) = 1 – P(E) = 1 – 1/3 = 2/3 = P(F)…..see next slide

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 Probability of the Complement of an Event

P(E) + P(not E) = 1
i.e., P(E) + P( E’ ) = 1, which gives us
P( E’ ) = 1 – P(E).
In general, it is true that for an event E,
P( E ) = 1 – P(E’)
The event E’ , representing ‘not E’, is called the complement of the event E.
We also say that E and E’ are complementary events.

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 Probability of the Complement of an Event

• In general, A’ is the complementary event of A, then

P(A’ ) =1− P(A)
Since P(A∪ A’ ) =1

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 Impossible event
What is the probability of getting a number 8 in a single throw of a die?
Solution:
We know that there are only six possible outcomes in a single throw of a die. These outcomes
are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. Since no face of the die is marked 8, so there is no outcome favorable to
8, i.e., the number of such outcomes is zero. In other words, getting 8 in a single throw of a die,
is impossible.

So, P(getting 8) =0/6=0

That is, the probability of an event which is impossible to occur is 0.
Such an event is called an impossible event.
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 Sure event /Certain event.
What is the probability of getting a number less than 7 in a single throw of die?
Solution:
Since every face of a die is marked with a number less than 7, it is sure that we will always get a
number less than 7 when it is thrown once. So, the number of favorable outcomes is the same as
the number of all possible outcomes, which is 6.

Therefore, P(E) = P(getting a number less than 7) =6/6=1

So, the probability of an event which is sure (or certain) to occur is 1.
Such an event is called a sure event or a certain event.
That is : 0  P(E)  1
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Question: Two players, Fatima and Zainab, play a tennis match. It is known that
the probability of Fatima winning the match is 0.62. What is the probability of
Zainab winning the match?
Solution : Let F and Z denote the events that Fatima wins the match and Zainab
wins the match, respectively.
The probability of Fatima’s winning = P(F) = 0.62 (given)
The probability of Zainab’s winning = P(Z) = 1 – P(F)
[As the events F and Z are complementary]
= 1 – 0.62 = 0.38
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Question: There are 40 students in Class X of a school of whom 25 are girls and
15 are boys. The class teacher has to select one student as a class representative.
She writes the name of each student on a separate card, the cards being identical.
Then she puts cards in a bag and stirs them thoroughly. She then draws one card
from the bag. What is the probability that the name written on the card is the name
of :
(i) a girl?
(ii) a boy?

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Solution : There are 40 students, and only one name card has to be chosen.

(i) The number of all possible outcomes is 40

The number of outcomes favorable for the name of a girl = 25
Therefore, P (card with name of a girl) = P(Girl) =25/40= 5/8

(ii) The number of outcomes favorable for a card with the name of a boy = 15
Therefore, P(card with name of a boy) = P(Boy) =15/40= 3/8

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Question: A box contains 3 blue, 2 white, and 4 red marbles. If a marble is drawn
at random from the box, what is the probability that it will be (i) white? (ii) blue?
(iii) red?
Solution : Saying that a marble is drawn at random is a short way of saying that
all the marbles are equally likely to be drawn. Therefore, the number of possible
outcomes = 3 +2 + 4 = 9
Let W denote the event ‘the marble is white’, B denote the event ‘the marble is
blue’ and R denote the event ‘marble is red’.

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(i) The number of outcomes favorable to the event W = 2
So, P(W) =2/9

Similarly,
(ii) P(B) =3/9=1/3 and
(iii) P(R) =4/9

Note that P(W) + P(B) + P(R) = 1.

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Question: Ahmed tosses two different coins simultaneously (say, one is of SAR
1 and other of SAR 2). What is the probability that he gets at least one head?

Solution: Let H =‘head’ and T = ‘tail’.

When two coins are tossed simultaneously, the possible outcomes are:
(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T) : which are all equally likely.

Here (H, H) means head up on the first coin and head up on the second coin. Similarly (H, T)
means head up on the first coin and tail up on the second coin and so on.

The outcomes favorable to the event E, ‘at least one head’ are (H, H), (H, T) and
(T, H).
So, the number of outcomes favorable to E is 3.
Therefore, P(E) =3/4
i.e., the probability that Ahmed gets at least one head is 3/4 28
 Probability of the Union of 2 Events

• For any 2 events A and B, it is always true that:

P(A∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B) − P(A∩ B)

• When A and B are mutually exclusive events:

P(A∪ B) = P(A)+ P(B)
Since (A∩ B) = 0

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Question: Suppose 35% of the households in a population own dogs, 30%
own cats, and 15% own both a cat and a dog.

Solution:

Owns a dog as well as a cat

P(AB) = 0.15
i) probability of owning a dog or a cat: P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= 0.35+0.30 – 0.15 = 0.50
i) probability of not owning a dog = P(A') = 1- 0.35 = 0.65
ii) probability of not owning a cat = P(B') = 1- 0.30 = 0.70 30