Profiling Small Arms Ammunition Handbook - Final
Profiling Small Arms Ammunition Handbook - Final
Profiling Small Arms Ammunition Handbook - Final
PROFILING
SMALL ARMS AMMUNITION
IN ARMED VIOLENCE SETTINGS
Support from UNIDIR core funders provides the foundation for all the Institute’s activities. This
research area of the Conventional Arms Programme is supported by the Government of Germany.
The Handbook owes gratitude to the participants of the UNIDIR Expert Review Meeting, carried out
in Chatham House, London, in December 2019, who provided valuable direction and feedback and
have themselves previously conducted the ammunition profiling studies on which this Handbook
is grounded. In particular, this Handbook recognizes the important work of Conflict Armament
Research; the Small Arms Survey; the United Nations Regional Centre for Peace, Disarmament and
Development in Latin America and the Caribbean; and Sou da Paz Institute. The Handbook owes
gratitude to the experts who helped review it, namely, Ana Pamela Romero, Andre Desmarais, Andres
Perez, Bob Seddon, Bruno Langeani, Cleveland Crooks, Daniel Mack, Gene Gesite Navarra Jr., Glenn
Lawrence, Hardy Giezendanner, Ivaylo Stefanov, James Bevan, Jonathan Rickell, Lenka Filipova,
Leonardo Lara, Marie-Jacques Cantinelli, Miguel Bernard, Natalia Pollachi, Natalie Briggs, Nicholas
Florquin, Nils Holger Anders, Rachel Bolton-King, Renata Dalaqua, Robert Kondor, Rodolfo Gamboa,
Roland Martial, Santiago Boggione, and numerous serving officials who wish to remain anonymous.
The Handbook also owes gratitude to the Small Arms Survey for making figures available and to
Olivia Denonville for her guidance. The authors also thank UNIDIR staff who supported and guided
this research, in particular Renata Dwan, Himayu Shiotani, and Eric Schulz.
The designations employed and the The United Nations Institute for
presentation of the material in this Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) is a
publication do not imply the expression voluntarily funded, autonomous institute
of any opinion whatsoever on the part within the United Nations. One of the few
of the Secretariat of the United Nations policy institutes worldwide focusing on
concerning the legal status of any country, disarmament, UNIDIR generates knowledge
territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or and promotes dialogue and action on
concerning the delimitation of its frontiers disarmament and security. Based in Geneva,
or boundaries. The views expressed in the UNIDIR assists the international community
publication are the sole responsibility of the to develop the practical, innovative ideas
individual authors. They do not necessary needed to find solutions to critical security
reflect the views or opinions of the United problems.
Nations, UNIDIR, its staff members or www.unidir.org | © UNIDIR 2020
sponsors.
PART 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................... 5
1.1 Why small arms ammunition?.........................................................5
1.2 What is ammunition profiling?...................................................... 12
1.3 Objectives of this Handbook........................................................ 13
1.4 Who can benefit from this Handbook?....................................... 14
1.5 Guiding principles........................................................................... 15
1.6 Scope of small arms ammunition................................................ 17
1.7 Technical overview of small arms ammunition..........................19
1.8 How to use this Handbook........................................................... 20
DATABASE 1: EVIDENCE.......................................................... 29
Section A: Data collection................................................................... 31
Section B: Data analysis..................................................................... 58
DATABASE 2: RECORDS............................................................71
Section A: Data collection...................................................................73
Section B: Data analysis......................................................................79
Big-data should never obscure the human stories behind the statistics –in fact, we
understand them as complementary. Public security must be understood as people-
centred security. And our efforts to profile ammunition, should be understood as
efforts to prevent the further loss of life and promote the socioeconomic wellbeing of
affected communities.
We are releasing this Handbook with a call to work together and generate a multiplier
effect –and doing so urgently. This Handbook recognizes that the success of our
endeavour, cutting illicit ammunition flows with a view to reduce armed violence,
requires coordinated action by UN System partners, Member States, the entire
national security sector, mayors, academics, practitioners and local organizations.
The solutions to ending armed violence are within reach, but we must reach together.
Focusing on ammunition flows and misuse can help reduce armed violence.
There are several potential advantages to focusing on ammunition: Unlike
firearms, ammunition must be replenished once used, and restricting its
flow can therefore “starve firearms of oxygen”. Also, ammunition supply
chains tend to be shorter from transfer to use, increasing the scope for
domestic policy to have an immediate effect in reducing armed violence. In
short, improved research into ammunition flows and the dynamics enabling
lethal outcomes can inform policy responses, with the potential to reduce
the impact of firearms-related violence.
The purpose of
The purpose of this Handbook is to offer users a
this Handbook is
to offer users a step-by-step guide for ammunition profiling. This
step-by-step guide means generating an overview of the small arms
for ammunition ammunition that have been diverted, trafficked or
profiling. misused in settings affected by armed violence. The
For Databases 1 and 2, the guidelines in are separated into two main actions:
(Section A) data collection and (Section B) data analysis. Part 3 concludes
the Handbook by presenting options for a more refined distillation of
ammunition-specific findings.
More than half of the homicides worldwide are caused by firearms or, more
precisely, by their ammunition (UNODC 2019). Although armed violence
evolves, there are cycles and trends in violence that, if identified, can help
inform policy responses. Armed violence tends to occur in concentrated
spaces, mostly in urban areas where resources and opportunities are
scarce. It is particularly high and widespread across Latin America and the
Caribbean, in certain cities in the United States, and in parts of western
and southern Africa. Policies in chronically violent contexts have, however,
often struggled to sustainably reduce violence (Adams 2012), hence
the importance of fresh thinking and approaches to promote effective
interventions and combat policy inertia.
1 The 2013 Global Study on Homicide showed that the number of firearms-related homicides in
2012 was 177,000 (UNODC 2014, 65). The 2019 Global Study establishes that number, five years
later, in 2017, at 238,804 (UNODC 2019, 19).
2 See: https://comtrade.un.org/data
The collection and analysis of spent casings in Rio de Janeiro for the 2014–
2017 period (Sou da Paz Institute 2017) and in 2018 (Olliveira and Demori
2019) have also offered significant methodological insights on which this
Handbooks seeks to build. Finally, this Handbook owes gratitude to the
All these processes, with their different legal strengths and memberships,
benefit from an upstream flow of new evidence regarding the source, supply
chain pathways, dynamics facilitating unauthorized use, and overall impact
of ammunition flows.
So, what is the added value of this Handbook? This Handbook seeks
to generate a catalytic effect, to the extent that anyone interested in
conducting ammunition profiling can do so by using this how-to guide as
a starting point. In addition, this Handbook aims to codify an ammunition
profiling methodology into a tool that extracts useful insights to reduce
This Handbook will refer to readers and users as “users”, since following the
guidelines below is, at its core, a research effort.
4 Source: Bobbfwed. This image is intended to serve as an illustration of commonly recovered small
arms ammunition and to illustrate the scope of this Handbook. The image serves an illustrative,
rather than a comprehensive or technical purpose.
The guidelines for Databases 1 and 2 are separated into two main
actions: (Section A) data collection and (Section B) data analysis. These
guidelines are designed to assist users who are building an ammunition
profile from scratch by presenting self-contained, per database, instructions
on how to collect the data and then analyse it. Completing this effort will
yield a comprehensive profile of ammunition recovered in armed violence
settings.
The databases are discussed separately because the end users might be
different, and the information might be stored in different departments or
collected by different personnel or agencies. For example:
That being said, practitioners may use only the information that
is available to them and still gain valuable insights concerning
ammunition flows that can help inform policy at either the municipal or
national levels. UNIDIR stands ready to provide guidance on inter-agency
coordination when applying this Handbook, upon request.
1. Primary evidence:
Database 1: Evidence
• Built from the following information points: (a) ammunition
recovered from crime scenes, (b) ammunition seized in domestic
operations and (c) ammunition seized at entry-exit points. When
the ammunition recovered from any of these information points is
accompanied by a law enforcement report, contextual information
from that report should also be included in the spreadsheet.
2. Records of information:
Database 2: Records
• Built from the following information points: (a) records of ammunition
imports, (b) records of ammunition manufactured in-country and (c)
records of ammunition stockpiled in the country.
3. Contextual information:
Database 3: Illicit manufacture
Database 4: Interviews with affected communities
When defining the evidence target, it is important to ensure that the sample
is representative of the universe (also referred to as the “population”).5
To make such a determination, the scale of the universe must be known,
at least roughly. For example, if a territory has had 100,000 documented
incidents of ammunition discharge in the time frame under examination,
then users must use that number as a benchmark to determine what
percentage of those cases would constitute a representative sample. A
representative sample allows findings to be generalizable. In addition, the
documentation of the sample must be achievable within the limits of the
available resources. As such, it is a balance between “representation” and
“achievability”.
The main takeaway from this discussion is that users should feel free to
define their own evidence target, which needs to answer the question
identified by national authorities and be based on a representative sample.
7 To differentiate between illicit possession and illicit trafficking, the United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime defined the terms as follows in its latest study on firearms:
Illicit possession: The unlawful possession of regulated or prohibited firearms, their parts
and components or ammunition. Carrying a handgun without a licence is an example of illicit
possession.
Illicit trafficking: The import, export, trans-shipment, acquisition, sale, delivery, movement or
transfer of arms, their parts and components, and ammunition from or across the territory of
one State to that of another State if any one of the States concerned does not authorize it in
accordance with national law of one of the countries involved or if the arms are not uniquely
marked upon manufacture and marked upon import. Arms that were not properly deactivated
according to the national legislation of the destination country can also be illicitly trafficked or
smuggled.
8 Monitoring and diagnosing small arms ammunition diversion, trafficking and misuse is part
of a project undertaken by UNIDIR’s Urban Violence work stream. For more information on
the project, see: https://unidir.org/projects/urban-violence-adapting-arms-control-new-
environments-1.
9 This section should not be considered an exhaustive manual of safe operating practices, but
rather illustrative of the minimum measures that should be considered before entering a scene
that could contain firearms, ammunition or explosives. To ensure the safety of users and the
surroundings, a full thorough risk assessment of the location must be completed by a competent
Ammunition Technical Officer.
• The ammunition samples and the reports10 from which to extract the
raw data
• Nitrile gloves to offer some protection to users
• Magnifying glasses to enhance the view of headstamp markings
• Chalk to enhance worn or erased markings for observation and
photography
• Plastic tweezers to hold ammunition without leaving individualizing
marks on the cartridges
• A magnet to help determine the composition or coating of ammunition
cartridge cases and bullets or determine the projectile type11
• A computer with spreadsheet access through which to input and
systematize the information
• A digital photographic camera and photo scales (a suitable ammunition
gauge or ruler could also be used in lieu of photo scales)
• Callipers (or ammunition gauges) for measuring cartridge case length
and cartridge case head diameter to ensure correct calibre identification
• Record-keeping paper forms to document any and all physical evidence
manipulated (for more on chain of custody, see Box 4)
10 In other words, recovered ammunition and the accompanying law enforcement reports.
11 The magnet attracts ferrous materials.
This step is crucial as it can be considered the research design. It will define
what characteristics will be extracted from the ammunition sample and
accompanying reports, and which ones will not. It is recommended that
this process undergoes a thorough national review to ensure all the desired
fields are considered. The first spreadsheet will have two parts, each
corresponding to a different source of information: small arms ammunition
evidence and accompanying law enforcement reports. These sources of
information, once systematized into a spreadsheet, will represent Database
1: Evidence. To collect the desired information, a sample spreadsheet
template can be downloaded here.12 Alternatively, for users interested
in building an organic spreadsheet, some recommended data-collection
fields are as follows:
26 Typology informed by the International Classification of Crime for Statistical Purposes (ICCS)
prepared by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC, 2015), but not retrieved
verbatim. This typology is intended to be illustrative, rather than comprehensive. Users should
tailor this field to the national context and definitions stipulated in national legislation.
Addressing GBV and, more specifically, the link between GBV and firearms
and ammunition, requires gender disaggregated data on victimization,
perpetration and other roles played in the facilitation of armed violence.
For this reason, it is important to include gender disaggregated indicators
in all aspects of data collection. These indicators include those that may
be found in crime scene reports when profiling ammunition, including
gender of the perpetrator, gender of the victim, relationship between
perpetrator and victim, and any incitement-related or exacerbating
factors identified. It is also important to keep in mind that outcomes of
crimes such as femicide or sexual violence can be indicative of GBV.
The Small Arms Survey has been piloting the feasibility of performing
ammunition profiling by extracting relevant data contained in the Automatic
Ballistics Identification System used by some countries. The profiling
method pioneered by the Small Arms Survey consists of extracting the
“ammunition profiling-relevant data” from these automated systems, which
the system acquires automatically when running ballistics correlations,
and then offloading the data into a database. It is a method designed to
27 For an example of a Firearms Focal Point initiative, provided by Arquebus Solutions, see: https://
arquebus.uk/firearms-focal-points/
1 2
3 4
All the information in these headstamps can be distilled into precise data
entries and inputted into the spreadsheet (see Tables 2–6). These would
28 Sources: The two headstamp photos on the top have been provided by Rodolfo Gamboa,
Senior Technical Officer at UNLIREC, and the two headstamp photos at the bottom by © Hardy
Giezendanner, UNIDIR Researcher.
Case information
Lot number All alphanumerical marking Import code Year Symbols Country
From the sample data outlined above, users can see how an overview of
small arms ammunition flows begins to take shape. For example, three out
of the four documented exhibits were, most likely, manufactured in the year
2000. The more information that is entered into this database, the more
reliable and informative the observed trends will be.29
29 This Handbook recognizes that users might encounter ammunition markings that may need to be
documented and recorded using Cyrillic, Hebraic, Chinese and other characters and symbols that
are not included in the example above. The characters encountered will depend on the context
and the type of ammunition circulating in that environment or region.
30 Source: Andre Desmarais, forensic ballistics experts at the Small Arms Survey. Note: (a) Example
of markings stamped on the body of a cartridge case. First digits: calibre. Second digits: code of
the merchant. (b) Example of individual marking in the groove of a cartridge case.
31 Sources: The photos on the top have been provided by the United Nations Organization
Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Arms Embargo Cell (MONUSCO
AEC), and the two photos at the bottom have been provided by Manuel Martinez Miralles, UNIDIR
Researcher.
32 For shotgun cartridges, the lot or batch number is, on occasions, printed on the inside of the
packaging rather than the outside.
• Ensure that the photography area is well lit and that the item is in focus.
• Photograph each unique ammunition sample individually and try to remove
all other objects from the background.
• For each unique ammunition sample, capture the entire headstamp, keep-
ing around 150 mm of distance between the camera lens and the head-
stamp.
• For each unique ammunition sample, capture the cartridge on its side
against a ruler or photo scale, with the rim of the cartridge placed at the 0
cm mark of the unit of measurement.
» Ensure the photo captures all the markings on the side of the cartridge
case, when available.
• Ensure that each photograph’s digital file number is integrated or linked to
the corresponding ammunition entry in the spreadsheet.
Date of crime/ Time Location Address/ Situational Outcome of the Gender of Sex of
seizure coordinates Context crime/intervention Victim Victim
3/17/2020 23:00 Public 45 Excel St. Community Homicide Male Male
related
Tables 13 and 14: Excel example of data input from a law enforcement seizure
report
Date of crime Time Location Address/ Situational Outcome of the Gender Sex of Age of
/seizure coordinates Context crime/intervention of Victim Victim Victim
17/03/2020 4:00 Public Av. El Limon, Unknown Illicit poessession N/A N/A N/A
Sugar Distric
CROSS-REFERENCE ALERT!
To develop a more comprehensive understanding of the
relationship between firearms-related crime and calibres, the
findings from this column should be cross-referenced to the
crime scene reports: address or coordinates, situational context,
outcome of the crime, perpetrator’s relationship to the victim,
and any available police intelligence, among other information.
• Length of cartridge case: This field will inform the calibre determination
of a particular ammunition sample, when in doubt.
» Similarly, if the cartridge case head diameter is measured and
recorded, it would also confirm correct calibre identification.
• Markings stamped on the body or groove of the cartridge case: This
field will serve as complementary information from available markings
on the body or groove of a cartridge case. In case of uncertainty, this
field will act to provide additional information and correct identification
of the available fields, including manufacturer, codes and calibre. Not all
recovered evidence will have alphanumerical or monogram markings.
• Composition or coating of the cartridge case: This field can inform
the origin (some materials are characteristic of manufacturing regions)
and the purpose of the cartridge and/or calibre of a particular evidence
sample, when in doubt.
• Colour of primer annulus sealant: This column should be grouped by
the different colour rings identified. The colour of the primer annulus
sealant can, on certain occasions, shed light on the authorized end user
and end use of the ammunition, as some authorized end users and uses
are assigned particular colours.
• Projectile lacquer colour: This field should be grouped by the different
projectile colours documented. Projectile colours are important as
they might be an indication of the cartridge load and the organization
for which it was produced, and, potentially, shed light on the purpose of
the ammunition round.
37 Monitoring and diagnosing small arms ammunition diversion, trafficking and misuse is part
of a project undertaken by UNIDIR’s Urban Violence work stream. For more information on
the project, see: https://unidir.org/projects/urban-violence-adapting-arms-control-new-
environments-1.
This step is crucial as it can be considered the research design for the second
spreadsheet. It will define which characteristics will be extracted from the
records of ammunition and which ones will not. It is recommended that this
process undergoes a thorough national review process to ensure all the
desired fields are considered. This database could require three information
points: (a) records of ammunition imports, (b) records of ammunition
manufactured in-country and (c) records of ammunition stocks. However,
keep in mind that these records might not all be held by one agency and that
the records themselves might not be standardized. These compilations
of all the records, once systematized into a spreadsheet, will represent
Database 2: Records. To enable collection of the desired information, some
recommended spreadsheets fields follow:
• Unique identifying number (assigned by the users)
• Record or file number (assigned by the national authorities)38
• Number of live ammunition rounds
• Information point
» Records of ammunition imports
» Records of ammunition manufactured in-country
» Records of ammunition stocks
• Country of manufacture
• Manufacturer
• Factory
• Exporting country
• Exporter
• Transit country
• Importing country
• Importer
38 Record or file number assigned by national authorities should be documented by the users and
included in the spreadsheet for referencing and record-keeping, quality assurance, and future
verification purposes. This number identifies the record or document under examination. The
record of file number will only be used to referencing research purposes.
While the extract presented above might seem vague, it presents significant
information. The information from the extract can be systematized as
suggested in Tables 15–17.
After inputting primary information into the database, users should analyse
the data. The question here becomes: What should users look for? This
section is intended to act as a guide of the different analyses and summary
statistics that could be extracted from the database. The following guide
is not comprehensive, but rather illustrative of the findings that might be
possible to extract. This section also limits its scope to the more accessible
statistical methodologies using standard spreadsheet options. The
discussion explores field by field what useful information could be extracted
to build a profile of ammunition.
• Number of live ammunition rounds: At a minimum, this column
should be summed in its entirety to compute the total number of live
ammunition rounds documented with a legal origin.
• Information point: The information points should be placed in a drop-
down menu to isolate entries from each of the sources of data (records
of ammunition imports, of ammunition manufactured in-country and
of ammunition stocks). For example, authorities might be interested
in isolating data from ammunition imports and treating the other two
information points as separate units of analysis. This field will allow for
such a separation.
• Country of manufacture: This column should be grouped according
to the different countries of manufacture documented. A percentage
distribution will offer a baseline of information or a benchmark for
cross-referencing to assist in determining the origin of the ammunition
with a legal presence in the country that was documented in Database
1: Evidence.
Ethics, safety and danger: Users are bound to respect ethical standards
of practice as per national directives or institutional bodies. Here, it is
important to highlight that some interviews with individuals or groups
connected to the supply, storage and use of ammunition – such as gang
members, criminals, prison populations or vulnerable individuals – should
be approved by the relevant authorities before taking place, given the
potential for danger.
The user can use some or all of these methods.39 As a minimum, interviews
with key actors should be sought to provide additional background
information or context. Field observation means that the user will visit
various sites where ammunition is presumed to be illicitly manufactured.
This will help the user better understand the specific contexts surrounding
the unauthorized manufacture of ammunition and can also help identify key
stakeholders for the interviews. Institutional managers should be aware
that any fieldwork, particularly involving criminal or potentially dangerous
subjects or vulnerable individuals, should adhere to legal ethical standards
(see the Ethics, Safety and Danger section above).
39 The method of data collection (e.g. audio recordings, summary notes, field notes) needs careful
consideration as it is important to be consistent in the approach because different data-
collection methods yield different levels of data quality, and making notes can unconsciously or
consciously incorporate observer or interviewer bias.
The notes from applying the qualitative research methods will be used in
the final report to contextualize the findings from Databases 1 and 2 and as
stand-alone findings and indications for future research.
When carrying out qualitative data analysis, always bear in mind that the
overall aim is to respond to the lead research question: “What is the effect
of illicitly produced ammunition on armed violence in urban environments?”
The analysis can be done systematically by following the secondary
questions and assessing to what extent they have been answered by the
qualitative data collected. The analysis write-up can then be organized
according to which insights or main themes and tendencies emerge.
With these caveats in mind, when analysing the qualitative data, users
should be looking for:
• Trends, patterns and tendencies that provide answers to the secondary
research questions.
• Who is involved, and how, why, where and when? What are the key
intersections between illicit ammunition manufacturing and violence,
Ethics, safety and danger: Users are bound to respect ethical standards
of practice as per national directives or institutional bodies. Here, it is
important to highlight that some interviews with individuals or groups
connected to the supply, storage and use of ammunition – such as gang
members, criminals, prison populations or vulnerable individuals –should
The user or research team should carefully plan the qualitative methods
to be used and carefully consider the ethical considerations involved. The
methods need to be tailored to each context to produce the best results.
This section outlines some recommended methods:
• Semi-structured interviews with a range of key interviewees
• Focus groups with key populations or groups of key interviewees
• Field observation
The user can use some or all of these methods.40 As a minimum, interviews
with key interviewees (outlined below) should be sought to provide
additional background information or context. Field observation means that
the user will visit various sites where ammunition is presumed to have been
trafficked or misused, for example crime scenes. This will help the user
better understand the specific contexts surrounding the use of ammunition
and can also help identify key stakeholders for the interviews. Institutional
managers should be aware that any fieldwork, particularly involving criminal
or potentially dangerous subjects or vulnerable individuals, should adhere
to legal ethical standards (see the Ethics, Safety and Danger section above).
40 The method of data collection (e.g. audio recordings, summary notes, field notes) needs careful
consideration as it is important to be consistent in the approach because different data-
collection methods yield different levels of data quality, and making notes can unconsciously or
consciously incorporate observer or interviewer bias.
When carrying out qualitative data analysis, always bear in mind that
the overall aim is to respond to the lead research question: “How do
changing flows of ammunition impact levels of armed violence in urban
environments?” The analysis can be done systematically by following
the secondary questions and assessing to what extent they have been
answered by the qualitative data collected. The analysis write-up can then
be organized according to which insights or main themes and tendencies
emerge.
Firearms Guide Database Now in its 11th edition, the Firearms Accessible
Guide allows the user to filter ammunition Here
through a web-based database, featuring
producers, ballistic specifications and
pictures. Subscriptions run yearly.
iTrace by Conflict Global The iTrace project is a global data set that Accessible
Armament Re- database presents verified information required to Here
search understand weapons transfers. The project
combines an extensive programme of in-con-
flict field investigations with the world’s most
powerful public access weapon tracking
database.
41 Estimates based on interviews conducted by the authors with Nils Holger Anders, a leading expert
and practitioner in the field of ammunition profiling and tracing.
It is crucial to understand what the data says and the limitations of what it
does not say. That is, the data collected should be analysed in its context,
with attention given to the time period under scrutiny and policy changes
that could have led to variations. The analysis sections provide a road map
of what to look for with each database. To understand what the data is
trying to say, it is crucial to draw the suggested cross-references and seek
to shed light on complex dynamics regarding possible origins, lethality
rates and conflating factors enabling armed violence. It is also important
to look for big picture trends and understand the databases not as isolated
silos, but as pieces of a larger puzzle. In practice, this means that many
findings will require follow-up research to unveil a more disaggregated
picture. As such, understanding what the data says can also be considered
as finding the right questions to ask.
Once it is clear what trends emerge from the data and what questions remain
unanswered, it is important to define a road map of actions. While some
findings might be mature enough to be turned into policy prescriptions,
others might be indications that further disaggregated research is
needed. As such, this Handbook recommends a vigorous discussion on
the implications of each finding, with a view to defining the right ensuing
actions. In practice, this means that if the first step identified the right
questions to ask, this second step identifies the right actions to take.
Some of the defined actions will involve policy suggestions; others will
be more research oriented. In either case, it is crucial to remain vigilant
An evidence base will help bring policy prescriptions into light. For example,
if over a five-year period, half of the ammunition recovered from crime
scenes had the same import code, while that code only represented 10% of
total imports, then officials should recreate the distribution pattern of that
imported lot of ammunition. Officials should recreate the life cycle of that
ammunition, as much as possible, to evaluate why that import code was
recovered from crime scenes at a disproportionate rate compared to its
market share. If applicable, and once provided with appropriate evidence,
policymakers should tighten the controls that were found ill-suited in
keeping legally imported ammunition from unauthorized use.
42 It is worth cross-referencing peaks and dips with other associated factors or even crimes. For
example, when fired ammunition figures are decreasing, is knife crime rising?
43 Changes in policy or legislation may also cause divergence within regions, so the potential risk
and impact for any change needs to be well explored and considered prior to its implementation.
Sometimes, local laws do reduce violence in their immediate jurisdiction but then create demand,
diversion or effects that increase violence in neighbouring areas as an unintended consequence.
Hence, a collaborative and holistic input is required to minimize unintended consequences.
This Handbook recognizes that analysing data, asking the right questions,
acting on the findings, monitoring patterns and channelling lessons learned
are easier to do conceptually than operationally. As such, this Handbook
provides an example of how the knowledge generated through the pipeline
of analysis can lead to reductions in armed violence.
Illustrative case
FINDING
Data shows that 25% of ammunition recovered from
crime scenes in the current year are marked with
manufacturer markings consistent with those from an
importation that took place the previous calendar year.
This Handbook also presents an opportunity to take a step back and rethink
armed violence and reconsider the role of ammunition – a role that is central
to lethal outcomes in incidents of armed violence and often understudied.
It is the final message of this Handbook that to move forward, on some
occasions, it is crucial to take a step back to analyse the full picture. And
since the challenge of armed violence in is urgent, this analytical step back
ought to be taken without delay. The right solutions to armed violence
are within reach, but to find the right solutions, it is crucial to ask the
right questions. The ultimate purpose of this Handbook is to lead users to
the right questions.
Alvazzi del Frate, Anna, Gergely Hideg and Emile LeBrun. 2020. Gender Counts:
Assessing Global Armed Violence Datasets for Gender Relevance. Small Arms
Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies.
Baird, Adam. 2017. “Dancing with Danger: Ethnographic Safety, Male Bravado
and Gang Research in Colombia”. Qualitative Research, vol. 18, no. 3. https://doi.
org/10.1177/1468794117722194.
Baird, Adam, Matthew Bishop and Dylan Kerrigan. 2018. Understanding the
Connections Between International Drug Trafficking and Community Gang
Violence in the Port-of-Spain, Trinidad. www.paccsresearch.org.uk/wp-content/
uploads/2020/02/Trinidad-Gangs-Policy-Brief.pdf.
Bevan, James. 2008a. Ammunition Tracing Kit: Protocols and Procedures for
Recording Small-Calibre Ammunition. Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of
International and Development Studies. www.smallarmssurvey.org/publications/
by-type/book-series/ammunition-tracing-kit.html.
———. 2008b. Blowback: Kenya’s Illicit Ammunition Problem. Small Arms Survey,
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