Scenario-Planning

Strategic Foresight Framework

Dodie Tricahyono, Ph.D.

Siska Noviaristanti, Ph.D
 this section are the ones I use most often. Figure 2 shows the Foresight Diamond (Popper 2008) w
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business The Foresight Diamonds
trates very clearly the wide range of methods available depending on the particular context and ne

Telkom University

Foresight practitioners need to have a

toolbox of methods that suit the context in
which they are working, the purpose of the
particular activity being undertaken and the
desired outcomes.

The Foresight Diamond (Popper 2008)

illustrates very clearly the wide range of
methods available depending on the
particular context and needs.

Figure 3: Foresight
Creating the great Diamond
business leaders
2
 For strategy to be infused by foresight then, the current model of strategic planning needs to be rec
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business The Generic Foresight Process
tualised into four separate, distinct (Maree Conway,
but interdependent 2014)
stages each with its own approach and meth
M ARE E C O N W AY shown in Figure 2.
Telkom University

TheFigure
Generic Foresight
1: Generic Process
Foresight (Joseph
Process Voros,
(Copyright Joseph2000). It shows
Voros 2000) Figure 2: Four Level Strategy Development Process
(based on the Generic Foresight Process, Voros 2003)
the process and indicates clearly that there is a structured and For strategy to be infused by foresight then, the current model of
integrated process for using foresight in strategy development. strategic planning needs to be reconceptualised into four
cess that structures how I design my foresight approach around three major How activities:
do you put envi-
this process into practice?
It has three major activities: environmental scanning, separate, distinct but interdependent stages each with its own
nning, strategic thinking
strategicand taking action
thinking today. These
and taking action three activities together are the primary
today. approach and methods.
Environment
ght Infused Strategy Development. This term recognises that foresight doesn’t replace existing scanning seeks information about change to provide input into the other stages. The q
of that input is directly related to the quality of outputs, so scanning is a critical step in the foresight p
ather enables thinking about the future in new ways to be integrated into those processes and
Organisations
3 Creating
may think they are ‘doing’ the great
environmental business
scanning leaders
and casting their net widely, but
 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business The Scenario Development Process
Telkom University

4 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Foresight Framework
Framework foresight is a structured approach for forecasting
and planning. It starts with defining the domain of what
is being studied. Next is an exploration of the current conditions
and the stakeholders that are involved. Then, a more in depth
analysis of the forces of change can follow. This helps to see a
baseline future, the expected future based on the current
insights on the forces of change. Also, one starts to see the
uncertainty associated with the forces of change. Things can go
another way. This helps to consider alternative futures. Both the
baseline future and the alternative future will have implications.
The organization can respond to this by designing policy, plans
and actions that contribute to a better future.
In this way the foresight project not only helps to get a better
understanding of change, but also to anticipate change. Here,
we describe the method up to the stage of identifying strategic
issues. In a real project, each of these steps would be subject of
a workshop, interviews, literature reviews, and project team
meetings. Also additional methods can be used to deepen
Source: Freija van Duijne & Peter Bishop (January 2018). Introduction understanding in each of these steps.
to Strategic Foresight. Future Motions-Dutch Future Society

5 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Domain Definition
• Domain
The domain is what the project is about, such as a geographic region
The first step in any foresight project is the
(e.g., city, country, etc.), an industry (oil, auto, communication, etc.)
definition of the domain, its scope and or an issue (e.g., immigration, education, taxes, etc.).
boundaries, time horizon and issues to be
• Time horizon
addressed.
This defines how far in the future one is intending to look. It can be
a round number, like 2030 or 2040. It is usually not too close by in
the future. Current plans and developments already set a mark on
that future. Also the time horizon is not too far in the future, as
anything can go over too long a time horizon. The time horizon
should provide the freedom to think about alternative futures.
• Domain map
A domain map is a visual representation of the boundaries. It
defines what is in and what is out. A simple map of ‘bubbles’
represents the main categories and subcategories of the domain.
• Key issues or key questions
A precise description of the issues and questions helps to clarify the
importance of this issue for the organization. This can be motivated
by a specific cause, or it can be purely exploratory. In the latter case,
the key issues and questions may emerge from the foresight project.

6 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Assessment of current conditions
Telkom University
◼ This is an analysis of where the domain currently stands and how it got here.
This brings together information, facts, trends and indicators of the current
conditions.
◼ This includes quantitative information if available. But also qualitative
descriptions can be insightful. The assessment includes a stakeholder analysis,
which looks at the people and organizations that could affect the future of the
domain.
◼ In this assessment we also look back in time, in order to see which conditions
have shaped the current conditions. Often, this is not a thorough historic
study, but a brief analysis of technologies and social, economic conditions that
have impacted the current era.

7 Creating the great business leaders

 Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis
School Economics and Business Driving forces: STEEP analysis
Telkom University
As we have already seen, the driving
Global sources of change forces of change can be categorized as
follows: Social, Technological,
Economic, Environmental and Political
(STEEP). A STEEP analysis adds to the
assessment of the current domain.

8 Creating the great business leaders

Critical Uncertainties
A convergent process of
prioritization
Allocation priority votes:
importance and degree of
uncertainty to the focal issue.
•Energy prices rise or fall?
•Consumer value,
traditional or mote self-
expressive?
•Technology advance:
rapid or slow?
•Government lean toward:
deregulation or regulation?
9
Scenario Logics

Narrow down to two to five

possible futures that will lead
to strategic insight.
• Final two critical
uncertainties to serve
as the axes of a 2-by-2
matrix.
• Four scenario logics are
then generated from
the labels on the ends
of the two axes.

10
Scenarios

Telling the story of each

chosen scenario.
•Method: write
newspaper headlines
on post-it notes.
•Develop narrative
scenarios.

11
Implications and Options
Explore
•the implications of each scenario and
•the strategic options appropriate to those implications.

12
Early Indicators

• Moving from a set

of scenarios to a
single strategy .

13