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Assignment 1 (Probability Theory)

This document provides instructions for Assignment 1 of the course BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis. It is due on August 20, 2023 and is worth 10% of the student's final grade. Students must answer two randomly selected questions during the first 15 minutes of class. They should take a photo of their solutions and submit them by the deadline as a single Word file less than 20MB using their student ID as the file name. Late submissions will not be accepted. The document then provides 15 sample probability and statistics problems for the assignment.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
69 views5 pages

Assignment 1 (Probability Theory)

This document provides instructions for Assignment 1 of the course BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis. It is due on August 20, 2023 and is worth 10% of the student's final grade. Students must answer two randomly selected questions during the first 15 minutes of class. They should take a photo of their solutions and submit them by the deadline as a single Word file less than 20MB using their student ID as the file name. Late submissions will not be accepted. The document then provides 15 sample probability and statistics problems for the assignment.

Uploaded by

JJFbjed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 5

Lecturer: Prof.

Ruwan Jayathilaka
BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis
Assignment 1 (Probability Theory) Due: 20 August 2023

Submission information
• This assignment mark is 100 and worth 10% of your final grade.
• Please answer two questions during the first 15 minutes of the lecture day.
Sunday 20 August 2023: from 2:30pm-2.45pm
• What questions you should answer will be provided by the lecturer with in the first 5 minutes.
Note: Please take photo of your solutions and put them into correct order and submit as one word
file to the given link in the courseweb. Make sure you use your MB number as your file name and
the word file is less than 20MB file size

Late submission: Zero marks.

Questions

(1) The number of sports turning up when a six-sided die is tossed is observed. Consider the
following events:
A: The number observed is an even number.
B: The number observed is greater than 4
C: The number observed is less than 4.
D: The number observed is 4.

a) Define a sample space for this random experiment, and assign probabilities to the
outcomes.
b) Find P ( A), P (B ), P(C ) and P (D ) .
c) Find P(A ) .
d) Find P ( A  B ) .
e) Find P ( A  B ) .
f) Are events B and C mutually exclusive?

(2) A manager must decide which two out of two male applicants (Bandara and Dammika) and two female
applicants (Anila and Chamari) should receive job offers.
a) What is the random experiment?
b) List all possible outcomes in S.
c) List the outcomes in the following events:
L: Chamari receives an offer.
M: Bandara doesn’t receive an offer.
N: At least one woman receives an offer.

Page 1 of 5
Lecturer: Prof. Ruwan Jayathilaka
BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis
Assignment 1 (Probability Theory) Due: 20 August 2023

(3) The number of spots turning up when a six-sided die is tossed is observed. The sample space for this
experiment is S = 1,2,3,4,5,6. Answer each of the following questions, and use Venn diagram to depict
the situation graphically.
a) What is the union of A = 2,3 and B = 2,6 ?
b) What is the intersection of A = 2,3,4,5 and B = 3,5,6?
c) What is the complement of A = 2,3,4,5 ?
d) Are A = 3 and B = 1,2 mutually exclusive events? Explain.

(4) The result of flipping two fair coins is observed.


a) Define the sample space.
b) Assign probabilities to the individual outcomes.
c) Find the probability of observing one head and one tail.
d) Find the probability of observing at least one head.

(5) In above exercise (2), we considered a manager who was deciding which two of four applicants (Anila,
Bandara, Chamari and Dammika) should receive job offers. Suppose that the manager, having deemed
the applicants to the equally qualified, chooses at random the two who will receive job offers.
a) Assign probabilities to the outcomes in the sample space.
b) Find the probability that Chamari will receive an offer.
c) Find the probability that one man and one woman will receive an offer.
d) Find the probability that Bandara will not receive an offer.
e) Find the probability that at least one woman will receive an offer.

(6) A computer supplies store that sells personal computers and related supplies is concerned that it may be
overstocking printers. The store has tabulated the number of printers sold weekly for each of the past 80
weeks. The store records show that the maximum number of printers sold in any given week is 4. The
results are summarized in the following table:

Number of printers sold Number of weeks


0 36
1 28
2 12
3 2
4 2

The store intends to use the tabulated data as a basic forecasting printer sales in any given week.

a) Define the random experiment of interest of interest to the store.


b) List all possible outcomes in the sample space.
c) Assign probabilities to each of the individual outcomes.
d) Find the probability of selling at least three printers in any given week.

Page 2 of 5
Lecturer: Prof. Ruwan Jayathilaka
BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis
Assignment 1 (Probability Theory) Due: 20 August 2023

(7) The trustee of a mining company’s accident compensation plan has solicited the employee’s feeling
towards a proposed revision in the plan. A breakdown of the responses is shown in the following table.
Suppose that an employee is selected at random, with the relevant events define as follows:

B : The employee selected is a blue-collar worker.


W: The employee selected is a white-color worker.
M: The employee selected is a manager
F : The employee selected favours the revision.

Decision Blue-collar worker (B) White-color worker (W) Manager (M)


For (F ) 67 32 11
Against F( ) 63 18 9

a) Define a sample space for this experiment.


b) List all the outcomes belonging to the event F .
c) Find the probability that the employee selected is
i) a blue-collar worker
ii) a white-collar worker
iii) a manager
iv) in favour of the decision
v) against the decision.
d) Find the probability that the employee selected is not a manager.
e) Express each of the following events in words, and find its probability:
i) B or W
ii) F or M
iii) F and W
iv) F and M

(8) Suppose we have the following joint probabilities:


A1 A2 A3
B1 0.1 0.3 0.2
B2 0.2 0.1 0.1

a) Calculate the marginal probabilities.


b) Calculate P( A1 | B1 )
c) Calculate P( A2 | B1 )
d) Calculate P( A3 | B1 )

Page 3 of 5
Lecturer: Prof. Ruwan Jayathilaka
BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis
Assignment 1 (Probability Theory) Due: 20 August 2023

(9) Consider a sample space S = E1 , E 2 , E3 , E4 , where P( E1 ) = P( E 4 ) = 0.3 and


P( E2 ) = P( E3 ) = 0.2 . Define the events:
A= E1 , E 2 
B= E2 , E3 
C= E3 , E4 
Which of the following pairs of events are independent? Explain.
i) A and B
ii) B and C
iii) A and C

(10) Suppose we have the following joint probabilities.


A1 A2 A3
B1 0.15 0.20 0.10
B2 0.25 0.25 0.05

a) Calculate the marginal probabilities.


b) Calculate P( A2 | B2 )
c) Calculate P( B2 | A2 )
d) Calculate P( B1 | A2 )
e) Calculate P( A1 or A2 )
f) Calculate P ( A2 or B2 )
g) Calculate P(A3 or B1 )

(11) A personal manager of a manufacturing company has cross-classified the 400 employees of his
company according to their record of absenteeism last year and whether or not they were smokers, as
shown in the following table:

Number of days absent Smoker Non-smoker


Less than 10 34 260
10 or more 78 28

One of these employees is selected at random.


a) What is the probability that the employee selected was a non-smoker?
b) What is the probability that the employee selected was absent for 10 or more days?
c) Are the events ‘non-smoker’ and ‘absent fewer than 10 days’ mutually exclusive? Explain.
d) Determine whether an employee’s being absent for 10 or more days last year was independent of
whether the employee was a smoker.
e) What is the probability that the employee selected was absent for fewer than 10 days given that
the employee is a smoker?
f) What is the probability that the employee selected was absent for fewer than 10 days given that
the employee does not smoke?

Page 4 of 5
Lecturer: Prof. Ruwan Jayathilaka
BM6040 Managerial Decision Analysis
Assignment 1 (Probability Theory) Due: 20 August 2023

(12) Let P( A) = 0.3 , P( B | A) = 0.1 and P( B | A ) = 0.2 . Use a probability tree to find P ( A | B ) and
P( A | B ) .

(13) Let P( A) = 0.6 , P ( B | A) = 0.2 and P( B | A ) = 0.3 . Use a probability tree to find P ( A | B ) and
P( A | B )

(14) Let P( A ) = 0.4 , P( B | A) = 0.5 and P( B | A ) = 0.6 . Use a probability tree to find P( A | B) and
P( A | B )

(15) Your favorite team is in the grand final. You have assigned a probability of 60% that they will win the
championship. Past records indicate that when teams win the championship, they win the first game
of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the series, they win the first game 25% of the time. The
first game is over; your team has lost. What is the probability that they will win the championship?

(16) Bad gums may be evidence of a bad heart. Researchers have discovered that 85% of people who have
suffered a heart attack had periodontal disease, an inflammation of the gums. Only 29% of healthy
people have this disease.

a) Suppose that in a certain community, heart attacks are quite rare, occurring with only 10%
probability. If someone has periodontal disease, what is the probability that he or she will have a
heart attack?
b) If 40% of the people in a community will have a heart attack, what is the probability that a
person with periodontal disease in this community will have a heart attack?

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