Review Exercise 1

1 a X ~ B(200, 0.02)
E(X) = np = 200 × 0.02 = 4
Var(X) = np(1 – p) = 200 × 0.02 × 0.98 = 3.92

b Because n is large and p is small.

c X ~ B(200, 0.02)
Y ~ Po(4)
e −4 40 e −4 41 e −4 42 e −4 43 e −4 44 e −4 45
P (Y < 6 ) = + + + + +
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
4 4 4 4 4 4 
0 1 2 3 4 5
= e −4  + + + + + 
 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 
= 0.785 (3 s.f.)

2 a X ~ B(20, 0.2)

b P(5 < X ≤ 11) = P(X ≤ 11) − P(X < 5)

= 0.9999 − 0.6296
= 0.370 (3 s.f.)

c P(X ≥ 12) = 1 − P(X < 12)

= 1 – 0.998…
= 0.0001017
Bonus received = 0.370 × 1000 + 0.0001017 × 2000
= $370.20

3 For X ~ B(15, 0.32), using calculator or tables:

a P(X = 7) = 0.101 (3 s.f.)

b P(X  4) = 0.448 (3 s.f.)

c P(X < 8) = P(X  7) = 0.929 (3 s.f.)

d P(X > 6) = 1− P(X  5) = 1 – 0.6607 = 0.339 (3 s.f.)

4 a Let the random variable X denote the number of accidents per week on the stretch of motorway.
The term ‘rate’ used in the question indicates that a Poisson distribution would be a suitable
model, so X ~ Po(1.5)

e −1.5 1.52
b P(X= 2)
= = 0.2510 (4 d.p.)
2!
Note that as X is a discrete variable, P( X= 2)= P(X  2) − P(X  1) and can therefore be
calculated using the tables:
P( X= 2)= P(X  = 2) − P(X  1) 0.8088
= – 0.5578 0.2510

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4 c P( X 1) = 1 − P( X ==
0) 1 − 0.2231 = 0.7769 (from the tables)
P(at least one accident per week for 3 weeks) = P( X  1) × P( X  1) × P( X  1)
3
= 0.7760
= 0.4689

d Let the random variable Y denote the number of accidents in a two-week period on the stretch of
motorway, so Y ~ Po(3)
From the tables
P(Y > 4) =1 − P(Y  4) =1 − 0.8153 =0.1847

5 a There is no context stated, but a Poisson distribution requires an event to occur. For a Poisson
distribution to be a suitable model, events should occur at a constant rate; they should occur
independently or randomly; and they should occur singly.

b Let the random variable X denote the number of cars passing the point in a 60-minute period, so
X ~ Po(6)
e −6 64
i P(X= 4)
= = 0.1339 (4 d.p.)
4!
Note that as X is a discrete variable, P( X= 4)= P(X  4) − P(X  3) and can therefore be
calculated using the tables:
P( X= 4)= P(X = 4) − P(X  3) 0.2851
= – 0.1512 0.1339

ii P( X  5) = 1 − P( X  4)
= 1 − 0.2851
= 0.7149
= 0.715 (3 s.f.)

c Let the random variable Y denote the number of cars and other vehicles passing the observation
point in a 10-minute period. On average 2 other vehicles (12 ÷ 6) pass the point so Y ~ Po(1 + 2),
i.e. Y ~ Po(3)
P(Y= 1)= 3e −3= 0.1494 (4 d.p.)

Alternatively, let the random variable Z denote the number of other vehicles passing the
observation point in a 10-minute period, so Z ~ Po(2)
P(1 car and 0 other) + P(0 car and 1 other) =P( X = 1) P( Z =0) + P( X =0) P( Z =
1)
= e −1× e −2 + e −1× 2 e −2
= 0.3679 × 0.1353 + 0.3679 × 0.2707
= 0.1494 (4 d.p.)

6 a Let the random variable X denote the number of lawn-mowers hired out by Quikmow in a
one-hour period, so X ~ Po(1.5) ; and let the random variable Y denote the number of
lawn-mowers hired out by Easitrim in a one-hour period, so Y ~ Po(2.2)
As the variables are independent P(( X =1) ∩ (Y =1)) =P( X =1) × P(Y =1)
e −1.5 1.51 e −2.2 2.21
P( X =×
1) P(Y =
1) = × =0.3347 × 0.2438 =0.0816 (4 d.p.)
1! 1!

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6 b Let the random variable Z denote the number of lawn-mowers hired out by Quikmow and
Easitrim in a one-hour period, so Z ~ Po(1.5 + 2.2), i.e. Z ~ Po(3.7)
e −3.7 3.7 4
P( Z= 4)
= = 0.1931 (4 d.p.)
4!

c Let the random variable M denote the number of lawn-mowers hired out by Quikmow and
Easitrim in a three-hour period, so M ~ Po(3 × 3.7), i.e. M ~ Po(11.1)
By calculator P( M =< 12) P( M =  11) 0.5673 (4 d.p.)

∑ x 290
7 a Mean= x= = = 1.45
n 200
∑ x2 702
Variance = − ( x )2 = − 2.1025 = 1.4075
n 200

b The fact that the mean is close to the variance supports the use of a Poisson distribution.

c Let the random variable X denote the number of toys in a cereal box and use the model,
X  Po(1.45)
By calculator P( X  2) =1 − P( X  1) =
1 − 0.5747 = 0.4253 (4 d.p.)

8 a Let X be the number of faulty cameras.

X ~ B(1000, 0.006)
Using a Poisson approximation
Y ~ Po(6)
P(Y > 8) = 1− P(Y ≤ 8)
= 1− 0.8472
= 0.1528

b P(X > t) ≥ 2p
P(X > t) ≥ 0.3056
P(X > 7) = 0.2560
P(X > 6) = 0.3937
So t = 6

9 a Events should occur independently, in a single manner, in space or time, at a constant average rate
so that the mean number in an interval is proportional to the length of the interval.

b i Let X be the number of flaws per metre.

X ~ Po(6)
e −6 60
P ( X= 0=)
0!
= 0.00248

ii Let X be the number of flaws per metre

X ~ Po(0.6)
P ( X ≥ 2 ) =−
1 P ( X < 2)
 e −0.6 0.60 e −0.6 0.61 
1− 
= + 
 0! 1! 
= 1 − 0.878
= 0.122
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10 a If X  B(n, p ) and n is large and p is small, then X can be approximated by Po(np).

b P(2 consecutive calls connected to wrong agent) = 0.01× 0.01 = 0.0001

c Let the random variable X denote the number of calls wrongly connected in 5 consecutive
calls, so X ~ B(5, 0.01)
5 5
P( X > 1) =1 − P( X =1) − P( X =0) =1 −   (0.01)(0.99) 4 −   (0.01)0 (0.99)5
1  0
=1 − 0.04803 − 0.95099 = 0.00098 (5 d.p.)

d Let the random variable Y denoted the number of calls wrongly connected in a day, so
Y ~ B(1000, 0.01)
Mean =Y =np =10 Variance =np (1 − p ) =10 × 0.99 =9.9

e Approximate the binomial distribution using X  Po(np ), i.e. X  Po(10), and use tables
Po( X > 6) =1 − Po( X  6) =1 − 0.1301 =0.8699 =0.870 (3 d.p.)

3 147
11 a P( X= 3)=   (0.02) (0.98) = 0.2263 (4 d.p.)
 150 
 3 
 

b λ =np =150 × 0.02 =3

The Poisson approximation is justified in this case because n is large and p is small.

12 a X  B(200, 0.015)

4 196
b P( X= 4)
=   (0.015) (0.985) = 0.1693 (4 d.p.)
 200 
 4 
 

c If X  B(n, p ) and n is large and p is small, then X can be approximated by Po(np), so in

this case X ≈  Po(200 × 0.015), i.e. X ≈  Po(3)

e −3 34
d P( X= 4)
= = 0.1680 (4 d.p.)
4!
The percentage
= error 0.1693 − 0.1680
= ×100 0.77%
0.1693

13 X ~ B(200, 0.01)
Using a Poisson approximation,
Y ~ Po(2)
P(1 < Y < 5) = P(Y < 5) − P(Y < 2)
= 0.9473 – 0.4060
= 0.5413

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14 Let X be the number of delayed trains.
X ~ Po(70)
Y ~ N(70, 70)
P (Y < 75 ) = P (Y < 74.5 ) (apply a continuity correction)
 74.5 − 70 
P (Y < 74.5 ) =P  Z < 
 70 
= P ( Z < 0.5379 )
= 0.7047

15 Let X be the number of questions answered correctly.

X ~ B(100,0.2)
Using a Poisson approximation,
Y ~ Po(20)
P(Y < 19) = 0.3814

16 a The area under the probability distribution function curve must equal to 1, so:
2
∫0
k (4 x − x3 )dx =
1
2
 1 
⇒ k 2 x2 − x4  =
1
 4 0
⇒ k (8 − 4) =1
⇒ 4k = 1
1
⇒k =
4

b Between (0, 0) and (0, 2), the function is a cubic equation with negative x3 coefficient.
In this region the function is positive, with a local maximum. (The value of x where this local
maximum occurs is found in part d.)

∞ 2 1
c E( X ) =∫ x f( x)dx =∫ x × (4 x − x3 )dx
−∞ 0 4
2
1 1 5  8 32 160 − 96 64 16
= x 3 − x = − = = = =1.07 (3 s.f.)
3 20  0 3 20 60 60 15

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16 d The mode is the value of x at the maximum of f(x), i.e. the highest point of the graph.
3
At the mode f ′( x)= 0, so 1 − x 2= 0
4
4 2 2 3
⇒ x= = = = 1.15 (3 s.f.)
3 3 3

e Find the cumulative distribution function, F(x):

x
x 1 3 1 2 1 4  1 1
F( x) =∫0 4t − t d t = 2 t − t 
16  0 2
= x2 − x4
16
for 0x2, and F( x) =0 otherwise

Let m be the median, then F(m) = 0.5. This gives:

1 2 1 4 1
m − m = ⇒ m 4 − 8m 2 + 8 = 0
2 16 2
8 ± 64 − 32
⇒ m2 = =4 ± 8, so m 2 =4 − 8 as 0m 24
2
⇒m
= 1.1715
=  1.08 (3 s.f.)

17 a The area under the probability distribution function curve must equal 1, so:
3
∫2
kx( x − 2)dx =
1
3
1 
⇒ k  x3 − x 2  = 1
3 2
 8 
⇒ k 9 − 9 − + 4 = 1
 3 
4
⇒ k= 1
3
3
⇒k =
4

∞
b Using E( X 2 ) = ∫ x 2 f ( x)dx gives:
−∞
3
3 3 3 3 4 3 1 5 1 4 
E( X )= ∫ x3 ( x − 2)dx=
2
∫ ( x − 2 x 3 )dx= x − x 
2 4 4 2 4  5 2 2
3  243 81 32 16  3  211 65  3 (422 − 325) 291
=  − − + =  − = × =
4 5 2 5 2  4 5 2  4 10 40
2
291  43 
2 291 1849
2
So Var( X ) =E( X ) − (E( X )) = −   = −
40  16  40 256
1  291 1849  1  9312 − 9245  67 67
=  − =  = = =0.0523 (3 s.f.)
8 5 32  8  160  8 ×160 1280

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 x
x 3 2 3  1 
17 c F( x)= ∫
2 4
(t − 2t )dt=   t 3 − t 2  
4  3  2
31  31  1 3
=   x 3 − x 2  −  × 23 − 2 2  =
 ( x − 3 x 2 + 4)
43  43  4

 0 x<2
1

)  ( x3 − 3 x 2 + 4) 2x3
So F( x=
4
 1 x>3

1
d F(2.70)
= (2.73 − 3 × 2.7 2 =
+ 4) 0.453 (3 s.f.)
4
1
F(2.75)
= (2.753 − 3 × 2.75= 2
+ 4) 0.527 (3 s.f.)
4
So F(2.70) < 0.5 < F(2.75)
As F(m) = 0.5, therefore the median lies between 2.70 and 2.75.

18 a Find the probability density function by differentiating: F1′ ( y= ) f1 ( y=

) 13 − 8 y
If f1 ( y ) is a probability density function, f1 ( y )0 on the interval 1y2
13
But f1 ( y ) < 0 when y > , so f1 ( y ) < 0 when 1.625 < y2
8
So f1 is not a probability density function and therefore F1 cannot be a cumulative distribution
function.

b F2(2) = 1, so k(24 + 22 – 2) = 1
1
⇒ 18k =1 ⇒ k =
18

1
1 − P(Y 1.5) =
c P(Y > 1.5) = 1 − F2 (1.5) =
1− (1.54 + 1.52 − 2)
18
1  81 9  1  81 + 36 − 32  85 203
=1 −  + − 2  =1 −   =1 − = =0.705 (3 s.f.)
18  16 4  18  16  288 288

dF2 ( y ) 1 d 4 1 1
d f 2 (=
y) = ( y + y 2 −=2) (4 y 3 + 2=
y) (2 y 3 + y )
dy 18 dy 18 9
Hence f 2 ( y ) = 
 1 (2 y 3 + y ) 1y2
 9

0 otherwise

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19 a Between (2, 0) and (3, 2), f(x) is a straight line. For x < 2 and x > 3, f(x) = 0. The graph is:

b The mode is the value of x at the maximum of f(x), i.e. the highest point of the graph.
So, in this case, the mode is 3.

∞
c Using E( X 2 ) = ∫ x 2 f ( x)dx gives:
−∞
3
3 3 1 4 
E( X ) = ∫ 2 x ( x − 2)dx = ∫ (2 x − 4 x )dx =  x 4 − x3 
2 2 3 2
2 2
2 3 2
81 32 32 7 64 21 43
= − 36 − 8 + = − = − =
2 3 3 2 6 6 6
2
43  8  43 64 129 128 1
So Var( X ) = E( X 2 ) − (E( X )) 2 = −  = − = − = = 0.0556 (3 s.f.)
6 3 6 9 18 18 18

m m
d F(m) =
2 ∫
2( x − 2)dx =  x 2 − 4 x  = m 2 − 4m − (4 − 8) = m 2 − 4m + 4
2

As F(m) = 0.5, this gives m − 4m + 4 = 0.5 ⇒ 2m 2 − 8m + 7 = 0

2

8 ± 64 − 56 4 ± 2
=So m =
4 4
4− 2 4+ 2
As < 2, it is outside the range, so m = 2.71 (3 s.f.)
=
4 4

20 a Between (0, 0) and (3, 0.5), f(x) is a straight line with a positive gradient; between (3, 0.5) and
(4, 0), f(x) is a straight line with a negative gradient; and for x < 0 and x > 4, f(x) = 0.
The graph is:

b The mode is the value of x at the maximum of f(x), i.e. the highest point of the graph.
So, in this case, the mode is 3.

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20 c For 0x < 3
x 1 1 2
F( x)
= ∫=
06
t dt
12
x
For 3x4
x 1 31  1   1  1 1
F( x) = ∫
3
(2 − t ) dt + ∫ t dt =  2 x − x 2  −  2 × 3 − × 32  + × 32 = 2 x − x 2 − 3
2 0 6
 4   4  12 4

F( x) = 
 0 x<0
 1 2
 x 0x < 3
 12
 1 2
2 x − 4 x − 3 3x4

 1 x>4

9
d F(3)
= = 0.75. As F(3) > 0.5, the median must be between 0 and 3.
12
1 2
So =
F(m) = m 0.5
12
⇒ m 2 =6 ⇒ m = 6 =2.45 (3 s.f.)

e From part d, P10 lies in 0 ⩽ x < 3 and P9 lies in 3 ⩽ x ⩽ 4

1 2 9
=F(P90 ) 0.9, so 2 P90 −= P90 − 3
4 10
2
⇒ 5 P90 − 40 P90 + 78 =0
40 ± 1600 − 1560 40 ± 40
⇒ P90 = = =4 ± 0.4
10 10
As 4 + 0.4 > 4 and outside the range, P90 =
4 − 0.4 =
3.36754
1 2
=F(P10 ) 0.1,
= so P10 0.1
12
⇒ P102 = 1.2 ⇒ P10 = 1.09544
So P90 − P10 =
3.36754 − 1.09544 =
2.27 (3 s.f.)

21 a P( X > 0.3) =1 − P( X 0.3) =1 − F(0.3) =1 − (2 × 0.32 − 0.33 ) =0.847

b F(0.59) =2 × (0.59) 2 − (0.59)3 =0.491 (3 s.f.)

2 3
F(0.60) =2 × (0.6) − (0.6) = 0.504
So F(0.59) < 0.5 < F(0.60)
As F(m) = 0.5, therefore the median lies between 0.59 and 0.60.

dF( x) d
c f ( x) = = (2 x 2 − x3 ) = 4 x − 3 x 2 for 0x1
dx dx
f ( x) = 
4 x − 3x 2 0x1

 0 otherwise

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 1
1 1  x3 x4  7
∫0 ∫0
2 3
21 d E( X ) = x f ( x )dx = (4 x − 3 x )dx = 4
 3 − 3  == 0.583 (3 s.f.)
 4  0 12

e To find the mode, solve f ′( x) = 0

df ( x) df ( x) 2
= 4 − 6 x, so = 0 ⇒ x = = 0.667 (3 s.f.)
dx dx 3

22 a The area under the probability distribution function curve must equal 1, so:
2 4k
∫0 k d x + ∫2 x dx =
1

⇒ [ kx ]0 + [ k ln x ]2 =
2 4
1
⇒ 2k + k (ln 4 − ln 2) =
1
⇒ 2k + k ln 2 =
1
1
⇒k =
2 + ln 2

∞ 1 2 1 4
b E( X )
=
−∞ ∫= 2 + ln 2 ∫0
x f( x)dx x dx +
2 + ln 2 ∫2
1dx
2
1 1 2  1 1
[ ]
4
= x + = x (2 + 4 − 2)
2 + ln 2  2  0 2 + ln 2 2 2 + ln 2
4
= = 1.49 (3 s.f.)
2 + ln 2

23 a

P(X > 7) = F(10) – F(7)

16
= 1−
49
33
=
49

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 P ( X > 8) ∩ P ( 4 < X < 9 )
23 b P(X > 8) | P(4 < X < 9) =
P ( 4 < X < 9)
P (8 < X < 9 )
=
P ( 4 < X < 9)
P(4 < X < 9) = F(9) – F(4)
36 1
= −
49 49
35
=
49
P(8 < X < 9) = 1 – F(8)
36 25
= −
49 49
11
=
49
11
P ( 8 < X < 9 ) 49 11
= =
P ( 4 < X < 9 ) 35 35
49

1
f ( x ) F'
c = = ( x) ( 2x − 6)
49
∞
E ( X ) = ∫ xf ( x )
0
10
1
x ( 2 x − 6 ) dx
49 ∫3
=

10
1
=
49 ∫3
( 2 x 2 − 6 x ) dx
10
1 2 3 
=  x − 3x 2 
49  3 3
1  2 2 2 2 
 (10 ) − 3 (10 )  −  ( 3) − 3 ( 3)  
3 3
= 
49  3  3 
1  1100 
=  + 9
49  3 
23
=
3

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 5 7
1
24 a ∫
148 1
( x 2 + 2 ) dx + k ∫ ( 3 x − 5 ) d x =
1
5
5 7
1 1 3  3 
 x + 2 x + k  x2 − 5x = 1
148  3 1  2 5
1  1 3  1 3   3 2  3 2 
  ( 5 ) + 2 ( 5 )  −  (1) + 2 (1)   + k  ( 7 ) − 5 ( 7 )  −  ( 5 ) − 5 ( 5 )   =
1
148  3  3   2  2 
1  155 7    77 25  
  −   + k  −   = 1
148  3 3    2 2 
1
+ 26k = 1
3
2
26k =
3
1
k= as required
39

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24 b For x ≤ 1, F(x) = 0
For 1 ≤ x ≤ 5:
5
1
= f ( x)
148 ∫1
( x 2 + 2 ) dx
1 1 3 
F( x)
=  x + 2x + c 
148  3 
When x = 1, F(x) = 1:
1 1 3 
F (1)
0 ==  (1) + 2(1) + c 
148  3 
1 7 
=  + c
148  3 
7
c= −
444
1
=
444
( x3 + 6 x − 7 ) 1≤ x < 5

For 5 ≤ x ≤ 7:
7
1
f ( x) ( 3 x − 5 ) dx
39 ∫5
=

1 3 2 
( x)
F=  x − 5x + d 
39  2 

When x = 7, F(x) = 1:

1 3 2 
(7)
1 = F=  (7) − 5(7) + d 
39  2 
1  77 
=  +d
39  2 
1
d=
2
1
=
78
( 3 x 2 − 10 x + 1) 5≤ x≤7

F(x) = 1 x>7

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 1
( x)
24 c F =
444
( x3 + 6 x − 7 ) has area

F (=
x)
1
444
(
( 5) + 6 ( 5) − 7
3
)
1
=
3
Therefore the median lies in the interval 5 ≤ x ≤ 7 so

1 1
78
( 3 x 2 − 10 x + 1) =
2

3 x 2 − 10 x − 38 =
0
( −10 ) − 4 ( 3)( −38 )
2
10 ±
x=
2 ( 3)
10 ± 2 139
=
6
5 ± 139
=
3
Since x must be positive
5 + 139
x=
3

d By similar reasoning to part c,

1 4
78
(3 x 2 − 10 x + 1 =
5
)
5 ( 3 x − 10 x + 1) =
2
312
15 x 2 − 50 x − 307 =
0
( −50 ) − 4 (15 )( −307 )
2
50 ±
x=
2 (15 )
50 ± 20920
=
30
Since x must be positive
25 + 5230
x=
15

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Challenge
a The area under the probability distribution function curve must equal 1, so:
∞ ∞
∫
0
ke − x dx = k  −e − x  = k (0 − (−1)) = k ⇒ k = 1
0

x x
b ∫
0
e − t dt = −e − t  =−e − x − (−1) =1 − e − x
0

F( x) = 
0 x<0

1 − e
−x
x0

c P(1 < X < 4)= P( X < 4) − P( X < 1)= F(4) − F(1)

e3 − 1
= (1 − e −4 ) − (1 − e −1 ) = e −1 − e −4 =
e4

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