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Activity 8

1. The document describes an activity to explain conditional probability through throwing a pair of dice. 2. A board is divided into 36 squares with all possible dice outcomes written in. The conditional probability P(A|B) of getting a double 4, given that a 4 appeared on one die, is calculated. 3. P(A|B) is found to be 1/11, by taking the number of outcomes favorable to both A and B (1 square) over the total outcomes favorable to B (11 squares where a 4 appeared on one die).

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163 views3 pages

Activity 8

1. The document describes an activity to explain conditional probability through throwing a pair of dice. 2. A board is divided into 36 squares with all possible dice outcomes written in. The conditional probability P(A|B) of getting a double 4, given that a 4 appeared on one die, is calculated. 3. P(A|B) is found to be 1/11, by taking the number of outcomes favorable to both A and B (1 square) over the total outcomes favorable to B (11 squares where a 4 appeared on one die).

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Activity 27

OBJECTIVE MATERIAL REQUIRED


To explain the computation of
conditional probability of a given
event A, when event B has METHOD OF CONSTRUCTION
already occurred, through an A piece of plywood, white paper
example of throwing a pair of pen/pencil, scale, a pair of dice.
dice.

1. Paste a white paper on a piece of plywood of a convenient size.


2. Make a square and divide it into 36 unit squares of size 1cm each (see Fig.
27).
3. Write pair of numbers as shown in the figure.

Fig. 27
24/04/18
DEMONSTRATION
1. Fig. 27 gives all possible outcomes of the given experiment. Hence, it
represents the sample space of the experiment.
2. Suppose we have to find the conditional probability of an event A if an
event B has already occurred, where A is the event “a number 4 appears on
both the dice” and B is the event "4 has appeared on at least one of the
dice”i.e, we have to find P(A | B).
3. From Fig. 27 number of outcomes favourable to A = 1
Number of outcomes favourable to B = 11
Number of outcomes favourable to A ∩ B = 1.
10 when a doublet has
11 , already occurred.
4. (i) P (B) = 36
2. Conditional probability P
(A | B) can also be found by
1
(ii) P (A ∩ Β) = 36 first taking the sample space
of event B out of the sample
space of the
P(A B)
(iii) P (A | B) =
∩
1 .
= 11
OBSERVATION
NOTE P(B)
1. You may repeat this
experiment, and then finding
activity by taking more
the probability A from it.
events such as the
probability of getting a sum

1. Outcome(s) favourable to A : _________, n (A) = _________. 2.


Outcomes favourable to B : _________, n (B) = _________. 3.
Outcomes favourable to A ∩ B : _________, n (A ∩ B) =
_________. 4. P (A ∩ B) = _________.
5. P (A | B) = _________ = _________.

APPLICATION
This activity is helpful in understanding the concept of conditional
probability, which is further used in Bayes’ theorem.

Mathematics 175 24/04/18

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