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    System Reliability1 2023

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    Karma Thinley
    This document discusses power system reliability through probabilistic analysis of component failures. It provides examples of calculating system reliability for series and parallel systems using basic probability theories like conditional probability and independence. For a series system with a motor and pump, the system reliability is the product of their individual success probabilities. For a parallel redundant system, the system failure probability is the product of individual failure probabilities. More complex systems can be analyzed by breaking them into components and determining the success/failure probabilities based on the configuration and states of other components.

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    System Reliability1 2023

    Uploaded by

    Karma Thinley
    16 views9 pages
    This document discusses power system reliability through probabilistic analysis of component failures. It provides examples of calculating system reliability for series and parallel systems using basic probability theories like conditional probability and independence. For a series system with a motor and pump, the system reliability is the product of their individual success probabilities. For a parallel redundant system, the system failure probability is the product of individual failure probabilities. More complex systems can be analyzed by breaking them into components and determining the success/failure probabilities based on the configuration and states of other components.

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    This document discusses power system reliability through probabilistic analysis of component failures. It provides examples of calculating system reliability for series and parallel systems using basic probability theories like conditional probability and independence. For a series system with a motor and pump, the system reliability is the product of their individual success probabilities. For a parallel redundant system, the system failure probability is the product of individual failure probabilities. More complex systems can be analyzed by breaking them into components and determining the success/failure probabilities based on the configuration and states of other components.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    16 views9 pages

    System Reliability1 2023

    Uploaded by

    Karma Thinley
    This document discusses power system reliability through probabilistic analysis of component failures. It provides examples of calculating system reliability for series and parallel systems using basic probability theories like conditional probability and independence. For a series system with a motor and pump, the system reliability is the product of their individual success probabilities. For a parallel redundant system, the system failure probability is the product of individual failure probabilities. More complex systems can be analyzed by breaking them into components and determining the success/failure probabilities based on the configuration and states of other components.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 9

    Power System Reliability

    Risk Analysis
    Conditional events
    &
    System Reliability
    By:
    Ghavam Nourbakhsh

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Power System

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Power Transformer

    High Voltage Circuit Breaker

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Power System Reliability
    • The primary function of an electric power system is
    to provide electrical energy to its customers as
    economically as possible and with an acceptable
    degree of continuity and quality.

    • In general; ‘reliability’ is the overall ability of a


    system to perform its function, adequately(sufficient
    facilities) and with security(respond to dynamic and
    transient disturbances arising within the system).

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Basic Probability Theories
    Example (series system)
    The probability of motor M and pump P being in operating state are; 0.9
    and 0.8 respectively. What is the system probability of success (reliability),
    given that these events are independent.

    M P

    P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (A & B are independent)

    P {system success} = 0.9 x 0.8 = 0.72

    In general, for series system:


    n
    P {system success} =
    ∏ Pi
    i =1
    where; Pi is the probability of ith component success.

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Basic Probability Theories
    Example (parallel system)
    P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) (A & B are independent)
    In the following parallel
    redundant system, 1
    component 1 and 2 have
    independent probability of
    failures 0.2 and 0.3,
    respectively. What is the 2
    probability of this system to
    operate successfully?
    P {system failure} = P(1 fail ∩ 2 fail) = P(1 fail) x P(2 fail) = 0.06
    P {system success} = 1 – P {system failure} = 0.94 given that only
    two system states exist.
    In general, for series system:
    n
    P {system failure} = ∏Q
    i =1
    i where; Qi is the probability of ith component failure.

    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Basic Probability Theories
    Application of Conditional Probability
    P(SM) SM : System Mode
    Example:

    Let’s Xi’s be two mutually exclusive events, i.e. system success (ss) and system
    failure (sf ).
    Consider the series system;
    M P

    P(ss) = P{ss|M is good} × PM + P{ss|M is bad} × QM


    = PP × PM + 0 × QM PM & QM are probabilities of
    = PP × PM Motor success and failure

    P(sf) = P{sf|M is good} × PM + P{sf|M is bad} × QM


    = QP × PM + 1 × QM
    PP & QP are probabilities of
    = QP × (1 – QM) + QM Pump success and failure
    = QP + QM – QpQM
    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Basic Probability Theories
    Application of Conditional Probability
    P(SM) SM : System Mode
    Example:
    Let’s Bi’s be two mutually exclusive events, i.e. system success (ss) and system
    failure (sf).
    1
    Consider the parallel redundant
    system;

    2
    P(ss) = P{ss|1 is good} × P1 + P{ss|1 is bad} × Q1
    = 1 × P1 + P2 × Q1 P1 & Q1 are probabilities of
    = P1 + P2(1 – P1) Comp1 success and failure
    = P1 + P2 – P1 P2

    P(sf) = P{sf|1 is good} × P1 + P{sf|1 is bad} × Q1


    P2 & Q2 are probabilities of
    = 0 × P1 + Q1Q2 Comp2 success and failure
    = Q1Q2
    Ghavam Nourbakhsh
    Basic Probability Theories
    Application of Conditional Probability
    Example on more complex system: A C

    E
    Consider the following system;
    B D
    E is good E is bad

    A C A C

    B D B D

    P(ss) = P{ss|E is good} × PE + P{ss|E is bad} × QE


    = {(1 – QAQB)(1 – QCQD)} × PE + {1 – (1 – PAPC)(1 – PBPD)} × QE
    If all components have the same probability of success as P,
    then;
    P(ss) = 2P2 + 2P3 – 5P4 + 2P5
    And if P = 0.99 then; P(ss) = 0.999798
    Ghavam Nourbakhsh

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